Friday, June 17, 2011
Joe Mauer Returns, Twins Outright Brian Dinkelman
While those two returned yesterday, the Twins will get their best player back today as Joe Mauer makes his much awaited return to the Twins lineup. Since leaving the team with what was initially diagnosed as bi-lateral leg weakness, a neurological condition in which weakness in the legs is caused by misfirings in the brain, spinal cord, or nerves - there has been a massive amount of hand wringing, speculation, and misinformation - and a notable lack of information coming from either the organization or Mauer himself. Whatever the problems Mauer was having were, they were most certainly exacerbated by a prolonged bout with the flu which left Mauer (along with other members of the team) hospitalized and taking fluids.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Max Ramirez Released
Though his defense was roundly regarded as poor, with an arm and release that both graded out as below average along with poor defensive instincts, he continued to be a desirable commodity. This off season after being placed on waivers by Rangers he was picked up by the Red Sox (who now sport another once highly regarded Texas catching prospect behind the plate), waived again, and picked up by the Cubs. Now, he's been released.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Twins Power Outage
The Twins slow start is among the more surprising storylines to the start of the season. This is a club that has won the AL Central six times in the last ten years and never finished lower than third place (2005 and 2007) during that same period. To put it mildly, the Twins have been about as wildly successful as any club can be (excluding the post season). However, the Twins find themselves in an unusual position, last place.
It is still very early in the season, so normally I would feel it is too early to panic. On the other hand, everything seems to be going wrong for the club. Franchise player, superstar catcher Joe Mauer is on the disabled list with “leg weakness”, an absolutely terrifying “condition” given he had knee surgery in the offseason and is signed to a hefty 184 million dollar deal that runs until 2018. Francisco Liriano is having a completely perplexing year pitching with 18 strike outs to 18 walks, 4 home runs and a downright awful ERA of 9.13. Finally Justin Morneau has started very slowly in April after having serious problems with a concussion last season. It just seems like a year where everything that can go wrong will go wrong for this organization.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Joe Mauer Headed To DL
When asked about the abscence during pregame interviews Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire would only say that Mauer was, "sore," and declined to offer any other details beyond that, saying only that they'd, "re-evaluate him tomorrow."
As it turns out, it wouldn't take that that long.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Twins Trade Jose Morales
In a move that got little attention, the Twins traded backup catcher Jose Morales to the Rockies for Paul Bargas. A converted catcher, Morales has had some success with that bat at the Major League level, posting a .297/.370/.354 triple slash in 181 plate appearances spread out over three seasons. Unfortunately, injuries have kept Morales from being able to establish himself as the Twins primary backup and the Twins chose to go with Drew Butera as their primary backup to Joe Mauer last year.
With Morales out of options and without room to carry three catchers to open the season, the Twins were in a move-him-or-lose him position and so the move was made. In return, the Twins get Bargas. As a 22 year old Bargas had a strong season for the Rockies class-A affiliate, posting a 3.59 ERA and a 2.82 FIP with solid strikeout (8.51) and walk rates (2.53).
The Twins like strike throwers and Bargas seems to fit that profile. With repeatable mechanics, Bargas works in 88-90 range with decent sink on his fastball and a slider in the high 70s that Baseball America says breaks too early to profile as a put-away pitch at higher levels. His stuff seems to profile more like that of a LOOGY than a long-term rotation option, and that's what I project him as. But the metrics still like him and if he can make progress with his slider and develop his changeup - two things the Twins minor league coaches are known for doing well - he could have Brian Duensing-like upside.
In all likelihood the Twins will have Bargas open 2011 at AA New Britain and we'll get a chance to see how his stuff translates against more advanced hitters.
What this means for the Twins immediate catching situation is a bit unclear. Obviously they made a strong commitment to Butera in 2010 and they love his defense, but beyond Butera, the options are thin. The Twins did make a pair of minor league signings, bringing in Steve Holm and Rene Rivera, but neither have ever hit and in the event that Mauer were to get hurt, the Twins would have a gaping hole in their batting order that couldn't begin to be dented with the current group of internal options.
But hey, at least the Twins didn't make a heinous decision to trade Wilson Ramos for a reliever so they can always turn to him...
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Russell Martin as a Potential Catching Option For AL Central Teams?
Since then, Santana has graduated to the Majors and made an impressive debut by posting a .868 OPS despite a poor BABIP before succumbing to a nasty injury that required surgery. Twins top-prospect Wilson Ramos was dealt to the Nationals where he's provided decent production in limited work.
The other two players, Alex Avila and Tyler Flowers have struggled to varying degrees. Avila has an OPS of just .654 , despite a much improved LD rate with consistent K and BB rates. Flowers has a more respectable .768 OPS in AAA, but that came replete with a 35% K rate that simply wont come anywhere close to cutting it in the Majors.
Of course, we also have to consider the emergence of Wil Myers in Kansas City as one of the better prospects in the game. He's still a few years away however and there are persistent questions as to whether he can stick behind the plate. But we've talked about him recently.
The more immediate catching concerns are with the White Sox and Tigers franchises. Two teams who are already competitive but who could use upgrades at catcher.
The White Sox at one point early in the year were tasked with the difficult decision of whether to deal starting catcher AJ Pierzynski as the team was floundering heading into June. They didn't and went on to post rattle off an impressive run to take the lead in the division. But with the Sox now officially eliminated, and Pierzynski headed toward free agency, attention must be drawn to the future of the position.
Flowers is an option, but his peripherals make him unlikely to succeed at the Majors offensively, while his defensive shortcomings don't seem to have improved by a considerable margin during his time at AAA this season. Unfortunately, he's the only realistic option in the system. Josh Phegley has been decent, but he also has just 72 at-bats at AA and has the same strikeout issues that plague Flowers, with significantly less power.
The Tigers are in a somewhat better position. While presumptive starter Gerald Laird has had two incredibly disappointing seasons in a row, and it appears he'll fail to crack the .600 mark for OPS this year. Yikes. Avila has been better (which isn't exactly saying much) but his season as a whole has still be a disappointment.
So given their proximity to competing, combined with the poor performance the two teams have received from the catchers position, it's not exactly a stretch to assume the teams will be looking to bolster their offense here. With what is shaping up as a poor catching crop in free agency - perhaps led by John Buck off a career year - I'm guessing GMs Kenny Williams and Dave Dombrowski will be scouring other teams rosters to see if they can find an upgrade.
One possible answer could be Russell Martin.
Martin came onto the scene back in 2006 by hitting .282 with a .792 OPS and 10 home runs as a 23 year old rookie. He backed up that performance by posting a .843 OPS in 2007 and a .781 in 2008.
Since then however, Martin's production has fallen off sharply and someone who was once viewed as one of the best young catchers in the game - compared favorably by many in the media to Joe Mauer - has seen his stock drop rapidly as his .680 OPS in 2009 and his .679 mark with 10 games remaining this season are well below average, even by catching standards.
Martin's offensive decline, combined with the fact that he'll be entering his final year of arbitration - where he'll be due for a raise on his 5.05m salary - and the Dodgers precarious ownership/payroll situation have conspired to make what once would've been almost unthinkable, a non-tender, perhaps likely.
The Dodgers are in a position where they're likely going to be forced to trade someone to make payroll for 2011. The most widely speculated names have been those of Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp. Two players who have also been disappointing to some degree, but who are also likely to fetch more in return.
However, it's also possible that they simply non-tender Martin this winter, making him a free agent. The other possibility would be a trade. The Dodgers could try and unload Martin (and the salary he'll make in 2011) for likely little more than minor league filler.
In either case, Martin could make sense for the Tigers or White Sox. Despite Martin's relatively poor performance, he's still been a fair margin better than any of their incumbent options appear to be. He also comes with something you won't find amongst the rest of the free agenct crop.
Upside.
While Martin's production stats have seen sharp declines the past couple years, I still see a lot to like.
Consider, when Martin experienced his most success during his first three seasons, he posted the following marks:
BB Rate (2006/2007/2008):
9.6% - 10.8% - 13.8%
K Rate:
13.7% - 16.5% - 15.0%
LD Rate:
19.9% - 17.5% - 19.4%
And now the marks for the past two seasons:
BB Rate (2009/2010):
11.7% - 12.4%
K Rate:
15.8% - 18.4%
LD Rate:
20.5% - 20.6%
As you can see, the rate stats really haven't changed much at all. Fundamentally, Martin remains the same hitter, posting above average strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. Another important rate, ground ball rate, remains unchanged as well. There is little reason that performance metrics that for three years supported solid production should suddenly be so incapable of doing so in the future.
The ground ball rate, it should be mentioned is the only real concern. It's always been consistent, and bad. Between 48.4% and 51.1% every year of his career. The obvious concern with ground ball hitters from a sabermetric point of view is that they rarely turn into extra base hits. They also tend to hold down a players BABIP if they have poor speed. However, Martin has never had exceptionally poor foot speed. He's actually quite a bit above average as catchers go.
I don't think Martin can replicate the successes he had when he broke into the league, but he should still be capable of providing league average offense and above average defense. To that end, even as he's posted poor offensive showings the past two years, he's posted WAR marks of 2.2 and 2.1 in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
With the Tigers set to shed Laird's 3.9m contract, and the White Sox dropping Pierzynski's 6.25m - there should be payroll available for both teams to pursue Martin via free agency or a trade, should they prefer to do so.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Twins Notes
That's unfortunate for the Twins. So is this...
The Twins will likely be Mauerless in Minnesota for at least the next few games after Joe Mauer strained his knee. Thankfully for the Twins this seems like a minimal issue. They're going to simply give Mauer all the time he needs to rest. Of course, this makes last weeks sweep in Chicago all the more important as it affords the team the luxury of playing this as safe as they like.
Should make for some interesting lineups however with center fielder Denard Span battling a hurt shoulder, and regular DH Jason Kubel out with a sore wrist. The Twins will be without their opening day leadoff man, #3/4/5 hitters. Can anyone imagine the outcry if the Yankees were without Jeter, Tiexiera, A-Rod, and Posada? Oh the humanity!
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Mauer Out, Twins fly out Wilson Ramos
Now it appears that they might have an issue with MVP catcher Joe Mauer. According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, Mauer will miss tonight's game because of a heel injury suffered while running through first base in last nights 9-3 win over the Indians. The injury certainly doesn't sound severe, but apparently it's got the team concerned.
As a precaution they have brought top prospect Wilson Ramos up from AAA to Cleveland. While Ramos has yet to be officially added to the roster, the Twins could make room for him by optioning tonight's starter, Jeff Manship, back to AAA after his start tonight.
For now, Drew Butera will make the start in Mauer's place and the Twins will then have four days to evaluate Joe and make a decision on whether they need to send him to the disabled list and keep Ramos long-term.
Ramos had a very good spring training, but was beaten out by Butera because the Twins wanted to have Ramos play every day and probably at least partially because they wanted to push back his arbitration clock. But the Twins may have been on to something too, because for as much as he succeeded in spring training, he has struggled mightily in AAA. With three home runs the power is encouraging, but with 15 strikeouts and just three walks in 67 plate appearances, his discipline has been questionable.
In all likelihood, Ramos isn't quite ready for this level, and without a proven veteran behind the plate, the Twins would be hard-pressed should Mauer miss any extended amount of time.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Up and Coming Catchers, Pt. 3
The Twins are blessed with a pretty good catcher already, you might have heard of him, he's the reigning AL MVP and just came off an absurdly good season where he hit .365 with 28 home runs and won a Gold Glove. The fact that they have ultra toolsy prospect Wilson Ramos nipping at his heels at a position where most teams can't find one good catcher almost seems unfair.
Behind the plate Ramos boasts a strong arm, consistently throwing out over 40% of runners throughout his minor league career. Though during spring training Twins coaches noted that they'd like to have the youngster work on his overall receiving skills. That's not terribly surprising given Ramos' age, he's just 22, but Gardenhire has also praised his strong work ethic and ability to make corrections on the fly.
Offensively Ramos' ceiling is much higher than his minor league track record might suggest. Ramos has consistently hit for solid average, posting a .317 mark last year at AA (as a 21 year old) with a career .294 average. While his power hasn't really manifested itself yet - his ISO last year was just .137 - everyone is in agreement that he can hit the ball a long ways. To that end, he's impressed the organization this spring by hitting .400 in 30 at-bats with four doubles (two off the very top of the wall) and two annihilated home runs, the last of which was hit well OVER the batters eye at the Twins spring training facility in Ft. Myers.
If his arm and his power are his two greatest strengths, Ramos still has some holes to his game. Besides needing to improve some facets of his defensive game, he also struggles as most kids his age do, with command of the strike zone. While Ramos took a major leap forward last year by slashing his K rate in half from the year before, and all the way down to a very good 11.2%, his walk rate also tumbled to a nearly non-existent 2.8%. While the low walk rate wont keep him from being a very good Major Leaguer as long as his average continues to stay where it is and he can develop his power some more, it can't hurt. He's also not the fleetest of foot, though that's hardly uncommon at the position.
Ramos' spring had Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire pleading with GM Bill Smith to let him take the kid north. Smith wisely declined, likely realizing that he still needed plenty of work at AAA to polish off his game. As it stands the Twins will open the season with Drew Butera as Mauer's backup until Mauer's regular caddy, Jose Morales (another solid young catcher for the Twins) returns from off-season wrist surgery. Morales should be back by the time the calendar turns over at the end of April.
The problem for the Twins - if this can really be described as a problem - is that they don't really have anywhere to put Ramos once he is ready. They're pretty set at catcher with Mauer who just re-upped for another eight years in his hometown, and they have a pretty good first baseman as well in Justin Morneau, and at DH they have Jason Kubel. All three are very good hitters who have long-term contracts.
So the question Twins fans are asking is, "where does Ramos fit in?" It's a tough question. Clearly there is no spot for him right now, and despite the main stream media pushing the 'move Mauer to a different position,' meme, there are few ideas that could be more absurd than that, and the Twins front office agrees. Mauer isn't moving anywhere for a long time.
So with the Twins roster as currently constructed, one must believe that a trade will eventually happen. But when and to where and for what kind of return? I can't say for certain where, but generally speaking, players of Ramos' caliber are the kind that can headline all-star trades. There has been some speculation that the Twins might trade him for a closer - Heath Bell is the most common name bandied about - but I believe the Twins would be foolish to trade a prospect of Ramos' caliber for just a closer.