Showing posts with label Tyler Flowers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tyler Flowers. Show all posts

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Tyler Flowers Gets The Call

Following the fastball that found Ramon Castro's throwing hand, resulting in him breaking that hand, I guessed that the White Sox would call up 25 year old prospect Tyler Flowers and indeed that is the case.

The right handed hitting Flowers who was acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade is an interesting prospect in many ways. A very big young man at 6'4" 240lbs, he's obviously rather over-sized for the position. For many years that size largely kept him from being an adequate defender, but the difference that I saw in him during spring training, coupled with what I've seen of him throughout this season have me believing that his defense has improved to the point where he could be adequate (but probably still a bit below average) on an every day basis.

Saturday, July 9, 2011

Ramon Castro Breaks Throwing Hand

In the 8th inning of tonight's Twins, White Sox game with Jason Repko on second base, Twins second baseman Alexi Casilla squared around to bunt for a base hit, causing Sox catcher Ramon Castro to come out of his crouch. Casilla bulled the bat back, but Castro, perhaps distracted by the attempt missed catching the ball which instead sailed over his glove and hit him in his throwing hand. He immediately reacted in pain, but ran down the ball (which had sailed to the backstop) and made his way back to the plate before time was called.

The team immediately removed Castro from the game and took him down into the tunnel without so much as having him remove his catchers gear. A.J. Pierzynski would come on to replace Castro, record a leadoff double in the bottom of the 9th and come around to score the game winning run.

After the game it was announced that Castro had broken his right hand. While no timetable has been laid out yet, one would expect the injury to sideline Castro for at least 2-4 weeks. We also haven't received word on who the team will call up, but one would imagine that prospect Tyler Flowers could be the one who gets the call. Despite being extremely strikeout prone, Flowers has posted a .866 OPS at AAA so far this season, something that must be attractive to a White Sox team that's been rather starved for offense.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Tyler Flowers Having a Strong Spring

Around this time last year I ran profiles on what was a promising group of young catchers throughout the Central, and one of those profiles was on the White Sox Tyler Flowers. While the group has experienced varied results, Flowers has just 35 plate appearances spread over the past two seasons to his credit.

He's also a player in dire need of a strong comeback season. While strikeout concerns have plagued Flowers throughout his career, something I mentioned while profiling him last season, he retains impressive power and posted a .214 ISO in AAA during the 2010 season. Regrettably, he also saw his already disturbingly high strikeout rate climb yet another 5 points to 35%.

Friday, December 10, 2010

White Sox Bring Back A.J. Pierzynski

After six seasons of his patented instigation antics behind the plate for the White Sox, A.J. Pierzynski found himself as a free agent for the first time since the end of the 2004 season. To make matter worse, he was coming off his worst offensive performance of the millennium (hey, it's fun to say!) after posting an OPS of just .688. Thankfully for A.J., the crop of free agent catchers wasn't overwhelmingly attractive, perhaps being headlined by the defensively challenged John Buck. Once he was signed away by the Marlins early on, there was little else behind him.

Re-enter Kenny Williams.

With his lone remaining catcher under contract being the light-hitting, defensive minded Ramon Castro, and his best minor league option, Tyler Flowers, struggling at AAA with his plate discipline and defense, Williams made the bold move of bringing Pierzynski back on a back-loaded two-year contract that would prove to be the final domino that remained to fall prior to Williams being able to make his push to re-sign long-time first baseman Paul Konerko.

As with many free-agent signings, this one, at least on it's face, appears to be reasonable. Pierzynski has been worth 2.4 and 1.8 WAR the past two seasons - and at an average of of 4m per season, should easily justify his contract.

But as I highlighted in my review of the Victor Martinez signing by Detroit earlier, catchers have shown a propensity to drop off offensively earlier than their counterparts who play other, less physically demanding positions. That's likely a result of the wear and tear on a players knees and back that a catcher must deal with. Irregardless, it's a fact of life for most players. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the seemingly ageless Jorge Posada who, despite a massive decline in defense the past four seasons, has remained a very solid contributor on offense. But the rare case of an ageless Posada shouldn't cloud our judgement of the manner in which the position as a whole has aged throughout the years, signing Pierzynki - who has just one season with an OPS over .730 in the past four years - is a risk.

Thankfully to say, the risks are at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that the deal is just for two years and rarely has a team been done-in by such a short-term deal. And lets be clear, the White Sox aren't going to suffer significantly even if Pierzynski continues to hit as poorly as he did last year.

Rather, my concerns on this signing are rather nuanced. But that doesn't make them any less relevant.
First of all, I question the need to go to two years. How many other teams were in on the bidding? It's always tough to say, but from reports, the only team that seemed to have clear interest was the Blue Jays (whom the aforementioned Buck was departing). But when we look at the Jays, we see that they have a solid MLB-ready prospect in J.P. Arencibia and another in Travis D'Arnaud who is probably only one or two years off. 

Beyond the Blue Jays, there are very few teams with an obvious need at the position (the Red Sox, Dodgers, and maybe the Mariners stand/stood out) and even then, the number of relatively comparable players seems to outstrip demand. Indeed, the Mariners just signed former White Sox catcher Miguel Olivo - who is two years younger than Pierzynski, who has been both a better offensive player the past two years, and a much better defender throughout his career - for a million dollars less.

Was signing Pierzynski to a two year deal really necessary? Doubtful.

Furthermore, was Pierzynski really the best available option? As the signing of Olivo points out, probably not. I question whether he's even better than the man who will be backing him up. Let's be certain, Castro is probably not quite the caliber of offensive player that Pierzynski is, but he's not particularly worse and he's almost certainly a somewhat better defensive option as baserunners have stolen on Pierzysnki with near impunity the past three years, swiping 270 total bases at a 78% success rate.


Of course, there are other factors to consider. Pierzynski is a tenured member of the White Sox, a veteran of their World Series run (a "proven winner"), and a legitimate warrior behind the plate as he's donned the tools of ignorance more times than any catcher in baseball the past three seasons. He's also a major pain-in-the-ass for the opposing teams hitters.

Will the signing of AJ likely prove worthwhile? Probably. After all, even while experiencing his worst offensive year of this millennium (yup, still fun to say) he was worth 1.8 WAR. More than enough to justify an average yearly salary of 4m. And perhaps that's all that should matter. But for me, the little things matter. And there are little things about this deal that I just don't like.

I think the Sox could've done better. And could've done better for less.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Russell Martin as a Potential Catching Option For AL Central Teams?

Catching is always at a premium in baseball, and that's no different now. Two teams in the Central, the Twins and Indians seem to have their catching solutions at hand with Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. But for the other teams in the division, answers are less readily apparent. Near the outset of the 2010 season I wrote a series of articles about the Central's promising young catchers.

Since then, Santana has graduated to the Majors and made an impressive debut by posting a .868 OPS despite a poor BABIP before succumbing to a nasty injury that required surgery. Twins top-prospect Wilson Ramos was dealt to the Nationals where he's provided decent production in limited work.

The other two players, Alex Avila and Tyler Flowers have struggled to varying degrees. Avila has an OPS of just .654 , despite a much improved LD rate with consistent K and BB rates. Flowers has a more respectable .768 OPS in AAA, but that came replete with a 35% K rate that simply wont come anywhere close to cutting it in the Majors.

Of course, we also have to consider the emergence of Wil Myers in Kansas City as one of the better prospects in the game. He's still a few years away however and there are persistent questions as to whether he can stick behind the plate. But we've talked about him recently.

The more immediate catching concerns are with the White Sox and Tigers franchises. Two teams who are already competitive but who could use upgrades at catcher.

The White Sox at one point early in the year were tasked with the difficult decision of whether to deal starting catcher AJ Pierzynski as the team was floundering heading into June. They didn't and went on to post rattle off an impressive run to take the lead in the division. But with the Sox now officially eliminated, and Pierzynski headed toward free agency, attention must be drawn to the future of the position.

Flowers is an option, but his peripherals make him unlikely to succeed at the Majors offensively, while his defensive shortcomings don't seem to have improved by a considerable margin during his time at AAA this season. Unfortunately, he's the only realistic option in the system. Josh Phegley has been decent, but he also has just 72 at-bats at AA and has the same strikeout issues that plague Flowers, with significantly less power.

The Tigers are in a somewhat better position. While presumptive starter Gerald Laird has had two incredibly disappointing seasons in a row, and it appears he'll fail to crack the .600 mark for OPS this year. Yikes. Avila has been better (which isn't exactly saying much) but his season as a whole has still be a disappointment.

So given their proximity to competing, combined with the poor performance the two teams have received from the catchers position, it's not exactly a stretch to assume the teams will be looking to bolster their offense here. With what is shaping up as a poor catching crop in free agency - perhaps led by John Buck off a career year - I'm guessing GMs Kenny Williams and Dave Dombrowski will be scouring other teams rosters to see if they can find an upgrade.

One possible answer could be Russell Martin.

Martin came onto the scene back in 2006 by hitting .282 with a .792 OPS and 10 home runs as a 23 year old rookie. He backed up that performance by posting a .843 OPS in 2007 and a .781 in 2008.

Since then however, Martin's production has fallen off sharply and someone who was once viewed as one of the best young catchers in the game - compared favorably by many in the media to Joe Mauer - has seen his stock drop rapidly as his .680 OPS in 2009 and his .679 mark with 10 games remaining this season are well below average, even by catching standards.

Martin's offensive decline, combined with the fact that he'll be entering his final year of arbitration - where he'll be due for a raise on his 5.05m salary - and the Dodgers precarious ownership/payroll situation have conspired to make what once would've been almost unthinkable, a non-tender, perhaps likely.

The Dodgers are in a position where they're likely going to be forced to trade someone to make payroll for 2011. The most widely speculated names have been those of Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp. Two players who have also been disappointing to some degree, but who are also likely to fetch more in return.

However, it's also possible that they simply non-tender Martin this winter, making him a free agent. The other possibility would be a trade. The Dodgers could try and unload Martin (and the salary he'll make in 2011) for likely little more than minor league filler.

In either case, Martin could make sense for the Tigers or White Sox. Despite Martin's relatively poor performance, he's still been a fair margin better than any of their incumbent options appear to be. He also comes with something you won't find amongst the rest of the free agenct crop.

Upside.

While Martin's production stats have seen sharp declines the past couple years, I still see a lot to like.

Consider, when Martin experienced his most success during his first three seasons, he posted the following marks:

BB Rate (2006/2007/2008):
9.6% - 10.8% - 13.8%

K Rate:
13.7% - 16.5% - 15.0%

LD Rate:
19.9% - 17.5% - 19.4%


And now the marks for the past two seasons:

BB Rate (2009/2010):
11.7% - 12.4%

K Rate:
15.8% - 18.4%

LD Rate:
20.5% - 20.6%


As you can see, the rate stats really haven't changed much at all. Fundamentally, Martin remains the same hitter, posting above average strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. Another important rate, ground ball rate, remains unchanged as well. There is little reason that performance metrics that for three years supported solid production should suddenly be so incapable of doing so in the future.

The ground ball rate, it should be mentioned is the only real concern. It's always been consistent, and bad. Between 48.4% and 51.1% every year of his career. The obvious concern with ground ball hitters from a sabermetric point of view is that they rarely turn into extra base hits. They also tend to hold down a players BABIP if they have poor speed. However, Martin has never had exceptionally poor foot speed. He's actually quite a bit above average as catchers go.

I don't think Martin can replicate the successes he had when he broke into the league, but he should still be capable of providing league average offense and above average defense. To that end, even as he's posted poor offensive showings the past two years, he's posted WAR marks of 2.2 and 2.1 in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

With the Tigers set to shed Laird's 3.9m contract, and the White Sox dropping Pierzynski's 6.25m - there should be payroll available for both teams to pursue Martin via free agency or a trade, should they prefer to do so.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

AL Central's Top Trade Chips

MLB Trade Rumors has posted it's "Top Trade Chips" article for the AL Central.

Some thoughts:

- Axisa speculates that the Indians might try and trade Jake Westbrook for prospects. Could they really get anything legitimate in return? And who would take his 11m salary? I'm sure the Indians would LOVE to be able to dump his contract and get players back, but I don't know if thats really a possibility. Prior to his injury, Westbrook was a consistent sub 4.00 xFIP pitcher but he missed all of 2009 and has really struggled so far this year.

- The speculation that the Royals could look to deal - well, essentially their entire outfield - sounds about right. If Jose Guillen continues to hit, I'm sure the Royals would jump at the chance to move his contract. If Rick Ankiel proves healthy and effective with the bat, he too could be moved with Mitch Maier taking over in center. And of course, I already touched on a possible David DeJesus trade.

- Speculation about the Twins moving Wilson Ramos and Glen Perkins seems just about right. Many have speculated that the Twins would deal him for a closer. I doubt that. High end catching prospects should be able to yield a much larger return than that. Maybe not by himself, but in a package, he should be used to return either an elite third baseman or starting pitcher. Perkins has fallen out of favor with management, and the Twins would love to trade him, but the way he's pitched lately, I don't know who would want him or why.

- As for the White Sox, Axisa names Tyler Flowers and Daniel Hudson as his two best, most advanced prospects, and he's right. But he's also right in the sense that you never have any clue what Kenny Williams is going to do. The White Sox could use some offensive help, but it's probably too early to begin speculation.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Ramon Castro to DL

White Sox backup catcher Ramon Castro will begin the season on the 15-day DL. Donny Lucy will instead serve as A.J. Pierzynski's caddy in the meantime. As backup catchers go, Castro is a good one, and his career .723 OPS is actually above league average for a catcher. He struggled somewhat posting an OPS of just .699 as he split time between the Mets and South Siders last season.

Lucy isn't the best option the White Sox could call on, that would've been the recently profiled Tyler Flowers. However the White Sox certainly want him receiving full time at-bats at AAA instead of waiting for the occasional start behind Pierzynski. White Sox fans may be a tad disappointed, but it's the best move overall for the organization. 20 at-bats at the beginning of the season aren't going to make or break anything after all.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Up and Coming Catchers, Pt 2

Tyler Flowers

With A.J. Pierzynski heading into his walk year, the White Sox are fortunate to have a replacement at the ready in the form of Tyler Flowers. Acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade in back in 2008 from the Braves, Flowers has been a top prospect since breaking out as a prospect in his pro debut in 2006. Flowers has always shown impressive power, an ability to get on base, and solid if unspectacular batting averages.

Like the aforementioned Avila, Flowers got his first taste of big league action last year in a tiny 20 at-bat sample late in the season. Unlike Avila, he didn't make much of it. Instead he struck out in eight of his twenty at-bats, managing just three hits, two singles and a double. Strikeouts are a problem that has plagued Flowers since he started his professional career with the Braves. However, that relatively major flaw (career MiLB K rate of 24.5%) is masked by the fact that he walks enough (17.9%) to make up for it. Oh yeah, and the huge power.

It is worth noting, and worth a bit of fret on the part of White Sox fans, that his K rate has been over 30% in both AA and AAA. Ideally, that would be something that he'd be improving on instead of getting worse. The high strikeout rates should keep Flowers from ever hitting for great batting averages, but his approach could make him a catchers version of Adam Dunn, and that's not by any means a bad thing. One other red flag is that high K rates in the minors have a tendency to correlate with hitters who simply can't make the adjustment to Major League pitching. However, given that Flowers does draw a lot of walks, it seems to indicate that he's not suffering from an inability to determine what pitches are being thrown at him as much as he simply doesn't swing to make regular contact. He swings to make sure that if he hits the ball, it implodes.

On the receiving end, the reviews haven't been quite as glowing. It's not that he's terrible, but he hasn't thrown out runners at a consistently great clip (just 18% at AAA last year, and never above 40% in his Minor League career), and early career knee troubles have limited his time behind the plate leaving his other abilities a bit behind the rest of the catchers in this group. It's expected that the White Sox will be focusing heavily on his defense this year in hopes that he's prepared to take over when A.J. leaves. Should he not take the necessary steps however, the team will have to at least consider moving him to first base or DH, other areas where they either have, or are expected to have openings.

For the White Sox sake we obviously hope that isn't the case. Overall, Flowers isn't as well rounded perhaps as Avila is - he certainly doesn't have his defensive game - but he brings the thunder in a big, big way. Especially for a backstop. Either way, he'll likely be making his mark in a big, bad way against AL pitchers for years to come.