Would Calling Up Jacob Turner Be The Right Decision?

In truth, this is really a three-piece discussion with the first question being: how did we get to this point?;  the second question being: is Jacob Turner the best pitcher available to fill the role of 5th starter on the Tigers?; and the third question being: is he ready to get Major League hitters out?

Let's start with the first question: How did we get to this point?

Tigers Demote Furbush, Recall Worth

A tough day for Tigers rookie Charlie Furbush all around today. Making his second start of the season today Furbush got shelled by the Royals, allowing nine hits and a pair of walks in just two and two thirds innings of work. It's likely that the damage could've been lessened had shortstop Ramon Santiago not allowed what should've been the final out of the third inning to scoot between his legs - after which the Royals pounded out five more runs (all unearned of course) on top of the four they had put up earlier in the game.

Tonight the Tigers have announced that they've optioned him back to AAA and recalled utilityman Danny Worth. Much like the demotion of Royals pitcher Danny Duffy however, the move could quite possibly have been nothing more than the teams desire to keep Furbush on his regular schedule through the All-Star break.

Swapping Problems Isn't a Solution

When the Tigers announced that Phil Coke would be a member of the teams starting rotation following the 2010 season, I was skeptical. Coke had worked primarily as the stereotypical fastball/slider reliever during his time with the Yankees before mixing in his changeup last year when he was traded to Detroit and it was effective enough (1.40R/C - runs above average/100 pitches).

Still, the thought of moving someone who had worked largely with the platoon split - while showing a significant platoon split - to the rotation seemed risky. Coke posted a 32K/8BB ratio in 28.2 innings vs lefties last year, but had a 21K/18BB ratio in 36.0 innings vs righties, which should've let anyone paying attention know that he would struggle mightily in the rotation, where he can't be protected from seeing twice as many right handers as left handers.

Tigers Sign Brad Penny. Where Does That Leave Armando Galarraga?

Tigers General Manager Dave Drombrowski has publicly hinted at the idea of adding another starter to his rotation a few times this off season, and with the recent signing of Brad Penny, he's finally made that a reality. By moving Phil Coke to the rotation, the Tigers already had a full five man rotation, but the addition of Penny gives the team additional depth that, beyond Andrew Oliver, was lacking internally.

While Penny himself hasn't been anything particularly special the past three years, having posted a 5.02 ERA while struggling through various injuries, he has been a steady if unspectacular innings eater throughout his career posting a career ERA of 4.11 with an FIP of 3.98 and an xFIP of 4.19. Despite a mid-90s fastball (93.4mph career / 94.1mph 2010), Penny's rate stats profile more like that of a inning-eating-sinkerballer: 6.27K/2.85BB-45.7GB.

What the Tigers will get out of Penny of course, remains something of a mystery. If healthy, Penny could be good for around 170-190 innings with an ERA in the low 4s. Poor results aside, an examination of Penny's rate stats the past three seasons reveals very little change other than a slight (but not completely insignificant) decline in his strikeout rate. He remains an average to somewhat low strikeout pitcher with average or slightly better walk rates and solid/plus ground ball tendencies. Of course, the issue of his health remains a big IF given his past three seasons. He could also pitch the way he did in 2008 or 2009, or end up making just nine starts as he did in 2010 for the Cardinals.

That being said, speculating on injuries is a fools errand. What we should be taking into account is that the Tigers had a need - someone who could eat innings at the bottom of the rotation - and while Penny comes with plenty of risk, he also comes with an upside that former 5th starter Armando Galarraga doesn't possess. For what it's worth, Bill James projects Galarraga for 178 innings of a 4.45 ERA. While projections aren't out yet for Penny, one would assume they won't be good given his performance over the past three seasons.

But with Penny signed, the Tigers have given themselves something more difficult to measure than even advanced metrics can quantify - peace of mind. Penny gives the Tigers depth that insulates them against the all-too-common pitching injury, a veteran presence and a proven innings eater - and he does so at a cut-throat rate.

The worst case scenario for this signing is that Penny, who struggled in the AL during his only stint in Boston, tanks and is summarily released, traded, or banished to mop-up duty. The best case of course, is significantly better. While some might be quick to label the signing as insignificant (something it may very well end up being) I like it because even in its insignificance, it is meaningful.

There are other angles of this signing to explore however. As implied in the title of this post, one has to wonder what this ultimately means for the future of Galarraga. While I've seen some speculation that he may become trade bait, that would seem to run counter to what I imagine Dombrowski's real intent is - to create depth that protects the team against injury or ineffectiveness. Short term, I expect the Tigers to utilize Galarraga in a long-relief role where he'll almost certainly prove to be more effective than Eddie Bonine was in 2010. Long term however, he remains a viable option as a #4 or #5 starter on most teams. Whether that team will be the Tigers or not will likely have much to do with how the Tigers relatively deep corps of pitching prospects develops.

Speaking of pitching prospects, I also wonder what this says about the Tigers short-term view of Andrew Oliver. While Oliver possesses good stuff, with a fastball that averages 93.8mph and a good slider with late break that will be very effective as a put-away pitch against both lefties and righties. His changeup is still developing and in the long run, that will make him vulnerable to lefties. More importantly, his control is still very much a work in progress as this point. While Oliver is rightfully well-regarded as a pitching prospect, his reputation may be ahead of his refined talents.

That being said, Oliver's short-term outlook shouldn't cloud the long-term one, he's still a rare beast, a live-armed lefty who, despite his flaws, projects as a #2 or #3 pitcher. It just seems that the Tigers brain-trust doesn't believe his time is now.

The Curious Case Of Austin Jackson

This past off season the Detroit Tigers shipped veteran center fielder and fan favorite Curtis Granderson to the Yankees for prospect Austin Jackson and reliever Phil Coke. Both players immediately assumed roles with the team and while Coke has been a nice option in the bullpen, the only player anyone in Detroit wants to talk about is Jackson.

For good reason.

While I expected Jackson to be able to come up and provide strong defense in center and speed on the bases, what I wasn't ready for, was his bat. Jackson had a very good completely outrageous spring training for the Tigers, posting a 1.050 OPS with three home runs  (ten extra base hits in all) in just 73 at-bats.

I wrote it off as spring training stats. Lots of guys hit well in spring training.

But now we're wrapping up April, and the kid who had only once posted an OPS over .780 (back in A ball in 2007) has an OPS of .917 with nine extra base hits in 99 at-bats and he leads baseball with 36 hits. The natural question to ask? "What the hell is going on with this kid?"

Good question.

Everything about Jackson's performance screams luck. From his career minor league statistics, to his .530 BABIP! to his 32.3% strikeout rate, and a line drive rate that stands at 37.5%.

But luck usually starts to run out with a big enough sample size, and now with spring training and the first month of the season behind us, Jackson has been red hot for two months and nearly 200 at-bats. What gives, and when this kid comes back to Earth, what can we expect from him going forward?

I don't know if I can definitively answer the first part of that question. Obviously this is why we don't look into early season performances too much - because they have a tendency to be fluky, both on the team and individual level.

However when it comes to BABIP, Jackson has made a career of carrying a higher than normal one. The lowest career BABIP for Jackson during his minor league career was .331 - Major League average is .303. Yes, Minor League BABIP's tend to be higher than Major League ones due to improved defense at this level. But with a career MiLB BABIP of around .365, it can be safely assumed that he'll outperform the average.

So let's say we presume a .365 BABIP for Jackson (way above average) that leaves Jackson taking over a 100 point hit to his batting average, and consequently a hit to his power (fewer hits overall leads to fewer extra-base hits). At the same time, one of the statistics that we use to say Jackson is due for regression - his LD% - also suggests that he will be a legitimate Major League hitter once he conquers his strikeout issues.


If Jackson were to continue to hit as he has, but with a normalized BABIP (.365) and a refined strikeout rate (23.6% <- his career MiLB rate) a reasonable batting average expectation would be around .278. With a 10% MiLB walk rate per at-bat, we can add 60 walks to his 167 hits for a OBP of .344. With a reasonable ISO of .130 that would give him a SLG of .408. For a total triple slash of...

.278/.344/.408 - .752.

That's awfully good for a very young hitter, especially at a defense first position like center field. But it's nowhere near his current .917