The recent acquisition of Prince Fielder has many present and future implications for the Tigers. One of the primary topics of conversation that developed from that signing and the subsequent reassignment of Miguel Cabrera to 3b is the Tiger’s defense. The fair assumption that most have been making is that the change from Cabrera to Fielder at first base hurts the team defense, that the change from Inge/Kelly to Cabrera at 3b hurts the team defense, and that generally, the team defense is now inferior to where it was a year ago.
Everyone seems to be expecting the worst with this change, specifically for Doug Fister and Rick Porcello, two groundball heavy pitchers. I have heard the sentiment expressed that the Tigers now have three DHs (Cabrera, Fielder, and Young). Highly respected baseball people have wondered aloud just how long the Tigers can ‘survive’ with this arrangement. Many have suggested that Cabrera is very likely to not last at 3B over the course of the entire season. Is it really doom and gloom for the Tigers this season?
Showing posts with label Brandon Inge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brandon Inge. Show all posts
Monday, February 27, 2012
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Carlos Guillen Set to Make His Return
In general this years Tigers team hasn't struggled for offense, they're 5th in the AL in runs scored (8th in MLB) and have averaged 4.46 runs per game. Strong marks. They are however extremely top-heavy with five regulars posting OPS marks of .820 or better - one of just three teams that can make the claim.
The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.
For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.
The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.
For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Tigers Option Danny Worth, Activate Brandon Inge
Today the Tigers will get back one of their most beloved, and reviled players, Brandon Inge. A fan favorite, as well as whipping boy, Inge has been out for the past 20 games with mononucleosis (mono) which was likely at least somewhat to blame for his hideous .211/.279/.286 triple-slash over his first 181 plate appearances.
For his career Inge is a .236/.306/.390 hitter who's offensive value comes almost exclusively from his ability to crack 15-20 home runs per season as he neither hits for average, nor gets on base at an enticing rate. In addition to his home run power, Inge has generally played plus defense at third base, with a +5.7 career UZR/150. It's worth noting however that his UZR slipped below the 5.0 level for the first time since 2005 last year (3.5), and is at just 2.7 in 2011.
If Inge can't continue to be a legitimately plus defender, his inability to get on base at a respectable rate will render him an essentially worthless player.
The move will give the Tigers back their regular third baseman, while utility infielder Danny Worth will be optioned back to AAA. Worth was given just 31 plate appearances in Inge's absence but made the most of them, putting together a .310/.355/.379 line. He'll likely be the first call-up should the team suffer another infield injury.
For his career Inge is a .236/.306/.390 hitter who's offensive value comes almost exclusively from his ability to crack 15-20 home runs per season as he neither hits for average, nor gets on base at an enticing rate. In addition to his home run power, Inge has generally played plus defense at third base, with a +5.7 career UZR/150. It's worth noting however that his UZR slipped below the 5.0 level for the first time since 2005 last year (3.5), and is at just 2.7 in 2011.
If Inge can't continue to be a legitimately plus defender, his inability to get on base at a respectable rate will render him an essentially worthless player.
The move will give the Tigers back their regular third baseman, while utility infielder Danny Worth will be optioned back to AAA. Worth was given just 31 plate appearances in Inge's absence but made the most of them, putting together a .310/.355/.379 line. He'll likely be the first call-up should the team suffer another infield injury.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
The Paradox of Magglio Ordonez
A couple days ago I spoke briefly about the odds of Magglio Ordonez bouncing back from a down year, finally surmising that I expect him to do so. However, Ordonez playing well puts the Tigers front office and management in a bit of a bind as Ordonez has a 15.0m option for next season that vests if he reaches 135 starts or 540 plate appearances.
On a positive note the Tigers have a massive amount of money coming off the books next year as the bad contracts for Jeremy Bonderman (12.5m), Dontrelle Willis (12.0m), Nate Robertson (10.0m), Johnny Damon (8.0m), Brandon Inge (6.6m), along with smaller deals for catcher Gerald Laird (3.95m), Bobby Seay (2.475m), and Adam Everett (1.55m). That's a total of 57.075m. Should Ordonez's option not vest, that would bring the total to a whopping 72.075m.
With the Tigers opening day payroll this year just over 130.0m, one wonders how long that sort of spending can be maintained without seeing returns. By most accounts, Tigers owner Mike Illitch is eating a fairly substantial loss with attendance down and the state of the Detroit economy in a less-than-ideal spot.
That was true this off season as well, when the trades of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson were seen as payroll cutting moves. That notion however was largely invalidated when the Tigers then went out and spent a combined 22.0m on free agents Jose Valverde and Johnny Damon over a total of three years.
That doesn't necessarily mean that the Tigers wont be cutting payroll in the near future however, and the invaluable Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys said the following when asked about the Tigers payroll;
"[Then], either Tigers underestimated what that would do to attendance (for a club that would still be paying out about $115 million at the major league level) or owner Mike Ilitch didn't feel like wasting a year. Either way, the decision was made to invest a bit more in the product and make a run at the division, thus boosting sales and enjoyment. I think that's valid. You're already spending $115m to lose, why not add $15m to try to win?"
It makes perfect sense I suppose. If the Tigers can gain an additional 15.0m in revenue this season by being competitive (or at least by improving the notion of their competitiveness to the fan base) then it's certainly worth the investment in a financial sense.
That brings us back to the issue of Ordonez. There are a few questions to answer; first, how many wins is 15.0m worth? The second, if he isn't playing well enough to be worth 15.0m, should the team try and platoon him with another outfielder - perhaps Ryan Raburn - to keep him from reaching that option.
The first part of the equation is actually fairly easy to answer - or at least to ball park. We know that a win (on the WAR scale) is worth approximately 4.5m. So simple math: 15.0m / 4.5m = 3.33 wins. To be worth 3.33 wins, he'd have to post an OPS in the neighborhood of .875 and play around league average defense. That's hardly out of the question for him.
But what if he isn't, what if we're approaching mid-season and his OPS is around .820? What then? The team could try and turn to Raburn to hold Ordonez under the 540 PA mark, and of course deal with the inevitable union grievance later.
But therein lies the problem for the Tigers. Ordonez isn't likely to out play the value of his deal either this year or next, but trying to prevent that option from vesting isn't easy. With a payroll that is likely to tighten, even with all the money coming off the books, the Tigers might not really want Ordonez's option to vest, even if that is what is best for the teams competitiveness. That might not be an easy notion for a lot of Tigers fans to digest, but it's certainly not without validity.
On a positive note the Tigers have a massive amount of money coming off the books next year as the bad contracts for Jeremy Bonderman (12.5m), Dontrelle Willis (12.0m), Nate Robertson (10.0m), Johnny Damon (8.0m), Brandon Inge (6.6m), along with smaller deals for catcher Gerald Laird (3.95m), Bobby Seay (2.475m), and Adam Everett (1.55m). That's a total of 57.075m. Should Ordonez's option not vest, that would bring the total to a whopping 72.075m.
With the Tigers opening day payroll this year just over 130.0m, one wonders how long that sort of spending can be maintained without seeing returns. By most accounts, Tigers owner Mike Illitch is eating a fairly substantial loss with attendance down and the state of the Detroit economy in a less-than-ideal spot.
That was true this off season as well, when the trades of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson were seen as payroll cutting moves. That notion however was largely invalidated when the Tigers then went out and spent a combined 22.0m on free agents Jose Valverde and Johnny Damon over a total of three years.
That doesn't necessarily mean that the Tigers wont be cutting payroll in the near future however, and the invaluable Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys said the following when asked about the Tigers payroll;
"[Then], either Tigers underestimated what that would do to attendance (for a club that would still be paying out about $115 million at the major league level) or owner Mike Ilitch didn't feel like wasting a year. Either way, the decision was made to invest a bit more in the product and make a run at the division, thus boosting sales and enjoyment. I think that's valid. You're already spending $115m to lose, why not add $15m to try to win?"
It makes perfect sense I suppose. If the Tigers can gain an additional 15.0m in revenue this season by being competitive (or at least by improving the notion of their competitiveness to the fan base) then it's certainly worth the investment in a financial sense.
That brings us back to the issue of Ordonez. There are a few questions to answer; first, how many wins is 15.0m worth? The second, if he isn't playing well enough to be worth 15.0m, should the team try and platoon him with another outfielder - perhaps Ryan Raburn - to keep him from reaching that option.
The first part of the equation is actually fairly easy to answer - or at least to ball park. We know that a win (on the WAR scale) is worth approximately 4.5m. So simple math: 15.0m / 4.5m = 3.33 wins. To be worth 3.33 wins, he'd have to post an OPS in the neighborhood of .875 and play around league average defense. That's hardly out of the question for him.
But what if he isn't, what if we're approaching mid-season and his OPS is around .820? What then? The team could try and turn to Raburn to hold Ordonez under the 540 PA mark, and of course deal with the inevitable union grievance later.
But therein lies the problem for the Tigers. Ordonez isn't likely to out play the value of his deal either this year or next, but trying to prevent that option from vesting isn't easy. With a payroll that is likely to tighten, even with all the money coming off the books, the Tigers might not really want Ordonez's option to vest, even if that is what is best for the teams competitiveness. That might not be an easy notion for a lot of Tigers fans to digest, but it's certainly not without validity.
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