In general this years Tigers team hasn't struggled for offense, they're 5th in the AL in runs scored (8th in MLB) and have averaged 4.46 runs per game. Strong marks. They are however extremely top-heavy with five regulars posting OPS marks of .820 or better - one of just three teams that can make the claim.
The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.
For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.
Showing posts with label Carlos Guillen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlos Guillen. Show all posts
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
What to Expect From Brennan Boesch In 2011
The Tigers 3rd round pick in the 2007 draft, Brennan Boesch had a breakout season for the Tigers in 2010, posting a monster first half in which he slugged his way to a .345/.397/.593 triple slash with 12 home runs and a 17.6% K-rate in 267 pre-All-Star Game at-bats. The very first pitch he saw, a fastball from Rich Harden, he lashed for a double and he just kept right on hitting through the break. More impressive is that he didn't begin to compile those numbers until after a mid-season call up, necessitated when Carlos Guillen went down. Until the All-Star break Boesch looked as though he were trying tp put his stamp on the left field job and make himself a permanent fixture in the Tigers batting order.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Projecting Brennan Boesch's 2011 Season
Yesterday I wrote about Carlos Guillen's microfracture procedure. But before any of that happened, Guillen went to the disabled list with a strained hamstring back in April that opened the door for Brennan Boesch to come in. Boesch was hitting .379 for AAA Toledo and the Tigers thought he could help fill in at designated hitter.
Boy we're they right about that.
Boesch proceeded to take Detroit by storm, posting a .973 OPS in May, and a stunning 1.025 mark in June. During that two month stretch he blasted 26 extra base hits, including 11 home runs in just 188 at-bats while driving in 36. Things went awry after that however and since the end of June, he's struggled to a .204/.287/.274 mark in the 226 at-bats since then.
So what gives?
Well, as is so often the case when relatively unknown players surge to incredible heights, there was a pretty significant amount of luck involved. During Boesch's incredible two month run he was buoyed by a BABIP of .384 - obviously a completely unsustainable rate. Since then he's suffered the predictable regression that always eventually follows. When paired with Brennan's Minor League track record of mediocrity his decline shouldn't have come as a huge surprise.
That being said, there are things to like about the 25 year old's game. He's a big body at 6'6" from the left side of the plate and he uses that ample frame to generate plus power. Many of the homeruns he hit we're of the definite no-doubt variety. That power was evident in the minors as well as he jacked 28 home runs as a 24 year old at AA Erie last year. He's also got a plus arm and moves well in the outfield, especially given his frame, getting consistently good reads on fly balls off the bat.
Brennan's draw backs are a poor eye at the plate - he struck out in 19.7% of his Minor League at-bats, while walking in just 5.9% of his plate appearances. And poor contact rates - a MiLB batting average of just .273 rarely translates well in the Majors.
In the Major's Boesch had a propensity for getting out on his front foot in an effort to get inside the ball and pull it to right. That has made him extremely susceptible to off-speed pitches as well as fastball inside. His batting averages against sliders this year has been just .235 and against changeups he's been even worse at .228.
Essentially Major League pitchers learned very quickly that you could get inside of Boesch's power by pounding him inside and his lack of plus bat speed has really hurt him.
I think Brennan has the raw tools to eventually be a solid if unspectacular hitter. His plus power will always play well but he's going to have to learn to adjust. You can cheat pitchers in the minors by letting your hips fly open, but you can't get away with that at this level. It might cut down on his homerun totals, but if the Tigers can teach him to stay back and stay inside the ball more often, he can stick. His defense should, at the very least keep him from being a defensive liability while giving him the possibility of being an asset.
I'm certainly not bullish on Boesch but I think he could provide a long-term line of something in the neighborhood of .250/.320/.450. I'm sure that's not what some Tiger fans want to see, but it's really not that bad at all. That's close to league average offense in right with the potential for above average defense. Overall, he's a solid player. Just probably not the star Tigers fan might've thought they had stumbled onto in June.
Boy we're they right about that.
Boesch proceeded to take Detroit by storm, posting a .973 OPS in May, and a stunning 1.025 mark in June. During that two month stretch he blasted 26 extra base hits, including 11 home runs in just 188 at-bats while driving in 36. Things went awry after that however and since the end of June, he's struggled to a .204/.287/.274 mark in the 226 at-bats since then.
So what gives?
Well, as is so often the case when relatively unknown players surge to incredible heights, there was a pretty significant amount of luck involved. During Boesch's incredible two month run he was buoyed by a BABIP of .384 - obviously a completely unsustainable rate. Since then he's suffered the predictable regression that always eventually follows. When paired with Brennan's Minor League track record of mediocrity his decline shouldn't have come as a huge surprise.
That being said, there are things to like about the 25 year old's game. He's a big body at 6'6" from the left side of the plate and he uses that ample frame to generate plus power. Many of the homeruns he hit we're of the definite no-doubt variety. That power was evident in the minors as well as he jacked 28 home runs as a 24 year old at AA Erie last year. He's also got a plus arm and moves well in the outfield, especially given his frame, getting consistently good reads on fly balls off the bat.
Brennan's draw backs are a poor eye at the plate - he struck out in 19.7% of his Minor League at-bats, while walking in just 5.9% of his plate appearances. And poor contact rates - a MiLB batting average of just .273 rarely translates well in the Majors.
In the Major's Boesch had a propensity for getting out on his front foot in an effort to get inside the ball and pull it to right. That has made him extremely susceptible to off-speed pitches as well as fastball inside. His batting averages against sliders this year has been just .235 and against changeups he's been even worse at .228.
Essentially Major League pitchers learned very quickly that you could get inside of Boesch's power by pounding him inside and his lack of plus bat speed has really hurt him.
I think Brennan has the raw tools to eventually be a solid if unspectacular hitter. His plus power will always play well but he's going to have to learn to adjust. You can cheat pitchers in the minors by letting your hips fly open, but you can't get away with that at this level. It might cut down on his homerun totals, but if the Tigers can teach him to stay back and stay inside the ball more often, he can stick. His defense should, at the very least keep him from being a defensive liability while giving him the possibility of being an asset.
I'm certainly not bullish on Boesch but I think he could provide a long-term line of something in the neighborhood of .250/.320/.450. I'm sure that's not what some Tiger fans want to see, but it's really not that bad at all. That's close to league average offense in right with the potential for above average defense. Overall, he's a solid player. Just probably not the star Tigers fan might've thought they had stumbled onto in June.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Carlos Guillen Has Microfracture Surgery
Carlos Guillen finally went under the knife to have microfracture surgery this past Friday. The produce is relatively knew and involves doing precisely what the name implies - creating many miniature fractures which is supposed to help improve the overall strength of the bone. That might sound odd, but in general, bones, when broken, heal much stronger than they were before. This is the general premise behind the surgery.
The time table for the produce is difficult. While ideal circumstances would have the player back on his feet in four months, and playing again in six, that's not always the case. The surgery is most common amongst basketball players and not infrequently, those players have taken much longer to fully recover, or simply never have. In terms of baseball players, the only notable cases has been those of Brian Giles and Grady Sizemore. Giles never made it back and Sizemore is still struggling two years later. I don't say that to create panic - but to be realistic. Guillen is facing a long, complicated recovery process, and one that doesn't always go well.
For the Tigers as a franchise, the injury and the surgery have significant on-field and front-office implications. Guillen has struggled through injuries the past few years, playing just 113 games in 2008, 81 in 2009, and just 68 in 2010. All the while he's seen his defensive abilities predictably decline as his range has diminished. That said, he was managing to play a passable 2nd base (-5.0 UZR/150) in a small sample size after taking over for the extremely disappointing Scott Sizemore earlier in the year. before being hurt in a collision with the Yankees Brett Gardner.
In Guillen's stead the little heralded Will Rhymes has taken over and been a pleasant surprise. Rhymes has posted a .293/.341/.369 triple slash on a perfectly sustainable .319 BABIP. At 27 years old the slightly built Rhymes possesses neither significant upside, nor any power to speak of, but he's a solid contact hitter and plays decent defense. Long-term, he's not the answer at the position, but provided he doesn't show any significant decline, there is little reason to believe that he can't continue to play passable (-8.5 UZR/150) defense while providing a solid bottom-of-the-order OBP.
In a more ideal world however, Sizemore will begin to perform to his fairly impressive capabilities. While the Tigers had expected Sizemore to be ready to take over for the departed Placido Polanco it appears that an injury suffered the previous fall in the Arizona Fall League had not yet full healed and he struggled significantly. After being demoted early in the year, he pulled his game together somewhat, posting progressively better numbers each month for AAA Toledo (save for a pretty rough month of August). In his limited time since that return he's performed well, launching two homeruns in the Tigers past two games.
For the remainder of this year, Manager Jim Leyland will go with a Rhymes/Sizemore platoon. However, he's stated that he does not want to have to platoon his second baseman next year, citing concerns over the continuity of the teams double-play combination. The Tigers second base job is likely to open 2010 as an open competition between Sizemore and Rhymes. I would have to believe that the best possible option would be for the younger, more talented Sizemore to win the job outright and hold on to it. Something he failed to do this year.
The final aspect to this situation is Guillen's 13m financial commitment for 2011. Odds are that the Tigers have Guillen's contract insured, as is the case with most significant contracts. It's also likely that the insurance would cover roughly half of his salary in the event that Guillen was unable to play in 2011. Should Guillen be physically able to play however, the Tigers would likely not be able to collet insurnace monies and would, therefore, be stuck paying a player who might have very little to contribute, even if used strictly as a designated hitter. Long-term, the injury is thankfully less impactful. 2011 was Guillen's final year under contract and it was unlikely he'd be back with the Tigers (or if so, at a greatly reduced cost).
Of course, we always hope for the best - for the player and the organization - and that's no different in this case. But the Tigers need to be prepared to go forward in the event that their former All-Star shortstop is either incapable of performing well - or at all.
The time table for the produce is difficult. While ideal circumstances would have the player back on his feet in four months, and playing again in six, that's not always the case. The surgery is most common amongst basketball players and not infrequently, those players have taken much longer to fully recover, or simply never have. In terms of baseball players, the only notable cases has been those of Brian Giles and Grady Sizemore. Giles never made it back and Sizemore is still struggling two years later. I don't say that to create panic - but to be realistic. Guillen is facing a long, complicated recovery process, and one that doesn't always go well.
For the Tigers as a franchise, the injury and the surgery have significant on-field and front-office implications. Guillen has struggled through injuries the past few years, playing just 113 games in 2008, 81 in 2009, and just 68 in 2010. All the while he's seen his defensive abilities predictably decline as his range has diminished. That said, he was managing to play a passable 2nd base (-5.0 UZR/150) in a small sample size after taking over for the extremely disappointing Scott Sizemore earlier in the year. before being hurt in a collision with the Yankees Brett Gardner.
In Guillen's stead the little heralded Will Rhymes has taken over and been a pleasant surprise. Rhymes has posted a .293/.341/.369 triple slash on a perfectly sustainable .319 BABIP. At 27 years old the slightly built Rhymes possesses neither significant upside, nor any power to speak of, but he's a solid contact hitter and plays decent defense. Long-term, he's not the answer at the position, but provided he doesn't show any significant decline, there is little reason to believe that he can't continue to play passable (-8.5 UZR/150) defense while providing a solid bottom-of-the-order OBP.
In a more ideal world however, Sizemore will begin to perform to his fairly impressive capabilities. While the Tigers had expected Sizemore to be ready to take over for the departed Placido Polanco it appears that an injury suffered the previous fall in the Arizona Fall League had not yet full healed and he struggled significantly. After being demoted early in the year, he pulled his game together somewhat, posting progressively better numbers each month for AAA Toledo (save for a pretty rough month of August). In his limited time since that return he's performed well, launching two homeruns in the Tigers past two games.
For the remainder of this year, Manager Jim Leyland will go with a Rhymes/Sizemore platoon. However, he's stated that he does not want to have to platoon his second baseman next year, citing concerns over the continuity of the teams double-play combination. The Tigers second base job is likely to open 2010 as an open competition between Sizemore and Rhymes. I would have to believe that the best possible option would be for the younger, more talented Sizemore to win the job outright and hold on to it. Something he failed to do this year.
The final aspect to this situation is Guillen's 13m financial commitment for 2011. Odds are that the Tigers have Guillen's contract insured, as is the case with most significant contracts. It's also likely that the insurance would cover roughly half of his salary in the event that Guillen was unable to play in 2011. Should Guillen be physically able to play however, the Tigers would likely not be able to collet insurnace monies and would, therefore, be stuck paying a player who might have very little to contribute, even if used strictly as a designated hitter. Long-term, the injury is thankfully less impactful. 2011 was Guillen's final year under contract and it was unlikely he'd be back with the Tigers (or if so, at a greatly reduced cost).
Of course, we always hope for the best - for the player and the organization - and that's no different in this case. But the Tigers need to be prepared to go forward in the event that their former All-Star shortstop is either incapable of performing well - or at all.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Ryan Raburn Deserves a Real Chance
In 2009, the Tigers opened the season with Josh Anderson as their opening day left fielder and handed innings to no less than seven different players at the position before Ryan Raburn finally cemented himself at the position, closing the season with a very good run, by posting an OPS of 1.043 on a not wildly unsustainable (though still very high) BABIP of .350.
That display of offensive prowess wasn't enough however to keep the Tigers from seeking an upgrade, and this offseason they brought in All-Star veteran Johnny Damon to try and solidify the position. Damon was coming off a very strong 2009 of his own that saw him post a .854 OPS - his best mark since 2004. However, most teams shied away from him and his asking price on the basis that most viewed him as more of a DH than regular in left and over concerns that his performance had more to do with other factors (like the shiny new stadium in the Bronx). But the Tigers saw an opportunity to buy low on a guy who had finished the game of musical chairs that is the MLB off season without a job, and signed him for a one year 8m deal.
It turns out those concerns were largely justified. Damon posted an OPS of just .763. His defense has been ok, as he posted a +5.3 UZR/150 in limited action, getting most of his playing time at DH when Carlos Guillen (again) landed himself on the disabled list and Brennan Boesch emerged as an offensive force through the first half.
Raburn was again relegated to bench duty, pinch hitting work, and the occasional spot start. Not surprisingly, he struggled with the inconsistent at-bats. But then Magglio Ordonez went down with injury, and Boesch eventually came back to Earth after his BABIP fell out of the 400s. Suddenly there was another chance for Raburn.
Again, Raburn has taken his chance at every day work and run with it. Since Ordonez went down on July 24th, Raburn has picked up the slack, hitting .333 with a 1.005 OPS and 11 home runs in 173 at-bats. After posting a .891 OPS in 2009, he's backed it up with a .827 this year and for his career - one that spans nearly a thousand at-bats - he now has an OPS of .802. And, despite a reputation of struggling against righties, he's posted OPS marks of .800 in 2009 and .769 in 2010
There should be little doubt about it, he can hit.
To be clear, Raburn is a liability in the field, but his defense in left throughout his career has been passable. I tend to think the +1.7 UZR/150 in left that he's accumulated throughout his career isn't indicative of his real fielding abilities (which aren't that good) but he's not nearly as bad as the reputation he's received either.
In total, Ryan Raburn is a guy who can, and will, hit. He'll do so while playing a below average left field, but his bat should more than make up for that and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to provide 2/3 WAR for the next few years.
Oh yeah, and he won't run the Tigers 8m either.
That display of offensive prowess wasn't enough however to keep the Tigers from seeking an upgrade, and this offseason they brought in All-Star veteran Johnny Damon to try and solidify the position. Damon was coming off a very strong 2009 of his own that saw him post a .854 OPS - his best mark since 2004. However, most teams shied away from him and his asking price on the basis that most viewed him as more of a DH than regular in left and over concerns that his performance had more to do with other factors (like the shiny new stadium in the Bronx). But the Tigers saw an opportunity to buy low on a guy who had finished the game of musical chairs that is the MLB off season without a job, and signed him for a one year 8m deal.
It turns out those concerns were largely justified. Damon posted an OPS of just .763. His defense has been ok, as he posted a +5.3 UZR/150 in limited action, getting most of his playing time at DH when Carlos Guillen (again) landed himself on the disabled list and Brennan Boesch emerged as an offensive force through the first half.
Raburn was again relegated to bench duty, pinch hitting work, and the occasional spot start. Not surprisingly, he struggled with the inconsistent at-bats. But then Magglio Ordonez went down with injury, and Boesch eventually came back to Earth after his BABIP fell out of the 400s. Suddenly there was another chance for Raburn.
Again, Raburn has taken his chance at every day work and run with it. Since Ordonez went down on July 24th, Raburn has picked up the slack, hitting .333 with a 1.005 OPS and 11 home runs in 173 at-bats. After posting a .891 OPS in 2009, he's backed it up with a .827 this year and for his career - one that spans nearly a thousand at-bats - he now has an OPS of .802. And, despite a reputation of struggling against righties, he's posted OPS marks of .800 in 2009 and .769 in 2010
There should be little doubt about it, he can hit.
To be clear, Raburn is a liability in the field, but his defense in left throughout his career has been passable. I tend to think the +1.7 UZR/150 in left that he's accumulated throughout his career isn't indicative of his real fielding abilities (which aren't that good) but he's not nearly as bad as the reputation he's received either.
In total, Ryan Raburn is a guy who can, and will, hit. He'll do so while playing a below average left field, but his bat should more than make up for that and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to provide 2/3 WAR for the next few years.
Oh yeah, and he won't run the Tigers 8m either.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Tigers Send Carlos Guillen To 15-Day DL
The Tigers, already thin on offense just lost one of their key cogs as Carlos Guillen, who spend about a third of 2008 and about a half of 2009 on the disabled list with a variety of ailments, went down with a pulled hamstring. He's was immediately placed on the fifteen day disabled list and the Tigers have brought up outfielder Brennan Boesch to take his place.
The Tigers we're a thin team offensively coming into 2010 with Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera being the only consistently above-average offensive options on the team. Without Guillen, they're left in an even worse position. While rookie Austin Jackson has helped ease some of that burden, there are a couple big issues that portend tougher days ahead for the youngster. More on that later.
For now, the Tigers simply need Guillen to try and get better. The problem is that hamstring injuries have a way of persisting throughout a season. The Tigers are hoping that enough rest will take care of the issue, but I'm not so optimistic, and that could be a doubly bad thing for the Tigers.
Any time you lose a guy who is hitting .311 and has an OPS of .834, it's going to be a bad thing. This is especially true on a team where offense is hard to come by. It's even more true when that offense is nearly the only thing keeping pitchers from throwing to the one guy who can really, really hurt them.
Now generally speaking, I'm not big on the idea of protection in a lineup. There have been plenty of studies done to show that it has minimal (if any) effect on the output of the player being "protected." But given how Miguel Cabrera is currently treating American League pitchers much the same way that a cat might treat a trapped mouse - tormenting, pouncing, devouring - this might be one of the few times it's a legitimate issue.
Cabrera has pummeled opposing pitchers, batting .365 while walking more than he strikes out, and blasting eleven extra-base hits in just 73 at-bats while driving in 19 runs. Right now Cabrera might very well be the most imposing figure in the batters box in the entire American League. The Tigers are going to need whoever occupies Guillen's spot for the next couple weeks to hit and give the opposition some reason to not simply intentionally walk Cabrera every time he steps to the plate.
Given the lineup for game one, that task will, at least for now, fall to the young man who is replacing Guillen, 25 year old Brennan Boesche. Boesche has hammered away at AAA pitchers so far this year, hitting .379 while posting an OPS of 1.075. Boesche however struck out in 24.1% of his at-bats at AA in 2009 while hitting 28 home runs and 61 total extra base hits. So far has struck out in 29.3% of his AAA at-bats while hitting three home runs and seven total extra base hits. That's an admittedly small sample size from this year, but not surprising given his strikeout rate in AA.
Boesche will certainly hit the ball for some power, but he's also going to strike out a ton, at least for now, and because of that, isn't likely to hit for sustainable average. He's also had issues taking a walk which may be more disturbing than the strikeouts because it suggests he's willing to expand his strike-zone to swing at anything. That's precisely the sort of weakness Major League pitchers tend to exploit without regard.
Thankfully to say, this will be a very short-term situation. Hopefully. Because Boesche probably isn't going to hit well enough, consistently enough, to make opposing pitchers fear pitching around Cabrera. And that could mean bad things for the Tigers offense on a longer-term basis.
The Tigers we're a thin team offensively coming into 2010 with Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera being the only consistently above-average offensive options on the team. Without Guillen, they're left in an even worse position. While rookie Austin Jackson has helped ease some of that burden, there are a couple big issues that portend tougher days ahead for the youngster. More on that later.
For now, the Tigers simply need Guillen to try and get better. The problem is that hamstring injuries have a way of persisting throughout a season. The Tigers are hoping that enough rest will take care of the issue, but I'm not so optimistic, and that could be a doubly bad thing for the Tigers.
Any time you lose a guy who is hitting .311 and has an OPS of .834, it's going to be a bad thing. This is especially true on a team where offense is hard to come by. It's even more true when that offense is nearly the only thing keeping pitchers from throwing to the one guy who can really, really hurt them.
Now generally speaking, I'm not big on the idea of protection in a lineup. There have been plenty of studies done to show that it has minimal (if any) effect on the output of the player being "protected." But given how Miguel Cabrera is currently treating American League pitchers much the same way that a cat might treat a trapped mouse - tormenting, pouncing, devouring - this might be one of the few times it's a legitimate issue.
Cabrera has pummeled opposing pitchers, batting .365 while walking more than he strikes out, and blasting eleven extra-base hits in just 73 at-bats while driving in 19 runs. Right now Cabrera might very well be the most imposing figure in the batters box in the entire American League. The Tigers are going to need whoever occupies Guillen's spot for the next couple weeks to hit and give the opposition some reason to not simply intentionally walk Cabrera every time he steps to the plate.
Given the lineup for game one, that task will, at least for now, fall to the young man who is replacing Guillen, 25 year old Brennan Boesche. Boesche has hammered away at AAA pitchers so far this year, hitting .379 while posting an OPS of 1.075. Boesche however struck out in 24.1% of his at-bats at AA in 2009 while hitting 28 home runs and 61 total extra base hits. So far has struck out in 29.3% of his AAA at-bats while hitting three home runs and seven total extra base hits. That's an admittedly small sample size from this year, but not surprising given his strikeout rate in AA.
Boesche will certainly hit the ball for some power, but he's also going to strike out a ton, at least for now, and because of that, isn't likely to hit for sustainable average. He's also had issues taking a walk which may be more disturbing than the strikeouts because it suggests he's willing to expand his strike-zone to swing at anything. That's precisely the sort of weakness Major League pitchers tend to exploit without regard.
Thankfully to say, this will be a very short-term situation. Hopefully. Because Boesche probably isn't going to hit well enough, consistently enough, to make opposing pitchers fear pitching around Cabrera. And that could mean bad things for the Tigers offense on a longer-term basis.
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