Would Calling Up Jacob Turner Be The Right Decision?

In truth, this is really a three-piece discussion with the first question being: how did we get to this point?;  the second question being: is Jacob Turner the best pitcher available to fill the role of 5th starter on the Tigers?; and the third question being: is he ready to get Major League hitters out?

Let's start with the first question: How did we get to this point?

Dayton Moore Changes Tact, Makes Intelligent Signing

We've all gotten pretty used to Dayton Moore making some terrible free agent decisions. Actually, it's pretty much the only thing Royals fans know. So when word came out that he had signed former Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis for 2m plus incentives, it was a bit surprising. Not only was Francis not a former member of the Braves - something that had always seemed to be a Dayton Moore prerequisite - he didn't overpay by millions of dollar either.

Strange indeed.

Obviously Francis wasn't exactly the cream of the free agent crop, but while many have wondered where pitchers trying rebuild value off injury such as Brandon Webb, Chris Young, and Justin Duchscherer would land, Francis is perhaps the safest bet of the bunch.

Of course Francis comes with plenty of red flags. After pitching through shoulder soreness for much of the 2008 season, and struggling in the process, Francis finally succumbed and underwent arthroscopic surgery on his pitching arm that caused him to miss the entirety of the 2009 season and the first part of 2010. On the surface there might not seem to be much to indicate he'd return to form given his 5.00 ERA last year, but a quick look at his rate stats shows that underneath the ugly ERA was the Francis of old. Compare if you would his career rate stats against those he posted in 2010.

Career: 6.15K - 2.13BB - 43.2%GB

2010: 5.78K - 1.98BB - 47.0%GB

That pitching formula - despite the ugly ERA - actually produced Francis' best FIP (3.88) and xFIP (3.94) metrics ever. If that ground ball rate is less of an aberration and more of a new fact of Francis' post surgery pitching reality, it's possible he could actually be a better pitcher than the one he was prior.

The signing isn't entirely dissimilar from the one the Tigers made of Brad Penny. While neither pitcher is a lock to be a significant improvement on options already available internally, they both have ample upside to turn in very good seasons, and good reasons to expect that they will.

While the Tigers signing of Penny was motivated by a desire to add depth and potentially acquire a veteran innings eater for the back of their rotation, the Royals likely have other interests. In the Royals case, should Francis turn in a strong 2011 as I expect he will, he should be a strong candidate for a mid-season trade that could net the Royals still more prospects to add to their already overflowing Minor League depth. Or the Royals could let the season play out in the hope that he could net them a draft pick or two in free agent compensation.

In either case, the Royals win. They've added a capable arm who can help them win games in 2010, and bought themselves an inexpensive lottery ticket that has a good chance of coming up a prospect winner.  And even if Francis flops, at just 2m, they can't lose.

It's a strange thing to see in Royal-land, but it can be a beautiful thing when a signing makes sense.

Tigers Sign Brad Penny. Where Does That Leave Armando Galarraga?

Tigers General Manager Dave Drombrowski has publicly hinted at the idea of adding another starter to his rotation a few times this off season, and with the recent signing of Brad Penny, he's finally made that a reality. By moving Phil Coke to the rotation, the Tigers already had a full five man rotation, but the addition of Penny gives the team additional depth that, beyond Andrew Oliver, was lacking internally.

While Penny himself hasn't been anything particularly special the past three years, having posted a 5.02 ERA while struggling through various injuries, he has been a steady if unspectacular innings eater throughout his career posting a career ERA of 4.11 with an FIP of 3.98 and an xFIP of 4.19. Despite a mid-90s fastball (93.4mph career / 94.1mph 2010), Penny's rate stats profile more like that of a inning-eating-sinkerballer: 6.27K/2.85BB-45.7GB.

What the Tigers will get out of Penny of course, remains something of a mystery. If healthy, Penny could be good for around 170-190 innings with an ERA in the low 4s. Poor results aside, an examination of Penny's rate stats the past three seasons reveals very little change other than a slight (but not completely insignificant) decline in his strikeout rate. He remains an average to somewhat low strikeout pitcher with average or slightly better walk rates and solid/plus ground ball tendencies. Of course, the issue of his health remains a big IF given his past three seasons. He could also pitch the way he did in 2008 or 2009, or end up making just nine starts as he did in 2010 for the Cardinals.

That being said, speculating on injuries is a fools errand. What we should be taking into account is that the Tigers had a need - someone who could eat innings at the bottom of the rotation - and while Penny comes with plenty of risk, he also comes with an upside that former 5th starter Armando Galarraga doesn't possess. For what it's worth, Bill James projects Galarraga for 178 innings of a 4.45 ERA. While projections aren't out yet for Penny, one would assume they won't be good given his performance over the past three seasons.

But with Penny signed, the Tigers have given themselves something more difficult to measure than even advanced metrics can quantify - peace of mind. Penny gives the Tigers depth that insulates them against the all-too-common pitching injury, a veteran presence and a proven innings eater - and he does so at a cut-throat rate.

The worst case scenario for this signing is that Penny, who struggled in the AL during his only stint in Boston, tanks and is summarily released, traded, or banished to mop-up duty. The best case of course, is significantly better. While some might be quick to label the signing as insignificant (something it may very well end up being) I like it because even in its insignificance, it is meaningful.

There are other angles of this signing to explore however. As implied in the title of this post, one has to wonder what this ultimately means for the future of Galarraga. While I've seen some speculation that he may become trade bait, that would seem to run counter to what I imagine Dombrowski's real intent is - to create depth that protects the team against injury or ineffectiveness. Short term, I expect the Tigers to utilize Galarraga in a long-relief role where he'll almost certainly prove to be more effective than Eddie Bonine was in 2010. Long term however, he remains a viable option as a #4 or #5 starter on most teams. Whether that team will be the Tigers or not will likely have much to do with how the Tigers relatively deep corps of pitching prospects develops.

Speaking of pitching prospects, I also wonder what this says about the Tigers short-term view of Andrew Oliver. While Oliver possesses good stuff, with a fastball that averages 93.8mph and a good slider with late break that will be very effective as a put-away pitch against both lefties and righties. His changeup is still developing and in the long run, that will make him vulnerable to lefties. More importantly, his control is still very much a work in progress as this point. While Oliver is rightfully well-regarded as a pitching prospect, his reputation may be ahead of his refined talents.

That being said, Oliver's short-term outlook shouldn't cloud the long-term one, he's still a rare beast, a live-armed lefty who, despite his flaws, projects as a #2 or #3 pitcher. It just seems that the Tigers brain-trust doesn't believe his time is now.