AL Central In Focus

Jose Valverde: Adjusting Value Based on Leverage

2011-12-26T21:13:00.003-06:00

In an interesting week on fangraphs.com, Jack Moore published several interesting and probably long overdue articles on reliever leverage and how it pertains to their value as indicated by their free agent salary (Overdue generally, not from Jack Moore specifically). Through these articles, Jack Moore analyzes WPA as a possible measuring tool for determining reliever salary as opposed to the conventional $/WAR measures because relievers, unlike other players, largely have their leverage determined for them by coaching decisions. As a result, relievers signed to be put in high leverage situations by their coaching staffs probably have their value unfairly determined to be albatross by traditional measures.

With this new and probably superior way of thinking of high leverage relievers available to us, it makes sense to analyze reliever performance incorporating both expected performance in terms of WAR and in terms of leverage. Jose Valverde, in particular, is an interesting case from a number of different perspectives. Valverde has outperformed his expected FIP and xFIP over the course of his career by a considerable margin, one that probably cannot be ignored. In addition, Valverde’s actual value to the Tigers must be analyzed in terms of his leverage as well as traditional value measurements.

When you combine all these facets together, what you have is a big complicated mess as to Valverde’s actual value that I will attempt to sort through in an efficient matter if at all possible. Valverde has, at least in smaller samples, demonstrated an ability to somehow ‘survive’ 9^th inning save opportunities while giving up the majority of his earned runs in non-save situations. Is it even remotely possible that this could be a skill? Does Valverde have a second gear when he is saving games? As I said before, Valverde is an interesting case.

For his career, Valverde has 242 saves to 30 blown saves. Over the last two years as a Tiger, Valverde has 75 saves to 3 blown saves, a ratio far superior to his career numbers. Valverde has increased his GB rate and his HR/FB rate is down however, Valverde’s K% has decreased while his BB% has increased. As a result, it is difficult to say that Valverde has shown any significant improvement as a pitcher even if his peripheral profile is a bit different.

Since Valverde is clearly a pitcher who is ‘changing’ since his arrival with the Tigers for good or bad, I will try to look only at his stats as a Tiger. Furthermore, I will assume at the beginning of this analysis that Valverde cannot actively change his walks, strikeouts and home runs based on whether he is trying to save a game or not. Valverde has pitched 135.1 innings as a Tiger with 132 K’s, 66 walks, and 10 home runs. While Valverde has largely outperformed his FIP and xFIP, he matches up very well with the more robust SIERA regression with a 3.07 SIERA as opposed to a 3.02 era career. Despite the discrepancy over the last two years, I think SIERA correlates well enough with Valverde that we can use it as an approximation going forward for Valverde’s expected performance.

Next we have to consider Valverde’s leverage. Unfortunately WPA (Win Probability Added) is entirely results based rather than regressed based on expected performance. In addition WPA does not consider marginal benefits (the over replacement part of WAR). Valverde’s cumulative WPA for the 2011 season was 4.168 and 1.31 in 2010. Valverde’s WAR over the same two year period was 1.6. As you can see, WPA gives credit to Valverde for over 5 wins while WAR gives him credit for under 2.

Valverde’s actual value to the Tigers over this time is probably somewhere between those two numbers. Valverde did add about 5.47 actual wins in probability form to the Tigers, but his replacement could have done feasibly almost as well. Further, as we can see from the numbers, Valverde had a 3 era in 2010 and a 2.24 era in 2011 as opposed to a 3.47 and 3.58 SIERA in both seasons. This makes it highly likely that Valverde benefited from some good fortune, good defense, or both.

If we first regress Valverde’s two year performance to his SIERA we get:

63inn/9inn = 7 x 3.47 = 24.29 runs; 72.33 inn/9inn = 8.036 x 3.58 = 28.77 runs + 24.29 runs =~ 53 runs in 135.33 innings

This result gives approximately .392 runs/inning regressed. This essentially provides a probability for Valverde giving up a single run in an inning. We can roughly estimate the probability of Valverde giving up additional runs by treating each run as an independent event per inning making the probability p = .392^N where N = runs.

When we consider leverage we really are only concerned with situations in which the score is close, possibly within 3 runs or so each way. The greatest gains in WPA occur when the score is tied or the lead is one run and Valverde pitches a scoreless inning. For the purposes of this study, I will analyze Valverde as if WPA is park neutral for simplicity. In this case, the home team at the top of the 9^th inning has odds of winning of 83.8%, 92.7% and 96.7% for one, two and three runs respectively while they have a 50% chance of winning when entering tied but a 63.8% chance entering the bottom of the inning tied. For the away team it is 80%, 91% and 96% in the bottom of the 9^th.

Now Valverde, the opposition, and the park environment will all have some impact on these win odds; an inherent flaw in this analysis. However, these numbers give a good approximation without getting too detailed.

Additionally a problem we have in this attempt is that this analysis would require normalizing leverage because the leverage Valverde actually experienced is not predictive. However since I am more concerned about Valverde’s value as depicted by WPA, WAR and my middle ground analysis, I will use his actual opportunities.

Between the 2010 and 2011 season, Valverde appeared in 14 one run away games, 9 one run home games, 15 tie games, 18 two run away games, 11 two run home games, 6 three run away games, 16 three run home games, 7 four run away games, and 10 four run home games. In addition he appeared in a couple eight inning two run 1 outs situations which are high enough leverage to matter.

I am now going to use a simple cheat to determine how much of his WPA he would be expected to capture because there is no precise mathematical formula to find the win probability at different run levels. I will discount Valverde’s WPA based on the probability of him capturing the positive WPA with an attempt to estimate the negative value of the blown chance added in (note there are additional levels of "blown" chances if he gives up more than the tying runs but probability is low enough that the subtracted value is not enough to play out, I suppose I could more accurately use some series to get the value but I decided not to go that far):

Away:

1 Run = .2 wp x 14 games x (1 - .392 SIERA) - .3 x 14 x .392 = .357 adjuted WPA

2 Run = .09 wp x 18 games x (1 - .392^2 SIERA) - .41 x 18 x .392^2 = .55 adjusted WPA

3 Run = .04 wp x 6 games x (1 - .392^3 SIERA) - .46 x 6 x .392^3 = .112 adjusted WPA

4 Run = .018 wp x 7 games x (1 - .392^4 SIERA) - .482 x 7 x .392^4 = .11 adjusted WPA

Home:

1 Run = .162 wp x 9 games x (1 - .392 SIERA) - .2 x 9 x .392 = .321 adjusted WPA

2 Run = .073 wp x 11 game x (1 - .392^2 SIERA) - .297 x 11 x .392^2 = .18 adjusted WPA

3 Run = .033 wp x 16 games x (1 - .392^3 SIERA) - .329 x 16 x .392^3 = .17 adjusted WPA

4 Run = .015 wp x 10 games x (1 - .392^4 SIERA) - .347 x 10 x .392^4 = .06 adjuted WPA

Ties = .138 wp x 15 games (1 - .392) - .138 x 15 x .392 = .44 adjuted WPA

Total Adjusted WPA = 2.3

As a result, when we adjust Valverde’s leveraged situation with some linear weight calibrations (SIERA) we can see his win probability added is much closer to his WAR although still slightly higher because of the fact that he is intentionally put in high leverage spots. According to the market that means Valverde was actually worth something around 10.35 million to 11.5 million over the last two years a/k/a between 5-6 million a season.

Now there are still two things to take away from this analysis. First, these are largely rough estimates based on all the factors I mentioned above. Second, the adjusted WPA is still NOT in Above Replacement or WPAAR (Win Probability Added Above Replacement) form. The key for the 'above replacement' adjustment is to determine the proper replacement in this case and then to discount that from the adjusted WPA value. In this case, we can probably assume Valverde would be replaced by the AVERAGE BULLPEN ARM. Keep in mind here I said, average bullpen arm and NOT minor league replacement player. This is because we are accounting for leverage in this calculation and Valverde’s leverage situations are likely to be overtaken by somebody with major league caliber talent. In other words, his replacement is already a major leaguer in the same bullpen, he’s just pitching low to no leverage situations. (This assumes the high leverage set up guy moves up to closer, and non leverage pitcher comes into high leverage spots. There is a leverage difference between setup and closer on down the line so this again is a rough estimate.) Third, I have not attempted to study whether Valverde could possibly adjust his performance based on the leverage at hand. Although I believe that to be unlikely, it is probably a scenario that should be considered in light of the fact that Valverde has not “failed” at anywhere near his expected rate.

If you then want to consider WPAAR, from 2010-2011 the average relief pitcher in the MLB has a SIERA ER/IP of .392! That is exactly the same number as Jose Valverde! As a result, when you consider leverage value, Jose Valverde has a 0 WPAAR (based on his own "chances" the replacement pitcher would have an identical WPA value)! Now based on how we have defined everything it is important to consider that a relief pitcher with a WPAAR of 0 still has a positive actual WAR. What is also says is that the average MLB relief pitcher should be able to get you a WPA of around 2 over two years, or 1 WPA/year. What this might indicate in Jose Valverde’s situation is that he might not offer you any value above the average reliever you could put in a high leverage situation such as the role of “Closer”.

The only thing I have yet to consider is whether Valverde might have the ability to better his production based on high leverage situations so as to be a positive WPAAR player.

Felipe Paulino Enjoys a Breakout Following Trade to Kansas City

2011-10-16T23:05:00.004-05:00

Of all the acquisitions made in the AL Central this season the most meaningful might be one you never heard of, namely the Royals acquisition of Felipe Paulino from the Rockies for cash considerations. The move was made back in late May after Paulino, who was once a well regarded pitching prospect in the Astros system was traded to the Rockies for Clint Barmes, following the 2010 season.

I wrote briefly about the move back in June after Paulino made his debut for the Royals with four solid outings, throwing 21 innings while striking out 16 and walking just 4 saying;

"I don't expect Paulino to maintain the role he's on. He's been buoyed by some good luck and ground ball/walk rates that don't mesh with his career track record. But he is a talented arm, and has the ability to miss enough bats, while getting enough ground balls to be a capable member of a Major League rotation, or potentially a dominant member of a bullpen."

Over his next six starts Paulino would have just two quality starts and got hit rather hard, posting a 5.22 ERA over 39.2 innings of work. But a deeper look at the peripherals showed he was still pitching rather well, as he struck out 43 in that span while walking just 11 for a K/BB raio just a tick under 4. But where he benefitted from a .242 BABIP over the first four starts, he suffered from a .404 mark over his next six.

Nevertheless over those 60.2 innings Paulino had allowed an opponents OPS of just .704 despite being the victim of a .345 BABIP while striking out 59 and walking 15 and getting ground balls on 49% of his balls in play. All very good marks.Overall Paulino's 4.11 ERA in his 124.2 innings of work as a starter for the Royals was the best mark of his career - something that speaks to how bad he's been. But the fact that he posted peripherals strong enough to warrant such success, with a K rate of 8.59 (career best), walk rate of 3.46 (slightly better than his career average), and a ground ball rate of 44.8% (slightly better than his career average) is promising.

It's worth noting however that Paulino like the Marlins Ricky Nolasco has simply never been as good as his peripherals suggest he ought to be. While Paulino's career 4.18 career FIP and even better career 4.04 xFIP suggest he should be a solid #3 type of starter, his career 5.28 ERA isn't anywhere close to where we would project it to be. That's mostly because his career BABIP of .340 is about as bad as I've ever seen for a pitcher with at least 300 MLB innings.

Indeed, all Paulino really accomplished during his stint with the Royals was to live up to his career FIP projections.

Luke Hochevar's Hot Second Half - And What It Means For 2012.

2011-10-16T18:31:00.000-05:00

Of all the unheralded story lines from the AL Central's second half, perhaps the most prominent would be the lack of discussion concerning Luke Hochevar's second half. Hochevar, who was a hard-throwing standout at the University of Tennessee where he was named SEC pitcher of the year in 2005, is probably best known for his refusal to sign after being drafted 40th overall by the Dodgers in 2005 before engaging in a rather epic signing process; playing hardball along with his agent Scott Boras, firing Boras, accepting a lesser offer with his new agent, then firing him and resigning with Boras while reneging on his previously agreed upon deal, and finally playing Independent league baseball until the 2006 draft where he was taken again.

Got all that? Yeah, it's confusing.

When the Royals took him 1st overall in the '06 draft they knew it would take a fortune to sign him and they doled out a 3.5m signing bonus and a four year MLB deal worth at least 5.3m guaranteed. While it took him just over two months to sign, he did manage to make his professional debut for the Royals, throwing 15.1 strong innings for class A affiliate Burlington.

His second season saw him pitch well at AA, striking out a batter per inning while posting a 3.6 K/BB ratio before earning a promotion to AAA where he struggled for perhaps the first time in his life. While pitching for AAA Omaha he would post a strikeout rate of just 6.8, a walk rate of 3.3 and an ERA of 5.12. Despite these struggles, and perhaps feeling pressured by his big signing bonus and MLB contract which had his option years slipping away, the Royals promoted him to the Majors at the end of the 2007 season and saw him throw 12.1 innings in which he struggled to miss bats but enjoyed some small sample size ERA success.

Since then it's largely been a series of ups and downs, at least as it pertains to where he was pitching, as his consistently down performance forced the Royals to bounce him between time at AAA and the Majors while Hochevar struggled to translate the success he had in the lower levels of the minors to the Majors.

Through July 9th of this year, Hochevar had thrown a total of 506.1 innings for the Royals, accumulating a career strikeout rate of 5.67, walk rate of 2.38, and an ERA of 5.56. In short, he was absolutely awful.

But then something weird happened over this seasons second half - Luke got good. Really good.

Over his final 10 starts of 2011, Hochevar threw 67 strong innings, posting a 3.49 ERA, a strikeout rate of 8.32, and a walk rate of 2.42 while opponents hit just .226 with a .628 OPS against him. It was, by far, the best stretch of his Major League career.

The logical questions of course are why, and can it continue?

By looking at the Pitch FX data from the beginning of the season, and the data from his final ten starts, I notice two primary differences. First, he utilizes his mix of fastballs (four seamer, cutter, and sinker) about 10% less, and his slider about 10% percent more than he did over the first four months of the year. Second, that slider is getting significantly increased movement, getting deeper, and running away harder - all while gaining a slight uptick in velocity.

And that slider really is the difference.

While he threw it just 10.7% of the time to open the season, he threw it 20.9% of the time to finish the year and it was vastly more effective over the seasons final 10 months. The pitch induced swings and misses (they key ingredient in generating strikeouts) on just 13.3% pf his offerings to open the season - right around the MLB average of 13.6% for sliders.

Over his final ten starts however he managed to get hitters to swing and miss at the offering 22.6% of the time - approaching twice the MLB average. The increased movement led to greater success and that also seems to have led to a vastly higher confidence in the pitch for Luke as he threw the pitch for a strike on over 72% of his offerings to finish the season, a huge increase over the 58.7% mark he opened the year with.

Suddenly having an effective secondary offering, hitters were no longer able to simply sit fastball on Hochevar and that in turn made his fastballs more effective. Batters swung and missed at his primary offering, his four-seamer, 57% more; and his sinker 75% more often over his final ten starts. Those increases occurred despite the fact that he made no tangible improvements in either pitch.

As we can see from that data, his success was more than just a small sample size fluke, intentionally or not, Hochevar developed a legitimately strong secondary offering that allows him to be a much more effective pitcher than he had been in the past. Whether or not he'll be able to maintain that success heading into 2012 however is a more difficult question to answer. One would assume that the team has taken notice of the improvement in his slider, and will hopefully continue to encourage him to throw it with increased frequency in 2012. But we won't know if he'll be able to maintain the improvement on the pitch until next year rolls around.

If he can't, his second half could slip vanish into the obscurity of the game. If he can, the Royals might finally realize some profit on the huge investment they made in Hochevar back in 2006. They might also have found another internal answer to the biggest question mark the team will have to answer as it heads into 2012 - starting pitching.

Doug Fister.....Ace?

2011-10-06T18:37:00.008-05:00

When Doug Fister first came over from the Tigers for a package of Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush, Chance Ruffin and Francisco Martinez, it seemed at first glance that the Tigers may have paid a lot for a ground ball pitcher who could not strike anybody out and relied heavily on his home ball park for success. That recipe seemed dicey at best for the success of Doug Fister going forward as a member of the Tigers.

During the first couple of games that Doug Fister pitched for the Tigers, I was both surprised and encouraged by how effective Fister’s arsenal seemed to be. Fister features a both four seam fastball and a two seam fastball which he throws nearly as often and at virtually the same average velocity of 90 mph. The two seamer features a few additional inches of down and in run to right handers as opposed to his normal four seam fastball. The identical speed but different trajectories make things very difficult on opposing hitters. Furthermore, Fister features a range of off speed pitches including a very nice slow curve ball with 12-6 break at around 75 mph, a harder slider at around 86 mph with only moderate break, and a change up at around 83 mph with similar but slightly more downward movement as compared with his two seamer.

This vast arsenal is actually slightly different from years past. First, Fister’s fastball velocity has improved by over 1 mph from last year on average and his two seamer velocity has improved by almost 2 mph from last year. Further his change-up, slider and curve have also seen noticeable upticks in velocity as well. Second, Fister throws his four seam fastball only 1/3 of the time as compared with almost 2/3 the year before. Fister uses his curve ball and slider upwards of 5% more often and he features his two seam fastball 25% of the time.

These changes have resulted in tangible improvements in Fister’s game from the 2010 season. While Fister’s ground ball rate remained a robust 47%, he did manage to lower his HR/FB from an already low 6.4% to 5.1%. Meanwhile his K% has risen to 16.7% (SO/TBF) up from 12.9% last year while his BB% has gone down to 4.2% (BB/TBF) from 4.4%. Fister proved himself a decent pitcher last year but his numbers this season have propelled his FIP into the top 5 in the AL.

Of particular note, as a member of the Tigers, Fister has racked up a 20.6% K% in 301 total batters faced. His BB% over the same period was 1.9%. While the 301 TBF is really not enough batters to make any conclusions about his BB%, it is enough to conclude that his new mixture of pitches and enhanced pitching arsenal may be resulting in significantly more strike outs! To be clear, 301 TBF is a point for strike outs where it becomes more likely that Fister had a change in his skills rather than a period of luck. The same cannot be said of BB% but the K% itself is very encouraging.

A 20% K% would put Fister in the same company as pitchers like Dan Haren, Max Scherzer and Colby Lewis. While I do not necessarily think he will keep up a pace THAT high, the stats suggest it is at least more likely than not. Further, it is worth noting that his Tigers K% of 20% and his long run BB% of 4.2% is extremely similar to Dan Haren, one of the best pitchers in the game (not to mention Fister has a superior GB rate and HR/FB rate).

While I am not prepared to say that Fister has elevated himself to the level of Dan Haren, I do think I can comfortably say that Fister is a much better pitcher than the casual fan, Tigers fans, and even the Tigers themselves thought they were getting when they made that trade.

Adam Dunn: Mechanics, Age or a Little of Both?

2011-09-11T17:27:00.004-05:00

I have somehow managed to avoid discussing Adam Dunn this season mostly because I usually like to talk about either positive things or at least somewhat intriguing negative things. Adam Dunn might come close to the latter but my “hunch” all season was that his issues this year have had mostly to do with a combination of bad luck and old age. I assumed early on that he would probably at least right his production enough to be considered a “productive” DH but at this point it is clear that ship has sailed.

Recently I encountered several intriguing pieces on Adam Dunn. The first, was Bradley Woodrum’s article entitled Adam Dunn Should Hit Better – But Not Much Better, which largely confirmed at least part of my first suspicion, that Dunn has been unlucky. Woodrum uses a predictive model entitled ShHAP which uses career BABIP and the players K, BB and HR rates to make predictions of expected player performance. Those of you who have read previous articles of mine know that I have done very similar analysis of other players. Seeing as how Woodrum’s work would likely completely mirror any work I could do on the subject, it suffices to say that I agree with Woodrum’s conclusion. Dunn has been unlucky to an extent but his drop in production has largely resulted from a dramatically increased K rate, lower BB rate, and lower HR rate on fly balls. Even with a luck adjustment Dunn would not be expected to be a serviceable DH.

Next, in the comments section of that same article I noticed a link to an interesting side by side swing mechanics analysis of Adam Dunn that can be found here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68MG3U_mjLU. I found this video interesting because there are very subtle but noticeable differences in Adam Dunn’s swing. I agree to an extent with the video, Dunn is starting his hands a bit earlier and he is not getting off his back side with much authority. However, calling these issues a problem of “mechanics” can be deceptive simply because when players age a bit and lose some physical skills, that same player will show swing mechanics issues. The reason for this is because if said player is losing something like bat speed in their swing, they will try to compensate naturally by adjusting their swing in subtle ways. Staying back on the ball, for example, is something that a player with good bat speed can do effectively, but a player who is slower through the zone would be chronically late against better fastballs and therefore does not have the luxury of keeping his hands back. That same player will likely have to “cheat” to get there in a timely fashion. That same player who cheats is now going to face additional problems such as an inability to adjust to offspeed pitches and an inability to adjust the bat trajectory to make good contact overall.

In Adam Dunn’s case, I think the video does a good job of pointing out that Dunn is staring earlier but I disagree that it is his hands that we should focus on. The first thing I noticed from the film was his hips. If you notice, in his prime Adam Dunn not only keeps his hands back, but very clearly rotates his hips in line with his shoulders and hands in a uniform manner. In the second shot, Dunn’s hips are already clearing out before he even plants his heel. By the time his heel is planted, his hips are already halfway (slight exaggeration) through their rotation.

In addition to hip rotation that is not only early but out of line with his shoulders and hands, Dunn also sports an exaggerated leg kick at the beginning of the swing. Furthermore, notice how Dunn’s right arm has more of a locked L-shape coming through the zone for prime Dunn versus a straighter almost “noodle” looking arm in the second video because his hips are out and his shoulders are following early. Finally, Dunn finished in the first video by pushing his weight off his back leg versus bad Dunn who simply collapses on the back leg as he falls inward due to his momentum which the video notes as the second major swing issue.

While all of these swing differences are certainly “mechanical” in nature, they are also indicative of a player who is “cheating” because he is having trouble generating power and bat speed more generally. All of these changes would be expected in that scenario where a player has simply lost physical ability because all of the actions would be made to get the bat through the zone quicker and generate more power through momentum in a manner that is compensatory to a loss in ability. The problem is that these adjustments simply do not work. Dunn almost seems to drag his arms through the zone with his hips and shoulders, something that would be an expected reaction if he simply could not get through the zone quickly with his normal swing. Further, he extended leg kick and his body collapsing and falling off would be an expected way to compensate for a lack of power using the body’s momentum in more extreme fashion.

It is tough to make a distinction between bad mechanics and compensatory mechanics due to bad physical skills. Two factors led me to believe his swing is compensatory in nature and that is first, it is a swing that largely demonstrates compensatory tendencies and two, Dunn is a bigger player who is older and used to be a model of consistency. Adam Dunn is 6’6” and almost 300 lbs and baseball is filled with bigger sluggers who did not age gracefully. There’s just more that needs to be maintained and more that can break down. Baseball fans have seen this kind of development before with players like Mo Vaugh and Richie Sexson among others. The early 30’s are often unkind to bigger bodies. However, as I mentioned, Adam Dunn has been one of the most consistent hitters in the majors over the course of his career with his strikeout rate, walk rate and HR rates never varying by much more than 2%. This makes it all the more difficult for me to believe that suddenly in his early 30’s, a prime time for bigger players like him to lose ability, that he simply developed mechanical “glitches” in his swing. Finally, the White Sox are an intelligent franchise. It is a bit hard for me to believe that these issues with his swing have not already been spotted and worked on by the coaching staff. If correcting these problems were really so easy for Adam Dunn, one would think he would have already done it.

Having said all that, simply because I mentioned him in the same breath as Richie Sexson and Mo Vaughn does not mean that I think Dunn cannot salvage his ability as a major league player. Old age and body breakdown are tough issues but they are not insurmountable. I do believe Dunn is at the point in his career where it will simply take more offseason work and effort on his part to be an effective player. That means better workout, diet and general lifestyle choices outside the ballpark than ever before. It is a tough adjustment that not only requires dedication but some good luck on the injury front as well. However, I would caution anybody on using this season and these tendencies of Adam Dunn to completely write him off at this point. Maybe this kind of season is just the motivation he needs to work harder than he ever has before and maybe that hard work will pay off in a big way.

Frankly, I am still inclined to give Dunn some benefit of the doubt before next season before I make any conclusions on his ability to come back from these problems. It takes dedication for a professional athlete to be as consistent as he has been in the past and his own pride will certainly be a motivating factor. Certainly he needs his body to agree with his desire as well, but I believe the desire is there.

Burning Bridges with Kevin Slowey

2011-08-23T23:38:00.002-05:00

At this point, there seems to be little secret that Kevin Slowey has fallen out of favor with the Minnesota Twins. It seems that everybody within the general vicinity of Kevin Slowey hates Kevin Slowey. I have to admit ignorance on this one; he seems like a nice enough guy when he threatens to murder people. However, I can see how Slowey time traveling, kidnapping and then murdering the Lindbergh baby would not win him popularity points with anyone.

In all seriousness though, there were at one point many trade rumors swirling around regarding the Twins dealing Kevin Slowey. For all we know, the Twins may still try and work out a deal through waivers or ship him off this offseason. The question has to be asked, is Kevin Slowey so intolerable that he should be dealt? It seems he has a way of getting on the bad side of team officials, management, teammates and the media alike. However, when he’s not creating turmoil or rehabbing from his latest DL stint he’s actually a pretty good pitcher.

Slowey has been a 2-3 WAR pitcher when moderately healthy. He is a rare pitcher in that he has both the ability to keep the walk totals lower than anybody not named Roy Halladay while still striking out almost 7 batters per nine innings. Now, he does this while giving up a ton of fly balls and allowing about 10% of those fly balls to carry over for home runs while featuring fairly mediocre stuff. On the whole, Slowey has proven himself to be a solid, if unspectacular starter amassing a 4.24 FIP for his career, a mark that is better than other notable starters Trevor Cahill, Rick Porcello and Nick Blackburn over the same period. As you can see that does not exactly put him in elite company but it does indicate that he’s more than good enough to be an unquestioned starter for a club and provide value in the middle to middle back end of a rotation.

This season, Slowey saw more time out of the bullpen initially and is only now getting a shot at the rotation amid reports that everyone and their brother is dissatisfied with him in Minnesota. The question for Minnesota really is whether Slowey’s apparent unlikeable disposition is enough to trade him for what will likely be lesser value than his worth, or can they just send him over to the far corner of the locker room and pitch him when needed? The problem here is that most of the opposition probably realizes that Minnesota would be willing to take less than full value to rid themselves of this headache, and they also realize that Slowey is a pretty effective pitcher. Maybe the best thing they can do is to pitch him as a starter, hope he stays healthy for a length of time, and then deal him for as close to fair value as they can get at some point next season. At any rate, there is more to this story than meets the eye and it will be interesting to see it play out over the rest of this season and the offseason.

A Look Back at the Ubaldo Jimenez Trade: Various Thoughts

2011-08-23T21:41:00.007-05:00

After Ubaldo Jimenez was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Cleveland Indians, various baseball writers offered up their opinions on the trade. Keith Law, for instance, seems to take the position the Indians were wrong to buy at the deadline when they acquired Jimenez because the club was really still in a rebuilding phase (at least that’s what I gathered from reading the first couple of paragraphs: I’m not an ESPN insider). Others at fangraphs.com questioned the Rockies motivations for selling on Ubaldo while both considering injuries and value.

These articles make good points. The Indians really do not have a decisive direction to go in long term. Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall are too new and too inexperienced to say for sure that some of the Indian's young pieces are turning them into a contender while they have team control and it is hard (though not impossible) to imagine Matt Laporta turning into much more than he currently is at 1b. The pitching staff has enjoyed an excellent season. Staff leader Justin Masterson has pitched well but enjoyed some luck with his low BABIP and HR/FB rates. The team is very much in the middle ground, not quite coming or going. Much of their future success could hinge on how Jimenez adjusts to the AL and if Grady Sizemore can recover from his injury troubles by next season after which he is a free agent.

If we take the point of view the Indians are not close enough to compete right now to have made that trade, the assumption is the current win value of Jimenez to this team both this year and in future years relative to his contract is outweighed by the future win benefit of the prospects they gave up relative to their contracts and that current wins are less valuable than future wins. All of this probably makes sense. If you assume the prospects sold and current young players develop, and that the Indians will be better in the future, wins 3-5 years down the line will be more valuable in terms of team value and contract value and the collective wins provided by those players dealt might be superior to that of Jimenez.

However, there is another factor. Baseball is a business; a business meant to generate revenue for its owners. The Indians in this situation, whether or not they are lucky to have a shot at the division, have a shot at the division. If Jimenez is good enough to increase their odds of winning the division, you have to consider the revenue generated from the playoff appearance to the club, as well as potential impact the playoffs might have on future ticket sales and merchandising. This consideration is really even more unknown than the win values of the prospects traded simply because we are not privy to the data that would allow us, the outsider, to determine if it was a wise decision. We do not know the revenue generation from the playoff appearance in any form, and thus, it is somewhat fruitless to analyze this trade for value.

Fangraphs also enters into the equation the health of Jimenez. If we consult the PitchFX velocity charts, we see that Jimenez’s velocity is still down despite his move from Colorado. If you give credence to thought put forth here, that the altitude difference makes it harder for pitchers to recover, than it is possible the fatigued arm could lag, causing a timing problem, which in turn causes injury. However, Jimenez has really given no indications that he is hurt aside from the velocity dip. Further, while his delivery is somewhat unorthodox, it is actually very well balanced and well timed. His arm does not suffer from an extended or elongated motion pattern that would result in timing issues, instead he is always in the high cocked power V position upon rotating of the hips and his shoulders follow quickly thereafter. There’s nothing in his delivery that screams injury potential. That said, if he had injured himself in Colorado due to the fatigue theory, then it really does not matter if his mechanics are good. In this case, Jimenez’s velocity loss is a bit of a conundrum. Is it possible that Ubaldo simply did not condition himself as well to start the year? That explanation is really the only one I can come up with that would make sense.

Finally, despite Jimenez’s initial struggles, in my opinion, the Indians will no doubt be pleased with their acquisition provided he is still healthy. He is a great power pitcher with a gigantic arsenal of pitches who can strike guys out and induce ground balls. He is really the complete package aside from the problems with walks he has had throughout his career that has really kept him from entering the class of the truly elite. This season, a quick scroll through his numbers shows a pitcher who really has not had the benefit of any good fortune. His BABIP is .324 compared to a career average of .286, his Left on Base percentage is only 64.3% despite a career rate of 71.3% and his home run per fly ball rate of 10.1% this year is higher than his career total of 7.8%. Velocity loss or not, his peripheral stats suggest he is still quite good. Stay patient Indians fans.

Indians Acquire Fukudome

2011-07-28T21:26:00.004-05:00

With clear needs in the outfield, with Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore on the DL, the Indians sent AAA RHP Carlton Smith and High-A Outfielder Abner Abreu to the Cubs for Kosuke Fukudome and 3.9M.

Fukudome, 34, currently holds a .273 average and a .374 OBP, 13th in the NL and has often leadoff for the Cubs. Fukadome typically falls off sharply as the season wears on compiling a career average in August of .275 and .198 in Sept/ Oct.

Going to the Cubs are 2 underwhelming prospects; Abreu, 21, is hitting .244 at High-A. Smith, 25, has a 4.50 ERA and a 2-3 record in 46 innings, strictly in relief.

Teahen/ Jackson to Toronto

2011-07-28T19:36:00.004-05:00

Looking to make a dent in payroll Kenny Williams finalized a deal that sent RHP Edwin Jackson and 3B/OF Mark Teahen to the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Jason Frasor and Zack Stewart. Toronto will pick up 100% of the remainder of Teahen's contract. the deal should save the Sox about 9 M over the next 2 years. Edwin Jackson was flipped for the Cardinals Colby Rasmus.

Frasor, 33, is an Oak Forest, IL native and has been in the Toronto ‘pen for the last 7 years this year he is 2-1 with a 2.98 ERA over 42 innings. Although he's a Cubs fans he says hes happy to be back in Chicago

Stewart, 24, was drafted in 2008 by the Reds and made his MLB debut this year. He is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA over 16 innings this year. He was rated the #5 prospect in the Jays organization by Baseball America. Stewart was promoted to AAA in 2009 but was dropped back to AA this year. Stewart will start for AAA Charlotte.

This move opened payroll for the Sox, with Toronto taking on 100% of teahen contract but also opened a roster spot for Alejandro De Aza who has been tearing up the Minors since arriving with the Sox in the beginning of last year his numbers are:

• 2009 - .300/.370, 21 2B,
• 2010 - .302/.366, 21 2B
• 2011 - .322/.378, 29 2B, 22 SB

what does De Aza bring to the Sox? A possible replacement for current leadoff hitter, Juan Pierre, who is in the final year of his contract and will, more than likely, not be offered one next year. De Aza also offers a viable Centerfield option, opposed to Alex Rios who has looked lazy this year.

Kansas City’s Cabrera Conundrum

2011-07-26T10:56:00.005-05:00

The rumors are abuzz as we approach the MLB trade deadline. Many sources have said that the Kansas City Royals are very interested in trading one (or both) of Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera.

The decision with Francoeur seems more straightforward for the Royals on its face. He is only under team control until the end of this current season. His peripheral stats are largely the same as they have always been, the one difference for him this season has been increased power output. Francoeur is going for extra bases at a rate similar to that of his second season in Atlanta when everybody thought he might be a breakout player for the Braves. Francoeur has demonstrated this type of power before, and has fallen off this level of power production before. Unfortunately, because Francoeur does not hit for a high average or take many walks, his value is pretty much entirely tied to his power output, which largely cannot be trusted at its current level. Especially when you consider that his production since the first month of the season has fallen off dramatically. As such the decision for KC is easy, with no team control and a player who is not all that valuable going forward, trade him for whatever you can get and move on.

With Melky Cabrera things are slightly more complicated. First, Melky is under team control for another year. Second, Melky has been a more valuable player than Francoeur this season (.350 wOBA to .337 wOBA, 3.3 WAR to 1.9 WAR). Third Melky can play CF, albeit not all that well, as well as a corner OF position. Fourth, Melky’s production has been consistent over the course of this season. Fifth, KC really does not have a ton of help in the way of corner outfield production. Scanning their minor league system, it is hard to believe they could get the level of production Melky would provide in the corners next season from anybody they called up. Will Myers, who has had some injury troubles, has also struggled in AA this season and at this point, one would have to believe he has at least one more full season in the minors to go if not more before he arrives in KC. As such, Melky may provide KC with the best production in a corner OF position by a good margin if he could keep up this seasons pace, and he would be maintained at a fairly affordable price.

The question then becomes, first, can Melky possibly maintain his current level of production in to next season and second, is having Melky’s production for another season more valuable to KC than acquiring pieces for the future?

The first is more complicated than it may seem. Melky’s increased production this season is bolstered by a OBP that is slightly above his career norms but supported by the highest batting average of his career and increased power production mostly in the form of home runs that seems to have arisen strictly from an increase in HR/FB. Melky actually has struck out slightly more and walked less than he has during the course of his career. His LD, GB and FB rates are all basically the same as they always have been. His career BABIP for all three rates are .703, .245 and .129 respectively while this season he is sitting at .714, .286, and .163 respectively. The BABIP increases could feasibly happen after a player develops more power generally if his LD, FB and GB are hit harder on the whole, but these increases seem suspect, especially the GB rate. His projected BA at this career rates would be:

(128 – (.714 - .703)(63) – (.286 - .245)(175) – (.163 - .129)(121))/ 427 ~= .272

If we assume, probably rightfully, that Melky’s .300 BA is highly inflated and that .272 represents his probable mean expected BA, his OBP falls to approximately .307, very much unspectacular.

However, there is some reason to think Melky may be accumulating a more powerful HR stroke. He is only 26 at the moment, prime age for a power increase, and unlike Francoeur he did not show this kind of power years ago, only recently, in 2009 he had almost an identical HR/FB rate in his age 24 season. Last season he suffered his lowest HR/FB output however this season is almost identical to his 2009 rate. Before that his career HR/FB rate was roughly half of his 2009/2011 rates. His HR/FB rate over the last three seasons is roughly 6.7% and his production this year has been fairly consistent. While 2010 cannot be discounted entirely, there is reason to think that Melky can hit at a roughly 8-10% HR/FB clip going forward. His doubles power has remained mostly consistent. Assuming a 9% HR/FB rate, Melky’s slugging would basically remain the same minus the extra hits we deducted previously. As such, his expected triple slash would be approximately .272/.307/.429. As such, Melky almost definitely is not as valuable as his stats indicate this season. Looking at wOBA comparables for those lines it is apparent his wOBA would drop considerably, probably into the high .320’s though it is difficult to say exactly because it is an adjusted stat. That would put Melky slightly above average in CF and just about average in LF. Keeping in mind his defense is below average in CF and probably average to above average in LF, and what you have in Melky is a decidedly average player.

The next question is whether it is worth it for KC to keep Melky for next season, or get value in return for him?

The first issue is that Melky is outperforming his expected production by a somewhat considerable margin. So first and foremost, if any other team buys Melky as a potential producer at his current levels and is willing to compensate KC accordingly, KC should sell.

Next, Melky is under team control. While he will make more than his current salary next season, he almost definitely will not cost as much as would a free agent per win value. The free agent cost of a win is probably close to 5 million, and Melky will not cost anything near that for the Royals. However, do the Royals really care?

First, there are ample replacements available in the free agent market as possible stop gaps that would provide as much production if not more and probably not many years or dollars (albeit not as few dollars or years as Melky), such as Damon, Dejesus, Jones, Ludwick, Ross, Willingham ect. They have varying levels of value but all are relatively average to below average and probably will not command many dollars or years. KC could also use an internal option, probably somebody not named Myers, and trot out below average production at highly cost controlled rates. If we are looking at Melky’s direct replacement in CF in Lorenzo Cain, KC may get equivalent to better production in CF while losing in RF assuming both Francoeur and Melky are traded and no external replacement is found in the offseason.

Second, KC this season probably figures to finish with 66-72 wins, not nearly enough to compete for the division. While the clubs offense is somewhat decent, the starting pitching is still largely abysmal, tied for the worst era in the AL with Baltimore, and their peripheral stats largely support that result. If the question is really about competitiveness for next season, there is some hope only because Hosmer and Moustakas may make strides and some more of the young pitching might arrive and produce enough to allow KC to compete in a relatively weaker division. However, that’s asking for a lot, realistically, KC probably needs to get about 15-20 wins better to possibly win the division, a substantial gulf that is probably unattainable for next season without massive free agent signings.

As a result, because KC is probably not quite ready to compete for the division and because Melky Cabrera is probably overvalued by at least one front office somewhere at the moment, the right move is probably to move Melky along with Francoeur and worry about his replacement at a later date. As stated, for RF (assuming Cain takes over in center and Francoeur is gone), there will be ample choices for KC to replace Melky with if they think they are closer to the 15-20 win difference than not.

Indians Activate Carmona, Call Up Huff. Both Dominate Twins.

2011-07-19T13:13:00.000-05:00

As the Twins sent down Scott Baker and called up Scott Diamond for an emergency start, the Indians were forced to make a similar move by calling up David Huff to make an additional start during yesterdays day-night doubleheader. They also activated Fausto Carmona who had been on the DL since July 3rd with a right quad strain.

The soft tossing 27 year old lefty Huff made a fine start, going seven innings without allowing a run in sweltering heat. The start stands as one of the finest of Huff's career as he's managed to throw seven shutout innings just two other times in his career, both in 2009.

Once thought to be a long term option at the back of the rotation, Huff has never managed to impress as he was routinely roughed up in both 2009 and 2010. The team has now reached a point where it seems set to move forward without him and his future in the Major Leagues, whatever that may amount to, quite likely lies with another organization. With a career strikeout rate of just 4.48 and a walk rate of 3.22 coupled with a rather high tendency toward fly balls, he doesn't do much of anything well.

But for at least one more night, Huff managed to keep his Major League aspirations alive.

On the other hand, the return of Fausto Carmona is more meaningful. Carmona of course was the Indians best pitcher last season, but has been a mess in 2011. He routinely struggles with command, failing to hold the zone or get ahead of hitters. In turn that makes him predictable, and even though he has a live arm and good stuff, hitters have teed of on him this season, plastering him for a 5.63 ERA.

As I discussed last week, the Indians starting pitchers have stumbled mightily since the seasons first month and getting Carmona back to form - or at least close to back to form - should go a long ways in helping to right that ship. To some extent, Carmona has been unlucky, as his FIP of 4.82 is the better part of a full run lower than his ERA, not that a 4.82 FIP would be decidedly better of course.

To make room for Huff and Carmona the team has placed center fielder Grady Sizemore back on the disabled list, this time with a contusion on his right knee (more on that later) and optioned Jeanmar Gomez back to AAA.

Twins Send Baker to the DL, Tolbert to Rochester, Call Up Two

2011-07-17T22:57:00.000-05:00

When Scott Baker informed the Twins in his last outing that he had been experiencing some elbow discomfort they immediately removed him and skipped his following start the Sunday prior to the All-Star break. He had an MRI which showed no structural damage so the hope was that he could pick up his next start following the break.

Last night however Baker told the team that he still didn't feel well enough to start. Facing a double header against the Indians starting tomorrow - the first game of which Baker was expected to start - the team has choosen to send him to the disabled list and called up 25 year old lefty Scott Diamond, a Rule V selection who will start the second game of the twin bill.

Diamond has been thoroughly mediocre in AAA this year with a 6.65/2.93 K/BB ratio since coming over from the Braves organization in a trade for Billy Bullock that I really didn't like. He features a fastball in the 88-90mph range with average movement and command, with his best pitch being a 12-6 curve that has at times showed some promise. He'll also show righties a slider and lefties a changeup.

His stuff is fringy at best and the Twins should do everything in their power to avoid having to rely on him any more than is necessary. Actually, the fact that they've given Diamond the nod over top prospect Kyle Gibson is rather shocking given the latters far superior stuff and the importance of these games with the Indians.

The second half of the Twins moves was the demotion of utility man Matt Tolbert who has long been a favorite of Manager Ron Gardenhire to make room for left handed reliever Chuck James - also a former Brave.

Tolbert's presence had become a bit redundant given the presence of infielders Luke Hughes and Trevor Plouffe. Still, the fact that Tolbert has long been a player Gardenhire has lauded praise upon makes his demotion at least a little surprising. In James the Twins will be adding another lefty to their bullpen who can help eat up innings over the next few days as a taxed bullpen.

While James has received a lot of attention from fans and bloggers for his performance in AAA, I'm still skeptical of his ability to contribute a significant number of positive innings at the MLB level, but he should be a better option the Phil Dumatrait.

Tigers Designate Ryan Perry, Recall Alburquerque

2011-07-17T14:09:00.000-05:00

When the Tigers placed bullpen phenom Al Alburquerque on the disabled list with inflammation in his pitching elbow it was a frightening moment indeed as diagnosis' like elbow inflammation, or elbow/forearm tenderness have a nasty way of turning into, 'will undergo Tommy John surgery.'

The diagnosis is still worrisome for me, and should be for fans of the Tigers as well but it's obviously good to see that the team did the right thing, placing him on the disabled list immediately instead of asking the player to try and work through it. Not that a fifteen day respite necessarily cures anything if something is seriously wrong, but it's the proper amount of caution in this circumstance.

In Alburquerque's absence the team gave former setup man and once highly touted prospect Ryan Perry another chance after he missed much of spring training with an eye infection, then was demoted after a series of ugly outings in late May left him with an ERA of 12.19 over his first 10.1 innings of work. He did well with the chance, posting a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings, and striking out six while walking four.

Where Perry has been successful and a bit lucky since coming back however, Alburquerque has been nothing short of dominant since joining the team two weeks into the season. After making just three appearances for the AAA Mudhens, the team called him up and he's posted an almost unfathomable 14.42 strikeout rate, which, when paired with his 54% groundball rate has more than helped him cover up for a 7.06 walk rate.

He's accomplished such impressive peripherals with a fastball that averages 95.5mph and a very hard biting slider at 85.7mph that has been one of baseball's most effective pitches. Indeed watching Alburquerquer it's a wonder (and a borderline crime) that two other organizations saw fit to allow him to leave.

Thankfully for the Tigers however, they did. His presence, along with veterans Benoit and Valverde help make the Tigers bullpen one of the league most stout.

Carlos Guillen Set to Make His Return

2011-07-16T14:58:00.001-05:00

In general this years Tigers team hasn't struggled for offense, they're 5th in the AL in runs scored (8th in MLB) and have averaged 4.46 runs per game. Strong marks. They are however extremely top-heavy with five regulars posting OPS marks of .820 or better - one of just three teams that can make the claim.

The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.

For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.

At second base the Tigers combined 0.1 WAR is 4th worst in baseball. At third they've gotten -0.1 WAR, sixth worst. In center Austin Jackson has given them about 0.9 WAR, still leaving them sixth worst in the game.

With former MVP Magglio Ordonez beginning to heat up, having hit .302 with a .809 OPS over his last 19 games, the Tigers are hoping that he can provide all the offense with team will need in right, provided he can stay healthy. But that still leaves the three aforementioned positions at which the Tigers would like to improve.

At third, the Tigers are counting on perennial stalwart Brandon Inge to eventually pull himself together, and Jackson is, and will remain the long-term (and short-term) answer in center.

That leaves second base where the Tigers are currently running out the incredibly disappointing Ryan Raburn. After back-to-back seasons in which Raburn posted OPS marks of .891 and .814, I felt that he would be due for a big year if the Tigers could only give him consistent at-bats. Instead he's regressed significantly, turning in the worst performance of his career while seeing his strikeout rate jump through the roof.

On top of it all, Detroit compounded the problem when they gave up on Scott Sizemore far too soon, trading him away for the predictably disappointing David Purcey.

Following the trade, Sizemore has seen some small sample size success, posting a .785 OPS over 110 plate appearances for Oakland while Purcey has posted a 4.76 ERA while allowing opposing batters to hit .292/.410/.446.

The combination of under performance from Raburn and self-inflicted damage from the front office has left the team in a bit of a bind. Enter Carlos Guillen.

Over the past three years Guillen has spent a significant amount of time on the disabled list, largely due to a pair of balky knees that hasn't allowed him to play more than 113 games since 2007, and that number has declined every year since then as he made just 81 appearances in 2009, and 68 last season.

When he has been healthy though, he's remained a productive bat, posting OPS marks of .757 and .746 the last two seasons. That's certainly not a sparkling number, but when compared to the combined .595 mark the Tigers have gotten out of their second basemen this year - it's downright golden.

If he can come back and hit anywhere near as well as he has the past two years and play at least a passable second base, the Tigers could be looking at a player who could provide a full win or more above their current crop of options.

Guillen is set to return on Sunday, and to make room for him the Tigers have optioned Danny Worth back to AAA. In what is shaping up to be a tight four team race for the Central pennant, his presence could make all the difference.

White Sox Sign Doug Davis

2011-07-16T13:03:00.000-05:00

In an effort to shore up their starting pitching depth following the loss of Lucas Harrell to the waiver wire the White Sox have signed free agent Doug Davis to a Minor League contract. The 36 year old Davis is a 12 year veteran of the Major Leagues who started his career with the Rangers. He spent parts of five seasons with them, but is probably best known as a Brewer. Davis had two different stints with the team, first from 2003 through 2006, and he made 8 starts for the team last year.

In 2004 and 2005 Davis turned in a pair of very good seasons, posting ERAs of 3.39 and 3.84 respectively while throwing over 200 innings in each campaign. He's been decidedly less effective since those seasons however and after signing with the Cubs this offseason got torched for a 6.50 ERA over nine starts before being demoted.

Davis' peripherals however remain solid as he still sports a K rate over 7.00 with a solid 42.8% GB rate. He has walked far too many but it's certainly possible that, in a pinch, he could deliver some quality innings. And that's precisely what the White Sox are looking for - someone who could be relied upon in a pinch should injuries necessitate the team turning to it's 7th starter.

Young, Plouffe Return for Twins

2011-07-15T14:43:00.000-05:00

When the Twins decided to demote Trevor Plouffe earlier this season I, along with quite a few others in the blogosphere thought the move was a poor one. Plouffe was hardly an elite prospect entering the 2011 season, but his status as a former first round pick gave some credence to his scorching hot start for the Twins AAA affiliate.

Sadly the Twins decided to send Plouffe back to AAA despite him showing some glipses of his phenomenal power by hitting three home runs and five total extra base hits in his first 72 Major League plate appearances. The decision was made after Manager Ron Gardenhire repeatedly blasted the young infielder to the media following series of errors.

The irony of the situation of course is that Gardenhire did nothing but heap praise on import Tsuyoshi Nishioka while making excuse after excuse for his own gaffes. It's a perplexing and disturbing double standard that Gardenhire has long employed on middle infielders who haven't fit his desired mold.

To Plouffe's credit however he took his demotion well, and while the Twins asked him to learn to play other positions, he just kept hitting homerun after homerun. In his first game back last night, playing as the DH, Plouffe launched his 19th home run of the year, and his 4th at the MLB level in his third trip to plate. That towering shot off the foul pole that put the Twins up 4-3, and they would go on to lead for the rest of the game.

Where he'll ultimately settle into the lineup - or even IF he'll ultimately settle anywhere - remains to be seen. What can't be disputed is that the Twins need his bat. Not only for the impressive power he provides, but to add balance to a lefty heavy order.

Of course, Plouffe's call up was just half the story. The Twins also added Delmon Young to the lineup. Young had been out since June 25th following an embarrassing attempt on a fly ball that ultimately led to an inside the park home run and a trip to the DL with a sprained ankle that he suffered when colliding awkwardly with the base of the wall.

While Young is off to another of his typically slow starts, his bats showed signs of life during his rehab stint as he hit two home runs and three doubles in just 31 AAA at-bats. Then in his first game back he went 3-4 with a pair of doubles and a single, all on crisply hit line drives.

The Twins need Young, like everyone else on the team to hit well over the second half if they're to continue to claw their way back into a race for a playoff spot and while his defense is consistently atrocious and I'll continue to lobby for his banishment from the outfield, his bat can carry a team when he's hot.

In order to make room for Young and Plouffe, the Twins have optioned both of their Rene's: Tosoni and Rivera to the AAA. Neither player was particularly impressive, but each had their moments as they helped play a role in turning around a Twins team that was decimated by injuries earlier in the year. They should certainly feel good about their contributions, even if their numbers were decidedly uninspired.

Denard Span Set To Begin Rehab Assignment

2011-07-13T21:24:00.001-05:00

Despite missing the past month and a half with a concussion Denard Span has still been the Twins team leader in WAR. The fact that he was able to accumulate 2.7 WAR in just over two months of play was remarkable and meant that when he went down, the Twins were left with a massive void in center field to try and fill.

Thankfully for the Twins rookie Ben Revere stepped up and capably filled his shoes, posting a .275 batting average (empty though it may have been) while playing electrifying defense in center field, and causing havoc on the bases - showing why he's been such a highly regarded prospect for so long now.

Now Span is ready to begin a rehab assignment, and given that he's missed so much time it's likely the stint will be somewhat lengthy. Twins fans could expect him to play at least a week of games before actually returning to the team. Even then it's likely that he'll have some rust to shake off.

Regardless, getting a player of Span's caliber back at the top of the lineup where his .750 OPS and .361 OBP can help load the bases for Joe Mauer and Co..

What'll be interesting to see is precisely how Manager Ron Gardenhire decides to go about balancing both his bevy of outfielders, as well as his lineups. For now it would seem that the plan would be for Delmon Young, who is set to return tomorrow, to stay in left, Revere to remain in center, and for Span to slide over to right while Michael Cuddyer mans first base.

Who will bat second is still up in the air however. Alexi Casilla has a slightly better OBP than Revere, but Gardy seems to really like Revere's presence at the top of the order, and his elite contact skills would fit Gardy's small-ball style perfectly.

Jeanmar Gomez Poised to Take Talbot's Rotation Spot

2011-07-13T14:50:00.000-05:00

3.71 - 4.42 - 4.42 - 5.79

Those numbers are the combined ERA of the Indians starters for April, May, June, and July respectively, and they show a disturbing downward trend. In 2010 the Indians 4.53 ERA from it's starters was the 2nd worst in the AL, and this years team features essentially the exact same group of arms, with similar results.

After the team roared off to a 18-8 start in April on the back of great starting pitching, both the teams pitching and record come have back to Earth. Indeed, since that 18-8 start to the year, the Indians have actually been a sub-.500 team, going 29-34 over the past two and a half months.

While the offense, which scored a MLB best 141 (5.42R/Gm) runs during the 18-8 runs has also tapered off significantly to just 3.89 runs per game since then, at least some of that could be explained by the time they missed Travis Hafner, and Shin-Soo Choo.

The pitching however, remains essentially unchanged. This is the same corps of players that was legitimately bad in 2010, and aside from a one month blip to start the year, has looked pretty bad again.

In response to their continued struggles the team has made the rather obvious decision to replace it's weakest link in Mitch Talbot (6.33 ERA - 5.37 FIP) with 23 year old righty Jeanmar Gomez.

Gomez has spent much of the season in AAA so far, but did come up to make three starts earlier in the year. A solid arm, Gomez works in the low 90s and pairs his fastball with a slider and changeup, with the slider being by far the better of the two offerings. In this his second stint at AAA Gomez has made strides with both his strikeout and walk rates and as actually shown success going against the platoon split, with a 3.68 FIP against left handers over the past two seasons, though his stuff suggests that he'll ultimate struggle against lefties unless he improves his changeup.

Talbot on the other hand is probably just about out of chances. At 28 years old this is the third time he's pitched on an MLB squad and he's never really done anything to suggest he can stick at this level as anything more than a mop-up arm. He's the not-so-proud owner of a career ERA of 5.19 , and his 4.94 FIP, and 5.07/4.12 strikeout to walk ratio suggest that's well deserved.

It's doubtful that exchanging Talbot for Gomez will provide a spark to the rotation that leads to the Indians climbing up from the bottom of the league ERA rankings, but at this point it's a no-brainer. Talbot has done nothing and Gomez has seen some success at AAA while showing some progress in his stuff.

In what is shaping up to be a tight race, his presence might only give the Indians one or two more quality starts - but that could make all the difference.

The All AL Central All-Star Team

2011-07-12T14:55:00.000-05:00

With Major League Baseball's All-Star Game scheduled for tonight, it makes sense to me that we should take a look at who the 25 best players from the AL Central are, and put together a roster to take on the rest of the baseball world. Some spots are obvious, others, not so much.

Disagree with my decisions? Let me know in the comments section.

C) Alex Avila (Tigers): .286/.370/.506, 10HR, 2.7 WAR - Perennial All-Star Joe Mauer has been hurt, and ineffective when not hurt. Avila has been a revelation.
1B) Miguel Cabrera (Tigers): .311/.430/.549, 18HR, 3.1 WAR - A defensive liability, but an absolute monster at the plate, as his .979 OPS (ho hum) attests.
2B) Gordon Beckham: (White Sox): .245/.305/.360, 7HR, 1.1 WAR - Beckham still hasn't blossomed into the player the Sox hoped, but he's the best choice in a very weak field of candidates.
3B) Jack Hannahan (Indians): .222/.312/.348, 5HR, 1.2 WAR - A solid FA signing by the Indians, Hannahan kept the spot warm for top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall.
SS) Jhonny Peralta (Tigers): .312/.362/.529, 14HR, 3.3 WAR - A dead tie between him and Asdrubal Cabrera in WAR, Peralta has the better wOBA and UZR.
LF) Alex Gordon (Royals): .299/.367/.483, 11HR, 3.4 WAR - The WAR leader amongst AL Central position players. Seriously. Finally becoming the player the Royals always hoped he would.
CF) Melky Cabrera (Royals): .293/.332/.455, 11HR, 3.0 WAR - Perhaps the best dollar/performance FA signing in baseball this year, Cabrera signed for just 1.25m.
RF) Carlos Quentin (White Sox): .251/.350/.502, 17HR, 2.4 WAR - Experiencing a resurgent season, tied with Brennan Boesch in WAR. Get's nod for playing more in RF than Boesch.
DH) Travis Hafner (Indians): .325/.406/.528, 8HR, 1.5 WAR - PRONK SMASH! Indeed.

BN) Carlos Santana (Indians): .230/.363/.418, 13HR, 2.1 WAR - Hampered by a very slow start, bat has started to click the past couple months.
BN) Brennan Boesch (Tigers): .306/.360/.490, 12HR, 2.4 WAR - Proving that 2010 season wasn't a fluke.
BN) Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians): .293/.347/.489, 14HR, 3.3 WAR - Missed being the starting SS by the thinnest of margins.
BN) Alexi Ramirez (White Sox): .274/.331/.414, 9HR, 3.2 WAR - The AL Central boasts the three best shortstops in the AL (by WAR).

SP) Justin Verlander (Tigers): 151 IP, 2.15 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 4.5 WAR - You don't really need an explanation, do you?
SP) Justin Masterson (Indians): 121.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 2.9 WAR - Helping to corner the market in dominating starters with 'Justin' as their first name.
SP) Scott Baker (Twins): 110.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 2.2 WAR - The only Twins player actually deserving of the name All-Star (and only in an all ALC context).
SP) Philip Humber (White Sox): 105.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 2.2 WAR - While Melky is probably the best FA signing of the year, Humber is hands down the finest waiver acquisition.
SP) Mark Buehrle (White Sox): 121.0, 3.42 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 2.0 WAR -

RP) Rafeal Perez (Indians): 37.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.8 WAR - Experiencing a real career revival.
RP) Vinnie Pestano (Indians): 33.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 0.8 WAR - Key reason why the Indians bullpen has been one of the best in baseball.
RP) Greg Holland (Royals): 25.0 IP, 1.08, 2.32 FIP, 0.8 WAR - A late callup building off his promising 2010 showing, Holland has been nothing less than lights-out.
RP) Aaron Crow (Royals): 43.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 0.3 WAR - The Royals have leaned on this starter-turned reliever to hold any close lead late in games.
RP) Al Albuquerque (Tigers): 29.0 IP, 2.79 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 0.9 WAR - Has used his hot fastball, frightening lack of control, and devastating slider to shut down opponents.
RP) Sergio Santos (White Sox): 42.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.1 WAR - Continued his meteoric rise from obscure MiLB infielder, to MLB closer.
RP) Glen Perkins (Twins): 33.2IP, 1.87ERA, 1.98 FIP, 1.2 WAR - Fulfilling the potential he had prior to arm surgery years ago.

Would Calling Up Jacob Turner Be The Right Decision?

2011-07-11T14:37:00.002-05:00

In truth, this is really a three-piece discussion with the first question being: how did we get to this point?; the second question being: is Jacob Turner the best pitcher available to fill the role of 5th starter on the Tigers?; and the third question being: is he ready to get Major League hitters out?

Let's start with the first question: How did we get to this point?

As I discussed this off season when the Tigers decided to let Armando Galarraga walk, the teams decision to DFA him was a questionable one at best. For one thing, it was completely unnecessary. While the signing of Brad Penny left Galarraga without a role in the starting rotation, there was no reason he couldn't have stayed on as a long reliever.

Instead they opened the season with Enrique Gonzalez and Brayan Villarreal as their long men. Gonzalez, who had amassed a 5.81 career ERA over five seasons split between four teams was essentially every bit as good (or bad) as one could've expected, allowing seven earned runs in 5.1 innings, before being demoted on April 19th. Villareal who has solid stuff but had never thrown an inning above AA entering the 2011 season also, predictably, got chewed up and spat out, allowing 11 earned runs in 15.1 innings of work before being demoted on May 20th.

Shortly after Villarreal was demoted, the Tigers rotation hit the skids, with essentially everyone not named Justin Verlander cratering. That set in motion a laughably foreseeable turn of events in which the Tigers traded one under-tooled left handed problem for another.

And so here we are. The Tigers hold a tenuous half-game lead in the AL Central over a surprising Indians team, but they're learning that they only have four competent starters. And given that all three of the other starters have ERAs of at least 4.50 (MLB average is just 3.95) - it's a stretch even to say the team even has four competent arms.

It's more like Verlander, and three other guys pitching like 5th starters.

To be clear, Galarraga hasn't been anything special himself, accumulating a 5.91 ERA in 42.2 innings of work for the Diamondbacks before being demoted on May 15th - but he could've at least offered the team another option.

Now we're left to wonder whether a twenty year old, who has been more good than great in AA, is really the best option for a Major League team in a pennant race.

Sadly the answer to that question is a solid: maybe.

While Charlie Furbush had an abbreviated two-start audition that saw him perform even worse than the man (Phil Coke) he was replacing, it's likely that the team was as thoroughly underwhelmed by his stuff as I was before the experiment began. Indeed, despite a terrible end to his career as a starter, given his 4.05 ERA overall, Coke might be the best option to round out the rotation right now.

The team however seems to have given up on him even though he showed three solid offerings while posting solid if unspectacular peripherals, preferring to isolate him against lefties as much as possible.

That leaves the Tigers in the same bind they were in before: needing a 5th starter.

With all other options having been exhausted, it seems that the team might now consider bringing their top prospect, the right handed Turner, into the fold.

I've had the opportunity to watch Turner a lot. I caught no fewer than six of his starts last year, and another 5 this season, and I've come away as impressed as anyone else. For a twenty year old, Turner shows a feel for pitching that seems beyond his years. He pitches aggressively with his fastball, a two-seamer that he locates quite well, even if it doesn't generate ideal movement at 92-94mph.

Turner complements the fastball with a curveball that flashes plus. Sometimes the pitch generates great, late bite at 76-78mph and can produce some really ugly swings from the Minor Leaguers he's facing. The problem is that he's very inconsistent with the pitch and all too often he loses his arm-slot and the ball will either hump or just spin. It'll almost certainly be a consistently plus offering with time (I gave it a potential 70 grade in my pre-season scouting report of Turner) but it isn't yet.

He'll also shown a solid changeup, and I concur with other prospect watchers who say that pitch has made the most progress this season. While I graded the pitch as a 50 current offering before the season, I'd call it a 60 right now - and I'd bump my potential grade on the pitch from 60 to 65-70. It's getting better depth than it was before and has become a much more effective weapon against lefties.

The problem is that right now, it's hard for me to see how he has any more success at this level than, say, Coke. His stuff is good, and could one day be really good. But while his fastball has some zip and he locates the pitch well, his secondary offerings aren't there yet. Yes the curveball looks unhittable at times, but he has poor command of it, and it's inconsistent. The changeup is becoming more consistent, and I think he's actually probably more effective against lefties than righties right now as a result.

But is that enough to translate as a quality MLB arm? Color me skeptical.

Like any pitcher making his first trip through the league however, Turner would have the advantage of not having been seen before and there is a never ending list of guys who've looked like certain All-Star during those first couple trips through the league. For evidence of that, Tigers fans need look no further than their own Rick Porcello, who dominated the AL for one season on smoke and mirrors before getting figured out.

This is where my "maybe," assessment comes from.

Could Turner have some success as a starter over half a season? Sure, plenty of guys have.

But is his stuff really ready to succeed at this level long-term? Probably not.

And so the Tigers brass has to ask themselves some tough questions: would the chance that Turner could provide a spark in the rotation outweigh the potential damage that could be done to his development? Would they be better served trying to acquire another mediocre starter via trade?

These are the questions that make being an MLB General Manager tough.

The Nightly Note: America's Finest Moment

2011-07-11T02:03:00.002-05:00

If you're an American who has, through decades of under promoted and unexciting women's sports, become complacent about women's sports in general, you could be forgiven for missing yesterday's World Cup match between the United States and their arch-rival Brazil. After all when the biggest thing going in women's professional athletics is the WNBA, well, it's just hard to get too worked up. Add in the fact that futbol (or as we say it in this country, soccer) just isn't very popular in the States, and it's a perfect storm of American disinterest.

But if you're into watching top flight competition, on the grandest of a sports stages, then you should've been watching the women's World Cup. The US women's squad not only has a history of success (unlike the men) they're a perennial favorite, and for the casual fan the difference between the men's and women's games is hardly noticeable.

For those of you who aren't familiar, Brazil is probably the world's most talented squad in terms of measurables. Their players are fast, they're strong on the ball, and exceptionally creative, and they're led by the world's best player (by a lot) - Marta.

They're also the world's most perpetually underachieving team.

Having never won a major tournament, the Brazilian's have been both incredibly unlucky, and a frequent victim of US keeper Hope Solo as this video of her making an incredible save against Marta to preserve the US lead in the 2008 Olympic Gold Medal Game can attest. The Brazilian Squad, known as the Samba Queens, has finished as the runner up in the Olympics twice and the World Cup once.

Always bridesmaids, as they say.

Worse still, it seems that every year it's been the US squad that's outed them. With the exception of a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Brazilian's in the World Cup in 2007, the United States has beaten them in their past seven matches, including the last four in a row leading up to this.

So when the two teams met again on the pitch in a quarterfinals matchup, the match needed no buildup.

To be certain, this wasn't the 1980 Men's Hockey Team - that team was made up of college kids going up against an undefeatable powerhouse with nothing less than the Soviet-US rivalry on the line. But it was a US team that had just gotten handled - especially on their defensive line - by Sweden in a 2-1 loss, and their opponent was still the extraordinarily talented Brazil, a squad with a huge motivation to beat them.

At the outset of the match the US women, clad in all black uniforms that must've had the players sweltering under the sun in weather that reached 90 degrees outside the stadium - and must've been considerably hotter on the pitch - received an enormous break when a crossing pass from US midfielder Shannon Boxx deflected off Brazilian defender Daiane and into her own net for an early 1-0 US lead.

The match would go on without anything particularly notable happening through half time. Both teams had a couple of opportunities, and each squad sent a ball off the cross bar, one on a long volley from a Brazilian midfielder and one off a header from a corner kick by US midfielder Carli Lloyd. Beyond that, the Two teams played an evenly matched game with neither team seeming to be able to create in scoring range.

Of course, it was in the 66th minute that the match would take a controversial turn, and the truly historic nature of the match would begin to take shape.

At that point Marta showed her real brilliance on a deep run into American territory. After seemingly being trapped by a pair of American defenders, she flipped the ball over their heads, cut behind and she and American defender Rachel Buehler raced for the loose ball. Diving feet first in the air, both players seemed to get to it at the same moment and it trickled harmlessly into the waiting hands of Solo.

Referee Jacqui Melksham however saw it differently.

Instead of allowing play to continue she not only awarded a penalty kick to the Brazilian's, but gave a red card to Buehler which not only meant she was ejected from the game, but that the US would have to play the remainder of the match a player down.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the game of futbol, it's hard to describe how incredibly devastating that turn of events was. Not only is a penalty kick, which is taken from a mere twelve yards away, essentially impossible to stop - the US would now not only have to somehow survive to full time a player down to the world most talented team, a staggering 23 minutes away - they'd then have to play through two more 15 minute extra-time periods before reaching penalty kicks.

A truly staggering task in which the US women would have to run an incredible 53 minutes a player down.

Then something incredible happened - Solo actually stopped the penalty kick of exceptionally talented Brazilian striker Christiane on an amazing diving save.

However in her second controversial call in minutes, Melksham called the teams back, claiming that Solo had left her line prior to the shot (goalkeepers are required to keep their feet on the goal line until the penalty shot is taken). At that point the Brazilian's sent Marta to the line and she buried the second opportunity.

The United States squad never wavered though. Instead of hanging their heads in defeat or capitulating in the face of overwhelmingly long odds, the team rose to the challenge.

Flexing their incredible conditioning the US squad not only survived a player down, they started to wrest away control of the game, consistently outrunning the Samba Queen's despite having to cover significantly more ground than the Brazilian's given that they were playing a woman short.

When the US made it to full time tied, it seemed as though it might, just might be possible.

But in just the third minute of the first 15 minute extra time period Marta once again proved why she's the best player in the world. Taking a cross from the left side, Marta, positioned at the near post flipped the ball over the head of her marker and past Solo, sneaking the ball in at the far post.

It was a play that only she could make, and it was truly brilliant.

Now down 2-1, and down a player to a team that could simply pack the defense in with the first extra-time period coming to an end, the odds for the US squad were not only long, they may as well have been non-existent.

Seemingly understanding that they couldn't beat the Brazilian's straight up with their passing in the scoring area, the United States squad had been playing most of the game for corner kicks. Hoping that they could play a ball in and find a fortuitous header. For the most part they executed the strategy well, but one after another, the attempts were cleared by the Samba Queens.

Then as the second extra-time period expired, the referee's awarded eight minutes of stoppage time (largely due to stalling by the Brazilian's which drew heavy boos from the crowd). All that stood between the Brazilian's and the vanquishing of their long-time foe was eight minutes.

One by one, those minutes ticked by.

116, 117, 118, 119, 120...

Following a long clearance of an extremely dangerous opportunity by the Brazilian's that could've very well put them up 3-1, and a strike that went just high by Lloyd, the American's in the 122 minute got the ball to midfielder Megan Rapinoe - a player who had drawn my ire throughout the match for turning the ball over nearly every time she touched it - who dribbled the ball up the left sideline, and with a left footed strike, let a long volley fly...

Waiting on the other end was the most prolific goal scorer in United States history, Abby Wambach.

The 31 year old Wambach who had, for many years been one of the top players in the world, had looked like a shadow of her former self throughout much of the tournament. Gone was the pace [speed] that had once allowed her to run past defenders. Despite her age however, Wambach was still a savvy veteran, and a capable player on set pieces with her ability to leap over her markers.

And this time the oft-errant Rapinoe's volley found it's intended destination. The ball, sent in from nearly 30 yards away sailed perfectly over a leaping defenders head, and past the outstretched arms of the desperate diving goal-keeper - and onto the waiting forehead of Wambach, who buried the ball into the back right of the net.

2-2.

The goal ignited nothing short of pure mayhem. As Wambach sprinted toward the sideline in jubilation, her teammates mobbed her and the stadium erupted.

The Brazilian's just looked on dejected, stunned by the horrendous turn of their own fate.

Nothing I can say of course, could surpass seeing the moment yourself.

That goal, dramatic as it was however, only set up a finish that would have to be decided on penalty kicks.

For that, the US would have the advantage with Hope Solo, probably the finest keeper on the planet in their net.

Through two rounds the two teams stayed even, with both sides burying their opportunities with little difficulty. Then Solo made her presence known, making an unfathomable, fully extended, mid-air, diving stop against Dainae (who was responsible for the own-goal earlier), on a ball to her right to give the US the advantage.

With four rounds complete, the United States was up 4-3, and if they could bury their next one, it would be all over.

Taking the final kick for the US would be defender Ali Kreiger, a late entry since the player originally expected to take the shot, Rachel Buehler, has been ejected earlier.

12 years ago to the day was the day that the US women beat team China on penalty kicks to win the 1999 World Cup, an iconic moment that will be forever remembered by Brandi Chastain's topless celebration.

With cool resolve the unlikely replacement grounded a ball into the far left corner past the diving keeper, and the celebration was on.

It may not have been USA vs the Soviet Union in 1980, but if you care at all about the spectacle of sport, the thrill of competition, this contest has to rate as one of the greatest moments in US sports history.

A player down against a superior team, the United States found a way to succeed where almost anyone else would've failed. They had to play nearly 55 minutes at a grave disadvantage, to a point where other, lesser athletes would've caved to their exhaustion. Down a player and down a goal in the waning seconds of the contest this team rose to the moment, and became champions.

While the team may have lacked the pure skill and talent of their opponents, they displayed characteristics that are incredibly American: tenacity, courage, and perseverance.

Diminishing Skills

2011-07-10T23:49:00.006-05:00

What has happened to one of the most productive and consistent power hitter over the last 6 years, Adam Dunn? Even if he was to double his first half production during the second half he would not touch his expected production. Many people have speculated, from everyday regular fans all the way to future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, reasons why, from position switch to league switch to mechanical issues, but could diminishing skills be to blame?

In an earlier interview Dunn was quoted as saying “I would like to blame it on swinging at bad pitches, but I’m not doing that” at first glance that seems true; he is taking walks, with 46 so far this year. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different story. Dunn has been swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, in his career he has swung at pitches outside the strike zone at an average of 18.9%, this year though he has swung at 26.9% pitches outside of the strike zone. In addition, he is striking out at a 44% rate this year in comparison to a 33.4% rate for his career which indicates the 8% increase in pitches swung at outside the strike zone along with the 11% increase in strike outs would indicate he is not seeing the ball as well as he may think.

Along with striking out at a much higher percentage Dunn has also, seemingly, lost some strength. This is due to his drastically lower Home Run/ Flyball (HR/FB) ratio numbers. In his career 21.7% of Dunn flyballs have gone out of the park, this year that ratio has dropped to 10.5%, an 11% decline. The problem being, his flyball rate has not gone down; in fact it’s gone slightly up. Therefore he’s hitting the same number of flyballs with fewer going out of the park, in a more hitter friendly ballpark. Therefore, flyballs that used to go out, now become fly-outs.

Finally, Dunn’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is nearing a career low, .246. Typically an extremely low BABIP indicates a hitters lack of “luck”. The league average is .300, when a hitter is as far below as Dunn the popular thinking is that he will regress towards the mean. In Dunn’s case, I feel, this means that he in fact has lost the “understanding” of his hitting because he has lost power, a fact I feel I have laid out here, especially with so many of his hits being flyballs.

Could these drops in numbers be simply from the switching of leagues or positions or even teams? Even though Dunns “counting numbers” (HR’s, Hit’s etc.) have been mostly consistent over the last 6 years, his “rate numbers” (HR/FB, BABIP etc.) have been trending downward.

For instance you notice his HR/FB rate has been steadily trending downward and his K% has been trending upward two scary trends. These decreses in rate numbers show a hitter that has been slowly declining. These trends point to his skills slowly declining

Tyler Flowers Gets The Call

2011-07-10T16:31:00.000-05:00

Following the fastball that found Ramon Castro's throwing hand, resulting in him breaking that hand, I guessed that the White Sox would call up 25 year old prospect Tyler Flowers and indeed that is the case.

The right handed hitting Flowers who was acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade is an interesting prospect in many ways. A very big young man at 6'4" 240lbs, he's obviously rather over-sized for the position. For many years that size largely kept him from being an adequate defender, but the difference that I saw in him during spring training, coupled with what I've seen of him throughout this season have me believing that his defense has improved to the point where he could be adequate (but probably still a bit below average) on an every day basis.

The greatest strength in Flowers game of course, is his strength. While all of that size has prevented him from being a quality defender, he is extremely strong, as evidence by 80 career Minor League homeruns and 220 total extra base hits. Many of those long balls have been of the prodigious variety, and he's certainly strong enough to hit the ball out of any ballpark. In addition to the impressive power he does a very good job of drawing walks, doing so in 14.5% of his plate appearances. That power/walk combination has led to a career MiLB OPS of .876.

His weaknesses unfortunately are every bit as self evident as his strengths. The biggest thing that anyone would notice with Flowers is that he strikes out a ton. It's difficult to understate just how badly he struggles with strikeouts as he's done so in 28% of his total Minor League at-bats, and that rate as jumped to an astronomical 35.2% during his three stints (673 total ABs) in AAA. As a result of that Flowers hasn't hit for an impressive average since reaching AAA, hitting just .244 at that level.

While that rather significant weakness won't endear him to many fans, it should help that the team is regularly running out Adam Dunn, and realistically, Flowers can't be any worse than that. One could assume with near certainty that this weakness will only be further exploited against Major League pitchers who will surely exploit his propensity for swinging and missing at breaking stuff.

As a part time player however Flowers will hopefully have the advantage of getting spot starts in place of regular catcher A.J. Pierzynski. That should enable manager Ozzie Guillen to use Flowers against only the left handers he thinks he'll stand the best chances against, and if he does so well, Flowers should be capable of providing the team with a fair amount of positive offensive contribution.

Tigers Demote Furbush, Recall Worth

2011-07-09T23:46:00.000-05:00

A tough day for Tigers rookie Charlie Furbush all around today. Making his second start of the season today Furbush got shelled by the Royals, allowing nine hits and a pair of walks in just two and two thirds innings of work. It's likely that the damage could've been lessened had shortstop Ramon Santiago not allowed what should've been the final out of the third inning to scoot between his legs - after which the Royals pounded out five more runs (all unearned of course) on top of the four they had put up earlier in the game.

Tonight the Tigers have announced that they've optioned him back to AAA and recalled utilityman Danny Worth. Much like the demotion of Royals pitcher Danny Duffy however, the move could quite possibly have been nothing more than the teams desire to keep Furbush on his regular schedule through the All-Star break.

Of course after having allowed a .906 OPS against righties over 67 at-bats, the Tigers might also simply think that Furbush isn't quite ready to start in the Major Leagues, after all, getting righties out in AAA is something he struggled with to some extent as well. When the decision was made to place Furbush in the rotation, these struggles were something that I warned about and were the reason for the title of the post.

Thankfully to say, the young man has the tools available to him to get righties out - a solid change up in particular - but his sheer unwillingness to throw the pitch (he didn't throw it once last night) is hurting him as much as anything. His stuff is probably good enough to profile as a back end starter, even though his struggles against righties will hardly be eliminated, but he's going to need to show greater faith in his changeup instead of relying solely on his fastball and curveball.

Should the Tigers choose to make Charlie's demotion to AAA a long term one in which he's made to improve his changeup, and his willingness to throw it, then it's possible the team could either return Phil Coke to the rotation, or perhaps give rookie lefty Adam Wilk a shot at the job. In any case the Tigers will need to find a way to strengthen the back end of their rotation which, beyond ace Justin Verlander has really faltered since the beginning of June.

Ramon Castro Breaks Throwing Hand

2011-07-09T22:51:00.000-05:00

In the 8th inning of tonight's Twins, White Sox game with Jason Repko on second base, Twins second baseman Alexi Casilla squared around to bunt for a base hit, causing Sox catcher Ramon Castro to come out of his crouch. Casilla bulled the bat back, but Castro, perhaps distracted by the attempt missed catching the ball which instead sailed over his glove and hit him in his throwing hand. He immediately reacted in pain, but ran down the ball (which had sailed to the backstop) and made his way back to the plate before time was called.

The team immediately removed Castro from the game and took him down into the tunnel without so much as having him remove his catchers gear. A.J. Pierzynski would come on to replace Castro, record a leadoff double in the bottom of the 9th and come around to score the game winning run.

After the game it was announced that Castro had broken his right hand. While no timetable has been laid out yet, one would expect the injury to sideline Castro for at least 2-4 weeks. We also haven't received word on who the team will call up, but one would imagine that prospect Tyler Flowers could be the one who gets the call. Despite being extremely strikeout prone, Flowers has posted a .866 OPS at AAA so far this season, something that must be attractive to a White Sox team that's been rather starved for offense.

Plouffe Power

2011-07-09T14:54:00.000-05:00

The emergence of Trevor Plouffe at AAA this year has been one of the most heavily discussed story lines amongst Twins bloggers during the 2011 season (behind only the cavalcade of injuries, and dramatic discussions of Joe Mauer's future). That level of interest is hardly surprising as the shortstop and former 2004 first round pick (20th overall) has turned the corner in a big, big way at AAA this season.

For most of his Minor League career, Plouffe has been known as both offensively and defensively deficient. A SoCal prep pick, Plouffe is in his 8th season of toiling away in the Twins Minor League system and understandably, Twins fans likely feel as though he's been there forever, yet he's still just 25 years old. As a team that tends to move players just one level per year, Plouffe didn't first reach AAA until 2008 and didn't spend his first full season there until 2009.

Throughout his career, Plouffe's strengths and weaknesses have always been pretty readily apparent. As a career .257/.320/.406 hitter with an ISO of .148, a strikeout rate of 18.4%, and a walk rate of 7.8% we can see that he neither made enough contact to hit for average, nor drew enough walks to post respectable on-base numbers. His one real offensive strength was his ability to hit for power, an attribute that had been improving the past few years, before breaking through in a big, big way this season.

Defensively he's always had the raw tools to be a quality shortstop, and he still does. I'd rate his lateral range as slightly above average for a shortstop, and he's got the arm to make strong throws from deep in the hole. The problem is that his hands are not soft and he'll boot more of the routine plays than you'd like to see out of a shortstop and his arm is rather scatter-shot. In short, he'll probably get to somewhat more balls than your average shortstop, and he can make some spectacular plays, but he just hasn't been very consistent.

The reason for excitement with Plouffe however has precious little to do with his defense, but rather the offensive breakout he's experienced this season. After a career of Minor League mediocrity Plouffe is hitting .305/.379/.650 for an extremely impressive 1.029 OPS. He's mashed 15 home runs in just 181 at-bats (he's previous career high was 15 in 402 ABs last season), and has 29 extra base hits overall. He's walking more at an even 10.0% and his .300 BABIP suggests there isn't anything particularly flukey about his contact rates (though a .345 ISO is laughably unsustainable).

Looking at Plouffe's career progression we've seen steady improvement in his power as his ISO has improved from .097 to .186 last year, with marginal improvements having been made at essentially every stop. Generally speaking that isn't particularly unusual - power tends to develop with age and physical maturation after all - but a .187 ISO from a shortstop is very good (it's actually just pretty good in overall), and given his performance this season it seems likely that he's yet to realize his full power potential.

One thing that's held Plouffe back offensively is that unlike so many other well regarded prospects who routinely post BABIP marks in the .350 range during their MiLB careers (the sub-par defense is the Minors allows a higher % of balls in play to become hits), his career BABIP is a well below average .288. Of course a huge part of that is because he just doesn't hit many line drives. For his career his LD rate stands at just 14%, well below average. This year that rate has increased to a career best 17%, but even that mark isn't very impressive. On top of that he hits a ton of ground balls and with just average speed, that doesn't translate into many infield hits.

Given his propensity toward low line drive and BABIP marks, and a strikeout rate that is just average or slightly worse than average, the odds of Plouffe ever consistently hitting over .250 or so just doesn't seem very likely. However if he can continue to walk at a rate closer to 10% that could translate into a .250/.325 type of AVG/OBP. Add in power that could quite possibly be in the .200 ISO range and that gives you a hitter with an overall triple slash of .250/.325/.450 - or a .775 OPS - and seeing as how the MLB average for shortstops has been a paltry .698, it's not hard to see how impressive that mark really is.

Offensively Plouffe reminds me a lot of J.J. Hardy, who obviously had a very brief career with the Twins last year. Both players have plus power for their position, but have posted relatively weak AVG/OBP numbers due to similar LD/GB/FB rates. Hardy of course has always been a legitimately plus, and seriously under rated defensive shortstop, which Plouffe most certainly is not. But if Plouffe can simply manage to be a league average shortstop (and I think UZR would grade him out as one) his plus offense would make him a very rare commodity - a legitimately league average or better shortstop.

Grading Lonnie Chisenhall’s Potential

2011-07-09T10:53:00.005-05:00

First off, I would like to wish Lonnie a speedy recovery from that nasty ball to the face. It appears he suffered a fractured cheekbone, hopefully that will not keep him out of action too long.

Lonnie Chisenhall is an interesting player from a scouting and sabermetrics perspective. Some scouts love him and think he is without a doubt a future star, some say he is an average to above average player in the majors. His minor league numbers are underwhelming but his secondary statistics in the minors are somewhat encouraging. One thing everybody seems to agree on is that he has a sweet, smooth, and quiet swing. His defense projects to be average to above average which is also encouraging.

He is a player that has been a bit perplexing to me as well for all of the above mentioned reasons. I am normally the first person to call out an “overrated” prospect if their minor league numbers reflect some easily exploitable major league holes, but Chisenhall is not in that category. I am not particularly impressed with what he did in the minors, though he was dealing with some injury issues during some of that time. However, there are a lot of positive signs as well. Further, as there is not a lot of video available for his minor league at bats to the general public, I took to watching his major league at bats for a bit of information on his swing.

The reason scouts love Chisenhall are quickly apparent. He is 6’2” with a powerful but slender and athletic frame. He has a very very quick and smooth swing. His stance is very quiet and he generates a ton of bat speed coming through the zone. Furthermore, he has great plate coverage with his power as he stands just far enough inside to reach outside pitches powerfully with ease but not too far inside so as to be made helpless against inside pitching. Pitchers will have little success trying to blow him away with hard stuff. That said, he does seem to struggle a tad down and in, particularly on off speed pitches down and in. Tough left handers, particularly CC Sabathia, chewed him up with off speed pitches down and in but you cannot really fault a rookie player for letting CC dominate him. However, even in the 30 at bats that I watched, he already seemed to be making adjustments. He was able to lay off more off speed pitches inside and off the plate as he gained more experience. Further, his one home run came off a left hander on a down and in pitch (albeit a fastball), an encouraging sign for sure.

My hesitation about Chisenhall came mostly from his minor league production as all the scouting reports were exceptionally positive, for reasons I can now see. His final minor league triple slash line was .271/.344/.451. for a .795 OPS which was largely unchanged through the levels of the minors. Overall the line is underwhelming for a player who projects to be a superstar 3b. However, Chisenhall showed good contact skills as his strike out rate was never higher than 20%. Further Chisenhall showed a decent but unspectacular ability to take walks topping out at 8.8% BB/PA in his final full minor league season. In addition, Chisenhall showed decent, sustainable power hitting 22 home runs in 2009, and 17 in 2010 with over 500 PA. I say sustainable because he accumulated more doubles in both seasons indicating a fairly accurate balance between double and home run power for a young player. Overall, Chisenhall’s numbers are really marginally encouraging across the board but his final line is underwhelming. The reason it seems underwhelming is because Chisenhall only compiled a .271 career BA in the minors, a number that seems exceptionally low when you consider his good contact skills, ability to drive through the zone with power, and the fact that he was up against minor league level defense.

Generally speaking a players batting average will typically be higher in the minors due to inferior pitching and defense, sometimes substantially so. However, the encouraging sign is that players with superior contact skills generally translate their averages better. In Chisenhall’s case one might expect a corresponding drop in his BA when reaching the major league level but from watching him it is hard to tell why it was so low to begin with.

So now we see the conflict between Chisenhall’s appearance versus his production. So far in the majors, in a completely unreliable sample he is hitting similar to his minor league line with fewer walks and more power.

In this case, I think Chisenhall may be one of those players who outperforms his comparative minor league line and other minor league players who have performed better to this point both because he has a great skill set and because a lot of his peripheral stats in the minors were actually encouraging. This happens occasionally especially with players that have similar skills. Two players that come to mind immediately (I am not saying they are the same player on that they have similar traits) are Brennan Boesch and Matt Joyce (both actually featured even worse peripheral minor league numbers), both coming up from the Tigers system. Joyce had a quick, steady and powerful swing with decent although not spectacular plate coverage. His minor league numbers were underwhelming and his strike out numbers were very high even in the minors, but his powerful smooth swing would lead one to believe that he had more potential to be better than his numbers. In the majors Joyce has managed to hold his K rate close to his minor league K rate, even improving upon it, while increasing his walk rate and further developing his power. He is now is an above average major league corner outfielder with the Rays. Similarly Brennan Boesch was someone who sabermetricians loved to hate. He had a high K rate, low walk rate and low production in the minors. However, he did have a quick powerful swing with decent plate coverage and power. Since coming to the majors he has increased his walk rate and lowered his K rate from the minor leagues while increasing his overall level of production. The common denominator here is that all three players have quick, level, quiet and powerful swings, Chisenhall the best of the bunch.

The lesson here is that although the numbers are very very important, on occasion a player just demonstrates the tools necessary to overcome the flaws they are showing in the minor leagues. It is not unheard of and not unsurprising when such a player puts it all together. For this reason, I think a lot of the love for Chisenhall is completely justified despite some less than star level performances in the minors. He has clearly demonstrated the natural ability to overcome his shortcomings. I think Chisenhall’s low end is an average to above average 3b while his high end might just be a 3b star at the major league level. The reason I set his low end so high is simply because he has too much ability to believe he can produce at a level lower, especially given the overall weakness of the 3b position in the majors. I do believe his low end is more likely until he demonstrates improvement over a long period, but the high end potential is certainly there.

With Jason Kendall's Career Likely Over, A Look Back

2011-07-08T17:30:00.000-05:00

On September 1st of 2010, the Royals announced that starting catcher, and former Pittsburgh All-Star, Jason Kendall would undergo surgery to repair a tear in his right rotator cuff. The surgery was expected to keep him out for the rest of the 2010 campaign, and probably the first month or two of the 2011 season.

In early March Kendall was feeling good during his rehab and making some bold proclamations about wanting to be ready to go at the outset of the season. When it became apparent however that this wasn't realistic, the team made the move to bring in Rangers backstop Matt Treanor to share the catching duties with Brayan Pena. The two have done an admirable job filling in for Kendall as each has exceeded his career triple-slash line.

As the months ticked away without much word on the subject however, it became apparent that Kendall's rehab was not going as planned. Sadly yesterday it was revealed that two new tears in his right rotator cuff, essentially dooming his 2011 season, and likely ending his career.

As mentioned before, Kendall was once an All-Star caliber receiver who, over a span of four seasons from 1997 to 2000 never posted an OPS worse than .825, or stealing fewer than 18 bases. While he never hit for a significant amount of homerun power, Kendall worked the gaps hard during that stretch, becoming a regular fixture of the 30 double club, making him about as close a thing as there is to a five-tool catcher.

Beyond the impressive offensive numbers, Kendall was one of the games best defensive catchers. He smothered balls as well as anyone in the game, called a good game, and threw out runners at impressive clips. That total package of of offense and defense saw him post a phenomenal 20.0 WAR during those four seasons despite missing more than half of the 1999 season to injury. Only 25 other players were more valuable through those four seasons - and the list reads like a Hall-Of-Fame for the 90's.

Unfortunately as is the case for so many catchers, injuries began to take their toll on Kendall and his game declined rather quickly after the 2000 season. He'd go on top post an OPS over .800 just once more in his career during the 2003 season, and was finally traded by the Pirates - the organization he had spent his entire career with - following the 2004 season.

In terms of personal performance, Kendall's two seasons in Oakland were largely unsuccessful as he never posted an OPS above .710, but he did get an opportunity to catch one of the decades finest pitching staffs, and his work as a leader behind the plate helped the team to the post season (Kendall's first trip ever) in 2006. He'd go on to collect 8 hits - seven singles - in that series, and help bring the low-budget A's to the brink of the World Series.

Despite his role in their 2006 run however, the A's would go on to trade Kendall to the Cubs just prior to the trade deadline in 2007. At the time, Kendall was mired in his worst start ever, hitting just .226 with a hideous .542 OPS. Following the trade however he would go on to post a .718 mark over the final two and a half months and once again made it to the post season. He'd make just one start however, going 1-4, before the Cubs were dispatched.

While he finished the 2006 season strong for the Cubs, it wasn't enough to convince them to bring him back and he'd instead go on to sign with the Brewers, where he'd spend the next two seasons. The power and speed he once had were long since sapped by this point in his career, and the former all-star was a shell of his former self, but his intangible abilities behind the plate and in the clubhouse kept him around, and in 2008, his first season with the Brewers, he'd once again help his team into the playoffs. After ten seasons without a trip to the playoffs, Kendall would be making his third.

That was the Brewers team that had acquired Indians ace C.C. Sabathia at the deadline and made a headlong rush over the second half into the playoffs. Unfortunately for Kendall it would once again end before the team could reach the World Series as the Brewers were dispatched by the Phillies in the first round.

Kendall would go on to spend one more year with the Brewers, then signed as a free agent with the Royals for two years. It appears increasingly unlikely that Kendall will play another game in the Majors, but during the first year of that contract Kendall wound up doing essentially what he had started his career doing: he helped a young team that was struggling to find itself. Except this time instead of being it's best player on the field, he was trying to help them in the kinds of ways that only an experienced player who's seen the highest of highs, and the lowest of lows could.

Gregarious until the very end, one of my fondest memories will have been of Kendall handing his elbow pad to an overly eager reporter wanting to see what it was like to get hit by a pitch. The consumate career professional and wise veteran may be bemoaned by some for what he couldn't be at the end of his career, but if you look beyond the declining offensive numbers he posted as his career wound down, you'll see a man who never stopped finding ways to contribute to a baseball team, regardless of what his body was trying to tell him.

And that speaks volumes to the quality of the character of the man. If this really is the end, hats off to a wonderful career Jason.

Royals Demote Danny Duffy, Promote Teaford

2011-07-08T16:38:00.000-05:00

When I saw that little tidbit flash across my Twitter feed I was certainly surprised, after all Danny Duffy had just gotten done turning in six quality innings against a potent Tigers lineup. While Duffy has certainly struggled to a 4.85 ERA and his sometimes sketchy command has led to a propensity to run up his pitch counts quickly, he's also shown flashes of the type of dominance people expect to see more of in the future - like striking out more than a batter per inning during his last four outings.

In a rotation that ranks second to last in all of Major League Baseball with a 5.06 ERA (The Cubs are the worst at 5.23), Duffy would seem to be the least of the teams concerns.

But it would appear that Duffy's demotion had nothing to do with his performance, rather the team is simply taking advantage of an opportunity to keep him working. While Duddy's next scheduled start would've fallen during the All-Star break, by sending him back to AAA Omaha, they can keep him on his regular schedule without it effecting the teams rotation depth.

It also gives the team an opportunity to carry an extra reliever, and they've chosen to bolster their bullpen by giving 27 year old lefty Everett Teaford another opportunity. Teaford worked in 14 games earlier this year, notching a .284 ERA, but posting horrible peripherals, including a negative K/BB ratio. In all likelihood the poor K/BB numbers are an aberration as he's consistently posted strong metrics in the Minors, including an 8.13K/2.61BB ratio in AAA this season.

Duffy's first regularly scheduled post-all-star-break start would've been on the 19th, and it's likely that the team will keep Teaford (or another player) on the roster in Duffy's spot until the day before that start before calling their talented young lefty back up.

Indians Top Prospect Lonnie Chisenhall Hit In Face By Pitch

2011-07-08T16:20:00.002-05:00

Update: It's being reported that Chisenhall has a broken Maxillary (cheek) bone in the right side of his face. The injury won't require surgery, and there are no signs of a concussion. Status is still day-to-day.

While last nights Indians-Blue Jays contest will be remembered primarily as the game in which the Indians stunning comeback from a 4-0 deficit in the bottom of the ninth inning was punctuated by Travis Hafner's walkoff grand slam - the more important news may have been that the team survived a serious scare when it's top prospect, third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, was hit in the face by a pitch from Jays starter Carlos Villanueva.

Thankfully to say it appears Chisenhall avoided any serious injury when x-rays came back negative, and his was diagnosed with only facial contusions. It looks as though Chisenhall managed to turn his head just in time and the ball caught the edge of his ear-flap before careening to a halt against the right side of his face. He'd leave the game, but with nothing broken won't be heading to the disabled list.

Talk about catching - or perhaps avoiding - a break.

I haven't seen any official word from the team yet, but it appears Lonnie will only be day-to-day, and the teams callup of Luis Valbuena along with the presence of Jack Hannahan who has started most of the year at third base should help allow them to cover for any time the third third baseman of the future might miss.

Indians Recall Luis Valbuena, Demote Zach McAllister

2011-07-08T15:35:00.000-05:00

When the Indians promoted Zach McAllister we knew ahead of time that the move would be for only one day, at which point the team would option McAllister back to AAA and recall an infielder. What we didn't know was which infielder it would be. Jason Donald, who opened the season with the big-league club before getting injured was one option, the other was former second baseman Luis Valbuena.

As I wrote about earlier today the 26 year old Valbuena has absolutely been on fire this season, posting an OPS of .896 with 12 home runs at AAA Columbus. This of course comes as little surprise to Indians fans who have seen him do this before. Valbuena has spend parts of three seasons in AAA with the Indians, and during his time in Columbus, the .896 mark he's managed this year stands as his WORST performance yet.

To put it simply, he's just too good for that league.

What Valbuena hasn't been able to do in his 762 MLB plate appearances however, is show that he can translate that success to the Major Leagues. While his MiLB numbers have been inflated by BABIP numbers that couldn't possibly translate to the Major Leagues (as is so often the case), Valbuena has always shown the peripherals to suggest he could translate into a capable MLB regular. His career AAA slash line of .308/.394/.481 with a BABIP of .345 and an ISO of .172 suggest a neutralized line of .263/.349/.435.

Even accounting for MLB regression, that should still project to a .250/.330/.420 MLB bat - and a .750 OPS out of a second baseman or shortstop like Valbuena would be well above the league averages for either position.

So why has he failed?

Well, so far we've seen some of the trend lines you expect to see from a Minor Leaguer making the transition to the Majors. After posting a strikeout rate of 18.7% in AAA, that number has risen to 22.4% in the Majors, while his AAA walk rate of 12.1* has fallen to 7.6% in the Majors. In addition, it would seem that those decreases in contact and selectivity have effected his power, as his .172 MiLB ISO stands at just .112 in the Majors. A BABIP of just .274 hasn't helped matters either.

In 2010 the Indians did see a slight uptick in Valbuena's walk rate to 9%, but he was really hurt by an outrageously unlucky .238 BABIP, and a near total collapse in the power department, which is where he's usually generated most of his offensive value.

Valbuena has proven to be one of those annoyingly talented players. His raw skills are pretty undeniable, he's a a plus athlete but that hasn't necessarily helped him be a good defender, and his strong hitting skills so far haven't translated in the Majors.

At 26 and in his final season with an option left, the Indians are in a tough spot. You'd hate to bury the young man at AAA, then lose him to waivers, or be forced to trade him for less than full when 2012 rolls around. At the same time you can't really afford to play him regularly in the middle of a division leading season unless you're certain he can help your ballclub.

The best case scenario would obviously be for Valbuena to take the call up and whatever playing time he receives and run with it. That'd provide the team with another strong option down the line, or a valuable trade commodity at the deadline, or during the upcoming off season. How it all turns out however will rest on the shoulders of Valbuena himself. He has all the talent in the world, he needs to show the Indians or another team that they should take another chance on it.

Astros Claim Lucas Harrell

2011-07-08T15:02:00.000-05:00

It appears the White Sox have lost starter Lucas Harrell to waivers. The Astros have apparently claimed the 26 year old righty who made three starts for the Sox in 2010 (in 8 total appearances), and saw action in three relief appearances this year. That the White Sox would expose Harrell to waivers isn't necessarily a huge deal with the team still running it's six man rotation, but he was probably the organizations best in-house option should the rotation suffer another injury (starter John Danks is currently on the disabled list).

Harrell was lost when the team decided to try and pass him through waivers, and replace him with Hector Santiago who has been strong in his first two MLB outings following solid outings in both High A, and AA this season. With few other available options, it would appear that Santiago will become the White Sox defacto emergency starter should the need arise.

Good Problems to Have: Too Many Quality Middle Infielders

2011-07-08T14:29:00.002-05:00

This doesn't happen very often, but the Indians find themselves in an exceptionally rare, and thoroughly enviable position. They have too many quality middle infielders. While the team has an all-star caliber shortstop in Asdrubal Cabrera who was putting up a monster 2011 campaign, hitting .284/.342/.497 prior to suffering a ankle sprain that'll put him on the shelf for awhile.

The Indians middle infield talent doesn't end there however. Last years opening day second baseman, 26 year old Luis Valbuena, opened 2011 in AAA after the team signed veteran Orlando Cabrera this winter and has done nothing but impress while playing all over the infield - though primarily at shortstop.

In parts of three seasons, Valbuena has managed just a career .637 OPS, but by hammering AAA pitching to the tune of a .315/.385/.521 line with an impressive 12 home runs, he's also showing he has no business being in the Minors either. Yes he's been aided by a .360 BABIP, but his strikeout and walk rates, along with his isolated power both suggest a player who should be capable of being at least a league average offensive second baseman or shortstop.

The problem of course, is that he's blocked by other players like...

Cord Phelps and Jason Kipnis.

While Kipnis gets the bulk of the attention - and deservedly so - Phelps himself has quietly put together a very strong Minor League career and was finally afforded the opportunity to prove that he could contribute to a Major League squad. His overall MLB stat line in limited time hasn't been phenomenal (.641 OPS), but he's spent the past two seasons raking in AAA, posting a .892 mark in 2010, and a .879 mark prior to his callup this season.

While his tools are less impressive than his production, he's a solid baseball player, and one of those guys who's game always seems better than the sum of his parts. Still I think his contact tool and his eye should make him capable of posting a solid batting average and on-base percentage, while he's got solid gap power and could pop 10-15 home runs a year.

Defensively his range is limited by his sub-par athleticism, but he's got sure hands and a capable arm. Though it's certainly fair to say that those skills haven't been evident early on as he made five errors in his first twelve games, which led to him seeing little playing time. He was recently sent down when the team called up Zach McAllister to make a spot start. You can read my full pre-season scouting report on Phelps here.

The player everyone is anxious to see however, is Kipnis. A converted outfielder who the Indians were concerned was a tweener in a corner outfield spot, Kipnis has proven to be a star with the bat at second base. In his three Minor League seasons the 24 year old Kipnis' worst performance was a .847 OPS during his debut season. Since that strong showing in A ball, he's done nothing but improve and so far this year has a .901 OPS for AAA Columbus. At the plate Kipnis can do a bit of everything. He's got a very quick, polished swing that doesn't have any glaring holes in it. He makes good adjustments to the breaking ball, has a solid eye at the plate, and shows similar power to Phelps.

Defensively Kipnis doesn't have the polish of someone who's spent a lifetime playing in the middle infield - because he hasn't. But just watching him, it's apparent that he's gotten far more comfortable at the position. His actions are more fluid, his transfers and throws better. Kipnis is still a bit of a work in progress in the field, but he's already a capable defender and he's one of the players who the Indians will be relying on, along with Cabrera and top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall and Matt LaPorta to form the franchise's infield for many years.

How the Indians will resolve this "problem," remains to be seen. It's certainly possible that the team could keep two of the three around, but realistically, there just aren't enough at-bats to go around for all three players, and none have much of anything left to prove at AAA. Meaning someone is likely to become a trade candidate. Who that is remains to be seen (it almost certainly won't be Kipnis), but any of the three could be used to help strengthen another area of organizational weakness.

Swapping Problems Isn't a Solution

2011-06-30T15:29:00.001-05:00

When the Tigers announced that Phil Coke would be a member of the teams starting rotation following the 2010 season, I was skeptical. Coke had worked primarily as the stereotypical fastball/slider reliever during his time with the Yankees before mixing in his changeup last year when he was traded to Detroit and it was effective enough (1.40R/C - runs above average/100 pitches).

Still, the thought of moving someone who had worked largely with the platoon split - while showing a significant platoon split - to the rotation seemed risky. Coke posted a 32K/8BB ratio in 28.2 innings vs lefties last year, but had a 21K/18BB ratio in 36.0 innings vs righties, which should've let anyone paying attention know that he would struggle mightily in the rotation, where he can't be protected from seeing twice as many right handers as left handers.

In the bullpen last year, Coke posted a strong 3.23 FIP, but a .335 BABIP pushed his ERA up to 3.76. But with his move to the rotation, his strikeout rate has plummeted from 7.38 to 4.32 and though he's remained one of the most HR lucky pitchers in baseball with a miniscule 2.9 HR/FB% his ERA after a final ugly start is a ghastly 4.91.

In response to Coke's recent struggles (he's allowed 16ER in his past three starts, totaling 13.2IP) the Tigers have decided to give lefty Charlie Furbush a chance to start instead. In profiling Furbush I noted that he has a bevy of capable MLB offerings, but lacked a true put-away pitch. His slider and curveball have proven effective against left handers, but like Coke, he's shown a significant platoon split with a 2.11 FIP against lefties and a 6.77 against righties.

Of all of Furbush's off-speed options, I think his changeup shows the most promise, along with offering the best potential as a viable option against - but it's also the pitch he's shown the least faith in, throwing it just 4.1% of the time. If Furbush, who's 3/4 slot will give righties a very good look at his off-speed offerings is going to survive in the rotation on a long-term basis, he'll need to show both a good feel for, and a greater faith in that changeup.

My intent here isn't to suggest that Furbush can't be an effective starter - at least for awhile - but on a long term basis, he isn't likely to be anything more than a back-end arm if he continues to operate as is. If he can't find that effective method for dealing with right handers, the Tigers will essentially be swapping one under-tooled left-handed option for the next.

And that's not a solution.

Lornezo Cain Begging For Promotion

2011-06-26T20:14:00.000-05:00

No, not literally, though he could be forgiven if he was.

Twenty five year old Lornezo Cain, who was acquired in the Zach Grinke trade this winter has been crushing AAA pitching to the tune of a .301/.373/.513 triple slash. Following this winter's trade however I fully expected that Cain would be handed the starting center fielder job given his solid .306/.348/.415 line in 158 plate appearances with the Brewers last season, even though it was heavily BABIP fueled. On top of the solid offense, Cain also played strong defense, posting a +5.7 UZR/150.

The team however followed up that trade by bringing in Melky Cabrera from the Braves, and it became apparent early in spring training that the center field job was his to lose. So far, he hasn't really done anything to lose it, per se, he's hitting .275/.315/.435, good for a .750 OPS that's above the MLB average of .750. He's been worth a total of 1.7 WAR so far in 2011, a solid mark that would put him on pace for around 3.0.

This convergence of a solid Cabrera and a blistering Cain has made for a situation in which the Royals look like they're blocking a prospect, but at the same time, it's not like Cabrera has been terrible. While that may or may not be true, it's important to recognize that Cain hot hitting has been fueled, at least in part, by a wildly unsustainable .361 BABIP.

Unfortunately for Cain to reach the Majors in 2011, one of the following three things would likely need to happen:

1) An injury to one of the starting outfielders.
2) A drop off in production from Cabrera.
3) A trade.

Of the three options, all present reasonable opportunities for Cain as Alex Gordon is hardly known for his health, Cabrera is hardly known for his production, and both Cabrera and Jeff Francouer are certainly available in the right trade.

So it would seem that eventually, Cain will get an opportunity to play in 2011. The only question, is when? To that end, there seems to be a growing consensus that the correct answer to that question is, "yesterday."

I will dissent however. As noted above, Cabrera has produced sufficiently well, particularly for a center fielder and hasn't really done anything to suggest that he's a liability to the team. Bringing up Cain now would likely cause a number of bad things to happen. For one, it sets a bad precedent for players currently on the team that even if you are producing, you're still liable to be benched. Second of all, it serves to diminish some of the trade value Cabrera has built up by putting the team in the position of needing to move an outfielder, which is bad. Versus being in a position where they could move an outfielder, which is good.

Perhaps most importantly however, there is little guarantee that Cain will succeed. While he's done a phenomenal job in AAA, and has a small sample of success in his time with the Brewers, all of that success has been heavily dependent upon BABIP numbers that simply cannot be counted on to hold out over the long term. That's especially true for a player like Cain, who has consistently posted K rates in the 20-25% range.

Instead of concerning themselves with how to get Cain onto a last place team as soon as possible, the organization should be doing it's best to ensure that they see at least a modest return on assets like Cabrera and Francouer. I may have criticized the signings this winter, but they've both played well and now the franchise has an opportunity to capitalize on some of that performance by turning them into a couple more prospects who can help with the long-term rebuilding process that the organization is working toward.

There will come a time when Lorenzo Cain will come up and get his chance to earn an everyday job in the Major leagues. But it shouldn't be just yet.

In His Own Words: Kyle Gibson

2011-06-26T19:44:00.002-05:00

This interview was conducted by Nate Rowan, a recent graduate of Concordia College, Moorhead where he majored in Print Journalism and Communications, and did play by play work for Cobber athletics.

Kyle Gibson was selected by the Minnesota Twins in the first round (22nd overall) in the 2009 First-Year Player Draft out of the University of Missouri. In 2010, spending time at single-A Fort Myers, double-A New Britain and triple-A Rochester, Gibson was 11-6 with a 2.96 ERA in 26 starts including two complete games. He walked only 39 batters in 152 innings of work.

So far this season, Gibson is 3-7 with a 3.89 era in 14 starts. He was named the International League Pitcher of the Week for the week ending May 29. In that stretch, Gibson posted a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA in two starts while surrendering just seven hits in 12 2/3 innings.

Nate: I understand you are a recent newlywed; talk about that a little bit and how marriage has changed your perspective on the game of baseball?  

Kyle: "Through the years of growing up and maturing, even through college, I learned quickly that baseball is important, very important, but in the grand scheme of things it is always important that baseball is kept in its spot on my list of priorities. And even though it is a job field that is extremely fun and enjoyable, it cannot take precedence over other things in my life.  "

Nate: Talk about your recruitment and decision to attend the University of Missouri. It seems like the Tigers continually produce some of the top pitchers in the college game. Why do you think that is?  

Kyle: "Coach [Tony] Vitello, who is now a recruiting coordinator at TCU, saw me play the summer after my junior year and was the last school to get involved in the recruiting process. I just really liked the school, the coaches, and their facilities. Combine all of those things with the level of play in the Big 12 conference, and that is the reason Missouri was the right choice for me. I think Missouri is really good at developing pitchers because they have a philosophy very similar to a professional pitching staff. Attack the zone and go at contact. Do not walk guys and make them swing.  "

Nate: Last season you were named the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year; who or what do you credit the most in your development since joining the Twins organization?  

Kyle: "I think there are a lot of pitching coaches to thank for my development. I was a process last year for me to get used to the pro ball game and making sure my body was ready for the five day rotation. That and getting my pitches ready and more refined were two things that really helped me throughout the season. And of course the defense always plays good, and that helps a lot.  "

Nate: You were named the top prospect in the Twins organization by Baseball America in 2011. What has the Twins Front Office revealed to you about their plans for your development and can Twins fans expect a Kyle Gibson sighting at Target Field in 2011?  

Kyle: "The front office never really reveals too many plans to players because they always want you working hard toward a goal of being a big league player and not to get complacent. I think they want me to just try and keep developing, and making everything I do a little bit better each time out. All that I have heard from them is keep working and trying to get myself in a situation that if I am called up at whatever point in my career that is, that I can be at my best and make a good effort of sticking in the big leagues. They have made it clear that they do not want to rush me too much, and they said when I am ready, they will call me up. I believe that very much and that makes it easy for me. I just have to go out and work hard, and try and get better and allow the front office to make the decision when I am ready."

Nate: Talk about your repertoire of pitches for those unfamiliar with you and what would you consider as your “out” pitch?

Kyle: "Well I think what makes me the pitcher I am, is the fact that I will throw any pitch in any count for a strike when I am feeling at my best. But if I need to go to a certain pitch for a strikeout it’s probably going to be a slider most of the time on a righty and a changeup or a slider on a lefty. But on the good days sometimes they all can be go-to pitches. But those days don’t happen very often!"

Nate: You talked about the Twins system earlier and how they have developed you. How have you progressed this season, what aspect of the game has improved the most and what would you like to better in your own personal game?

Kyle: "Well each outing I have felt as if I have learned something. My main goal is to get experience and make sure there is no situation I haven't been in, and no situation I can’t work through. I think the main thing I need to work on now is [fastball] command and throwing not just strikes, but quality strikes in the location where I want to throw them."

Nate: The Twins have had injury problems all season long and that has affected the personnel with the Red Wings. What affect does that have on you, if any, and what are you doing personally in an attempt to avoid missing any action?

Kyle: "I would say it hasn't affected me too much except for having a lot of different guys on the team. But that has been fun to meet a lot of people and get to play the game with them. To stay healthy it’s a couple things; try and rest plenty, try and keep up on my workouts and training room work. But so far this year, God has blessed me with good health and I hope it keeps staying that way!"

Nate: It's game day at Frontier Field and you are scheduled to start. What is your routine the day of the game and do you do anything that would be called "out of the ordinary"?

Kyle: "My routine is show up about three hours or so before the game and relax. Play cards, go out and watch some [batting practice], eat some food and just chill out a bit. Then about an hour and 15 min before game time start getting dressed, shower if I need to, and get in the training room to get a stretch from our trainer by 45 min prior to game time. Then 30 to 35 [minutes] before game time I get outside, stretch, throw and get ready. Nothing too out of the ordinary though."

Tigers Option Danny Worth, Activate Brandon Inge

2011-06-24T16:38:00.000-05:00

Today the Tigers will get back one of their most beloved, and reviled players, Brandon Inge. A fan favorite, as well as whipping boy, Inge has been out for the past 20 games with mononucleosis (mono) which was likely at least somewhat to blame for his hideous .211/.279/.286 triple-slash over his first 181 plate appearances.

For his career Inge is a .236/.306/.390 hitter who's offensive value comes almost exclusively from his ability to crack 15-20 home runs per season as he neither hits for average, nor gets on base at an enticing rate. In addition to his home run power, Inge has generally played plus defense at third base, with a +5.7 career UZR/150. It's worth noting however that his UZR slipped below the 5.0 level for the first time since 2005 last year (3.5), and is at just 2.7 in 2011.

If Inge can't continue to be a legitimately plus defender, his inability to get on base at a respectable rate will render him an essentially worthless player.

The move will give the Tigers back their regular third baseman, while utility infielder Danny Worth will be optioned back to AAA. Worth was given just 31 plate appearances in Inge's absence but made the most of them, putting together a .310/.355/.379 line. He'll likely be the first call-up should the team suffer another infield injury.

Tigers Demote Adam Wilk, Recall Ryan Perry

2011-06-23T13:59:00.000-05:00

After a solid 2010 campaign, the Tigers and their fans were undoubtedly hoping that young, hard throwing righty Ryan Perry could build on his performance and leap into the discussion of elite setup men. A classic hard throwing (94-95mph) fastball/slider reliever, Perry instead struggled mightily to open this season, boosting his strikeout rate to an impressive 8.71, but simultaneously displaying horrendous control, walking nine batters in his 10.1 innings of work.

How much of those struggles were related to an infected eye that was originally thought to be the by-product of allergies this summer is uncertain, though it seems likely that a pitcher like Perry, who has never had great control, but also never experienced control issues this bad, was certainly adversely affected by the issue. With his control back (1.65BB/9 in 16.1 AAA innings of work) Perry and his powerful fastball/slider combo seem ready to rejoin the Tigers bullpen and hopefully help add further strength to a unit that already features three high quality arms.

For his part, the left handed Adam Wilk pitched about as well as could be expected. Despite possessing underwhelming raw stuff (his fastball works in the 87-88mph range) and getting hit fairly hard (5.91 ERA), he gave the team 10.2 innings, mostly in long relief, and flashed strikeout and walk rates that could play long-term in a long-relief role or as a lefty specialist. He'll head back to AAA where he can continue to improve and hopefully return one day.

The Amazing Vanishing Offense and What it Means for the Game as a Whole

2011-06-22T12:49:00.000-05:00

Over the past decade many baseball fans have become accustomed to games scores like 6-4, or 7-3 - and if you grew up around the baseball of the mid-90s and early 2000s (like me) you likely know of little else. Runs being scored in bunches has been more of less a fact of life for the past twenty years.

Of course, things weren't always this way.

If you're somewhat older than my twenty eight years (almost) of age, and can recall watching baseball in the 70s and 80s, you'll recall a game that was dominated by the pitcher. Unfortunately, that bygone era of the 3-2 game has long been thought dead, a victim of lowered mounds, juiced hitters, and league expansion that left too few quality arms available.

But slowly, almost imperceptibly, the tide has begun to turn. Five years ago in 2006 as baseball was (finally) cracking down on performance enhancing drugs, the Major League average OPS stood at a startling .768. That translated into an average of 4.86 runs per game, per team (4.96 in the AL). So far in 2011 however, those numbers have plummeted to .708 and 4.18.

I'm sure to some, that might not seem like much, but it represents a 14% decline in total offense since 2006, and an even more pronounced 19.4% dip from 2000, when the average runs per game spiked at 5.18. Combined, that means you're seeing almost two full runs fewer per game than you would've a decade ago. It returns the game to an offensive state that it hasn't seen since 1992, when the average runs per game was 4.12, and the OPS .700.

In other words, it's been almost twenty years since we've seen this little offense.

Why league wide offense has fallen back shouldn't be too hard to determine, it's most likely the result of getting performance enhancing drugs out of the game. For now at least. I will buy the notion that pitching is also, at long last beginning to catch up to hitting, but that would only explain the difference in runs produced by a small degree. This is what a clean (or at least, cleaner) game looks like, and in this new reality, teams are forced to adapt.

For the past two decades we've been taught that pitching wins games and well, that's still true. No single player can really influence any one particular game more than the starting pitcher. But with runs becoming harder and harder to come by, offense and the declining number of players who are capable of producing it, become increasingly valuable.

That of course shifts the player acquisition paradigm for GMs, who should now be looking for greater returns when trading an offensive player, or be willing to shell out somewhat more in free agency for them than they may have in the past. In the American League, that could mean we see an increase in value for designated hitters, a group of players who's value had been on the decline for some time. League wide, we could see an increase in value for those all-bat, no defense corner infield/outfield players who's contributions have also been marginalized the past couple seasons.

Correspondingly, while elite starting pitching will always be hard to come by, the decline in overall offense means that the number of starting pitchers capable of posting sub-4.20 ERAs (the old middle ground) has grown significantly, therefor making them less valuable. Don't believe me? In 2006, 39 qualified starting pitchers managed a 4.20 ERA. So far in 2011, there are 76 starters who've done so.

Capable starting pitching just isn't nearly as difficult to come by as it was just a few short years ago - or rather what our definition of quality starting pitching is, must be redefined. If in 2006 we called those Top-40 pitchers who posted sub 4.20 ERAs to be those of quality, then by those same standards, the Top-40 pitchers today would be those who post sub 3.35 ERAs.

That means you'd have to adjust your definition of "quality starter" down nearly a full run. Hardly an easy mental transition for those who are accustomed to something like 4.00 being the threshold for quality.

The game is changing, and that will mean significant changes for the casual fan who may not understand why their teams offense is doing so much worse than it was just a couple seasons ago. It will also mean significant changes for the sabermetric community, who's FIP and WAR valuations will be doing a virtual 180. And, as noted above it'll mean a distinct shift in player value for GMs who are trying to put the best possible teams on the field. Those GMs who are able to stay ahead of this curve will also be those who are best positioned to take advantage of those who do not.

The Real Brennan Boesch Has Stood Up

2011-06-20T18:08:00.001-05:00

In examining Brennan Boesch's 2010 season, one sees the easy study in contrast - the scorching hot .387 BABIP fueled start to his season in which he raced off to a .345/.397/.593 start - and the inevitable crash that followed that.

Prior to this season I examined that dichotomy in detail and did my best to project what we could expect from Boesch during the 2011 season, eventually determining that he could become a .250/.330/.500 type of bat. So far in 2011 Brennan has produced a .297/.356/.482 that is higher on batting average and on base percentage, and lower on slugging that I expected, but still right on the OPS line (I projected .830, he's at .838). He's still been a bit BABIP lucky, posting a .318 mark, the difference however, is in the degrees.

Whereas the Boesch from the first half of 2010 was wildly lucky, the Boesch of 2011 is perfectly well within the margins of error. IE: it's possible he could sustain this sort of performance throughout the remainder of the year.

Beyond his lower BABIP however, there are other, more important peripheral metrics that portend sustained success. On the surface we see an improved strikeout rate that's fallen from 21.3% to 17.5%. That's largely due to the fact that he's reduced his frighteningly high 41.1% out-of-zone swing rate to a more manageable 35.0%. That improved plate discipline has allowed Boesch to put more balls in play, resulting in the improved batting average - it's also likely a key contributor to the modest improvement he's made in his walk rate.

Digging deeper into the well of peripheral metrics, we see across the board improvements in the type of contact Boesch is making. For a power hitter like Boesch, who's speed is more average than plus, it's to his advantage to maximize his line drive and fly-ball rates. Line drives of course, fall in for hits far more than any other type of batted ball (around 65% of the time on average) and fly balls turn into home runs far more often, say, ground balls.

This is all intuitive enough of course, but it's also tangible. In this post I explain how and why different types of batted balls are beneficial to different types of hitter. In Brennan's case, his line drive rate has improved from 15.2% to 18.0% while his power-sapping ground ball rate has fallen from 45.1% to just 38.9%.

So far advanced defensive metrics suggest that Boesch is better suited to left field, where he has a +9.4 UZR/150 than right, where his UZR has been negative. With the return of Magglio Ordonez, I suspect that's where he'll receive the bulk of his time. Of course, neither UZR sample size is large enough to give us a definitive view of where he'll be best suited defensively, but he's likely to be at least a league average defender regardless of where he plays.

All of these things, from the lack of a pronounced platoon split, to an improved plate approach, to the improved contact, to the less pronounced BABIP marks all bode well for long-term success and make Brennan less of a curiosity, and more of a player the team can look to build on long-term.

Joe Mauer Returns, Twins Outright Brian Dinkelman

2011-06-17T14:48:00.000-05:00

It's been a long season for the Minnesota Twins, who've suffered through injuries to essentially every key member of their team - and ineffectiveness even when healthy. But with the return of second baseman/shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and reliever Glen Perkins yesterday, the team put itself on a path to health that should continue for the next couple of weeks.

While those two returned yesterday, the Twins will get their best player back today as Joe Mauer makes his much awaited return to the Twins lineup. Since leaving the team with what was initially diagnosed as bi-lateral leg weakness, a neurological condition in which weakness in the legs is caused by misfirings in the brain, spinal cord, or nerves - there has been a massive amount of hand wringing, speculation, and misinformation - and a notable lack of information coming from either the organization or Mauer himself. Whatever the problems Mauer was having were, they were most certainly exacerbated by a prolonged bout with the flu which left Mauer (along with other members of the team) hospitalized and taking fluids.

Some fans seem to be under the (mistaken) impression that Mauer's time away from the game was somehow the result if inadequate off season conditioning following his knee surgery this past off season. That largely stems from a misunderstanding of the condition Mauer was dealing with along with an unfortunate naming of his diagnosis - bi-lateral leg weakness - which many fans simply translated as "out of shape."

Thankfully to say, the condition is treatable and it certainly appears that the team has given Mauer all the time necessary to recover from the condition prior to sending him out on his rehab stint. The problems however could've become much worse as bi-lateral leg weakness, if left untreated can lead to all kinds of nasty neurological conditions in the future. This largely helps explain why the team treated their 23m dollar man with such an abundance of caution.

The case has also given those who've called for Mauer to change position yet another straw to grasp at - even some writers who I have a lot of respect for have, unfortunately, chosen to join this faction. The Twins for their part, are thankfully brushing aside such nonsense and leaving Mauer at catcher where he belongs, and where his value is maximized.

In any case, regardless of where you fall on the "is Mauer simply being too soft," or the "should he change positions," debate - the return of Mauer is beyond any shadow of a doubt, the biggest and best possible news the Twins could receive.

Mauer is more than just the face of the franchise, with due respect to Justin Morneau, he's the teams best player by a massive margin - accumulating no less than 5.6 WAR since 2007. In fact, since 2006 Mauer's 29.1 WAR is nearly double that of his closest competitor and fellow MVP, Morneau, who comes in at 18.2.

Of course, comparing Mauer only to players on his own team is almost an insult to his greatness; since 2006 Mauer's 29.1 WAR is 8th best in all of baseball amongst position players - the next best catcher is Brian McCann at a distant 22.9. And keep in mind that's he's posted no WAR at all in 2011.

Yet.

In Mauer's absence the team has received the expected meager production from it's backup catchers and in his return, will be able to transition from being one of the weakest overall positions in the league, to one of the strongest. If he performs as he's capable of doing (no sure thing given his long layoff and the rust that should be expected) it'll be a significant offensive boon to a Twins team that is currently surging, having won eleven of it's past thirteen games to elevate it's won-loss record from a, "potentially historically awful 17-37," to a just, "really bad 28-39."

To make room for Mauer, the Twins have outrighted the out-of-options infielder/outfielder Brian Dinkelman. Should he clear waivers, he'll return to AAA. Dinkelman hit .286 in his 17 plate appearances, drawing a chuckle-worthy two intentional walks.

Indians Activate Travis Hafner, Option Travis Buck

2011-06-17T14:01:00.001-05:00

The Indians, who have been in free-fall mode for the past two weeks got a welcome bit of good news today as they activated slugging DH Travis Hafner from the disabled list.

Hafner should help shore up an offense that has produced just 30 runs in the teams past fourteen games. In that time span, the team has won just three games, part of a larger overall slide that has seen them go just 6-16 since May 24th. They've also watched what was once a six game lead crater into a one game deficit. The offense, which has produced just 2.14 runs per game since June second (they had a 13 run outburst on the 1st), isn't solely to blame however as the team has also allowed 71 runs over the same time span as the early season pitching that had carried the team suffered some of the expected regression.

Indeed, the Indians are struggling in all facets of the game at the moment, and the return of any one player - even one as talented as Hafner - won't solve those woes on his own. But the slugger, who was in the midst of a remarkable comeback year, hitting .345/.409/.549 should add considerable clout to a middle-of-the-order that could use some.

To make room for Hafner, the team has once again optioned outfielder Travis Buck to the AAA. This will be Buck's second trip down. He's struggled offensively, posting an OPS of just .617, though he's played very strong defense in left.

Felipe Paulino OffTo A Surprising Start

2011-06-13T14:36:00.000-05:00

Unless you were a fan of the Royals or Rockies, the news that the Royals had traded setup man Robinson Tejeda to the Rockies for reliever Felipe Paulino probably fell off your radar. That's reasonable given that Tejeda has spent essentially the entirety of 2011 either ineffective or on the disabled list. Still, that the Royals were willing to part with someone who provided 2.1 WAR out of the bullpen the past two seasons came as a bit of a surprise to me. That they were willing to give him up for someone with a career 5.53 ERA perhaps was more surprising still.

Paulino however, was an extremely interesting acquisition. A live arm who has averaged 95.4mph with his fastball since reaching the Majors at 24 years old back in 2007 with the Astros, he pairs that exceptional heat with a very good slider, a curve and a change. Beyond the raw stuff, he's posted solid peripherals, with a career K rate of 8.00 and a GB rate just shy of 45%. However like many power pitchers, he's struggled with his command, walking 3.73 per nine innings. In all, that's a solid package of raw stuff and strong rate metrics.

Unfortunately for Paulino, it hadn't translated to the field.

That's likely the result of some of the worst luck a pitcher with 220+ inning under his belt could experience. With a career BABIP against of .338, and a LOB rate of just 63.7%, Paulino has been massively unlucky.

In this case, the Royals were likely hoping that by acquiring Paulino, they could be adding a potential impact arm at the cost of nothing more than a struggling reliever who had long since lost his role to youngsters Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Greg Holland, and Louis Coleman.

So far, so good.

While Paulino made his first appearance for the Royals following his acquisition out of the bullpen, he's since moved to the rotation, and thrived. In his four appearances for the team he's logged 21 innings, allowing 15 hits, and 4 walks while striking out 16. That 4-1 K/BB ratio, combined with his 60.1% ground ball rate since arriving in Kansas City has earned him a 1.29 ERA since joining the tea, and turned some heads.

To be clear, I don't expect Paulino to maintain the role he's on. He's been buoyed by some good luck and ground ball/walk rates that don't mesh with his career track record. But he is a talented arm, and has the ability to miss enough bats, while getting enough ground balls to be a capable member of a Major League rotation, or potentially a dominant member of a bullpen.

For a much maligned GM like Dayton Moore, who has made some absolutely bone-headed decisions during his tenure at the helm of the team, this move looks like a potentially very good one. Not because Paulino is likely to be a dominant pitcher who can maintain his current level of success, but simply because he did precisely what any good GM is supposed to do. He found an undervalued asset, and acquired it at a bargain price.

Well played.

Tepid Optimism for Alex Avila

2011-06-12T18:59:00.003-05:00

Alex Avila has been a more than pleasant surprise for the Detroit Tigers this season at catcher. After disappointing starts to the season from a number of Tigers, Alex Avila has done his best to keep the team afloat on offense. Through 204 plate appearances Avila has a .907 OPS with 9 home runs, 13 doubles, and even 3 triples. He currently has a .258 ISO and an absurd .389 wOBA both marks are first for qualified catchers by a mile (among unqualified catchers his ISO is second to Mike Napoli).

Needless to say, Avila has been one of, if not the top backstop in the MLB the first two months of the season. The question then becomes, can he keep it up? At first blush the answer would seem to be definitely not. This is the same guy coming off of a wOBA of .297 in his first full season and .112 ISO, numbers on the lower side even for a catcher. As a result, his improvement this season is well beyond any kind of reasonable expectation of improvement anybody could have had for him coming into this season.

Some of Avila’s peripheral stats have not shown any significant improvement. So far this season his K rate is 27% (K/AB) as opposed to 2010 when it was 24%, similarly his BB rate is 9.3% (BB/PA) as opposed to 2010 when it was 10.2%. Similarly Avila has almost an identical Line Drive rate this season. The one substantial difference this season for Avila is his ground ball and fly ball rates. This season he is hitting 34.3% GB and 44% FB as opposed to last season when he hit 43.5% GB and 35% FB. As we have seen generally ground balls help a players average while fly balls help a players power, unless of course a player hits a lot of home runs in which case the average actually will not suffer much from increased fly balls while power will increase. This season, Avila not only has hit more fly balls but has hit more of them out of the park with a 15% HR/FB rate as opposed to 10’ when he had a 9% HR/FB rate.

In 2010, Avila had a BABIP of .208, .101, and .696 for GB, FB and LD respectively. It should be noted that the FB and LD rates, both of which usually have very little differentiation among players, are unusually low. The mean rates would be in the range of .145 for FB and .725 for LD with a small standard deviation. As a result, as an initial matter it is possible Avila’s average last year was a bit flukey on the low end. Avila’s BABIP line this year is .255, .260, and .645 for GB, FB, and LD respectively. Obviously his GB and FB rates are pretty high and we can say almost definitely that his FB rate is not sustainable. However, he is likely to see his LD BABIP rise. Aside from BABIP the other noticeable increase is in Avila’s HR/FB rate, and in that case, we really do not have enough data on Avila in the majors to say what rate is probably most accurate. However a decent indicator is that thus far he has hit more home runs per plate appearance than he did in his best minor league season. While younger players often do discover power as they gain experience, Avila probably does not figure to continue such a notable increase in HR/FB. However, there is enough of a sample to conclude that it is possible Avila has become more of a FB hitter than he was last season and that his GB/FB rate might have shifted.

As a result, the best predication of Avila going forward would probably be to split the difference in HR/FB rate, and GB/FB rate while giving Avila credit for a LD rate during his better year and a FB rate closer to the league mean. So the final line is 21.5% LD rate with a .702 BABIP, 39% GB at .208, 39% FB at .145 with a 12% HR/FB rate. His line would look something like this assuming 450 AB.

450 x .73 = 329 AB

BA = (329 x .39 x .208 + 329 x .39 x .145 + 329 x .215 x .702 + 329 x .39 x .12)/450 = 110/450 = .244

HR = 329 x .39 x .12 = 15-16

As you can see assuming those numbers which are still fairly reasonable for Avila, his production suffers a steep drop. His final line would probably look something like .244/.332/.413 for a .745 OPS. That is a solid performance from a catcher but not exactly world beating.

The key to Avila’s continued production will be maintaining both a higher than expected FB rate and HR/FB rate. Avila’s average figures to decrease either way but there’s a big difference between 15 HR in 450 AB and something like 20+ HR in the same amount of AB.

Either way, Avila has too many positive trends to say he has not improved at all. So I am optimistic about Avila, but the remainder of the season will give a better indication of the degree to which Avila has improved.

H & M: A Fashionably Good Duo

2011-06-12T16:34:00.007-05:00

With the arrival of Mike Moustakas to the majors, Kansas City has both halves of their prized infield prospects up with the big club, the other being first baseman Eric Hosmer. While it is still way too soon to accurately conclude that either player will be a bona fide major league star, the initial returns certainly match the pedigree.

For Eric Hosmer, in a decent sample he has proven himself to be a fairly impressive rookie hitter. Currently, he boasts an .888 OPS in 156 plate appearances with the Royals. Impressive but not entirely surprising since Hosmer absolutely crushed minor league pitching over the last year and change, hitting well over .300 with great power.

In my opinion Hosmer was/is as close to a sure thing for quality major league production as you can get. After a slow start to his minor league career, Hosmer really took off after his corrective eye surgery. You can certainly look at Hosmer and see an athletic frame, decent speed, and a very appealing swing, but the story is really in his statistics. Hosmer had a decent K rate in his early minor league career, but it’s no coincidence that his success followed with a dramatic decrease in his strikeouts. His K rate went from about 23% K/AB all the way down to 12%; an absurd number for anybody let alone a power hitting 1b. Hosmer maintained an excellent rate of contact while belting over 40 doubles and 20 HR in his last full minor league season. As such, Hosmer is one of those rare prospects that combines very good power with excellent contact skills. Hosmer has struck out about 18% of the time so far in the majors (again using K/AB). Nobody should be all that surprised by the increase going from minor league pitching to the majors, but that rate is still amazing for a guy who features the kind of power (and future increased power potential) that Hosmer possesses. For some perspective, current star major league 1b such as Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera all feature K rates around 20% for their careers (although Cabrera has displayed a downward trend to about 16% in recent years).

Where Hosmer still falls slightly short of other AL 1b stars is in the area of walk rate and power. All three of the aforementioned 1b walk around 11% (BB/PA) for their careers (again Cabrera showing an increase to 13-16% recently). Similarly all three hitters maintain wOBA’s around .400 and ISO’s in the .250 range give or take. Hosmer has a walk rate of about 6.4% in the majors this year and was 7.1% in his last full year in the minors. Further, Hosmer’s ISO so far this season is only .166.

Hosmer’s K rate and minor league track record indicate that he is most definitely a 1b who can probably maintain a major league batting average in the .280+ range, maybe even .300+ ala his teammate Billy Butler. However, like Butler did early in his career, Hosmer does not yet walk enough to vault him immediately into an elite grouping of 1b hitters. Further, Hosmer, like Butler yet again, has not yet shown the kind of power (though ISO is still a long way from stabilizing yet) to put him in the elite category.

Before he was called up, I had stated that I thought Hosmer’s low end in the majors was that of his now teammate Billy Butler, a very good hitter, and that his ceiling might be as high as Miguel Cabrera from the left side, which would be absolutely fantastic for the Royals. The good news is, I think he’s already matched his low end as you can see by the similar numbers between Hosmer and Butler’s first few seasons.

The interesting thing now will be how he continues to develop. One would expect the walk rate and power to both increase, however that does not always happen. One or the other could stall out, in Butler’s case, to this point it has been the power that has not fully developed though he has managed to dramatically increase his walk rate. This is a bit counter intuitive because conventional thinking is that the walks are a bit less likely to increase dramatically than is power. In that sense, Butler is a bit of an oddball, but he himself is still young and could easily break out in that department as well, vaulting him close to Miguel Cabrera status. No matter which path Hosmer takes, I would at the very least expect some future development in both categories enough to push him close to an elite level. He is really not that far off already. This much is clear; the Royals have a fantastic new first baseman.

Projecting Mike Moustakas at this point is a bit tougher to do. However, similarly, there is a lot to like about “Moose”. The biggest standout in his game is the power. He put that on display in only his second game with the Royals, going deep for his first major league home run. There's no question Moustakas can really mash the ball to the tune of 36 home runs across two levels last season in the minors along with 41 doubles. In fact, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say Moustakas has more developed power at the moment than Hosmer. There are concerns about his ability to make consistent contact, however I am probably more optimistic than others. Usually, I do not find much to be concerned about for the contact rate of a prospect until they start to K more than 20% of the time in the minors. A big time power hitter like Moustakas could still feasibly strike out 25% of his AB in the majors and be a very effective player despite a lower batting average. That said, Moustakas has had a K rate well below 20% since his rookie year in the minor leagues and as such, I do not think making contact will be an enormous problem for him in the major leagues. For some perspective Evan Longoria’s minor league K rate was just below 20% K/AB.

Moustakas’s issues are really limited to walks and defense. In similar fashion to Hosmer, Moustakas has not walked at a high clip against minor league pitching, roughly 6% on BB/PA his last two full seasons in the minors. The development in the ability to draw walks can often be a slow moving process for major league players if it happens at all. Keeping with my Evan Longoria comparison, Longoria walked well over 2x as much as Moustakas in the minors. That plate discipline can manifest at the MLB level not only as a lower OBP but perhaps in a tougher time translating a K rate from the minors to the majors. Increased strike outs lead to a lower BA which leads to an even lower OBP. It can be a vicious cycle for a newly promoted minor leaguer. However, I still believe 25% K/AB is really still a worst case scenario for Moustakas because his contact rate to this point has been so good in the minors.

Moustakas’s defense has been graded as serviceable but not spectacular. However, that’s really not a concern so much as an indication he will never quite be an Evan Longoria or Ryan Zimmerman on the defensive side of the ball. Overall, it’s not enough of a concern regarding his positioning at 3b because he does not figure to move to corner outfield at any point.

Overall, I think some of the concerns regarding Moustakas are a bit overstated. Generally, specific problems such as lack of plate discipline will only be magnified at the major league level. For certain players, the difference between the majors and minors is enormous (think Brandon Wood). However, Moustakas is working from such a high bar of excellence in the minors with regard to his peripheral stats it is really hard to imagine him falling that far. I really think Moustakas low end is something like Adrian Beltre with more K’s and vastly inferior defense. Basically a middle to middle lower tier 3b at absolute worst. Best case scenario is probably David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman with inferior defense. Maybe Aaron Hill during his best season would be a good comparison due to the similar BB rates. Really there’s nobody at third who compares well with Moose so it will be interesting to see which path he will take as a player.

With two top prospects already here and many more very good prospects yet to arrive, the future is bright in Kansas City.

Phil Humber Continuing to Quietly Dominate

2011-05-31T17:02:00.000-05:00

"Despite being nothing special himself (there is a reason he's been placed on waivers by so many teams in such a short time frame) [Philip] Humber is an experienced Minor League veteran with at least some Major League experience who should be able to provide replacement level production. I have no doubt that he could, in a pinch, come in and provide the White Sox with a handful of 'acceptable' starts, giving the team perhaps 20-25 innings of 5.00 ERA ball."

While it's generally ill-advised to highlight your own foolish comments, I feel compelled to do so for the sake of fairness. Those were my words when I wrote about the White Sox claiming of Philip Humber this past off season. It certainly wasn't my most prescient moment.

When I wrote that, Humber was on his way to his fifth team in four years, and his third in less than three months. Since coming to the Twins in the Johan Santana trade in 2008, Humber had thrown a total of 42.1 innings in the Majors over three seasons, allowing 71 base runners (50H/21BB), against just 31 strikeouts. Those rate stats translate to a 1.69 WHIP, and 6.63K/4.49BB rates, numbers that seemed to match up nicely with his thoroughly unimpressive AAA stats.

At 29 years old, it was hardly a shock that no one seemed to think much of him. His stats didn't make you raise an eyebrow nor did his 90-91mph fastball light up the board. No, Philip Humber was who we thought he was.

Or so we though.

Instead of playing down to his previous level of performance, Humber has registered a season befitting of his former first round draft pick status, posting a 2.85 ERA through the first third of the season. What's more, he's only gotten better as the season has progressed -each of his last six starts have been of the "quality start" variety, and he's logged at least seven complete innings in five of those games.

So what are we to make of Humber, where did this come from, and more importantly, can it last?

The short answer to that last question is, no. No, he cannot maintain a 2.85 ERA, few pitchers can, and those who sport .210 BABIP marks definitely cannot. But there are other things about his performance in 2011 that he can carry forward. Primarily, an improved BB rate that, at 1.95/9IP is more than a full walk less than his career average of 2.99. If he can pump his K rate back into the mid-five range, with his typically solid (if unspectacular) ground ball rates, that could translate into the sort of sustainable performance you'd expect of a #4 or #5 starter.

In the meantime however, the White Sox - who've struggled to begin the season - and their fan base which is likely lamenting some of the teams off season decisions ought to be thankful for one move that is looking extremely good thus far.

Tigers Trade Scott Sizemore To Athletics

2011-05-27T15:35:00.064-05:00

I'll never quite understand why teams do this, and by "this," I mean trade position players with a chance to be productive regulars for mediocre bullpen arms. To be certain, not all teams make this mistake, but far too many GMs do, and now you can add the Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski to this list.

By trading Scott Sizemore, a promising bat at a historically offensively weak position for a middle-of-the-road left handed relief arm like that of David Purcey, the Tigers are taking a rather significant gamble. At 26 years old, Sizemore isn't particularly young, but he has consistently throttled Minor Leaguer pitching - though he has struggled in his sporadic Major League time. Purcey on the other hand is a 29 year old lefty who's only tangible strength is a somewhat above average strikeout rate (7.72/9IP). Beyond the K rate, he walks too many (4.50/9IP), and is an extreme fly ball pitcher (31.6%). He has a career 5.17 ERA against a 4.79 career xFIP.

To be clear, there is a chance that Sizemore, who owns a 28.6% strikeout rate in his limited time in the Majors is nothing more than a AAAA player who can crush AAA pitching (which he's done consistently the past two seasons). But there is also considerable upside that can be seen in all of that MiLB success and by choosing to jettison Sizemore now, after just 237 MLB plate appearances, the Tigers are taking the aforementioned risk without giving Sizemore a legitimate chance to prove himself.

If there is a silver lining to acquiring a left handed pitcher with a career 5.17 ERA, it's that as a left-handed specialist Purcey has had some success with a career .229 BAA. Whether you feel that acquiring a mediocre 6th/7th inning LOOGY for a promising young position player on the other hand will likely have far more to do with where you land on the "win now"/"win later" spectrum. But in reality, there is a good chance that Sizemore will outproduce Purcey on a WAR level not only in the future, but this year.

Juan Pierre: Unusual Left Fielder

2011-05-14T14:37:00.008-05:00

The curious case of Juan Pierre almost requires that I reflect on his value. Pierre leads the league this season in negative value for qualified batters according to fangraphs with a -1.1 WAR. During the 2010 season, he did fare better maintaining a positive WAR due to his defense and a wOBA just above replacement level. However, that level of production was still below average for a major league LF.

The real intrigue is why anybody would want Juan Pierre to play LF and be a lead-off hitter for their team. Now he has some value, he could be an ideal defensive or base running replacement player for many teams. He could even squeak by as a workable center fielder, though still pretty near replacement level, hitting at the bottom of somebody’s lineup. However, Pierre playing a power position and hitting lead-off is not what I would have expected when he was a trade target of the Chicago White Sox during the 2009 off season. I think the White Sox's front office has made many savvy acquisitions and decisions but actively pursuing Juan Pierre was a bit confusing to say the least.

The problem really is threefold: first, his OBP is not enough of a justification to bat him lead-off, second, his ability to steal bases is overstated and really not all that beneficial to his club, third, playing LF has a harmful effect on his value because the replacement level player is a better hitter than at CF.

First, Juan Pierre actually does have decent OBP skills. He finished with a .341 mark last season, which was towards the middle but still the bottom half for all qualified OF last season. However that mark was higher than the average OBP for all LF’s in baseball last season which was .337. Pierre’s on base skills are almost exclusively tied to his ability to hit for a high batting average. He has a poor career BB rate of 5.7% BB/PA. Although this season has seen him take a few more walks in a smaller sample, his batting average has also decreased to .248 from his .275 mark last season. The batting average decrease would not be as concerning if not for the fact that Pierre is 33 and showing a steadily decreasing ability to hit for average over the past few seasons.

If you simply believe that it is a lead-off hitter’s job to get on base and steal bases, you already have to be concerned by Pierre’s batting average trends. However, Pierre also has concerning stolen base trends. He only has a 74.6% success rate for his career. So far this season he has been caught stealing 8 times against only 6 successful steals. When it comes to stolen bases, a player generally needs to steal anywhere from 68-75% of bases successfully to just break even in runs created based on the value of an extra base to the cost of an out. Pierre has been flirting cost-benefit line of stolen bases for his whole career but so far, it seems he may finally be at the point where his attempts to steal hurt his team. Whatever the actual number needed for stolen base success, there is no doubt that a 42% success rate is hurting the White Sox.

Even under traditional views of batting lead-off (speed!!! and some OBP skills), Pierre does not appear to be an ideal candidate for the job. However more modern views on lineup theory suggest that the lead-off spot should be occupied by one of the team’s best three hitters with the highest OBP and/or lowest extra base power. While Pierre certainly is very good at getting on base and not hitting for power, his .264 wOBA this season indicates Pierre is the third worst hitter getting consistent at bats for the White Sox thus far, ahead of only Brent Morel and Alex Rios. Similarly, in 2010, while Pierre did put up a .312 wOBA that put him ahead of players like AJ Pierzynski, Mark Teahen, and Gordon Beckham, he was definitely not one of the team’s three best hitters. As a result, it is hard to justify Pierre’s inclusion at the top of the lineup where he will see a greater number of at bats than superior hitters hitting behind him.

In addition, Pierre’s position of LF generally harms his value as a productive everyday regular for the White Sox. While it is true that a good amount of Pierre’s 2.2 WAR from last season was generated in large part because his defense was substantially better than that of the average LF, it should be noted that UZR takes a while to stabilize to the point where it is reliable. Pierre’s career UZR/150 is 3.3 in LF while his 2010 UZR/150 was 12.4. As a result, some of that defensive superiority is probably overstated. Offensively, in 2010, Pierre had a .312 wOBA, which ranked 36^th among all LF’s with 300 PA or more and ahead of only 7 other players. Pierre’s career wOBA is only .322 and has been on a downward trend. Pierre would have fared more favorably as compared with center fielders. The average wOBA for a CF is approximately .016 higher than corner outfield. Further, the replacement level corner outfield hitter, approximately .300-.305 wOBA, is much closer to 2010 Pierre. So far in 2011 Pierre has a .264 wOBA, clearly not up to standards.

As a result, while Pierre’s performance last year was probably not good enough to warrant the lead-off position in the White Sox lineup, it probably was good enough to ward off challenges to his at bats from replacement players. However, there is not much question that your average replacement level corner outfielder can perform better than Pierre has so far this season and there is some concern that things will not get much better for him. As a result, the White Sox might want to consider trying some youth in his place as there downside risk is minimal. Pierre at peak performance was already too close to replacement level to warrant complete job security and now in his mid thirties, there really is not much reason to wait to see if he has permanently dropped below the region of acceptable productivity for a starting major league LF. Pierre still has value to the White Sox because of his speed and defense, but probably only as a bench player going forward.

Royals Place Bruce Chen on 15-Day DL

2011-05-11T10:57:00.000-05:00

After his last performance, a strong seven inning, one run effort against the Orioles, Bruce Chen has been placed on the disabled list due to a lat strain on his left side. The injury doesn't appear to be anything serious, but with plenty of depth in their rotation at AAA, the Royals made what I feel is the right decision to protect Chen.

That Chen is still in the rotation to protect at all however is something I find a little bit surprising. When he resigned I wrote that, "Chen is essentially the definition of a back-end junk-baller. With a fastball that averaged just 86.2 last year, he's not going to throw the ball by anyone, but he's got five pitches and he'll throw them all at you. That helps him keep hitters off balance, but doesn't keep him from being eminently hittable."

So of course as we head into mid-May Chen is working on a 3.59 ERA in 42.2 innings of work. Naturally. He's still working with the same smoke-and-mirrors stuff that led him to a 4.17 ERA in 2010, but his FIP marks continue to suggest that his success is nothing more than that. In fact, despite the decreased ERA, Chen's peripherals have actually gotten worse - not better after what was an underwhelming showing in 2010. His K rate has dropped by 1.23 points and he's done nothing to change his status as one of the most fly-ball prone pitchers in the league, inducing ground balls at just a 33.8% clip.

Despite the negativity that an observer such as myself has about the raw stuff and the combination of parts that leads to his whole, Chen has been remarkably consistent now over the past 183 innings with the Royals. How long that'll continue? Hard to say. But for a team that had a chance to run out a rotation that could've collapsed on itself, Chen has been a remarkably consistent and steady force.

In his place the team will rely on Vin Mazzaro who was one of the players acquired from the Athletics in this winters David DeJesus trade. Like Chen, Mazzaro is a thoroughly underwhelming pitcher when observed by his peripherals only, but also like Chen, he was surprisingly effective in 2010, posting a 4.27 ERA in 122 innings despite a 5.13 FIP.

I expect that he'll be expected to make at least two starts before Chen is ready to return. It'll be a big chance for Mazzaro to show the big league team that he has the stuff to succeed at the next level because he's going to start getting edged out quickly by the gathering wave of prospects preparing to inundate the Royals rotation.

Sizemore Growing Into Role as Everyday Player

2011-05-11T02:11:00.002-05:00

2010 was supposed to be Scott Sizemore's coming out party. The fates however, had other plans. During the off season, Sizemore broke his ankle, and though he was ready to play on opening day, he was nowhere near ready for the challenge of the Major Leagues. Instead of heading into the season, and the greatest challenge of his professional career with a full off season of preparation, he was going in cold.

For an accomplished MLB veteran, such a return would be easier to make. They have a better idea of what to expect, they're better acclimated to the stresses of a Major League season. Sizemore however was essentially running in blind. It sure showed. On offense Sizemore struggled to make contact, on defense he looked slow, and unsure of himself. He was sent down after his disappointing start but caught fire in AAA, earning a pair of callups that helped him build some confidence through the season.

"Fortunately last year I got a call up for about 8 or 9 days in July, and then I got called up again in September and I played pretty well at the end. It was just a matter of calming down and playing the game like I know I know how to."

A particularly strong September gave him a chance to end the season on a positive note and leave the Tigers coaching staff with a positive impression of his skills. Still, he headed into spring training this year facing an uphill battle. Will Rhymes, who had played well during his time with the team in 2010 had the inside track on the job and did nothing to lose it during the spring, hitting over .300 while playing his typical solid defense.

Sizemore played ok during the spring, but he was far from great. Rhymes on the other hand hit .300 and realistically the job was his to lose, and he did nothing to that end. That doesn't mean it wasn't hard on Sizemore though, "Of course, you can't say you're not disappointed when you don't make the team out of spring training. With that being said you can understand what they're thinking and they're point of view on the decision."

"[Leyland] said I didn't do anything wrong to be sent down or anything like that, he just said that Will had hit well enough - .300 over 150 at-bats - so they were going to give him a chance out of spring. You know, you can't really argue with that. You've just got to go down, get your work in, plug away, and hopefully get another chance to come up here and show what you can do."

Unfortunately for Rhymes, the season got off to a dreadful start and he was sent down after posting a .556 OPS in 81 plate appearances. Once again, Sizemore was ready and waiting, with a stunning .408 batting average serving as a shining beacon of that readiness. In explaining his hot start to 2011, Sizemore states, "I had time to work out this off season, I got a lot stronger in the off season. And of course there's the mental aspect, being ready to play, every at-bat, every pitch, not getting down on yourself. It was all a little overwhelming the first time through."

That preparedness has certainly paid early dividends in 2011 and he's sporting a robust .406 OBP so far this year, bolstered by a bevy of walks that have helped offset a still alarming strikeout ratio. Despite the strikeouts though, the OBP is ultimately what the Tigers coaching staff is looking for. Someone who can get on base in front of the middle of the order. So far, so good.

None of which means his strikeout rates shouldn't be of concern. If he can't limit the K rate to around 25%, the 'law of BABIP' means that he'll struggle to hit for a respectable average. When I asked about his alarming swing-and-miss rates, Sizemore had this to say;

"I think it's just - not timidness - but not being aggressive enough, not swinging early in the count sometimes. I'm a patient hitter, I'm not a guy that's going to be aggressive and try to hack away, I'm going to try and get my pitch and put a good swing on it. Sometimes I'll get a lot of walks because of that, sometimes I'll strikeout more because of that. And of course I had that streak where I had three strikeout, two strikeouts, two strikeouts - for maybe three games in a row. Sometimes you just don't get your pitches, sometimes the pitchers just get nasty on you. You can't do anything about it, they're painting on the black and mixing pitches well. So sometimes you just need to tip your caps and give the pitcher credit because they're pretty good out there too."

The point that Sizemore inadvertently makes here is a good one and worthy of at least a brief note. While people tend to notice and lament strikeouts, getting too caught up in them can be problematic. Any hitter needs to limit their strikeouts in order to post a respectable batting average, but provided their striking out because they're seeing a lot of pitches, and also drawing a lot of walks as a result, that's ok. As long as they're providing enough power, and getting on base, you can live with strikeouts.

Beyond the strikeouts, the one persistent issue that has dogged Sizemore throughout his professional career has been his defense. The simple truth is that not every player is blessed with the tools necessary to be a great defender. That's especially true in the infield where sheer instincts play such a vital role. You can teach a player footwork, you can try and improve their agility and quickness, but ultimately, the great ones just have a sort of intrinsic muscle memory that helps them.

That's probably something that Sizemore lacks, which isn't to say he isn't doing everything in his power to get better. During the off season he worked at his friends baseball academy, RBA West, in Richmond Virginia on his defense.

"He's there helping me with my hitting, hitting me ground balls. Trying to simplify things and get back to basics, be overall more solid defensively, and of course I'm still trying to do that. The thing that makes great defenders is making every play they should and that's what I'm striving for."

"Defense has always been, not my downfall, but a weakness in my game. I've always kind of been known as a hitter. I just continue to work at it, continue to evolve my game and take it to the next level. Raf [Rafael Belliard] our infield instructor is good about getting out there early with me and getting my reps in."

Sizemore is now 26. Not necessarily a seasoned veteran, but he's not a gun shy rookie anymore either, and he seems to have a much better grasp of where he at. He no longer seems overwhelmed by the moment, he's no longer timid on his surgically repaired ankle. Still, he'll need to prove himself now because the Tigers have proven they won't tolerate inadequacy from their youngsters for long if someone else is playing well in the Minors.

Corey Ettinger is a Senior Writer for Baseball Digest. He also provides extensive analysis of the American League Central Division at his own blog, AL Central In Focus. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @Coreyettinger for the latest updates, random thoughts and general tomfoolery.

Twins Roster Situation Getting Dire

2011-05-10T22:00:00.000-05:00

The injuries the Twins have suffered early on in the 2011 season have destroyed essentially any chance of competitiveness that they had. Currently the team is playing without it's #2, 3, 5, and 6 hitters. Their cleanup hitter is batting below the Mendoza line with just one home run. As a whole the team is averaging just over three runs per game. It's a legitimate offensive nightmare scenario.

In the past when the Twins suffered injuries, it seemed as though the team could pull from an endless well of well prepared players from their Minor League system and they would adequately fill in for their counterpart. This year however the depth and breadth of the injuries have simply overwhelmed the system.

To some extent, those that argue the team's management has made the situation worse are right. The team foolishly traded away top prospect Wilson Ramos who is now a blossoming star for the Nationals for reliever Matt Capps. They brought in Dusty Hughes while inexplicably choosing to part with Rob Delaney. In the infield, they made a poorly considered decision to move J.J. Hardy for a pair of mediocre (at-best) relief arms. Even the decision to trade Jose Morales, an out of options player was probably poorly timed. While the team couldn't have predicted Joe Mauer's injury, they didn't have to trade Morales in January, they could've just as easily have waited until March.

These weren't well planned moves that went astray - they were widely panned as poor decisions immediately from a broad swath of the blogosphere. It's just bad baseball sense to trade a top prospect or a quality MLB middle infielder for relievers. They're too easy to acquire via trade, waivers, or from within your own system to go giving away quality position players. Worse still, the relievers the Twins acquired range from expensive and over-rated (Capps) to just flat out not very good.

At the same time, there is no team in baseball that could've suffered this many injuries to so many key players and have stayed afloat. Any team, and any Minor League system (short of perhaps the Royals) would've caved in under the intense pressure being applied from above. But the Twins front office certainly exacerbated the issue and they don't deserve a pass for that.

If you make enough bad decisions in a row, you eventually pay for that, and not even the Twins - renowned for overcoming injuries and pulling no-name players from the Minors - are immune.

Now the team finds itself backed up against a little known but frightening wall. Believe it or not, there is a limit in Major League baseball to how many players any one team can have on the 15-day disabled list at a time. That limit is five. After that point, the team needs to move someone to the 60-day disabled list.

The Twins at this point have used all but two players on their 40-man roster - AA players Chris Parmalee and Joe Benson. Delmon Young, Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Jim Thome, and Jason Repko are all currently on the 15-day DL. Trevor Plouffe, who was called up to cover for the poor play of the other Twins middle infielders suffered a minor hamstring strain, but it may still force him to the DL.

Thankfully to say, Young is expected back by Friday, and Thome and Repko should follow shortly.In the meantime, the team is left with no legitimate course of action. Calling up Parmalee or Benson would only be done in a desperate situation despite the fact that both are playing well in AA.

The only realistic flexibility the team currently has would involve outrighting AAA catcher Steve Holm, or pitcher Eric Hacker to free up a 40-man spot - I'm assuming they aren't prepared to give up on Deolis Guerra just yet.

Outside of that the team is left with little choice but to wait. To hope that players get healthy sooner than later and that no one else gets hurt. Though at this point it surely feels to most Twins fans like more of an eventuality than reasonable hope.

In the meantime Twins manager Ron Gardenhire - who said of Plouffe's recent injury "the day to day stuff isn't helping me, I need a decision..." - will continue to run out a threadbare lineup filled with AAA players who, though talented, aren't realistically prepared for Major League competition yet. The reasons why this is happening though have as much to do with bad luck as bad management and it's something the Twins will need to consider this off season.

Jared Goedert Returns

2011-05-10T21:47:00.000-05:00

When I initially heard that Indians prospect Jared Goedert was going to have to open the season on the disabled list to open the seasons, I was probably more disappointed than most. After suffering through a labrum injury that significantly set his career back in 2008, he finally looked as though he had rediscovered his swing in 2010, and 2011 offered him a chance for his first MLB promotion.

Then he had to be sent to the disabled list due to an oblique injury.

Obliques are tough to deal with and can be one of those injuries that linger if they aren't given plenty of time to heal. The very fact that they are used in such a violent way every time a hitter swings makes them highly susceptible to re-injury. For Goedert, who at 26 isn't getting any younger, but has shown refined skills in the upper levels of the Minors, the injury could keep him from being at full strength at a time when he desperately needs to be.

While Goedert was away, Indians top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall has been hitting well in AAA, posting a .827 OPS. His only real weakness being that as a left handed hitter he's struggled to hit lefties at that level, post a .189/.262/.324 triple slash in 37 at-bats.

Of course, the simple truth is that it's unlikely Goedert will ever overtake Chisenhall. He's simply not as talented a player on either side of the ball, but with his window to win the job slammed shut by the triple hammer of his own injury, Jack Hannahan's solid play, and the presence of Chisenhall. At this point his most likely route to the Majors would be as an injury replacement or as a right handed bat off the bench and backup corner infielder.

Unfortunate because in reality, he's a talented player with the raw tools and refined skills to be a serviceable Major Leaguer for someone.

Indians Designate Jeanmar Gomez

2011-05-10T11:45:00.000-05:00

With Carlos Carrasco nearing his return, the Indians decided to get a jump on the move by designating Jeanmar Gomez, who made two starts in his absence. Gomez pitched admirably in Carrasco's absence but in the end he simply isn't as talented as Alex White who will stay in the Indians rotation for the foreseeable future after turning in a pair of solid starts.

Gomez will head to AAA Columbus where he'll remain a prime candidate for a call up should the team need another arm. Given his experience in both the rotation and in relief, he provides the team with important flexibility.