Regardless of the lens through which you choose to view the game of baseball, or how you chose to evaluate performance, Jim Thome's production in 2010 was big. All by itself with no perspective given, a .283 average, with 25 home runs would be good - and if you're someone who prefers your baseball analysis as simple as possible, you're going to like that production. Indeed just 20 players other players posted an average as good with as many home runs.
Prefer your statistics to be more advanced? His 1.039 OPS would've been third to just Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera. His .437 wOBA third to Hamilton and Joey Votto. How about player value? Thome's 3.6 WAR was the best of any designated hitter, while former Twin David Ortiz (3.3) came in second.
The kicker to all that of course is that the Twins were able to sign him for the heinous base salary of 1.6m - but don't worry, he earned another 200k in incentives for reaching 300 plate appearances - for a grand total of 1.8m
If the voices in your head are saying something along the lines of, "Hold on... what?" you're not alone.
How exactly did we get to a point where Thome, a near certain Hall Of Famer, and one of baseball's most beloved characters could barely get 1.5m guaranteed? I mean, the White Sox gave Mark Teahan (yeah, the Mark Teahan who was supposed to replace Thome) three years and 14m. But picking on the White Sox alone isn't fair. This isn't the case of one team making a bad decision, this is a situation where 29 other teams legitimately sat down and said, "no, we're not interested in Jim Thome even at just two million."
The Royals, who dug up 2.75m for Rick Ankiel and another 1.7m for Willie Bloomquist apparently couldn't dig enough change out of the couch for Thome. I guess paying Jose Guillen 12m to clog up the DH spot was a better play. Neither could the Indians, who instead signed Russell Branyan for 1.5m to be a left handed option off the bench before trading him to the Mariners where he replaced their other DH, perennial Citizen Of The Year Award Winner Milton Bradley.
He'd have been the best hitter on any of those teams - by a vast margin - and could've been had for the baseball equivalent of loose change. How the hell did this happen?
The most likely explanation is that executives saw his declining performance - his OPS in 2009 was JUST .847, combined it with his advancing age and thought he was done for. I guess that makes some sense. Not nearly enough sense mind you, but some. Even when you consider that his market was limited to the 14 AL teams where he could serve as a DH, there are a lot of teams (all of them) that could've used Thome's bat in a bench role - which is precisely the roll for which the Twins signed Thome.
I say all of that to say this: how the hell did we wind up back at the EXACT SAME PLACE????
It's now 2010 instead of 2009 and still no one could make an offer that topped the reported 4m the Rangers offered? Really? It would appear that Thome considered more things than just money - there is speculation he chose the Twins slightly smaller 3m + incentives deal to be closer to his family in Chiacgo, and obviously the Twins are a more competitive club than, say, the Mariners. But... seriously?
Perhaps the only thing more criminal than the Twins being able to sign Thome for 1.5m in 2010 off his .847 OPS in the year before is them signing him for 3.0m in 2011 off his 1.037 OPS.
But let's add some important perspective - I'm not by any means under the impression that Thome is going to repeat his 2010 season, not by a long shot. Other than Albert Pujols, I don't expect anyone to post back-to-back 1.000 OPS seasons. But as Thome showed in 2010 he can still demolish right-handed pitching, and while it's unlikely that he'll do so to the same extent in 2011, I'm guessing he'll still hit them plenty hard. Certainly projecting him to a .850 OPS isn't exactly going out on any kind of a limb.
Further, Thome doesn't fill an obvious hole. Jason Kubel came into 2010 as the Twins every-day designated hitter and he'll likely enter 2011 with the same role. What the Twins really could've used was a right-handed hitter to platoon with Kubel who, like Thome, struggles mightily with left-handed pitching. Personally, I think they'd have been better served by signing either Manny Ramirez or Vlad Guerrero who could platoon in the DH role and provide the Twins with some desperately needed pop from the right side. Clearly the Twins felt otherwise.
Beyond what Thome brings on the field, and beyond the immeasurable intangibles he brings to the clubhouse - he provides something else to the Twins - insurance on Justin Morneau's concussion.
Free agency is a mixed bag. Sometimes you know from the start that a deal is going to implode. Sometimes you know it'll work out. And yes, sometimes there are steals. But they should never be this obvious.
Showing posts with label Jose Guillen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jose Guillen. Show all posts
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Rick Ankiel Hurt, Royals Call Up Kila Ka'aihue
Royals center fielder Rick Ankiel left their contest back on May 2nd with a strained quadriceps muscle and is now headed for the disabled list. The move will be retroactive to May 2nd, which means Ankiel could return as early as the 17th of this month. In the meantime, Mitch Maier should get most of the playing time.
This actually makes me, and probably a lot of Royals fans, pretty happy. While Ankiel has hit predictably poorly, with an OPS of .695 while striking out in an unfathomable 35% of his at-bats, Maier has rotted on the bench. The same Maier who has spent three seasons as a quality player at AAA Omaha, and who has done little to show he is any worse with the bat than Ankiel.
Indeed Maier has actually performed quite a bit better than Ankiel in his 45 at-bats, posting a .752 OPS. Of course, the small sample size is worth noting. While Maier is probably better suited defensively to a corner outfield position, he Royals have been playing him in center, here he is probably a bit of a downgrade from Ankiel.
Worst case scenario, this should be a net-neutral move for the Royals, and has the potential to be a solid positive as Maier should be the better hitter. To say nothing of being younger, and controllable (RE: Cheaper) than Ankiel. With any luck at all Maier can put together a strong stretch of baseball in Ankiel's absence and at least force Manager Trey Hillman to consider keeping him as a regular.
Ankiel's place on the roster is being taken by first base prospect Kila Ka'aihue. Like Maier, Ka'aihue is another player who has proven himself for a couple years at AAA but hasn't been given a chance at the Major League level. With Billy Butler at first base and Jose Guillen, at least for now, at designated hitter, it doesn't appear likely that Ka'aihue will get many at-bats, or even a chance to play. All of which begs the question, why call him up in the first place?
Ka'aihue is not necessarily your prototypical first base slugger - he doesn't hit a ton of homeruns (just 28 in 694 AAA at-bats), but he draws a TON of walks, having taken more free passes than strikeouts each of the past two years. He's also shown the ability to hit over .300 the past few seasons and if he can combine the ability to hit for solid average with his ability to draw walks, he could cut out a Nick Johnson-like career.
This actually makes me, and probably a lot of Royals fans, pretty happy. While Ankiel has hit predictably poorly, with an OPS of .695 while striking out in an unfathomable 35% of his at-bats, Maier has rotted on the bench. The same Maier who has spent three seasons as a quality player at AAA Omaha, and who has done little to show he is any worse with the bat than Ankiel.
Indeed Maier has actually performed quite a bit better than Ankiel in his 45 at-bats, posting a .752 OPS. Of course, the small sample size is worth noting. While Maier is probably better suited defensively to a corner outfield position, he Royals have been playing him in center, here he is probably a bit of a downgrade from Ankiel.
Worst case scenario, this should be a net-neutral move for the Royals, and has the potential to be a solid positive as Maier should be the better hitter. To say nothing of being younger, and controllable (RE: Cheaper) than Ankiel. With any luck at all Maier can put together a strong stretch of baseball in Ankiel's absence and at least force Manager Trey Hillman to consider keeping him as a regular.
Ankiel's place on the roster is being taken by first base prospect Kila Ka'aihue. Like Maier, Ka'aihue is another player who has proven himself for a couple years at AAA but hasn't been given a chance at the Major League level. With Billy Butler at first base and Jose Guillen, at least for now, at designated hitter, it doesn't appear likely that Ka'aihue will get many at-bats, or even a chance to play. All of which begs the question, why call him up in the first place?
Ka'aihue is not necessarily your prototypical first base slugger - he doesn't hit a ton of homeruns (just 28 in 694 AAA at-bats), but he draws a TON of walks, having taken more free passes than strikeouts each of the past two years. He's also shown the ability to hit over .300 the past few seasons and if he can combine the ability to hit for solid average with his ability to draw walks, he could cut out a Nick Johnson-like career.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Alex Gordon Demoted
If I were to tell you that the Royals personnel decisions baffle me, I'd only joining the chorus of tens of thousands of disgruntled Kansas City fans. Well, I'm joining. Officially.
Earlier this year I suggested that the Royals had a potentially solid infield once they got all their players healthy, suggesting that a lineup of Billy Butler at first, Alberto Callaspo at second, Mike Aviles at short, and Alex Gordon at third was potentially quite strong offensively.
The Royals brass obviously doesn't see it that way. While it was initially reported that Gordon would be benched once second baseman Chris Getz returned from his DL trip, there was also speculation that he could be sent to the minors outright.
That's precisely what has happened.
One one hand I suppose it's good that if Gordon isn't going to be utilized on a regular basis, he can at least get consistent at-bats. But is it the best overall decision? I certainly don't think so. With that said, lets not fool ourselves into believing that Gordon is something that he is not. He has a career .744 OPS, huge strikeout rates, and both UZR and the +/- system rank him as below average at third base.
That's a bad combination.
But what does sending him down do? He isn't going to learn anything new at AAA. He isn't going to learn to adjust to Major League breaking balls, that's for sure. What's more, it probably isn't in the Royals best interests right now, or in the future. It isn't in their best interests because it leaves one of the few players with any discernible upside in the minor leagues. It isn't in their best interest because it lowers his already marginal trade value.
Furthermore, bringing up Aviles, who they sent down less than a month ago because he didn't have the arm-strength to sit on the bench in Gordon's stead is equally baffling. Both of these players need at-bats, and while Aviles who is recovering from injury would be better suited to get those innings in the minors, he'll sit on the bench in the Majors. Gordon, who has nothing left to prove but needs to continue to adjust to Major League play, will sit in the minors.
Baffling.
*Update*
The Royals now apparently plan on switching Gordon off of third base entirely and teaching him to play left field and first base. With top prospect Mike Moustakas at third base long-term, and Butler, along with prospect Kila Ka'aihue, at first, one would presume that left field will be where he spends most of his time.
Given that they're moving him off the hot corner, and given the absences they'll have in left field and at designated hitter after Scott Podsednik and Jose Guillen depart after this season, it certain appears that this is more of a move to find a way to make Gordon fit better into their long-term plans.
Earlier this year I suggested that the Royals had a potentially solid infield once they got all their players healthy, suggesting that a lineup of Billy Butler at first, Alberto Callaspo at second, Mike Aviles at short, and Alex Gordon at third was potentially quite strong offensively.
The Royals brass obviously doesn't see it that way. While it was initially reported that Gordon would be benched once second baseman Chris Getz returned from his DL trip, there was also speculation that he could be sent to the minors outright.
That's precisely what has happened.
One one hand I suppose it's good that if Gordon isn't going to be utilized on a regular basis, he can at least get consistent at-bats. But is it the best overall decision? I certainly don't think so. With that said, lets not fool ourselves into believing that Gordon is something that he is not. He has a career .744 OPS, huge strikeout rates, and both UZR and the +/- system rank him as below average at third base.
That's a bad combination.
But what does sending him down do? He isn't going to learn anything new at AAA. He isn't going to learn to adjust to Major League breaking balls, that's for sure. What's more, it probably isn't in the Royals best interests right now, or in the future. It isn't in their best interests because it leaves one of the few players with any discernible upside in the minor leagues. It isn't in their best interest because it lowers his already marginal trade value.
Furthermore, bringing up Aviles, who they sent down less than a month ago because he didn't have the arm-strength to sit on the bench in Gordon's stead is equally baffling. Both of these players need at-bats, and while Aviles who is recovering from injury would be better suited to get those innings in the minors, he'll sit on the bench in the Majors. Gordon, who has nothing left to prove but needs to continue to adjust to Major League play, will sit in the minors.
Baffling.
*Update*
The Royals now apparently plan on switching Gordon off of third base entirely and teaching him to play left field and first base. With top prospect Mike Moustakas at third base long-term, and Butler, along with prospect Kila Ka'aihue, at first, one would presume that left field will be where he spends most of his time.
Given that they're moving him off the hot corner, and given the absences they'll have in left field and at designated hitter after Scott Podsednik and Jose Guillen depart after this season, it certain appears that this is more of a move to find a way to make Gordon fit better into their long-term plans.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
AL Central's Top Trade Chips
MLB Trade Rumors has posted it's "Top Trade Chips" article for the AL Central.
Some thoughts:
- Axisa speculates that the Indians might try and trade Jake Westbrook for prospects. Could they really get anything legitimate in return? And who would take his 11m salary? I'm sure the Indians would LOVE to be able to dump his contract and get players back, but I don't know if thats really a possibility. Prior to his injury, Westbrook was a consistent sub 4.00 xFIP pitcher but he missed all of 2009 and has really struggled so far this year.
- The speculation that the Royals could look to deal - well, essentially their entire outfield - sounds about right. If Jose Guillen continues to hit, I'm sure the Royals would jump at the chance to move his contract. If Rick Ankiel proves healthy and effective with the bat, he too could be moved with Mitch Maier taking over in center. And of course, I already touched on a possible David DeJesus trade.
- Speculation about the Twins moving Wilson Ramos and Glen Perkins seems just about right. Many have speculated that the Twins would deal him for a closer. I doubt that. High end catching prospects should be able to yield a much larger return than that. Maybe not by himself, but in a package, he should be used to return either an elite third baseman or starting pitcher. Perkins has fallen out of favor with management, and the Twins would love to trade him, but the way he's pitched lately, I don't know who would want him or why.
- As for the White Sox, Axisa names Tyler Flowers and Daniel Hudson as his two best, most advanced prospects, and he's right. But he's also right in the sense that you never have any clue what Kenny Williams is going to do. The White Sox could use some offensive help, but it's probably too early to begin speculation.
Some thoughts:
- Axisa speculates that the Indians might try and trade Jake Westbrook for prospects. Could they really get anything legitimate in return? And who would take his 11m salary? I'm sure the Indians would LOVE to be able to dump his contract and get players back, but I don't know if thats really a possibility. Prior to his injury, Westbrook was a consistent sub 4.00 xFIP pitcher but he missed all of 2009 and has really struggled so far this year.
- The speculation that the Royals could look to deal - well, essentially their entire outfield - sounds about right. If Jose Guillen continues to hit, I'm sure the Royals would jump at the chance to move his contract. If Rick Ankiel proves healthy and effective with the bat, he too could be moved with Mitch Maier taking over in center. And of course, I already touched on a possible David DeJesus trade.
- Speculation about the Twins moving Wilson Ramos and Glen Perkins seems just about right. Many have speculated that the Twins would deal him for a closer. I doubt that. High end catching prospects should be able to yield a much larger return than that. Maybe not by himself, but in a package, he should be used to return either an elite third baseman or starting pitcher. Perkins has fallen out of favor with management, and the Twins would love to trade him, but the way he's pitched lately, I don't know who would want him or why.
- As for the White Sox, Axisa names Tyler Flowers and Daniel Hudson as his two best, most advanced prospects, and he's right. But he's also right in the sense that you never have any clue what Kenny Williams is going to do. The White Sox could use some offensive help, but it's probably too early to begin speculation.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Royals Offense Batters Tigers Pitching
In a three game set at Comerica Park, last years AL Central cellar team, the Royals, took it to Tigers pitching. In three games the Royals amassed 45 hits - an average of 15 per game. That's an astounding number when you really think about it. For the series, the Royals hit .357 while drawing an additional 8 walks for an OBP of .396.
No single series, especially early in the season, can be taken too seriously. In many ways, hitters are still finding their timing, and pitchers are still honing their command. But for both clubs, this has to mean something, no matter how minute.
For the Royals, who's poo-poo platter of a lineup includes all of two players to post an OPS over .800 last year, it's a sign that even though they aren't going to hit many home runs, they can put runs on the board when they have everyone contributing. Especially promising has been the early season performance of Jose Guillen, who has been all but invisible the past two seasons. While it's early enough in the season that I need to remind people, "it's very early in the season," he could be for real. I'll elaborate more in a later post.
Overall, there is little hope for the Royals offense. They're running out below average hitters at at least six of the nine positions, and there isn't much immediate help on the way in the minors. If the Royals are going to hit this season, they'll need continued improvement from star first baseman Billy Butler, second baseman Alberto Callaspo, a strong bounce back season from Alex Gordon (if he ever gets healthy), solid production from David DeJesus, and the return of Mike Aviles circa 2008.
Even then, with everyone hitting on all cylinders, that offense isn't particularly good.
With all that being said, there is no way the Tigers are going to succeed this season if they can't get consistently strong starting pitching. In particular, they need their starters to get deeper into games to prevent their bullpen, which isn't particularly deep, from having to throw too many innings. While you can almost certainly count on ace Justin Verlander to get back on track, young guns Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer need to do so as well.
I've spoken about how essential it is that Detroit's starting pitching remain healthy given their lack of depth Well, now I'm compelled to state that it's every bit as essential that their top three starters be very effective. I'm confident that both Scherzer and Porcello, who were amongst the games best first year starters last season, will resume their strong pitching, but it is absolutely essential that they do.
No single series, especially early in the season, can be taken too seriously. In many ways, hitters are still finding their timing, and pitchers are still honing their command. But for both clubs, this has to mean something, no matter how minute.
For the Royals, who's poo-poo platter of a lineup includes all of two players to post an OPS over .800 last year, it's a sign that even though they aren't going to hit many home runs, they can put runs on the board when they have everyone contributing. Especially promising has been the early season performance of Jose Guillen, who has been all but invisible the past two seasons. While it's early enough in the season that I need to remind people, "it's very early in the season," he could be for real. I'll elaborate more in a later post.
Overall, there is little hope for the Royals offense. They're running out below average hitters at at least six of the nine positions, and there isn't much immediate help on the way in the minors. If the Royals are going to hit this season, they'll need continued improvement from star first baseman Billy Butler, second baseman Alberto Callaspo, a strong bounce back season from Alex Gordon (if he ever gets healthy), solid production from David DeJesus, and the return of Mike Aviles circa 2008.
Even then, with everyone hitting on all cylinders, that offense isn't particularly good.
With all that being said, there is no way the Tigers are going to succeed this season if they can't get consistently strong starting pitching. In particular, they need their starters to get deeper into games to prevent their bullpen, which isn't particularly deep, from having to throw too many innings. While you can almost certainly count on ace Justin Verlander to get back on track, young guns Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer need to do so as well.
I've spoken about how essential it is that Detroit's starting pitching remain healthy given their lack of depth Well, now I'm compelled to state that it's every bit as essential that their top three starters be very effective. I'm confident that both Scherzer and Porcello, who were amongst the games best first year starters last season, will resume their strong pitching, but it is absolutely essential that they do.
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