Up and Coming Third Basemen: Part 4

Yesterday we got the ball rolling on our latest series here at AL Central In Focus, a look into Jonathan Mayo's list of the Top 10 third base prospects for 2011. We've already profiled the Tigers Nick Castellanos (#10), the Twins Miguel Sano (#5), and the White Sox Brent Morel (#3).

The first two players were 18 and 17 years old respectively last year, and despite having raw talent in spades, are a long ways from the Majors. The third player on the list, Morel, has the makings of a solid everyday player who will provide high end, and maybe even elite level defense.

The last two players on this list however are cats of a rarer breed. They possess multiple refined skills without clear weaknesses and have demonstrated the ability to succeed in the high minors. They are both very projectable and highly talented and could challenge for all-star teams. With that in mind, lets delve into into a diamond in the Cleveland rough;

Lonnie Chisenhall

Russell Martin as a Potential Catching Option For AL Central Teams?

Catching is always at a premium in baseball, and that's no different now. Two teams in the Central, the Twins and Indians seem to have their catching solutions at hand with Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. But for the other teams in the division, answers are less readily apparent. Near the outset of the 2010 season I wrote a series of articles about the Central's promising young catchers.

Since then, Santana has graduated to the Majors and made an impressive debut by posting a .868 OPS despite a poor BABIP before succumbing to a nasty injury that required surgery. Twins top-prospect Wilson Ramos was dealt to the Nationals where he's provided decent production in limited work.

The other two players, Alex Avila and Tyler Flowers have struggled to varying degrees. Avila has an OPS of just .654 , despite a much improved LD rate with consistent K and BB rates. Flowers has a more respectable .768 OPS in AAA, but that came replete with a 35% K rate that simply wont come anywhere close to cutting it in the Majors.

Of course, we also have to consider the emergence of Wil Myers in Kansas City as one of the better prospects in the game. He's still a few years away however and there are persistent questions as to whether he can stick behind the plate. But we've talked about him recently.

The more immediate catching concerns are with the White Sox and Tigers franchises. Two teams who are already competitive but who could use upgrades at catcher.

The White Sox at one point early in the year were tasked with the difficult decision of whether to deal starting catcher AJ Pierzynski as the team was floundering heading into June. They didn't and went on to post rattle off an impressive run to take the lead in the division. But with the Sox now officially eliminated, and Pierzynski headed toward free agency, attention must be drawn to the future of the position.

Flowers is an option, but his peripherals make him unlikely to succeed at the Majors offensively, while his defensive shortcomings don't seem to have improved by a considerable margin during his time at AAA this season. Unfortunately, he's the only realistic option in the system. Josh Phegley has been decent, but he also has just 72 at-bats at AA and has the same strikeout issues that plague Flowers, with significantly less power.

The Tigers are in a somewhat better position. While presumptive starter Gerald Laird has had two incredibly disappointing seasons in a row, and it appears he'll fail to crack the .600 mark for OPS this year. Yikes. Avila has been better (which isn't exactly saying much) but his season as a whole has still be a disappointment.

So given their proximity to competing, combined with the poor performance the two teams have received from the catchers position, it's not exactly a stretch to assume the teams will be looking to bolster their offense here. With what is shaping up as a poor catching crop in free agency - perhaps led by John Buck off a career year - I'm guessing GMs Kenny Williams and Dave Dombrowski will be scouring other teams rosters to see if they can find an upgrade.

One possible answer could be Russell Martin.

Martin came onto the scene back in 2006 by hitting .282 with a .792 OPS and 10 home runs as a 23 year old rookie. He backed up that performance by posting a .843 OPS in 2007 and a .781 in 2008.

Since then however, Martin's production has fallen off sharply and someone who was once viewed as one of the best young catchers in the game - compared favorably by many in the media to Joe Mauer - has seen his stock drop rapidly as his .680 OPS in 2009 and his .679 mark with 10 games remaining this season are well below average, even by catching standards.

Martin's offensive decline, combined with the fact that he'll be entering his final year of arbitration - where he'll be due for a raise on his 5.05m salary - and the Dodgers precarious ownership/payroll situation have conspired to make what once would've been almost unthinkable, a non-tender, perhaps likely.

The Dodgers are in a position where they're likely going to be forced to trade someone to make payroll for 2011. The most widely speculated names have been those of Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp. Two players who have also been disappointing to some degree, but who are also likely to fetch more in return.

However, it's also possible that they simply non-tender Martin this winter, making him a free agent. The other possibility would be a trade. The Dodgers could try and unload Martin (and the salary he'll make in 2011) for likely little more than minor league filler.

In either case, Martin could make sense for the Tigers or White Sox. Despite Martin's relatively poor performance, he's still been a fair margin better than any of their incumbent options appear to be. He also comes with something you won't find amongst the rest of the free agenct crop.

Upside.

While Martin's production stats have seen sharp declines the past couple years, I still see a lot to like.

Consider, when Martin experienced his most success during his first three seasons, he posted the following marks:

BB Rate (2006/2007/2008):
9.6% - 10.8% - 13.8%

K Rate:
13.7% - 16.5% - 15.0%

LD Rate:
19.9% - 17.5% - 19.4%


And now the marks for the past two seasons:

BB Rate (2009/2010):
11.7% - 12.4%

K Rate:
15.8% - 18.4%

LD Rate:
20.5% - 20.6%


As you can see, the rate stats really haven't changed much at all. Fundamentally, Martin remains the same hitter, posting above average strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. Another important rate, ground ball rate, remains unchanged as well. There is little reason that performance metrics that for three years supported solid production should suddenly be so incapable of doing so in the future.

The ground ball rate, it should be mentioned is the only real concern. It's always been consistent, and bad. Between 48.4% and 51.1% every year of his career. The obvious concern with ground ball hitters from a sabermetric point of view is that they rarely turn into extra base hits. They also tend to hold down a players BABIP if they have poor speed. However, Martin has never had exceptionally poor foot speed. He's actually quite a bit above average as catchers go.

I don't think Martin can replicate the successes he had when he broke into the league, but he should still be capable of providing league average offense and above average defense. To that end, even as he's posted poor offensive showings the past two years, he's posted WAR marks of 2.2 and 2.1 in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

With the Tigers set to shed Laird's 3.9m contract, and the White Sox dropping Pierzynski's 6.25m - there should be payroll available for both teams to pursue Martin via free agency or a trade, should they prefer to do so.

Travis Hafner's Misleading Second Half Surge

There has been much rejoicing in Cleveland since the All-Star break about the resurgent performance of Travis Hafner who has performed exceptionally well. Hafner has put together one of his best prolonged stretches in, well, a long time. All told, he's managed a .320/.388/.504 line that, if extrapolated over a full year, would be his best OPS since 2006.

The Indians are obviously an offensively challenged organization. Beyond Shin-Soo Choo (who might be the current reigning champion in the most-under-rated-player contest), and Carlos Santana, the Tribe lacks much in the way of legitimate firepower. Yes, players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt LaPorta have the potential to be solid supporting bats, but they need more. Cabrera's best season was a .799 OPS mark in 2009, and LaPorta has yet to realize the considerable potential many once saw in him.

An effective Hafner, even at a rate of production significantly less than that he produced during his peak years would be a significant boost to one of the weakest lineup in the American League. Indeed a lineup featuring Pronk at his second-half .892 OPS, Choo, and Santana could compete against most lineups provided the team could bring in a couple extra complementary bats to augment the top and bottom of the order.

Unfortunately, it appears that Hafner's second half resurgence is little more than a fluke resulting from an unsustainable .407 BABIP. This from a player with a career mark of .316. Sadly, nothing fundamental has changed for Hafner, his strikeout, walk, and line drive rates, along with his ISO remain essentially unchanged during the streak.

The Indians need to generate production from the middle of their lineup in a bad way. But they'll have to find some way other than relying upon Hafner, because he's not going to be the answer.

Wil Myers, The Next Carlos Santana?

Once again with the season winding down, Royals fans have little left to follow. One thing they can look forward to however is the play of Wil Myers. The raw but extremely talented Myers was drafted in the third round by the Royals who went above slot to sign the talented youngster who was considered on of the more intriguing high school bats in the '09 draft class.

The Royals got Myers' feet wet in 2009, sending him to the rookie leagues where he posted impressive numbers in a small 22 game sampling of things to come. They then opened him up at Low-A Burlington to open 2010. I tend to think that's awfully aggressive, but the Royals are known for pushing young bats they like pretty hard. He didn't disappoint as he posted a .908 OPS in 68 games there before a mid-season promotion to High-A Wilmington of the Carolina League. In a league where the average OPS for 2010 was just around .725, the 19 year old Myers posted a .966 mark in 58 games on the back of a .345 batting average.

Myers' average in High-A was aided by an unsustainably high BABIP, but there is a lot to like going forward in the peripherals. Registering 94 strikeouts in 447 at-bats, Myers does strikeout more than you'd like to see, but given that he was a 19 year old playing against guys usually at least 2-3 years his senior, that's far from concerning at this point. Extremely encouraging was his walk rate as he drew 85 free passes over the same period. The home run numbers don't exactly leap off the page - just 14 in 447 at-bats, but again, given the age and level, that's a very impressive number. In addition Myers showed he can run at least a little bit, registering three triples and twelve steals.

Defensively, the questions that plagued Myers out high school remain. Saying that of course should come as no surprise what-so-ever. He's in his first full year of catching and he's going to need a few more years to really develop that aspect of his game. That is of course, if it ever does develop. Not every catcher works out - indeed, many don't. But we won't have an answer to that question for at least a couple more years. Concerning ourselves too much with it now hardly seems worthwhile.

The exciting part to me is when you start playing the comparison game. And, as the title of this post no doubt suggests, I'm referring to the Indians Carlos Santana. Santana, a catching transplant didn't even get his first whiff of pro-ball until age 20. But at age 22 at High-A posted similarly eye-popping numbers with nearly identical strikeout and walk rates.

Making such simple comparisons is foolhardy - but it's fun. In this case, given that Myers is two years junior to where Santana was after exploding onto the scene in 2008, one can at least begin to build some dreams on the youngster. And in a city that has suffered so much for the past 25 years, dreams are a good thing. Especially when they come wrapped up in a talented young catcher.

Knock-knock. Whos there? Carlos Santana!

The Indians have gotten off to a sluggish 2-5 start in 2010, and there are a bevy of reasons why. More reasons for sure, than any one player could be blamed for. More reasons than any one player can fix. The starting pitching has been mediocre at best. The relief pitching has been terrible, the defense questionable, and the management... well, you get the idea.

At catcher, rookie Lou Marson has struggled both with the bat (1 hit in 15 at-bats) and in the field as there have been a number of wild pitches that probably should've been blocked, and inexcusable passed balls. Simply put, he's struggling, and his inability to knock down pitches in the dirt is hurting the confidence of the pitching staff to be able to throw their breaking stuff.

If his struggles behind the plate continue, it's going to force the Indians front office to consider making a decision they don't really want to. Namely, going to the minor leagues for help. That's because 'help,' in this case would be super-prospect Carlos Santana, and they don't want to start his arbitration clock yet, as it would set in motion the ability for Santana to reach super-two status.

Often when a prospect wants to get called up, he'll politely, "knock on the door." He'll hit well, field his position, show coachability... all good things. What Santana is doing isn't quite the same thing. No, what he's doing is taking a 34 ounce sledge hammer to the door and pounding it to smithereens.

So far in his first taste of AAA, Santana has bashed 4 home runs in just 20 at-bats, with a pair of doubles and three singles mixed in for good measure. His triple slash right now stands at .450/.500/.1.150. It's just a 20 at-bat sample size, but given his performance last year, it's obviously no fluke, and at 24, it's going to be his time very soon. The question is, how long can the Indians management continue to look the other way?

Indians Roundup: Week One

The Indians got their season off to a fine start with a two games to one series victory over the White Sox as they took the final two games after a miserable start by opening day pitcher starter Jake Westbrook who was hammered by Chicago. Thankfully they managed to get back on track with a pair of nice wins, including a come from behind, extra innings victory in the rubber match.

The second series against the Tigers didn't go nearly as well as they were shut down by two very mediocre pitchers in Dontrelle Willis, and and Jeremy Bonderman., and then blew a huge lead in the final game as they tagged Tigers ace Justin Verlander for 6 runs, only to see the bullpen blow the lead as they allowed nine runs in the final four innings, finally losing on a game tying walk, followed by a game losing wild pitch. Heart breaking stuff.

Offensively, the Tribe really struggled as the only two players to break the .800 OPS mark were second baseman Luis Valbuena (.806) and third baseman Johnny Peralta (.810). Obviously players like Grady Sizemore (.759), and Shin-Soo Choo (.619) aren't going to continue to hit so poorly, and the offense should be better. Actually, with Sizemore, Choo, Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner and top prospects Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Santana, I think the Indians offense will be pretty good in 2011. But as of right now, that future is still a little ways off.

The issue with the Indians on a long-term basis is going to be pitching. They simply don't have much of it. I believe Justin Masterson and Fausto Carmona can be above average arms, and prospects Hector Rondon, and Carlos Carrasco show varying levels of promise, but is that enough? I'm not sold.

Ultimately, the Indians season is going to depend on how quickly the young bats develop. It won't be enough to help them win this year, but it can at least lay the groundwork for 2011 and it'll be a progression we'll be following closely here at AL Central in Focus.

Up and Coming Catchers, Pt. 4

This is the last of what will be a four part examination of the AL Centrals glut of catching talent. You can see parts one, two, and three at these links.

The position of catcher is one of the most difficult to fill in baseball. The job is extremely physically demanding and because of that, offense from the position is generally pretty rare - there is no position other than pitcher where players average a lower OPS. The players who are able to hit from that position are immediately thrust into the upper echelon. With that said, catcher will always be a defense first position. The catcher is responsible for putting together the game plan, calling the game, framing the pitches, controlling the running game, and serving as the pitchers therapist between innings.

The AL Central is lucky to be able to boast four of baseballs best young receiving prospects with Alex Avila in Detroit (Scouting Book #127), Carlos Santana in Cleveland (B.A. #10/B.P. #8/ESPN #3/ S.B. #14), Tyler Flowers in Chicago (B.A. #60/ B.P. #72/ S.B. #93), and Wilson Ramos in Minnesota (B.A. #58/ B.P. #65/ ESPN #42/ S.B #95).

Carlos Santana

Besides having a song named smooth with my favorite artist, Santana has a pretty smooth game behind the plate it would appear. Santana was acquired (along with Jonathan Meloan) in 2008 from the Dodgers for Casey Blake and while Indians fans have yet to see much return in that deal, things are about to change quickly. Converted to catcher after being drafted as a third baseman, Santana certainly seems to be adapting nicely.

While no one is expecting him to be the second coming of Johnny Bench, Santana still brings a very solid game behind the plate. Scouts praise his lateral mobility which pitchers should love. For their part, pitchers have praised his game calling abilities and receiving skills, and overall he's left his coaches impressed at every level of the minors. His arm isn't going to be top flight - he threw out just 30% in AA - but it should be better than that of Victor Martinez.

As a 24 year old who will be opening the season in AAA, he might not have the typical advancement you'd see amongst a top prospect, but that's primarily because it's taken an extra year or two for his defensive game to get caught up. Offensively, Santana is a force. I could choose to nit-pick his strikeout rates, but at 19.4% last year, they're nothing like those of prospects I profiled earlier such as Tyler Flowers or Alex Avila. And the rest of his game is so much more advanced. His walk rates have been consistently strong - his 16.% last year was hardly abnormal. His career minor league batting average of .287 is solid and consistent across the levels and his power is exploding. Last year he belted 23 home runs in just 428 at-bats. As he matures, he almost certainly has 30 home run power (or more) at the Major League level. I could very easily see Santana developing into a .280/.380/.500 force behind the plate for years to come.

If there are concerns about Santana, it would be his size. At just 170lbs he's not by any means big, and one has to wonder if he's big enough to hold up to the kind of constant punishment catchers receive all year long. So far though, those concerns have been for naught as he's stayed healthy almost without exception from day one.

To open 2010 the Indians will have Santana at AAA to get a little more seasoning, but realistically, he could probably come up right now and make an impact at the Major League level. One almost has to assume that given their current options - Lou Marson will be the starter to open the seasons - that having Santana in AAA to open the year is about little more than preventing him from reach super-two status. Not that there is anything particularly wrong with that. The Indians need to be cost conscious and in a season where they aren't likely to be competing for a playoff spot, I see little harm in the decision. However I fully expect Carlos to be with the team in June and logging the lions share of the teams minutes behind the plate come July.

While it's unlikely that any of the catchers in the group I've spent the past few days discussing is of the caliber of the Twins Joe Mauer, as a whole, they have the potential to make the AL Central the strongest division for catchers in all of baseball.