As extension talks with the Marlins break down, talk around the hot stove has turned to where Dan Uggla will be traded. It's also become apparent that the Tigers are a likely landing spot.
Let's delve into the numbers to try and get an idea of how Uggla would fit in at Comerica.
Dan Uggla is a terrible defender.
Uggla posted a -7.4 UZR/150 at second base last year. Consistently ranked as a poor defender at second throughout his career, he carries a career UZR/150 of -4.5 which is buoyed somewhat by his rookie year, where he posted a +5.7 mark, the only season he's been above average. Beyond that he's also rated poorly by Dewan's +/- system (-8) and the Defensive Runs Saved metric (-11). Among qualified defenders, he ranked 3rd worst in baseball in UZR/150, 6th worst in +/-, and tied for worst in DRS. So it should be pretty safe to say he's a bad defender.
Dan Uggla is a great offensive second baseman.
A career .263/.349/.488 hitter, Uggla posted a .287/.369/.508 triple slash line last year on the back of a .330 BABIP. Those marks ranked 4th in OBP and 2nd in SLG among all qualified second basemen. Overall, his .877 OPS was second to just Robinson Cano.
Overall, Dan Uggla is pretty good.
Overall, Uggla's combination of great offense and terrible defense still leave him rated as a very good player, as his 5.1 WAR last year indicated. That 5.1 was a career best, and probably not what should be expected on a yearly basis. But it shows that he has the upside to be one of the 30 best players in baseball in any given year. Indeed, that 5.1 WAR was tied for 26th best in baseball with one Joe Mauer.
Throughout his five full seasons, Uggla has been worth an average of 3.8 WAR per season. As a player who will enter the 2011 season as a 31 year old, in the prime of his career, it's likely that he'd be worth somewhere around that amount - and maybe slightly more - for the next couple seasons, provided his defense doesn't fall off any further.
A lot of really smart people think Scott Sizemore will be pretty good next year.
Looking at Bill James' projections for Scott Sizemore next year, you have to be excited as a Tigers fan. While Sizemore struggled mightily out of the gate in 2010, it's likely that was at least partially due to the knee injury he suffered during the off season. As the season went on, Sizemore really heated up and ended up hitting well in AAA to the tune of a .850 OPS. He then got a late season call-up and showed off why so many folks think so highly of his bat.
James is projecting Sizemore for a .277/.343/.438 line next year which I think is right around what I expect. That looks pretty similar to Uggla's career line .263/.349/.488, with a bit better average and a bit less power.
Dan Uggla will be expensive.
This is where things get tricky. Uggla just turned down a 4 year, 48m deal from the Marlins, which has created all the trade buzz. Presumably, he did so at least partially because he wants more money and/or more years. If Uggla wants more money, presumably by at least a couple million, the signing team could end up paying him around 14m per year.
If we can agree that a player is worth 4.25m per WAR (which is around average) in free agency, then even his average season is worth around 16m per season. He'd certainly be worth the money - as a second baseman. The question is, can he stick at second over the course of a 4 or 5 year deal?
If not and he has to move to third, or worse, first base or designated hitter, suddenly his offense isn't nearly as impressive when compared to his positional peers.
The next part of the equation is how much will he cost in terms of prospects? There aren't a lot of recent comparables in terms of high WAR middle infielders being dealt. I don't imagine Uggla would cost a Top-50 Prospect, but I also don't think they'd be out of line to seek a Top-75/100 type player in return. I'm fairly confident they could get a player of that caliber in return. The market for players with Uggla's skill set (good bat, bad glove) has diminished over the past five years, but not to that extent.
My guess would be that there will be enough interest and competition that the Marlins will be able to secure a Top-100 prospect. The Tigers however, have a pretty thin farm system. I'd assume that Jacob Turner, the Tigers top prospect would be out of reach. But someone like Brennan Boesch, Casey Crosby, or Daniel Schlereth could headline a deal.
Ultimately, Dave Dombrowski will have to decide if dealing players as well thought of as Crosby and Schlereth, in addition to forking out a sizeable contract is worthwhile. And that's not as cut-and-dry as it might seem.
Will Uggla be an upgrade over Sizemore? Probably. Will it be by a significant margin? Maybe. Maybe not. What is certain is that the Tigers would have to put out a significant outlay in both dollars and prospects to get Dan Uggla in stripes.
Showing posts with label Trade Speculation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade Speculation. Show all posts
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Twins Nearly Traded For Heath Bell?
But were scared off by character issues?
So says Scott Miller of CBS.
"The Twins, according to sources, had what they viewed as a workable deal to acquire Padres closer Heath Bell after Joe Nathan was hurt this spring but veered away because they were nervous over character issues. Bell's outspoken manner at times can grate on teammates."
First of all, what is a 'workable deal?' And if those character issues are enough to steer them away from Bell, what made them so intent on trading for Delmon Young who didn't exactly come with a sterling reputation? I know Matt Garza had his own issues, and I believe that Delmon gets an overly bad rap for his bat throwing incident. But at the same time, the guy threw a bat at an ump. There is also the issue of Torii Hunter, who's vocal style occasionally grated his teammates the wrong way.
No, the Twins aren't big on bringing in "character issue" guys, but who is? The Twins have/had a serious need at a position that most people (yours truly not included) view as awfully important and difficult to fill. How bad must Bell's issues have been to keep the Twins from pulling the trigger? My guess would be significant.
But despite Bell's vocal style, I can't recall ever once hearing his teammates grouse about his style. He certainly never threw a punch at anyone in the clubhouse as far as I know. And I know he hasn't pulled one of these.
I guess the whole idea of a deal falling apart on makeup just doesn't strike me as very believable.
So says Scott Miller of CBS.
"The Twins, according to sources, had what they viewed as a workable deal to acquire Padres closer Heath Bell after Joe Nathan was hurt this spring but veered away because they were nervous over character issues. Bell's outspoken manner at times can grate on teammates."
First of all, what is a 'workable deal?' And if those character issues are enough to steer them away from Bell, what made them so intent on trading for Delmon Young who didn't exactly come with a sterling reputation? I know Matt Garza had his own issues, and I believe that Delmon gets an overly bad rap for his bat throwing incident. But at the same time, the guy threw a bat at an ump. There is also the issue of Torii Hunter, who's vocal style occasionally grated his teammates the wrong way.
No, the Twins aren't big on bringing in "character issue" guys, but who is? The Twins have/had a serious need at a position that most people (yours truly not included) view as awfully important and difficult to fill. How bad must Bell's issues have been to keep the Twins from pulling the trigger? My guess would be significant.
But despite Bell's vocal style, I can't recall ever once hearing his teammates grouse about his style. He certainly never threw a punch at anyone in the clubhouse as far as I know. And I know he hasn't pulled one of these.
I guess the whole idea of a deal falling apart on makeup just doesn't strike me as very believable.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
AL Central's Top Trade Chips
MLB Trade Rumors has posted it's "Top Trade Chips" article for the AL Central.
Some thoughts:
- Axisa speculates that the Indians might try and trade Jake Westbrook for prospects. Could they really get anything legitimate in return? And who would take his 11m salary? I'm sure the Indians would LOVE to be able to dump his contract and get players back, but I don't know if thats really a possibility. Prior to his injury, Westbrook was a consistent sub 4.00 xFIP pitcher but he missed all of 2009 and has really struggled so far this year.
- The speculation that the Royals could look to deal - well, essentially their entire outfield - sounds about right. If Jose Guillen continues to hit, I'm sure the Royals would jump at the chance to move his contract. If Rick Ankiel proves healthy and effective with the bat, he too could be moved with Mitch Maier taking over in center. And of course, I already touched on a possible David DeJesus trade.
- Speculation about the Twins moving Wilson Ramos and Glen Perkins seems just about right. Many have speculated that the Twins would deal him for a closer. I doubt that. High end catching prospects should be able to yield a much larger return than that. Maybe not by himself, but in a package, he should be used to return either an elite third baseman or starting pitcher. Perkins has fallen out of favor with management, and the Twins would love to trade him, but the way he's pitched lately, I don't know who would want him or why.
- As for the White Sox, Axisa names Tyler Flowers and Daniel Hudson as his two best, most advanced prospects, and he's right. But he's also right in the sense that you never have any clue what Kenny Williams is going to do. The White Sox could use some offensive help, but it's probably too early to begin speculation.
Some thoughts:
- Axisa speculates that the Indians might try and trade Jake Westbrook for prospects. Could they really get anything legitimate in return? And who would take his 11m salary? I'm sure the Indians would LOVE to be able to dump his contract and get players back, but I don't know if thats really a possibility. Prior to his injury, Westbrook was a consistent sub 4.00 xFIP pitcher but he missed all of 2009 and has really struggled so far this year.
- The speculation that the Royals could look to deal - well, essentially their entire outfield - sounds about right. If Jose Guillen continues to hit, I'm sure the Royals would jump at the chance to move his contract. If Rick Ankiel proves healthy and effective with the bat, he too could be moved with Mitch Maier taking over in center. And of course, I already touched on a possible David DeJesus trade.
- Speculation about the Twins moving Wilson Ramos and Glen Perkins seems just about right. Many have speculated that the Twins would deal him for a closer. I doubt that. High end catching prospects should be able to yield a much larger return than that. Maybe not by himself, but in a package, he should be used to return either an elite third baseman or starting pitcher. Perkins has fallen out of favor with management, and the Twins would love to trade him, but the way he's pitched lately, I don't know who would want him or why.
- As for the White Sox, Axisa names Tyler Flowers and Daniel Hudson as his two best, most advanced prospects, and he's right. But he's also right in the sense that you never have any clue what Kenny Williams is going to do. The White Sox could use some offensive help, but it's probably too early to begin speculation.
The Tigers and the Angels Sittin' In A Tree...
Talking T.RA.D.E.
The Tigers are off to a good start, going 6-3 against the Royals and Cleveland. But one huge, glaring issue has been production behind the plate. And not just offensively. The Tigers catching tandem of Gerald Laird and Alex Avila have combined for just five hits in thirty five at-bats. There is little hope of a significant change either. Laird at his best is a league average offensive catcher, and he hasn't been that for the past couple seasons. Avila is strictly a platoon player at this point as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching.
Perhaps more discouraging, they've been abysmal defensively. This is particularly astounding given Laird's great defensive reputation. But after failing to make a play on a runner coming home in the final game of the Royals series, throwing a ball into right field on a sacrifice bunt against the Mariners, and throwing out just two of nine base stealers, well, things aren't going well.
While it's generally far too early to be talking about potential trades, the situation in Anaheim is as hot now as it's going to be. The Angels have an out of options catcher in Bobby Wilson that they know wont clear waivers, yet have no need to carry three catchers on the big league squad. Wilson's minor league production has been good, but not great and he projects as perhaps a slightly above average offensive catcher. But what Wilson does do well by all accounts, is play defense. He is a legitimate standout defender. However, with defensive stalwart Jeff Mathis already on the roster, the Angels don't really have a place for him.
The Angels one would assume, would be totally amenable to trading Wilson. He's a superfluous piece that doesn't add anything to the roster. yet he holds value around the league because solid catchers simply aren't easy to come by. The question Tigers GM Dave Dombrowksi would have to ask himself is, "will acquiring Bobby Wilson be worth the price to do so, if Laird can simply start playing his regular Gold Glove caliber defense?"
That's not an easy question to answer, but I'm leaning toward no. That's not because I believe Laird is an exceptional overall player (though he's far better than many give him credit for) but rather because the cost to acquire Wilson won't be mere pennies in all likelihood. There are simply too many teams in need of a solid catcher. The Red Sox spring to mind. But given the extreme degree of cost control with Wilson, he's a player all 29 other teams could make a play for.
The bigger, sexier trade possibility is for the Tigers to attempt to acquire Mike Napoli.
If you were to ask a collection of 100 baseball fans who the top three offensive catchers in baseball are, I doubt more than a half dozen would say Mike Napoli. But the simple facts are that the guy rakes. He hits, and he hits a lot. The WORST OPS Napoli has posted since 2006 was .794, and he posted a gaudy .960 in 2008. Yet Napoli has been largely relegated to back-up duty and yesterday he voiced his frustrations. For their part, the Angels seem willing to listen to offers.
The one thing holding Napoli back from elite status is his defense. He's a serious liability behind the plate, throwing out an average of just 23% of attempted base thieves.
I'm not prepared to speculate on what sort of package the Angels would be looking for in return, perhaps I'll revisit that at a later date when/if this goes anywhere and once I get an idea of exactly what the market looks like. Or at least, a batter idea. But simply looking at the Angels roster, you'd expect they'd be looking for help at third base, and in the rotation.
The Tigers are off to a good start, going 6-3 against the Royals and Cleveland. But one huge, glaring issue has been production behind the plate. And not just offensively. The Tigers catching tandem of Gerald Laird and Alex Avila have combined for just five hits in thirty five at-bats. There is little hope of a significant change either. Laird at his best is a league average offensive catcher, and he hasn't been that for the past couple seasons. Avila is strictly a platoon player at this point as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching.
Perhaps more discouraging, they've been abysmal defensively. This is particularly astounding given Laird's great defensive reputation. But after failing to make a play on a runner coming home in the final game of the Royals series, throwing a ball into right field on a sacrifice bunt against the Mariners, and throwing out just two of nine base stealers, well, things aren't going well.
While it's generally far too early to be talking about potential trades, the situation in Anaheim is as hot now as it's going to be. The Angels have an out of options catcher in Bobby Wilson that they know wont clear waivers, yet have no need to carry three catchers on the big league squad. Wilson's minor league production has been good, but not great and he projects as perhaps a slightly above average offensive catcher. But what Wilson does do well by all accounts, is play defense. He is a legitimate standout defender. However, with defensive stalwart Jeff Mathis already on the roster, the Angels don't really have a place for him.
The Angels one would assume, would be totally amenable to trading Wilson. He's a superfluous piece that doesn't add anything to the roster. yet he holds value around the league because solid catchers simply aren't easy to come by. The question Tigers GM Dave Dombrowksi would have to ask himself is, "will acquiring Bobby Wilson be worth the price to do so, if Laird can simply start playing his regular Gold Glove caliber defense?"
That's not an easy question to answer, but I'm leaning toward no. That's not because I believe Laird is an exceptional overall player (though he's far better than many give him credit for) but rather because the cost to acquire Wilson won't be mere pennies in all likelihood. There are simply too many teams in need of a solid catcher. The Red Sox spring to mind. But given the extreme degree of cost control with Wilson, he's a player all 29 other teams could make a play for.
The bigger, sexier trade possibility is for the Tigers to attempt to acquire Mike Napoli.
If you were to ask a collection of 100 baseball fans who the top three offensive catchers in baseball are, I doubt more than a half dozen would say Mike Napoli. But the simple facts are that the guy rakes. He hits, and he hits a lot. The WORST OPS Napoli has posted since 2006 was .794, and he posted a gaudy .960 in 2008. Yet Napoli has been largely relegated to back-up duty and yesterday he voiced his frustrations. For their part, the Angels seem willing to listen to offers.
The one thing holding Napoli back from elite status is his defense. He's a serious liability behind the plate, throwing out an average of just 23% of attempted base thieves.
I'm not prepared to speculate on what sort of package the Angels would be looking for in return, perhaps I'll revisit that at a later date when/if this goes anywhere and once I get an idea of exactly what the market looks like. Or at least, a batter idea. But simply looking at the Angels roster, you'd expect they'd be looking for help at third base, and in the rotation.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
A Case of the Davids.
David Lough doesn't carry a high profile - if you asked anyone but the most die-hard Royals fans who he is, it's doubtful they could tell you. But you should know who David Lough is. Not because he's the best prospect in the Royals system, not even close, but because he might be the closest to Major League ready, and because is development could allow the Royals to trade David DeJesus.
At 23 years of age, Lough experienced a breakout year in 2009 at AA, batting .331 with 24 extra base hits, including nine home runs. Lough focused primarily on his football career while in college, but his skills on the baseball field are developing quickly. Lough can steal a few bases, though he wont be a standout base stealer at the Major League level. By all accounts he plays an above average left field.
In his limited time so far at AAA Lough is performing ok, though not as well as he did in his AA stint. Of course it's extremely early in the season, far too early to be drawing any conclusions from his effort at this level. The one area that stands out for Lough to improve at the plate is in his discipline. It should seem obvious that this would be an area where he would struggle given that he didn't commit himself to baseball until just a couple years ago, but with 8 strikes outs and just one walk in 28 AAA at-bats, it's the one skill holding him back. That being said, I'm confident Lough can cut down on the strikes outs and with a little improvement in what has been a poor walk percentage throughout his career, become a league average bat.
All of which brings us back to the other David, the one you already know. Royals left fielder David DeJesus. The best left fielder no one cares about... Well, that last sentence isn't probably very accurate, I'm guessing there are actually quite a few contenders that DO care about David DeJesus and would like to see him in left field for them. If his development could make DeJesus, who isn't getting any younger, or more affordable into a legitimate trade chip, that could help the team acquire more much needed young pitching to add to the talented core the team is building up.
At 23 years of age, Lough experienced a breakout year in 2009 at AA, batting .331 with 24 extra base hits, including nine home runs. Lough focused primarily on his football career while in college, but his skills on the baseball field are developing quickly. Lough can steal a few bases, though he wont be a standout base stealer at the Major League level. By all accounts he plays an above average left field.
In his limited time so far at AAA Lough is performing ok, though not as well as he did in his AA stint. Of course it's extremely early in the season, far too early to be drawing any conclusions from his effort at this level. The one area that stands out for Lough to improve at the plate is in his discipline. It should seem obvious that this would be an area where he would struggle given that he didn't commit himself to baseball until just a couple years ago, but with 8 strikes outs and just one walk in 28 AAA at-bats, it's the one skill holding him back. That being said, I'm confident Lough can cut down on the strikes outs and with a little improvement in what has been a poor walk percentage throughout his career, become a league average bat.
All of which brings us back to the other David, the one you already know. Royals left fielder David DeJesus. The best left fielder no one cares about... Well, that last sentence isn't probably very accurate, I'm guessing there are actually quite a few contenders that DO care about David DeJesus and would like to see him in left field for them. If his development could make DeJesus, who isn't getting any younger, or more affordable into a legitimate trade chip, that could help the team acquire more much needed young pitching to add to the talented core the team is building up.
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