Adam Dunn: Mechanics, Age or a Little of Both?

I have somehow managed to avoid discussing Adam Dunn this season mostly because I usually like to talk about either positive things or at least somewhat intriguing negative things. Adam Dunn might come close to the latter but my “hunch” all season was that his issues this year have had mostly to do with a combination of bad luck and old age. I assumed early on that he would probably at least right his production enough to be considered a “productive” DH but at this point it is clear that ship has sailed.

Recently I encountered several intriguing pieces on Adam Dunn. The first, was Bradley Woodrum’s article entitled Adam Dunn Should Hit Better – But Not Much Better, which largely confirmed at least part of my first suspicion, that Dunn has been unlucky. Woodrum uses a predictive model entitled ShHAP which uses career BABIP and the players K, BB and HR rates to make predictions of expected player performance. Those of you who have read previous articles of mine know that I have done very similar analysis of other players. Seeing as how Woodrum’s work would likely completely mirror any work I could do on the subject, it suffices to say that I agree with Woodrum’s conclusion. Dunn has been unlucky to an extent but his drop in production has largely resulted from a dramatically increased K rate, lower BB rate, and lower HR rate on fly balls. Even with a luck adjustment Dunn would not be expected to be a serviceable DH.

White Sox Sign Doug Davis

In an effort to shore up their starting pitching depth following the loss of Lucas Harrell to the waiver wire the White Sox have signed free agent Doug Davis to a Minor League contract. The 36 year old Davis is a 12 year veteran of the Major Leagues who started his career with the Rangers. He spent parts of five seasons with them, but is probably best known as a Brewer. Davis had two different stints with the team, first from 2003 through 2006, and he made 8 starts for the team last year.

In 2004 and 2005 Davis turned in a pair of very good seasons, posting ERAs of 3.39 and 3.84 respectively while throwing over 200 innings in each campaign. He's been decidedly less effective since those seasons however and after signing with the Cubs this offseason got torched for a 6.50 ERA over nine starts before being demoted.

Davis' peripherals however remain solid as he still sports a K rate over 7.00 with a solid 42.8% GB rate. He has walked far too many but it's certainly possible that, in a pinch, he could deliver some quality innings. And that's precisely what the White Sox are looking for - someone who could be relied upon in a pinch should injuries necessitate the team turning to it's 7th starter.

Diminishing Skills

What has happened to one of the most productive and consistent power hitter over the last 6 years, Adam Dunn? Even if he was to double his first half production during the second half he would not touch his expected production. Many people have speculated, from everyday regular fans all the way to future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, reasons why, from position switch to league switch to mechanical issues, but could diminishing skills be to blame?

In an earlier interview Dunn was quoted as saying “I would like to blame it on swinging at bad pitches, but I’m not doing that” at first glance that seems true; he is taking walks, with 46 so far this year. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different story. Dunn has been swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, in his career he has swung at pitches outside the strike zone at an average of 18.9%, this year though he has swung at 26.9% pitches outside of the strike zone. In addition, he is striking out at a 44% rate this year in comparison to a 33.4% rate for his career which indicates the 8% increase in pitches swung at outside the strike zone along with the 11% increase in strike outs would indicate he is not seeing the ball as well as he may think.

Tyler Flowers Gets The Call

Following the fastball that found Ramon Castro's throwing hand, resulting in him breaking that hand, I guessed that the White Sox would call up 25 year old prospect Tyler Flowers and indeed that is the case.

The right handed hitting Flowers who was acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade is an interesting prospect in many ways. A very big young man at 6'4" 240lbs, he's obviously rather over-sized for the position. For many years that size largely kept him from being an adequate defender, but the difference that I saw in him during spring training, coupled with what I've seen of him throughout this season have me believing that his defense has improved to the point where he could be adequate (but probably still a bit below average) on an every day basis.

Ramon Castro Breaks Throwing Hand

In the 8th inning of tonight's Twins, White Sox game with Jason Repko on second base, Twins second baseman Alexi Casilla squared around to bunt for a base hit, causing Sox catcher Ramon Castro to come out of his crouch. Casilla bulled the bat back, but Castro, perhaps distracted by the attempt missed catching the ball which instead sailed over his glove and hit him in his throwing hand. He immediately reacted in pain, but ran down the ball (which had sailed to the backstop) and made his way back to the plate before time was called.

The team immediately removed Castro from the game and took him down into the tunnel without so much as having him remove his catchers gear. A.J. Pierzynski would come on to replace Castro, record a leadoff double in the bottom of the 9th and come around to score the game winning run.

After the game it was announced that Castro had broken his right hand. While no timetable has been laid out yet, one would expect the injury to sideline Castro for at least 2-4 weeks. We also haven't received word on who the team will call up, but one would imagine that prospect Tyler Flowers could be the one who gets the call. Despite being extremely strikeout prone, Flowers has posted a .866 OPS at AAA so far this season, something that must be attractive to a White Sox team that's been rather starved for offense.

Astros Claim Lucas Harrell

It appears the White Sox have lost starter Lucas Harrell to waivers. The Astros have apparently claimed the 26 year old righty who made three starts for the Sox in 2010 (in 8 total appearances), and saw action in three relief appearances this year. That the White Sox would expose Harrell to waivers isn't necessarily a huge deal with the team still running it's six man rotation, but he was probably the organizations best in-house option should the rotation suffer another injury (starter John Danks is currently on the disabled list).

Harrell was lost when the team decided to try and pass him through waivers, and replace him with Hector Santiago who has been strong in his first two MLB outings following solid outings in both High A, and AA this season. With few other available options, it would appear that Santiago will become the White Sox defacto emergency starter should the need arise.

Phil Humber Continuing to Quietly Dominate

"Despite being nothing special himself (there is a reason he's been placed on waivers by so many teams in such a short time frame) [Philip] Humber is an experienced Minor League veteran with at least some Major League experience who should be able to provide replacement level production. I have no doubt that he could, in a pinch, come in and provide the White Sox with a handful of 'acceptable' starts, giving the team perhaps 20-25 innings of 5.00 ERA ball."

While it's generally ill-advised to highlight your own foolish comments, I feel compelled to do so for the sake of fairness. Those were my words when I wrote about the White Sox claiming of Philip Humber this past off season. It certainly wasn't my most prescient moment.

Juan Pierre: Unusual Left Fielder

The curious case of Juan Pierre almost requires that I reflect on his value. Pierre leads the league this season in negative value for qualified batters according to fangraphs with a -1.1 WAR. During the 2010 season, he did fare better maintaining a positive WAR due to his defense and a wOBA just above replacement level. However, that level of production was still below average for a major league LF.

The real intrigue is why anybody would want Juan Pierre to play LF and be a lead-off hitter for their team. Now he has some value, he could be an ideal defensive or base running replacement player for many teams. He could even squeak by as a workable center fielder, though still pretty near replacement level, hitting at the bottom of somebody’s lineup. However, Pierre playing a power position and hitting lead-off is not what I would have expected when he was a trade target of the Chicago White Sox during the 2009 off season. I think the White Sox's front office has made many savvy acquisitions and decisions but actively pursuing Juan Pierre was a bit confusing to say the least.

Central Arms On The Way Back

Yesterday the Tigers and reliever Joel Zumaya decided to go under the knife to try to determine why he was still experiencing pain in his surgically repaired elbow a month after the pain first manifested itself. But for other AL Central teams dealing with injuries to key arms, the news is better as those pitchers are getting close to returning.

In Toledo White Sox starter Jake Peavy made the last of his scheduled rehab starts today and will rejoin the team tomorrow. Elsewhere, Twins stater-turned-reliever Kevin Slowey, and Indians starter Carlos Carrasco are all nearing returns.

Mark Teahan, Reclaiming Third?

As I write this post, the White Sox are mired in one of their worst slumps in years, with a three game sweep at the hands of the surging Detroit Tigers leaving them having lost ten of their past eleven games. The entire offense it would seem is slumping all at the same time. This isn't unlike what has happened to the Twins throughout much of the early season.

Over their last 47 plate appearances each, the powerful tandem of Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko have hit .098 and .222 respectively. It's at times like this, when a teams offensive stalwarts are struggling that you need to have your complementary bats step up, but by in large, that hasn't happened. While my colleague Colin McLaughlin highlighted the early season brilliance of Carlos Quentin yesterday, there has been precious little support behind him.

Morning In The Central

Indians Links:

- Cleveland Indians Chatter: Choo and Santana Off To Slow Starts

- Let's Go Tribe: Farm Fresh

- The Tribe Daily: Just a Car Running on Fumes

  
Royals Links:

- Royals Authority: Catch Your Breath Monday

- Kings of Kauffman: Don't Mess With Texas

Tigers Links:

- Bless You Boys: An In Depth Look At Justin Verlander's 1000th Strikeout

- Detroit Tigers Scorecard: Ryan Raburn Raking

- Tiger Tales: Tigers Sweep White Sox

- Old English D: The Other Guys

Twins Links:

- The Bat Shatters: A Break In The Clouds

- Nick's Twins Blog: Three Bagger: Morneau, Nathan, Span

- North Dakota Twins Fan: Playoff Expansion and the Twins


White Sox Links:

- Beer Leaguer: Rancid Offense Reigns

- South Side Sox: Danks Will Have To Help Himself

Carlos Quentin: I'm Not a Player, I Just Crush a Lot.

The headline really says it all. Carlos Quentin has some pretty astounding power. As I watched him swiftly deposit two hard belt high Justin Verlander fastballs deep into the bleachers of Comerica Park, all I could really think was “Wow, THAT is some power!”

CQ hit 36 home runs in 2008 during a season that was cut short by injury. He followed that up with 21 and 26 home run seasons that were also somewhat impeded by injury.

Morning In The Central

Royals Links:

- Royals Authority: How Often Do Good Relievers Have Bad Outings?

- Kings of Kauffmann: More April Drama Leads to Royals Win

Tigers Links:

- Bless You Boys: Are Young Tigers Prospects In Over Their Heads?

- Detroit Tigers Scorecard: The Phil Coke Debate

Twins Links:

- Over The Baggy: Kubel's Early Adjustments Pay Offensive Dividends

- North Dakota Twins Fan: Thome's History of Slow Starts

- Twinkie Town: State Of Play


White Sox Links:

-Future Sox: Is Trayce Thompson Primed For a Breakout Year?

- South Side Sox: Teahan Making Plays, and a Play For Third

Morning In The Central

Indians Links:

- Indians Prospect Insider: Defense is Bartalone's Calling Card

- The Cleveland Fan: Core Building Exercises

Royals Links:

- Kings of Kauffman: Looking Forward to the Future: Don't Ignore the Present

- Royals Authority: Kyle Davies Is Historically Awful

- Royally Speaking: Royals Need To Move Kila

- 14 For 77: Making a Move

Tigers Links:

- Bless You Boys:

- Tiger Tales: A Positive Game From Porcello

Twins Links:

- Nick's Twins Blog: Return On Investment

- North Dakota Twins Fan: Top Five Twins Prospects So Far in 2011


White Sox Links:

- White Sox Observer: Peavy's Diagnosis Is Apparently the Best Case Scenario

Jake Peavy Makes First Rehab Start

At one point this spring it looked likely that White Sox starter Jake Peavy (can I call him a ace anymore?) looked as though he might be able to make a rather impressive return from his torn lat muscle. Initial estimates suggested that Peavy wouldn't be ready until early May at the soonest, but Peavy was trying to defy those expectations, and perhaps even looking at being ready for opening day.

Unfortunately after suffering shoulder soreness, later revealed diagnosed as tendinitis, his return date was once again pushed back. There was a small measure of controversy surrounding the diagnosis as Peavy had tried to pitch through it without alerting the team or it's medical staff to his pain. That's something that's become a disturbing tendency for some. While many appreciate Peavy's tough guy mentality, his willingness to pitch through too much pain, to the point of causing further injury has become a bother.

White Sox DFA Lastings Milledge

This move comes as a bit of a surprise. I wrote about how much I liked the Lastings Milledge signing in it's wake, and in brief time, it's worked well. But with the White Sox desperate for relief help after exhausting their bullpen the past couple games against the Royals, they're decided to designate him for assignment - where he'll almost certainly be lost to waivers - to bring up Jeff Gray.

The 30 year old Gray has spent parts of three seasons with the Athletics and Cubs, working out of those clubs bullpens. A fastball-slider pitcher who has averaged 93.7 on his fastball, he pairs a hard slider in the mid to upper 80s. Gray's stuff profiles as swing-and-miss but so far it hasn't translated to the Majors as he's managed just 6.02 strikeouts per nine so far.

The move signals just how much the team values Brent Lillibridge and his ability to come in as a pinch runner. It also likely means that Dayan Viciedo will not be headed back to the minors once he's recovered from his broken finger, but will rather serve as a bench bat while occasionally seeing time in the outfield.

At first blush I find the move perplexing. The team seems to have little desire to utilize Lillibridge in any capacity beyond defensive replacement and pinch runner, which stands to reason, he's is a very poor hitter. Yet Lillibridge probably had a better chance of clearing waivers than Milledge and his skill set is far easier to replace than that of the former Mets prospect.

Adam Dunn Has Appendectomy

It's been a big week for appendectomies in baseball as Cardinals left fielder Matt Holiday, and now White Sox designated hitter Adam Dunn have both undergone the procedure - which is always curiously referred to as an "emergency" surgery. Is there such a thing as a non-emergency appendectomy? 

Dunn was off to a great start for the White Sox, having gone 4-14 with a double, homerun, and four walks in his 19 plate appearances. He's expected to miss around five days but should be able to return after that. If so he'll miss tonight's final game against the Royals, followed by the teams three game set against the winless Rays, and perhaps one or more games of the Athletics series.

While Dunn will miss time, the team is unlikely to place him on the disabled list and will instead go with Mark Teahan as their primary designated hitter, though Lastings Milledge could see time against lefties as well. A move could always be made later to place him on the DL should he be unable to recover sooner.

Central Scouting Notes

- There was only one steal attempted against Carlos Santana who has made a name for himself as an offensive catcher in the Indians/ChiSox series. That was Brent Morel in the 6th inning of the Apr. 2nd contest and I had Santana at 1.94. Not great, but not awful either. His throw was high and went into center but it wouldn't have mattered as Carlos Carrasco's pitch gave him almost 0 chance.

- I had Royals rookie Aaron Crow at 91-93 on his fastball with good late sink. Also showed a hard slider at 85-86 that was legit plus. Pitch was always good but consistency was the issue. Control was good not great.

Fellow Royals rookie Tim Collins, the diminutive 5'7" lefty (I'm pretty much obligated to mention his stature every time I mention him...) also looked good. Fastball 91-93 but his lack of height hurts his plane and the pitch is fairly straight. Loved his changeup at 81-82 with good sink and he showed good feel for his 11/5 curve at 73-74. Hitters struggle to pick him up with his funky delivery and his stuff is legitimate plus. Started two batters with the curve and another with the FB, so he'll throw anything at any time.

He pitched the final three innings against the Angels last night, allowing just two hits and racking up 5Ks. It was a dominant performance from any bullpen pitcher, let alone a rookie, and it gave his team time to finish the comeback with yet another walk-off win. A must-see outing for any fan of the Central.

- Alex Gordon's bat looks quicker than the last couple years. Too early to read into the results (which have been good) but you wonder if he might be truly healthy for the first time in a long time.

- Edwin Jackson's slider looked really sharp, but his command was as spotty as ever. I wrote about him quite a bit this off season and I'm far from sold on his Chicago makeover, but if he can miss bats at the rate he did tonight, he can play up from his previous numbers.

- Scott Kazmir hasn't had it for a couple years, and it may have gotten worse. FB at 85 with no command, fringy changeup are all that remain.

- Fausto Carmona's mechanics were a mess in his first start. He was opening up way too fast and left everything up. Anyone in Cleveland or Chicago saw the results. The Sox cleaned his clock. Stuff-wise though he looked fine. Hopefully a bullpen session can get him back on track.

- The Royals ran a TON in spring training and they've taken it into the season. Today they abused Jeff Mathis, a plus defender by stealing successfully five times despite Mathis showing solid pop times in the 1.80-1.85 range. Pitchers we're responsible for a lot of that.

- Francisco Liriano doesn't look right. Slider is still very sharp at 84-87 and legitimate ++ pitch, but his fastball velocity was down to 89-93 and he threw the pitch just 37 times, even though it was the only pitch he had even passable control over. Really went heavy to the slider/changeup. Stuff is still great, command isn't there right now. Be interesting to see how he progresses.

- Joe Nathan doesn't have his velocity (FB at 89-92) or his command. Got the save but threw 31 pitches to get through the inning. His best out pitch, his slider (86-88 tonight), just wasn't there at all either in movement or location. Went to his curve (80-81) more than we saw in the past.

- Travis Snider's 'stache is all kinds of dirty.

- Tsuyoshi Nishioka's range is 60-65 (very good) especially to his left. Made a couple errors but I think that's more nerves than anything. Should be a legit + defender and definitely has the range for short.

- J.P. Arencibia has a nice short, quick swing and quiet stride - can drive the ball well. But we all knew that. Looked better behind the plate than advertised.

- Miguel Cabrera let some scoopable balls not find the mitt, but the bat is still terrifying. The big question I have is will he stay back like he did last year and use the whole field. He really started keeping that front shoulder in last year and he became a whole other kind of hitter.

- Max Scherzer had some of the same issues as Liriano. A fastball that wasn't all there at 89-92 and command that kept the ball in the dangerous part of the plate. Mechanics are a mess. Seems to be the case with a lot of pitchers this spring.

White Sox Part With John Shelby - A Lesson In Tools v Skills and Upside v Projectability

Yesterday a minor trade was made that most folks won't care about in which a 26 year old who'd struggled in back-to-back seasons at AA was dealt off to the Rays for cash consideration. Happens all the time. But in this case it was a toolsy 5th round pick named John Shelby. Shelby put himself onto the prospect map with a phenomenal 2007 season, posting a .868 OPS in A ball and prompting Baseball America to add him to their 2008 White Sox Top-10 Prospects list. In their description of him they said;

"Shelby has the best combination of power and speed in the system. Though he's only 5-foot-10, he's strong for his size. He adds to his plus speed with good baserunning instincts and could develop into an even bigger stolen-base threat. He's improving in center field and has an average arm."

White Sox Sign Dexter Carter

When the White Sox made their move to acquire Padres ace Jake Peavy in 2009, one of the key players headed to the Padres was Sox prospect Dexter Carter. Despite being a 22 year old in Low A Carter was coming off 118 dazzling innings for the Sox, with impressive 10.91K and 2.44BB rates. Unfortunately for the Padres, whatever he had figured out with the Sox fell apart after the trade as he would never again display the same level of dominance, even though he never was pushed beyond A ball.

After a season and a half of disappointment, the Padres gave up on him.

The White Sox for their part seemed happy to welcome him back. The 6'6" righty has struggled throughout his career with his mechanics which has made him inconsistent. But he features a mow 90s fastball, changeup and curve and his tall frame gives him good plane on this pitches. At 24 and not yet having seen AA Carter's chances of reaching the Majors are slim, but if the Sox can help him rediscover his early 2009 form, they might have something.