tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35276772197030792732024-03-13T14:16:22.473-05:00AL Central In FocusFocusing On The Only Teams That Matter.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.comBlogger460125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-48190193700029282742012-03-11T20:39:00.005-05:002012-03-12T16:33:45.430-05:00Player Profile: Salvador Perez<p class="MsoNormal">So <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7304&position=C">Salvador Perez</a> really is not a prospect anymore per se. He made his big league debut last year for the Kansas City Royals to relatively little fan fair and then signed a nice big contract extension recently this offseason. After arriving in the majors, he promptly hit .331 with a .361 wOBA in 158 PA. Obviously the low amount of plate appearances leaves little room for drawing conclusions about Perez’s ability. For instance, I can probably say pretty safely that he will not hit .331 or higher next season with more appearances. However, there is still plenty to like about the 21 year old catcher. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Even after a mini breakout in his 2010 minor league season, Perez still struggled for notoriety. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-30-prospects-the-kansas-city-royals/">He made it up to the 18<sup>th</sup> spot on Marc Hulet’s Kansas City Royals prospect rankings for 2011</a> but that was hardly awe inspiring even in a very deep Royals system. So his 2011 season both in the minors and majors may have caught more than one or two people by surprise. </p> <a name='more'></a> <p class="MsoNormal">Perez’s lack of attention prior to this past season is somewhat shocking. After all he is 6’3” 230 lbs. A big athletic frame alone is usually worth attention. It is worth even more attention when you consider that he has consistently rated as a high grade defensive catcher. It is worth even more attention when you consider the fact that instead of a long swing prone to strikeouts, Perez has a relatively compact swing with excellent contact ability. In fact, Perez’s 12.2% K rate (K/PA) in AAA before he arrived in the majors last year was his highest ever in the minor leagues. Perez manages strike outs very well and puts the ball in play even in the major leagues as seen by his 12.7% K against superior pitching. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">However, the ability to put the ball in play is not everything. Although his K rate is low, it is similar to players like <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1429&position=2B/3B/SS">Nick Punto</a> from this past season. Putting the ball in play only matters if you can at least occasionally drive the ball. That said, Salvador Perez is not Nick Punto. Litte Nicky is only 5’9” and is listed at 190 lbs although I suspect that is a slight exaggeration. Salvador’s frame alone gives high hope that his power could eventually catch up with his contact skills. Power is generally the last ‘tool’ to arrive for prospects and Perez has ample ceiling for a lot of it to come his way.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Due to his defense alone Perez has been compared favorably with <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7007&position=C">Yadier Molina</a>. Now Molina is one of the finest defensive catchers the game has seen; I would be amazed if Perez could reach the same level. In addition, to this point Yadier has limited his K’s better and walked more than Perez. However, Molina is only working with a 5’11” frame and perhaps not surprisingly, the power is just not there. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">With all of that said, Perez still has some question marks. Perez cannot take a walk. His 4.4% BB rate was abysmal and, unfortunately, it was right in line with his minor league production. Furthermore, Perez features an unflattering 1.42 GB/FB hit distribution albeit in a small sample in the majors. Despite his high LD rate last season, Perez had featured a BABIP around or below .300 for a number of stops in the minors. Despite his contact ability, if Perez is simply going to take defensive swings, not drive the ball, and put it on the ground, the power might never develop to its full potential and he may struggle to maintain a high batting average. In other words, his batted ball profile indicates he could feasibly bottom out as Molina type with a bit more power and a slightly better average. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">However, I like to think of Salvador in a bit more flattering light, perhaps because I just love the upside of players like him when they can already bring the glove. To be sure, this is his absolute ceiling in my opinion, but it was not long ago one could have said many of the same negatives about <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3269&position=2B">Robinson Cano</a>. Cano has never taken many walks. In his first full season, he walked less than Perez with a 2.9% BB rate in 2005. In addition, Cano also has a nasty habit of putting the ball on the ground a lot with a career 1.51 GB/FB ratio. Finally, Cano does feature great contact skills with a career 11.5% K rate. The difference between Cano and a guy like Molina is simply that Cano features a powerful 6’ frame from which he can generate ample bat speed to drive the ball with authority. In addition to having a career 19.7% LD rate, Cano also has plenty of extra base hits with a career .188 ISO. The margins are really just that small in the majors and a powerful frame can be the difference from an ok major league hitter to a great major league hitter. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Perez has displayed an ISO from .120 to .140 in the minors and that could very well increase in the majors as he ages. However, his batted ball profile is indicative of a guy with a lower than average LD rate and lower than average speed. The reality is, Perez probably has only a small chance of developing into a player of Cano’s caliber with the bat. However, I like the Molina comparisons. In fact, I think Perez stands a very good chance of developing into a more valuable player than Molina as a catcher with slightly inferior defense and a superior bat. </p>Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-83186044022925970552012-02-27T20:37:00.004-06:002012-02-27T20:50:46.846-06:00Fielder’s Fielding Impact on the TigersThe recent acquisition of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4613&position=1B">Prince Fielder</a> has many present and future implications for the Tigers. One of the primary topics of conversation that developed from that signing and the subsequent reassignment of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1744&position=1B/3B/OF">Miguel Cabrera</a> to 3b is the Tiger’s defense. The fair assumption that most have been making is that the change from Cabrera to Fielder at first base hurts the team defense, that the change from Inge/Kelly to Cabrera at 3b hurts the team defense, and that generally, the team defense is now inferior to where it was a year ago.<br /><br />Everyone seems to be expecting the worst with this change, specifically for <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9425&position=P">Doug Fister</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P">Rick Porcello</a>, two groundball heavy pitchers. I have heard the sentiment expressed that the Tigers now have three DHs (Cabrera, Fielder, and Young). Highly respected baseball people have wondered aloud just how long the Tigers can ‘survive’ with this arrangement. Many have suggested that Cabrera is very likely to not last at 3B over the course of the entire season. Is it really doom and gloom for the Tigers this season?<br /><a name='more'></a><br />First, Miguel Cabrera has been a -2.7 UZR/150 games at 1b since converting to that position with the Tigers. Meanwhile, over his career, Prince Fielder has been a -6.4 UZR/150 games player at first base over his career. This is probably the easiest position to analyze. Assuming Prince gets the vast majority of time at 1b, he is an obvious downgrade. However, while he is well below average he is only 3.7 runs different over 150 games than Miguel Cabrera. For some perspective distributed over those 150 games it amounts to a .024 runs per game difference.<br /><br />Third base is a bit more complicated. The last time Miguel Cabrera played 3b full time was 2007 for the Marlins. He did manage 14 games at 3b for the Tigers in 2008 and put in an abysmal display. However, that was an extremely small sample size. For his career Cabrera is a -4.5 UZR/150 fielder at 3b. That figure is certainly below average but a long way from so putrid that he would have to be moved off the position.<br /><br />The popular run estimator for Cabrera has been somewhere in the range of -15 to -25 UZR/150 games. That level of incompetence would make Cabrera the worst 3b fielder in the game among qualified 3b. Players such as Mark Reynolds, Wilson Betemit and Edwin Encarnacion clock in at minus 10-15 runs but averaging a solid -20 runs is fairly unheard of over a significant sample. Around 2007, when Cabrera was still playing 3b, he was about 260 lbs. The last few years estimations of his weight have risen to about 280 lbs if not a bit more. However, news of Cabrera’s weight loss this offseason has been widely disseminated. <a href="http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/388216_10150409362969562_43432614561_8497877_1393902892_n.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.detroittigersscorecard.com/hanley-ramirez-prefers-trade/&h=803&w=600&sz=90&tbnid=nddzlXaNE0-KgM:&tbnh=118&tbnw=88&zoom=1&docid=Te8cIIVXJHTx7M&hl=en&sa=X&ei=_j5MT_3eCaLs0gGI2vHxAg&ved=0CCsQ9QEwAQ&dur=288">In fact, he appeared looking very trim with Hanley Ramirez in January</a>. Reports have Cabrera at around 250-260 again with a lot more of that being in muscle mass than in 2007.<br /><br />Now it would be too easy to say, ‘Hey look Miguel is in shape, therefore he must be the same at 3b as in 2007’. In this case, because it has been a handful of years since Miguel played third, a tougher position on the defensive spectrum, one would have to assume that he probably will not be as capable as he was in 2007 even if he is in shape. That said, the Tigers have apparently been ‘thrilled’ with his work there so far. Take that with a grain of salt but believe what your eyes tell you. Miguel is in shape this spring training, there’s not much question about that. He has impressed his coaches so far and he was never really as ‘bad’ defensively as people like to suggest when he did play the position. To be sure below average is not the same thing as intolerable.<br /><br />It is reasonable to assume Miguel will be even more below average than he once was, but -10 to -15 runs is far reasonable than anything above -15 UZR/150 as a true defensive value. That may be bad but it is substantially better than <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2218&position=OF">Ryan Raburn</a> at 2b (-23.8 UZR/150 career) and only, at worst, as bad as <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2140&position=OF">Delmon Young</a> in LF (-14 UZR/150 career).<br /><br />Further we have to also consider who Miguel is replacing. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=470&position=C/3B">Brandon Inge</a> saw over 100 games at the position in 2011 where he posted a 3.3 UZR/150 (5.6 UZR/150 career, I will use the more recent UZR’s around 3 here because he has steadily declined since 2006 with age and lingering knee problems). Even with declining athleticism Inge is still an above average defender at the hot corner. However, the Tigers also saw 40 games of Wilson Betemit (-14 UZR/150 career at 3b) and a few games of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2216&position=OF">Don Kelly</a> (7 UZR/150 career in limited time). Bringing them all together the Tigers probably received close to -.75ish UZR/150 out of the position thanks to Betemit’s awful 40 games. So the net difference is likely to be between -9 and -14 runs.<br /><br />Of course Miguel and/or Prince both figure to see time at DH. However, the bigger issue for the Tigers just might be the significant time both Young and Raburn (at 2b specifically) see in the field. Young saw almost 40 games in LF last year for the Tigers and that number figures to increase. Similarly because of Young’s presence Raburn might see a heavier load at 2b than the 50+ games he saw last season. Raburn is actually an above average LF (6.8 UZR/150 career in a decent sample) and so the loss from him to Young could be substantial if Young does not see significant time at DH. The Tigers could feasibly go from 0-2 UZR/150 in LF to -10 UZR netting a max difference of -12. Similarly if <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1417&position=2B/SS">Ramon Santiago</a> sees less playing time than his 75 games last season (roughly a 4 UZR/150 player regressing his last four years and excluding his major outlier in 2003). Just a 35 game swing from Raburn to Santiago would equate to a 5 run loss. This arrangement on the whole could net a -17 differential.<br /><br />That said, I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which the Tigers will not use one of Fielder/Cabrera/Young/Raburn at dh thus minimizing this damage. Young is probably the best candidate for DH because you do not sacrifice a bat (Raburn is the replacement in LF v. Inge at 3b) and he is probably just as poor as Cabrera at his main position. Either way, because Young and Cabrera have roughly equal liability in the field and Raburn and Inge offer similar upgrades in the field, the difference can probably be safely halved overall from about -21 to -26 runs to -8 to -13 runs total.<br /><br />The expectation of run loss at that point becomes roughly -13 – 3.7 (Cabrera to Fielder) – 5 (Santiago to Raburn) or almost -22 runs of difference in total. The Tigers can and will survive that difference (about .125 runs per 9 innings). Further Tigers pitchers will survive that total. Doug Fister and Rick Porcello should survive the Tigers defense. Even assuming that the infield defense will affect them more, the impact should not be more than about .25 in ERA.<br /><br />Finally, this scenario in my opinion considers the probable worst case. It is certainly possible that Cabrera is merely below average at 3b rather than terrible. It is also possible the team decides to play Delmon Young at DH the vast majority of the time. The Tigers certainly will not ‘wow’ fans with their fielding but the impact of the Fielder signing on their defense is probably overstated.Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-82791471553344097382012-02-27T01:08:00.004-06:002012-02-27T01:14:15.414-06:00Jacob Turner and the Tiger's Aggressive Approach<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 100%; ">Recently, the current group of management with the Detroit Tigers has been given a reputation of rushing pitchers to the major leagues. This reputation seems to have been largely garnered on the back of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P">Rick Porcello</a>’s early debut several years ago and is being continued with the possible aggressive promotion of Jacob Turner. As a statistician, this label seems to be more than a little unfair. After all, rarely would I take two specific cases and extrapolate that into a ‘theme’ being displayed by a front office.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">It is hard to argue that Rick Porcello was not ‘rushed’. He was dominant in his one full season in the minors in his first year in pro ball straight out of high school and saw full time major league action the very next year. However, his first year was high A ball, and he only threw 125 innings, and he averaged just over 5 k/9, and you get the point. Rick was highly talented compared to other A ballers, compared to other 19 year olds, but not really compared to major leaguers. He had a solid low 90’s four seam fastball, sinker, a slow looping curve and change up at 19, and about 4 years later he basically is the same pitcher with a par slider added to the mix. Porcello was a good prospect to be sure but it’s hard to imagine a guy who strikes out only 5 guys per nine inning in high A obtaining any kind of immediate or even long term success in the majors without seeing more at some point. </p> <a name='more'></a> <p class="MsoNormal">Porcello is a bit of a unique case. In particular, I did not necessarily think the Tigers were ‘rushing’ him to the majors despite his low probability for immediate success. After all, he had already largely mastered a sinker, he had a developed, if underwhelming, curve ball and change up. People tend to get caught up on age but at 19, Porcello was very polished. He could throw strikes with all of his pitches; the only real issue was that, as a whole, his arsenal just did not have the quality. As a result, I had a hard time believing that sending Porcello to the majors that early really hurt him at all, even now with largely stagnant results. If he was going to become a top notch pitcher, it was always going to be based upon an increase in velocity by filling out his large frame coupled with sharper breaking pitches. Would the minors have been preferable? Probably, they foster an atmosphere of development over the win now attitude of the majors, but it is hard to imagine it would have made much of a difference in Porcello’s case. He has enough control with all of his pitches to have thrown them with consistency at either level. </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10185&position=P">Jacob Turner</a> is a bit different. First he throws a bit harder. Two MPH might not seem like much but the difference between 90 and 92 in the majors can be substantial. Like Porcello, Turner is blessed with a big frame and an ability to pound the strike zone with his fastball. He has an easy delivery and can also spot a cut fastball which offers more inside run to lefties. He also has a slower curve sitting at roughly 79 mph which has 12-6 break and can freeze opposing batters. The change up is a show me pitch at this point but it has potential. The biggest issue with Turner is his inconsistency with his off speed command and control. He can and will abandon those pitches in a game if he cannot get them to work for him because he can simply rely on an above average fastball that he can locate. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">That scouting report on Turner is interesting. That is the report that you would have commonly seen about Turner coming into the draft where the Tigers selected him in the first round. It is also basically the same as the report Corey Ettinger gave about him before the 2011 season. In addition, it is the same report as I would give him after the 2011 season with his major league debut. Do you see a pattern? </p> <p class="MsoNormal">At this point, it cannot be said that Turner has really developed much if at all. He’s too much for minor league hitters because he can locate a tough fastball and can occasionally drop in a hammer curve. However, he needs those secondary pitches to survive in the majors. Low nineties is great but if you are not more complete as a pitcher you are simply another Wade Davis or Jeremy Guthrie. You can certainly do worse but that should give you some indication that Turner’s entrenchment at the top of the rotation is far from guaranteed. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Unlike Porcello, Turner has the quality in his secondary pitches to go along with a more powerful and possibly even a more precise fastball. The problem is the quality is not always there. Turner needs repetition to get his delivery down pat, however he has already shown a willingness to abandon the curve and changeup to play it safe with the fastball. Even if he does stick with his offspeed stuff when it is not working he simply burns too many pitches to be successful. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">The bottom line is Turner is not there yet. Turner will not come into 2012 and be a number two starter, he might barely survive as a number five. While I do not doubt that he very likely might be the fifth best starter looking for a rotation spot with his quality fastball and occasionally proficient off speed pitches, the Tigers would surely be disappointed if that is all he ever became. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Turner does not need to improve his quality, he needs to improve his consistency. He could accomplish that goal in the majors but the much safer bet to see improvement is in the minor leagues where the pressure of immediate dividends will not be nearly as high. In the minors, Turner can focus on pumping his curveball often, without concern for results. Minor leaguers will be more likely to swing and miss at his fastball and to chase his errant curves. All in all, the pressure will simply be lower, he can concentrate on his weaknesses, and he can be in a positive situation to improve. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">As I said, Turner could possibly improve in the majors as well, but the deck will be stacked against him. He will be in a win now situation. If his curveball is not working, he is fairly likely to abandon it and pump fastballs. Major leaguers will not chase his errant curve balls. Turner is simply not as likely to get as much repetition with his off speed pitches in that situation. Without as much repetition, it will be substantially harder for him to develop into a better pitcher. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Now I am not saying the Tigers should relegate Turner to the minors until he finds more consistency. The Tigers probably have a better beat on their own prospect than I do, especially considering I have not seen him all off season. However, despite their previous approach with Rick Porcello, I think developmentally, Turner and Porcello are two different pitchers who should be approached differently by the organization. I think the Tigers have shown a willingness to be more patient with Turner as well. He has already seen far more minor league time than Porcello ever did. As a result, despite the press Turner has received this off season, do not be surprised to see him head back to the minors for most of 2012. </p>Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-73816014506636125952011-12-26T21:13:00.003-06:002011-12-29T14:41:06.254-06:00Jose Valverde: Adjusting Value Based on Leverage<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:splitpgbreakandparamark/> <w:dontvertaligncellwithsp/> <w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> <w:word11kerningpairs/> <w:cachedcolbalance/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathpr> <m:mathfont val="Cambria Math"> <m:brkbin val="before"> <m:brkbinsub val="--"> <m:smallfrac val="off"> <m:dispdef/> <m:lmargin val="0"> <m:rmargin val="0"> <m:defjc val="centerGroup"> <m:wrapindent val="1440"> <m:intlim val="subSup"> <m:narylim val="undOvr"> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="35" qformat="true" name="caption"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="10" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" name="Default Paragraph Font"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="11" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtitle"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="22" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Strong"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="20" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="59" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Table Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Placeholder Text"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="No Spacing"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Revision"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="34" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="List Paragraph"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="29" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="30" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">In an interesting week on fangraphs.com, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php?author=6093">Jack Moore</a> published several interesting and probably long overdue articles on reliever leverage and how it pertains to their value as indicated by their free agent salary (Overdue generally, not from Jack Moore specifically). Through these articles, Jack Moore analyzes WPA as a possible measuring tool for determining reliever salary as opposed to the conventional $/WAR measures because relievers, unlike other players, largely have their leverage determined for them by coaching decisions. As a result, relievers signed to be put in high leverage situations by their coaching staffs probably have their value unfairly determined to be albatross by traditional measures. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">With this new and probably superior way of thinking of high leverage relievers available to us, it makes sense to analyze reliever performance incorporating both expected performance in terms of WAR<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>and in terms of leverage. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1726&position=P">Jose Valverde</a>, in particular, is an interesting case from a number of different perspectives. Valverde has outperformed his expected FIP and xFIP over the course of his career by a considerable margin, one that probably cannot be ignored. In addition, Valverde’s actual value to the Tigers must be analyzed in terms of his leverage as well as traditional value measurements. </p> <a name='more'></a> <p class="MsoNormal">When you combine all these facets together, what you have is a big complicated mess as to Valverde’s actual value that I will attempt to sort through in an efficient matter if at all possible. Valverde has, at least in smaller samples, demonstrated an ability to somehow ‘survive’ 9<sup>th</sup> inning save opportunities while giving up the majority of his earned runs in non-save situations. Is it even remotely possible that this could be a skill? Does Valverde have a second gear when he is saving games? As I said before, Valverde is an interesting case. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">For his career, Valverde has 242 saves to 30 blown saves. Over the last two years as a Tiger, Valverde has 75 saves to 3 blown saves, a ratio far superior to his career numbers. Valverde has increased his GB rate and his HR/FB rate is down however, Valverde’s K% has decreased while his BB% has increased. As a result, it is difficult to say that Valverde has shown any significant improvement as a pitcher even if his peripheral profile is a bit different.<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Since Valverde is clearly a pitcher who is ‘changing’ since his arrival with the Tigers for good or bad, I will try to look only at his stats as a Tiger. Furthermore, I will assume at the beginning of this analysis that Valverde cannot actively change his walks, strikeouts and home runs based on whether he is trying to save a game or not. Valverde has pitched 135.1 innings as a Tiger with 132 K’s, 66 walks, and 10 home runs. While Valverde has largely outperformed his FIP and xFIP, he matches up very well with the more robust SIERA regression with a 3.07 SIERA as opposed to a 3.02 era career. Despite the discrepancy over the last two years, I think SIERA correlates well enough with Valverde that we can use it as an approximation going forward for Valverde’s expected performance. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Next we have to consider Valverde’s leverage. Unfortunately WPA (Win Probability Added) is entirely results based rather than regressed based on expected performance. In addition WPA does not consider marginal benefits (the over replacement part of WAR). <span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Valverde’s cumulative WPA for the 2011 season was 4.168 and 1.31 in 2010. Valverde’s WAR over the same two year period was 1.6. As you can see, WPA gives credit to Valverde for over 5 wins while WAR gives him credit for under 2.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Valverde’s actual value to the Tigers over this time is probably somewhere between those two numbers. Valverde did add about 5.47 actual wins in probability form to the Tigers, but his replacement could have done feasibly almost as well. Further, as we can see from the numbers, Valverde had a 3 era in 2010 and a 2.24 era in 2011 as opposed to a 3.47 and 3.58 SIERA in both seasons. This makes it highly likely that Valverde benefited from some good fortune, good defense, or both.<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal">If we first regress Valverde’s two year performance to his SIERA we get: </p> <p class="MsoNormal">63inn/9inn = 7 x 3.47 = 24.29 runs; 72.33 inn/9inn = 8.036 x 3.58 = 28.77 runs + 24.29 runs =~ 53 runs in 135.33 innings</p> <p class="MsoNormal">This result gives approximately .392 runs/inning regressed. This essentially provides a probability for Valverde giving up a single run in an inning. We can roughly estimate the probability of Valverde giving up additional runs by treating each run as an independent event per inning making the probability p = .392^N where N = runs. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">When we consider leverage we really are only concerned with situations in which the score is close, possibly within 3 runs or so each way. The greatest gains in WPA occur when the score is tied or the lead is one run and Valverde pitches a scoreless inning. For the purposes of this study, I will analyze Valverde as if WPA is park neutral for simplicity. In this case, the home team at the top of the 9<sup>th</sup> inning has odds of winning of 83.8%, 92.7% and 96.7% for one, two and three runs respectively while they have a 50% chance of winning when entering tied but a 63.8% chance entering the bottom of the inning tied. For the away team it is 80%, 91% and 96% in the bottom of the 9<sup>th</sup>. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Now Valverde, the opposition, and the park environment will all have some impact on these win odds; an inherent flaw in this analysis. However, these numbers give a good approximation without getting too detailed. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Additionally a problem we have in this attempt is that this analysis would require normalizing leverage because the leverage Valverde actually experienced is not predictive. However since I am more concerned about Valverde’s value as depicted by WPA, WAR and my middle ground analysis, I will use his actual opportunities.<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Between the 2010 and 2011 season, Valverde appeared in 14 one run away games, 9 one run home games, 15 tie games, 18 two run away games, 11 two run home games, 6 three run away games, 16 three run home games, 7 four run away games, and 10 four run home games. In addition he appeared in a couple eight inning two run 1 outs situations which are high enough leverage to matter. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">I am now going to use a simple cheat to determine how much of his WPA he would be expected to capture because there is no precise mathematical formula to find the win probability at different run levels. I will discount Valverde’s WPA based on the probability of him capturing the positive WPA with an attempt to estimate the negative value of the blown chance added in (note there are additional levels of "blown" chances if he gives up more than the tying runs but probability is low enough that the subtracted value is not enough to play out, I suppose I could more accurately use some series to get the value but I decided not to go that far): </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Away: </p> <p class="MsoNormal">1 Run = .2 wp x 14 games x (1 - .392 SIERA) - .3 x 14 x .392 = .357 adjuted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal">2 Run = .09 wp x 18 games x (1 - .392^2 SIERA) - .41 x 18 x .392^2 = .55 adjusted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal">3 Run = .04 wp x 6 games x (1 - .392^3 SIERA) - .46 x 6 x .392^3 = .112 adjusted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal">4 Run = .018 wp x 7 games x (1 - .392^4 SIERA) - .482 x 7 x .392^4 = .11 adjusted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Home: </p> <p class="MsoNormal">1 Run = .162 wp x 9 games x (1 - .392 SIERA) - .2 x 9 x .392 = .321 adjusted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops:240.75pt">2 Run = .073 wp x 11 game x (1 - .392^2 SIERA) - .297 x 11 x .392^2 = .18 adjusted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops:240.75pt">3 Run = .033 wp x 16 games x (1 - .392^3 SIERA) - .329 x 16 x .392^3 = .17 adjusted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops:240.75pt">4 Run = .015 wp x 10 games x (1 - .392^4 SIERA) - .347 x 10 x .392^4 = .06 adjuted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops:240.75pt">Ties = .138 wp x 15 games (1 - .392) - .138 x 15 x .392 = .44 adjuted WPA</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops:240.75pt">Total Adjusted WPA = 2.3</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops:240.75pt">As a result, when we adjust Valverde’s leveraged situation with some linear weight calibrations (SIERA) we can see his win probability added is much closer to his WAR although still slightly higher because of the fact that he is intentionally put in high leverage spots. According to the market that means Valverde was actually worth something around 10.35 million to 11.5 million over the last two years a/k/a between 5-6 million a season. </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops:240.75pt">Now there are still two things to take away from this analysis. First, these are largely rough estimates based on all the factors I mentioned above. Second, the adjusted WPA is still NOT in Above Replacement or WPAAR (Win Probability Added Above Replacement) form. The key for the 'above replacement' adjustment is to determine the proper replacement in this case and then to discount that from the adjusted WPA value. In this case, we can probably assume Valverde would be replaced by the AVERAGE BULLPEN ARM. Keep in mind here I said, average bullpen arm and NOT minor league replacement player. This is because we are accounting for leverage in this calculation and Valverde’s leverage situations are likely to be overtaken by somebody with major league caliber talent. In other words, his replacement is already a major leaguer in the same bullpen, he’s just pitching low to no leverage situations. (This assumes the high leverage set up guy moves up to closer, and non leverage pitcher comes into high leverage spots. There is a leverage difference between setup and closer on down the line so this again is a rough estimate.) Third, I have not attempted to study whether Valverde could possibly adjust his performance based on the leverage at hand. Although I believe that to be unlikely, it is probably a scenario that should be considered in light of the fact that Valverde has not “failed” at anywhere near his expected rate. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">If you then want to consider WPAAR, from 2010-2011 the average relief pitcher in the MLB has a SIERA ER/IP of .392! That is exactly the same number as Jose Valverde! As a result, when you consider leverage value, Jose Valverde has a 0 WPAAR (based on his own "chances" the replacement pitcher would have an identical WPA value)! Now based on how we have defined everything it is important to consider that a relief pitcher with a WPAAR of 0 still has a positive actual WAR. What is also says is that the average MLB relief pitcher should be able to get you a WPA of around 2 over two years, or 1 WPA/year. What this might indicate in Jose Valverde’s situation is that he might not offer you any value above the average reliever you could put in a high leverage situation such as the role of “Closer”. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">The only thing I have yet to consider is whether Valverde might have the ability to better his production based on high leverage situations so as to be a positive WPAAR player. </p>Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-30440646753026038352011-10-16T23:05:00.004-05:002011-10-16T23:17:25.422-05:00Felipe Paulino Enjoys a Breakout Following Trade to Kansas CityOf all the acquisitions made in the AL Central this season the most meaningful might be one you never heard of, namely the Royals acquisition of <b><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3777&position=P">Felipe Paulino</a></b> from the Rockies for cash considerations. The move was made back in late May after Paulino, who was once a well regarded pitching prospect in the Astros system was traded to the Rockies for <b>Clint Barmes</b>, following the 2010 season.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
I wrote briefly about the move back in June after Paulino made his debut for the Royals with four solid outings, throwing 21 innings while striking out 16 and walking just 4 saying;<br />
<br />
"<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><i>I don't expect Paulino to maintain the role he's on. He's been buoyed by some good luck and ground ball/walk rates that don't mesh with his career track record. But he is a talented arm, and has the ability to miss enough bats, while getting enough ground balls to be a capable member of a Major League rotation, or potentially a dominant member of a bullpen</i>."</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br />
Over his next six starts Paulino would have just two quality starts and got hit rather hard, posting a 5.22 ERA over 39.2 innings of work. But a deeper look at the peripherals showed he was still pitching rather well, as he struck out 43 in that span while walking just 11 for a K/BB raio just a tick under 4. But where he benefitted from a .242 BABIP over the first four starts, he suffered from a .404 mark over his next six.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br />
</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Nevertheless over those 60.2 innings Paulino had allowed an opponents OPS of just .704 despite being the victim of a .345 BABIP while striking out 59 and walking 15 and getting ground balls on 49% of his balls in play. All very good marks.Overall Paulino's 4.11 ERA in his 124.2 innings of work as a starter for the Royals was the best mark of his career - something that speaks to how bad he's been. But the fact that he posted peripherals strong enough to warrant such success, with a K rate of 8.59 (career best), walk rate of 3.46 (slightly better than his career average), and a ground ball rate of 44.8% (slightly better than his career average) is promising.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br />
</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">It's worth noting however that Paulino like the Marlins <b>Ricky Nolasco</b> has simply never been as good as his peripherals suggest he ought to be. While Paulino's career 4.18 career FIP and even better career 4.04 xFIP suggest he should be a solid #3 type of starter, his career 5.28 ERA isn't anywhere close to where we would project it to be. That's mostly because his career BABIP of .340 is about as bad as I've ever seen for a pitcher with at least 300 MLB innings.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br />
</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Indeed, all Paulino really accomplished during his stint with the Royals was to live up to his career FIP projections.</span></span>Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-15927314107401378492011-10-16T18:31:00.000-05:002011-10-16T18:31:23.109-05:00Luke Hochevar's Hot Second Half - And What It Means For 2012.Of all the unheralded story lines from the AL Central's second half, perhaps the most prominent would be the lack of discussion concerning <b><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6943&position=P">Luke Hochevar's</a></b> second half. Hochevar, who was a hard-throwing standout at the University of Tennessee where he was named SEC pitcher of the year in 2005, is probably best known for his refusal to sign after being drafted 40th overall by the Dodgers in 2005 before engaging in a rather epic signing process; playing hardball along with his agent Scott Boras, firing Boras, accepting a lesser offer with his new agent, then firing him and resigning with Boras while reneging on his previously agreed upon deal, and finally playing Independent league baseball until the 2006 draft where he was taken again.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Got all that? Yeah, it's confusing.<br />
<br />
When the Royals took him 1st overall in the '06 draft they knew it would take a fortune to sign him and they doled out a 3.5m signing bonus and a four year MLB deal worth at least 5.3m guaranteed. While it took him just over two months to sign, he did manage to make his professional debut for the Royals, throwing 15.1 strong innings for class A affiliate Burlington. <br />
<br />
His second season saw him pitch well at AA, striking out a batter per inning while posting a 3.6 K/BB ratio before earning a promotion to AAA where he struggled for perhaps the first time in his life. While pitching for AAA Omaha he would post a strikeout rate of just 6.8, a walk rate of 3.3 and an ERA of 5.12. Despite these struggles, and perhaps feeling pressured by his big signing bonus and MLB contract which had his option years slipping away, the Royals promoted him to the Majors at the end of the 2007 season and saw him throw 12.1 innings in which he struggled to miss bats but enjoyed some small sample size ERA success.<br />
<br />
Since then it's largely been a series of ups and downs, at least as it pertains to where he was pitching, as his consistently down performance forced the Royals to bounce him between time at AAA and the Majors while Hochevar struggled to translate the success he had in the lower levels of the minors to the Majors.<br />
<br />
Through July 9th of this year, Hochevar had thrown a total of 506.1 innings for the Royals, accumulating a career strikeout rate of 5.67, walk rate of 2.38, and an ERA of 5.56. In short, he was absolutely awful.<br />
<br />
But then something weird happened over this seasons second half - Luke got good. Really good.<br />
<br />
Over his final 10 starts of 2011, Hochevar threw 67 strong innings, posting a 3.49 ERA, a strikeout rate of 8.32, and a walk rate of 2.42 while opponents hit just .226 with a .628 OPS against him. It was, by far, the best stretch of his Major League career.<br />
<br />
The logical questions of course are why, and can it continue?<br />
<br />
By looking at the Pitch FX data <a href="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/460024/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2011&to=7%2F28%2F2011">from the beginning of the season</a>, and <a href="http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/460024/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=7%2F28%2F2011&to=9%2F30%2F2011">the data from his final ten starts</a>, I notice two primary differences. First, he utilizes his mix of fastballs (four seamer, cutter, and sinker) about 10% less, and his slider about 10% percent more than he did over the first four months of the year. Second, that slider is getting significantly increased movement, getting deeper, and running away harder - all while gaining a slight uptick in velocity.<br />
<br />
And that slider really is the difference.<br />
<br />
While he threw it just 10.7% of the time to open the season, he threw it 20.9% of the time to finish the year and it was vastly more effective over the seasons final 10 months. The pitch induced swings and misses (they key ingredient in generating strikeouts) on just 13.3% pf his offerings to open the season - right around the MLB average of 13.6% for sliders.<br />
<br />
Over his final ten starts however he managed to get hitters to swing and miss at the offering 22.6% of the time - approaching twice the MLB average. The increased movement led to greater success and that also seems to have led to a vastly higher confidence in the pitch for Luke as he threw the pitch for a strike on over 72% of his offerings to finish the season, a huge increase over the 58.7% mark he opened the year with.<br />
<br />
Suddenly having an effective secondary offering, hitters were no longer able to simply sit fastball on Hochevar and that in turn made his fastballs more effective. Batters swung and missed at his primary offering, his four-seamer, 57% more; and his sinker 75% more often over his final ten starts. Those increases occurred despite the fact that he made no tangible improvements in either pitch.<br />
<br />
As we can see from that data, his success was more than just a small sample size fluke, intentionally or not, Hochevar developed a legitimately strong secondary offering that allows him to be a much more effective pitcher than he had been in the past. Whether or not he'll be able to maintain that success heading into 2012 however is a more difficult question to answer. One would assume that the team has taken notice of the improvement in his slider, and will hopefully continue to encourage him to throw it with increased frequency in 2012. But we won't know if he'll be able to maintain the improvement on the pitch until next year rolls around.<br />
<br />
If he can't, his second half could slip vanish into the obscurity of the game. If he can, the Royals might finally realize some profit on the huge investment they made in Hochevar back in 2006. They might also have found another internal answer to the biggest question mark the team will have to answer as it heads into 2012 - starting pitching.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-85995485239313565032011-10-06T18:37:00.008-05:002011-10-07T11:12:59.022-05:00Doug Fister.....Ace?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:splitpgbreakandparamark/> <w:dontvertaligncellwithsp/> <w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> <w:word11kerningpairs/> <w:cachedcolbalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathpr> <m:mathfont val="Cambria Math"> <m:brkbin val="before"> <m:brkbinsub val="--"> <m:smallfrac val="off"> <m:dispdef/> <m:lmargin val="0"> <m:rmargin val="0"> <m:defjc val="centerGroup"> <m:wrapindent val="1440"> <m:intlim val="subSup"> <m:narylim val="undOvr"> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="35" qformat="true" name="caption"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="10" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" name="Default Paragraph Font"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="11" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtitle"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="22" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Strong"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="20" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="59" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Table Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Placeholder Text"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="No Spacing"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Revision"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="34" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="List Paragraph"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="29" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="30" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">When <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9425&position=P">Doug Fister</a> first came over from the Tigers for a package of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9700&position=OF">Casper Wells</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1370&position=P">Charlie Furbush</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11745&position=P">Chance Ruffin</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa503297&position=3B">Francisco Martinez</a>, it seemed at first glance that the Tigers may have paid a lot for a ground ball pitcher who could not strike anybody out and relied heavily on his home ball park for success. That recipe seemed dicey at best for the success of Doug Fister going forward as a member of the Tigers. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">During the first couple of games that Doug Fister pitched for the Tigers, I was both surprised and encouraged by how effective Fister’s arsenal seemed to be. Fister features a both four seam fastball and a two seam fastball which he throws nearly as often and at virtually the same average velocity of 90 mph. The two seamer features a few additional inches of down and in run to right handers as opposed to his normal four seam fastball. The identical speed but different trajectories make things very difficult on opposing hitters. Furthermore, Fister features a range of off speed pitches including a very nice slow curve ball with 12-6 break at around 75 mph, a harder slider at around 86 mph with only moderate break, and a change up at around 83 mph with similar but slightly more downward movement as compared with his two seamer. </p> <a name='more'></a> <p class="MsoNormal">This vast arsenal is actually slightly different from years past. First, Fister’s fastball velocity has improved by over 1 mph from last year on average and his two seamer velocity has improved by almost 2 mph from last year. Further his change-up, slider and curve have also seen noticeable upticks in velocity as well. Second, Fister throws his four seam fastball only 1/3 of the time as compared with almost 2/3 the year before. Fister uses his curve ball and slider upwards of 5% more often and he features his two seam fastball 25% of the time. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">These changes have resulted in tangible improvements in Fister’s game from the 2010 season. While Fister’s ground ball rate remained a robust 47%, he did manage to lower his HR/FB from an already low 6.4% to 5.1%. Meanwhile his K% has risen to 16.7% (SO/TBF) up from 12.9% last year while his BB% has gone down to 4.2% (BB/TBF) from 4.4%. Fister proved himself a decent pitcher last year but his numbers this season have propelled his FIP into the top 5 in the AL.<br /></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Of particular note, as a member of the Tigers, Fister has racked up a 20.6% K% in 301 total batters faced. His BB% over the same period was 1.9%. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/principles/sample-size/">While the 301 TBF is really not enough batters to make any conclusions about his BB%, it is enough to conclude that his new mixture of pitches and enhanced pitching arsenal may be resulting in significantly more strike outs!</a> To be clear, 301 TBF is a point for strike outs where it becomes more likely that Fister had a change in his skills rather than a period of luck. The same cannot be said of BB% but the K% itself is very encouraging. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">A 20% K% would put Fister in the same company as pitchers like <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1757&position=P">Dan Haren</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3137&position=P">Max Scherzer</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1259&position=P">Colby Lewis</a>. While I do not necessarily think he will keep up a pace THAT high, the stats suggest it is at least more likely than not. Further, it is worth noting that his Tigers K% of 20% and his long run BB% of 4.2% is extremely similar to Dan Haren, one of the best pitchers in the game (not to mention Fister has a superior GB rate and HR/FB rate). </p> <p class="MsoNormal">While I am not prepared to say that Fister has elevated himself to the level of Dan Haren, I do think I can comfortably say that Fister is a much better pitcher than the casual fan, Tigers fans, and even the Tigers themselves thought they were getting when they made that trade. </p>Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-64275092544108931562011-09-11T17:27:00.004-05:002011-09-12T11:40:50.245-05:00Adam Dunn: Mechanics, Age or a Little of Both?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:splitpgbreakandparamark/> <w:dontvertaligncellwithsp/> <w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> <w:word11kerningpairs/> <w:cachedcolbalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathpr> <m:mathfont val="Cambria Math"> <m:brkbin val="before"> <m:brkbinsub val="--"> <m:smallfrac val="off"> <m:dispdef/> <m:lmargin val="0"> <m:rmargin val="0"> <m:defjc val="centerGroup"> <m:wrapindent val="1440"> <m:intlim val="subSup"> <m:narylim val="undOvr"> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="35" qformat="true" name="caption"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="10" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" name="Default Paragraph Font"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="11" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtitle"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="22" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Strong"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="20" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="59" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Table Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Placeholder Text"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="No Spacing"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Revision"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="34" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="List Paragraph"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="29" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="30" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">I have somehow managed to avoid discussing <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF">Adam Dunn</a> this season mostly because I usually like to talk about either positive things or at least somewhat intriguing negative things. Adam Dunn might come close to the latter but my “hunch” all season was that his issues this year have had mostly to do with a combination of bad luck and old age. I assumed early on that he would probably at least right his production enough to be considered a “productive” DH but at this point it is clear that ship has sailed. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Recently I encountered several intriguing pieces on Adam Dunn. The first, was <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adam-dunn-should-hit-better-but-not-much-better/">Bradley Woodrum’s article entitled Adam Dunn Should Hit Better – But Not Much Better</a>, which largely confirmed at least part of my first suspicion, that Dunn has been unlucky. Woodrum uses a predictive model entitled ShHAP which uses career BABIP and the players K, BB and HR rates to make predictions of expected player performance. Those of you who have read previous articles of mine know that I have done very similar analysis of other players. Seeing as how Woodrum’s work would likely completely mirror any work I could do on the subject, it suffices to say that I agree with Woodrum’s conclusion. Dunn has been unlucky to an extent but his drop in production has largely resulted from a dramatically increased K rate, lower BB rate, and lower HR rate on fly balls. Even with a luck adjustment Dunn would not be expected to be a serviceable DH. </p> <a name='more'></a> <p class="MsoNormal">Next, in the comments section of that same article I noticed a link to an interesting side by side swing mechanics analysis of Adam Dunn that can be found here, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68MG3U_mjLU">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68MG3U_mjLU</a>. I found this video interesting because there are very subtle but noticeable differences in Adam Dunn’s swing. I agree to an extent with the video, Dunn is starting his hands a bit earlier and he is not getting off his back side with much authority. However, calling these issues a problem of “mechanics” can be deceptive simply because when players age a bit and lose some physical skills, that same player will show swing mechanics issues. The reason for this is because if said player is losing something like bat speed in their swing, they will try to compensate naturally by adjusting their swing in subtle ways. Staying back on the ball, for example, is something that a player with good bat speed can do effectively, but a player who is slower through the zone would be chronically late against better fastballs and therefore does not have the luxury of keeping his hands back. That same player will likely have to “cheat” to get there in a timely fashion. That same player who cheats is now going to face additional problems such as an inability to adjust to offspeed pitches and an inability to adjust the bat trajectory to make good contact overall. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">In Adam Dunn’s case, I think the video does a good job of pointing out that Dunn is staring earlier but I disagree that it is his hands that we should focus on. The first thing I noticed from the film was his hips. If you notice, in his prime Adam Dunn not only keeps his hands back, but very clearly rotates his hips in line with his shoulders and hands in a uniform manner. In the second shot, Dunn’s hips are already clearing out before he even plants his heel. By the time his heel is planted, his hips are already halfway (slight exaggeration) through their rotation. <span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">In addition to hip rotation that is not only early but out of line with his shoulders and hands, Dunn also sports an exaggerated leg kick at the beginning of the swing. Furthermore, notice how Dunn’s right arm has more of a locked L-shape coming through the zone for prime Dunn versus a straighter almost “noodle” looking arm in the second video because his hips are out and his shoulders are following early. Finally, Dunn finished in the first video by pushing his weight off his back leg versus bad Dunn who simply collapses on the back leg as he falls inward due to his momentum which the video notes as the second major swing issue. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">While all of these swing differences are certainly “mechanical” in nature, they are also indicative of a player who is “cheating” because he is having trouble generating power and bat speed more generally. All of these changes would be expected in that scenario where a player has simply lost physical ability because all of the actions would be made to get the bat through the zone quicker and generate more power through momentum in a manner that is compensatory to a loss in ability. The problem is that these adjustments simply do not work. Dunn almost seems to drag his arms through the zone with his hips and shoulders, something that would be an expected reaction if he simply could not get through the zone quickly with his normal swing. Further, he extended leg kick and his body collapsing and falling off would be an expected way to compensate for a lack of power using the body’s momentum in more extreme fashion. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">It is tough to make a distinction between bad mechanics and compensatory mechanics due to bad physical skills. Two factors led me to believe his swing is compensatory in nature and that is first, it is a swing that largely demonstrates compensatory tendencies and two, Dunn is a bigger player who is older and used to be a model of consistency. Adam Dunn is 6’6” and almost 300 lbs and baseball is filled with bigger sluggers who did not age gracefully. There’s just more that needs to be maintained and more that can break down. Baseball fans have seen this kind of development before with players like Mo Vaugh and Richie Sexson among others. The early 30’s are often unkind to bigger bodies. However, as I mentioned, Adam Dunn has been one of the most consistent hitters in the majors over the course of his career with his strikeout rate, walk rate and HR rates never varying by much more than 2%. This makes it all the more difficult for me to believe that suddenly in his early 30’s, a prime time for bigger players like him to lose ability, that he simply developed mechanical “glitches” in his swing. Finally, the White Sox are an intelligent franchise. It is a bit hard for me to believe that these issues with his swing have not already been spotted and worked on by the coaching staff. If correcting these problems were really so easy for Adam Dunn, one would think he would have already done it. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Having said all that, simply because I mentioned him in the same breath as Richie Sexson and Mo Vaughn does not mean that I think Dunn cannot salvage his ability as a major league player. Old age and body breakdown are tough issues but they are not insurmountable. <span style=""> </span>I do believe Dunn is at the point in his career where it will simply take more offseason work and effort on his part to be an effective player. That means better workout, diet and general lifestyle choices outside the ballpark than ever before.<span style=""> </span>It is a tough adjustment that not only requires dedication but some good luck on the injury front as well. However, I would caution anybody on using this season and these tendencies of Adam Dunn to completely write him off at this point. Maybe this kind of season is just the motivation he needs to work harder than he ever has before and maybe that hard work will pay off in a big way. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Frankly, I am still inclined to give Dunn some benefit of the doubt before next season before I make any conclusions on his ability to come back from these problems. It takes dedication for a professional athlete to be as consistent as he has been in the past and his own pride will certainly be a motivating factor. Certainly he needs his body to agree with his desire as well, but I believe the desire is there. </p>Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-12353766095749298682011-08-23T23:38:00.002-05:002011-08-23T23:47:05.129-05:00Burning Bridges with Kevin Slowey<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:splitpgbreakandparamark/> <w:dontvertaligncellwithsp/> <w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> <w:word11kerningpairs/> <w:cachedcolbalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathpr> <m:mathfont val="Cambria Math"> <m:brkbin val="before"> <m:brkbinsub val="--"> <m:smallfrac val="off"> <m:dispdef/> <m:lmargin val="0"> <m:rmargin val="0"> <m:defjc val="centerGroup"> <m:wrapindent val="1440"> <m:intlim val="subSup"> <m:narylim val="undOvr"> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="35" qformat="true" name="caption"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="10" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" name="Default Paragraph Font"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="11" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtitle"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="22" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Strong"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="20" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="59" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Table Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Placeholder Text"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="No Spacing"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Revision"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="34" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="List Paragraph"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="29" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="30" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">At this point, there seems to be little secret that <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9918&position=P">Kevin Slowey</a> has fallen out of favor with the Minnesota Twins. It seems that everybody within the general vicinity of Kevin Slowey hates Kevin Slowey. I have to admit ignorance on this one; he seems like a nice enough guy when he threatens to <a href="http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2011/03/kevin-slowey-awkward-murderer.html">murder people</a>. However, I can see how <a href="http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/5/27/2190164/sources-time-traveling-slowey-person-of-interest-in-kidnapping-of">Slowey time traveling, kidnapping and then murdering the Lindbergh baby would not win him popularity points with anyone.</a> </p> <a name='more'></a> <p class="MsoNormal">In all seriousness though, there were at one point many trade rumors swirling around regarding the Twins dealing Kevin Slowey. For all we know, the Twins may still try and work out a deal through waivers or ship him off this offseason. The question has to be asked, is Kevin Slowey so intolerable that he should be dealt? <a href="http://www.minnpost.com/aarongleeman/2011/05/24/28601/with_bridges_burned_pitcher_kevin_slowey_is_likely_to_be_leaving_twins">It seems he has a way of getting on the bad side of team officials, management, teammates and the media alike</a>. However, when he’s not creating turmoil or rehabbing from his latest DL stint he’s actually a pretty good pitcher. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Slowey has been a 2-3 WAR pitcher when moderately healthy. He is a rare pitcher in that he has both the ability to keep the walk totals lower than anybody not named Roy Halladay while still striking out almost 7 batters per nine innings. Now, he does this while giving up a ton of fly balls and allowing about 10% of those fly balls to carry over for home runs while featuring fairly mediocre stuff. On the whole, Slowey has proven himself to be a solid, if unspectacular starter amassing a 4.24 FIP for his career, a mark that is better than other notable starters Trevor Cahill, Rick Porcello and Nick Blackburn over the same period. As you can see that does not exactly put him in elite company but it does indicate that he’s more than good enough to be an unquestioned starter for a club and provide value in the middle to middle back end of a rotation. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">This season, Slowey saw more time out of the bullpen initially and is only now getting a shot at the rotation amid reports that everyone and their brother is dissatisfied with him in Minnesota. The question for Minnesota really is whether Slowey’s apparent unlikeable disposition is enough to trade him for what will likely be lesser value than his worth, or can they just send him over to the far corner of the locker room and pitch him when needed? The problem here is that most of the opposition probably realizes that Minnesota would be willing to take less than full value to rid themselves of this headache, and they also realize that Slowey is a pretty effective pitcher. Maybe the best thing they can do is to pitch him as a starter, hope he stays healthy for a length of time, and then deal him for as close to fair value as they can get at some point next season. At any rate, there is more to this story than meets the eye and it will be interesting to see it play out over the rest of this season and the offseason. </p> Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-76051601472945028152011-08-23T21:41:00.007-05:002011-08-26T16:22:53.985-05:00A Look Back at the Ubaldo Jimenez Trade: Various Thoughts<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves/> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:donotpromoteqf/> <w:lidthemeother>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:lidthemeasian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:lidthemecomplexscript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:splitpgbreakandparamark/> <w:dontvertaligncellwithsp/> <w:dontbreakconstrainedforcedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> <w:word11kerningpairs/> <w:cachedcolbalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathpr> <m:mathfont val="Cambria Math"> <m:brkbin val="before"> <m:brkbinsub val="--"> <m:smallfrac val="off"> <m:dispdef/> <m:lmargin val="0"> <m:rmargin val="0"> <m:defjc val="centerGroup"> <m:wrapindent val="1440"> <m:intlim val="subSup"> <m:narylim val="undOvr"> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 7"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 8"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" name="toc 9"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="35" qformat="true" name="caption"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="10" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" name="Default Paragraph Font"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="11" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtitle"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="22" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Strong"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="20" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="59" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Table Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Placeholder Text"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="1" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="No Spacing"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Revision"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="34" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="List Paragraph"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="29" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="30" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Quote"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="60" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="61" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="62" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Light Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="63" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="64" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="65" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="66" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="67" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="68" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="69" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="37" name="Bibliography"> <w:lsdexception locked="false" priority="39" qformat="true" name="TOC Heading"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal">After <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3374&position=P">Ubaldo Jimenez</a> was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Cleveland Indians, various baseball writers offered up their opinions on the trade. <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=6819978&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fblog%3fname%3dlaw_keith%26id%3d6819978">Keith Law</a>, for instance, seems to take the position the Indians were wrong to buy at the deadline when they acquired Jimenez because the club was really still in a rebuilding phase (at least that’s what I gathered from reading the first couple of paragraphs: I’m not an ESPN insider). Others at fangraphs.com <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/why-did-the-rockies-trade-ubaldo/">questioned the Rockies motivations</a> for selling on Ubaldo while both considering <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/deadline-recap-philosophical-argument-against-the-jimenez-trade/">injuries and value</a>. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">These articles make good points. The Indians really do not have a decisive direction to go in long term. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9776&position=2B">Jason Kipnis</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7571&position=3B">Lonnie Chisenhall</a> are too new and too inexperienced to say for sure that some of the Indian's young pieces are turning them into a contender while they have team control and it is hard (though not impossible) to imagine <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2280&position=1B">Matt Laporta</a> turning into much more than he currently is at 1b. The pitching staff has enjoyed an excellent season. Staff leader <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2038&position=P">Justin Masterson</a> has pitched well but enjoyed some luck with his low BABIP and HR/FB rates. The team is very much in the middle ground, not quite coming or going. Much of their future success could hinge on how Jimenez adjusts to the AL and if <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2197&position=OF">Grady Sizemore</a> can recover from his injury troubles by next season after which he is a free agent. </p><a name='more'></a> <p class="MsoNormal">If we take the point of view the Indians are not close enough to compete right now to have made that trade, the assumption is the current win value of Jimenez to this team both this year and in future years relative to his contract is outweighed by the future win benefit of the prospects they gave up relative to their contracts and that current wins are less valuable than future wins. All of this probably makes sense. If you assume the prospects sold and current young players develop, and that the Indians will be better in the future, wins<span style=""> </span>3-5 years down the line will be more valuable in terms of team value and contract value and the collective wins provided by those players dealt might be superior to that of Jimenez.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">However, there is another factor. Baseball is a business; a business meant to generate revenue for its owners. The Indians in this situation, whether or not they are lucky to have a shot at the division, have a shot at the division. If Jimenez is good enough to increase their odds of winning the division, you have to consider the revenue generated from the playoff appearance to the club, as well as potential impact the playoffs might have on future ticket sales and merchandising. This consideration is really even more unknown than the win values of the prospects traded simply because we are not privy to the data that would allow us, the outsider, to determine if it was a wise decision. <span style=""> </span>We do not know the revenue generation from the playoff appearance in any form, and thus, it is somewhat fruitless to analyze this trade for value.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Fangraphs also enters into the equation the health of Jimenez. If we consult the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3374&position=P&pitch=FA">PitchFX velocity charts</a>, we see that Jimenez’s velocity is still down despite his move from Colorado. If you give credence to thought put forth <a href="http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/8/1/2308528/ubaldo-jimenez-trade-indians-rockies-news">here</a>, that the altitude difference makes it harder for pitchers to recover, than it is possible the fatigued arm could lag, causing a timing problem, which in turn causes injury. However, Jimenez has really given no indications that he is hurt aside from the velocity dip. Further, while his delivery is somewhat unorthodox, it is actually very well balanced and well timed. His arm does not suffer from an extended or elongated motion pattern that would result in timing issues, instead he is always in the high cocked power V position upon rotating of the hips and his shoulders follow quickly thereafter. There’s nothing in his delivery that screams injury potential. That said, if he had injured himself in Colorado due to the fatigue theory, then it really does not matter if his mechanics are good. In this case, Jimenez’s velocity loss is a bit of a conundrum. Is it possible that Ubaldo simply did not condition himself as well to start the year? That explanation is really the only one I can come up with that would make sense. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Finally, despite Jimenez’s initial struggles, in my opinion, the Indians will no doubt be pleased with their acquisition provided he is still healthy. He is a great power pitcher with a gigantic arsenal of pitches who can strike guys out and induce ground balls. He is really the complete package aside from the problems with walks he has had throughout his career that has really kept him from entering the class of the truly elite. This season, a quick scroll through his numbers shows a pitcher who really has not had the benefit of any good fortune.<span style=""> </span>His BABIP is .324 compared to a career average of .286, his Left on Base percentage is only 64.3% despite a career rate of 71.3% and his home run per fly ball rate of 10.1% this year is higher than his career total of 7.8%. Velocity loss or not, his peripheral stats suggest he is still quite good. Stay patient Indians fans. </p> Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-64310928718421769962011-07-28T21:26:00.004-05:002011-07-28T21:43:25.261-05:00Indians Acquire FukudomeWith clear needs in the outfield, with Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore on the DL, the Indians sent AAA RHP Carlton Smith and High-A Outfielder Abner Abreu to the Cubs for Kosuke Fukudome and 3.9M.<br /><br />Fukudome, 34, currently holds a .273 average and a .374 OBP, 13th in the NL and has often leadoff for the Cubs. Fukadome typically falls off sharply as the season wears on compiling a career average in August of .275 and .198 in Sept/ Oct.<br /><br />Going to the Cubs are 2 underwhelming prospects; Abreu, 21, is hitting .244 at High-A. Smith, 25, has a 4.50 ERA and a 2-3 record in 46 innings, strictly in relief.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-78788605797339935012011-07-28T19:36:00.004-05:002011-07-28T20:00:22.533-05:00Teahen/ Jackson to TorontoLooking to make a dent in payroll Kenny Williams finalized a deal that sent RHP Edwin Jackson and 3B/OF Mark Teahen to the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Jason Frasor and Zack Stewart. Toronto will pick up 100% of the remainder of Teahen's contract. the deal should save the Sox about 9 M over the next 2 years. Edwin Jackson was flipped for the Cardinals Colby Rasmus.<br /><br />Frasor, 33, is an Oak Forest, IL native and has been in the Toronto ‘pen for the last 7 years this year he is 2-1 with a 2.98 ERA over 42 innings. Although he's a Cubs fans he says hes happy to be back in Chicago<br /><br />Stewart, 24, was drafted in 2008 by the Reds and made his MLB debut this year. He is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA over 16 innings this year. He was rated the #5 prospect in the Jays organization by Baseball America. Stewart was promoted to AAA in 2009 but was dropped back to AA this year. Stewart will start for AAA Charlotte.<br /><br />This move opened payroll for the Sox, with Toronto taking on 100% of teahen contract but also opened a roster spot for Alejandro De Aza who has been tearing up the Minors since arriving with the Sox in the beginning of last year his numbers are:<br /><br />• 2009 - .300/.370, 21 2B,<br />• 2010 - .302/.366, 21 2B<br />• 2011 - .322/.378, 29 2B, 22 SB<br /><br />what does De Aza bring to the Sox? A possible replacement for current leadoff hitter, Juan Pierre, who is in the final year of his contract and will, more than likely, not be offered one next year. De Aza also offers a viable Centerfield option, opposed to Alex Rios who has looked lazy this year.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-87615021278965174712011-07-26T10:56:00.005-05:002011-08-26T16:29:34.008-05:00Kansas City’s Cabrera ConundrumThe rumors are abuzz as we approach the MLB trade deadline. Many sources have said that the Kansas City Royals are very interested in trading one (or both) of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4792&position=OF">Jeff Francoeur</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4022&position=OF">Melky Cabrera</a>.
<br />
<br />The decision with Francoeur seems more straightforward for the Royals on its face. He is only under team control until the end of this current season. His peripheral stats are largely the same as they have always been, the one difference for him this season has been increased power output. Francoeur is going for extra bases at a rate similar to that of his second season in Atlanta when everybody thought he might be a breakout player for the Braves. Francoeur has demonstrated this type of power before, and has fallen off this level of power production before. Unfortunately, because Francoeur does not hit for a high average or take many walks, his value is pretty much entirely tied to his power output, which largely cannot be trusted at its current level. Especially when you consider that his production since the first month of the season has fallen off dramatically. As such the decision for KC is easy, with no team control and a player who is not all that valuable going forward, trade him for whatever you can get and move on. <a name='more'></a>
<br />
<br />With Melky Cabrera things are slightly more complicated. First, Melky is under team control for another year. Second, Melky has been a more valuable player than Francoeur this season (.350 wOBA to .337 wOBA, 3.3 WAR to 1.9 WAR). Third Melky can play CF, albeit not all that well, as well as a corner OF position. Fourth, Melky’s production has been consistent over the course of this season. Fifth, KC really does not have a ton of help in the way of corner outfield production. Scanning their minor league system, it is hard to believe they could get the level of production Melky would provide in the corners next season from anybody they called up. Will Myers, who has had some injury troubles, has also struggled in AA this season and at this point, one would have to believe he has at least one more full season in the minors to go if not more before he arrives in KC. As such, Melky may provide KC with the best production in a corner OF position by a good margin if he could keep up this seasons pace, and he would be maintained at a fairly affordable price.
<br />
<br />The question then becomes, first, can Melky possibly maintain his current level of production in to next season and second, is having Melky’s production for another season more valuable to KC than acquiring pieces for the future?
<br />
<br />The first is more complicated than it may seem. Melky’s increased production this season is bolstered by a OBP that is slightly above his career norms but supported by the highest batting average of his career and increased power production mostly in the form of home runs that seems to have arisen strictly from an increase in HR/FB. Melky actually has struck out slightly more and walked less than he has during the course of his career. His LD, GB and FB rates are all basically the same as they always have been. His career BABIP for all three rates are .703, .245 and .129 respectively while this season he is sitting at .714, .286, and .163 respectively. The BABIP increases could feasibly happen after a player develops more power generally if his LD, FB and GB are hit harder on the whole, but these increases seem suspect, especially the GB rate. His projected BA at this career rates would be:
<br />
<br />(128 – (.714 - .703)(63) – (.286 - .245)(175) – (.163 - .129)(121))/ 427 ~= .272
<br />
<br />If we assume, probably rightfully, that Melky’s .300 BA is highly inflated and that .272 represents his probable mean expected BA, his OBP falls to approximately .307, very much unspectacular.
<br />
<br />However, there is some reason to think Melky may be accumulating a more powerful HR stroke. He is only 26 at the moment, prime age for a power increase, and unlike Francoeur he did not show this kind of power years ago, only recently, in 2009 he had almost an identical HR/FB rate in his age 24 season. Last season he suffered his lowest HR/FB output however this season is almost identical to his 2009 rate. Before that his career HR/FB rate was roughly half of his 2009/2011 rates. His HR/FB rate over the last three seasons is roughly 6.7% and his production this year has been fairly consistent. While 2010 cannot be discounted entirely, there is reason to think that Melky can hit at a roughly 8-10% HR/FB clip going forward. His doubles power has remained mostly consistent. Assuming a 9% HR/FB rate, Melky’s slugging would basically remain the same minus the extra hits we deducted previously. As such, his expected triple slash would be approximately .272/.307/.429. As such, Melky almost definitely is not as valuable as his stats indicate this season. Looking at wOBA comparables for those lines it is apparent his wOBA would drop considerably, probably into the high .320’s though it is difficult to say exactly because it is an adjusted stat. That would put Melky slightly above average in CF and just about average in LF. Keeping in mind his defense is below average in CF and probably average to above average in LF, and what you have in Melky is a decidedly average player.
<br />
<br />The next question is whether it is worth it for KC to keep Melky for next season, or get value in return for him?
<br />
<br />The first issue is that Melky is outperforming his expected production by a somewhat considerable margin. So first and foremost, if any other team buys Melky as a potential producer at his current levels and is willing to compensate KC accordingly, KC should sell.
<br />
<br />Next, Melky is under team control. While he will make more than his current salary next season, he almost definitely will not cost as much as would a free agent per win value. The free agent cost of a win is probably close to 5 million, and Melky will not cost anything near that for the Royals. However, do the Royals really care?
<br />
<br />First, there are ample replacements available in the free agent market as possible stop gaps that would provide as much production if not more and probably not many years or dollars (albeit not as few dollars or years as Melky), such as Damon, Dejesus, Jones, Ludwick, Ross, Willingham ect. They have varying levels of value but all are relatively average to below average and probably will not command many dollars or years. KC could also use an internal option, probably somebody not named Myers, and trot out below average production at highly cost controlled rates. If we are looking at Melky’s direct replacement in CF in Lorenzo Cain, KC may get equivalent to better production in CF while losing in RF assuming both Francoeur and Melky are traded and no external replacement is found in the offseason.
<br />
<br />Second, KC this season probably figures to finish with 66-72 wins, not nearly enough to compete for the division. While the clubs offense is somewhat decent, the starting pitching is still largely abysmal, tied for the worst era in the AL with Baltimore, and their peripheral stats largely support that result. If the question is really about competitiveness for next season, there is some hope only because Hosmer and Moustakas may make strides and some more of the young pitching might arrive and produce enough to allow KC to compete in a relatively weaker division. However, that’s asking for a lot, realistically, KC probably needs to get about 15-20 wins better to possibly win the division, a substantial gulf that is probably unattainable for next season without massive free agent signings.
<br />
<br />As a result, because KC is probably not quite ready to compete for the division and because Melky Cabrera is probably overvalued by at least one front office somewhere at the moment, the right move is probably to move Melky along with Francoeur and worry about his replacement at a later date. As stated, for RF (assuming Cain takes over in center and Francoeur is gone), there will be ample choices for KC to replace Melky with if they think they are closer to the 15-20 win difference than not.Colin McLaughlinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06919948517731839742noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-45603350111976693922011-07-19T13:13:00.000-05:002011-07-19T13:13:05.604-05:00Indians Activate Carmona, Call Up Huff. Both Dominate Twins.As the Twins sent down <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6176&position=P"><b>Scott Baker</b></a> and called up <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5089&position=P"><b>Scott Diamond</b></a> for an emergency start, the Indians were forced to make a similar move by calling up <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4257&position=P"><b>David Huff</b></a> to make an additional start during yesterdays day-night doubleheader. They also activated <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3273&position=P"><b>Fausto Carmona</b></a> who had been on the DL since July 3rd with a right quad strain. <br />
<br />
The soft tossing 27 year old lefty Huff made a fine start, going seven innings without allowing a run in sweltering heat. The start stands as one of the finest of Huff's career as he's managed to throw seven shutout innings just two other times in his career, both in 2009.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Once thought to be a long term option at the back of the rotation, Huff has never managed to impress as he was routinely roughed up in both 2009 and 2010. The team has now reached a point where it seems set to move forward without him and his future in the Major Leagues, whatever that may amount to, quite likely lies with another organization. With a career strikeout rate of just 4.48 and a walk rate of 3.22 coupled with a rather high tendency toward fly balls, he doesn't do much of anything well. <br />
<br />
But for at least one more night, Huff managed to keep his Major League aspirations alive. <br />
<br />
On the other hand, the return of Fausto Carmona is more meaningful. Carmona of course was the Indians best pitcher last season, but has been a mess in 2011. He routinely struggles with command, failing to hold the zone or get ahead of hitters. In turn that makes him predictable, and even though he has a live arm and good stuff, hitters have teed of on him this season, plastering him for a 5.63 ERA.<br />
<br />
As I discussed last week, the Indians starting pitchers have stumbled mightily since the seasons first month and getting Carmona back to form - or at least close to back to form - should go a long ways in helping to right that ship. To some extent, Carmona has been unlucky, as his FIP of 4.82 is the better part of a full run lower than his ERA, not that a 4.82 FIP would be decidedly better of course.<br />
<br />
To make room for Huff and Carmona the team has placed center fielder <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2197&position=OF"><b>Grady Sizemore</b></a> back on the disabled list, this time with a contusion on his right knee (more on that later) and optioned <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9033&position=P"><b>Jeanmar Gomez</b></a> back to AAA.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-17341860432940663232011-07-17T22:57:00.000-05:002011-07-17T22:57:49.443-05:00Twins Send Baker to the DL, Tolbert to Rochester, Call Up TwoWhen <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6176&position=P"><b>Scott Baker</b></a> informed the Twins in his last outing that he had been experiencing some elbow discomfort they immediately removed him and skipped his following start the Sunday prior to the All-Star break. He had an MRI which showed no structural damage so the hope was that he could pick up his next start following the break.<br />
<br />
Last night however Baker told the team that he still didn't feel well enough to start. Facing a double header against the Indians starting tomorrow - the first game of which Baker was expected to start - the team has choosen to send him to the disabled list and called up 25 year old lefty <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa447668&position=P"><b>Scott Diamond</b></a>, a Rule V selection who will start the second game of the twin bill. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Diamond has been thoroughly mediocre in AAA this year with a 6.65/2.93 K/BB ratio since coming over from the Braves organization in a trade for <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa328093&position=P"><b>Billy Bullock</b></a> that <a href="http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2011/03/twins-trade-billy-bullock-for-scott.html">I really didn't like</a>. He features a fastball in the 88-90mph range with average movement and command, with his best pitch being a 12-6 curve that has at times showed some promise. He'll also show righties a slider and lefties a changeup.<br />
<br />
His stuff is fringy at best and the Twins should do everything in their power to avoid having to rely on him any more than is necessary. Actually, the fact that they've given Diamond the nod over top prospect <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa500733&position=P"><b>Kyle Gibson</b></a> is rather shocking given the latters far superior stuff and the importance of these games with the Indians. <br />
<br />
The second half of the Twins moves was the demotion of utility man <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7365&position=2B/3B"><b>Matt Tolbert</b></a> who has long been a favorite of Manager Ron Gardenhire to make room for left handed reliever <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4886&position=P"><b>Chuck James</b></a> - also a former Brave.<br />
<br />
Tolbert's presence had become a bit redundant given the presence of infielders <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4898&position=1B/2B"><b>Luke Hughes</b></a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7462&position=SS/DH"><b>Trevor Plouffe</b></a>. Still, the fact that Tolbert has long been a player Gardenhire has lauded praise upon makes his demotion at least a little surprising. In James the Twins will be adding another lefty to their bullpen who can help eat up innings over the next few days as a taxed bullpen.<br />
<br />
While James has received a lot of attention from fans and bloggers for his performance in AAA, I'm still skeptical of his ability to contribute a significant number of positive innings at the MLB level, but he should be a better option the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8598&position=P"><b>Phil Dumatrait</b></a>.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-52689564354231813182011-07-17T14:09:00.000-05:002011-07-17T14:09:22.075-05:00Tigers Designate Ryan Perry, Recall AlburquerqueWhen the Tigers placed bullpen phenom <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6324&position=P"><b>Al Alburquerque</b></a> on the disabled list with inflammation in his pitching elbow it was a frightening moment indeed as diagnosis' like elbow inflammation, or elbow/forearm tenderness have a nasty way of turning into, 'will undergo Tommy John surgery.'<br />
<br />
The diagnosis is still worrisome for me, and should be for fans of the Tigers as well but it's obviously good to see that the team did the right thing, placing him on the disabled list immediately instead of asking the player to try and work through it. Not that a fifteen day respite necessarily cures anything if something is seriously wrong, but it's the proper amount of caution in this circumstance.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
In Alburquerque's absence the team gave former setup man and once highly touted prospect <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8799&position=P"><b>Ryan Perry</b> </a>another chance after he missed much of spring training with an eye infection, then was demoted after a series of ugly outings in late May left him with an ERA of 12.19 over his first 10.1 innings of work. He did well with the chance, posting a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings, and striking out six while walking four. <br />
<br />
Where Perry has been successful and a bit lucky since coming back however, Alburquerque has been nothing short of dominant since joining the team two weeks into the season. After making just three appearances for the AAA Mudhens, the team called him up and he's posted an almost unfathomable 14.42 strikeout rate, which, when paired with his 54% groundball rate has more than helped him cover up for a 7.06 walk rate.<br />
<br />
He's accomplished such impressive peripherals with a fastball that averages 95.5mph and a very hard biting slider at 85.7mph that has been one of baseball's most effective pitches. Indeed watching Alburquerquer it's a wonder (and a borderline crime) that two other organizations saw fit to allow him to leave.<br />
<br />
Thankfully for the Tigers however, they did. His presence, along with veterans Benoit and Valverde help make the Tigers bullpen one of the league most stout. Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-8421357381387681922011-07-16T14:58:00.001-05:002011-07-16T15:01:15.449-05:00Carlos Guillen Set to Make His ReturnIn general this years Tigers team hasn't struggled for offense, they're 5th in the AL in runs scored (8th in MLB) and have averaged 4.46 runs per game. Strong marks. They are however extremely top-heavy with five regulars posting OPS marks of .820 or better - one of just three teams that can make the claim.<br />
<br />
The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.<br />
<br />
For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
At second base the Tigers combined 0.1 WAR is 4th worst in baseball. At third they've gotten -0.1 WAR, sixth worst. In center <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9848&position=OF"><b>Austin Jackson</b></a> has given them about 0.9 WAR, still leaving them sixth worst in the game.<br />
<br />
With former MVP <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=248&position=OF"><b>Magglio Ordonez</b></a> beginning to heat up, having hit .302 with a .809 OPS over his last 19 games, the Tigers are hoping that he can provide all the offense with team will need in right, provided he can stay healthy. But that still leaves the three aforementioned positions at which the Tigers would like to improve.<br />
<br />
At third, the Tigers are counting on perennial stalwart <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=470&position=C/3B"><b>Brandon Inge</b></a> to eventually pull himself together, and Jackson is, and will remain the long-term (and short-term) answer in center. <br />
<br />
That leaves second base where the Tigers are currently running out the incredibly disappointing <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2218&position=OF"><b>Ryan Raburn</b></a>. After back-to-back seasons in which Raburn posted OPS marks of .891 and .814, I felt that he would be due for a big year if the Tigers could only give him consistent at-bats. Instead he's regressed significantly, turning in the worst performance of his career while seeing his strikeout rate jump through the roof.<br />
<br />
On top of it all, Detroit compounded the problem when they gave up on <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2881&position=2B/3B"><b>Scott Sizemore</b></a> far too soon, trading him away for the predictably disappointing <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8360&position=P"><b>David Purcey</b></a>. <br />
<br />
Following the trade, Sizemore has seen some small sample size success, posting a .785 OPS over 110 plate appearances for Oakland while Purcey has posted a 4.76 ERA while allowing opposing batters to hit .292/.410/.446.<br />
<br />
The combination of under performance from Raburn and self-inflicted damage from the front office has left the team in a bit of a bind. Enter <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1079&position=SS"><b>Carlos Guillen</b></a>. <br />
<br />
Over the past three years Guillen has spent a significant amount of time on the disabled list, largely due to a pair of balky knees that hasn't allowed him to play more than 113 games since 2007, and that number has declined every year since then as he made just 81 appearances in 2009, and 68 last season.<br />
<br />
When he has been healthy though, he's remained a productive bat, posting OPS marks of .757 and .746 the last two seasons. That's certainly not a sparkling number, but when compared to the combined .595 mark the Tigers have gotten out of their second basemen this year - it's downright golden.<br />
<br />
If he can come back and hit anywhere near as well as he has the past two years and play at least a passable second base, the Tigers could be looking at a player who could provide a full win or more above their current crop of options.<br />
<br />
Guillen is set to return on Sunday, and to make room for him the Tigers have optioned <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=198&position=2B/SS"><b>Danny Worth </b></a>back to AAA. In what is shaping up to be a tight four team race for the Central pennant, his presence could make all the difference.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-56817043430356851462011-07-16T13:03:00.000-05:002011-07-16T13:03:09.535-05:00White Sox Sign Doug DavisIn an effort to shore up their starting pitching depth following the loss of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7541&position=P"><b>Lucas Harrell</b></a> to the waiver wire the White Sox have signed free agent <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1244&position=P"><b>Doug Davis</b></a> to a Minor League contract. The 36 year old Davis is a 12 year veteran of the Major Leagues who started his career with the Rangers. He spent parts of five seasons with them, but is probably best known as a Brewer. Davis had two different stints with the team, first from 2003 through 2006, and he made 8 starts for the team last year.<br />
<br />
In 2004 and 2005 Davis turned in a pair of very good seasons, posting ERAs of 3.39 and 3.84 respectively while throwing over 200 innings in each campaign. He's been decidedly less effective since those seasons however and after signing with the Cubs this offseason got torched for a 6.50 ERA over nine starts before being demoted.<br />
<br />
Davis' peripherals however remain solid as he still sports a K rate over 7.00 with a solid 42.8% GB rate. He has walked far too many but it's certainly possible that, in a pinch, he could deliver some quality innings. And that's precisely what the White Sox are looking for - someone who could be relied upon in a pinch should injuries necessitate the team turning to it's 7th starter.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-55577554044071769882011-07-15T14:43:00.000-05:002011-07-15T14:43:58.738-05:00Young, Plouffe Return for TwinsWhen the Twins decided to demote <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7462&position=SS/DH"><b>Trevor Plouffe</b></a> earlier this season I, along with quite a few others in the blogosphere thought the move was a poor one. Plouffe was hardly an elite prospect entering the 2011 season, but his status as a former first round pick gave some credence to his scorching hot start for the Twins AAA affiliate.<br />
<br />
Sadly the Twins decided to send Plouffe back to AAA despite him showing some glipses of his phenomenal power by hitting three home runs and five total extra base hits in his first 72 Major League plate appearances. The decision was made after Manager Ron Gardenhire repeatedly blasted the young infielder to the media following series of errors.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
The irony of the situation of course is that Gardenhire did nothing but heap praise on import <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11531&position=SS"><b>Tsuyoshi Nishioka</b></a> while making excuse after excuse for his own gaffes. It's a perplexing and disturbing double standard that Gardenhire has long employed on middle infielders who haven't fit his desired mold.<br />
<br />
To Plouffe's credit however he took his demotion well, and while the Twins asked him to learn to play other positions, he just kept hitting homerun after homerun. In his first game back last night, playing as the DH, Plouffe launched his 19th home run of the year, and his 4th at the MLB level in his third trip to plate. That towering shot off the foul pole that put the Twins up 4-3, and they would go on to lead for the rest of the game.<br />
<br />
Where he'll ultimately settle into the lineup - or even IF he'll ultimately settle anywhere - remains to be seen. What can't be disputed is that the Twins need his bat. Not only for the impressive power he provides, but to add balance to a lefty heavy order.<br />
<br />
Of course, Plouffe's call up was just half the story. The Twins also added <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2140&position=OF"><b>Delmon Young</b></a> to the lineup. Young had been out since June 25th following an embarrassing attempt on a fly ball that ultimately led to an inside the park home run and a trip to the DL with a sprained ankle that he suffered when colliding awkwardly with the base of the wall.<br />
<br />
While Young is off to another of his typically slow starts, his bats showed signs of life during his rehab stint as he hit two home runs and three doubles in just 31 AAA at-bats. Then in his first game back he went 3-4 with a pair of doubles and a single, all on crisply hit line drives.<br />
<br />
The Twins need Young, like everyone else on the team to hit well over the second half if they're to continue to claw their way back into a race for a playoff spot and while his defense is consistently atrocious and I'll continue to lobby for his banishment from the outfield, his bat can carry a team when he's hot. <br />
<br />
In order to make room for Young and Plouffe, the Twins have optioned both of their Rene's: <b><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7099&position=OF">Tosoni</a></b> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3648&position=C"><b>Rivera</b></a> to the AAA. Neither player was particularly impressive, but each had their moments as they helped play a role in turning around a Twins team that was decimated by injuries earlier in the year. They should certainly feel good about their contributions, even if their numbers were decidedly uninspired.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-68499687029559413192011-07-13T21:24:00.001-05:002011-07-14T09:29:19.083-05:00Denard Span Set To Begin Rehab AssignmentDespite missing the past month and a half with a concussion <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8347&position=OF"><b>Denard Span</b></a> has still been the Twins team leader in WAR. The fact that he was able to accumulate 2.7 WAR in just over two months of play was remarkable and meant that when he went down, the Twins were left with a massive void in center field to try and fill.<br />
<br />
Thankfully for the Twins rookie <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4712&position=OF"><b>Ben Revere</b></a> stepped up and capably filled his shoes, posting a .275 batting average (empty though it may have been) while playing electrifying defense in center field, and causing havoc on the bases - showing why he's been such a highly regarded prospect for so long now.<br />
<br />
Now Span is ready to begin a rehab assignment, and given that he's missed so much time it's likely the stint will be somewhat lengthy. Twins fans could expect him to play at least a week of games before actually returning to the team. Even then it's likely that he'll have some rust to shake off. <br />
<br />
Regardless, getting a player of Span's caliber back at the top of the lineup where his .750 OPS and .361 OBP can help load the bases for <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C"><b>Joe Mauer</b></a> and Co.. <br />
<br />
What'll be interesting to see is precisely how Manager Ron Gardenhire decides to go about balancing both his bevy of outfielders, as well as his lineups. For now it would seem that the plan would be for <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2140&position=OF"><b>Delmon Young</b></a>, who is set to return tomorrow, to stay in left, Revere to remain in center, and for Span to slide over to right while <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1534&position=OF"><b>Michael Cuddyer</b></a> mans first base.<br />
<br />
Who will bat second is still up in the air however. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5248&position=2B"><b>Alexi Casilla</b></a> has a slightly better OBP than Revere, but Gardy seems to really like Revere's presence at the top of the order, and his elite contact skills would fit Gardy's small-ball style perfectly.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-62031169591318658772011-07-13T14:50:00.000-05:002011-07-13T14:50:22.461-05:00Jeanmar Gomez Poised to Take Talbot's Rotation Spot3.71 - 4.42 - 4.42 - 5.79<br />
<br />
<br />
Those numbers are the combined ERA of the Indians starters for April, May, June, and July respectively, and they show a disturbing downward trend. In 2010 the Indians 4.53 ERA from it's starters was the 2nd worst in the AL, and this years team features essentially the exact same group of arms, with similar results. <br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
After the team roared off to a 18-8 start in April on the back of great starting pitching, both the teams pitching and record come have back to Earth. Indeed, since that 18-8 start to the year, the Indians have actually been a sub-.500 team, going 29-34 over the past two and a half months. <br />
<br />
While the offense, which scored a MLB best 141 (5.42R/Gm) runs during the 18-8 runs has also tapered off significantly to just 3.89 runs per game since then, at least some of that could be explained by the time they missed <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1573&position=DH"><b>Travis Hafner</b></a>, and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3174&position=OF"><b>Shin-Soo Choo</b></a>. <br />
<br />
The pitching however, remains essentially unchanged. This is the same corps of players that was legitimately bad in 2010, and aside from a one month blip to start the year, has looked pretty bad again. <br />
<br />
In response to their continued struggles the team has made the rather obvious decision to replace it's weakest link in <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4961&position=P"><b>Mitch Talbot</b></a> (6.33 ERA - 5.37 FIP) with 23 year old righty <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9033&position=P"><b>Jeanmar Gomez</b></a>.<br />
<br />
Gomez has spent much of the season in AAA so far, but did come up to make three starts earlier in the year. A solid arm, Gomez works in the low 90s and pairs his fastball with a slider and changeup, with the slider being by far the better of the two offerings. In this his second stint at AAA Gomez has made strides with both his strikeout and walk rates and as actually shown success going against the platoon split, with a 3.68 FIP against left handers over the past two seasons, though his stuff suggests that he'll ultimate struggle against lefties unless he improves his changeup. <br />
<br />
Talbot on the other hand is probably just about out of chances. At 28 years old this is the third time he's pitched on an MLB squad and he's never really done anything to suggest he can stick at this level as anything more than a mop-up arm. He's the not-so-proud owner of a career ERA of 5.19 , and his 4.94 FIP, and 5.07/4.12 strikeout to walk ratio suggest that's well deserved.<br />
<br />
It's doubtful that exchanging Talbot for Gomez will provide a spark to the rotation that leads to the Indians climbing up from the bottom of the league ERA rankings, but at this point it's a no-brainer. Talbot has done nothing and Gomez has seen some success at AAA while showing some progress in his stuff.<br />
<br />
In what is shaping up to be a tight race, his presence might only give the Indians one or two more quality starts - but that could make all the difference.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-90470408570466652572011-07-12T14:55:00.000-05:002011-07-12T14:55:03.286-05:00The All AL Central All-Star TeamWith Major League Baseball's All-Star Game scheduled for tonight, it makes sense to me that we should take a look at who the 25 best players from the AL Central are, and put together a roster to take on the rest of the baseball world. Some spots are obvious, others, not so much.<br />
<br />
Disagree with my decisions? Let me know in the comments section.<br />
<br />
C) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7476&position=C"><b>Alex Avila</b></a> (Tigers): .286/.370/.506, 10HR, 2.7 WAR - Perennial All-Star <b>Joe Mauer</b> has been hurt, and ineffective when not hurt. Avila has been a revelation. <br />
1B) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1744&position=1B/3B/OF"><b>Miguel Cabrera</b></a> (Tigers): .311/.430/.549, 18HR, 3.1 WAR - A defensive liability, but an absolute monster at the plate, as his .979 OPS (ho hum) attests. <br />
2B) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9015&position=2B/3B"><b>Gordon Beckham</b></a>: (White Sox): .245/.305/.360, 7HR, 1.1 WAR - Beckham still hasn't blossomed into the player the Sox hoped, but he's the best choice in a very weak field of candidates. <br />
3B) <b><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3692&position=3B">Jack Hannahan</a></b> (Indians): .222/.312/.348, 5HR, 1.2 WAR - A solid FA signing by the Indians, Hannahan kept the spot warm for top prospect <b>Lonnie Chisenhall</b>. <br />
SS) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1738&position=SS"><b>Jhonny Peralta</b></a> (Tigers): .312/.362/.529, 14HR, 3.3 WAR - A dead tie between him and <b>Asdrubal Cabrera</b> in WAR, Peralta has the better wOBA and UZR.<br />
LF) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5209&position=3B/OF"><b>Alex Gordon</b></a> (Royals): .299/.367/.483, 11HR, 3.4 WAR - The WAR leader amongst AL Central position players. Seriously. Finally becoming the player the Royals always hoped he would.<br />
CF) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4022&position=OF"><b>Melky Cabrera</b></a> (Royals): .293/.332/.455, 11HR, 3.0 WAR - Perhaps the best dollar/performance FA signing in baseball this year, Cabrera signed for just 1.25m. <br />
RF) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6274&position=OF"><b>Carlos Quentin</b></a> (White Sox): .251/.350/.502, 17HR, 2.4 WAR - Experiencing a resurgent season, tied with <b>Brennan Boesch</b> in WAR. Get's nod for playing more in RF than Boesch.<br />
DH) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1573&position=DH"><b>Travis Hafner</b></a> (Indians): .325/.406/.528, 8HR, 1.5 WAR - PRONK SMASH! Indeed.<br />
<br />
BN) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2396&position=C"><b>Carlos Santana</b></a> (Indians): .230/.363/.418, 13HR, 2.1 WAR - Hampered by a very slow start, bat has started to click the past couple months. <br />
BN) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=914&position=OF"><b>Brennan Boesch</b></a> (Tigers): .306/.360/.490, 12HR, 2.4 WAR - Proving that 2010 season wasn't a fluke. <br />
BN) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4962&position=2B/SS"><b>Asdrubal Cabrera</b></a> (Indians): .293/.347/.489, 14HR, 3.3 WAR - Missed being the starting SS by the thinnest of margins.<br />
BN) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5133&position=SS"><b>Alexi Ramirez</b></a> (White Sox): .274/.331/.414, 9HR, 3.2 WAR - The AL Central boasts the three best shortstops in the AL (by WAR). <br />
<br />
SP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8700&position=P"><b>Justin Verlander</b></a> (Tigers): 151 IP, 2.15 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 4.5 WAR - You don't really need an explanation, do you?<br />
SP)<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2038&position=P"><b> Justin Masterson</b></a> (Indians): 121.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 2.9 WAR - Helping to corner the market in dominating starters with 'Justin' as their first name.<br />
SP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6176&position=P"><b>Scott Baker</b></a> (Twins): 110.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 2.2 WAR - The only Twins player actually deserving of the name All-Star (and only in an all ALC context). <br />
SP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8586&position=P"><b>Philip Humber</b></a> (White Sox): 105.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 2.2 WAR - While Melky is probably the best FA signing of the year, Humber is hands down the finest waiver acquisition.<br />
SP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=225&position=P"><b>Mark Buehrle</b></a> (White Sox): 121.0, 3.42 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 2.0 WAR - <br />
<br />
RP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4078&position=P"><b>Rafeal Perez</b></a> (Indians): 37.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.8 WAR - Experiencing a real career revival.<br />
RP) <b><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4782&position=P">Vinnie Pestano</a></b> (Indians): 33.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 0.8 WAR - Key reason why the Indians bullpen has been one of the best in baseball. <br />
RP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7196&position=P"><b>Greg Holland</b></a> (Royals): 25.0 IP, 1.08, 2.32 FIP, 0.8 WAR - A late callup building off his promising 2010 showing, Holland has been nothing less than lights-out.<br />
RP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10149&position=P"><b>Aaron Crow</b></a> (Royals): 43.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 0.3 WAR - The Royals have leaned on this starter-turned reliever to hold any close lead late in games. <br />
RP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6324&position=P"><b>Al Albuquerque</b></a> (Tigers): 29.0 IP, 2.79 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 0.9 WAR - Has used his hot fastball, frightening lack of control, and devastating slider to shut down opponents. <br />
RP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4734&position=P"><b>Sergio Santos</b></a> (White Sox): 42.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.1 WAR - Continued his meteoric rise from obscure MiLB infielder, to MLB closer.<br />
RP) <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8041&position=P"><b>Glen Perkins</b></a> (Twins): 33.2IP, 1.87ERA, 1.98 FIP, 1.2 WAR - Fulfilling the potential he had prior to arm surgery years ago.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-39967467939789804732011-07-11T14:37:00.002-05:002011-07-12T16:54:26.594-05:00Would Calling Up Jacob Turner Be The Right Decision?In truth, this is really a three-piece discussion with the first question being: how did we get to this point?; the second question being: is <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa500723&position=P"><b>Jacob Turner</b></a> the best pitcher available to fill the role of 5th starter on the Tigers?; and the third question being: is he ready to get Major League hitters out?<br />
<br />
Let's start with the first question: How did we get to this point?<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<a href="http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2011/01/armando-galarraga-fiasco-and-my-outrage.html">As I discussed this off season</a> when the Tigers decided to let <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4222&position=P"><b>Armando Galarraga</b></a> walk, the teams decision to DFA him was a questionable one at best. For one thing, it was completely unnecessary. While the signing of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=535&position=P"><b>Brad Penny</b></a> left Galarraga without a role in the starting rotation, there was no reason he couldn't have stayed on as a long reliever.<br />
<br />
Instead they opened the season with <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2568&position=P"><b>Enrique Gonzalez</b></a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5180&position=P"><b>Brayan Villarreal</b></a> as their long men. Gonzalez, who had amassed a 5.81 career ERA over five seasons split between four teams was essentially every bit as good (or bad) as one could've expected, allowing seven earned runs in 5.1 innings, before being demoted on April 19th. Villareal who has solid stuff but had never thrown an inning above AA entering the 2011 season also, predictably, got chewed up and spat out, allowing 11 earned runs in 15.1 innings of work before being demoted on May 20th.<br />
<br />
Shortly after Villarreal was demoted, the Tigers rotation hit the skids, with essentially everyone not named <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8700&position=P"><b>Justin Verlander</b></a> cratering. That set in motion a laughably foreseeable turn of events <a href="http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2011/06/swapping-problems-isnt-solution.html">in which the Tigers traded one under-tooled left handed problem for another</a>.<br />
<br />
And so here we are. The Tigers hold a tenuous half-game lead in the AL Central over a surprising Indians team, but they're learning that they only have four competent starters. And given that all three of the other starters have ERAs of at least 4.50 (MLB average is just 3.95) - it's a stretch even to say the team even has four competent arms.<br />
<br />
It's more like Verlander, and three other guys pitching like 5th starters. <br />
<br />
To be clear, Galarraga hasn't been anything special himself, accumulating a 5.91 ERA in 42.2 innings of work for the Diamondbacks before being demoted on May 15th - but he could've at least offered the team another option.<br />
<br />
Now we're left to wonder whether a twenty year old, who has been more good than great in AA, is really the best option for a Major League team in a pennant race.<br />
<br />
Sadly the answer to that question is a solid: maybe.<br />
<br />
While <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1370&position=P"><b>Charlie Furbush</b></a> had an abbreviated two-start audition that saw him perform even worse than the man (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1370&position=P"><b>Phil Coke</b></a>) he was replacing, it's likely that the team was as thoroughly underwhelmed by his stuff as I was before the experiment began. Indeed, despite a terrible end to his career as a starter, given his 4.05 ERA overall, Coke might be the best option to round out the rotation right now.<br />
<br />
The team however seems to have given up on him even though he showed three solid offerings while posting solid if unspectacular peripherals, preferring to isolate him against lefties as much as possible. <br />
<br />
That leaves the Tigers in the same bind they were in before: needing a 5th starter.<br />
<br />
With all other options having been exhausted, it seems that the team might now consider bringing their top prospect, the right handed Turner, into the fold. <br />
<br />
I've had the opportunity to watch Turner a lot. I caught no fewer than six of his starts last year, and another 5 this season, and I've come away as impressed as anyone else. For a twenty year old, Turner shows a feel for pitching that seems beyond his years. He pitches aggressively with his fastball, a two-seamer that he locates quite well, even if it doesn't generate ideal movement at 92-94mph.<br />
<br />
Turner complements the fastball with a curveball that flashes plus. Sometimes the pitch generates great, late bite at 76-78mph and can produce some really ugly swings from the Minor Leaguers he's facing. The problem is that he's very inconsistent with the pitch and all too often he loses his arm-slot and the ball will either hump or just spin. It'll almost certainly be a consistently plus offering with time (I gave it a potential 70 grade in <a href="http://centralinfocus.blogspot.com/2011/02/prospect-profile-jacob-turner.html">my pre-season scouting report of Turner</a>) but it isn't yet.<br />
<br />
He'll also shown a solid changeup, and I concur with other prospect watchers who say that pitch has made the most progress this season. While I graded the pitch as a 50 current offering before the season, I'd call it a 60 right now - and I'd bump my potential grade on the pitch from 60 to 65-70. It's getting better depth than it was before and has become a much more effective weapon against lefties.<br />
<br />
The problem is that right now, it's hard for me to see how he has any more success at this level than, say, Coke. His stuff is good, and could one day be really good. But while his fastball has some zip and he locates the pitch well, his secondary offerings aren't there yet. Yes the curveball looks unhittable at times, but he has poor command of it, and it's inconsistent. The changeup is becoming more consistent, and I think he's actually probably more effective against lefties than righties right now as a result.<br />
<br />
But is that enough to translate as a quality MLB arm? Color me skeptical.<br />
<br />
Like any pitcher making his first trip through the league however, Turner would have the advantage of not having been seen before and there is a never ending list of guys who've looked like certain All-Star during those first couple trips through the league. For evidence of that, Tigers fans need look no further than their own <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P"><b>Rick Porcello</b></a>, who dominated the AL for one season on smoke and mirrors before getting figured out.<br />
<br />
This is where my "maybe," assessment comes from.<br />
<br />
Could Turner have some success as a starter over half a season? Sure, plenty of guys have.<br />
<br />
But is his stuff really ready to succeed at this level long-term? Probably not.<br />
<br />
And so the Tigers brass has to ask themselves some tough questions: would the chance that Turner could provide a spark in the rotation outweigh the potential damage that could be done to his development? Would they be better served trying to acquire another mediocre starter via trade?<br />
<br />
These are the questions that make being an MLB General Manager tough.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-19036855731500882442011-07-11T02:03:00.002-05:002011-07-11T02:14:12.124-05:00The Nightly Note: America's Finest MomentIf you're an American who has, through decades of under promoted and unexciting women's sports, become complacent about women's sports in general, you could be forgiven for missing yesterday's World Cup match between the United States and their arch-rival Brazil. After all when the biggest thing going in women's professional athletics is the WNBA, well, it's just hard to get too worked up. Add in the fact that futbol (or as we say it in this country, soccer) just isn't very popular in the States, and it's a perfect storm of American disinterest.<br />
<br />
But if you're into watching top flight competition, on the grandest of a sports stages, then you should've been watching the women's World Cup. The US women's squad not only has a history of success (unlike the men) they're a perennial favorite, and for the casual fan the difference between the men's and women's games is hardly noticeable. <br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
For those of you who aren't familiar, Brazil is probably the world's most talented squad in terms of measurables. Their players are fast, they're strong on the ball, and exceptionally creative, and they're led by the world's best player (by a lot) - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marta_Vieira_da_Silva"><b>Marta</b></a>.<br />
<br />
They're also the world's most perpetually underachieving team.<br />
<br />
Having never won a major tournament, the Brazilian's have been both incredibly unlucky, and a frequent victim of US keeper <a href="http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lo4nsx7nqz1qbvblfo1_500.jpg"><b>Hope Solo</b></a> as <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3N-G2-hzvE">this video</a> of her making an incredible save against Marta to preserve the US lead in the 2008 Olympic Gold Medal Game can attest. The Brazilian Squad, known as the Samba Queens, has finished as the runner up in the Olympics twice and the World Cup once. <br />
<br />
Always bridesmaids, as they say. <br />
<br />
Worse still, it seems that every year it's been the US squad that's outed them. With the exception of a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Brazilian's in the World Cup in 2007, the United States has beaten them in their past seven matches, including the last four in a row leading up to this.<br />
<br />
So when the two teams met again on the pitch in a quarterfinals matchup, the match needed no buildup.<br />
<br />
To be certain, this wasn't the 1980 Men's Hockey Team - that team was made up of college kids going up against an undefeatable powerhouse with nothing less than the Soviet-US rivalry on the line. But it was a US team that had just gotten handled - especially on their defensive line - by Sweden in a 2-1 loss, and their opponent was still the extraordinarily talented Brazil, a squad with a huge motivation to beat them.<br />
<br />
At the outset of the match the US women, clad in all black uniforms that must've had the players sweltering under the sun in weather that reached 90 degrees outside the stadium - and must've been considerably hotter on the pitch - received an enormous break when a crossing pass from US midfielder <a href="http://olympics.wikia.com/wiki/Shannon_Boxx"><b>Shannon Boxx</b></a> deflected off Brazilian defender <a href="http://www4.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Daiane+Brazil+v+USA+FIFA+Women+World+Cup+2011+0J8SbhPgpxDl.jpg"><b>Daiane</b></a> and into her own net for an early 1-0 US lead. <br />
<br />
The match would go on without anything particularly notable happening through half time. Both teams had a couple of opportunities, and each squad sent a ball off the cross bar, one on a long volley from a Brazilian midfielder and one off a header from a corner kick by US midfielder <a href="http://soccer.teamusa.org/athletes/carli-lloyd"><b>Carli Lloyd</b></a>. Beyond that, the Two teams played an evenly matched game with neither team seeming to be able to create in scoring range.<br />
<br />
Of course, it was in the 66th minute that the match would take a controversial turn, and the truly historic nature of the match would begin to take shape.<br />
<br />
At that point <b>Marta</b> showed her real brilliance on a deep run into American territory. After seemingly being trapped by a pair of American defenders, she flipped the ball over their heads, cut behind and she and American defender <b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Buehler">Rachel Buehler</a> </b>raced for the loose ball. Diving feet first in the air, both players seemed to get to it at the same moment and it trickled harmlessly into the waiting hands of Solo.<br />
<br />
Referee <b>Jacqui Melksham</b> however saw it differently.<br />
<br />
Instead of allowing play to continue she not only awarded a penalty kick to the Brazilian's, but gave a red card to Buehler which not only meant she was ejected from the game, but that the US would have to play the remainder of the match a player down.<br />
<br />
For those of you who are unfamiliar with the game of futbol, it's hard to describe how incredibly devastating that turn of events was. Not only is a penalty kick, which is taken from a mere twelve yards away, essentially impossible to stop - the US would now not only have to somehow survive to full time a player down to the world most talented team, a staggering 23 minutes away - they'd then have to play through two more 15 minute extra-time periods before reaching penalty kicks.<br />
<br />
A truly staggering task in which the US women would have to run an incredible 53 minutes a player down. <br />
<br />
Then something incredible happened - Solo actually stopped the penalty kick of exceptionally talented Brazilian striker <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cristiane"><b>Christiane</b></a> on an amazing diving save. <br />
<br />
However in her second controversial call in minutes, <b>Melksham </b>called the teams back, claiming that Solo had left her line prior to the shot (goalkeepers are required to keep their feet on the goal line until the penalty shot is taken). At that point the Brazilian's sent <b>Marta</b> to the line and she buried the second opportunity.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/M5znnDb0dR4" width="425"></iframe><br />
<br />
The United States squad never wavered though. Instead of hanging their heads in defeat or capitulating in the face of overwhelmingly long odds, the team rose to the challenge.<br />
<br />
Flexing their incredible conditioning the US squad not only survived a player down, they started to wrest away control of the game, consistently outrunning the Samba Queen's despite having to cover significantly more ground than the Brazilian's given that they were playing a woman short.<br />
<br />
When the US made it to full time tied, it seemed as though it might, just might be possible.<br />
<br />
But in just the third minute of the first 15 minute extra time period Marta once again proved why she's the best player in the world. Taking a cross from the left side, Marta, positioned at the near post flipped the ball over the head of her marker and past Solo, sneaking the ball in at the far post.<br />
<br />
It was a play that only she could make, and it was truly brilliant. <br />
<br />
Now down 2-1, and down a player to a team that could simply pack the defense in with the first extra-time period coming to an end, the odds for the US squad were not only long, they may as well have been non-existent.<br />
<br />
Seemingly understanding that they couldn't beat the Brazilian's straight up with their passing in the scoring area, the United States squad had been playing most of the game for corner kicks. Hoping that they could play a ball in and find a fortuitous header. For the most part they executed the strategy well, but one after another, the attempts were cleared by the Samba Queens.<br />
<br />
Then as the second extra-time period expired, the referee's awarded eight minutes of stoppage time (largely due to stalling by the Brazilian's which drew heavy boos from the crowd). All that stood between the Brazilian's and the vanquishing of their long-time foe was eight minutes. <br />
<br />
One by one, those minutes ticked by.<br />
<br />
116, 117, 118, 119, 120...<br />
<br />
Following a long clearance of an extremely dangerous opportunity by the Brazilian's that could've very well put them up 3-1, and a strike that went just high by <b>Lloyd</b>, the American's in the 122 minute got the ball to midfielder <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megan_Rapinoe"><b>Megan Rapinoe</b></a> - a player who had drawn my ire throughout the match for turning the ball over nearly every time she touched it - who dribbled the ball up the left sideline, and with a left footed strike, let a long volley fly...<br />
<br />
Waiting on the other end was the most prolific goal scorer in United States history, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abby_Wambach"><b>Abby Wambach</b></a>.<br />
<br />
The 31 year old Wambach who had, for many years been one of the top players in the world, had looked like a shadow of her former self throughout much of the tournament. Gone was the pace [speed] that had once allowed her to run past defenders. Despite her age however, Wambach was still a savvy veteran, and a capable player on set pieces with her ability to leap over her markers.<br />
<br />
And this time the oft-errant Rapinoe's volley found it's intended destination. The ball, sent in from nearly 30 yards away sailed perfectly over a leaping defenders head, and past the outstretched arms of the desperate diving goal-keeper - and onto the waiting forehead of Wambach, who buried the ball into the back right of the net.<br />
<br />
2-2. <br />
<br />
The goal ignited nothing short of pure mayhem. As Wambach sprinted toward the sideline in jubilation, her teammates mobbed her and the stadium erupted. <br />
<br />
The Brazilian's just looked on dejected, stunned by the horrendous turn of their own fate.<br />
<br />
Nothing I can say of course, could surpass seeing the moment yourself. <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/JOAJn8h6VAI" width="425"></iframe><br />
<br />
That goal, dramatic as it was however, only set up a finish that would have to be decided on penalty kicks. <br />
<br />
For that, the US would have the advantage with <b>Hope Solo</b>, probably the finest keeper on the planet in their net.<br />
<br />
Through two rounds the two teams stayed even, with both sides burying their opportunities with little difficulty. Then Solo made her presence known, making an unfathomable, fully extended, mid-air, diving stop against <b>Dainae</b> (who was responsible for the own-goal earlier), on a ball to her right to give the US the advantage.<br />
<br />
With four rounds complete, the United States was up 4-3, and if they could bury their next one, it would be all over.<br />
<br />
Taking the final kick for the US would be defender <b>Ali Kreiger</b>, a late entry since the player originally expected to take the shot, <b>Rachel Buehler</b>, has been ejected earlier.<br />
<br />
12 years ago to the day was the day that the US women beat team China on penalty kicks to win the 1999 World Cup, an iconic moment that will be forever remembered by <a href="http://jolalde.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/brandi-chastain.jpg"><b>Brandi Chastain's</b> topless celebration</a>.<br />
<br />
With cool resolve the unlikely replacement grounded a ball into the far left corner past the diving keeper, and the celebration was on.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/gWWg2qOIZxc" width="560"></iframe><br />
<br />
It may not have been USA vs the Soviet Union in 1980, but if you care at all about the spectacle of sport, the thrill of competition, this contest has to rate as one of the greatest moments in US sports history.<br />
<br />
A player down against a superior team, the United States found a way to succeed where almost anyone else would've failed. They had to play nearly 55 minutes at a grave disadvantage, to a point where other, lesser athletes would've caved to their exhaustion. Down a player and down a goal in the waning seconds of the contest this team rose to the moment, and became champions. <br />
<br />
While the team may have lacked the pure skill and talent of their opponents, they displayed characteristics that are incredibly American: tenacity, courage, and perseverance.Corey Ettingerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04781991198791295874noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3527677219703079273.post-50767275090729971862011-07-10T23:49:00.006-05:002011-07-11T02:08:33.008-05:00Diminishing Skills<div>What has happened to one of the most productive and consistent power hitter over the last 6 years, Adam Dunn? Even if he was to double his first half production during the second half he would not touch his expected production. Many people have speculated, from everyday regular fans all the way to future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, reasons why, from position switch to league switch to mechanical issues, but could diminishing skills be to blame?<br />
<br />
In an earlier interview Dunn was quoted as saying “I would like to blame it on swinging at bad pitches, but I’m not doing that” at first glance that seems true; he is taking walks, with 46 so far this year. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different story. Dunn has been swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, in his career he has swung at pitches outside the strike zone at an average of 18.9%, this year though he has swung at 26.9% pitches outside of the strike zone. In addition, he is striking out at a 44% rate this year in comparison to a 33.4% rate for his career which indicates the 8% increase in pitches swung at outside the strike zone along with the 11% increase in strike outs would indicate he is not seeing the ball as well as he may think.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Along with striking out at a much higher percentage Dunn has also, seemingly, lost some strength. This is due to his drastically lower Home Run/ Flyball (HR/FB) ratio numbers. In his career 21.7% of Dunn flyballs have gone out of the park, this year that ratio has dropped to 10.5%, an 11% decline. The problem being, his flyball rate has not gone down; in fact it’s gone slightly up. Therefore he’s hitting the same number of flyballs with fewer going out of the park, in a more hitter friendly ballpark. Therefore, flyballs that used to go out, now become fly-outs.</div><br />
<div>Finally, Dunn’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is nearing a career low, .246. Typically an extremely low BABIP indicates a hitters lack of “luck”. The league average is .300, when a hitter is as far below as Dunn the popular thinking is that he will regress towards the mean. In Dunn’s case, I feel, this means that he in fact has lost the “understanding” of his hitting because he has lost power, a fact I feel I have laid out here, especially with so many of his hits being flyballs.<br />
<br />
Could these drops in numbers be simply from the switching of leagues or positions or even teams? Even though Dunns “counting numbers” (HR’s, Hit’s etc.) have been mostly consistent over the last 6 years, his “rate numbers” (HR/FB, BABIP etc.) have been trending downward.</div><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5627954320515982290" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rrOXIcHpIZ4/ThqCouZ649I/AAAAAAAAAAQ/JbdbN-APwpI/s320/Dunn%2BGraphs.bmp" style="cursor: hand; display: block; height: 298px; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; width: 320px;" /><br />
<br />
<div>For instance you notice his HR/FB rate has been steadily trending downward and his K% has been trending upward two scary trends. These decreses in rate numbers show a hitter that has been slowly declining. These trends point to his skills slowly declining</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0