Every team has it interesting spring training races to watch, and in the AL Central that's no different. In Minnesota, there are six starters fighting for five spots and bullpen full of holes after the team jettisoned essentially their entire bullpen this past off season. Kansas City has a youngster (or three) that should have every veteran on their toes. The Indians are trying to figure out how to fill third base and with all the outfield injuries, there is room for someone who wants to step up there.
Showing posts with label Magglio Ordonez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Magglio Ordonez. Show all posts
Monday, March 14, 2011
Monday, December 20, 2010
Tigers Bring Back Magglio Ordonez
With his teams greatest needs - catching and bullpen help - completed, and outfield stars Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth signed away on absurd contracts, Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski has made perhaps the Tigers last significant signing of the off season by bringing back long-time right fielder and former MVP Magglio Ordonez on a one-year, ten million dollar deal.
After a down 2009 season, there was a lot of hand-wringing within the Tigers fanbase about whether or not he'd be a capable option for the team in 2010. In detailing players who needed to bounce back last March, I identified Magglio Ordonez as one of the two candidates on the Tigers, surmising;
In general, that was precisely the case as Ordonez posted a .852 OPS. Not quite a return to his previously prodigious levels of production, but well above average all the same. Perhaps just as importantly, Ordonez seemed to bounce back a bit defensively too, posting a UZR/150 of +2.8. Ordonez has never been a standout with the glove, and all of the advanced defensive metrics has suggested as much since around 2007. Particularly alarming is we're the back-to-back -12 UZR/150 seasons Ordonez had in 2008 and 2009. Ordonez's defense was so bad that in 2009, despite posting a still solid .804 OPS, he was worth just 1.5 WAR.
So to see Magglio have a solid offensive bounce-back and to see him posting better defensive marks was certainly encouraging. Unfortunately, he went down mid-way through the year with a broken ankle and managed to log only about 60% of a full seasons worth of plate appearances. It was a disappointing end to a season that could've seen him rack up a WAR of 4.0 or so and perhaps propelled him to one last big-dollar multi-year deal.
Of course, player contracts are a zero-sum game and in this case, Magglio's loss could be the Tigers gain as his injury might have allowed Dombrowski to make perhaps the off season's best free agent signing. In a winter that's seen outfielders near thirty (or over) getting seven year deals, a multitude of relievers being handed three-year contracts that almost never work out, and multi-year deals for middling position players - the Tigers signed a legitimate 4 WAR candidate for just one year at a rate (10.0m) that actually trends toward the lower end of his possible production level.
Obviously Ordonez, who will be 37 during the 2011 season is no spring chicken. And though he may be a shell of the player that just four seasons ago was the AL MVP after a monster season, he's still capable of producing .300/.380/.480 - .860 offense and, depending upon how his ankle heals, and how successful his rehab is, could be at least around league average defensively.
In other words, for six fewer years, and 116m dollars less than the Nationals will be giving Jayson Werth - the Tigers stand a solid chance of getting about 80% of the production in 2010. That's the definition of a savvy signing.
After a down 2009 season, there was a lot of hand-wringing within the Tigers fanbase about whether or not he'd be a capable option for the team in 2010. In detailing players who needed to bounce back last March, I identified Magglio Ordonez as one of the two candidates on the Tigers, surmising;
"...while there was a significant decline in power production, there wasn't much change in Ordonez' ancillary numbers. His strikeout, walks, and line drive rates remain essentially unchanged. The one huge difference was in ground ball rate. Magglio, as is the case with most power hitters, has always been an extreme fly ball hitter. Last year that changed radically as his ground ball rate shot up to 51% from a career rate of 44.2%.Let's forget the last part about a lineup I expected to surprise people and focus on the GOOD prognostication about Ordonez having a solid bounce-back year shall we?
To me, that suggests a mechanical issue, and mechanical issues can be fixed with good coaching. I'd be far more concerned if we were seeing declines in the other numbers, as that would suggest lower bat speed, or declining ability to recognize and react to pitches. We don't see any of that. With a fine spring training under his belt where he mashed six extra base hits along with a pair of homers in just 51 at-bats, I'd expect Magglio to produce just fine in the middle of the Tigers order and provide a lot more run producing power to a lineup I think will surprise a lot of people in 2009."
In general, that was precisely the case as Ordonez posted a .852 OPS. Not quite a return to his previously prodigious levels of production, but well above average all the same. Perhaps just as importantly, Ordonez seemed to bounce back a bit defensively too, posting a UZR/150 of +2.8. Ordonez has never been a standout with the glove, and all of the advanced defensive metrics has suggested as much since around 2007. Particularly alarming is we're the back-to-back -12 UZR/150 seasons Ordonez had in 2008 and 2009. Ordonez's defense was so bad that in 2009, despite posting a still solid .804 OPS, he was worth just 1.5 WAR.
So to see Magglio have a solid offensive bounce-back and to see him posting better defensive marks was certainly encouraging. Unfortunately, he went down mid-way through the year with a broken ankle and managed to log only about 60% of a full seasons worth of plate appearances. It was a disappointing end to a season that could've seen him rack up a WAR of 4.0 or so and perhaps propelled him to one last big-dollar multi-year deal.
Of course, player contracts are a zero-sum game and in this case, Magglio's loss could be the Tigers gain as his injury might have allowed Dombrowski to make perhaps the off season's best free agent signing. In a winter that's seen outfielders near thirty (or over) getting seven year deals, a multitude of relievers being handed three-year contracts that almost never work out, and multi-year deals for middling position players - the Tigers signed a legitimate 4 WAR candidate for just one year at a rate (10.0m) that actually trends toward the lower end of his possible production level.
Obviously Ordonez, who will be 37 during the 2011 season is no spring chicken. And though he may be a shell of the player that just four seasons ago was the AL MVP after a monster season, he's still capable of producing .300/.380/.480 - .860 offense and, depending upon how his ankle heals, and how successful his rehab is, could be at least around league average defensively.
In other words, for six fewer years, and 116m dollars less than the Nationals will be giving Jayson Werth - the Tigers stand a solid chance of getting about 80% of the production in 2010. That's the definition of a savvy signing.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Ryan Raburn Deserves a Real Chance
In 2009, the Tigers opened the season with Josh Anderson as their opening day left fielder and handed innings to no less than seven different players at the position before Ryan Raburn finally cemented himself at the position, closing the season with a very good run, by posting an OPS of 1.043 on a not wildly unsustainable (though still very high) BABIP of .350.
That display of offensive prowess wasn't enough however to keep the Tigers from seeking an upgrade, and this offseason they brought in All-Star veteran Johnny Damon to try and solidify the position. Damon was coming off a very strong 2009 of his own that saw him post a .854 OPS - his best mark since 2004. However, most teams shied away from him and his asking price on the basis that most viewed him as more of a DH than regular in left and over concerns that his performance had more to do with other factors (like the shiny new stadium in the Bronx). But the Tigers saw an opportunity to buy low on a guy who had finished the game of musical chairs that is the MLB off season without a job, and signed him for a one year 8m deal.
It turns out those concerns were largely justified. Damon posted an OPS of just .763. His defense has been ok, as he posted a +5.3 UZR/150 in limited action, getting most of his playing time at DH when Carlos Guillen (again) landed himself on the disabled list and Brennan Boesch emerged as an offensive force through the first half.
Raburn was again relegated to bench duty, pinch hitting work, and the occasional spot start. Not surprisingly, he struggled with the inconsistent at-bats. But then Magglio Ordonez went down with injury, and Boesch eventually came back to Earth after his BABIP fell out of the 400s. Suddenly there was another chance for Raburn.
Again, Raburn has taken his chance at every day work and run with it. Since Ordonez went down on July 24th, Raburn has picked up the slack, hitting .333 with a 1.005 OPS and 11 home runs in 173 at-bats. After posting a .891 OPS in 2009, he's backed it up with a .827 this year and for his career - one that spans nearly a thousand at-bats - he now has an OPS of .802. And, despite a reputation of struggling against righties, he's posted OPS marks of .800 in 2009 and .769 in 2010
There should be little doubt about it, he can hit.
To be clear, Raburn is a liability in the field, but his defense in left throughout his career has been passable. I tend to think the +1.7 UZR/150 in left that he's accumulated throughout his career isn't indicative of his real fielding abilities (which aren't that good) but he's not nearly as bad as the reputation he's received either.
In total, Ryan Raburn is a guy who can, and will, hit. He'll do so while playing a below average left field, but his bat should more than make up for that and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to provide 2/3 WAR for the next few years.
Oh yeah, and he won't run the Tigers 8m either.
That display of offensive prowess wasn't enough however to keep the Tigers from seeking an upgrade, and this offseason they brought in All-Star veteran Johnny Damon to try and solidify the position. Damon was coming off a very strong 2009 of his own that saw him post a .854 OPS - his best mark since 2004. However, most teams shied away from him and his asking price on the basis that most viewed him as more of a DH than regular in left and over concerns that his performance had more to do with other factors (like the shiny new stadium in the Bronx). But the Tigers saw an opportunity to buy low on a guy who had finished the game of musical chairs that is the MLB off season without a job, and signed him for a one year 8m deal.
It turns out those concerns were largely justified. Damon posted an OPS of just .763. His defense has been ok, as he posted a +5.3 UZR/150 in limited action, getting most of his playing time at DH when Carlos Guillen (again) landed himself on the disabled list and Brennan Boesch emerged as an offensive force through the first half.
Raburn was again relegated to bench duty, pinch hitting work, and the occasional spot start. Not surprisingly, he struggled with the inconsistent at-bats. But then Magglio Ordonez went down with injury, and Boesch eventually came back to Earth after his BABIP fell out of the 400s. Suddenly there was another chance for Raburn.
Again, Raburn has taken his chance at every day work and run with it. Since Ordonez went down on July 24th, Raburn has picked up the slack, hitting .333 with a 1.005 OPS and 11 home runs in 173 at-bats. After posting a .891 OPS in 2009, he's backed it up with a .827 this year and for his career - one that spans nearly a thousand at-bats - he now has an OPS of .802. And, despite a reputation of struggling against righties, he's posted OPS marks of .800 in 2009 and .769 in 2010
There should be little doubt about it, he can hit.
To be clear, Raburn is a liability in the field, but his defense in left throughout his career has been passable. I tend to think the +1.7 UZR/150 in left that he's accumulated throughout his career isn't indicative of his real fielding abilities (which aren't that good) but he's not nearly as bad as the reputation he's received either.
In total, Ryan Raburn is a guy who can, and will, hit. He'll do so while playing a below average left field, but his bat should more than make up for that and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to provide 2/3 WAR for the next few years.
Oh yeah, and he won't run the Tigers 8m either.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Tigers Send Carlos Guillen To 15-Day DL
The Tigers, already thin on offense just lost one of their key cogs as Carlos Guillen, who spend about a third of 2008 and about a half of 2009 on the disabled list with a variety of ailments, went down with a pulled hamstring. He's was immediately placed on the fifteen day disabled list and the Tigers have brought up outfielder Brennan Boesch to take his place.
The Tigers we're a thin team offensively coming into 2010 with Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera being the only consistently above-average offensive options on the team. Without Guillen, they're left in an even worse position. While rookie Austin Jackson has helped ease some of that burden, there are a couple big issues that portend tougher days ahead for the youngster. More on that later.
For now, the Tigers simply need Guillen to try and get better. The problem is that hamstring injuries have a way of persisting throughout a season. The Tigers are hoping that enough rest will take care of the issue, but I'm not so optimistic, and that could be a doubly bad thing for the Tigers.
Any time you lose a guy who is hitting .311 and has an OPS of .834, it's going to be a bad thing. This is especially true on a team where offense is hard to come by. It's even more true when that offense is nearly the only thing keeping pitchers from throwing to the one guy who can really, really hurt them.
Now generally speaking, I'm not big on the idea of protection in a lineup. There have been plenty of studies done to show that it has minimal (if any) effect on the output of the player being "protected." But given how Miguel Cabrera is currently treating American League pitchers much the same way that a cat might treat a trapped mouse - tormenting, pouncing, devouring - this might be one of the few times it's a legitimate issue.
Cabrera has pummeled opposing pitchers, batting .365 while walking more than he strikes out, and blasting eleven extra-base hits in just 73 at-bats while driving in 19 runs. Right now Cabrera might very well be the most imposing figure in the batters box in the entire American League. The Tigers are going to need whoever occupies Guillen's spot for the next couple weeks to hit and give the opposition some reason to not simply intentionally walk Cabrera every time he steps to the plate.
Given the lineup for game one, that task will, at least for now, fall to the young man who is replacing Guillen, 25 year old Brennan Boesche. Boesche has hammered away at AAA pitchers so far this year, hitting .379 while posting an OPS of 1.075. Boesche however struck out in 24.1% of his at-bats at AA in 2009 while hitting 28 home runs and 61 total extra base hits. So far has struck out in 29.3% of his AAA at-bats while hitting three home runs and seven total extra base hits. That's an admittedly small sample size from this year, but not surprising given his strikeout rate in AA.
Boesche will certainly hit the ball for some power, but he's also going to strike out a ton, at least for now, and because of that, isn't likely to hit for sustainable average. He's also had issues taking a walk which may be more disturbing than the strikeouts because it suggests he's willing to expand his strike-zone to swing at anything. That's precisely the sort of weakness Major League pitchers tend to exploit without regard.
Thankfully to say, this will be a very short-term situation. Hopefully. Because Boesche probably isn't going to hit well enough, consistently enough, to make opposing pitchers fear pitching around Cabrera. And that could mean bad things for the Tigers offense on a longer-term basis.
The Tigers we're a thin team offensively coming into 2010 with Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera being the only consistently above-average offensive options on the team. Without Guillen, they're left in an even worse position. While rookie Austin Jackson has helped ease some of that burden, there are a couple big issues that portend tougher days ahead for the youngster. More on that later.
For now, the Tigers simply need Guillen to try and get better. The problem is that hamstring injuries have a way of persisting throughout a season. The Tigers are hoping that enough rest will take care of the issue, but I'm not so optimistic, and that could be a doubly bad thing for the Tigers.
Any time you lose a guy who is hitting .311 and has an OPS of .834, it's going to be a bad thing. This is especially true on a team where offense is hard to come by. It's even more true when that offense is nearly the only thing keeping pitchers from throwing to the one guy who can really, really hurt them.
Now generally speaking, I'm not big on the idea of protection in a lineup. There have been plenty of studies done to show that it has minimal (if any) effect on the output of the player being "protected." But given how Miguel Cabrera is currently treating American League pitchers much the same way that a cat might treat a trapped mouse - tormenting, pouncing, devouring - this might be one of the few times it's a legitimate issue.
Cabrera has pummeled opposing pitchers, batting .365 while walking more than he strikes out, and blasting eleven extra-base hits in just 73 at-bats while driving in 19 runs. Right now Cabrera might very well be the most imposing figure in the batters box in the entire American League. The Tigers are going to need whoever occupies Guillen's spot for the next couple weeks to hit and give the opposition some reason to not simply intentionally walk Cabrera every time he steps to the plate.
Given the lineup for game one, that task will, at least for now, fall to the young man who is replacing Guillen, 25 year old Brennan Boesche. Boesche has hammered away at AAA pitchers so far this year, hitting .379 while posting an OPS of 1.075. Boesche however struck out in 24.1% of his at-bats at AA in 2009 while hitting 28 home runs and 61 total extra base hits. So far has struck out in 29.3% of his AAA at-bats while hitting three home runs and seven total extra base hits. That's an admittedly small sample size from this year, but not surprising given his strikeout rate in AA.
Boesche will certainly hit the ball for some power, but he's also going to strike out a ton, at least for now, and because of that, isn't likely to hit for sustainable average. He's also had issues taking a walk which may be more disturbing than the strikeouts because it suggests he's willing to expand his strike-zone to swing at anything. That's precisely the sort of weakness Major League pitchers tend to exploit without regard.
Thankfully to say, this will be a very short-term situation. Hopefully. Because Boesche probably isn't going to hit well enough, consistently enough, to make opposing pitchers fear pitching around Cabrera. And that could mean bad things for the Tigers offense on a longer-term basis.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Tigers Roundup: Week One
Tigers (5-1): The Tigers opened the season with a pair of divisional foes, in the Royals and Indians, going a combined 5-1, a brilliant beginning to their season. What really stood out to me was the hitting of three players. Offensively, the team was carried by a trio of players, the first two you know all about, Magglio Ordonez (1.286 OPS) and Miguel Cabrera (1.403) either of whom could win the AL Player of the week. The other is rookie Austin Jackson (.848) who has carried over a hot spring into the regular season.
One the mound, starting pitchers Dontrelle Willis (6.0IP / 2ER) and Jeremy Bonderman (5IP / 2ER) both pitched very well, giving the club a pair of badly needed starts to help propel them forward. While I am highly skeptical about either of those two pitchers being in the rotation come June 1st, what they can give the Tigers in the short run will buy management some time to decide what if anything they can bring in to provide a more long-term solution.
The problems for the Tigers were at the bottom of the lineup. Gerald Laird, the regular starting catcher had just one hit, and they got next to nothing from rookie second baseman Scott Sizemore.
The two biggest issues that the Tigers are going to face this year will be what they do beyond their six good hitters. Will they try and a make a move to address shortstop, catcher, or third base, or will they prefer to stick with the current options? The Tigers have Alex Avila who they can try a catcher if they want to improve the offense. He brings good power, but strikes out a ton, and would be a defensive downgrade.
The biggest concern I have however, is the rotation. In spots 1-3, the Tigers are great, but Bonderman and Willis simply aren't going to be long for the rotation. They do have some options in Eddie Bonine, and Armando Galarraga, but those aren't exactly ideal either. Should the Tigers suffer an extended injury to any of their top three starters, it could jeopardize their season entirely.
One the mound, starting pitchers Dontrelle Willis (6.0IP / 2ER) and Jeremy Bonderman (5IP / 2ER) both pitched very well, giving the club a pair of badly needed starts to help propel them forward. While I am highly skeptical about either of those two pitchers being in the rotation come June 1st, what they can give the Tigers in the short run will buy management some time to decide what if anything they can bring in to provide a more long-term solution.
The problems for the Tigers were at the bottom of the lineup. Gerald Laird, the regular starting catcher had just one hit, and they got next to nothing from rookie second baseman Scott Sizemore.
The two biggest issues that the Tigers are going to face this year will be what they do beyond their six good hitters. Will they try and a make a move to address shortstop, catcher, or third base, or will they prefer to stick with the current options? The Tigers have Alex Avila who they can try a catcher if they want to improve the offense. He brings good power, but strikes out a ton, and would be a defensive downgrade.
The biggest concern I have however, is the rotation. In spots 1-3, the Tigers are great, but Bonderman and Willis simply aren't going to be long for the rotation. They do have some options in Eddie Bonine, and Armando Galarraga, but those aren't exactly ideal either. Should the Tigers suffer an extended injury to any of their top three starters, it could jeopardize their season entirely.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
The Paradox of Magglio Ordonez
A couple days ago I spoke briefly about the odds of Magglio Ordonez bouncing back from a down year, finally surmising that I expect him to do so. However, Ordonez playing well puts the Tigers front office and management in a bit of a bind as Ordonez has a 15.0m option for next season that vests if he reaches 135 starts or 540 plate appearances.
On a positive note the Tigers have a massive amount of money coming off the books next year as the bad contracts for Jeremy Bonderman (12.5m), Dontrelle Willis (12.0m), Nate Robertson (10.0m), Johnny Damon (8.0m), Brandon Inge (6.6m), along with smaller deals for catcher Gerald Laird (3.95m), Bobby Seay (2.475m), and Adam Everett (1.55m). That's a total of 57.075m. Should Ordonez's option not vest, that would bring the total to a whopping 72.075m.
With the Tigers opening day payroll this year just over 130.0m, one wonders how long that sort of spending can be maintained without seeing returns. By most accounts, Tigers owner Mike Illitch is eating a fairly substantial loss with attendance down and the state of the Detroit economy in a less-than-ideal spot.
That was true this off season as well, when the trades of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson were seen as payroll cutting moves. That notion however was largely invalidated when the Tigers then went out and spent a combined 22.0m on free agents Jose Valverde and Johnny Damon over a total of three years.
That doesn't necessarily mean that the Tigers wont be cutting payroll in the near future however, and the invaluable Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys said the following when asked about the Tigers payroll;
"[Then], either Tigers underestimated what that would do to attendance (for a club that would still be paying out about $115 million at the major league level) or owner Mike Ilitch didn't feel like wasting a year. Either way, the decision was made to invest a bit more in the product and make a run at the division, thus boosting sales and enjoyment. I think that's valid. You're already spending $115m to lose, why not add $15m to try to win?"
It makes perfect sense I suppose. If the Tigers can gain an additional 15.0m in revenue this season by being competitive (or at least by improving the notion of their competitiveness to the fan base) then it's certainly worth the investment in a financial sense.
That brings us back to the issue of Ordonez. There are a few questions to answer; first, how many wins is 15.0m worth? The second, if he isn't playing well enough to be worth 15.0m, should the team try and platoon him with another outfielder - perhaps Ryan Raburn - to keep him from reaching that option.
The first part of the equation is actually fairly easy to answer - or at least to ball park. We know that a win (on the WAR scale) is worth approximately 4.5m. So simple math: 15.0m / 4.5m = 3.33 wins. To be worth 3.33 wins, he'd have to post an OPS in the neighborhood of .875 and play around league average defense. That's hardly out of the question for him.
But what if he isn't, what if we're approaching mid-season and his OPS is around .820? What then? The team could try and turn to Raburn to hold Ordonez under the 540 PA mark, and of course deal with the inevitable union grievance later.
But therein lies the problem for the Tigers. Ordonez isn't likely to out play the value of his deal either this year or next, but trying to prevent that option from vesting isn't easy. With a payroll that is likely to tighten, even with all the money coming off the books, the Tigers might not really want Ordonez's option to vest, even if that is what is best for the teams competitiveness. That might not be an easy notion for a lot of Tigers fans to digest, but it's certainly not without validity.
On a positive note the Tigers have a massive amount of money coming off the books next year as the bad contracts for Jeremy Bonderman (12.5m), Dontrelle Willis (12.0m), Nate Robertson (10.0m), Johnny Damon (8.0m), Brandon Inge (6.6m), along with smaller deals for catcher Gerald Laird (3.95m), Bobby Seay (2.475m), and Adam Everett (1.55m). That's a total of 57.075m. Should Ordonez's option not vest, that would bring the total to a whopping 72.075m.
With the Tigers opening day payroll this year just over 130.0m, one wonders how long that sort of spending can be maintained without seeing returns. By most accounts, Tigers owner Mike Illitch is eating a fairly substantial loss with attendance down and the state of the Detroit economy in a less-than-ideal spot.
That was true this off season as well, when the trades of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson were seen as payroll cutting moves. That notion however was largely invalidated when the Tigers then went out and spent a combined 22.0m on free agents Jose Valverde and Johnny Damon over a total of three years.
That doesn't necessarily mean that the Tigers wont be cutting payroll in the near future however, and the invaluable Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys said the following when asked about the Tigers payroll;
"[Then], either Tigers underestimated what that would do to attendance (for a club that would still be paying out about $115 million at the major league level) or owner Mike Ilitch didn't feel like wasting a year. Either way, the decision was made to invest a bit more in the product and make a run at the division, thus boosting sales and enjoyment. I think that's valid. You're already spending $115m to lose, why not add $15m to try to win?"
It makes perfect sense I suppose. If the Tigers can gain an additional 15.0m in revenue this season by being competitive (or at least by improving the notion of their competitiveness to the fan base) then it's certainly worth the investment in a financial sense.
That brings us back to the issue of Ordonez. There are a few questions to answer; first, how many wins is 15.0m worth? The second, if he isn't playing well enough to be worth 15.0m, should the team try and platoon him with another outfielder - perhaps Ryan Raburn - to keep him from reaching that option.
The first part of the equation is actually fairly easy to answer - or at least to ball park. We know that a win (on the WAR scale) is worth approximately 4.5m. So simple math: 15.0m / 4.5m = 3.33 wins. To be worth 3.33 wins, he'd have to post an OPS in the neighborhood of .875 and play around league average defense. That's hardly out of the question for him.
But what if he isn't, what if we're approaching mid-season and his OPS is around .820? What then? The team could try and turn to Raburn to hold Ordonez under the 540 PA mark, and of course deal with the inevitable union grievance later.
But therein lies the problem for the Tigers. Ordonez isn't likely to out play the value of his deal either this year or next, but trying to prevent that option from vesting isn't easy. With a payroll that is likely to tighten, even with all the money coming off the books, the Tigers might not really want Ordonez's option to vest, even if that is what is best for the teams competitiveness. That might not be an easy notion for a lot of Tigers fans to digest, but it's certainly not without validity.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Bounce Back Players
In the race for AL Central supremacy, the fate of the three front runners - the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox - could very likely rest on the shoulders of a handful of players looking to come back strong. Today we'll examine which players fans of those team should expect to come back, and which are likely to disappoint.
Tigers
Magglio Ordonez: Ordonez was hardly useless last year, posting a solid .804 OPS. But for a guy who has a career OPS of of .884, that's not quite what Tigers fans have come to expect. The primary reason for the decline a big decline in the power department. After raking 55 extra base hits in 2009, he had just 35 last year - just nine of which were home runs. More troubling still, it wasn't the first year of decline - he had an absurd 82 extra base hits in 2008.
For a guy who will be 36 this year, the days of posting MVP numbers are likely behind Magglio, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he should rebound nicely this year and be more like the hitter he was in 2008, than the guy he was in 2009.
First and most importantly, while there was a significant decline in power production, there wasn't much change in Ordonez' ancillary numbers. His strikeout, walks, and line drive rates remain essentially unchanged. The one huge difference was in ground ball rate. Magglio, as is the case with most power hitters, has always been an extreme fly ball hitter. Last year that changed radically as his ground ball rate shot up to 51% from a career rate of 44.2%.
To me, that suggests a mechanical issue, and mechanical issues can be fixed with good coaching. I'd be far more concerned if we were seeing declines in the other numbers, as that would suggest lower bat speed, or declining ability to recognize and react to pitches. We don't see any of that. With a fine spring training under his belt where he mashed six extra base hits along with a pair of homers in just 51 at-bats, I'd expect Magglio to produce just fine in the middle of the Tigers order and provide a lot more run producing power to a lineup I think will surprise a lot of people in 2009.
Dontrelle Willis: After being left by the side of the road for garbage removal, Willis has seemingly risen from the dead to reclaim a spot in the Tigers rotation. The Tigers front office clearly felt strong enough about Willis that they we're willing to trade Nate Robertson to the Marlins. Robertson having plenty of his own issues and his own bloated contract obviously convolutes the impressiveness of Willis' feat, but given where he has been the last couple years, this should be seen as a very good sign.
When most people think of Willis, they tend to remember him as the dominant youngster he was with the Marlins back in the early part of the decade. The weird thing is that despite some gaudy ERA and W/L numbers, he was never really that terribly dominant. His fastball velocity at it's peak only averaged 90.5 mph, he only once topped 7 K/9, only once had a walk rate lower than 2.7 BB/9, and has only once had a ground ball rate over 50%. Of all the things pitchers generally need to do well in order to be successful, Willis hasn't really ever done any of them.
To me that means he was getting by on deception, whether it was the crazy leg kick or the weird 3/4, almost sidearm slot he used to throw with. Either way, hitters figured him out. When they did, it left a lot of people feeling confused, but really, there was never much to be confused by. Willis, was, and always has been, a pretty mediocre pitcher. The problem is that beginning in 2006, his walk rate began to deteriorate. It was somewhat steady at first, but his command fell off a cliff after joining the Tigers and since signing a huge contract with the team, he's made just 14 starts in two seasons, with a combined ERA over 8.00.
Things might be looking up for Willis and the Tigers however. Reports this spring are that Willis is throwing in the high 80's, which is just a bit lower than his career norms, and that he's gotten his command issues under control enough to be useful.
I however, remain highly skeptical. While reports of better command are nice, 12 walks in 19.1 spring innings against just 13 strikeouts doesn't bode well at all. While one should never look into spring training innings much at all, in Willis' case, you almost have to. One thing Willis has done a phenomenal job of however, is keeping the ball on the ground, getting 2 ground ball outs for every fly out this spring.
On a personal level, I want Willis to succeed. I've followed his decline pretty closely since his days with the Marlins and remember what a great ambassador for the game he seemed to be. Willis was the sort of player it was difficult to root against, and that remains true to this day. He's always struck me as a pretty humble guy, and to read some of the quotes from him when he was down was just sad. Unfortunately, I also have to listen to my common sense, and on the whole, I don't expect much from Willis this year and I'm afraid he'll be out of the rotation within a month.
White Sox
Alex Rios: Earlier, in discussing Magglio Ordonez, I pointed out how I would be concerned to see a player posting declining numbers in their strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. I used that to illustrate why I expected Magglio Ordonez to have a return to normalcy this season. Well, it is for precisely those same reasons that I am more concerned about Rios.
Even after wasting his first two seasons with OPS numbers in the low .700s and a disastrous 2009, Rios has been a career .289/.330/.444 hitter. He posted back-to-back .850+ OPS seasons in 2006 and 2007 and a solid if unspectacular .798 in 2008. So even with three really ugly seasons in his short career, he's been at least a league average offensive player.
That said, all the trend lines for Rios are going the wrong way. His ISO (isolated power) has decline in four straight seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have trended the wrong way for three straight seasons. His line drive rate, pretty consistently at around 20% for his career nose dived to 16.4% last year.
Those numbers definitely suggest a player who's skill set is diminishing. He simply doesn't seem to be seeing the ball as well, and is no longer able to square it up the way he once was. There is evidence that he may have been able to mask his decline to some extent in 2008 by posting a .337 BABIP, his highest mark ever and 12 points above his career average, though the .798 OPS should've provided some evidence to his lessening skills. Last year however, he was definitely the victim of some bad luck as his BABIP was just .273.
While the trend lines suggest that his decline is real, and his BABIP last year suggests he was unlucky, I personally tend to trust the trend lines more. Even if Rios' BABIP last year was in like with his career average, of .319, which would've added a substantial 36 points to his batting average, 2009 still would've ranked as his worst season since 2005.
I'm confident that Rios will rebound to some extent in 2010, but I'm also confident that his days of being a .800 OPS hitter are likely over. Given the contact commitment the White Sox are on the hook for with him, that could be a very bad thing indeed. Generally speaking Kenny Williams is one of the savviest GMs in baseball, but I think he may have miscalculated this move. Hopefully for the White Sox faithful, I'm wrong.
Jake Peavy: Clearly this is less a conversation about some kind of decline that Peavy had, and more about his return from injury, but there is one possible sign of decline in Peavy too. Most prominently I'm referring to his walk rate. While they're hardly been bad the past couple of years, they aren't what they once were either. From 2004 through 2007, a stretch of four seasons, the WORST walk rate Peavy ever posted was 2.87 BB/9.
While nit-picking on a slightly worse walk rate than normal might be considered reaching, it is worth being aware of. We should also take note of slight decreases in velocity the past couple of seasons. While velocity tends to be over-valued by fans and research shows the difference between fastballs with equal movement and location tend to be almost exactly as effective regardless of the speed with which the pitch is thrown - the exceptions being above 96 mph or below 85 mph - declining velocity does frequently (though hardly always) correlate with declining overall skills.
The good news for Sox fans is that Peavy was dominant in his return last fall. While the strikeout rates were predictably off just a little bit, the walk rate looked good and he kept the ball in the ballpark nicely. He's had some command issues this spring, and while there has been some hand wringing in the media, I'm inclined to believe it's nothing.
I expect big things from Peavy this year, and if he can return to his Cy Young winning form, he could just lead the White Sox to the playoffs.
Carlos Quentin: Much like Peavy, Quentin struggled through an injury plagued 2009 season, but when he's on and when he's healthy he's be a legitimate force in the middle of any lineup. Given the trade of Jim Thome and the off season departure of Jermaine Dye, Quentin will be expected to provide much of the punch in the middle of the Chicago offense.
If Quentin can provide anything like the .965 OPS he did in 2008, it's going to make the White Sox a much tougher team to contend with. Standing in Quentin's way will be an off walk rate, historically poor line drive rates, and increasing fly ball rates.
High fly ball rates and poor line drive rates will pretty much always coincide with below normal BABIP numbers, and Quentin is no exception. If his career BABIP of .255 seems freakishly low, that's because it is. It also means his BABIP of .282 in 2008 suggested he was a bit lucky that year, and a bit unlucky last season. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of a .860-.880 OPS this year.
Twins
J.J. Hardy: Hardy was acquired by the Twins in a trade for Carlos Gomez. It was a good trade in the sense that each team was trading from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness. In the Twins case, they had Denard Span to take over for the offensively challenged Gomez, and the Brewers had top prospect Alcides Escobar ready to take over for declining incumbent Hardy.
Like Rios, who I discussed earlier in this post, Hardy has a lot of negative trend lines that don't bode well for future success. The strikeout rate has risen for three straight years to 20.5% this last year, and his line drive rate has fallen for three straight seasons to an almost impossibly low 13.9% last year. His power also fell off a cliff from a career high ISO of .195 in 2008 to .128 last year. Furthermore a study of his BABIP last year leads one to believe luck wasn't a huge factor last year as his .260 mark wasn't too far off his career .278.
If there was any sign of hope for Hardy last year it was that his walk rate was the best of his career. The Twins won't be relying Hardy to power their offense by any means, and right now it looks like he'll be slotted 7th or 8th in the order. All the same, Hardy was brought in with the intent of shoring up the incredibly weak offense the team received at shortstop and second base last year, and with a 5.1m payroll number, he'll be expected to provide something for the team with the bat.
Thankfully to say, much of Hardy's value is tied up in the fact that he's a plus defender at a defense first position, and that did not take a step backward last season. It'll be interesting to see how the move to the AL effects Hardy - generally that doesn't bode well for the player - if that trend holds true and Hardy isn't able to regain his old offensive form, Bill Smith will have missed once again in a trade.
Everything having been said, I'm not too high on Hardy and I don't expect much of a bounce back season, though he shouldn't be quite as bad as last year. If he can give the Twins an OPS around .750, Twins fans should consider themselves lucky.
Francisco Liriano: After what can only be described as a dismal 2009, many Twins fans seemed ready to give up on Liriano. There was talk of moving him to the bullpen permanently, or trading him for whatever they could get. Thankfully for the Twins, that didn't happen. Instead Liriano headed off off to the Dominican Winter League and dominated. He then came to spring training and picked up where he left off. Between the Dominican League and the Cactus League he gave his teams 68.2 innings of shut-down baseball. In that span he struck out 97, walked 7, and allowed just two home runs.
Obviously those video game type numbers aren't going to carry over to the Majors, but the Twins and their fans have every reason to be excited. Perhaps most importantly, this is one of those situations where the numbers and the reports jive. Scouts have been saying that Liriano has regained more of his velocity, not all of it, but enough to make a difference. More importantly, his slider, once one of baseballs most devastating pitches, is breaking harder and deeper with more consistency than it has since 2006.
Right now Liriano is projected to be the Twins 5th starter but I have a feeling he's going to end up as their ace by the time May comes around. Either way, he should be significantly better than he was in 2009, and I think his downside might be his 2008 second half which was pretty solid in its own right. If Liriano can return to being a #1 or #2 - or even a #3 he's going to make a big difference in the outcome of the Twins 2010 season.
Tigers
Magglio Ordonez: Ordonez was hardly useless last year, posting a solid .804 OPS. But for a guy who has a career OPS of of .884, that's not quite what Tigers fans have come to expect. The primary reason for the decline a big decline in the power department. After raking 55 extra base hits in 2009, he had just 35 last year - just nine of which were home runs. More troubling still, it wasn't the first year of decline - he had an absurd 82 extra base hits in 2008.
For a guy who will be 36 this year, the days of posting MVP numbers are likely behind Magglio, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he should rebound nicely this year and be more like the hitter he was in 2008, than the guy he was in 2009.
First and most importantly, while there was a significant decline in power production, there wasn't much change in Ordonez' ancillary numbers. His strikeout, walks, and line drive rates remain essentially unchanged. The one huge difference was in ground ball rate. Magglio, as is the case with most power hitters, has always been an extreme fly ball hitter. Last year that changed radically as his ground ball rate shot up to 51% from a career rate of 44.2%.
To me, that suggests a mechanical issue, and mechanical issues can be fixed with good coaching. I'd be far more concerned if we were seeing declines in the other numbers, as that would suggest lower bat speed, or declining ability to recognize and react to pitches. We don't see any of that. With a fine spring training under his belt where he mashed six extra base hits along with a pair of homers in just 51 at-bats, I'd expect Magglio to produce just fine in the middle of the Tigers order and provide a lot more run producing power to a lineup I think will surprise a lot of people in 2009.
Dontrelle Willis: After being left by the side of the road for garbage removal, Willis has seemingly risen from the dead to reclaim a spot in the Tigers rotation. The Tigers front office clearly felt strong enough about Willis that they we're willing to trade Nate Robertson to the Marlins. Robertson having plenty of his own issues and his own bloated contract obviously convolutes the impressiveness of Willis' feat, but given where he has been the last couple years, this should be seen as a very good sign.
When most people think of Willis, they tend to remember him as the dominant youngster he was with the Marlins back in the early part of the decade. The weird thing is that despite some gaudy ERA and W/L numbers, he was never really that terribly dominant. His fastball velocity at it's peak only averaged 90.5 mph, he only once topped 7 K/9, only once had a walk rate lower than 2.7 BB/9, and has only once had a ground ball rate over 50%. Of all the things pitchers generally need to do well in order to be successful, Willis hasn't really ever done any of them.
To me that means he was getting by on deception, whether it was the crazy leg kick or the weird 3/4, almost sidearm slot he used to throw with. Either way, hitters figured him out. When they did, it left a lot of people feeling confused, but really, there was never much to be confused by. Willis, was, and always has been, a pretty mediocre pitcher. The problem is that beginning in 2006, his walk rate began to deteriorate. It was somewhat steady at first, but his command fell off a cliff after joining the Tigers and since signing a huge contract with the team, he's made just 14 starts in two seasons, with a combined ERA over 8.00.
Things might be looking up for Willis and the Tigers however. Reports this spring are that Willis is throwing in the high 80's, which is just a bit lower than his career norms, and that he's gotten his command issues under control enough to be useful.
I however, remain highly skeptical. While reports of better command are nice, 12 walks in 19.1 spring innings against just 13 strikeouts doesn't bode well at all. While one should never look into spring training innings much at all, in Willis' case, you almost have to. One thing Willis has done a phenomenal job of however, is keeping the ball on the ground, getting 2 ground ball outs for every fly out this spring.
On a personal level, I want Willis to succeed. I've followed his decline pretty closely since his days with the Marlins and remember what a great ambassador for the game he seemed to be. Willis was the sort of player it was difficult to root against, and that remains true to this day. He's always struck me as a pretty humble guy, and to read some of the quotes from him when he was down was just sad. Unfortunately, I also have to listen to my common sense, and on the whole, I don't expect much from Willis this year and I'm afraid he'll be out of the rotation within a month.
White Sox
Alex Rios: Earlier, in discussing Magglio Ordonez, I pointed out how I would be concerned to see a player posting declining numbers in their strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. I used that to illustrate why I expected Magglio Ordonez to have a return to normalcy this season. Well, it is for precisely those same reasons that I am more concerned about Rios.
Even after wasting his first two seasons with OPS numbers in the low .700s and a disastrous 2009, Rios has been a career .289/.330/.444 hitter. He posted back-to-back .850+ OPS seasons in 2006 and 2007 and a solid if unspectacular .798 in 2008. So even with three really ugly seasons in his short career, he's been at least a league average offensive player.
That said, all the trend lines for Rios are going the wrong way. His ISO (isolated power) has decline in four straight seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have trended the wrong way for three straight seasons. His line drive rate, pretty consistently at around 20% for his career nose dived to 16.4% last year.
Those numbers definitely suggest a player who's skill set is diminishing. He simply doesn't seem to be seeing the ball as well, and is no longer able to square it up the way he once was. There is evidence that he may have been able to mask his decline to some extent in 2008 by posting a .337 BABIP, his highest mark ever and 12 points above his career average, though the .798 OPS should've provided some evidence to his lessening skills. Last year however, he was definitely the victim of some bad luck as his BABIP was just .273.
While the trend lines suggest that his decline is real, and his BABIP last year suggests he was unlucky, I personally tend to trust the trend lines more. Even if Rios' BABIP last year was in like with his career average, of .319, which would've added a substantial 36 points to his batting average, 2009 still would've ranked as his worst season since 2005.
I'm confident that Rios will rebound to some extent in 2010, but I'm also confident that his days of being a .800 OPS hitter are likely over. Given the contact commitment the White Sox are on the hook for with him, that could be a very bad thing indeed. Generally speaking Kenny Williams is one of the savviest GMs in baseball, but I think he may have miscalculated this move. Hopefully for the White Sox faithful, I'm wrong.
Jake Peavy: Clearly this is less a conversation about some kind of decline that Peavy had, and more about his return from injury, but there is one possible sign of decline in Peavy too. Most prominently I'm referring to his walk rate. While they're hardly been bad the past couple of years, they aren't what they once were either. From 2004 through 2007, a stretch of four seasons, the WORST walk rate Peavy ever posted was 2.87 BB/9.
While nit-picking on a slightly worse walk rate than normal might be considered reaching, it is worth being aware of. We should also take note of slight decreases in velocity the past couple of seasons. While velocity tends to be over-valued by fans and research shows the difference between fastballs with equal movement and location tend to be almost exactly as effective regardless of the speed with which the pitch is thrown - the exceptions being above 96 mph or below 85 mph - declining velocity does frequently (though hardly always) correlate with declining overall skills.
The good news for Sox fans is that Peavy was dominant in his return last fall. While the strikeout rates were predictably off just a little bit, the walk rate looked good and he kept the ball in the ballpark nicely. He's had some command issues this spring, and while there has been some hand wringing in the media, I'm inclined to believe it's nothing.
I expect big things from Peavy this year, and if he can return to his Cy Young winning form, he could just lead the White Sox to the playoffs.
Carlos Quentin: Much like Peavy, Quentin struggled through an injury plagued 2009 season, but when he's on and when he's healthy he's be a legitimate force in the middle of any lineup. Given the trade of Jim Thome and the off season departure of Jermaine Dye, Quentin will be expected to provide much of the punch in the middle of the Chicago offense.
If Quentin can provide anything like the .965 OPS he did in 2008, it's going to make the White Sox a much tougher team to contend with. Standing in Quentin's way will be an off walk rate, historically poor line drive rates, and increasing fly ball rates.
High fly ball rates and poor line drive rates will pretty much always coincide with below normal BABIP numbers, and Quentin is no exception. If his career BABIP of .255 seems freakishly low, that's because it is. It also means his BABIP of .282 in 2008 suggested he was a bit lucky that year, and a bit unlucky last season. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of a .860-.880 OPS this year.
Twins
J.J. Hardy: Hardy was acquired by the Twins in a trade for Carlos Gomez. It was a good trade in the sense that each team was trading from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness. In the Twins case, they had Denard Span to take over for the offensively challenged Gomez, and the Brewers had top prospect Alcides Escobar ready to take over for declining incumbent Hardy.
Like Rios, who I discussed earlier in this post, Hardy has a lot of negative trend lines that don't bode well for future success. The strikeout rate has risen for three straight years to 20.5% this last year, and his line drive rate has fallen for three straight seasons to an almost impossibly low 13.9% last year. His power also fell off a cliff from a career high ISO of .195 in 2008 to .128 last year. Furthermore a study of his BABIP last year leads one to believe luck wasn't a huge factor last year as his .260 mark wasn't too far off his career .278.
If there was any sign of hope for Hardy last year it was that his walk rate was the best of his career. The Twins won't be relying Hardy to power their offense by any means, and right now it looks like he'll be slotted 7th or 8th in the order. All the same, Hardy was brought in with the intent of shoring up the incredibly weak offense the team received at shortstop and second base last year, and with a 5.1m payroll number, he'll be expected to provide something for the team with the bat.
Thankfully to say, much of Hardy's value is tied up in the fact that he's a plus defender at a defense first position, and that did not take a step backward last season. It'll be interesting to see how the move to the AL effects Hardy - generally that doesn't bode well for the player - if that trend holds true and Hardy isn't able to regain his old offensive form, Bill Smith will have missed once again in a trade.
Everything having been said, I'm not too high on Hardy and I don't expect much of a bounce back season, though he shouldn't be quite as bad as last year. If he can give the Twins an OPS around .750, Twins fans should consider themselves lucky.
Francisco Liriano: After what can only be described as a dismal 2009, many Twins fans seemed ready to give up on Liriano. There was talk of moving him to the bullpen permanently, or trading him for whatever they could get. Thankfully for the Twins, that didn't happen. Instead Liriano headed off off to the Dominican Winter League and dominated. He then came to spring training and picked up where he left off. Between the Dominican League and the Cactus League he gave his teams 68.2 innings of shut-down baseball. In that span he struck out 97, walked 7, and allowed just two home runs.
Obviously those video game type numbers aren't going to carry over to the Majors, but the Twins and their fans have every reason to be excited. Perhaps most importantly, this is one of those situations where the numbers and the reports jive. Scouts have been saying that Liriano has regained more of his velocity, not all of it, but enough to make a difference. More importantly, his slider, once one of baseballs most devastating pitches, is breaking harder and deeper with more consistency than it has since 2006.
Right now Liriano is projected to be the Twins 5th starter but I have a feeling he's going to end up as their ace by the time May comes around. Either way, he should be significantly better than he was in 2009, and I think his downside might be his 2008 second half which was pretty solid in its own right. If Liriano can return to being a #1 or #2 - or even a #3 he's going to make a big difference in the outcome of the Twins 2010 season.
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