When the Tigers signed Victor Martinez, both the Manager Jim Leyland as well as GM Dave Dombrowski were adamant that Martinez wouldn't do the bulk of the catching. Leyland said he saw Martinez as someone who could DH and play first base some while Dombrowski said he envisioned Martinez catching "two or three days a week." Clearly it was never the plan for the defensively challenged Martinez to be the full-time backstop. Instead the job of primary catcher would belong to Alex Avila.
Showing posts with label Victor Martinez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Victor Martinez. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Tigers Sign Ryan Raburn to Two Year Contract
In my most recent Tigers Payroll Estimate I pegged Ryan Raburn as being in line for 1.5m in arbitration. Given a repeat of his 2010 or 2009 performance, which I think is likely, I'd have then estimated him at about 3.5m in 2011. So when the Tigers announced that they had agreed on a two-year extension with Raburn for just 3.4m - about half of my expectation of what it would cost for his 2010 and 2011 seasons - you can be assured that I raised an eyebrow.
I'm quite confident that the reason for my surprise wasn't because my estimates were off, to the contrary I'm confident that I'll prove to be very close in far more of my estimates than not - but rather that the Tigers got a great deal. How good? Well, we could simply say that the Tigers got Raburn for perhaps half of what it would've cost through arbitration and leave it at that, but we can do better.
Amongst all Major League left fielders who had enough at-bats to qualify, Raburn's 2.1 WAR in 2010 would've been tied for 11th with the Twins Delmon Young. And just 0.1 WAR behind Juan Pierre of the White Sox and Bobby Abreu of the Angels.
Would've been, except Raburn didn't have enough at-bats to qualify.
In just 371 at-bats, or about 3/5 of a season, Raburn managed to provide as much production as players with nearly twice as many plate appearances. Indeed, if you were to project Raburn's production over a full 550 at-bat season, he'd have been worth 3.1 WAR, which would've left only this list of players ahead of him:
Josh Hamilton (8.0), Matt Holiday (6.9), Carl Crawford (6.9), Carlos Gonzalez (6.0), Aubrey Huff (5.7), Brett Gardner (5.4), and Ryan Braun (4.2).
Not bad company, and given that Huff started a whooping 24 games in left, you could be forgiven if you excluded him from the list.
What's perplexing is that if you were forced to judge Raburn strictly on the amount of praise or neglect he gets from Tiger fans, you'd be almost certain to come away with the impression that he was a bench player at best.
I don't want to come across as a Raburn apologist - he's a player with some clear weaknesses - specifically in the field and as a hitter with a pretty severe platoon split against right-handed pitching. He's clearly not in the top-tier of the games left fielders like Crawford, Holliday, Gonzalez, or Braun, but he's also a better player than 20 or so other teams are going to run out on a daily basis - and probably better than anyone else in the Central.
At the same time, his weaknesses are probably not as bad as they're made out to be. While Raburn is frequently his own worst enemy, getting bad reads, taking questionable routes, and bobbling balls, we should probably cut him some slack. During his time with the Tigers, Raburn has been used primarily as a utility player, logging time at every position other than shortstop and catcher. Thankfully he finally seems to have settled in left field, and his defense there (+2.8 UZR for his career) hasn't been that bad at all.
Further, during the past two seasons - those in which he's come closest to regular playing time - his performance against right handers hasn't necessarily been bench-worthy as he posted an .800 OPS against them in 2009 and a .753 OPS in 2010.
In the end however, Raburn is mostly about mashing left-handed pitching, and frankly, there aren't a ton who do that better. Raburn's .929 OPS vs lefties in 2010 was good for 26th best in baseball overall (Victor Martinez was 1st and Miguel Cabrera 8th!). In 2009, his .976 OPS was 22nd best and better than anyone else on the Tigers, Cabrera included.
I've seen some questions about how Raburn will fare in a full-time role. Count me in the group of the unconcerned. Raburn might not make it pretty, but I expect his defense will be around league average or just slightly worse. And offensively, he hasn't been nearly the liability vs righties that some seem to think.
Overall, I expect Raburn will provide an OPS in the neighborhood of .820 with defense that shouldn't be worse than 5 runs below average. Over a full season that should be worst at least 3 WAR, and there's plenty of potential for more. If I'm right that would mean the Tigers are in line for at least 6 WAR over the next two years. In free agency, that would probably be worth at least 20m. The Tigers will get it 3.5m.
Sheesh.
I'm quite confident that the reason for my surprise wasn't because my estimates were off, to the contrary I'm confident that I'll prove to be very close in far more of my estimates than not - but rather that the Tigers got a great deal. How good? Well, we could simply say that the Tigers got Raburn for perhaps half of what it would've cost through arbitration and leave it at that, but we can do better.
Amongst all Major League left fielders who had enough at-bats to qualify, Raburn's 2.1 WAR in 2010 would've been tied for 11th with the Twins Delmon Young. And just 0.1 WAR behind Juan Pierre of the White Sox and Bobby Abreu of the Angels.
Would've been, except Raburn didn't have enough at-bats to qualify.
In just 371 at-bats, or about 3/5 of a season, Raburn managed to provide as much production as players with nearly twice as many plate appearances. Indeed, if you were to project Raburn's production over a full 550 at-bat season, he'd have been worth 3.1 WAR, which would've left only this list of players ahead of him:
Josh Hamilton (8.0), Matt Holiday (6.9), Carl Crawford (6.9), Carlos Gonzalez (6.0), Aubrey Huff (5.7), Brett Gardner (5.4), and Ryan Braun (4.2).
Not bad company, and given that Huff started a whooping 24 games in left, you could be forgiven if you excluded him from the list.
What's perplexing is that if you were forced to judge Raburn strictly on the amount of praise or neglect he gets from Tiger fans, you'd be almost certain to come away with the impression that he was a bench player at best.
I don't want to come across as a Raburn apologist - he's a player with some clear weaknesses - specifically in the field and as a hitter with a pretty severe platoon split against right-handed pitching. He's clearly not in the top-tier of the games left fielders like Crawford, Holliday, Gonzalez, or Braun, but he's also a better player than 20 or so other teams are going to run out on a daily basis - and probably better than anyone else in the Central.
At the same time, his weaknesses are probably not as bad as they're made out to be. While Raburn is frequently his own worst enemy, getting bad reads, taking questionable routes, and bobbling balls, we should probably cut him some slack. During his time with the Tigers, Raburn has been used primarily as a utility player, logging time at every position other than shortstop and catcher. Thankfully he finally seems to have settled in left field, and his defense there (+2.8 UZR for his career) hasn't been that bad at all.
Further, during the past two seasons - those in which he's come closest to regular playing time - his performance against right handers hasn't necessarily been bench-worthy as he posted an .800 OPS against them in 2009 and a .753 OPS in 2010.
In the end however, Raburn is mostly about mashing left-handed pitching, and frankly, there aren't a ton who do that better. Raburn's .929 OPS vs lefties in 2010 was good for 26th best in baseball overall (Victor Martinez was 1st and Miguel Cabrera 8th!). In 2009, his .976 OPS was 22nd best and better than anyone else on the Tigers, Cabrera included.
I've seen some questions about how Raburn will fare in a full-time role. Count me in the group of the unconcerned. Raburn might not make it pretty, but I expect his defense will be around league average or just slightly worse. And offensively, he hasn't been nearly the liability vs righties that some seem to think.
Overall, I expect Raburn will provide an OPS in the neighborhood of .820 with defense that shouldn't be worse than 5 runs below average. Over a full season that should be worst at least 3 WAR, and there's plenty of potential for more. If I'm right that would mean the Tigers are in line for at least 6 WAR over the next two years. In free agency, that would probably be worth at least 20m. The Tigers will get it 3.5m.
Sheesh.
Friday, December 10, 2010
White Sox Bring Back A.J. Pierzynski
After six seasons of his patented instigation antics behind the plate for the White Sox, A.J. Pierzynski found himself as a free agent for the first time since the end of the 2004 season. To make matter worse, he was coming off his worst offensive performance of the millennium (hey, it's fun to say!) after posting an OPS of just .688. Thankfully for A.J., the crop of free agent catchers wasn't overwhelmingly attractive, perhaps being headlined by the defensively challenged John Buck. Once he was signed away by the Marlins early on, there was little else behind him.
Re-enter Kenny Williams.
With his lone remaining catcher under contract being the light-hitting, defensive minded Ramon Castro, and his best minor league option, Tyler Flowers, struggling at AAA with his plate discipline and defense, Williams made the bold move of bringing Pierzynski back on a back-loaded two-year contract that would prove to be the final domino that remained to fall prior to Williams being able to make his push to re-sign long-time first baseman Paul Konerko.
As with many free-agent signings, this one, at least on it's face, appears to be reasonable. Pierzynski has been worth 2.4 and 1.8 WAR the past two seasons - and at an average of of 4m per season, should easily justify his contract.
But as I highlighted in my review of the Victor Martinez signing by Detroit earlier, catchers have shown a propensity to drop off offensively earlier than their counterparts who play other, less physically demanding positions. That's likely a result of the wear and tear on a players knees and back that a catcher must deal with. Irregardless, it's a fact of life for most players. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the seemingly ageless Jorge Posada who, despite a massive decline in defense the past four seasons, has remained a very solid contributor on offense. But the rare case of an ageless Posada shouldn't cloud our judgement of the manner in which the position as a whole has aged throughout the years, signing Pierzynki - who has just one season with an OPS over .730 in the past four years - is a risk.
Thankfully to say, the risks are at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that the deal is just for two years and rarely has a team been done-in by such a short-term deal. And lets be clear, the White Sox aren't going to suffer significantly even if Pierzynski continues to hit as poorly as he did last year.
Rather, my concerns on this signing are rather nuanced. But that doesn't make them any less relevant.
First of all, I question the need to go to two years. How many other teams were in on the bidding? It's always tough to say, but from reports, the only team that seemed to have clear interest was the Blue Jays (whom the aforementioned Buck was departing). But when we look at the Jays, we see that they have a solid MLB-ready prospect in J.P. Arencibia and another in Travis D'Arnaud who is probably only one or two years off.
Beyond the Blue Jays, there are very few teams with an obvious need at the position (the Red Sox, Dodgers, and maybe the Mariners stand/stood out) and even then, the number of relatively comparable players seems to outstrip demand. Indeed, the Mariners just signed former White Sox catcher Miguel Olivo - who is two years younger than Pierzynski, who has been both a better offensive player the past two years, and a much better defender throughout his career - for a million dollars less.
Was signing Pierzynski to a two year deal really necessary? Doubtful.
Furthermore, was Pierzynski really the best available option? As the signing of Olivo points out, probably not. I question whether he's even better than the man who will be backing him up. Let's be certain, Castro is probably not quite the caliber of offensive player that Pierzynski is, but he's not particularly worse and he's almost certainly a somewhat better defensive option as baserunners have stolen on Pierzysnki with near impunity the past three years, swiping 270 total bases at a 78% success rate.
Of course, there are other factors to consider. Pierzynski is a tenured member of the White Sox, a veteran of their World Series run (a "proven winner"), and a legitimate warrior behind the plate as he's donned the tools of ignorance more times than any catcher in baseball the past three seasons. He's also a major pain-in-the-ass for the opposing teams hitters.
Will the signing of AJ likely prove worthwhile? Probably. After all, even while experiencing his worst offensive year of this millennium (yup, still fun to say) he was worth 1.8 WAR. More than enough to justify an average yearly salary of 4m. And perhaps that's all that should matter. But for me, the little things matter. And there are little things about this deal that I just don't like.
I think the Sox could've done better. And could've done better for less.
Re-enter Kenny Williams.
With his lone remaining catcher under contract being the light-hitting, defensive minded Ramon Castro, and his best minor league option, Tyler Flowers, struggling at AAA with his plate discipline and defense, Williams made the bold move of bringing Pierzynski back on a back-loaded two-year contract that would prove to be the final domino that remained to fall prior to Williams being able to make his push to re-sign long-time first baseman Paul Konerko.
As with many free-agent signings, this one, at least on it's face, appears to be reasonable. Pierzynski has been worth 2.4 and 1.8 WAR the past two seasons - and at an average of of 4m per season, should easily justify his contract.
But as I highlighted in my review of the Victor Martinez signing by Detroit earlier, catchers have shown a propensity to drop off offensively earlier than their counterparts who play other, less physically demanding positions. That's likely a result of the wear and tear on a players knees and back that a catcher must deal with. Irregardless, it's a fact of life for most players. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the seemingly ageless Jorge Posada who, despite a massive decline in defense the past four seasons, has remained a very solid contributor on offense. But the rare case of an ageless Posada shouldn't cloud our judgement of the manner in which the position as a whole has aged throughout the years, signing Pierzynki - who has just one season with an OPS over .730 in the past four years - is a risk.
Thankfully to say, the risks are at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that the deal is just for two years and rarely has a team been done-in by such a short-term deal. And lets be clear, the White Sox aren't going to suffer significantly even if Pierzynski continues to hit as poorly as he did last year.
Rather, my concerns on this signing are rather nuanced. But that doesn't make them any less relevant.
First of all, I question the need to go to two years. How many other teams were in on the bidding? It's always tough to say, but from reports, the only team that seemed to have clear interest was the Blue Jays (whom the aforementioned Buck was departing). But when we look at the Jays, we see that they have a solid MLB-ready prospect in J.P. Arencibia and another in Travis D'Arnaud who is probably only one or two years off.
Beyond the Blue Jays, there are very few teams with an obvious need at the position (the Red Sox, Dodgers, and maybe the Mariners stand/stood out) and even then, the number of relatively comparable players seems to outstrip demand. Indeed, the Mariners just signed former White Sox catcher Miguel Olivo - who is two years younger than Pierzynski, who has been both a better offensive player the past two years, and a much better defender throughout his career - for a million dollars less.
Was signing Pierzynski to a two year deal really necessary? Doubtful.
Furthermore, was Pierzynski really the best available option? As the signing of Olivo points out, probably not. I question whether he's even better than the man who will be backing him up. Let's be certain, Castro is probably not quite the caliber of offensive player that Pierzynski is, but he's not particularly worse and he's almost certainly a somewhat better defensive option as baserunners have stolen on Pierzysnki with near impunity the past three years, swiping 270 total bases at a 78% success rate.
Of course, there are other factors to consider. Pierzynski is a tenured member of the White Sox, a veteran of their World Series run (a "proven winner"), and a legitimate warrior behind the plate as he's donned the tools of ignorance more times than any catcher in baseball the past three seasons. He's also a major pain-in-the-ass for the opposing teams hitters.
Will the signing of AJ likely prove worthwhile? Probably. After all, even while experiencing his worst offensive year of this millennium (yup, still fun to say) he was worth 1.8 WAR. More than enough to justify an average yearly salary of 4m. And perhaps that's all that should matter. But for me, the little things matter. And there are little things about this deal that I just don't like.
I think the Sox could've done better. And could've done better for less.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Tigers Ink Catcher Victor martinez
With a need in the bullpen addressed by the signing of reliever Joaquin Benoit earlier, Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski turned his attention to solidifying a catchers position that was amongst the worst in the league offensively in 2010. To do so, he signed none other than Victor Martinez, hands down the bet option available among this seasons crop of free agent catchers. While we can debate the overall value of Martinez as a catcher and how he will fit in with the 2011 Tigers (and we will, at length!) it’s safe to say that the acquisition of Martinez will, at a minimum, make the the Tigers often punchless lineup last season, much more formidable for the foreseeable future.
First, lets break down the contract. At four years, and fifty million dollars - the Tigers will be acquiring Martinez for what is likely to be the beginning of the decline phase of his career. Ideally, you’d probably like to give Martinez, 33 in late December, maybe just three years as catchers (and most players in general) tend to decline offensive at a pretty steep rate after age 34-35. But given the scarcity of good hitting catchers, combined with the Tigers general lack of offense, and the fact that Martinez will likely spend a good amount of time at designated hitter - the contract has an above average chance at being worthwhile in my opinion.
Over the past four full seasons, Martinez has been worth 4.5 (2007), 0.6 (2008), 4.7 (2009), and 3.0 WAR (2010) - using our standard rate of 4.25m per win, he’s been worth a total 54.4m during those three seasons. Of course, his 2008 was mostly lost due to injury, and that’s worth at least noting.
Given the fact that hose four seasons were essentially the back-end of his prime, and he’ll be 33 at the outset of this contract, it’s unlikely that he duplicates that level of value - but he doesn’t need to in order to justify his deal. At 50m over four years, he’ll need to average ‘just’ 2.94 WAR per season. Obviously that’s still an impressive mark, and it will be difficult for him to attain without spending significant time as a close-to-league-average catcher - but it’s do-able. The switch hitting Martinez, even at 32 years old, didn’t show any noticeable signs of decline at the plate as he continued to hit with the games best offensive catchers, posting a .302/.351/.493 - .844 OPS that was second only to Joe Mauer in the American League.
Of course his value to the Tigers will ultimately be defined by just how much time he can spend behind the plate as a capable option at catcher, because his bat is great at that position, but significantly less so as a DH. Martinez has long been known as a below average receiver behind the plate, and struggled as much as ever in throwing out runners in 2010 as teams ran at will, stealing 99 bases in 125 attempts (a 79.5% success rate). But if he can manage to stay healthy, and not get any worse, at least in the near-term (the next two years) he’ll provide just what the Tigers need.
In Alex Avila the Tigers have a solid back-up. The 23 year old Avila was rushed to the Majors in 2009 as the Tigers needed someone to pair with the now departed Gerald Laird, and his power bat against right-handed pitching helped carry the Tigers through their late-season playoff push that ultimately came up just short. But Avila, at this point at least, is strictly a platoon option as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. That said, he’s a solid if unspectacular defender who does a capable job of controlling the running game and should be a fine late-game replacement should the Tigers feel the need to replace Martinez in such situations. Offensively, he’ll make a decent platoon partner against right-handed pitching when the Tigers decide to have Martinez DH.
As Martinez ages, particularly over the final two years of his contract, it’s likely that he’ll be increasingly relegated to DH duties where his bat should still be around league average for the position. The hope for the Tigers would be that Martinez stays healthy and proves to be a capable option at catcher for the next two seasons while continuing to post WAR marks in the 4.0 range while providing help in the middle of the lineup -either by creating chances in front of Miguel Cabrera, or by providing “protection” (which I really don’t believe in) behind him. Personally, I’d probably bat Martinez ahead of Cabrera if only because Martinez’s bat simply isn’t such a threat, even now, to prevent teams from working around Cabrera.
If Martinez can stay healthy and follow a WAR progression of 4.0 - 4.0 - 2.5 - 2.5 through his contract, he’ll more than justify the signing. Of course, that’s always the risk in signing free agents. You’re going to pay them for the best possible scenario, and are always unlikely to get it. But as free agent signings go, I think this is one that will pay off.
First, lets break down the contract. At four years, and fifty million dollars - the Tigers will be acquiring Martinez for what is likely to be the beginning of the decline phase of his career. Ideally, you’d probably like to give Martinez, 33 in late December, maybe just three years as catchers (and most players in general) tend to decline offensive at a pretty steep rate after age 34-35. But given the scarcity of good hitting catchers, combined with the Tigers general lack of offense, and the fact that Martinez will likely spend a good amount of time at designated hitter - the contract has an above average chance at being worthwhile in my opinion.
Over the past four full seasons, Martinez has been worth 4.5 (2007), 0.6 (2008), 4.7 (2009), and 3.0 WAR (2010) - using our standard rate of 4.25m per win, he’s been worth a total 54.4m during those three seasons. Of course, his 2008 was mostly lost due to injury, and that’s worth at least noting.
Given the fact that hose four seasons were essentially the back-end of his prime, and he’ll be 33 at the outset of this contract, it’s unlikely that he duplicates that level of value - but he doesn’t need to in order to justify his deal. At 50m over four years, he’ll need to average ‘just’ 2.94 WAR per season. Obviously that’s still an impressive mark, and it will be difficult for him to attain without spending significant time as a close-to-league-average catcher - but it’s do-able. The switch hitting Martinez, even at 32 years old, didn’t show any noticeable signs of decline at the plate as he continued to hit with the games best offensive catchers, posting a .302/.351/.493 - .844 OPS that was second only to Joe Mauer in the American League.
Of course his value to the Tigers will ultimately be defined by just how much time he can spend behind the plate as a capable option at catcher, because his bat is great at that position, but significantly less so as a DH. Martinez has long been known as a below average receiver behind the plate, and struggled as much as ever in throwing out runners in 2010 as teams ran at will, stealing 99 bases in 125 attempts (a 79.5% success rate). But if he can manage to stay healthy, and not get any worse, at least in the near-term (the next two years) he’ll provide just what the Tigers need.
In Alex Avila the Tigers have a solid back-up. The 23 year old Avila was rushed to the Majors in 2009 as the Tigers needed someone to pair with the now departed Gerald Laird, and his power bat against right-handed pitching helped carry the Tigers through their late-season playoff push that ultimately came up just short. But Avila, at this point at least, is strictly a platoon option as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. That said, he’s a solid if unspectacular defender who does a capable job of controlling the running game and should be a fine late-game replacement should the Tigers feel the need to replace Martinez in such situations. Offensively, he’ll make a decent platoon partner against right-handed pitching when the Tigers decide to have Martinez DH.
As Martinez ages, particularly over the final two years of his contract, it’s likely that he’ll be increasingly relegated to DH duties where his bat should still be around league average for the position. The hope for the Tigers would be that Martinez stays healthy and proves to be a capable option at catcher for the next two seasons while continuing to post WAR marks in the 4.0 range while providing help in the middle of the lineup -either by creating chances in front of Miguel Cabrera, or by providing “protection” (which I really don’t believe in) behind him. Personally, I’d probably bat Martinez ahead of Cabrera if only because Martinez’s bat simply isn’t such a threat, even now, to prevent teams from working around Cabrera.
If Martinez can stay healthy and follow a WAR progression of 4.0 - 4.0 - 2.5 - 2.5 through his contract, he’ll more than justify the signing. Of course, that’s always the risk in signing free agents. You’re going to pay them for the best possible scenario, and are always unlikely to get it. But as free agent signings go, I think this is one that will pay off.
Tigers Sign Joaquin Benoit
After a career of up-and-down performances with the Texas Rangers that culminated with his missing the entire 2009 season after rotator-cuff surgery, Joaquin Benoit signed a minor league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays with an invite to spring training. Benoit always had a decent arm, working in the 91-92mph range and missed plenty of bats. But he had been plagued by injuries and control issues. For the league minimum, the Rays got 60.1 innings of a 1.34 ERA and a 1.5 WAR - just a tick below Rafael Soriano (1.6) and Mariano Rivera (1.7). Suffice it to say, they got their monies worth.
Fast forward to one year later and the Tigers, looking to bolster a bullpen that struggled mightily when injury-prone flam-throwing righty Joel Zumaya went down with a broken elbow, swooped in early to make the first meaningful signing of the 2010-2011 off season. They inked Benoit to a three year, sixteen-and-a-half million dollar deal that ranks as one of the richest ever for a non-closer.
It's a significant layout for a player who has had just one dominant year in his career, with a history of injuries, and it's a deal that comes with obvious pluses and minuses.
Beyond Benoit's obvious talents, the fact that he wouldn't cost the Tigers a draft pick - as other potential options might have - might be his greatest benefit in my mind. Even with the Tigers later moving to sign Victor Martinez, they still could've lost their second round pick - something most analysts view as being worth at least 500K - and perhaps more importantly, something a team with a relatively weak farm system like the Tigers would like to retain. That said, Benoit's as talented as anyone else available and, should he stay healthy, will prove to be a good contributor for the Tigers and reliable bridge to closer Jose Valverde.
History suggests that Benoit will likely not be worth every penny he's going to get paid. That's partly due to the fact that relievers just don't effect enough innings to play major roles on any team. This is particularly true in the case of Benoit, who hasn't been healthy enough to register a season with more than 60 innings since 2007. But it's also because Benoit simply isn't a likely candidate to repeat his success of 2010.
Consider if you will that Benoit set career marks in strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and not surprisingly bested his career best FIP and xFIP marks by over a run and a half each. He did so on the back of a .201 BABIP - 90 points lower than his career average. The odds of ANY pitcher repeating such success is pretty much nil, and they're even lower for someone who has never approached such production before while playing at the most statistically volatile position in the game.
As for the contract itself, there are a few different ways to look at it. We can take the simplistic view that the Tigers had a need, and filled it. That in itself should be viewed as a success.We can also look at it in terms of comparative value - how much better will Benoit be than an internal option such as Daniel Schlereth or a cheaper external option such as Koji Uehara?
Finally, we can look at it in terms of statistical value. This of course, is the lense with which I prefer to view the game. If we assume that a single WAR is worth about 4.25m, Benoit would have to be worth 1.29WAR per season make the deal a break-even one for the Tigers. It's not impossible of course - Benoit put together such a stretch earlier in his career when he was contributing 80+ innings per season. But he's not that player anymore and hasn't been for awhile.
When we look at similar long-term deals for middle-relievers - such as those given to Bobby Seay and Scott Linebrink - we see deals that gave long-term stability to pitchers who's long-term impact should've been considered questionable at best. Both of those relievers signed three year deals with their new clubs and have either failed to produce at all (Seay due to injury) or have produced so poorly that their contracts end up being detrimental (Linebrink). In both cases, the acquiring teams likely wish they hadn't made such deals. There is some similarity with Benoit in that regard. He is getting paid quite a bit by middle-relief standards, and he'll be getting paid that way for quite awhile. And ultimately, he is a bit bigger risk than some of his free agent companions.
So what can we expect to see from Benoit going forward? It's a little bit tough to say. On the one hand you have his lifetime body of work, which suggests flashes of brilliance that overall, are marked by an inability to command the strike zone throughout the season. On the other, we have what would appear to be the new-and-improved Benoit - the one who came back from major shoulder surgery pitching like the bionic man.
But if I had to venture a guess (and I guess that's the job you're not paying me to do) I'd project the improved strikeout rate to stick while the walk rate normalizes and ultimately you're left with a player somewhere in between who he was pre-surgery, and who he was last year. In terms of his FIP, I'd expect to see marks in the mid-threes and and ERA that hovers in he mid-to-high threes or low fours which would be a fair amount better than the 4.47 ERA he's accumulated throughout his career.
I'm not completely in love with this deal from the Tigers perspective in the sense that I think it'll ultimately be viewed in a poor light as it becomes apparent that they have equally capable options within the franchise already - be it Zumaya, Schlereth or Ryan Perry. But there is also a chance that this could work out very nicely if Benoit's improved command sticks. If that's the case, he could prove to be an expensive setup man who helps the Tigers bullpen be one of the better ones in baseball.
Fast forward to one year later and the Tigers, looking to bolster a bullpen that struggled mightily when injury-prone flam-throwing righty Joel Zumaya went down with a broken elbow, swooped in early to make the first meaningful signing of the 2010-2011 off season. They inked Benoit to a three year, sixteen-and-a-half million dollar deal that ranks as one of the richest ever for a non-closer.
It's a significant layout for a player who has had just one dominant year in his career, with a history of injuries, and it's a deal that comes with obvious pluses and minuses.
Beyond Benoit's obvious talents, the fact that he wouldn't cost the Tigers a draft pick - as other potential options might have - might be his greatest benefit in my mind. Even with the Tigers later moving to sign Victor Martinez, they still could've lost their second round pick - something most analysts view as being worth at least 500K - and perhaps more importantly, something a team with a relatively weak farm system like the Tigers would like to retain. That said, Benoit's as talented as anyone else available and, should he stay healthy, will prove to be a good contributor for the Tigers and reliable bridge to closer Jose Valverde.
History suggests that Benoit will likely not be worth every penny he's going to get paid. That's partly due to the fact that relievers just don't effect enough innings to play major roles on any team. This is particularly true in the case of Benoit, who hasn't been healthy enough to register a season with more than 60 innings since 2007. But it's also because Benoit simply isn't a likely candidate to repeat his success of 2010.
Consider if you will that Benoit set career marks in strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and not surprisingly bested his career best FIP and xFIP marks by over a run and a half each. He did so on the back of a .201 BABIP - 90 points lower than his career average. The odds of ANY pitcher repeating such success is pretty much nil, and they're even lower for someone who has never approached such production before while playing at the most statistically volatile position in the game.
As for the contract itself, there are a few different ways to look at it. We can take the simplistic view that the Tigers had a need, and filled it. That in itself should be viewed as a success.We can also look at it in terms of comparative value - how much better will Benoit be than an internal option such as Daniel Schlereth or a cheaper external option such as Koji Uehara?
Finally, we can look at it in terms of statistical value. This of course, is the lense with which I prefer to view the game. If we assume that a single WAR is worth about 4.25m, Benoit would have to be worth 1.29WAR per season make the deal a break-even one for the Tigers. It's not impossible of course - Benoit put together such a stretch earlier in his career when he was contributing 80+ innings per season. But he's not that player anymore and hasn't been for awhile.
When we look at similar long-term deals for middle-relievers - such as those given to Bobby Seay and Scott Linebrink - we see deals that gave long-term stability to pitchers who's long-term impact should've been considered questionable at best. Both of those relievers signed three year deals with their new clubs and have either failed to produce at all (Seay due to injury) or have produced so poorly that their contracts end up being detrimental (Linebrink). In both cases, the acquiring teams likely wish they hadn't made such deals. There is some similarity with Benoit in that regard. He is getting paid quite a bit by middle-relief standards, and he'll be getting paid that way for quite awhile. And ultimately, he is a bit bigger risk than some of his free agent companions.
So what can we expect to see from Benoit going forward? It's a little bit tough to say. On the one hand you have his lifetime body of work, which suggests flashes of brilliance that overall, are marked by an inability to command the strike zone throughout the season. On the other, we have what would appear to be the new-and-improved Benoit - the one who came back from major shoulder surgery pitching like the bionic man.
But if I had to venture a guess (and I guess that's the job you're not paying me to do) I'd project the improved strikeout rate to stick while the walk rate normalizes and ultimately you're left with a player somewhere in between who he was pre-surgery, and who he was last year. In terms of his FIP, I'd expect to see marks in the mid-threes and and ERA that hovers in he mid-to-high threes or low fours which would be a fair amount better than the 4.47 ERA he's accumulated throughout his career.
I'm not completely in love with this deal from the Tigers perspective in the sense that I think it'll ultimately be viewed in a poor light as it becomes apparent that they have equally capable options within the franchise already - be it Zumaya, Schlereth or Ryan Perry. But there is also a chance that this could work out very nicely if Benoit's improved command sticks. If that's the case, he could prove to be an expensive setup man who helps the Tigers bullpen be one of the better ones in baseball.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Up and Coming Catchers, Pt. 4
This is the last of what will be a four part examination of the AL Centrals glut of catching talent. You can see parts one, two, and three at these links.
The position of catcher is one of the most difficult to fill in baseball. The job is extremely physically demanding and because of that, offense from the position is generally pretty rare - there is no position other than pitcher where players average a lower OPS. The players who are able to hit from that position are immediately thrust into the upper echelon. With that said, catcher will always be a defense first position. The catcher is responsible for putting together the game plan, calling the game, framing the pitches, controlling the running game, and serving as the pitchers therapist between innings.
The AL Central is lucky to be able to boast four of baseballs best young receiving prospects with Alex Avila in Detroit (Scouting Book #127), Carlos Santana in Cleveland (B.A. #10/B.P. #8/ESPN #3/ S.B. #14), Tyler Flowers in Chicago (B.A. #60/ B.P. #72/ S.B. #93), and Wilson Ramos in Minnesota (B.A. #58/ B.P. #65/ ESPN #42/ S.B #95).
Besides having a song named smooth with my favorite artist, Santana has a pretty smooth game behind the plate it would appear. Santana was acquired (along with Jonathan Meloan) in 2008 from the Dodgers for Casey Blake and while Indians fans have yet to see much return in that deal, things are about to change quickly. Converted to catcher after being drafted as a third baseman, Santana certainly seems to be adapting nicely.
While no one is expecting him to be the second coming of Johnny Bench, Santana still brings a very solid game behind the plate. Scouts praise his lateral mobility which pitchers should love. For their part, pitchers have praised his game calling abilities and receiving skills, and overall he's left his coaches impressed at every level of the minors. His arm isn't going to be top flight - he threw out just 30% in AA - but it should be better than that of Victor Martinez.
As a 24 year old who will be opening the season in AAA, he might not have the typical advancement you'd see amongst a top prospect, but that's primarily because it's taken an extra year or two for his defensive game to get caught up. Offensively, Santana is a force. I could choose to nit-pick his strikeout rates, but at 19.4% last year, they're nothing like those of prospects I profiled earlier such as Tyler Flowers or Alex Avila. And the rest of his game is so much more advanced. His walk rates have been consistently strong - his 16.% last year was hardly abnormal. His career minor league batting average of .287 is solid and consistent across the levels and his power is exploding. Last year he belted 23 home runs in just 428 at-bats. As he matures, he almost certainly has 30 home run power (or more) at the Major League level. I could very easily see Santana developing into a .280/.380/.500 force behind the plate for years to come.
If there are concerns about Santana, it would be his size. At just 170lbs he's not by any means big, and one has to wonder if he's big enough to hold up to the kind of constant punishment catchers receive all year long. So far though, those concerns have been for naught as he's stayed healthy almost without exception from day one.
To open 2010 the Indians will have Santana at AAA to get a little more seasoning, but realistically, he could probably come up right now and make an impact at the Major League level. One almost has to assume that given their current options - Lou Marson will be the starter to open the seasons - that having Santana in AAA to open the year is about little more than preventing him from reach super-two status. Not that there is anything particularly wrong with that. The Indians need to be cost conscious and in a season where they aren't likely to be competing for a playoff spot, I see little harm in the decision. However I fully expect Carlos to be with the team in June and logging the lions share of the teams minutes behind the plate come July.
While it's unlikely that any of the catchers in the group I've spent the past few days discussing is of the caliber of the Twins Joe Mauer, as a whole, they have the potential to make the AL Central the strongest division for catchers in all of baseball.
The position of catcher is one of the most difficult to fill in baseball. The job is extremely physically demanding and because of that, offense from the position is generally pretty rare - there is no position other than pitcher where players average a lower OPS. The players who are able to hit from that position are immediately thrust into the upper echelon. With that said, catcher will always be a defense first position. The catcher is responsible for putting together the game plan, calling the game, framing the pitches, controlling the running game, and serving as the pitchers therapist between innings.
The AL Central is lucky to be able to boast four of baseballs best young receiving prospects with Alex Avila in Detroit (Scouting Book #127), Carlos Santana in Cleveland (B.A. #10/B.P. #8/ESPN #3/ S.B. #14), Tyler Flowers in Chicago (B.A. #60/ B.P. #72/ S.B. #93), and Wilson Ramos in Minnesota (B.A. #58/ B.P. #65/ ESPN #42/ S.B #95).
Carlos Santana
Besides having a song named smooth with my favorite artist, Santana has a pretty smooth game behind the plate it would appear. Santana was acquired (along with Jonathan Meloan) in 2008 from the Dodgers for Casey Blake and while Indians fans have yet to see much return in that deal, things are about to change quickly. Converted to catcher after being drafted as a third baseman, Santana certainly seems to be adapting nicely.
While no one is expecting him to be the second coming of Johnny Bench, Santana still brings a very solid game behind the plate. Scouts praise his lateral mobility which pitchers should love. For their part, pitchers have praised his game calling abilities and receiving skills, and overall he's left his coaches impressed at every level of the minors. His arm isn't going to be top flight - he threw out just 30% in AA - but it should be better than that of Victor Martinez.
As a 24 year old who will be opening the season in AAA, he might not have the typical advancement you'd see amongst a top prospect, but that's primarily because it's taken an extra year or two for his defensive game to get caught up. Offensively, Santana is a force. I could choose to nit-pick his strikeout rates, but at 19.4% last year, they're nothing like those of prospects I profiled earlier such as Tyler Flowers or Alex Avila. And the rest of his game is so much more advanced. His walk rates have been consistently strong - his 16.% last year was hardly abnormal. His career minor league batting average of .287 is solid and consistent across the levels and his power is exploding. Last year he belted 23 home runs in just 428 at-bats. As he matures, he almost certainly has 30 home run power (or more) at the Major League level. I could very easily see Santana developing into a .280/.380/.500 force behind the plate for years to come.
If there are concerns about Santana, it would be his size. At just 170lbs he's not by any means big, and one has to wonder if he's big enough to hold up to the kind of constant punishment catchers receive all year long. So far though, those concerns have been for naught as he's stayed healthy almost without exception from day one.
To open 2010 the Indians will have Santana at AAA to get a little more seasoning, but realistically, he could probably come up right now and make an impact at the Major League level. One almost has to assume that given their current options - Lou Marson will be the starter to open the seasons - that having Santana in AAA to open the year is about little more than preventing him from reach super-two status. Not that there is anything particularly wrong with that. The Indians need to be cost conscious and in a season where they aren't likely to be competing for a playoff spot, I see little harm in the decision. However I fully expect Carlos to be with the team in June and logging the lions share of the teams minutes behind the plate come July.
While it's unlikely that any of the catchers in the group I've spent the past few days discussing is of the caliber of the Twins Joe Mauer, as a whole, they have the potential to make the AL Central the strongest division for catchers in all of baseball.
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