Carlos Guillen Set to Make His Return

In general this years Tigers team hasn't struggled for offense, they're 5th in the AL in runs scored (8th in MLB) and have averaged 4.46 runs per game. Strong marks. They are however extremely top-heavy with five regulars posting OPS marks of .820 or better - one of just three teams that can make the claim.

The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.

For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.

Tigers Trade Scott Sizemore To Athletics

I'll never quite understand why teams do this, and by "this," I mean trade position players with a chance to be productive regulars for mediocre bullpen arms. To be certain, not all teams make this mistake, but far too many GMs do, and now you can add the Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski to this list.

By trading Scott Sizemore, a promising bat at a historically offensively weak position for a middle-of-the-road left handed relief arm like that of David Purcey, the Tigers are taking a rather significant gamble. At 26 years old, Sizemore isn't particularly young, but he has consistently throttled Minor Leaguer pitching - though he has struggled in his sporadic Major League time. Purcey on the other hand is a 29 year old lefty who's only tangible strength is a somewhat above average strikeout rate (7.72/9IP). Beyond the K rate, he walks too many (4.50/9IP), and is an extreme fly ball pitcher (31.6%). He has a career 5.17 ERA against a 4.79 career xFIP.

Sizemore Growing Into Role as Everyday Player

2010 was supposed to be Scott Sizemore's coming out party. The fates however, had other plans. During the off season, Sizemore broke his ankle, and though he was ready to play on opening day, he was nowhere near ready for the challenge of the Major Leagues. Instead of heading into the season, and the greatest challenge of his professional career with a full off season of preparation, he was going in cold.

For an accomplished MLB veteran, such a return would be easier to make. They have a better idea of what to expect, they're better acclimated to the stresses of a Major League season. Sizemore however was essentially running in blind. It sure showed. On offense Sizemore struggled to make contact, on defense he looked slow, and unsure of himself. He was sent down after his disappointing start but caught fire in AAA, earning a pair of callups that helped him build some confidence through the season.

Has Scott Sizemore Really Been Freed?

Both I and my Central in Focus colleague have made arguments at various points this spring for why we felt that Scott Sizemore was an inherently better option at second base than the man who won the job out of spring training, Will Rhymes. Our rationals are different in their own nuanced ways, but ultimately boil down to one relatively simple, inalienable fact: Sizemore's skill set simply projects far better over the long-term.

While he was held back to open 2010, likely at least partly due to the broken ankle he suffered in the off season, he heated up through the summer, punishing AAA pitching to the tune of a .850 OPS, eventually earning a September call up. During that final stint Sizemore played in twelve games, hit .308, and launched a pair of home runs en route to a .934 OPS.

A small sample size tease.

Rhymes vs Sizemore, Issue Officially Beaten to Death

I know what everyone is thinking, “I cannot believe he used his article to rehash an issue that has been discussed literally (not literally) a million times.” And to that I say, fair point. However, this has been arguably the single biggest issue of debate for people following the Detroit Tigers after Sizemore was cut during spring training, and really even before that. For the purpose of this article, I am going to try and avoid offering proof that either Sizemore or Rhymes is the better player “right now” because I do not know the answer to that question. I will disclose right here, that I strongly suspect that Scott Sizemore is the better player right now and would be a superior option to Will Rhymes, but I cannot be sure.

The approach I want this article to take is to look at both players through the prism of expected value to the Detroit Tigers this season. Basically, I want to look at the decision based on the idea that we really do not know what either player will give the Tigers during the season, but we can make some reasonable guesses as to their range of possible production and assign differing probabilities to those ranges to get an expected value.

Will Rhymes Wins Tigers Second Base Job

Following the departure of Placido Polanco after the 2009 season, the Tigers were left with a fairly significant hole to fill at second base. While the decision to allow Polanco, the long-standing #2 hitter in the lineup and a well liked player all-around wasn't an easy one, his age, combined with a production falloff that left him with an OPS of just .727 in 2009 made it easier. Polanco would go on to sign a rather significant new contract with the Phillies who moved him to third base.

The initial plan had been to phase in Scott Sizemore who was coming off a strong Minor League campaign in 2009, having hammered both AA and AAA pitching in 2009, Sizemore displayed offense to spare at a position where offense is generally pretty hard to come by. It was widely known that he was a sub-par defender, but the prospect of a second baseman putting up a .270/.350/.440 line is hard to ignore. Second basemen with that kind of offensive production don't just grow on trees.

Should the Tigers Trade For Dan Uggla?

As extension talks with the Marlins break down, talk around the hot stove has turned to where Dan Uggla will be traded. It's also become apparent that the Tigers are a likely landing spot.

Let's delve into the numbers to try and get an idea of how Uggla would fit in at Comerica.

Dan Uggla is a terrible defender.

Uggla posted a -7.4 UZR/150 at second base last year. Consistently ranked as a poor defender at second throughout his career, he carries a career UZR/150 of -4.5 which is buoyed somewhat by his rookie year, where he posted a +5.7 mark, the only season he's been above average. Beyond that he's also rated poorly by Dewan's +/- system (-8) and the Defensive Runs Saved metric (-11). Among qualified defenders, he ranked 3rd worst in baseball in UZR/150, 6th worst in +/-, and tied for worst in DRS. So it should be pretty safe to say he's a bad defender.

Dan Uggla is a great offensive second baseman.

A career .263/.349/.488 hitter, Uggla posted a .287/.369/.508 triple slash line last year on the back of a .330 BABIP. Those marks ranked 4th in OBP and 2nd in SLG among all qualified second basemen. Overall, his .877 OPS was second to just Robinson Cano.

Overall, Dan Uggla is pretty good.

Overall, Uggla's combination of great offense and terrible defense still leave him rated as a very good player, as his 5.1 WAR last year indicated. That 5.1 was a career best, and probably not what should be expected on a yearly basis. But it shows that he has the upside to be one of the 30 best players in baseball in any given year. Indeed, that 5.1 WAR was tied for 26th best in baseball with one Joe Mauer.

Throughout his five full seasons, Uggla has been worth an average of 3.8 WAR per season. As a player who will enter the 2011 season as a 31 year old, in the prime of his career, it's likely that he'd be worth somewhere around that amount - and maybe slightly more - for the next couple seasons, provided his defense doesn't fall off any further.


A lot of really smart people think Scott Sizemore will be pretty good next year.

Looking at Bill James' projections for Scott Sizemore next year, you have to be excited as a Tigers fan. While Sizemore struggled mightily out of the gate in 2010, it's likely that was at least partially due to the knee injury he suffered during the off season. As the season went on, Sizemore really heated up and ended up hitting well in AAA to the tune of a .850 OPS. He then got a late season call-up and showed off why so many folks think so highly of his bat.

James is projecting Sizemore for a .277/.343/.438 line next year which I think is right around what I expect. That looks pretty similar to Uggla's career line .263/.349/.488, with a bit better average and a bit less power.

Dan Uggla will be expensive.

This is where things get tricky. Uggla just turned down a 4 year, 48m deal from the Marlins, which has created all the trade buzz. Presumably, he did so at least partially because he wants more money and/or more years. If Uggla wants more money, presumably by at least a couple million, the signing team could end up paying him  around 14m per year.

If we can agree that a player is worth 4.25m per WAR (which is around average) in free agency, then even his average season is worth around 16m per season. He'd certainly be worth the money - as a second baseman. The question is, can he stick at second over the course of a 4 or 5 year deal?

If not and he has to move to third, or worse, first base or designated hitter, suddenly his offense isn't nearly as impressive when compared to his positional peers.

The next part of the equation is how much will he cost in terms of prospects? There aren't a lot of recent comparables in terms of high WAR middle infielders being dealt. I don't imagine Uggla would cost a Top-50 Prospect, but I also don't think they'd be out of line to seek a Top-75/100 type player in return. I'm fairly confident they could get a player of that caliber in return. The market for players with Uggla's skill set (good bat, bad glove) has diminished over the past five years, but not to that extent.

My guess would be that there will be enough interest and competition that the Marlins will be able to secure a Top-100 prospect. The Tigers however, have a pretty thin farm system. I'd assume that Jacob Turner, the Tigers top prospect would be out of reach. But someone like Brennan Boesch, Casey Crosby, or Daniel Schlereth could headline a deal.

Ultimately, Dave Dombrowski will have to decide if dealing players as well thought of as Crosby and Schlereth, in addition to forking out a sizeable contract is worthwhile. And that's not as cut-and-dry as it might seem.

Will Uggla be an upgrade over Sizemore? Probably. Will it be by a significant margin? Maybe. Maybe not. What is certain is that the Tigers would have to put out a significant outlay in both dollars and prospects to get Dan Uggla in stripes.

Carlos Guillen Has Microfracture Surgery

Carlos Guillen finally went under the knife to have microfracture surgery this past Friday. The produce is relatively knew and involves doing precisely what the name implies - creating many miniature fractures which is supposed to help improve the overall strength of the bone. That might sound odd, but in general, bones, when broken, heal much stronger than they were before. This is the general premise behind the surgery.

The time table for the produce is difficult. While ideal circumstances would have the player back on his feet in four months, and playing again in six, that's not always the case. The surgery is most common amongst basketball players and not infrequently, those players have taken much longer to fully recover, or simply never have. In terms of baseball players, the only notable cases has been those of Brian Giles and Grady Sizemore. Giles never made it back and Sizemore is still struggling two years later. I don't say that to create panic - but to be realistic. Guillen is facing a long, complicated recovery process, and one that doesn't always go well.

For the Tigers as a franchise, the injury and the surgery have significant on-field and front-office implications. Guillen has struggled through injuries the past few years, playing just 113 games in 2008, 81 in 2009, and just 68 in 2010. All the while he's seen his defensive abilities predictably decline as his range has diminished. That said, he was managing to play a passable 2nd base (-5.0 UZR/150) in a small sample size after taking over for the extremely disappointing Scott Sizemore earlier in the year. before being hurt in a collision with the Yankees Brett Gardner.

In Guillen's stead the little heralded Will Rhymes has taken over and been a pleasant surprise. Rhymes has posted a .293/.341/.369 triple slash on a perfectly sustainable .319 BABIP. At 27 years old the slightly built Rhymes possesses neither significant upside, nor any power to speak of, but he's a solid contact hitter and plays decent defense. Long-term, he's not the answer at the position, but provided he doesn't show any significant decline, there is little reason to believe that he can't continue to play passable (-8.5 UZR/150) defense while providing a solid bottom-of-the-order OBP.

In a more ideal world however, Sizemore will begin to perform to his fairly impressive capabilities. While the Tigers had expected Sizemore to be ready to take over for the departed Placido Polanco it appears that an injury suffered the previous fall in the Arizona Fall League had not yet full healed and he struggled significantly. After being demoted early in the year, he pulled his game together somewhat, posting progressively better numbers each month for AAA Toledo (save for a pretty rough month of August). In his limited time since that return he's performed well, launching two homeruns in the Tigers past two games.

For the remainder of this year, Manager Jim Leyland will go with a Rhymes/Sizemore platoon. However, he's stated that he does not want to have to platoon his second baseman next year, citing concerns over the continuity of the teams double-play combination. The Tigers second base job is likely to open 2010 as an open competition between Sizemore and Rhymes. I would have to believe that the best possible option would be for the younger, more talented Sizemore to win the job outright and hold on to it. Something he failed to do this year.

The final aspect to this situation is Guillen's 13m financial commitment for 2011. Odds are that the Tigers have Guillen's contract insured, as is the case with most significant contracts. It's also likely that the insurance would cover roughly half of his salary in the event that Guillen was unable to play in 2011. Should Guillen be physically able to play however, the Tigers would likely not be able to collet insurnace monies and would, therefore, be stuck paying a player who might have very little to contribute, even if used strictly as a designated hitter. Long-term, the injury is thankfully less impactful. 2011 was Guillen's final year under contract and it was unlikely he'd be back with the Tigers (or if so, at a greatly reduced cost). 

Of course, we always hope for the best - for the player and the organization - and that's no different in this case. But the Tigers need to be prepared to go forward in the event that their former All-Star shortstop is either incapable of performing well - or at all.

Tigers Roundup: Week One

Tigers (5-1): The Tigers opened the season with a pair of divisional foes, in the Royals and Indians, going a combined 5-1, a brilliant beginning to their season. What really stood out to me was the hitting of three players. Offensively, the team was carried by a trio of players, the first two you know all about, Magglio Ordonez (1.286 OPS) and Miguel Cabrera (1.403) either of whom could win the AL Player of the week. The other is rookie Austin Jackson (.848) who has carried over a hot spring into the regular season.

One the mound, starting pitchers Dontrelle Willis (6.0IP / 2ER) and Jeremy Bonderman (5IP / 2ER) both pitched very well, giving the club a pair of badly needed starts to help propel them forward. While I am highly skeptical about either of those two pitchers being in the rotation come June 1st, what they can give the Tigers in the short run will buy management some time to decide what if anything they can bring in to provide a more long-term solution.

The problems for the Tigers were at the bottom of the lineup. Gerald Laird, the regular starting catcher had just one hit, and they got next to nothing from rookie second baseman Scott Sizemore.

The two biggest issues that the Tigers are going to face this year will be what they do beyond their six good hitters. Will they try and a make a move to address shortstop, catcher, or third base, or will they prefer to stick with the current options? The Tigers have Alex Avila who they can try a catcher if they want to improve the offense. He brings good power, but strikes out a ton, and would be a defensive downgrade.

The biggest concern I have however, is the rotation. In spots 1-3, the Tigers are great, but Bonderman and Willis simply aren't going to be long for the rotation. They do have some options in Eddie Bonine, and Armando Galarraga, but those aren't exactly ideal either. Should the Tigers suffer an extended injury to any of their top three starters, it could jeopardize their season entirely.