Fielder’s Fielding Impact on the Tigers

The recent acquisition of Prince Fielder has many present and future implications for the Tigers. One of the primary topics of conversation that developed from that signing and the subsequent reassignment of Miguel Cabrera to 3b is the Tiger’s defense. The fair assumption that most have been making is that the change from Cabrera to Fielder at first base hurts the team defense, that the change from Inge/Kelly to Cabrera at 3b hurts the team defense, and that generally, the team defense is now inferior to where it was a year ago.

Everyone seems to be expecting the worst with this change, specifically for Doug Fister and Rick Porcello, two groundball heavy pitchers. I have heard the sentiment expressed that the Tigers now have three DHs (Cabrera, Fielder, and Young). Highly respected baseball people have wondered aloud just how long the Tigers can ‘survive’ with this arrangement. Many have suggested that Cabrera is very likely to not last at 3B over the course of the entire season. Is it really doom and gloom for the Tigers this season?

Jacob Turner and the Tiger's Aggressive Approach

Recently, the current group of management with the Detroit Tigers has been given a reputation of rushing pitchers to the major leagues. This reputation seems to have been largely garnered on the back of Rick Porcello’s early debut several years ago and is being continued with the possible aggressive promotion of Jacob Turner. As a statistician, this label seems to be more than a little unfair. After all, rarely would I take two specific cases and extrapolate that into a ‘theme’ being displayed by a front office.

It is hard to argue that Rick Porcello was not ‘rushed’. He was dominant in his one full season in the minors in his first year in pro ball straight out of high school and saw full time major league action the very next year. However, his first year was high A ball, and he only threw 125 innings, and he averaged just over 5 k/9, and you get the point. Rick was highly talented compared to other A ballers, compared to other 19 year olds, but not really compared to major leaguers. He had a solid low 90’s four seam fastball, sinker, a slow looping curve and change up at 19, and about 4 years later he basically is the same pitcher with a par slider added to the mix. Porcello was a good prospect to be sure but it’s hard to imagine a guy who strikes out only 5 guys per nine inning in high A obtaining any kind of immediate or even long term success in the majors without seeing more at some point.

Jose Valverde: Adjusting Value Based on Leverage

In an interesting week on fangraphs.com, Jack Moore published several interesting and probably long overdue articles on reliever leverage and how it pertains to their value as indicated by their free agent salary (Overdue generally, not from Jack Moore specifically). Through these articles, Jack Moore analyzes WPA as a possible measuring tool for determining reliever salary as opposed to the conventional $/WAR measures because relievers, unlike other players, largely have their leverage determined for them by coaching decisions. As a result, relievers signed to be put in high leverage situations by their coaching staffs probably have their value unfairly determined to be albatross by traditional measures.

With this new and probably superior way of thinking of high leverage relievers available to us, it makes sense to analyze reliever performance incorporating both expected performance in terms of WAR and in terms of leverage. Jose Valverde, in particular, is an interesting case from a number of different perspectives. Valverde has outperformed his expected FIP and xFIP over the course of his career by a considerable margin, one that probably cannot be ignored. In addition, Valverde’s actual value to the Tigers must be analyzed in terms of his leverage as well as traditional value measurements.

Tigers Designate Ryan Perry, Recall Alburquerque

When the Tigers placed bullpen phenom Al Alburquerque on the disabled list with inflammation in his pitching elbow it was a frightening moment indeed as diagnosis' like elbow inflammation, or elbow/forearm tenderness have a nasty way of turning into, 'will undergo Tommy John surgery.'

The diagnosis is still worrisome for me, and should be for fans of the Tigers as well but it's obviously good to see that the team did the right thing, placing him on the disabled list immediately instead of asking the player to try and work through it. Not that a fifteen day respite necessarily cures anything if something is seriously wrong, but it's the proper amount of caution in this circumstance.

Carlos Guillen Set to Make His Return

In general this years Tigers team hasn't struggled for offense, they're 5th in the AL in runs scored (8th in MLB) and have averaged 4.46 runs per game. Strong marks. They are however extremely top-heavy with five regulars posting OPS marks of .820 or better - one of just three teams that can make the claim.

The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.

For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.

Would Calling Up Jacob Turner Be The Right Decision?

In truth, this is really a three-piece discussion with the first question being: how did we get to this point?;  the second question being: is Jacob Turner the best pitcher available to fill the role of 5th starter on the Tigers?; and the third question being: is he ready to get Major League hitters out?

Let's start with the first question: How did we get to this point?

Tigers Demote Furbush, Recall Worth

A tough day for Tigers rookie Charlie Furbush all around today. Making his second start of the season today Furbush got shelled by the Royals, allowing nine hits and a pair of walks in just two and two thirds innings of work. It's likely that the damage could've been lessened had shortstop Ramon Santiago not allowed what should've been the final out of the third inning to scoot between his legs - after which the Royals pounded out five more runs (all unearned of course) on top of the four they had put up earlier in the game.

Tonight the Tigers have announced that they've optioned him back to AAA and recalled utilityman Danny Worth. Much like the demotion of Royals pitcher Danny Duffy however, the move could quite possibly have been nothing more than the teams desire to keep Furbush on his regular schedule through the All-Star break.

Swapping Problems Isn't a Solution

When the Tigers announced that Phil Coke would be a member of the teams starting rotation following the 2010 season, I was skeptical. Coke had worked primarily as the stereotypical fastball/slider reliever during his time with the Yankees before mixing in his changeup last year when he was traded to Detroit and it was effective enough (1.40R/C - runs above average/100 pitches).

Still, the thought of moving someone who had worked largely with the platoon split - while showing a significant platoon split - to the rotation seemed risky. Coke posted a 32K/8BB ratio in 28.2 innings vs lefties last year, but had a 21K/18BB ratio in 36.0 innings vs righties, which should've let anyone paying attention know that he would struggle mightily in the rotation, where he can't be protected from seeing twice as many right handers as left handers.

Tigers Option Danny Worth, Activate Brandon Inge

Today the Tigers will get back one of their most beloved, and reviled players, Brandon Inge. A fan favorite, as well as whipping boy, Inge has been out for the past 20 games with mononucleosis (mono) which was likely at least somewhat to blame for his hideous .211/.279/.286 triple-slash over his first 181 plate appearances.

For his career Inge is a .236/.306/.390 hitter who's offensive value comes almost exclusively from his ability to crack 15-20 home runs per season as he neither hits for average, nor gets on base at an enticing rate. In addition to his home run power, Inge has generally played plus defense at third base, with a +5.7 career UZR/150. It's worth noting however that his UZR slipped below the 5.0 level for the first time since 2005 last year (3.5), and is at just 2.7 in 2011.

If Inge can't continue to be a legitimately plus defender, his inability to get on base at a respectable rate will render him an essentially worthless player.

The move will give the Tigers back their regular third baseman, while utility infielder Danny Worth will be optioned back to AAA. Worth was given just 31 plate appearances in Inge's absence but made the most of them, putting together a .310/.355/.379 line. He'll likely be the first call-up should the team suffer another infield injury.

Tigers Demote Adam Wilk, Recall Ryan Perry

After a solid 2010 campaign, the Tigers and their fans were undoubtedly hoping that young, hard throwing righty Ryan Perry could build on his performance and leap into the discussion of elite setup men. A classic hard throwing (94-95mph) fastball/slider reliever, Perry instead struggled mightily to open this season, boosting his strikeout rate to an impressive 8.71, but simultaneously displaying horrendous control, walking nine batters in his 10.1 innings of work.

How much of those struggles were related to an infected eye that was originally thought to be the by-product of allergies this summer is uncertain, though it seems likely that a pitcher like Perry, who has never had great control, but also never experienced control issues this bad, was certainly adversely affected by the issue. With his control back (1.65BB/9 in 16.1 AAA innings of work) Perry and his powerful fastball/slider combo seem ready to rejoin the Tigers bullpen and hopefully help add further strength to a unit that already features three high quality arms.

For his part, the left handed Adam Wilk pitched about as well as could be expected. Despite possessing underwhelming raw stuff (his fastball works in the 87-88mph range) and getting hit fairly hard (5.91 ERA), he gave the team 10.2 innings, mostly in long relief, and flashed strikeout and walk rates that could play long-term in a long-relief role or as a lefty specialist. He'll head back to AAA where he can continue to improve and hopefully return one day.

The Real Brennan Boesch Has Stood Up

In examining Brennan Boesch's 2010 season, one sees the easy study in contrast - the scorching hot .387 BABIP fueled start to his season in which he raced off to a .345/.397/.593 start - and the inevitable crash that followed that.

Prior to this season I examined that dichotomy in detail and did my best to project what we could expect from Boesch during the 2011 season, eventually determining that he could become a .250/.330/.500 type of bat. So far in 2011 Brennan has produced a .297/.356/.482 that is higher on batting average and on base percentage, and lower on slugging that I expected, but still right on the OPS line (I projected .830, he's at .838). He's still been a bit BABIP lucky, posting a .318 mark, the difference however, is in the degrees.

Tepid Optimism for Alex Avila

Alex Avila has been a more than pleasant surprise for the Detroit Tigers this season at catcher. After disappointing starts to the season from a number of Tigers, Alex Avila has done his best to keep the team afloat on offense. Through 204 plate appearances Avila has a .907 OPS with 9 home runs, 13 doubles, and even 3 triples. He currently has a .258 ISO and an absurd .389 wOBA both marks are first for qualified catchers by a mile (among unqualified catchers his ISO is second to Mike Napoli).

Needless to say, Avila has been one of, if not the top backstop in the MLB the first two months of the season. The question then becomes, can he keep it up? At first blush the answer would seem to be definitely not. This is the same guy coming off of a wOBA of .297 in his first full season and .112 ISO, numbers on the lower side even for a catcher. As a result, his improvement this season is well beyond any kind of reasonable expectation of improvement anybody could have had for him coming into this season.

Tigers Trade Scott Sizemore To Athletics

I'll never quite understand why teams do this, and by "this," I mean trade position players with a chance to be productive regulars for mediocre bullpen arms. To be certain, not all teams make this mistake, but far too many GMs do, and now you can add the Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski to this list.

By trading Scott Sizemore, a promising bat at a historically offensively weak position for a middle-of-the-road left handed relief arm like that of David Purcey, the Tigers are taking a rather significant gamble. At 26 years old, Sizemore isn't particularly young, but he has consistently throttled Minor Leaguer pitching - though he has struggled in his sporadic Major League time. Purcey on the other hand is a 29 year old lefty who's only tangible strength is a somewhat above average strikeout rate (7.72/9IP). Beyond the K rate, he walks too many (4.50/9IP), and is an extreme fly ball pitcher (31.6%). He has a career 5.17 ERA against a 4.79 career xFIP.

Sizemore Growing Into Role as Everyday Player

2010 was supposed to be Scott Sizemore's coming out party. The fates however, had other plans. During the off season, Sizemore broke his ankle, and though he was ready to play on opening day, he was nowhere near ready for the challenge of the Major Leagues. Instead of heading into the season, and the greatest challenge of his professional career with a full off season of preparation, he was going in cold.

For an accomplished MLB veteran, such a return would be easier to make. They have a better idea of what to expect, they're better acclimated to the stresses of a Major League season. Sizemore however was essentially running in blind. It sure showed. On offense Sizemore struggled to make contact, on defense he looked slow, and unsure of himself. He was sent down after his disappointing start but caught fire in AAA, earning a pair of callups that helped him build some confidence through the season.

Justin Verlander Throws Second Career No Hitter

Justin Verlander became only the 30^th pitcher in the history of baseball to have thrown multiple no hitters in his career. The truly amazing thing is that Verlander has two no hitters at the age of only 28. It was the 271^st no hitter in major league history, an average of about two per year since the first official no hitter by Joe Borden of the Philadelphia White Stockings in 1875. Verlander is one of only three active pitchers with more than one no hitter, the other two being Roy Halladay and Mark Buehrle.

Only five pitchers in baseball history have more than 2 no hitters, Larry Corcoran (3), Bob Fellar (3), Cy Young (3), Sandy Koufax (4), and Nolan Ryan (7). In fact, Justin Verlander has more no hitters than the New York Mets and San Diego Padres.

Prospect Profile: Lester Oliveros

Lester Oliveros

Profile: RHP - 5'11" - 225lbs -BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 22


Repertoire:


• FB 93-95: Has added more run in recent years, making this more than just a hard offering. (55-60)
• SL 86-88: Tight rotation and late break make it hard to pick up. Swing-and-miss offering. (55-65)
• CH 86-88: Show me pitch, lacks feel, movement, differential (35-40)

Joel Zumaya to Have Surgery

Talk about a situation that has deteriorated. When the Tigers first made the decision to sit down Joel Zumaya a week into spring training, it was expected that he wouldn't miss much time. They thought the issue was simply broken scar tissue from his off season elbow surgery. While this can be painful, it's hardly abnormal, and shouldn't have been a significant harbinger of woe.

Then the diagnosis changed - to inflammation. A bit worse, but again, perfectly normal following surgery.

Has Scott Sizemore Really Been Freed?

Both I and my Central in Focus colleague have made arguments at various points this spring for why we felt that Scott Sizemore was an inherently better option at second base than the man who won the job out of spring training, Will Rhymes. Our rationals are different in their own nuanced ways, but ultimately boil down to one relatively simple, inalienable fact: Sizemore's skill set simply projects far better over the long-term.

While he was held back to open 2010, likely at least partly due to the broken ankle he suffered in the off season, he heated up through the summer, punishing AAA pitching to the tune of a .850 OPS, eventually earning a September call up. During that final stint Sizemore played in twelve games, hit .308, and launched a pair of home runs en route to a .934 OPS.

A small sample size tease.

Morning In The Central

Indians Links:

- Cleveland Indians Chatter: Choo and Santana Off To Slow Starts

- Let's Go Tribe: Farm Fresh

- The Tribe Daily: Just a Car Running on Fumes

  
Royals Links:

- Royals Authority: Catch Your Breath Monday

- Kings of Kauffman: Don't Mess With Texas

Tigers Links:

- Bless You Boys: An In Depth Look At Justin Verlander's 1000th Strikeout

- Detroit Tigers Scorecard: Ryan Raburn Raking

- Tiger Tales: Tigers Sweep White Sox

- Old English D: The Other Guys

Twins Links:

- The Bat Shatters: A Break In The Clouds

- Nick's Twins Blog: Three Bagger: Morneau, Nathan, Span

- North Dakota Twins Fan: Playoff Expansion and the Twins


White Sox Links:

- Beer Leaguer: Rancid Offense Reigns

- South Side Sox: Danks Will Have To Help Himself

Morning In The Central

Royals Links:

- Royals Authority: How Often Do Good Relievers Have Bad Outings?

- Kings of Kauffmann: More April Drama Leads to Royals Win

Tigers Links:

- Bless You Boys: Are Young Tigers Prospects In Over Their Heads?

- Detroit Tigers Scorecard: The Phil Coke Debate

Twins Links:

- Over The Baggy: Kubel's Early Adjustments Pay Offensive Dividends

- North Dakota Twins Fan: Thome's History of Slow Starts

- Twinkie Town: State Of Play


White Sox Links:

-Future Sox: Is Trayce Thompson Primed For a Breakout Year?

- South Side Sox: Teahan Making Plays, and a Play For Third