Following the 2007 season, the White Sox, needing help in their bullpen took the rather extraordinary step of extending a four year nineteen million dollar contract to relief pitcher Scott Linebrink. Despite having a bit of a down year in 2007, the White Sox were undeterred and instead invested in Linebrink's history of strong performances. Over the preceding four seasons, Linebrink put up some very strong rate stats: 8.0K/9 - 2.8BB/9 - 1.0HR/9 to go with workhorse numbers from a reliever as he racked up over 300IP in those four years. But perhaps the White Sox overlooked something important in that HR rate however, because as someone with GB rates consistently in the mid 30s, Linebrink was a heavily fly ball prone pitcher.
After spending so much time pitching in the hitters hell that is Petco Park, the move to US Cellular has proven brutal and Linebrink's home run numbers sky rocketed. It is in that regard alone where Linebrink had seen significant decline as his HR rate nearly doubled from one park to the next. The propensity for the long-ball made Linebrink a questionable late-inning option for White Sox and a favorite for fans angst. That strikes me as unfortunate, because Linebrink, for his part, never did anything differently.
In the end however, it was circumstances largely beyond Linebrink's control that led to his trade. Chiefly, the White Sox needed payroll flexibility to resign Paul Konerko. The Braves were ready and waiting and they may have made a gem of a trade because in picking up Linebrink's strong strikeout and walk rates, they lost only middling prospect Kyle Cofield who will open 2011 as a 24 year old in AA with little success at any level of the minor leagues.
Let's be clear, while Linebrink struggled at The Cell in giving up home runs, his peripherals suggested he was still a perfectly capable reliever, especially in a 7th inning role and even in a spot setup role. This was a pure salary dump, one where the Sox were giving up a solid player, yet still needed to finance 3m of his 2011 salary. Let that be a cautionary tale to those who would be willing to sign middle relievers to long-term deals.
Even the best middle relievers - all relievers actually, closers included - are replaceable. That's a result of the fact that they pitch relatively few innings and because finding capable options can be done quite easily either internally, or right off the free agent scrap heap. The teams that realize this and eschew giving out those long-term deals are the ones who will ultimately not find themselves in the position of needing to finance the departure of a solid player like the White Sox just needed to do.
Showing posts with label Paul Konerko. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Konerko. Show all posts
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Friday, December 10, 2010
White Sox Bring Back A.J. Pierzynski
After six seasons of his patented instigation antics behind the plate for the White Sox, A.J. Pierzynski found himself as a free agent for the first time since the end of the 2004 season. To make matter worse, he was coming off his worst offensive performance of the millennium (hey, it's fun to say!) after posting an OPS of just .688. Thankfully for A.J., the crop of free agent catchers wasn't overwhelmingly attractive, perhaps being headlined by the defensively challenged John Buck. Once he was signed away by the Marlins early on, there was little else behind him.
Re-enter Kenny Williams.
With his lone remaining catcher under contract being the light-hitting, defensive minded Ramon Castro, and his best minor league option, Tyler Flowers, struggling at AAA with his plate discipline and defense, Williams made the bold move of bringing Pierzynski back on a back-loaded two-year contract that would prove to be the final domino that remained to fall prior to Williams being able to make his push to re-sign long-time first baseman Paul Konerko.
As with many free-agent signings, this one, at least on it's face, appears to be reasonable. Pierzynski has been worth 2.4 and 1.8 WAR the past two seasons - and at an average of of 4m per season, should easily justify his contract.
But as I highlighted in my review of the Victor Martinez signing by Detroit earlier, catchers have shown a propensity to drop off offensively earlier than their counterparts who play other, less physically demanding positions. That's likely a result of the wear and tear on a players knees and back that a catcher must deal with. Irregardless, it's a fact of life for most players. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the seemingly ageless Jorge Posada who, despite a massive decline in defense the past four seasons, has remained a very solid contributor on offense. But the rare case of an ageless Posada shouldn't cloud our judgement of the manner in which the position as a whole has aged throughout the years, signing Pierzynki - who has just one season with an OPS over .730 in the past four years - is a risk.
Thankfully to say, the risks are at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that the deal is just for two years and rarely has a team been done-in by such a short-term deal. And lets be clear, the White Sox aren't going to suffer significantly even if Pierzynski continues to hit as poorly as he did last year.
Rather, my concerns on this signing are rather nuanced. But that doesn't make them any less relevant.
First of all, I question the need to go to two years. How many other teams were in on the bidding? It's always tough to say, but from reports, the only team that seemed to have clear interest was the Blue Jays (whom the aforementioned Buck was departing). But when we look at the Jays, we see that they have a solid MLB-ready prospect in J.P. Arencibia and another in Travis D'Arnaud who is probably only one or two years off.
Beyond the Blue Jays, there are very few teams with an obvious need at the position (the Red Sox, Dodgers, and maybe the Mariners stand/stood out) and even then, the number of relatively comparable players seems to outstrip demand. Indeed, the Mariners just signed former White Sox catcher Miguel Olivo - who is two years younger than Pierzynski, who has been both a better offensive player the past two years, and a much better defender throughout his career - for a million dollars less.
Was signing Pierzynski to a two year deal really necessary? Doubtful.
Furthermore, was Pierzynski really the best available option? As the signing of Olivo points out, probably not. I question whether he's even better than the man who will be backing him up. Let's be certain, Castro is probably not quite the caliber of offensive player that Pierzynski is, but he's not particularly worse and he's almost certainly a somewhat better defensive option as baserunners have stolen on Pierzysnki with near impunity the past three years, swiping 270 total bases at a 78% success rate.
Of course, there are other factors to consider. Pierzynski is a tenured member of the White Sox, a veteran of their World Series run (a "proven winner"), and a legitimate warrior behind the plate as he's donned the tools of ignorance more times than any catcher in baseball the past three seasons. He's also a major pain-in-the-ass for the opposing teams hitters.
Will the signing of AJ likely prove worthwhile? Probably. After all, even while experiencing his worst offensive year of this millennium (yup, still fun to say) he was worth 1.8 WAR. More than enough to justify an average yearly salary of 4m. And perhaps that's all that should matter. But for me, the little things matter. And there are little things about this deal that I just don't like.
I think the Sox could've done better. And could've done better for less.
Re-enter Kenny Williams.
With his lone remaining catcher under contract being the light-hitting, defensive minded Ramon Castro, and his best minor league option, Tyler Flowers, struggling at AAA with his plate discipline and defense, Williams made the bold move of bringing Pierzynski back on a back-loaded two-year contract that would prove to be the final domino that remained to fall prior to Williams being able to make his push to re-sign long-time first baseman Paul Konerko.
As with many free-agent signings, this one, at least on it's face, appears to be reasonable. Pierzynski has been worth 2.4 and 1.8 WAR the past two seasons - and at an average of of 4m per season, should easily justify his contract.
But as I highlighted in my review of the Victor Martinez signing by Detroit earlier, catchers have shown a propensity to drop off offensively earlier than their counterparts who play other, less physically demanding positions. That's likely a result of the wear and tear on a players knees and back that a catcher must deal with. Irregardless, it's a fact of life for most players. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the seemingly ageless Jorge Posada who, despite a massive decline in defense the past four seasons, has remained a very solid contributor on offense. But the rare case of an ageless Posada shouldn't cloud our judgement of the manner in which the position as a whole has aged throughout the years, signing Pierzynki - who has just one season with an OPS over .730 in the past four years - is a risk.
Thankfully to say, the risks are at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that the deal is just for two years and rarely has a team been done-in by such a short-term deal. And lets be clear, the White Sox aren't going to suffer significantly even if Pierzynski continues to hit as poorly as he did last year.
Rather, my concerns on this signing are rather nuanced. But that doesn't make them any less relevant.
First of all, I question the need to go to two years. How many other teams were in on the bidding? It's always tough to say, but from reports, the only team that seemed to have clear interest was the Blue Jays (whom the aforementioned Buck was departing). But when we look at the Jays, we see that they have a solid MLB-ready prospect in J.P. Arencibia and another in Travis D'Arnaud who is probably only one or two years off.
Beyond the Blue Jays, there are very few teams with an obvious need at the position (the Red Sox, Dodgers, and maybe the Mariners stand/stood out) and even then, the number of relatively comparable players seems to outstrip demand. Indeed, the Mariners just signed former White Sox catcher Miguel Olivo - who is two years younger than Pierzynski, who has been both a better offensive player the past two years, and a much better defender throughout his career - for a million dollars less.
Was signing Pierzynski to a two year deal really necessary? Doubtful.
Furthermore, was Pierzynski really the best available option? As the signing of Olivo points out, probably not. I question whether he's even better than the man who will be backing him up. Let's be certain, Castro is probably not quite the caliber of offensive player that Pierzynski is, but he's not particularly worse and he's almost certainly a somewhat better defensive option as baserunners have stolen on Pierzysnki with near impunity the past three years, swiping 270 total bases at a 78% success rate.
Of course, there are other factors to consider. Pierzynski is a tenured member of the White Sox, a veteran of their World Series run (a "proven winner"), and a legitimate warrior behind the plate as he's donned the tools of ignorance more times than any catcher in baseball the past three seasons. He's also a major pain-in-the-ass for the opposing teams hitters.
Will the signing of AJ likely prove worthwhile? Probably. After all, even while experiencing his worst offensive year of this millennium (yup, still fun to say) he was worth 1.8 WAR. More than enough to justify an average yearly salary of 4m. And perhaps that's all that should matter. But for me, the little things matter. And there are little things about this deal that I just don't like.
I think the Sox could've done better. And could've done better for less.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
White Sox Bring Back Paul Konerko
It had been apparent throughout the off season that the White Sox wanted to retain their free agent first baseman Paul Konerko. General Manager Kenny Williams wasn't shy about this, nor was team Owner and President Jerry Reinsdorf, with whom Konerko is said to share a very good relationship. Even so, everyone knew that payroll was going to be tight and that the team had other holes to fill. But today, with the other holes having been filled - notably at DH with the acquisition of Adam Dunn - the Sox resigned Konerko.
Good relationship with management and ownership aside, this wasn't an easy sign and Kenny himself said that this nearly didn't happen. Williams has put his club in a tough fiscal position with a number of expensive contracts on the books for a lot of questionable players, be it Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Mark Teahan, or until recently, Scott Linebrink. Even with back-loading the contracts recently given out to Dunn and AJ Pierzynski, non-tendering long-time closer Bobby Jenks, and trading off 2m of Linebrink's 2011 salary to the Braves - my payroll estimate still put the Sox at 112.2m - already a team record. So to bring back Konerko the team needed some help from ownership, and they obliged in the form of a three year, $37.5m deal that will pay Konerko 12m in 2011 and 2012, and 13.5m in 2013.
In Konerko, the White Sox have signed more than just a very good hitter, they secured a player who should wind up in their teams Hall-of-Fame after spending the past 11 seasons in white and black. Aside from that however, this is a risky signing. The Sox are now committed for the next three seasons to a player in Dunn who should be kept as far away from a defensive position as possible, and another in Konerko who has generally ranked around league average at first, but whom all three of the major advanced defensive metrics rated his 2010 very poorly. His +/- was -17, his defensive runs saved (DRS) was -18, and his UZR/150 was -14.7.
It's perfectly possible that this was an aberration - defensive metrics can be hit-and-miss sometimes - but it's equally possible that Konerko has begun that defensive slide that all players eventually do. Given that he was 34 last year, that would hardly be surprising. If so, the White Sox will be carrying two players who are both better suited for DH roles, and they'll be ding so for the next three years. That's not a particularly heart-warming prospect.
It's also unlikely that Konerko's offense of 2010 will be replicated. That's partly because he's past his prime, and partly because, well, he'd never been THAT good before. If Konerko hasn't found the fountain of youth as I expect, it's far more likely that he'll perform closer to his 2009 and 2007 seasons where he posted OPS marks of .841 and .842. If we assume that his defensive decline is a fluke and he continues to perform offensively at past levels, lets say an .850 OPS, that would make Konerko a consistent 2.5 WAR sort of player.
Of course, that assumes a lot of things that are, in general, really difficult to project for an aging player. That said, we have a lot of history to look at to suggest that Konerko should be capable, at least offensively, of providing consistent production for the life of his deal. So for 37.5m dollars, the White Sox have not only locked up a solid everyday bat, they've locked up someone who, along with starter Mark Buehrle, has been the face of the Franchise for the past decade. And yes (as much as it pains me to admit it), there is some value in that which can't be measured purely by a players production statistics.
Kenny Williams still has some work to do - namely, trying to figure out who the four guys in his bullpen not named Matt Thornton and Sergio Santos are going to be. But, with some considerable help from ownership, he's accomplished his biggest goal - fortifying his lineup and bringing back a fan favorite and White Sox icon.
Good relationship with management and ownership aside, this wasn't an easy sign and Kenny himself said that this nearly didn't happen. Williams has put his club in a tough fiscal position with a number of expensive contracts on the books for a lot of questionable players, be it Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Mark Teahan, or until recently, Scott Linebrink. Even with back-loading the contracts recently given out to Dunn and AJ Pierzynski, non-tendering long-time closer Bobby Jenks, and trading off 2m of Linebrink's 2011 salary to the Braves - my payroll estimate still put the Sox at 112.2m - already a team record. So to bring back Konerko the team needed some help from ownership, and they obliged in the form of a three year, $37.5m deal that will pay Konerko 12m in 2011 and 2012, and 13.5m in 2013.
In Konerko, the White Sox have signed more than just a very good hitter, they secured a player who should wind up in their teams Hall-of-Fame after spending the past 11 seasons in white and black. Aside from that however, this is a risky signing. The Sox are now committed for the next three seasons to a player in Dunn who should be kept as far away from a defensive position as possible, and another in Konerko who has generally ranked around league average at first, but whom all three of the major advanced defensive metrics rated his 2010 very poorly. His +/- was -17, his defensive runs saved (DRS) was -18, and his UZR/150 was -14.7.
It's perfectly possible that this was an aberration - defensive metrics can be hit-and-miss sometimes - but it's equally possible that Konerko has begun that defensive slide that all players eventually do. Given that he was 34 last year, that would hardly be surprising. If so, the White Sox will be carrying two players who are both better suited for DH roles, and they'll be ding so for the next three years. That's not a particularly heart-warming prospect.
It's also unlikely that Konerko's offense of 2010 will be replicated. That's partly because he's past his prime, and partly because, well, he'd never been THAT good before. If Konerko hasn't found the fountain of youth as I expect, it's far more likely that he'll perform closer to his 2009 and 2007 seasons where he posted OPS marks of .841 and .842. If we assume that his defensive decline is a fluke and he continues to perform offensively at past levels, lets say an .850 OPS, that would make Konerko a consistent 2.5 WAR sort of player.
Of course, that assumes a lot of things that are, in general, really difficult to project for an aging player. That said, we have a lot of history to look at to suggest that Konerko should be capable, at least offensively, of providing consistent production for the life of his deal. So for 37.5m dollars, the White Sox have not only locked up a solid everyday bat, they've locked up someone who, along with starter Mark Buehrle, has been the face of the Franchise for the past decade. And yes (as much as it pains me to admit it), there is some value in that which can't be measured purely by a players production statistics.
Kenny Williams still has some work to do - namely, trying to figure out who the four guys in his bullpen not named Matt Thornton and Sergio Santos are going to be. But, with some considerable help from ownership, he's accomplished his biggest goal - fortifying his lineup and bringing back a fan favorite and White Sox icon.
Monday, December 6, 2010
White Sox Sign Adam Dunn
Kenny Williams strikes again. It has been common knowledge around the league that the White Sox have been in pursuit of Adam Dunn for some time and Kenny finally got his man. Williams has a way of making deals appear virtually out of thin air and this is no exception. While we all knew that Williams and the White Sox tried - and failed - to swing a deal with the Nationals for the slugger at the trade deadline last year, there had been little to no news on that front so far this off season. So when the news came that a deal was in place it surprised me a bit. Not because I didn't consider the possibility of Dunn coming to the Sox, but rather because it happened so fast.
When I ran down the payroll situation of the White Sox at the outset of this years off season, I knew Williams was going to have his hands full trying to improve his club enough to leapfrog the Twins while having little money to work. With and some tough positions to fill, even with the expected non-tendering of closer Bobby Jenks, money was still going to be tight. Thankfully, the deep pockets of owner Jerry Reinsdorf appear to be giving Williams a little extra wiggle room.
Payroll constraints not withstanding, one area that seemed almost certain to be addressed was designated hitter, where the White Sox received horrible production after a failed experiment at signing light hitting position players to man a position where hitting is the only job.
By signing Dunn to a 4 year 56 million dollar deal the White Sox have ensured that they'll have one of the games pre-eminent power hitters in the middle of their lineup for years to come. Though, much like with the signing of Victor Martinez in Detroit, they'll be getting Dunn for the tail end of his prime and the beginning of his decline phase as he'll be 32 in 2011. Of course, all players age differently and there is nothing to say that Dunn wont produce the best numbers of his career while in Chicago. Dunn could provide a fantastic complement to the right handed Paul Konerko, should the White be able to bring him back (more on that later) - or anchor a lineup all on his own should a deal not be able to be worked out.
One of the most prolific home run hitters in the game today - and one of it's most prolific strikeout artists (32.8% for his career!) - Dunn is the definition of a all-or-nothing swinger. Of his 145 hits last year, 76 went for extra bases. Dunn is going to swing and miss a lot, that's just a fact of life, but when he doesn't miss, he has a tendency to hit the ball very, very hard. Of course, it's not just Dunn's power that makes him valuable, he's also one of the games best at taking a walk (I guess the thought of a strike being hit 450 feet will entice guys to nibble a bit more than normal). His power/on-base combination have made him one of the games best, and most consistent offensive forces as he has posted an OPS of .890 or better in six of the past seven seasons.
Of course, we also know that Dunn has his faults. There are the strikeouts of course, but there is plenty of debate as to just how much worse a strikeout is than another sort of out - or if it's worse at all. So I'll leave the relevance of that particular aspect of his game to your own judgment. Because of the strikeouts, Dunn isn't going to hit for average, but thankfully to say, he takes all those walks which still allows him to be an on-base machine. What isn't debatable is the fact that playing Dunn at any position is a serious hazard to health of your pitchers ERA's. After five straight seasons with a mind-boggling -23 UZR/150 (AT LEAST!!!) or worse at first base, Dunn showed some improvement during the past year, but it's likely that's just noise. And, in left field he's really no better.
He's so bad in fact that playing him in the field regularly forces him to lose a massive amount of his value. In 2009, for instance, despite posting a .928 OPS (good for a 4.1 oWAR according to Baseball-reference) was worth a -3.2 dWAR. So in the end, his value - at least according to WAR, was just barely above average. While that's an extreme example (his dWAR has never approached those numbers again) he's fairly consistently cost his team significantly on the field.
Thankfully to say, the White Sox play in the American League where they can bury his glove at DH. Initially Dunn had been hesitant to accept a role with a team that would use him as a designated hitter (probably because it lowers a players value as a free agent by a good amount), but it appears he's come around. If the White Sox can avoid deploying Dunn in their defensive rotation as much as possible, it's likely that he'll be worth a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR for at least the first 2-3 years of his contract. If so, this could be a brilliant deal for the White Sox. But if Ozzie Guillen should, for some reason, insist on playing Dunn in the field, this could just as easily become a disaster.
If we assume that Dunn can be worth at least 3.0 WAR per year, an easily attainable goal provided good health and minimal time playing defense, he'd be worth a minimum of around 51m. That's close enough to even money for a free agent signing for it to be considered a success. And really, 3.0 WAR as a DH is probably his downside. If he can produce the way he has throughout his career he should easily be worth more. At the likely rate of around 4.0 WAR, he'll be worth 68m - a number that would easily eclipse what the White Sox will be paying him.
If properly utilized, Dunn should provide a legitimate middle-of-the-order run-producing bat for the next four years who can help mash the White Sox back to the post season in homer-friendly US Cellular. He could also prove to be something even more rare - a free agent steal.
When I ran down the payroll situation of the White Sox at the outset of this years off season, I knew Williams was going to have his hands full trying to improve his club enough to leapfrog the Twins while having little money to work. With and some tough positions to fill, even with the expected non-tendering of closer Bobby Jenks, money was still going to be tight. Thankfully, the deep pockets of owner Jerry Reinsdorf appear to be giving Williams a little extra wiggle room.
Payroll constraints not withstanding, one area that seemed almost certain to be addressed was designated hitter, where the White Sox received horrible production after a failed experiment at signing light hitting position players to man a position where hitting is the only job.
By signing Dunn to a 4 year 56 million dollar deal the White Sox have ensured that they'll have one of the games pre-eminent power hitters in the middle of their lineup for years to come. Though, much like with the signing of Victor Martinez in Detroit, they'll be getting Dunn for the tail end of his prime and the beginning of his decline phase as he'll be 32 in 2011. Of course, all players age differently and there is nothing to say that Dunn wont produce the best numbers of his career while in Chicago. Dunn could provide a fantastic complement to the right handed Paul Konerko, should the White be able to bring him back (more on that later) - or anchor a lineup all on his own should a deal not be able to be worked out.
One of the most prolific home run hitters in the game today - and one of it's most prolific strikeout artists (32.8% for his career!) - Dunn is the definition of a all-or-nothing swinger. Of his 145 hits last year, 76 went for extra bases. Dunn is going to swing and miss a lot, that's just a fact of life, but when he doesn't miss, he has a tendency to hit the ball very, very hard. Of course, it's not just Dunn's power that makes him valuable, he's also one of the games best at taking a walk (I guess the thought of a strike being hit 450 feet will entice guys to nibble a bit more than normal). His power/on-base combination have made him one of the games best, and most consistent offensive forces as he has posted an OPS of .890 or better in six of the past seven seasons.
Of course, we also know that Dunn has his faults. There are the strikeouts of course, but there is plenty of debate as to just how much worse a strikeout is than another sort of out - or if it's worse at all. So I'll leave the relevance of that particular aspect of his game to your own judgment. Because of the strikeouts, Dunn isn't going to hit for average, but thankfully to say, he takes all those walks which still allows him to be an on-base machine. What isn't debatable is the fact that playing Dunn at any position is a serious hazard to health of your pitchers ERA's. After five straight seasons with a mind-boggling -23 UZR/150 (AT LEAST!!!) or worse at first base, Dunn showed some improvement during the past year, but it's likely that's just noise. And, in left field he's really no better.
He's so bad in fact that playing him in the field regularly forces him to lose a massive amount of his value. In 2009, for instance, despite posting a .928 OPS (good for a 4.1 oWAR according to Baseball-reference) was worth a -3.2 dWAR. So in the end, his value - at least according to WAR, was just barely above average. While that's an extreme example (his dWAR has never approached those numbers again) he's fairly consistently cost his team significantly on the field.
Thankfully to say, the White Sox play in the American League where they can bury his glove at DH. Initially Dunn had been hesitant to accept a role with a team that would use him as a designated hitter (probably because it lowers a players value as a free agent by a good amount), but it appears he's come around. If the White Sox can avoid deploying Dunn in their defensive rotation as much as possible, it's likely that he'll be worth a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR for at least the first 2-3 years of his contract. If so, this could be a brilliant deal for the White Sox. But if Ozzie Guillen should, for some reason, insist on playing Dunn in the field, this could just as easily become a disaster.
If we assume that Dunn can be worth at least 3.0 WAR per year, an easily attainable goal provided good health and minimal time playing defense, he'd be worth a minimum of around 51m. That's close enough to even money for a free agent signing for it to be considered a success. And really, 3.0 WAR as a DH is probably his downside. If he can produce the way he has throughout his career he should easily be worth more. At the likely rate of around 4.0 WAR, he'll be worth 68m - a number that would easily eclipse what the White Sox will be paying him.
If properly utilized, Dunn should provide a legitimate middle-of-the-order run-producing bat for the next four years who can help mash the White Sox back to the post season in homer-friendly US Cellular. He could also prove to be something even more rare - a free agent steal.
Monday, April 12, 2010
White Sox Roundup: Week One
The White Sox opened their season with a pair of three game set against divisional foes Cleveland and Minnesota, they lost both series two games to one. The common theme was a lack of offense, which was the big concern coming into the season. People knew the White Sox would pitch with a great staff and a deep and talented bullpen, but for a team the struggled to score runs in 2009, how would they cope with the loss of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye, two players who had long been fixtures in the middle of the White Sox order.
To be succinct, the answer in 'not well.' At least not on the face of it. But the truth as it always seems to be is somewhat more complex. Yes, the White Sox did struggle to score just 21 runs in those six games (3.5R/G) but they also had miserable luck, hitting just .203 with a BABIP of just .200. Clearly that won't always be the case, and as that luck turns - and it always does - the average will rise and the brand of baseball Manager Ozzie Guillen wants to see; high average, speed on the bases, situation hitting... should begin to work out. The two players who did hit, are precisely the guys you'd expect, Paul Konerko (1.229) and Carlos Quentin (1.150). How Quentin fares over the course of the season coming back from injury, and whether or not he can hold up for the whole season, will be vital to the teams success.
On the bump, the White Sox pitching fared every bit as well as the fans could've hoped, allowing just 20 runs (19 earned) in the six contests, for a team ERA of 2.95. Leading the way were the starters with an ERA of just 2.77 with Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Freddy Garcia all pitched brilliantly.
The offense for the White Sox is going to come around, and as long as their brilliant pitching staff can stay healthy, this is a team that will be a formidable challenge for anyone in baseball as the season wears on.
To be succinct, the answer in 'not well.' At least not on the face of it. But the truth as it always seems to be is somewhat more complex. Yes, the White Sox did struggle to score just 21 runs in those six games (3.5R/G) but they also had miserable luck, hitting just .203 with a BABIP of just .200. Clearly that won't always be the case, and as that luck turns - and it always does - the average will rise and the brand of baseball Manager Ozzie Guillen wants to see; high average, speed on the bases, situation hitting... should begin to work out. The two players who did hit, are precisely the guys you'd expect, Paul Konerko (1.229) and Carlos Quentin (1.150). How Quentin fares over the course of the season coming back from injury, and whether or not he can hold up for the whole season, will be vital to the teams success.
On the bump, the White Sox pitching fared every bit as well as the fans could've hoped, allowing just 20 runs (19 earned) in the six contests, for a team ERA of 2.95. Leading the way were the starters with an ERA of just 2.77 with Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Freddy Garcia all pitched brilliantly.
The offense for the White Sox is going to come around, and as long as their brilliant pitching staff can stay healthy, this is a team that will be a formidable challenge for anyone in baseball as the season wears on.
Monday, April 5, 2010
What should the White Sox do about Paul Konerko?
One of the biggest challenges that will face White Sox GM Kenny Williams this off season will be what exactly to do about the teams first base situation. The White Sox have had the luxury of riding the powerful right handed bat of Paul Konerko since acquiring him in 1999 for center fielder Mike Cameron. Since coming to Chiacgo, Konerko has been a consistent offensive force, powering the team to multiple playoff births and helping to secure the World Series for the franchise in 2005.
Konerko however, is no spring chicken. By the time the 2011 season rolls around Konerko will be 35. One of the main tenets of managing a small-mid payroll team is that teams need to be very careful when handing money out to aging veterans. The team must also consider the potential side effects of letting a fan favorite and team captain leave. I'm not much for intangibles, but Konerko has been the heart and soul of the franchise for a long time and letting him walk would undeniably change the dynamic inside the clubhouse.
On a pure statistical level, Konerko hasn't been an elite hitter since 2006, and given his age it's unlikely he will be again. In 2009 the MLB average OPS for first basemen was .845 - Konerko posted a .841 mark - his highest since '06, making him just slightly below average offensively. According to UZR he's been right around league average defensively his entire career, posting a +3.2 mark last year. In terms of WAR, he's posted his best mark of the past three season last year with a +2.7. Over the past three seasons however he's averaged just +1.93 wins above replacement.
On the free agent market, a player is worth about 4.5m per win above average. Using that rough estimate as a guideline, Konerko would typically be worth ~8-10m per season on the free agent market. However as we've seen the past couple years, the market for aging corner infielders/outfielders has been greatly depressed. Teams, it would seem, are coming to realize the relative ease with which these players can be replaced. As said earlier of course, the White Sox stand to lose a bit more than just Konerko's production.
With all the factors; offense, defense, intangibles, and corner infielder market value on the table, what would a fair offer be? I don't think it would be the 8-10m per annum our basic WAR extrapolation would suggest. That's primarily because there will be perhaps a half-dozen capable first basemen on the market next year. Just running down the list of guys who are probably worthy of starting jobs (in no particular order);
Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and of course, Konerko. Technically Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman could be free agents as well, but I'd imagine their respective teams will be exercising their options. Beyond those players, there will be as many as a dozen others looking for work.
Of course, between today and opening day next year some of those players will be resigned, others will be traded. But either way, there will be precious few seats available in the game of musical chairs that is Major League free agency.
Without a clear 1st base propsect pegged to replace Konerko at first, should Williams decide to make resigning Konerko a priority, perhaps a 2 year deal at 7m per season with a team option for a third year at 5m would be fair. Konerko gets a bit of financial security, and the White Sox gain some small measure of protection against further regression. Frankly there are few places I can see Konerko slotting in elsewhere - Atlanta being the primary location to me. But even then, I can't see him getting more than the offer above.
The White Sox could try and go lower than that of course and try and pinch Konerko - and it might work. But I'm also the sort of person who believes that if you're going to keep a player like Konerko, you should do your best to treat him as fairly as possible.
Should Williams decide NOT to resign Konerko, as you can see there will be plenty of other options available to him in free agency. Newly acquired Jake Peavy of course, has lobbied to bring over former San Diego teammate and superstar Adrian Gonzalez. That of course is a whole other conversation for a different day. But the point stands - there will be no shortage of options via free agency or trade.
If none of those options are viable, could the White Sox choose to shift Carlos Quentin out of the outfield and over to first base? People always kick around talk of players moving positions, and generally it's foolishness, but there have been plenty of range-limited corner outfielders who've made the switch, so it isn't out of the question.
There is no shortage of options available to Kenny Williams and it'll be interesting as always to see how he plays his hand.
Konerko however, is no spring chicken. By the time the 2011 season rolls around Konerko will be 35. One of the main tenets of managing a small-mid payroll team is that teams need to be very careful when handing money out to aging veterans. The team must also consider the potential side effects of letting a fan favorite and team captain leave. I'm not much for intangibles, but Konerko has been the heart and soul of the franchise for a long time and letting him walk would undeniably change the dynamic inside the clubhouse.
On a pure statistical level, Konerko hasn't been an elite hitter since 2006, and given his age it's unlikely he will be again. In 2009 the MLB average OPS for first basemen was .845 - Konerko posted a .841 mark - his highest since '06, making him just slightly below average offensively. According to UZR he's been right around league average defensively his entire career, posting a +3.2 mark last year. In terms of WAR, he's posted his best mark of the past three season last year with a +2.7. Over the past three seasons however he's averaged just +1.93 wins above replacement.
On the free agent market, a player is worth about 4.5m per win above average. Using that rough estimate as a guideline, Konerko would typically be worth ~8-10m per season on the free agent market. However as we've seen the past couple years, the market for aging corner infielders/outfielders has been greatly depressed. Teams, it would seem, are coming to realize the relative ease with which these players can be replaced. As said earlier of course, the White Sox stand to lose a bit more than just Konerko's production.
With all the factors; offense, defense, intangibles, and corner infielder market value on the table, what would a fair offer be? I don't think it would be the 8-10m per annum our basic WAR extrapolation would suggest. That's primarily because there will be perhaps a half-dozen capable first basemen on the market next year. Just running down the list of guys who are probably worthy of starting jobs (in no particular order);
Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and of course, Konerko. Technically Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman could be free agents as well, but I'd imagine their respective teams will be exercising their options. Beyond those players, there will be as many as a dozen others looking for work.
Of course, between today and opening day next year some of those players will be resigned, others will be traded. But either way, there will be precious few seats available in the game of musical chairs that is Major League free agency.
Without a clear 1st base propsect pegged to replace Konerko at first, should Williams decide to make resigning Konerko a priority, perhaps a 2 year deal at 7m per season with a team option for a third year at 5m would be fair. Konerko gets a bit of financial security, and the White Sox gain some small measure of protection against further regression. Frankly there are few places I can see Konerko slotting in elsewhere - Atlanta being the primary location to me. But even then, I can't see him getting more than the offer above.
The White Sox could try and go lower than that of course and try and pinch Konerko - and it might work. But I'm also the sort of person who believes that if you're going to keep a player like Konerko, you should do your best to treat him as fairly as possible.
Should Williams decide NOT to resign Konerko, as you can see there will be plenty of other options available to him in free agency. Newly acquired Jake Peavy of course, has lobbied to bring over former San Diego teammate and superstar Adrian Gonzalez. That of course is a whole other conversation for a different day. But the point stands - there will be no shortage of options via free agency or trade.
If none of those options are viable, could the White Sox choose to shift Carlos Quentin out of the outfield and over to first base? People always kick around talk of players moving positions, and generally it's foolishness, but there have been plenty of range-limited corner outfielders who've made the switch, so it isn't out of the question.
There is no shortage of options available to Kenny Williams and it'll be interesting as always to see how he plays his hand.
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