Tepid Optimism for Alex Avila

Alex Avila has been a more than pleasant surprise for the Detroit Tigers this season at catcher. After disappointing starts to the season from a number of Tigers, Alex Avila has done his best to keep the team afloat on offense. Through 204 plate appearances Avila has a .907 OPS with 9 home runs, 13 doubles, and even 3 triples. He currently has a .258 ISO and an absurd .389 wOBA both marks are first for qualified catchers by a mile (among unqualified catchers his ISO is second to Mike Napoli).

Needless to say, Avila has been one of, if not the top backstop in the MLB the first two months of the season. The question then becomes, can he keep it up? At first blush the answer would seem to be definitely not. This is the same guy coming off of a wOBA of .297 in his first full season and .112 ISO, numbers on the lower side even for a catcher. As a result, his improvement this season is well beyond any kind of reasonable expectation of improvement anybody could have had for him coming into this season.

What's the Catch? Avila vs Martinez Broken Down

When the Tigers signed Victor Martinez, both the Manager Jim Leyland as well as GM Dave Dombrowski were adamant that Martinez wouldn't do the bulk of the catching. Leyland said he saw Martinez as someone who could DH and play first base some while Dombrowski said he envisioned Martinez catching "two or three days a week." Clearly it was never the plan for the defensively challenged Martinez to be the full-time backstop. Instead the job of primary catcher would belong to Alex Avila.

Tigers Ink Catcher Victor martinez

With a need in the bullpen addressed by the signing of reliever Joaquin Benoit earlier, Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski turned his attention to solidifying a catchers position that was amongst the worst in the league offensively in 2010. To do so, he signed none other than Victor Martinez, hands down the bet option available among this seasons crop of free agent catchers. While we can debate the overall value of Martinez as a catcher and how he will fit in with the 2011 Tigers (and we will, at length!) it’s safe to say that the acquisition of Martinez will, at a minimum, make the the Tigers often punchless lineup last season, much more formidable for the foreseeable future.

First, lets break down the contract. At four years, and fifty million dollars - the Tigers will be acquiring Martinez for what is likely to be the beginning of the decline phase of his career. Ideally, you’d probably like to give Martinez, 33 in late December, maybe just three years as catchers (and most players in general) tend to decline offensive at a pretty steep rate after age 34-35. But given the scarcity of good hitting catchers, combined with the Tigers general lack of offense, and the fact that Martinez will likely spend a good amount of time at designated hitter - the contract has an above average chance at being worthwhile in my opinion.

Over the past four full seasons, Martinez has been worth 4.5 (2007), 0.6 (2008), 4.7 (2009), and 3.0 WAR (2010) - using our standard rate of 4.25m per win, he’s been worth a total 54.4m during those three seasons. Of course, his 2008 was mostly lost due to injury, and that’s worth at least noting.

Given the fact that hose four seasons were essentially the back-end of his prime, and he’ll be 33 at the outset of this contract, it’s unlikely that he duplicates that level of value - but he doesn’t need to in order to justify his deal. At 50m over four years, he’ll need to average ‘just’ 2.94 WAR per season. Obviously that’s still an impressive mark, and it will be difficult for him to attain without spending significant time as a close-to-league-average catcher - but it’s do-able. The switch hitting Martinez, even at 32 years old, didn’t show any noticeable signs of decline at the plate as he continued to hit with the games best offensive catchers, posting a .302/.351/.493 - .844 OPS that was second only to Joe Mauer in the American League.

Of course his value to the Tigers will ultimately be defined by just how much time he can spend behind the plate as a capable option at catcher, because his bat is great at that position, but significantly less so as a DH. Martinez has long been known as a below average receiver behind the plate, and struggled as much as ever in throwing out runners in 2010 as teams ran at will, stealing 99 bases in 125 attempts (a 79.5% success rate). But if he can manage to stay healthy, and not get any worse, at least in the near-term (the next two years) he’ll provide just what the Tigers need.

In Alex Avila the Tigers have a solid back-up. The 23 year old Avila was rushed to the Majors in 2009 as the Tigers needed someone to pair with the now departed Gerald Laird, and his power bat against right-handed pitching helped carry the Tigers through their late-season playoff push that ultimately came up just short. But Avila, at this point at least, is strictly a platoon option as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. That said, he’s a solid if unspectacular defender who does a capable job of controlling the running game and should be a fine late-game replacement should the Tigers feel the need to replace Martinez in such situations. Offensively, he’ll make a decent platoon partner against right-handed pitching when the Tigers decide to have Martinez DH.

As Martinez ages, particularly over the final two years of his contract, it’s likely that he’ll be increasingly relegated to DH duties where his bat should still be around league average for the position. The hope for the Tigers would be that Martinez stays healthy and proves to be a capable option at catcher for the next two seasons while continuing to post WAR marks in the 4.0 range while providing help in the middle of the lineup -either by creating chances in front of Miguel Cabrera, or by providing “protection” (which I really don’t believe in) behind him. Personally, I’d probably bat Martinez ahead of Cabrera if only because Martinez’s bat simply isn’t such a threat, even now, to prevent teams from working around Cabrera.

If Martinez can stay healthy and follow a WAR progression of 4.0 - 4.0 - 2.5 - 2.5 through his contract, he’ll more than justify the signing. Of course, that’s always the risk in signing free agents. You’re going to pay them for the best possible scenario, and are always unlikely to get it. But as free agent signings go, I think this is one that will pay off.

Russell Martin as a Potential Catching Option For AL Central Teams?

Catching is always at a premium in baseball, and that's no different now. Two teams in the Central, the Twins and Indians seem to have their catching solutions at hand with Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. But for the other teams in the division, answers are less readily apparent. Near the outset of the 2010 season I wrote a series of articles about the Central's promising young catchers.

Since then, Santana has graduated to the Majors and made an impressive debut by posting a .868 OPS despite a poor BABIP before succumbing to a nasty injury that required surgery. Twins top-prospect Wilson Ramos was dealt to the Nationals where he's provided decent production in limited work.

The other two players, Alex Avila and Tyler Flowers have struggled to varying degrees. Avila has an OPS of just .654 , despite a much improved LD rate with consistent K and BB rates. Flowers has a more respectable .768 OPS in AAA, but that came replete with a 35% K rate that simply wont come anywhere close to cutting it in the Majors.

Of course, we also have to consider the emergence of Wil Myers in Kansas City as one of the better prospects in the game. He's still a few years away however and there are persistent questions as to whether he can stick behind the plate. But we've talked about him recently.

The more immediate catching concerns are with the White Sox and Tigers franchises. Two teams who are already competitive but who could use upgrades at catcher.

The White Sox at one point early in the year were tasked with the difficult decision of whether to deal starting catcher AJ Pierzynski as the team was floundering heading into June. They didn't and went on to post rattle off an impressive run to take the lead in the division. But with the Sox now officially eliminated, and Pierzynski headed toward free agency, attention must be drawn to the future of the position.

Flowers is an option, but his peripherals make him unlikely to succeed at the Majors offensively, while his defensive shortcomings don't seem to have improved by a considerable margin during his time at AAA this season. Unfortunately, he's the only realistic option in the system. Josh Phegley has been decent, but he also has just 72 at-bats at AA and has the same strikeout issues that plague Flowers, with significantly less power.

The Tigers are in a somewhat better position. While presumptive starter Gerald Laird has had two incredibly disappointing seasons in a row, and it appears he'll fail to crack the .600 mark for OPS this year. Yikes. Avila has been better (which isn't exactly saying much) but his season as a whole has still be a disappointment.

So given their proximity to competing, combined with the poor performance the two teams have received from the catchers position, it's not exactly a stretch to assume the teams will be looking to bolster their offense here. With what is shaping up as a poor catching crop in free agency - perhaps led by John Buck off a career year - I'm guessing GMs Kenny Williams and Dave Dombrowski will be scouring other teams rosters to see if they can find an upgrade.

One possible answer could be Russell Martin.

Martin came onto the scene back in 2006 by hitting .282 with a .792 OPS and 10 home runs as a 23 year old rookie. He backed up that performance by posting a .843 OPS in 2007 and a .781 in 2008.

Since then however, Martin's production has fallen off sharply and someone who was once viewed as one of the best young catchers in the game - compared favorably by many in the media to Joe Mauer - has seen his stock drop rapidly as his .680 OPS in 2009 and his .679 mark with 10 games remaining this season are well below average, even by catching standards.

Martin's offensive decline, combined with the fact that he'll be entering his final year of arbitration - where he'll be due for a raise on his 5.05m salary - and the Dodgers precarious ownership/payroll situation have conspired to make what once would've been almost unthinkable, a non-tender, perhaps likely.

The Dodgers are in a position where they're likely going to be forced to trade someone to make payroll for 2011. The most widely speculated names have been those of Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp. Two players who have also been disappointing to some degree, but who are also likely to fetch more in return.

However, it's also possible that they simply non-tender Martin this winter, making him a free agent. The other possibility would be a trade. The Dodgers could try and unload Martin (and the salary he'll make in 2011) for likely little more than minor league filler.

In either case, Martin could make sense for the Tigers or White Sox. Despite Martin's relatively poor performance, he's still been a fair margin better than any of their incumbent options appear to be. He also comes with something you won't find amongst the rest of the free agenct crop.

Upside.

While Martin's production stats have seen sharp declines the past couple years, I still see a lot to like.

Consider, when Martin experienced his most success during his first three seasons, he posted the following marks:

BB Rate (2006/2007/2008):
9.6% - 10.8% - 13.8%

K Rate:
13.7% - 16.5% - 15.0%

LD Rate:
19.9% - 17.5% - 19.4%


And now the marks for the past two seasons:

BB Rate (2009/2010):
11.7% - 12.4%

K Rate:
15.8% - 18.4%

LD Rate:
20.5% - 20.6%


As you can see, the rate stats really haven't changed much at all. Fundamentally, Martin remains the same hitter, posting above average strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. Another important rate, ground ball rate, remains unchanged as well. There is little reason that performance metrics that for three years supported solid production should suddenly be so incapable of doing so in the future.

The ground ball rate, it should be mentioned is the only real concern. It's always been consistent, and bad. Between 48.4% and 51.1% every year of his career. The obvious concern with ground ball hitters from a sabermetric point of view is that they rarely turn into extra base hits. They also tend to hold down a players BABIP if they have poor speed. However, Martin has never had exceptionally poor foot speed. He's actually quite a bit above average as catchers go.

I don't think Martin can replicate the successes he had when he broke into the league, but he should still be capable of providing league average offense and above average defense. To that end, even as he's posted poor offensive showings the past two years, he's posted WAR marks of 2.2 and 2.1 in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

With the Tigers set to shed Laird's 3.9m contract, and the White Sox dropping Pierzynski's 6.25m - there should be payroll available for both teams to pursue Martin via free agency or a trade, should they prefer to do so.

The Tigers and the Angels Sittin' In A Tree...

Talking T.RA.D.E.

The Tigers are off to a good start, going 6-3 against the Royals and Cleveland. But one huge, glaring issue has been production behind the plate. And not just offensively. The Tigers catching tandem of Gerald Laird and Alex Avila have combined for just five hits in thirty five at-bats. There is little hope of a significant change either. Laird at his best is a league average offensive catcher, and he hasn't been that for the past couple seasons. Avila is strictly a platoon player at this point as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching.

Perhaps more discouraging, they've been abysmal defensively. This is particularly astounding given Laird's great defensive reputation. But after failing to make a play on a runner coming home in the final game of the Royals series, throwing a ball into right field on a sacrifice bunt against the Mariners, and throwing out just two of nine base stealers, well, things aren't going well.

While it's generally far too early to be talking about potential trades, the situation in Anaheim is as hot now as it's going to be. The Angels have an out of options catcher in Bobby Wilson that they know wont clear waivers, yet have no need to carry three catchers on the big league squad. Wilson's minor league production has been good, but not great and he projects as perhaps a slightly above average offensive catcher. But what Wilson does do well by all accounts, is play defense. He is a legitimate standout defender. However, with defensive stalwart Jeff Mathis already on the roster, the Angels don't really have a place for him.

The Angels one would assume, would be totally amenable to trading Wilson. He's a superfluous piece that doesn't add anything to the roster. yet he holds value around the league because solid catchers simply aren't easy to come by. The question Tigers GM Dave Dombrowksi would have to ask himself is, "will acquiring Bobby Wilson be worth the price to do so, if Laird can simply start playing his regular Gold Glove caliber defense?"

That's not an easy question to answer, but I'm leaning toward no. That's not because I believe Laird is an exceptional overall player (though he's far better than many give him credit for) but rather because the cost to acquire Wilson won't be mere pennies in all likelihood. There are simply too many teams in need of a solid catcher. The Red Sox spring to mind. But given the extreme degree of cost control with Wilson, he's a player all 29 other teams could make a play for.

The bigger, sexier trade possibility is for the Tigers to attempt to acquire Mike Napoli.

If you were to ask a collection of 100 baseball fans who the top three offensive catchers in baseball are, I doubt more than a half dozen would say Mike Napoli. But the simple facts are that the guy rakes. He hits, and he hits a lot. The WORST OPS Napoli has posted since 2006 was .794, and he posted a gaudy .960 in 2008. Yet Napoli has been largely relegated to back-up duty and yesterday he voiced his frustrations. For their part, the Angels seem willing to listen to offers.

The one thing holding Napoli back from elite status is his defense. He's a serious liability behind the plate, throwing out an average of just 23% of attempted base thieves.

I'm not prepared to speculate on what sort of package the Angels would be looking for in return, perhaps I'll revisit that at a later date when/if this goes anywhere and once I get an idea of exactly what the market looks like. Or at least, a batter idea. But simply looking at the Angels roster, you'd expect they'd be looking for help at third base, and in the rotation.

Up and Coming Catchers, Pt. 1

This is the first of what will be a four part examination of the AL Centrals glut of catching talent.

The position of catcher is one of the most difficult to fill in baseball. The job is extremely physically demanding and because of that, offense from the position is generally pretty rare - there is no position other than pitcher where players average a lower OPS. The players who are able to hit from that position are immediately thrust into the upper echelon. With that said, catcher will always be a defense first position. The catcher is responsible for putting together the game plan, calling the game, framing the pitches, controlling the running game, and serving as the pitchers therapist between innings.

The AL Central is lucky to be able to boast four of baseballs best young receiving prospects with Alex Avila in Detroit (Scouting Book #127), Carlos Santana in Cleveland (B.A. #10/B.P. #8/ESPN #3/ S.B. #14), Tyler Flowers in Chicago (B.A. #60/ B.P. #72/ S.B. #93), and Wilson Ramos in Minnesota (B.A. #58/ B.P. #65/ ESPN #42/ S.B #95).

Alex Avila

We'll begin with the lowest rated of the quartet, Alex Avila, and work our way up the lists. Avila got his first cup of coffee with the Tigers last year after sky-rocketing up the Tigers farm system (he was drafted in '08!). Avila had not yet played a single game at AAA, and had only 387 at-bats at AA before getting the call last year when the Tigers were in the midst of the playoff chase.

Defensively, Avila receives average to above-average grades. He threw out an impressive 44% of would be base stealers at AA last year but just 27% in the Majors and his game calling and receiving could still use some refinement. That said, Tigers Manager Jim Leyland loves Avila's tools and he'll definitely be the first option for a call-up should Gerald Laird - who was robbed of a Gold Glove last year by AL Central mate Joe Mauer - get injured or be ineffective.

Offensively Avila has shown terrific power potential, posting a .188 ISO in AA last year before raking 9 extra base hits (5 homers!) in just 72 at-bats with the Tigers last year for an ISO of .311. According to the scouts he still needs work against lefties, as he hit just .216 against them last year at AA. Also, as one might expect with someone pushed so aggressively, Avila has struggled mightily with strikeouts, doing so in 23.4% of his AA at-bats last year, and 29.5% of his at-bats in the Majors.

Avila's strong debut is being followed up with a similarly impressive spring training. This March Avila has hit .350 while raking 8 doubles in just 40 at-bats while showing an improved eye at the plate posting 7 walks against just seven strikeouts. That of course comes with the standard caveat that those are just spring training numbers and should be treated as such.

Avila is going to need some time in the minors to refine his game and learn how to hit breaking pitches as well as lefties, but if the Tigers are willing to be patient with him and let him make the adjustments that need to be made, he could have a very high ceiling given his power potential and solid defensive abilities. With another good season at AAA (where he can cut down on his strikeout rates), he'll vault to the upper reaches of the top prospects lists and be practically drop-kicking Laird into a job with another team next year.

If they rush him too much however, and he's never allowed to make the necessary adjustments, he's the sort of player who might never reach his full potential. While the Tigers will likely be in the thick of the AL Central race again this year, they'd be wise to play it as close to the vest as they can with this promising back-stop.