Wrapping up the 2010 White Sox.

Major League Wrap Up

2010 was a pendulum-swing kind of season for White Sox. They opened poorly and there was talk of a fire-sale before they had even reached the trading deadline as there were rumors of AJ Pierzynski being on the block and much hand-wringing about the off season decisions of GM Kenny Williams. Particularly in regard to the teams designated hitters, Mark Kotsay (-0.7 WAR) and Mark Teahan (-0.6 WAR), who turned out to be terribly misguided signings. More on that later. After losing on June 8th, the team was 22-33 and 9.5 games out of first with little sign of a turnaround in their future.


But a turnaround happened to be EXACTLY what was in their future as the team went on a monster run from June 9th through August 7th, going 40-15 and turning a 9.5 game deficit into a 1.5 game lead - a lead that at one point swelled to as much as 3.5 games - while leapfrogging the Tigers and Twins. Despite losing starter Jake Peavy for the season, the White Sox continued to battle the Twins for the division until a decisive spate of games in late August and early September allowed the red-hot Twins to effectively salt the division away.


In between, there were inspired offensive performances from aging veteran and team leader Paul Konerko who had perhaps the best season of his career, posting career best marks in essentially every advanced metric, from OPS (.977), to wOBA (.415) and RC+ (160). Alex Rios also had a nice bounce-back season, posting a .791 OPS after tanking in 2009, and shortstop Alexei Ramirez turned in the best offensive season of any shortstop in what was a poor offensive group of AL shortstops while being hosed for the Gold Glove by one Derek Jeter.


On the mound, the Sox got another strong season from John Danks, who continues to cement himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the game, posting a 117 ERA+ while topping 200 innings for the second straight season, and posting another strong ERA (3.72). Kenny Williams also made an interesting move mid-season to deal off a struggling Daniel Hudson for the enigmatic Edwin Jackson who pitched brilliantly down the stretch for the Sox. In the bullpen Matt Thornton (164 ERA+) and J.J. Putz (154 ERA+) combined to form perhaps the best setup combination in all of baseball, despite late season struggles.



There were also some promising seasons from youngsters Sergio Santos and Chris Sale, both of whom lit the bullpen world on fire with 96mph fastballs and wipeout sliders they'd throw in any count en route to racking up K rates over nine. Sale, fresh out of college and the first player from the 2010 draft to reach the Majors, and Santos, a converted infielder, both struggled with their command to varying extents. But both have the talent to be fixtures in the rotation (Sale) and bullpen (Santos) for years to come. Brent Morel also looks to have some promise at third with strong defense and a solid bat, I'm expecting a very good 2011 for him, more on that another day.



As for the aforementioned DH situation, the decision to bring in the two was largely the byproduct of a General Manager giving in to Manager Ozzie Guillen's misguided desire to add more positional flexibility at a spot where positional flexibility is least worthwhile. One would assume Williams wont be making the same mistake again in 2011. Unfortunately for Williams, the Teahan deal will be the deal that keeps on giving, as he's owed 4.75m in 2011 and 5.5m in 2012. Why Williams felt compelled to offer Teahan, who hadn't had a legitimately productive season since 2007 a three year deal continues to baffle me.

The team also got underwhelming performances from closer Bobby Jenks, supposed staff ace Peavy, and at least to some extent, catcher Pierzynski and outfielder/DH Carlos Quentin.

Indians To Cut Payroll

After cutting payroll by almost exactly 20m from 81m in 2009 to 61m in 2010, it appears they'll do so again in 2011. Paul Hoynes is reporting that;

"Just how much money the Indians can spend on players has yet to be determined, but the payroll will drop from $61.5 million at the start of last season to between $40 million and $50 million."

Earlier this week, I made my first payroll projection for the 2011 Indians and had them at a division low 41.35m after arbitration raises are factored in. While Hoynes notes that there is no clear indication of how much room GM Chris Antonetti - entering his first full off season - will have to spend, it's clear that it likely wont be much more than about 9.5m, if my payroll calculations are correct. It could also be a fair amount less if Shin-Soo Choo ends up making more than 3.0m I have him pegged for in arbitration, or the final figure is closer to, say, 45m than 50m.

With that in mind, the Indians will be left in a position where they will be forced to either go into 2011 with little change from the roster currently in place - one that includes five players who project as regulars that posted OPS marks of .705 or lower in 2010. Yikes.

The payroll cut is likely at least partially the result of continued plummeting attendance as the Indians have seen attendance fall from just 28,097 per game during their 96 win 2007 season, to just 17,180 last year as the team experienced it's second straight season with fewer than 70 wins. With attendance down by 39%, a drop in payroll to 50m would be almost exactly on line (38.5%). Obviously also influential would be the corresponding loss of revenue from concessions and merchandise, amongst other factors.

Ultimately, this leads to a discussion of how winning effects revenues, and perhaps more importantly, precisely how cost-effective salary cutting measures such as trading star players (Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, CC Sabathia) as they become more expensive really are. But that's a discussion (both interesting and important) for another day.

What needs to be focused on now is precisely how the Indians will try and address their many weaknesses during the 2010-2011 off season. The team could stand to have more reliable options at first (where Matt LaPorta will be given every chance to become a fixture), second, third, and left field. On the mound, they need a legitimate ace and a solid innings eater. The bullpen could use a reliable right-handed setup option. But other than that...

Obviously it'll be far beyond the capacities of Mr. Antonetti to address all these concerns, but how he goes about it should be interesting. The Indians made a nice play by pulling Austin Kearns off the scrap hep last year, but they'd need to make many more this off season, and do so with far less room to operate. Will the Indians stick with the players they have and try and make a few savvy acquisitions? Or will they perhaps try and make a trade to clear salary or further their rebuilding efforts?

We won't know, and I'm not going to use this particular piece for speculation, but we'll find out a lot about how Antonetti and the rest of the Indians management feel about the players they have in place and how much work they still think they need to do.

David DeJesus to Athletics for Vin Mazzaro

Last week the Royals dealt outfielder David DeJesus, who had been on the market since the trade deadline, to the Oakland Athletics for a pair of pitchers including Major Leaguer Vin Mazzaro and minor leaguer Justin Marks.

Initally, I was a bit shocked to see this. The last time I wrote about DeJesus, back in September, I was questioning what was taking the Royals so long too exercise DeJesus' 2011 option. Well, they did, finally. When DeJesus wasn't moved at the deadline, my guess was that the Royals would hold onto him until the deadline next year when I expected he'd have a bit more value.

Instead, GM Dayton Moore traded him to the A's for a backend starter and an interesting, if unproven A ball lefty. To say I expected the Royals to be capable of getting a better return for DeJesus, an affordable, consistent 3.0 WAR player is saying too little. I think they got hammered in this deal.

It's not that Mazzaro is a terrible pitcher - but he's completely uninspiring.  His 4.27 ERA was largely the product of pitching in one of baseball's most pitcher friendly stadiums. His career strikeout (5.81), walk (3.75), homerun (1.31), and groundball (41.2%) are all below average, and weren't any better last year. As a soft throwing righty who will be 25 next year, he seems to have little upside.

The only benefit I see for the Royals is that they saved about 5.5m in the swap and perhaps finalized their opening day 2011 rotation. But for every benefit, there is an equal (or worse) drawback. First of all, if bringing in Mazzaro to finalize the rotation was a goal, they've now left themselves with a gaping hole in the outfield. Secondly, Moore has already made it clear he doesn't intend to reinvest that money and lastly, Mazzaro is pretty much the definition of a replacement level player.

The Royal's, who own baseballs best farm system should've been able to find someone easily capable of replicating his performance. If not from within, from the waiver wire or perhaps even the Rule V draft.

As for Marks, he is at least a somewhat intriguing. His rate stats in A ball were solid (good even), but given that he was drafted as a polished college pitcher finishing his junior season, his performance doesn't necessarily mean a ton. He's not a hard thrower, topping out in the low 90's and working 89-91 on the fastball, and doesn't show outstanding command. He might have a future in the back-end of the rotation or as a long reliever.

Realistically, the Royals just dealt one of their best players, and one of the leagues best trade chips for veritable peanuts. GM Dayton Moore deserves a ton of credit for building such a great farm system, but his free agent and trade philosophies continues to baffle me to no end.

Should the Tigers Trade For Dan Uggla?

As extension talks with the Marlins break down, talk around the hot stove has turned to where Dan Uggla will be traded. It's also become apparent that the Tigers are a likely landing spot.

Let's delve into the numbers to try and get an idea of how Uggla would fit in at Comerica.

Dan Uggla is a terrible defender.

Uggla posted a -7.4 UZR/150 at second base last year. Consistently ranked as a poor defender at second throughout his career, he carries a career UZR/150 of -4.5 which is buoyed somewhat by his rookie year, where he posted a +5.7 mark, the only season he's been above average. Beyond that he's also rated poorly by Dewan's +/- system (-8) and the Defensive Runs Saved metric (-11). Among qualified defenders, he ranked 3rd worst in baseball in UZR/150, 6th worst in +/-, and tied for worst in DRS. So it should be pretty safe to say he's a bad defender.

Dan Uggla is a great offensive second baseman.

A career .263/.349/.488 hitter, Uggla posted a .287/.369/.508 triple slash line last year on the back of a .330 BABIP. Those marks ranked 4th in OBP and 2nd in SLG among all qualified second basemen. Overall, his .877 OPS was second to just Robinson Cano.

Overall, Dan Uggla is pretty good.

Overall, Uggla's combination of great offense and terrible defense still leave him rated as a very good player, as his 5.1 WAR last year indicated. That 5.1 was a career best, and probably not what should be expected on a yearly basis. But it shows that he has the upside to be one of the 30 best players in baseball in any given year. Indeed, that 5.1 WAR was tied for 26th best in baseball with one Joe Mauer.

Throughout his five full seasons, Uggla has been worth an average of 3.8 WAR per season. As a player who will enter the 2011 season as a 31 year old, in the prime of his career, it's likely that he'd be worth somewhere around that amount - and maybe slightly more - for the next couple seasons, provided his defense doesn't fall off any further.


A lot of really smart people think Scott Sizemore will be pretty good next year.

Looking at Bill James' projections for Scott Sizemore next year, you have to be excited as a Tigers fan. While Sizemore struggled mightily out of the gate in 2010, it's likely that was at least partially due to the knee injury he suffered during the off season. As the season went on, Sizemore really heated up and ended up hitting well in AAA to the tune of a .850 OPS. He then got a late season call-up and showed off why so many folks think so highly of his bat.

James is projecting Sizemore for a .277/.343/.438 line next year which I think is right around what I expect. That looks pretty similar to Uggla's career line .263/.349/.488, with a bit better average and a bit less power.

Dan Uggla will be expensive.

This is where things get tricky. Uggla just turned down a 4 year, 48m deal from the Marlins, which has created all the trade buzz. Presumably, he did so at least partially because he wants more money and/or more years. If Uggla wants more money, presumably by at least a couple million, the signing team could end up paying him  around 14m per year.

If we can agree that a player is worth 4.25m per WAR (which is around average) in free agency, then even his average season is worth around 16m per season. He'd certainly be worth the money - as a second baseman. The question is, can he stick at second over the course of a 4 or 5 year deal?

If not and he has to move to third, or worse, first base or designated hitter, suddenly his offense isn't nearly as impressive when compared to his positional peers.

The next part of the equation is how much will he cost in terms of prospects? There aren't a lot of recent comparables in terms of high WAR middle infielders being dealt. I don't imagine Uggla would cost a Top-50 Prospect, but I also don't think they'd be out of line to seek a Top-75/100 type player in return. I'm fairly confident they could get a player of that caliber in return. The market for players with Uggla's skill set (good bat, bad glove) has diminished over the past five years, but not to that extent.

My guess would be that there will be enough interest and competition that the Marlins will be able to secure a Top-100 prospect. The Tigers however, have a pretty thin farm system. I'd assume that Jacob Turner, the Tigers top prospect would be out of reach. But someone like Brennan Boesch, Casey Crosby, or Daniel Schlereth could headline a deal.

Ultimately, Dave Dombrowski will have to decide if dealing players as well thought of as Crosby and Schlereth, in addition to forking out a sizeable contract is worthwhile. And that's not as cut-and-dry as it might seem.

Will Uggla be an upgrade over Sizemore? Probably. Will it be by a significant margin? Maybe. Maybe not. What is certain is that the Tigers would have to put out a significant outlay in both dollars and prospects to get Dan Uggla in stripes.

White Sox 2011 Payroll Estimate #1

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

C) Ramon Castro - 1.2m
1B)
2B) Gordon Beckham - 450k
3B) Brent Morel - 450k
SS) Alexi Ramirez - 2.75m
LF) Juan Pierre - 8.5m
CF) Alex Rios - 12.5m
RF) Carlos Quentin - 5.0m*
DH) Mark Teahan - 4.75m*

BN) Dayan Viciedo - 2.25m
BN) Omar Vizquel - 1.75m
BN) Brent Lillibridge - 450k
BN)

SP) Jake Peavy- 16.0m
SP) Mark Buehrle - 14.0m
SP) Edwin Jackson - 8.75m
SP) John Danks - 5.5m*
SP) Gavin Floyd - 5.0m

RP)
RP) Tony Pena - 1.5m*
RP) Sergio Santos - 450k
RP) Chris Sale - 450k
RP) Matt Thornton - 3.0m
RP) Scott Linebrink - 5.5m
RP) Bobby Jenks - 10.0m*

Total: 110.2m

Twins 2011 Payroll Estimate #1

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

C: Mauer - 23.0m
1B: Morneau - 14.0m
2B: Casilla - 800k*
3B: Valencia - 450k
SS: Hardy - 6.5m*
LF: Young - 5.5m*
CF: Span - 1.0m
RF: Cuddyer - 10.5m
DH: Kubel - 5.25m

BN: Butera - 450k
BN: Tolbert - 450k
BN: Plouffe - 450k
BN: Harris - 1.75m
BN:

SP: Liriano - 4.5m*
SP: Baker - 5.0m
SP: Blackburn - 3.0m
SP: Slowey - 2.5m*
SP: Duensing - 450k

RP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Perkins - 750k*
RP: Mijares - 450k
RP: Capps - 7.5m*
RP: Nathan - 11.25m

Buyout: Punto - 500k

Total: 106.0m

Tigers 2011 Payroll Estimate #1

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

C) Alex Avila - 450k
1B) Miguel Cabrera - 20.0m
2B) Scott Sizemore - 450k
3B) Brandon Inge - 5.5m
SS) Johnny Peralta - 5.25m
LF) Ryan Raburn - 1.5m*
CF) Austin Jackson - 450k
RF) Brennan Boesch - 450k
DH) Carlos Guillen - 13.0m

BN) Ramon Santiago - 1.25m
BN) Don Kelly - 450k
BN) Casper Wells - 450k
BN)

SP) Justin Verlander - 12.85m
SP) Max Scherzer - 450k
SP) Rick Porcello - 1.535m
SP) Armando Gallaraga - 1.5m*
SP) Phil Coke - 450k


RP) 
RP) Daniel Schlereth - 450k
RP) Zach Miner - 1.5m*
RP) Fu-Te Ni - 450k 
RP) Ryan Perry - 450k
RP) Joel Zumaya - 1.5m*
RP) Jose Valverde - 7.0m

MiLB Costs:
Jacob Turner - 1.175m

Total: 77.335m

Royals 2011 Payroll Estimate #1

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

C) Jason Kendall - 3.75m
1B) Billy Butler - 2.0m*
2B) Mike Aviles - 450k
3B) Josh Fields - 750k*
SS) Betancourt - 4.375m
LF) Alex Gordon - 2.0m*
CF) Mitch Maier - 450k
RF)
DH) Kila Ka'aihue - 450k

BN) Brayan Pena - 750k*
BN) Joaquin Arias - 450k
BN)
BN)

SP) Zack Grienke - 13.5m
SP) Gil Meche - 12.4m
SP) Luke Hochevar - 2.5m*
SP) Kyle Davies - 2.5m*
SP) Vin Mazzaro - 450k

RP)
RP) Blake Wood - 450k
RP) Dusty Hughes - 450k
RP) Sean O'Sullivan - 450k
RP) Kevin Pucetas - 450k
RP) Robinson Tejada - 1.5m*
RP) Joakim Soria - 4.0m

MiLB Costs:
 - Noel Agruelles 1.38m
- Aaron Crow: 1.0m

Total: 54.455m

Indians 2011 Payroll Estimate #1

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

C) Carlos Santana - 450k
1B) Matt LaPorta - 450k
2B) Luis Valbuena - 450k
3B) Jayson Nix - 450k
SS) Asdrubal Cabrera - 1.5m*
LF) Michael Brantley - 450k
CF) Grady Sizemore - 7.66m
RF) Shin-Soo Choo - 3.0m*
DH) Travis Hafner - 13.0m

BN) Lou Marson - 450k
BN) Trevor Crowe - 450k
BN)
BN)

SP) Fausto Carmona - 6.29m
SP) Justin Masterson - 450k
SP) Carlos Carrasco - 450k
SP) Mitch Talbot - 450k
SP) David Huff - 450k

RP) 
RP)
RP) Tony Sipp - 450k
RP) Jensen Lewis - 750k*
RP) Joe Smith - 750k*
RP) Rafael Perez - 1.0m*
RP) Chris Perez - 2.0m*

Total: 41.35m