In an effort to shore up their starting pitching depth following the loss of Lucas Harrell to the waiver wire the White Sox have signed free agent Doug Davis to a Minor League contract. The 36 year old Davis is a 12 year veteran of the Major Leagues who started his career with the Rangers. He spent parts of five seasons with them, but is probably best known as a Brewer. Davis had two different stints with the team, first from 2003 through 2006, and he made 8 starts for the team last year.
In 2004 and 2005 Davis turned in a pair of very good seasons, posting ERAs of 3.39 and 3.84 respectively while throwing over 200 innings in each campaign. He's been decidedly less effective since those seasons however and after signing with the Cubs this offseason got torched for a 6.50 ERA over nine starts before being demoted.
Davis' peripherals however remain solid as he still sports a K rate over 7.00 with a solid 42.8% GB rate. He has walked far too many but it's certainly possible that, in a pinch, he could deliver some quality innings. And that's precisely what the White Sox are looking for - someone who could be relied upon in a pinch should injuries necessitate the team turning to it's 7th starter.
Showing posts with label Free Agent Signing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Agent Signing. Show all posts
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
White Sox Sign Dexter Carter
When the White Sox made their move to acquire Padres ace Jake Peavy in 2009, one of the key players headed to the Padres was Sox prospect Dexter Carter. Despite being a 22 year old in Low A Carter was coming off 118 dazzling innings for the Sox, with impressive 10.91K and 2.44BB rates. Unfortunately for the Padres, whatever he had figured out with the Sox fell apart after the trade as he would never again display the same level of dominance, even though he never was pushed beyond A ball.
After a season and a half of disappointment, the Padres gave up on him.
The White Sox for their part seemed happy to welcome him back. The 6'6" righty has struggled throughout his career with his mechanics which has made him inconsistent. But he features a mow 90s fastball, changeup and curve and his tall frame gives him good plane on this pitches. At 24 and not yet having seen AA Carter's chances of reaching the Majors are slim, but if the Sox can help him rediscover his early 2009 form, they might have something.
After a season and a half of disappointment, the Padres gave up on him.
The White Sox for their part seemed happy to welcome him back. The 6'6" righty has struggled throughout his career with his mechanics which has made him inconsistent. But he features a mow 90s fastball, changeup and curve and his tall frame gives him good plane on this pitches. At 24 and not yet having seen AA Carter's chances of reaching the Majors are slim, but if the Sox can help him rediscover his early 2009 form, they might have something.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Indians Sign Jesse English
The Indians have brought on soft throwing lefty Jesse English. Initially a draft pick for the Giants, English spent the past two seasons pitching for the Nationals, breaking onto their Major League squad briefly last season, making seven relief appearances.
At one point in time English was thought to be a potential back-end starter, but with a fastball the works in 86-88 range, he's ended up to be better suited in the bullpen and looks like he could serve as a low-leverage lefty-specialist.
At one point in time English was thought to be a potential back-end starter, but with a fastball the works in 86-88 range, he's ended up to be better suited in the bullpen and looks like he could serve as a low-leverage lefty-specialist.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Indians Sign Nick Johnson
Last week when I discussed the Chad Durbin signing I pointed out that Indians GM Chris Antonelli was being prudent about his limited free agent payroll and wisely waiting out players as options became scarce. Now he's done so again, bringing in first baseman and on base machine Nick Johnson on a Minor League contract.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Indians Sign Chad Durbin
Every year there are a few players who over-play their off-season hand, holding out for the one team that will up their bid and land them a big payday. For a lot of players, that strategy backfires and they end up signing for far less than they were hoping for. The Indians have already landed one such player in Orlando Cabrera on a one year, one million dollar deal that will help shore up their infield.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Indians Sign Orlando Cabrera
*Update* Contract is for 1.0m.
*Update* It's a MLB contact (still no word on the terms) which means the Indians will need to drop someone from the 40-man roster. My guess as to who will be dropped remains unaffected.
No details yet but the Indians have acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera. The Indians are actually pretty well set in the middle with Asdrubal Cabrera at short and a bevy of options including Luis Valbuena, or Jason Donald who are already on the MLB roster, and Jason Kipnis, or Cord Phelps in the minors.
*Update* It's a MLB contact (still no word on the terms) which means the Indians will need to drop someone from the 40-man roster. My guess as to who will be dropped remains unaffected.
No details yet but the Indians have acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera. The Indians are actually pretty well set in the middle with Asdrubal Cabrera at short and a bevy of options including Luis Valbuena, or Jason Donald who are already on the MLB roster, and Jason Kipnis, or Cord Phelps in the minors.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
White Sox Sign Lastings Milledge. Why I like it.
In a move to shore up their outfield depth, the White Sox have announced they've inked former first round pick and top prospect Lastings Milledge to a Minor League contract that will pay him 500k while he's in the Majors. There are no incentives.
Milledge is a polarizing player; very talented, he was once ranked Baseball America's #9 overall prospect, scouts loved his athleticism, quick hands, and raw power. Unfortunately, as was so often the case with the horribly mismanaged Mets, he was rushed quickly through the Minor Leagues and after just two and a half seasons, found himself exposed to big league pitching at just 21 years of age. Not surprisingly, he got eaten alive.
Milledge is a polarizing player; very talented, he was once ranked Baseball America's #9 overall prospect, scouts loved his athleticism, quick hands, and raw power. Unfortunately, as was so often the case with the horribly mismanaged Mets, he was rushed quickly through the Minor Leagues and after just two and a half seasons, found himself exposed to big league pitching at just 21 years of age. Not surprisingly, he got eaten alive.
Royals Sign Pedro Feliz
The Royals have plenty of money to spend with the contracts of Zack Grienke and Gil Meche no longer on the books. Today the decided to spend a little bit of it to sign third baseman Pedro Feliz to a Minor League deal.. Feliz had some solid offensive seasons in 2003 and 2004 with the Giants, but his offensive game fell off a cliff thereafter and he hasn't posted an OPS over .710 since 2005. Given that he'll be 36 in 2011, there is also essentially zero chance he turns that around.
Feliz's calling card however has always been his defense. Indeed, he may have been the best defensive third baseman in the game between 2003 and 2007. His defense too has fallen off which is what's expected of someone as they head into their mid-to-late thirties. He's still a solid option at the position however and he can provide depth and maybe serve as a defensive mentor to top prospect Mike Moustakas.
Wilson Betemit remains the likely opening day starter for the 2011 season.
Feliz's calling card however has always been his defense. Indeed, he may have been the best defensive third baseman in the game between 2003 and 2007. His defense too has fallen off which is what's expected of someone as they head into their mid-to-late thirties. He's still a solid option at the position however and he can provide depth and maybe serve as a defensive mentor to top prospect Mike Moustakas.
Wilson Betemit remains the likely opening day starter for the 2011 season.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Twins Finally Sign Carl Pavano And A Closer Look At How Luck Effects A Pitchers Peformance
After a month and change of, "they're close," the Twins and starting pitcher Carl Pavano have finally agreed on a two-year pact that will pay the pitcher 16.5m. Pavano's performance in 2010 was his best since his 2005 campaign that propelled him to a four year forty million dollar deal with the Yankees. His 4.02 FIP suggests his 3.75 ERA was a tad bit lucky, but hardly beyond the bounds of the margin of error. And now, after posting FIP marks of 4.00 and 4.02 the past two seasons it can be reasonably assured of the pitcher Pavano is today.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Bruce Chen Reups For 2011
With the recent signing of Jeff Francis, it looked as through the Royals might have filled out their starting staff. But given the tenuous nature of players like Francis and Gil Meche, both of whom were injured for significant portions of 2011, the team decided to bring back Bruce Chen to add depth.
The 33 year-old Chen had a strong 2010 showing with the Royals, posting a 4.17 ERA in 140 innings of work. That performance might be the second best of his twelve year Major League career that has been far more bad than good. He's the owner of a career 4.64 ERA, and judging by his career FIP of 5.13, that may actually be a tad on the lucky side. While he has demonstrated some ability to miss bats with a 7.00 career strikeout rate, he walks more than you'd like (3.35) and doesn't get enough ground balls (35.1%).
Chen is essentially the definition of a back-end junk-baller. With a fastball that averaged just 86.2 last year, he's not going to throw the ball by anyone, but he's got five pitches and he'll throw them all at you. That helps him keep hitters off balance, but doesn't keep him from being eminently hittable. That Chen was able to have success in 2010 had little to do with any change in who he was as a pitcher, and far more to do with luck. He was the beneficiary of both a favorable BABIP (.286) and a very lucky 8.1% HR/FB rate (career 13.3%) which helped negate his fly-ball tendencies. Unfortunately, the likelihood of him being so fortunate again is, well, slim.
Chen has spent his career bouncing between the back-end of eleven teams rotations and it's likely that he'll do the same for the Royals. He should provide needed depth that will insulate the team from injury and allow the Royals to keep their top pitching prospects in the Minors for as long as possible, buying them valuable developmental time. It's probably not the most inspired signing in the world, but you could do worse things with 2.0m in guaranteed money.
The 33 year-old Chen had a strong 2010 showing with the Royals, posting a 4.17 ERA in 140 innings of work. That performance might be the second best of his twelve year Major League career that has been far more bad than good. He's the owner of a career 4.64 ERA, and judging by his career FIP of 5.13, that may actually be a tad on the lucky side. While he has demonstrated some ability to miss bats with a 7.00 career strikeout rate, he walks more than you'd like (3.35) and doesn't get enough ground balls (35.1%).
Chen is essentially the definition of a back-end junk-baller. With a fastball that averaged just 86.2 last year, he's not going to throw the ball by anyone, but he's got five pitches and he'll throw them all at you. That helps him keep hitters off balance, but doesn't keep him from being eminently hittable. That Chen was able to have success in 2010 had little to do with any change in who he was as a pitcher, and far more to do with luck. He was the beneficiary of both a favorable BABIP (.286) and a very lucky 8.1% HR/FB rate (career 13.3%) which helped negate his fly-ball tendencies. Unfortunately, the likelihood of him being so fortunate again is, well, slim.
Chen has spent his career bouncing between the back-end of eleven teams rotations and it's likely that he'll do the same for the Royals. He should provide needed depth that will insulate the team from injury and allow the Royals to keep their top pitching prospects in the Minors for as long as possible, buying them valuable developmental time. It's probably not the most inspired signing in the world, but you could do worse things with 2.0m in guaranteed money.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Dayton Moore Changes Tact, Makes Intelligent Signing
We've all gotten pretty used to Dayton Moore making some terrible free agent decisions. Actually, it's pretty much the only thing Royals fans know. So when word came out that he had signed former Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis for 2m plus incentives, it was a bit surprising. Not only was Francis not a former member of the Braves - something that had always seemed to be a Dayton Moore prerequisite - he didn't overpay by millions of dollar either.
Strange indeed.
Obviously Francis wasn't exactly the cream of the free agent crop, but while many have wondered where pitchers trying rebuild value off injury such as Brandon Webb, Chris Young, and Justin Duchscherer would land, Francis is perhaps the safest bet of the bunch.
Of course Francis comes with plenty of red flags. After pitching through shoulder soreness for much of the 2008 season, and struggling in the process, Francis finally succumbed and underwent arthroscopic surgery on his pitching arm that caused him to miss the entirety of the 2009 season and the first part of 2010. On the surface there might not seem to be much to indicate he'd return to form given his 5.00 ERA last year, but a quick look at his rate stats shows that underneath the ugly ERA was the Francis of old. Compare if you would his career rate stats against those he posted in 2010.
Career: 6.15K - 2.13BB - 43.2%GB
2010: 5.78K - 1.98BB - 47.0%GB
That pitching formula - despite the ugly ERA - actually produced Francis' best FIP (3.88) and xFIP (3.94) metrics ever. If that ground ball rate is less of an aberration and more of a new fact of Francis' post surgery pitching reality, it's possible he could actually be a better pitcher than the one he was prior.
The signing isn't entirely dissimilar from the one the Tigers made of Brad Penny. While neither pitcher is a lock to be a significant improvement on options already available internally, they both have ample upside to turn in very good seasons, and good reasons to expect that they will.
While the Tigers signing of Penny was motivated by a desire to add depth and potentially acquire a veteran innings eater for the back of their rotation, the Royals likely have other interests. In the Royals case, should Francis turn in a strong 2011 as I expect he will, he should be a strong candidate for a mid-season trade that could net the Royals still more prospects to add to their already overflowing Minor League depth. Or the Royals could let the season play out in the hope that he could net them a draft pick or two in free agent compensation.
In either case, the Royals win. They've added a capable arm who can help them win games in 2010, and bought themselves an inexpensive lottery ticket that has a good chance of coming up a prospect winner. And even if Francis flops, at just 2m, they can't lose.
It's a strange thing to see in Royal-land, but it can be a beautiful thing when a signing makes sense.
Strange indeed.
Obviously Francis wasn't exactly the cream of the free agent crop, but while many have wondered where pitchers trying rebuild value off injury such as Brandon Webb, Chris Young, and Justin Duchscherer would land, Francis is perhaps the safest bet of the bunch.
Of course Francis comes with plenty of red flags. After pitching through shoulder soreness for much of the 2008 season, and struggling in the process, Francis finally succumbed and underwent arthroscopic surgery on his pitching arm that caused him to miss the entirety of the 2009 season and the first part of 2010. On the surface there might not seem to be much to indicate he'd return to form given his 5.00 ERA last year, but a quick look at his rate stats shows that underneath the ugly ERA was the Francis of old. Compare if you would his career rate stats against those he posted in 2010.
Career: 6.15K - 2.13BB - 43.2%GB
2010: 5.78K - 1.98BB - 47.0%GB
That pitching formula - despite the ugly ERA - actually produced Francis' best FIP (3.88) and xFIP (3.94) metrics ever. If that ground ball rate is less of an aberration and more of a new fact of Francis' post surgery pitching reality, it's possible he could actually be a better pitcher than the one he was prior.
The signing isn't entirely dissimilar from the one the Tigers made of Brad Penny. While neither pitcher is a lock to be a significant improvement on options already available internally, they both have ample upside to turn in very good seasons, and good reasons to expect that they will.
While the Tigers signing of Penny was motivated by a desire to add depth and potentially acquire a veteran innings eater for the back of their rotation, the Royals likely have other interests. In the Royals case, should Francis turn in a strong 2011 as I expect he will, he should be a strong candidate for a mid-season trade that could net the Royals still more prospects to add to their already overflowing Minor League depth. Or the Royals could let the season play out in the hope that he could net them a draft pick or two in free agent compensation.
In either case, the Royals win. They've added a capable arm who can help them win games in 2010, and bought themselves an inexpensive lottery ticket that has a good chance of coming up a prospect winner. And even if Francis flops, at just 2m, they can't lose.
It's a strange thing to see in Royal-land, but it can be a beautiful thing when a signing makes sense.
Twins Bring Back Jim Thome for 2011
Regardless of the lens through which you choose to view the game of baseball, or how you chose to evaluate performance, Jim Thome's production in 2010 was big. All by itself with no perspective given, a .283 average, with 25 home runs would be good - and if you're someone who prefers your baseball analysis as simple as possible, you're going to like that production. Indeed just 20 players other players posted an average as good with as many home runs.
Prefer your statistics to be more advanced? His 1.039 OPS would've been third to just Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera. His .437 wOBA third to Hamilton and Joey Votto. How about player value? Thome's 3.6 WAR was the best of any designated hitter, while former Twin David Ortiz (3.3) came in second.
The kicker to all that of course is that the Twins were able to sign him for the heinous base salary of 1.6m - but don't worry, he earned another 200k in incentives for reaching 300 plate appearances - for a grand total of 1.8m
If the voices in your head are saying something along the lines of, "Hold on... what?" you're not alone.
How exactly did we get to a point where Thome, a near certain Hall Of Famer, and one of baseball's most beloved characters could barely get 1.5m guaranteed? I mean, the White Sox gave Mark Teahan (yeah, the Mark Teahan who was supposed to replace Thome) three years and 14m. But picking on the White Sox alone isn't fair. This isn't the case of one team making a bad decision, this is a situation where 29 other teams legitimately sat down and said, "no, we're not interested in Jim Thome even at just two million."
The Royals, who dug up 2.75m for Rick Ankiel and another 1.7m for Willie Bloomquist apparently couldn't dig enough change out of the couch for Thome. I guess paying Jose Guillen 12m to clog up the DH spot was a better play. Neither could the Indians, who instead signed Russell Branyan for 1.5m to be a left handed option off the bench before trading him to the Mariners where he replaced their other DH, perennial Citizen Of The Year Award Winner Milton Bradley.
He'd have been the best hitter on any of those teams - by a vast margin - and could've been had for the baseball equivalent of loose change. How the hell did this happen?
The most likely explanation is that executives saw his declining performance - his OPS in 2009 was JUST .847, combined it with his advancing age and thought he was done for. I guess that makes some sense. Not nearly enough sense mind you, but some. Even when you consider that his market was limited to the 14 AL teams where he could serve as a DH, there are a lot of teams (all of them) that could've used Thome's bat in a bench role - which is precisely the roll for which the Twins signed Thome.
I say all of that to say this: how the hell did we wind up back at the EXACT SAME PLACE????
It's now 2010 instead of 2009 and still no one could make an offer that topped the reported 4m the Rangers offered? Really? It would appear that Thome considered more things than just money - there is speculation he chose the Twins slightly smaller 3m + incentives deal to be closer to his family in Chiacgo, and obviously the Twins are a more competitive club than, say, the Mariners. But... seriously?
Perhaps the only thing more criminal than the Twins being able to sign Thome for 1.5m in 2010 off his .847 OPS in the year before is them signing him for 3.0m in 2011 off his 1.037 OPS.
But let's add some important perspective - I'm not by any means under the impression that Thome is going to repeat his 2010 season, not by a long shot. Other than Albert Pujols, I don't expect anyone to post back-to-back 1.000 OPS seasons. But as Thome showed in 2010 he can still demolish right-handed pitching, and while it's unlikely that he'll do so to the same extent in 2011, I'm guessing he'll still hit them plenty hard. Certainly projecting him to a .850 OPS isn't exactly going out on any kind of a limb.
Further, Thome doesn't fill an obvious hole. Jason Kubel came into 2010 as the Twins every-day designated hitter and he'll likely enter 2011 with the same role. What the Twins really could've used was a right-handed hitter to platoon with Kubel who, like Thome, struggles mightily with left-handed pitching. Personally, I think they'd have been better served by signing either Manny Ramirez or Vlad Guerrero who could platoon in the DH role and provide the Twins with some desperately needed pop from the right side. Clearly the Twins felt otherwise.
Beyond what Thome brings on the field, and beyond the immeasurable intangibles he brings to the clubhouse - he provides something else to the Twins - insurance on Justin Morneau's concussion.
Free agency is a mixed bag. Sometimes you know from the start that a deal is going to implode. Sometimes you know it'll work out. And yes, sometimes there are steals. But they should never be this obvious.
Prefer your statistics to be more advanced? His 1.039 OPS would've been third to just Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera. His .437 wOBA third to Hamilton and Joey Votto. How about player value? Thome's 3.6 WAR was the best of any designated hitter, while former Twin David Ortiz (3.3) came in second.
The kicker to all that of course is that the Twins were able to sign him for the heinous base salary of 1.6m - but don't worry, he earned another 200k in incentives for reaching 300 plate appearances - for a grand total of 1.8m
If the voices in your head are saying something along the lines of, "Hold on... what?" you're not alone.
How exactly did we get to a point where Thome, a near certain Hall Of Famer, and one of baseball's most beloved characters could barely get 1.5m guaranteed? I mean, the White Sox gave Mark Teahan (yeah, the Mark Teahan who was supposed to replace Thome) three years and 14m. But picking on the White Sox alone isn't fair. This isn't the case of one team making a bad decision, this is a situation where 29 other teams legitimately sat down and said, "no, we're not interested in Jim Thome even at just two million."
The Royals, who dug up 2.75m for Rick Ankiel and another 1.7m for Willie Bloomquist apparently couldn't dig enough change out of the couch for Thome. I guess paying Jose Guillen 12m to clog up the DH spot was a better play. Neither could the Indians, who instead signed Russell Branyan for 1.5m to be a left handed option off the bench before trading him to the Mariners where he replaced their other DH, perennial Citizen Of The Year Award Winner Milton Bradley.
He'd have been the best hitter on any of those teams - by a vast margin - and could've been had for the baseball equivalent of loose change. How the hell did this happen?
The most likely explanation is that executives saw his declining performance - his OPS in 2009 was JUST .847, combined it with his advancing age and thought he was done for. I guess that makes some sense. Not nearly enough sense mind you, but some. Even when you consider that his market was limited to the 14 AL teams where he could serve as a DH, there are a lot of teams (all of them) that could've used Thome's bat in a bench role - which is precisely the roll for which the Twins signed Thome.
I say all of that to say this: how the hell did we wind up back at the EXACT SAME PLACE????
It's now 2010 instead of 2009 and still no one could make an offer that topped the reported 4m the Rangers offered? Really? It would appear that Thome considered more things than just money - there is speculation he chose the Twins slightly smaller 3m + incentives deal to be closer to his family in Chiacgo, and obviously the Twins are a more competitive club than, say, the Mariners. But... seriously?
Perhaps the only thing more criminal than the Twins being able to sign Thome for 1.5m in 2010 off his .847 OPS in the year before is them signing him for 3.0m in 2011 off his 1.037 OPS.
But let's add some important perspective - I'm not by any means under the impression that Thome is going to repeat his 2010 season, not by a long shot. Other than Albert Pujols, I don't expect anyone to post back-to-back 1.000 OPS seasons. But as Thome showed in 2010 he can still demolish right-handed pitching, and while it's unlikely that he'll do so to the same extent in 2011, I'm guessing he'll still hit them plenty hard. Certainly projecting him to a .850 OPS isn't exactly going out on any kind of a limb.
Further, Thome doesn't fill an obvious hole. Jason Kubel came into 2010 as the Twins every-day designated hitter and he'll likely enter 2011 with the same role. What the Twins really could've used was a right-handed hitter to platoon with Kubel who, like Thome, struggles mightily with left-handed pitching. Personally, I think they'd have been better served by signing either Manny Ramirez or Vlad Guerrero who could platoon in the DH role and provide the Twins with some desperately needed pop from the right side. Clearly the Twins felt otherwise.
Beyond what Thome brings on the field, and beyond the immeasurable intangibles he brings to the clubhouse - he provides something else to the Twins - insurance on Justin Morneau's concussion.
Free agency is a mixed bag. Sometimes you know from the start that a deal is going to implode. Sometimes you know it'll work out. And yes, sometimes there are steals. But they should never be this obvious.
Tigers Sign Ryan Raburn to Two Year Contract
In my most recent Tigers Payroll Estimate I pegged Ryan Raburn as being in line for 1.5m in arbitration. Given a repeat of his 2010 or 2009 performance, which I think is likely, I'd have then estimated him at about 3.5m in 2011. So when the Tigers announced that they had agreed on a two-year extension with Raburn for just 3.4m - about half of my expectation of what it would cost for his 2010 and 2011 seasons - you can be assured that I raised an eyebrow.
I'm quite confident that the reason for my surprise wasn't because my estimates were off, to the contrary I'm confident that I'll prove to be very close in far more of my estimates than not - but rather that the Tigers got a great deal. How good? Well, we could simply say that the Tigers got Raburn for perhaps half of what it would've cost through arbitration and leave it at that, but we can do better.
Amongst all Major League left fielders who had enough at-bats to qualify, Raburn's 2.1 WAR in 2010 would've been tied for 11th with the Twins Delmon Young. And just 0.1 WAR behind Juan Pierre of the White Sox and Bobby Abreu of the Angels.
Would've been, except Raburn didn't have enough at-bats to qualify.
In just 371 at-bats, or about 3/5 of a season, Raburn managed to provide as much production as players with nearly twice as many plate appearances. Indeed, if you were to project Raburn's production over a full 550 at-bat season, he'd have been worth 3.1 WAR, which would've left only this list of players ahead of him:
Josh Hamilton (8.0), Matt Holiday (6.9), Carl Crawford (6.9), Carlos Gonzalez (6.0), Aubrey Huff (5.7), Brett Gardner (5.4), and Ryan Braun (4.2).
Not bad company, and given that Huff started a whooping 24 games in left, you could be forgiven if you excluded him from the list.
What's perplexing is that if you were forced to judge Raburn strictly on the amount of praise or neglect he gets from Tiger fans, you'd be almost certain to come away with the impression that he was a bench player at best.
I don't want to come across as a Raburn apologist - he's a player with some clear weaknesses - specifically in the field and as a hitter with a pretty severe platoon split against right-handed pitching. He's clearly not in the top-tier of the games left fielders like Crawford, Holliday, Gonzalez, or Braun, but he's also a better player than 20 or so other teams are going to run out on a daily basis - and probably better than anyone else in the Central.
At the same time, his weaknesses are probably not as bad as they're made out to be. While Raburn is frequently his own worst enemy, getting bad reads, taking questionable routes, and bobbling balls, we should probably cut him some slack. During his time with the Tigers, Raburn has been used primarily as a utility player, logging time at every position other than shortstop and catcher. Thankfully he finally seems to have settled in left field, and his defense there (+2.8 UZR for his career) hasn't been that bad at all.
Further, during the past two seasons - those in which he's come closest to regular playing time - his performance against right handers hasn't necessarily been bench-worthy as he posted an .800 OPS against them in 2009 and a .753 OPS in 2010.
In the end however, Raburn is mostly about mashing left-handed pitching, and frankly, there aren't a ton who do that better. Raburn's .929 OPS vs lefties in 2010 was good for 26th best in baseball overall (Victor Martinez was 1st and Miguel Cabrera 8th!). In 2009, his .976 OPS was 22nd best and better than anyone else on the Tigers, Cabrera included.
I've seen some questions about how Raburn will fare in a full-time role. Count me in the group of the unconcerned. Raburn might not make it pretty, but I expect his defense will be around league average or just slightly worse. And offensively, he hasn't been nearly the liability vs righties that some seem to think.
Overall, I expect Raburn will provide an OPS in the neighborhood of .820 with defense that shouldn't be worse than 5 runs below average. Over a full season that should be worst at least 3 WAR, and there's plenty of potential for more. If I'm right that would mean the Tigers are in line for at least 6 WAR over the next two years. In free agency, that would probably be worth at least 20m. The Tigers will get it 3.5m.
Sheesh.
I'm quite confident that the reason for my surprise wasn't because my estimates were off, to the contrary I'm confident that I'll prove to be very close in far more of my estimates than not - but rather that the Tigers got a great deal. How good? Well, we could simply say that the Tigers got Raburn for perhaps half of what it would've cost through arbitration and leave it at that, but we can do better.
Amongst all Major League left fielders who had enough at-bats to qualify, Raburn's 2.1 WAR in 2010 would've been tied for 11th with the Twins Delmon Young. And just 0.1 WAR behind Juan Pierre of the White Sox and Bobby Abreu of the Angels.
Would've been, except Raburn didn't have enough at-bats to qualify.
In just 371 at-bats, or about 3/5 of a season, Raburn managed to provide as much production as players with nearly twice as many plate appearances. Indeed, if you were to project Raburn's production over a full 550 at-bat season, he'd have been worth 3.1 WAR, which would've left only this list of players ahead of him:
Josh Hamilton (8.0), Matt Holiday (6.9), Carl Crawford (6.9), Carlos Gonzalez (6.0), Aubrey Huff (5.7), Brett Gardner (5.4), and Ryan Braun (4.2).
Not bad company, and given that Huff started a whooping 24 games in left, you could be forgiven if you excluded him from the list.
What's perplexing is that if you were forced to judge Raburn strictly on the amount of praise or neglect he gets from Tiger fans, you'd be almost certain to come away with the impression that he was a bench player at best.
I don't want to come across as a Raburn apologist - he's a player with some clear weaknesses - specifically in the field and as a hitter with a pretty severe platoon split against right-handed pitching. He's clearly not in the top-tier of the games left fielders like Crawford, Holliday, Gonzalez, or Braun, but he's also a better player than 20 or so other teams are going to run out on a daily basis - and probably better than anyone else in the Central.
At the same time, his weaknesses are probably not as bad as they're made out to be. While Raburn is frequently his own worst enemy, getting bad reads, taking questionable routes, and bobbling balls, we should probably cut him some slack. During his time with the Tigers, Raburn has been used primarily as a utility player, logging time at every position other than shortstop and catcher. Thankfully he finally seems to have settled in left field, and his defense there (+2.8 UZR for his career) hasn't been that bad at all.
Further, during the past two seasons - those in which he's come closest to regular playing time - his performance against right handers hasn't necessarily been bench-worthy as he posted an .800 OPS against them in 2009 and a .753 OPS in 2010.
In the end however, Raburn is mostly about mashing left-handed pitching, and frankly, there aren't a ton who do that better. Raburn's .929 OPS vs lefties in 2010 was good for 26th best in baseball overall (Victor Martinez was 1st and Miguel Cabrera 8th!). In 2009, his .976 OPS was 22nd best and better than anyone else on the Tigers, Cabrera included.
I've seen some questions about how Raburn will fare in a full-time role. Count me in the group of the unconcerned. Raburn might not make it pretty, but I expect his defense will be around league average or just slightly worse. And offensively, he hasn't been nearly the liability vs righties that some seem to think.
Overall, I expect Raburn will provide an OPS in the neighborhood of .820 with defense that shouldn't be worse than 5 runs below average. Over a full season that should be worst at least 3 WAR, and there's plenty of potential for more. If I'm right that would mean the Tigers are in line for at least 6 WAR over the next two years. In free agency, that would probably be worth at least 20m. The Tigers will get it 3.5m.
Sheesh.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Tigers Sign Brad Penny. Where Does That Leave Armando Galarraga?
Tigers General Manager Dave Drombrowski has publicly hinted at the idea of adding another starter to his rotation a few times this off season, and with the recent signing of Brad Penny, he's finally made that a reality. By moving Phil Coke to the rotation, the Tigers already had a full five man rotation, but the addition of Penny gives the team additional depth that, beyond Andrew Oliver, was lacking internally.
While Penny himself hasn't been anything particularly special the past three years, having posted a 5.02 ERA while struggling through various injuries, he has been a steady if unspectacular innings eater throughout his career posting a career ERA of 4.11 with an FIP of 3.98 and an xFIP of 4.19. Despite a mid-90s fastball (93.4mph career / 94.1mph 2010), Penny's rate stats profile more like that of a inning-eating-sinkerballer: 6.27K/2.85BB-45.7GB.
What the Tigers will get out of Penny of course, remains something of a mystery. If healthy, Penny could be good for around 170-190 innings with an ERA in the low 4s. Poor results aside, an examination of Penny's rate stats the past three seasons reveals very little change other than a slight (but not completely insignificant) decline in his strikeout rate. He remains an average to somewhat low strikeout pitcher with average or slightly better walk rates and solid/plus ground ball tendencies. Of course, the issue of his health remains a big IF given his past three seasons. He could also pitch the way he did in 2008 or 2009, or end up making just nine starts as he did in 2010 for the Cardinals.
That being said, speculating on injuries is a fools errand. What we should be taking into account is that the Tigers had a need - someone who could eat innings at the bottom of the rotation - and while Penny comes with plenty of risk, he also comes with an upside that former 5th starter Armando Galarraga doesn't possess. For what it's worth, Bill James projects Galarraga for 178 innings of a 4.45 ERA. While projections aren't out yet for Penny, one would assume they won't be good given his performance over the past three seasons.
But with Penny signed, the Tigers have given themselves something more difficult to measure than even advanced metrics can quantify - peace of mind. Penny gives the Tigers depth that insulates them against the all-too-common pitching injury, a veteran presence and a proven innings eater - and he does so at a cut-throat rate.
The worst case scenario for this signing is that Penny, who struggled in the AL during his only stint in Boston, tanks and is summarily released, traded, or banished to mop-up duty. The best case of course, is significantly better. While some might be quick to label the signing as insignificant (something it may very well end up being) I like it because even in its insignificance, it is meaningful.
There are other angles of this signing to explore however. As implied in the title of this post, one has to wonder what this ultimately means for the future of Galarraga. While I've seen some speculation that he may become trade bait, that would seem to run counter to what I imagine Dombrowski's real intent is - to create depth that protects the team against injury or ineffectiveness. Short term, I expect the Tigers to utilize Galarraga in a long-relief role where he'll almost certainly prove to be more effective than Eddie Bonine was in 2010. Long term however, he remains a viable option as a #4 or #5 starter on most teams. Whether that team will be the Tigers or not will likely have much to do with how the Tigers relatively deep corps of pitching prospects develops.
Speaking of pitching prospects, I also wonder what this says about the Tigers short-term view of Andrew Oliver. While Oliver possesses good stuff, with a fastball that averages 93.8mph and a good slider with late break that will be very effective as a put-away pitch against both lefties and righties. His changeup is still developing and in the long run, that will make him vulnerable to lefties. More importantly, his control is still very much a work in progress as this point. While Oliver is rightfully well-regarded as a pitching prospect, his reputation may be ahead of his refined talents.
That being said, Oliver's short-term outlook shouldn't cloud the long-term one, he's still a rare beast, a live-armed lefty who, despite his flaws, projects as a #2 or #3 pitcher. It just seems that the Tigers brain-trust doesn't believe his time is now.
While Penny himself hasn't been anything particularly special the past three years, having posted a 5.02 ERA while struggling through various injuries, he has been a steady if unspectacular innings eater throughout his career posting a career ERA of 4.11 with an FIP of 3.98 and an xFIP of 4.19. Despite a mid-90s fastball (93.4mph career / 94.1mph 2010), Penny's rate stats profile more like that of a inning-eating-sinkerballer: 6.27K/2.85BB-45.7GB.
What the Tigers will get out of Penny of course, remains something of a mystery. If healthy, Penny could be good for around 170-190 innings with an ERA in the low 4s. Poor results aside, an examination of Penny's rate stats the past three seasons reveals very little change other than a slight (but not completely insignificant) decline in his strikeout rate. He remains an average to somewhat low strikeout pitcher with average or slightly better walk rates and solid/plus ground ball tendencies. Of course, the issue of his health remains a big IF given his past three seasons. He could also pitch the way he did in 2008 or 2009, or end up making just nine starts as he did in 2010 for the Cardinals.
That being said, speculating on injuries is a fools errand. What we should be taking into account is that the Tigers had a need - someone who could eat innings at the bottom of the rotation - and while Penny comes with plenty of risk, he also comes with an upside that former 5th starter Armando Galarraga doesn't possess. For what it's worth, Bill James projects Galarraga for 178 innings of a 4.45 ERA. While projections aren't out yet for Penny, one would assume they won't be good given his performance over the past three seasons.
But with Penny signed, the Tigers have given themselves something more difficult to measure than even advanced metrics can quantify - peace of mind. Penny gives the Tigers depth that insulates them against the all-too-common pitching injury, a veteran presence and a proven innings eater - and he does so at a cut-throat rate.
The worst case scenario for this signing is that Penny, who struggled in the AL during his only stint in Boston, tanks and is summarily released, traded, or banished to mop-up duty. The best case of course, is significantly better. While some might be quick to label the signing as insignificant (something it may very well end up being) I like it because even in its insignificance, it is meaningful.
There are other angles of this signing to explore however. As implied in the title of this post, one has to wonder what this ultimately means for the future of Galarraga. While I've seen some speculation that he may become trade bait, that would seem to run counter to what I imagine Dombrowski's real intent is - to create depth that protects the team against injury or ineffectiveness. Short term, I expect the Tigers to utilize Galarraga in a long-relief role where he'll almost certainly prove to be more effective than Eddie Bonine was in 2010. Long term however, he remains a viable option as a #4 or #5 starter on most teams. Whether that team will be the Tigers or not will likely have much to do with how the Tigers relatively deep corps of pitching prospects develops.
Speaking of pitching prospects, I also wonder what this says about the Tigers short-term view of Andrew Oliver. While Oliver possesses good stuff, with a fastball that averages 93.8mph and a good slider with late break that will be very effective as a put-away pitch against both lefties and righties. His changeup is still developing and in the long run, that will make him vulnerable to lefties. More importantly, his control is still very much a work in progress as this point. While Oliver is rightfully well-regarded as a pitching prospect, his reputation may be ahead of his refined talents.
That being said, Oliver's short-term outlook shouldn't cloud the long-term one, he's still a rare beast, a live-armed lefty who, despite his flaws, projects as a #2 or #3 pitcher. It just seems that the Tigers brain-trust doesn't believe his time is now.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
White Sox Sign Will Ohman And What It Means For Chris Sale
In a move to solidify their bullpen, the White Sox signed left hander Will Ohman to a two-year, four million dollar contract. If the contact is balanced, it would bring my 2011 payroll estimate for the White Sox to 126.25m. I've already expended a lot of words here at Central In Focus extolling poor logic in handing relievers three-year deals - and while this deal is for just two years, it violates the same basic tenets.
In signing Ohman, owner of a career 4.09 ERA to a two year deal, they're gambling that the lefty specialist can not only repeat his success of 2010, but that he can do it in back-to-back seasons. His career track-record suggests it's a possibility, but his 2009 season should give one pause.
OPS allowed vs lefthanders by year:
2010: .636
2009: .889
2008: .571
2007: .718
2006: .535
2005: .593
At just 2m per year, the Ohman deal is unlikely to have any significant effect one way or another. But I do question the necessity of offering two years to a player who is valuable essentially as a lefty specialist in low-leverage situations.
Perhaps more than anything, the Ohman signing throws into doubt what the White Sox plans are for the young Chris Sale. With Ohman in place to take care of lefty-lefty situations in the 6th and 7th innings, and Matt Thornton a known commodity for the late innings, will the White Sox choose to keep Sale in the rotation even if it means keeping him in AAA once Jake Peavy returns? Or will they keep Sale in the bullpen and roll with three lefties?
Good problems to have I suppose.
In signing Ohman, owner of a career 4.09 ERA to a two year deal, they're gambling that the lefty specialist can not only repeat his success of 2010, but that he can do it in back-to-back seasons. His career track-record suggests it's a possibility, but his 2009 season should give one pause.
OPS allowed vs lefthanders by year:
2010: .636
2009: .889
2008: .571
2007: .718
2006: .535
2005: .593
At just 2m per year, the Ohman deal is unlikely to have any significant effect one way or another. But I do question the necessity of offering two years to a player who is valuable essentially as a lefty specialist in low-leverage situations.
Perhaps more than anything, the Ohman signing throws into doubt what the White Sox plans are for the young Chris Sale. With Ohman in place to take care of lefty-lefty situations in the 6th and 7th innings, and Matt Thornton a known commodity for the late innings, will the White Sox choose to keep Sale in the rotation even if it means keeping him in AAA once Jake Peavy returns? Or will they keep Sale in the bullpen and roll with three lefties?
Good problems to have I suppose.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Indians Temporarily Emerge From Hiberation - Sign Kearns
... Immediately return to hibernation.
Ok, that's not fair. We knew going into this off season that the Indians were going to have quite a bit less payroll flexibility than they had in 2010. Intuitively, we also knew that meant that significant free agent acquisitions were unlikely. Fear not though Indians fans, while other teams are handing out what I generally consider to be insane contracts to players entering (or already into) their decline years, the best free agent signings are typically made during the last couple months. Furthermore, they're generally deals of little overall value.
Need examples?
In signing Austin Kearns to be their 4th outfielder, the Indians have not only solidified their outfield for 2011 - they've also gained some measure of isolation against Michael Brantley having a repeat of his disappointing 2010 season. While Brantley was awful at the plate (.284 wOBA) he was similarly poor in the field. Kearns, by contrast has been a plus defender throughout his career and showed in 2010 that he can still be somewhat effective at the plate.
Most importantly, the signing ran the team just 1.3m - something Kearns and his 1.5 WAR in 2010 more than justified.
Ok, that's not fair. We knew going into this off season that the Indians were going to have quite a bit less payroll flexibility than they had in 2010. Intuitively, we also knew that meant that significant free agent acquisitions were unlikely. Fear not though Indians fans, while other teams are handing out what I generally consider to be insane contracts to players entering (or already into) their decline years, the best free agent signings are typically made during the last couple months. Furthermore, they're generally deals of little overall value.
Need examples?
In signing Austin Kearns to be their 4th outfielder, the Indians have not only solidified their outfield for 2011 - they've also gained some measure of isolation against Michael Brantley having a repeat of his disappointing 2010 season. While Brantley was awful at the plate (.284 wOBA) he was similarly poor in the field. Kearns, by contrast has been a plus defender throughout his career and showed in 2010 that he can still be somewhat effective at the plate.
Most importantly, the signing ran the team just 1.3m - something Kearns and his 1.5 WAR in 2010 more than justified.
Monday, December 20, 2010
The Kansas City Braves
I've been made aware that there has been "Bigger News" out of Kansas City recently than the signings of Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francouer, and I will certainly expound on that subject soon. But with Alex Gordon likely to spend his first full season in the outfield in 2010, and long-time outfield David DeJesus having been traded away, the Royals were in need of some help in the outfield.
They could've done better. Or maybe I should say, they couldn't have done much worse. It's moves like these by General Manager Dayton Moore that I just don't get.
It's not that the price tags of either Francouer (2.5m) or Cabrera (1.25m with another 250k in incentives) are exorbitant - it's that the signings are essentially pointless. Neither Cabrera, who was worth a stunningly bad -1.2 WAR (which is astonishingly hard to pull off) nor Francouer, who was worth 0.7 WAR are going to add anything of value to the Royals. Francouer hasn't posted an OPS over .740 since 2007, and Cabrera has a career OPS of just .707 and was in the .670 range last year.
Why, pray tell, would a team that will be entering it's 20th or so straight rebuilding year waste two roster spots on that pair? Is there something that Cabrera is going to give you in center that Mitch Maier or Jarrod Dyson wont?
Is there something that Jeff Francouer is going to do for a franchise that Andrew Jones couldn't do? Word is he wants a full-time job, and heavens knows he isn't going to get one with a playoff caliber squad. He still looks like he has at least a little something to give.
I understand that the outfield situation for the Royals was a bit more unsettled prior to the "Bigger News" of this week, but still, these signings made little sense. It just seems such a needless waste of 3.75m perfectly good dollars.
That might not seem like much to most, but properly invested, that money could've been used to bring in a player who at least had a chance, with a good year, of qualifying as a Type-B free agent and potentially helping the Royals in 2011, and more importantly, providing the franchise with another valuable draft pick.
Given a chance to do something useful, it's disappointing to see Moore make moves with essentially zero chance of helping the Royals either now or in the future.
They could've done better. Or maybe I should say, they couldn't have done much worse. It's moves like these by General Manager Dayton Moore that I just don't get.
It's not that the price tags of either Francouer (2.5m) or Cabrera (1.25m with another 250k in incentives) are exorbitant - it's that the signings are essentially pointless. Neither Cabrera, who was worth a stunningly bad -1.2 WAR (which is astonishingly hard to pull off) nor Francouer, who was worth 0.7 WAR are going to add anything of value to the Royals. Francouer hasn't posted an OPS over .740 since 2007, and Cabrera has a career OPS of just .707 and was in the .670 range last year.
Why, pray tell, would a team that will be entering it's 20th or so straight rebuilding year waste two roster spots on that pair? Is there something that Cabrera is going to give you in center that Mitch Maier or Jarrod Dyson wont?
Is there something that Jeff Francouer is going to do for a franchise that Andrew Jones couldn't do? Word is he wants a full-time job, and heavens knows he isn't going to get one with a playoff caliber squad. He still looks like he has at least a little something to give.
I understand that the outfield situation for the Royals was a bit more unsettled prior to the "Bigger News" of this week, but still, these signings made little sense. It just seems such a needless waste of 3.75m perfectly good dollars.
That might not seem like much to most, but properly invested, that money could've been used to bring in a player who at least had a chance, with a good year, of qualifying as a Type-B free agent and potentially helping the Royals in 2011, and more importantly, providing the franchise with another valuable draft pick.
Given a chance to do something useful, it's disappointing to see Moore make moves with essentially zero chance of helping the Royals either now or in the future.
Tigers Bring Back Magglio Ordonez
With his teams greatest needs - catching and bullpen help - completed, and outfield stars Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth signed away on absurd contracts, Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski has made perhaps the Tigers last significant signing of the off season by bringing back long-time right fielder and former MVP Magglio Ordonez on a one-year, ten million dollar deal.
After a down 2009 season, there was a lot of hand-wringing within the Tigers fanbase about whether or not he'd be a capable option for the team in 2010. In detailing players who needed to bounce back last March, I identified Magglio Ordonez as one of the two candidates on the Tigers, surmising;
In general, that was precisely the case as Ordonez posted a .852 OPS. Not quite a return to his previously prodigious levels of production, but well above average all the same. Perhaps just as importantly, Ordonez seemed to bounce back a bit defensively too, posting a UZR/150 of +2.8. Ordonez has never been a standout with the glove, and all of the advanced defensive metrics has suggested as much since around 2007. Particularly alarming is we're the back-to-back -12 UZR/150 seasons Ordonez had in 2008 and 2009. Ordonez's defense was so bad that in 2009, despite posting a still solid .804 OPS, he was worth just 1.5 WAR.
So to see Magglio have a solid offensive bounce-back and to see him posting better defensive marks was certainly encouraging. Unfortunately, he went down mid-way through the year with a broken ankle and managed to log only about 60% of a full seasons worth of plate appearances. It was a disappointing end to a season that could've seen him rack up a WAR of 4.0 or so and perhaps propelled him to one last big-dollar multi-year deal.
Of course, player contracts are a zero-sum game and in this case, Magglio's loss could be the Tigers gain as his injury might have allowed Dombrowski to make perhaps the off season's best free agent signing. In a winter that's seen outfielders near thirty (or over) getting seven year deals, a multitude of relievers being handed three-year contracts that almost never work out, and multi-year deals for middling position players - the Tigers signed a legitimate 4 WAR candidate for just one year at a rate (10.0m) that actually trends toward the lower end of his possible production level.
Obviously Ordonez, who will be 37 during the 2011 season is no spring chicken. And though he may be a shell of the player that just four seasons ago was the AL MVP after a monster season, he's still capable of producing .300/.380/.480 - .860 offense and, depending upon how his ankle heals, and how successful his rehab is, could be at least around league average defensively.
In other words, for six fewer years, and 116m dollars less than the Nationals will be giving Jayson Werth - the Tigers stand a solid chance of getting about 80% of the production in 2010. That's the definition of a savvy signing.
After a down 2009 season, there was a lot of hand-wringing within the Tigers fanbase about whether or not he'd be a capable option for the team in 2010. In detailing players who needed to bounce back last March, I identified Magglio Ordonez as one of the two candidates on the Tigers, surmising;
"...while there was a significant decline in power production, there wasn't much change in Ordonez' ancillary numbers. His strikeout, walks, and line drive rates remain essentially unchanged. The one huge difference was in ground ball rate. Magglio, as is the case with most power hitters, has always been an extreme fly ball hitter. Last year that changed radically as his ground ball rate shot up to 51% from a career rate of 44.2%.Let's forget the last part about a lineup I expected to surprise people and focus on the GOOD prognostication about Ordonez having a solid bounce-back year shall we?
To me, that suggests a mechanical issue, and mechanical issues can be fixed with good coaching. I'd be far more concerned if we were seeing declines in the other numbers, as that would suggest lower bat speed, or declining ability to recognize and react to pitches. We don't see any of that. With a fine spring training under his belt where he mashed six extra base hits along with a pair of homers in just 51 at-bats, I'd expect Magglio to produce just fine in the middle of the Tigers order and provide a lot more run producing power to a lineup I think will surprise a lot of people in 2009."
In general, that was precisely the case as Ordonez posted a .852 OPS. Not quite a return to his previously prodigious levels of production, but well above average all the same. Perhaps just as importantly, Ordonez seemed to bounce back a bit defensively too, posting a UZR/150 of +2.8. Ordonez has never been a standout with the glove, and all of the advanced defensive metrics has suggested as much since around 2007. Particularly alarming is we're the back-to-back -12 UZR/150 seasons Ordonez had in 2008 and 2009. Ordonez's defense was so bad that in 2009, despite posting a still solid .804 OPS, he was worth just 1.5 WAR.
So to see Magglio have a solid offensive bounce-back and to see him posting better defensive marks was certainly encouraging. Unfortunately, he went down mid-way through the year with a broken ankle and managed to log only about 60% of a full seasons worth of plate appearances. It was a disappointing end to a season that could've seen him rack up a WAR of 4.0 or so and perhaps propelled him to one last big-dollar multi-year deal.
Of course, player contracts are a zero-sum game and in this case, Magglio's loss could be the Tigers gain as his injury might have allowed Dombrowski to make perhaps the off season's best free agent signing. In a winter that's seen outfielders near thirty (or over) getting seven year deals, a multitude of relievers being handed three-year contracts that almost never work out, and multi-year deals for middling position players - the Tigers signed a legitimate 4 WAR candidate for just one year at a rate (10.0m) that actually trends toward the lower end of his possible production level.
Obviously Ordonez, who will be 37 during the 2011 season is no spring chicken. And though he may be a shell of the player that just four seasons ago was the AL MVP after a monster season, he's still capable of producing .300/.380/.480 - .860 offense and, depending upon how his ankle heals, and how successful his rehab is, could be at least around league average defensively.
In other words, for six fewer years, and 116m dollars less than the Nationals will be giving Jayson Werth - the Tigers stand a solid chance of getting about 80% of the production in 2010. That's the definition of a savvy signing.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
White Sox Sign Jesse Crain
Seriously Kenny Williams? Seriously?
Ok, first of all, let me say that I really like Jesse Crain as a person and as a baseball player, and I'm going to gush a bit.
As a person, I respect the heck out of him for doing everything his organization have asked of him. I respect him for facing down the two surgeries with the highest washout rates for pitchers in baseball - rotator cuff and labrum - at the same time. And not flinching. Baseball is a game that can be played by anyone, but only a select few can tread the dangerously thin line that separates a Minor Leaguer from a Major Leaguer and tread right. The margin for error is simply too small. So to make it back from both of those injuries is impressive in any regard. That he tackled both at once and succeeded is border-line unbelievable.
As a player, I really like his stuff. He features two very solid offerings - a straight fastball that clocked in at 94.8mph in 2010, and a late-breaking slider with hard bite at 85.5mph. He'll also show hitters the occasional curve at 75.5mph. Those strong pitches allowed him to punch out 8.21 batters per nine in 2010.
While the fastball has good life, it's lack of vertical or horizontal movement makes it a pretty hittable pitch and throughout his career, it's ranked as his most hittable offering and came in at 1.13 runs BELOW average per 100 pitches in 2010. His slider has consistently been his best offering, and came in at 2.91 runs ABOVE average last year.
Where Jesse really struggles however, is in control. It's not that his walk rates are THAT bad - 3.57/9IP in 2010 - but they aren't great either. Worse, he has a tendency to miss IN the strikezone which, paired with generally mediocre ground ball rates - 39.2% in 2010 - leads to his fair share of home runs.
If White Sox fans are thinking that sounds familiar, it's because it is. Indeed, the Sox just traded away a player with strikingly similar peripherals in Scott Linebrink. They did so only to sign Crain to yet another three year deal after watching the one given to Linebrink explode on them to the extent that they had to pay the Braves 3.0m to take him on while getting back a paltry return.
This is where my, "Seriously Kenny..." bit comes in to play.
It's not that either Crain or Linebrink are BAD pitchers. Hardly. They both have above average stuff, both struggle somewhat with their command, and both are somewhat flyball prone. Furthermore, their issues with fly-balls were generally negated to some extent with their previous teams (Twins/Padres) as they played in pitcher friendly stadiums. When Linebrink moved into the hitters paradise that is US Cellular, he started giving up home runs at an astonishing rate.
I'm not projecting the same thing will happen with Crain - his ground ball rates are generally 5-8% better. But Crain also doesn't have nearly the track record of success that the Linebrink does, and a flat fastball like his is going to make him homer prone regardless of where he pitches.
I would've thought that seeing one three year deal for a reliever not work out as hoped would've perhaps highlighted the fact that giving relievers - who are notoriously unreliable - such long deals is ill-advised. Especially when that player has really only had one good year since recovering from multiple career-threatening injuries. But I guess that's why no one can ever guess what Kenny Williams is going to do. Because too often, much of it baffles everyone else. Lots of times in good ways. But I just can't see this being one of them.
I like Jesse Crain, a lot. I think he's a very solid pitcher. I think he'll continue to be a solid pitcher. But I also think White Sox fans are going to dislike him in short order because he's going to be asked to do something he's probably not well-equipped to do. Be a setup man in a ball park that really doesn't fit him. That won't be Jesse's fault of course - a man can't be something other than what he is - but will it lead some to question Williams' free agent strategies?
Kenny is taking a lot of high-risk, high-cost gambles this off season to try and get his club back into the playoffs. But if they don't pan out, he's going to be left with a lot of ugly looking contracts in 2012 and beyond and he'll be leaving his franchise hamstrung.
If Kenny Williams were a poker player I'd say he's got a J-Q off-suit and is hoping to pull a flush. It could work out really nice, or end up costing him a lot.
Ok, first of all, let me say that I really like Jesse Crain as a person and as a baseball player, and I'm going to gush a bit.
As a person, I respect the heck out of him for doing everything his organization have asked of him. I respect him for facing down the two surgeries with the highest washout rates for pitchers in baseball - rotator cuff and labrum - at the same time. And not flinching. Baseball is a game that can be played by anyone, but only a select few can tread the dangerously thin line that separates a Minor Leaguer from a Major Leaguer and tread right. The margin for error is simply too small. So to make it back from both of those injuries is impressive in any regard. That he tackled both at once and succeeded is border-line unbelievable.
As a player, I really like his stuff. He features two very solid offerings - a straight fastball that clocked in at 94.8mph in 2010, and a late-breaking slider with hard bite at 85.5mph. He'll also show hitters the occasional curve at 75.5mph. Those strong pitches allowed him to punch out 8.21 batters per nine in 2010.
While the fastball has good life, it's lack of vertical or horizontal movement makes it a pretty hittable pitch and throughout his career, it's ranked as his most hittable offering and came in at 1.13 runs BELOW average per 100 pitches in 2010. His slider has consistently been his best offering, and came in at 2.91 runs ABOVE average last year.
Where Jesse really struggles however, is in control. It's not that his walk rates are THAT bad - 3.57/9IP in 2010 - but they aren't great either. Worse, he has a tendency to miss IN the strikezone which, paired with generally mediocre ground ball rates - 39.2% in 2010 - leads to his fair share of home runs.
If White Sox fans are thinking that sounds familiar, it's because it is. Indeed, the Sox just traded away a player with strikingly similar peripherals in Scott Linebrink. They did so only to sign Crain to yet another three year deal after watching the one given to Linebrink explode on them to the extent that they had to pay the Braves 3.0m to take him on while getting back a paltry return.
This is where my, "Seriously Kenny..." bit comes in to play.
It's not that either Crain or Linebrink are BAD pitchers. Hardly. They both have above average stuff, both struggle somewhat with their command, and both are somewhat flyball prone. Furthermore, their issues with fly-balls were generally negated to some extent with their previous teams (Twins/Padres) as they played in pitcher friendly stadiums. When Linebrink moved into the hitters paradise that is US Cellular, he started giving up home runs at an astonishing rate.
I'm not projecting the same thing will happen with Crain - his ground ball rates are generally 5-8% better. But Crain also doesn't have nearly the track record of success that the Linebrink does, and a flat fastball like his is going to make him homer prone regardless of where he pitches.
I would've thought that seeing one three year deal for a reliever not work out as hoped would've perhaps highlighted the fact that giving relievers - who are notoriously unreliable - such long deals is ill-advised. Especially when that player has really only had one good year since recovering from multiple career-threatening injuries. But I guess that's why no one can ever guess what Kenny Williams is going to do. Because too often, much of it baffles everyone else. Lots of times in good ways. But I just can't see this being one of them.
I like Jesse Crain, a lot. I think he's a very solid pitcher. I think he'll continue to be a solid pitcher. But I also think White Sox fans are going to dislike him in short order because he's going to be asked to do something he's probably not well-equipped to do. Be a setup man in a ball park that really doesn't fit him. That won't be Jesse's fault of course - a man can't be something other than what he is - but will it lead some to question Williams' free agent strategies?
Kenny is taking a lot of high-risk, high-cost gambles this off season to try and get his club back into the playoffs. But if they don't pan out, he's going to be left with a lot of ugly looking contracts in 2012 and beyond and he'll be leaving his franchise hamstrung.
If Kenny Williams were a poker player I'd say he's got a J-Q off-suit and is hoping to pull a flush. It could work out really nice, or end up costing him a lot.
Monday, December 13, 2010
White Sox Sign Brian Bruney
Short on cash and long on bullpen holes, the White Sox made a move today to shore up at least one of those holes by inking hard-throwing 28 year old righty Brian Bruney to a minor league deal. Bruney, who has never had trouble missing bats split his 2010 between the Mets, Brewers, and Nationals - though he pitched in the minors for the Mets and Brewers. Prior to that, Bruney pitched for the Yankees for four seasons.
With a career 8.81 K/9 and a fastball that works in the mid-90s he's got the kind of put-away, blow-away stuff teams seek out of their middle relievers, but his control has been extremely bad. During his MLB tenure he's walked 6.51 batters per nine innings. Pair that with a poor fly ball rate and it leaves him very susceptible to big innings and he could end up being a particularly poor fit for a small park like US cellular. While Bruney will never have even average command, perhaps the Sox can iron out some of his control issues and turn him into something serviceable.
With a career 8.81 K/9 and a fastball that works in the mid-90s he's got the kind of put-away, blow-away stuff teams seek out of their middle relievers, but his control has been extremely bad. During his MLB tenure he's walked 6.51 batters per nine innings. Pair that with a poor fly ball rate and it leaves him very susceptible to big innings and he could end up being a particularly poor fit for a small park like US cellular. While Bruney will never have even average command, perhaps the Sox can iron out some of his control issues and turn him into something serviceable.
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