AL Central Injury Updates

It seems like yesterday, but I haven't done an Injury Update since the 27th. Apologies for that.

Indians:

- Grady Sizemore (Knee): Still no closer to returning from off season microfracture surgery at this point. It seems highly unlikely he opens the season.

- Trevor Crowe (Shoulder): Has been taking cortisone shots, but also remains doubtful for the start of the season.

- Michael Brantley (legs): Has been experiencing fatigue and pain in legs. Will take a few games off.

- Shin-Soo Choo: (Elbow) He's been experiencing some discomfort but as of now isn't expected to miss time.

- Jared Goedert (Oblique): Is expected to miss at least two weeks. Was a long-shot candidate for a backup infield position. Will open the season in AAA.

- Jason Donald (Hand): He was hit in the hand by a pitch. X-Rays negative. Should be back playing within a week.

- Anthony Reyes (Elbow): Threw a 36-pitch bullpen without any reported issues.

Up and Coming Third Basemen: Part 4

Yesterday we got the ball rolling on our latest series here at AL Central In Focus, a look into Jonathan Mayo's list of the Top 10 third base prospects for 2011. We've already profiled the Tigers Nick Castellanos (#10), the Twins Miguel Sano (#5), and the White Sox Brent Morel (#3).

The first two players were 18 and 17 years old respectively last year, and despite having raw talent in spades, are a long ways from the Majors. The third player on the list, Morel, has the makings of a solid everyday player who will provide high end, and maybe even elite level defense.

The last two players on this list however are cats of a rarer breed. They possess multiple refined skills without clear weaknesses and have demonstrated the ability to succeed in the high minors. They are both very projectable and highly talented and could challenge for all-star teams. With that in mind, lets delve into into a diamond in the Cleveland rough;

Lonnie Chisenhall

Shin-Soo Choo Reaches Agreement

Indians star right fielder Shin-Soo Choo agreed yesterday to a one year deal worth 3.995m during his first season of arbitration eligibility. Choo has been one of baseball's absolute best (and most under appreciated) players over the past two seasons, totaling 10.6 WAR. He's also been incredibly consistent posting near identical triple-slash lines in 2009 and 2010:

2009: .300/.394/.489 - 20HR - 86 RBI - 21SB
2010: .300/.401/.484 - 22HR - 90 RBI - 22SB

Travis Hafner's Misleading Second Half Surge

There has been much rejoicing in Cleveland since the All-Star break about the resurgent performance of Travis Hafner who has performed exceptionally well. Hafner has put together one of his best prolonged stretches in, well, a long time. All told, he's managed a .320/.388/.504 line that, if extrapolated over a full year, would be his best OPS since 2006.

The Indians are obviously an offensively challenged organization. Beyond Shin-Soo Choo (who might be the current reigning champion in the most-under-rated-player contest), and Carlos Santana, the Tribe lacks much in the way of legitimate firepower. Yes, players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt LaPorta have the potential to be solid supporting bats, but they need more. Cabrera's best season was a .799 OPS mark in 2009, and LaPorta has yet to realize the considerable potential many once saw in him.

An effective Hafner, even at a rate of production significantly less than that he produced during his peak years would be a significant boost to one of the weakest lineup in the American League. Indeed a lineup featuring Pronk at his second-half .892 OPS, Choo, and Santana could compete against most lineups provided the team could bring in a couple extra complementary bats to augment the top and bottom of the order.

Unfortunately, it appears that Hafner's second half resurgence is little more than a fluke resulting from an unsustainable .407 BABIP. This from a player with a career mark of .316. Sadly, nothing fundamental has changed for Hafner, his strikeout, walk, and line drive rates, along with his ISO remain essentially unchanged during the streak.

The Indians need to generate production from the middle of their lineup in a bad way. But they'll have to find some way other than relying upon Hafner, because he's not going to be the answer.

Resigning Shin-Soo Choo

Shin-Soo Choo is the best AL Central player the rest of baseball doesn't know about. If he played in New York, Boston, or Philadelphia, he'd be the sort of player the national media couldn't stop talking about. They'd brand him with all sorts of absurd labels, 'gamer,' 'a pros pro,' 'gritty,' whatever...

The truth is, the guy is just a stud.

Right field is a position where offense looms large. No position in baseball, save for first base, produced as much offense as right field, where the average player posted an OPS of .791.  The only two players with enough at-bats to qualify who posted better OPS numbers? J.D. Drew (.914) and Brad Hawpe (.903). That's it, that's the entire list. Drew led baseball with his mark, and Choo's .883 fell short by just 31 points. That's not an insignificant number,  but given that Drew is 34 and declining, and Choo just entering his prime at 27, I think we know how that trend is likely to go.

Bottom line, if Choo continues to hit the way he has the past two seasons, with minimal improvements, he will almost certainly be baseball's best right fielder in short order (yes, Justin Upton and Jason Heyward may have something to say about that...)

The Indians of course, realize this. GM Mark Shapiro wants to extend Choo, but is faced with the difficult task of negotiating with Scott Boras. The agent is notorious for advising his players t go through the arbitration process year-to-year to maximize their earnings potential instead of signing off on what are almost always team friendly extensions that give the player security through those years, and teams a sometimes sizable discount. Boras of course, is telling his client to avoid doing just that.

The Indians can afford to go year-to-year with Choo of course, but that's not an ideal situation necessarily. Choo is one of the Indians key building blocks, and arguably their best offensive player - and I don't mean that as a slight to Grady Sizemore who is an offensive force in his own right. But there simply aren't a whole lot of players who are going to give you above average defense, steal twenty bases, and have .900 OPS potential with the bat.

Fangraphs pegged Choo's 2009 season as being worth 22.9m on the open market. While there is little chance of Choo getting Mauer money on the free agent market on a long term deal, that doesn't mean he doesn't have considerable financial value.

So how much is Choo worth then? It can be a bit tough to peg, but I think he's likely worth something in the neighborhood of 16-20m over his three arbitration years. Typically teams then also want another year or two in team options. Given that those would be free agent years, Choo would likely get something much closer to true market value. Is it unreasonable to say he's worth 13-15m per year on the open market? Maybe a tad. It'll all depend on how he ages. If his legs hold up, sure he's probably worth that. If not, it could be a major mistake.

Therein lies the difficulty. That and that Boras guy.

Indians Roundup: Week One

The Indians got their season off to a fine start with a two games to one series victory over the White Sox as they took the final two games after a miserable start by opening day pitcher starter Jake Westbrook who was hammered by Chicago. Thankfully they managed to get back on track with a pair of nice wins, including a come from behind, extra innings victory in the rubber match.

The second series against the Tigers didn't go nearly as well as they were shut down by two very mediocre pitchers in Dontrelle Willis, and and Jeremy Bonderman., and then blew a huge lead in the final game as they tagged Tigers ace Justin Verlander for 6 runs, only to see the bullpen blow the lead as they allowed nine runs in the final four innings, finally losing on a game tying walk, followed by a game losing wild pitch. Heart breaking stuff.

Offensively, the Tribe really struggled as the only two players to break the .800 OPS mark were second baseman Luis Valbuena (.806) and third baseman Johnny Peralta (.810). Obviously players like Grady Sizemore (.759), and Shin-Soo Choo (.619) aren't going to continue to hit so poorly, and the offense should be better. Actually, with Sizemore, Choo, Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner and top prospects Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Santana, I think the Indians offense will be pretty good in 2011. But as of right now, that future is still a little ways off.

The issue with the Indians on a long-term basis is going to be pitching. They simply don't have much of it. I believe Justin Masterson and Fausto Carmona can be above average arms, and prospects Hector Rondon, and Carlos Carrasco show varying levels of promise, but is that enough? I'm not sold.

Ultimately, the Indians season is going to depend on how quickly the young bats develop. It won't be enough to help them win this year, but it can at least lay the groundwork for 2011 and it'll be a progression we'll be following closely here at AL Central in Focus.