The Battle For The Tigers Final Outfield Spot

Every team has it interesting spring training races to watch, and in the AL Central that's no different. In Minnesota, there are six starters fighting for five spots and bullpen full of holes after the team jettisoned essentially their entire bullpen this past off season. Kansas City has a youngster (or three) that should have every veteran on their toes. The Indians are trying to figure out how to fill third base and with all the outfield injuries, there is room for someone who wants to step up there.

What to Expect From Brennan Boesch In 2011

The Tigers 3rd round pick in the 2007 draft, Brennan Boesch had a breakout season for the Tigers in 2010, posting a monster first half in which he slugged his way to a .345/.397/.593 triple slash with 12 home runs and a 17.6% K-rate in 267 pre-All-Star Game at-bats. The very first pitch he saw, a fastball from Rich Harden, he lashed for a double and he just kept right on hitting through the break. More impressive is that he didn't begin to compile those numbers until after a mid-season call up, necessitated when Carlos Guillen went down. Until the All-Star break Boesch looked as though he were trying tp put his stamp on the left field job and make himself a permanent fixture in the Tigers batting order.

What to Expect From Austin Jackson In 2011

As the Tigers prepared for life without all-star center fielder Curtis Granderson following his off season trade to the Yankees for Austin Jackson and Phil Coke (that also helped net Max Scherzer) last year, they had a need for their new young center fielder to help make up for at least some of the 3.0 WAR performance lost in Granderson's departure.

Asking anyone, much less a 23 year old who had posted an OPS of just .759 in AAA the previous season to come up and replace a perennial all-star candidate like Granderson was asking a lot. Yet Jackson would manage to do all of that and more in 2010. Jackson had a phenomenal rookie season with the Tigers, providing the team with a solid on base percentage and plus speed out of the leadoff spot while simultaneous playing strong defense in center field, and somehow managing to help fans forget about Granderson by providing much of the same "ooh and ahh factor" that Granderson took with him to New York. In fact, the 3.8 WAR posted by Jackson as a rookie was better than all but one of Granderson's seasons.

Using Sabermetrics To Project A Hitters Performance - Part 1

I've already written about BABIP as it pertains to pitchers in this piece, touching on the concept of .300 - and how pitchers with BABIP marks either above or below it could be consider either lucky, or unlucky. BABIP works in a similar with hitters, and .300 should still be your waterline, but unlike pitchers, hitters have more control over their BABIP, because they have more control over how a ball is struck, whereas a pitcher generally has very little (and none directly). Today I'll try and explain how you can use BABIP, in conjunction with other metrics like LD%, GB%, FB%, K%, and BB% to project a hitters future performance.

Before we can get to the point of doing the actual projections however, we need to go over some important concepts.

The Curious Case Of Austin Jackson

This past off season the Detroit Tigers shipped veteran center fielder and fan favorite Curtis Granderson to the Yankees for prospect Austin Jackson and reliever Phil Coke. Both players immediately assumed roles with the team and while Coke has been a nice option in the bullpen, the only player anyone in Detroit wants to talk about is Jackson.

For good reason.

While I expected Jackson to be able to come up and provide strong defense in center and speed on the bases, what I wasn't ready for, was his bat. Jackson had a very good completely outrageous spring training for the Tigers, posting a 1.050 OPS with three home runs  (ten extra base hits in all) in just 73 at-bats.

I wrote it off as spring training stats. Lots of guys hit well in spring training.

But now we're wrapping up April, and the kid who had only once posted an OPS over .780 (back in A ball in 2007) has an OPS of .917 with nine extra base hits in 99 at-bats and he leads baseball with 36 hits. The natural question to ask? "What the hell is going on with this kid?"

Good question.

Everything about Jackson's performance screams luck. From his career minor league statistics, to his .530 BABIP! to his 32.3% strikeout rate, and a line drive rate that stands at 37.5%.

But luck usually starts to run out with a big enough sample size, and now with spring training and the first month of the season behind us, Jackson has been red hot for two months and nearly 200 at-bats. What gives, and when this kid comes back to Earth, what can we expect from him going forward?

I don't know if I can definitively answer the first part of that question. Obviously this is why we don't look into early season performances too much - because they have a tendency to be fluky, both on the team and individual level.

However when it comes to BABIP, Jackson has made a career of carrying a higher than normal one. The lowest career BABIP for Jackson during his minor league career was .331 - Major League average is .303. Yes, Minor League BABIP's tend to be higher than Major League ones due to improved defense at this level. But with a career MiLB BABIP of around .365, it can be safely assumed that he'll outperform the average.

So let's say we presume a .365 BABIP for Jackson (way above average) that leaves Jackson taking over a 100 point hit to his batting average, and consequently a hit to his power (fewer hits overall leads to fewer extra-base hits). At the same time, one of the statistics that we use to say Jackson is due for regression - his LD% - also suggests that he will be a legitimate Major League hitter once he conquers his strikeout issues.


If Jackson were to continue to hit as he has, but with a normalized BABIP (.365) and a refined strikeout rate (23.6% <- his career MiLB rate) a reasonable batting average expectation would be around .278. With a 10% MiLB walk rate per at-bat, we can add 60 walks to his 167 hits for a OBP of .344. With a reasonable ISO of .130 that would give him a SLG of .408. For a total triple slash of...

.278/.344/.408 - .752.

That's awfully good for a very young hitter, especially at a defense first position like center field. But it's nowhere near his current .917

Tigers Send Carlos Guillen To 15-Day DL

The Tigers, already thin on offense just lost one of their key cogs as Carlos Guillen, who spend about a third of 2008 and about a half of 2009 on the disabled list with a variety of ailments, went down with a pulled hamstring. He's was immediately placed on the fifteen day disabled list and the Tigers have brought up outfielder Brennan Boesch to take his place.

The Tigers we're a thin team offensively coming into 2010 with Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera being the only consistently above-average offensive options on the team. Without Guillen, they're left in an even worse position. While rookie Austin Jackson has helped ease some of that burden, there are a couple big issues that portend tougher days ahead for the youngster. More on that later.

For now, the Tigers simply need Guillen to try and get better. The problem is that hamstring injuries have a way of persisting throughout a season. The Tigers are hoping that enough rest will take care of the issue, but I'm not so optimistic, and that could be a doubly bad thing for the Tigers.

Any time you lose a guy who is hitting .311 and has an OPS of .834, it's going to be a bad thing. This is especially true on a team where offense is hard to come by. It's even more true when that offense is nearly the only thing keeping pitchers from throwing to the one guy who can really, really hurt them. 

Now generally speaking, I'm not big on the idea of protection in a lineup. There have been plenty of studies done to show that it has minimal (if any) effect on the output of the player being "protected." But given how Miguel Cabrera is currently treating American League pitchers much the same way that a cat might treat a trapped mouse - tormenting, pouncing, devouring - this might be one of the few times it's a legitimate issue.

Cabrera has pummeled opposing pitchers, batting .365 while walking more than he strikes out, and blasting eleven extra-base hits in just 73 at-bats while driving in 19 runs. Right now Cabrera might very well be the most imposing figure in the batters box in the entire American League. The Tigers are going to need whoever occupies Guillen's spot for the next couple weeks to hit and give the opposition some reason to not simply intentionally walk Cabrera every time he steps to the plate.

Given the lineup for game one, that task will, at least for now, fall to the young man who is replacing Guillen, 25 year old Brennan Boesche. Boesche has hammered away at AAA pitchers so far this year, hitting .379 while posting an OPS of 1.075. Boesche however struck out in 24.1% of his at-bats at AA in 2009 while hitting 28 home runs and 61 total extra base hits.  So far has struck out in 29.3% of his AAA at-bats while hitting three home runs and seven total extra base hits. That's an admittedly small sample size from this year, but not surprising given his strikeout rate in AA.

Boesche will certainly hit the ball for some power, but he's also going to strike out a ton, at least for now, and because of that, isn't likely to hit for sustainable average. He's also had issues taking a walk which may be more disturbing than the strikeouts because it suggests he's willing to expand his strike-zone to swing at anything. That's precisely the sort of weakness Major League pitchers tend to exploit without regard.

Thankfully to say, this will be a very short-term situation. Hopefully. Because Boesche probably isn't going to hit well enough, consistently enough, to make opposing pitchers fear pitching around Cabrera. And that could mean bad things for the Tigers offense on a longer-term basis.

Tigers Roundup: Week One

Tigers (5-1): The Tigers opened the season with a pair of divisional foes, in the Royals and Indians, going a combined 5-1, a brilliant beginning to their season. What really stood out to me was the hitting of three players. Offensively, the team was carried by a trio of players, the first two you know all about, Magglio Ordonez (1.286 OPS) and Miguel Cabrera (1.403) either of whom could win the AL Player of the week. The other is rookie Austin Jackson (.848) who has carried over a hot spring into the regular season.

One the mound, starting pitchers Dontrelle Willis (6.0IP / 2ER) and Jeremy Bonderman (5IP / 2ER) both pitched very well, giving the club a pair of badly needed starts to help propel them forward. While I am highly skeptical about either of those two pitchers being in the rotation come June 1st, what they can give the Tigers in the short run will buy management some time to decide what if anything they can bring in to provide a more long-term solution.

The problems for the Tigers were at the bottom of the lineup. Gerald Laird, the regular starting catcher had just one hit, and they got next to nothing from rookie second baseman Scott Sizemore.

The two biggest issues that the Tigers are going to face this year will be what they do beyond their six good hitters. Will they try and a make a move to address shortstop, catcher, or third base, or will they prefer to stick with the current options? The Tigers have Alex Avila who they can try a catcher if they want to improve the offense. He brings good power, but strikes out a ton, and would be a defensive downgrade.

The biggest concern I have however, is the rotation. In spots 1-3, the Tigers are great, but Bonderman and Willis simply aren't going to be long for the rotation. They do have some options in Eddie Bonine, and Armando Galarraga, but those aren't exactly ideal either. Should the Tigers suffer an extended injury to any of their top three starters, it could jeopardize their season entirely.

Clete Thomas Optioned to AAA

With the Tigers announcement yesterday that Austin Jackson would indeed be the opening day center fielder, this doesn't come as a huge surprise. There is still one spot on the 25 man roster open and the odds on favorite appears to be Don Kelly.

Too bad, I like Thomas. He strikes out way too much, but posts respectable OBP numbers, plays solid defense at all three outfield positions, and can do some work on the base paths. Thomas will never be a star, but could make a decent career as a 4th outfielder.

That said, as utility players go, Kelly does provide fantastic flexibility with the ability to play pretty much everywhere. He's logged time at every position except for center field and catcher in his Major League career.

Offensively Kelly wont add much, I'd expect the same overall performance with the bat as Clete Thomas, though with fewer strikeouts.