Adam Dunn: Mechanics, Age or a Little of Both?

I have somehow managed to avoid discussing Adam Dunn this season mostly because I usually like to talk about either positive things or at least somewhat intriguing negative things. Adam Dunn might come close to the latter but my “hunch” all season was that his issues this year have had mostly to do with a combination of bad luck and old age. I assumed early on that he would probably at least right his production enough to be considered a “productive” DH but at this point it is clear that ship has sailed.

Recently I encountered several intriguing pieces on Adam Dunn. The first, was Bradley Woodrum’s article entitled Adam Dunn Should Hit Better – But Not Much Better, which largely confirmed at least part of my first suspicion, that Dunn has been unlucky. Woodrum uses a predictive model entitled ShHAP which uses career BABIP and the players K, BB and HR rates to make predictions of expected player performance. Those of you who have read previous articles of mine know that I have done very similar analysis of other players. Seeing as how Woodrum’s work would likely completely mirror any work I could do on the subject, it suffices to say that I agree with Woodrum’s conclusion. Dunn has been unlucky to an extent but his drop in production has largely resulted from a dramatically increased K rate, lower BB rate, and lower HR rate on fly balls. Even with a luck adjustment Dunn would not be expected to be a serviceable DH.

Diminishing Skills

What has happened to one of the most productive and consistent power hitter over the last 6 years, Adam Dunn? Even if he was to double his first half production during the second half he would not touch his expected production. Many people have speculated, from everyday regular fans all the way to future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas, reasons why, from position switch to league switch to mechanical issues, but could diminishing skills be to blame?

In an earlier interview Dunn was quoted as saying “I would like to blame it on swinging at bad pitches, but I’m not doing that” at first glance that seems true; he is taking walks, with 46 so far this year. Unfortunately, the numbers tell a different story. Dunn has been swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone, in his career he has swung at pitches outside the strike zone at an average of 18.9%, this year though he has swung at 26.9% pitches outside of the strike zone. In addition, he is striking out at a 44% rate this year in comparison to a 33.4% rate for his career which indicates the 8% increase in pitches swung at outside the strike zone along with the 11% increase in strike outs would indicate he is not seeing the ball as well as he may think.

Tyler Flowers Gets The Call

Following the fastball that found Ramon Castro's throwing hand, resulting in him breaking that hand, I guessed that the White Sox would call up 25 year old prospect Tyler Flowers and indeed that is the case.

The right handed hitting Flowers who was acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade is an interesting prospect in many ways. A very big young man at 6'4" 240lbs, he's obviously rather over-sized for the position. For many years that size largely kept him from being an adequate defender, but the difference that I saw in him during spring training, coupled with what I've seen of him throughout this season have me believing that his defense has improved to the point where he could be adequate (but probably still a bit below average) on an every day basis.

Adam Dunn Has Appendectomy

It's been a big week for appendectomies in baseball as Cardinals left fielder Matt Holiday, and now White Sox designated hitter Adam Dunn have both undergone the procedure - which is always curiously referred to as an "emergency" surgery. Is there such a thing as a non-emergency appendectomy? 

Dunn was off to a great start for the White Sox, having gone 4-14 with a double, homerun, and four walks in his 19 plate appearances. He's expected to miss around five days but should be able to return after that. If so he'll miss tonight's final game against the Royals, followed by the teams three game set against the winless Rays, and perhaps one or more games of the Athletics series.

While Dunn will miss time, the team is unlikely to place him on the disabled list and will instead go with Mark Teahan as their primary designated hitter, though Lastings Milledge could see time against lefties as well. A move could always be made later to place him on the DL should he be unable to recover sooner.

White Sox Bring Back Paul Konerko

It had been apparent throughout the off season that the White Sox wanted to retain their free agent first baseman Paul Konerko. General Manager Kenny Williams wasn't shy about this, nor was team Owner and President Jerry Reinsdorf, with whom Konerko is said to share a very good relationship. Even so, everyone knew that payroll was going to be tight and that the team had other holes to fill. But today, with the other holes having been filled - notably at DH with the acquisition of Adam Dunn - the Sox resigned Konerko.

Good relationship with management and ownership aside, this wasn't an easy sign and Kenny himself said that this nearly didn't happen. Williams has put his club in a tough fiscal position with a number of expensive contracts on the books for a lot of questionable players, be it Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Mark Teahan, or until recently, Scott Linebrink. Even with back-loading the contracts recently given out to Dunn and AJ Pierzynski, non-tendering long-time closer Bobby Jenks, and trading off 2m of Linebrink's 2011 salary to the Braves - my payroll estimate still put the Sox at 112.2m - already a team record. So to bring back Konerko the team needed some help from ownership, and they obliged in the form of a three year, $37.5m deal that will pay Konerko 12m in 2011 and 2012, and 13.5m in 2013.

In Konerko, the White Sox have signed more than just a very good hitter, they secured a player who should wind up in their teams Hall-of-Fame after spending the past 11 seasons in white and black. Aside from that however, this is a risky signing. The Sox are now committed for the next three seasons to a player in Dunn who should be kept as far away from a defensive position as possible, and another in Konerko who has generally ranked around league average at first, but whom all three of the major advanced defensive metrics rated his 2010 very poorly. His +/- was -17, his defensive runs saved (DRS) was -18, and his UZR/150 was -14.7.

It's perfectly possible that this was an aberration - defensive metrics can be hit-and-miss sometimes - but it's equally possible that Konerko has begun that defensive slide that all players eventually do. Given that he was 34 last year, that would hardly be surprising. If so, the White Sox will be carrying two players who are both better suited for DH roles, and they'll be ding so for the next three years. That's not a particularly heart-warming prospect.

It's also unlikely that Konerko's offense of 2010 will be replicated. That's partly because he's past his prime, and partly because, well, he'd never been THAT good before. If Konerko hasn't found the fountain of youth as I expect, it's far more likely that he'll perform closer to his 2009 and 2007 seasons where he posted OPS marks of .841 and .842. If we assume that his defensive decline is a fluke and he continues to perform offensively at past levels, lets say an .850 OPS, that would make Konerko a consistent 2.5 WAR sort of player.

Of course, that assumes a lot of things that are, in general, really difficult to project for an aging player. That said, we have a lot of history to look at to suggest that Konerko should be capable, at least offensively, of providing consistent production for the life of his deal. So for 37.5m dollars, the White Sox have not only locked up a solid everyday bat, they've locked up someone who, along with starter Mark Buehrle, has been the face of the Franchise for the past decade. And yes (as much as it pains me to admit it), there is some value in that which can't be measured purely by a players production statistics.

Kenny Williams still has some work to do - namely, trying to figure out who the four guys in his bullpen not named Matt Thornton and Sergio Santos are going to be. But, with some considerable help from ownership, he's accomplished his biggest goal - fortifying his lineup and bringing back a fan favorite and White Sox icon.

White Sox Sign Adam Dunn

Kenny Williams strikes again. It has been common knowledge around the league that the White Sox have been in pursuit of Adam Dunn for some time and Kenny finally got his man. Williams has a way of making deals appear virtually out of thin air and this is no exception. While we all knew that Williams and the White Sox tried - and failed - to swing a deal with the Nationals for the slugger at the trade deadline last year, there had been little to no news on that front so far this off season. So when the news came that a deal was in place it surprised me a bit. Not because I didn't consider the possibility of Dunn coming to the Sox, but rather because it happened so fast.

When I ran down the payroll situation of the White Sox at the outset of this years off season, I knew Williams was going to have his hands full trying to improve his club enough to leapfrog the Twins while having little money to work. With and some tough positions to fill, even with the expected non-tendering of closer Bobby Jenks, money was still going to be tight. Thankfully, the deep pockets of owner Jerry Reinsdorf appear to be giving Williams a little extra wiggle room.

Payroll constraints not withstanding, one area that seemed almost certain to be addressed was designated hitter, where the White Sox received horrible production after a failed experiment at signing light hitting position players to man a position where hitting is the only job. 

By signing Dunn to a 4 year 56 million dollar deal the White Sox have ensured that they'll have one of the games pre-eminent power hitters in the middle of their lineup for years to come. Though, much like with the signing of Victor Martinez in Detroit, they'll be getting Dunn for the tail end of his prime and the beginning of his decline phase as he'll be 32 in 2011. Of course, all players age differently and there is nothing to say that Dunn wont produce the best numbers of his career while in Chicago. Dunn could provide a fantastic complement to the right handed Paul Konerko, should the White be able to bring him back (more on that later) - or anchor a lineup all on his own should a deal not be able to be worked out.

One of the most prolific home run hitters in the game today - and one of it's most prolific strikeout artists (32.8% for his career!) - Dunn is the definition of a all-or-nothing swinger. Of his 145 hits last year, 76 went for extra bases. Dunn is going to swing and miss a lot, that's just a fact of life, but when he doesn't miss, he has a tendency to hit the ball very, very hard. Of course, it's not just Dunn's power that makes him valuable, he's also one of the games best at taking a walk (I guess the thought of a strike being hit 450 feet will entice guys to nibble a bit more than normal). His power/on-base combination have made him one of the games best, and most consistent offensive forces as he has posted an OPS of .890 or better in six of the past seven seasons.

Of course, we also know that Dunn has his faults. There are the strikeouts of course, but there is plenty of debate as to just how much worse a strikeout is than another sort of out - or if it's worse at all. So I'll leave the relevance of that particular aspect of his game to your own judgment. Because of the strikeouts, Dunn isn't going to hit for average, but thankfully to say, he takes all those walks which still allows him to be an on-base machine. What isn't debatable is the fact that playing Dunn at any position is a serious hazard to health of your pitchers ERA's. After five straight seasons with a mind-boggling -23 UZR/150 (AT LEAST!!!) or worse at first base, Dunn showed some improvement during the past year, but it's likely that's just noise. And, in left field he's really no better.

He's so bad in fact that playing him in the field regularly forces him to lose a massive amount of his value. In 2009, for instance, despite posting a .928 OPS (good for a 4.1 oWAR according to Baseball-reference) was worth a -3.2 dWAR. So in the end, his value - at least according to WAR, was just barely above average. While that's an extreme example (his dWAR has never approached those numbers again) he's fairly consistently cost his team significantly on the field.

Thankfully to say, the White Sox play in the American League where they can bury his glove at DH. Initially Dunn had been hesitant to accept a role with a team that would use him as a designated hitter (probably because it lowers a players value as a free agent by a good amount), but it appears he's come around. If the White Sox can avoid deploying Dunn in their defensive rotation as much as possible, it's likely that he'll be worth a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR for at least the first 2-3 years of his contract. If so, this could be a brilliant deal for the White Sox. But if Ozzie Guillen should, for some reason, insist on playing Dunn in the field, this could just as easily become a disaster.

If we assume that Dunn can be worth at least 3.0 WAR per year, an easily attainable goal provided good health and minimal time playing defense, he'd be worth a minimum of around 51m. That's close enough to even money for a free agent signing for it to be considered a success. And really, 3.0 WAR as a DH is probably his downside. If he can produce the way he has throughout his career he should easily be worth more. At the likely rate of around 4.0 WAR, he'll be worth 68m - a number that would easily eclipse what the White Sox will be paying him.

If properly utilized, Dunn should provide a legitimate middle-of-the-order run-producing bat for the next four years who can help mash the White Sox back to the post season in homer-friendly US Cellular. He could also prove to be something even more rare - a free agent steal.