This even the Minnesota Twins announced that they and starting pitcher (for the time being) Kevin Slowey have agreed on a one year deal, avoiding arbitration in his first year of eligibility. With Slowey seeking 3.1m in arbitration and the Twins offering 2.3, they met in the middle and agreed on a 2.7m pact that comes in 200k above my 2.5m estimate.
Showing posts with label Brian Duensing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brian Duensing. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Twins Trade Jose Morales
I kept meaning to write this piece and just never did, so now, two months later you're finally getting it.
In a move that got little attention, the Twins traded backup catcher Jose Morales to the Rockies for Paul Bargas. A converted catcher, Morales has had some success with that bat at the Major League level, posting a .297/.370/.354 triple slash in 181 plate appearances spread out over three seasons. Unfortunately, injuries have kept Morales from being able to establish himself as the Twins primary backup and the Twins chose to go with Drew Butera as their primary backup to Joe Mauer last year.
With Morales out of options and without room to carry three catchers to open the season, the Twins were in a move-him-or-lose him position and so the move was made. In return, the Twins get Bargas. As a 22 year old Bargas had a strong season for the Rockies class-A affiliate, posting a 3.59 ERA and a 2.82 FIP with solid strikeout (8.51) and walk rates (2.53).
The Twins like strike throwers and Bargas seems to fit that profile. With repeatable mechanics, Bargas works in 88-90 range with decent sink on his fastball and a slider in the high 70s that Baseball America says breaks too early to profile as a put-away pitch at higher levels. His stuff seems to profile more like that of a LOOGY than a long-term rotation option, and that's what I project him as. But the metrics still like him and if he can make progress with his slider and develop his changeup - two things the Twins minor league coaches are known for doing well - he could have Brian Duensing-like upside.
In all likelihood the Twins will have Bargas open 2011 at AA New Britain and we'll get a chance to see how his stuff translates against more advanced hitters.
What this means for the Twins immediate catching situation is a bit unclear. Obviously they made a strong commitment to Butera in 2010 and they love his defense, but beyond Butera, the options are thin. The Twins did make a pair of minor league signings, bringing in Steve Holm and Rene Rivera, but neither have ever hit and in the event that Mauer were to get hurt, the Twins would have a gaping hole in their batting order that couldn't begin to be dented with the current group of internal options.
But hey, at least the Twins didn't make a heinous decision to trade Wilson Ramos for a reliever so they can always turn to him...
In a move that got little attention, the Twins traded backup catcher Jose Morales to the Rockies for Paul Bargas. A converted catcher, Morales has had some success with that bat at the Major League level, posting a .297/.370/.354 triple slash in 181 plate appearances spread out over three seasons. Unfortunately, injuries have kept Morales from being able to establish himself as the Twins primary backup and the Twins chose to go with Drew Butera as their primary backup to Joe Mauer last year.
With Morales out of options and without room to carry three catchers to open the season, the Twins were in a move-him-or-lose him position and so the move was made. In return, the Twins get Bargas. As a 22 year old Bargas had a strong season for the Rockies class-A affiliate, posting a 3.59 ERA and a 2.82 FIP with solid strikeout (8.51) and walk rates (2.53).
The Twins like strike throwers and Bargas seems to fit that profile. With repeatable mechanics, Bargas works in 88-90 range with decent sink on his fastball and a slider in the high 70s that Baseball America says breaks too early to profile as a put-away pitch at higher levels. His stuff seems to profile more like that of a LOOGY than a long-term rotation option, and that's what I project him as. But the metrics still like him and if he can make progress with his slider and develop his changeup - two things the Twins minor league coaches are known for doing well - he could have Brian Duensing-like upside.
In all likelihood the Twins will have Bargas open 2011 at AA New Britain and we'll get a chance to see how his stuff translates against more advanced hitters.
What this means for the Twins immediate catching situation is a bit unclear. Obviously they made a strong commitment to Butera in 2010 and they love his defense, but beyond Butera, the options are thin. The Twins did make a pair of minor league signings, bringing in Steve Holm and Rene Rivera, but neither have ever hit and in the event that Mauer were to get hurt, the Twins would have a gaping hole in their batting order that couldn't begin to be dented with the current group of internal options.
But hey, at least the Twins didn't make a heinous decision to trade Wilson Ramos for a reliever so they can always turn to him...
Monday, December 20, 2010
The Case Against Carl Pavano
Baseball has been an interesting journey for Carl Pavano.
After a phenomenal 2004 season where he posted a 3.00 ERA for the Marlins, the Yankees signed him to one of the most maligned contracts in baseball history. A four year, forty million dollar deal (39.75m technically) that imploded in epic fashion as Pavano struggled through every legitimate injury imaginable, and others - bruised buttocks? - not so imaginable. In total, Pavano would make just 26 starts for the Yankees.
His next contract, a one year 1.5m dollar deal with incentives from the Indians would not prove to be so significant. But it was during this time that Pavano finally managed to re-establish himself as a solid starting pitching option. The Indians of course traded Pavano to the Twins after the 2009 trade deadline in a minor deal for Yohan Pino. Pavano went on to pitch brilliantly down the stretch for the Twins that year as they overcame the Tigers in an epic 163rd game. He also made two solid playoff appearances, but wasn't able to prevent the Twins from being swept out of the first round by his former team two years in a row.
Now, after throwing 221 innings while registering a 3.75 ERA, Pavano finds himself perhaps the most sought-after free agent starting pitcher with Cliff Lee off the table. He's in line for a multi-year deal worth at least 10m per season. But just how much is Pavano worth, and is he worth the risk?
To figure that out, we first need to figure out exactly what type of pitcher Carl Pavano is, and how he projects going forward. I think the simplest way of putting it would be to say he's an innings-eater. His journey through the Yankees minefield aside, Pavano has registered at least 199 innings in his four healthy seasons. He logs those innings without particularly dominant stuff: a fastball that averaged 90.1mph, slider and changeup, and a strikeout rate of just 5.72 for his career. A rate that dropped to a career low 4.76 last year.
What Pavano lacks in ability to miss bats, he helps to make up for in control. With a very good career walk rate of 2.26, his 1.51 mark in 2010 helped to offset the loss in ability to strike batters out and ensured that even with such a miniscule strikeout rate, he still managed to post a 3.16 K/BB ratio. Pavano pairs his low walk/low strikeout combination with solid ground ball rates which, like his walk rate, reached a career best mark of 51.2% in 2010.
While the metrics have changed a little bit, with both the strikeout and walk rates coming down a little from his time with the Marlins and Expos, Pavano essentially remains the same pitcher he was at the start of the decade. He came out throwing in the low 90s (90.7 his first two years), and his career 5.72K / 2.26BB / and 46% GB rates are reasonably similar to what you saw in his 2010 campaign.
The problem is that with the exception of his 2004 and 2010 seasons (coincidentally both walk years) that combination has never really produced particularly impressive results. His 2010 ERA was largely the result of a somewhat beneficial .286 BABIP and a career best 74% LOB rate (along with the career best walk and ground ball rates). Like most pitchers who pitch long enough, his career ERA (4.34) and FIP/xFIP marks (4.15/4.11) match up nicely, and both suggest that Pavano is what we thought he was. A mediocre innings eater.
He's not an ace. He's not a number two.
He's more of a #3 who can be relied on to chew up innings.
Most speculation suggests that Pavano is aiming for a three-year deal that would average something in the neighborhood of 12m per season. Similarly, there is a lot of speculation that the teams interested don't want to go beyond two years. In all likelihood, a team that showed a willingness to go to three years would claim Pavano rather quickly, and I'm guessing that's what he's holding out for.
And so we wind up back at our original question, what is Carl Pavano worth?
On a pure WAR level, his average of around 3.7 WAR during his last four healthy seasons suggests he's certainly worth the 12.0m he's seeking on a per annum basis, and his track record (Yankees saga aside) suggests he's worth that.
Of course, looking strictly at WAR levels can be deceiving. What teams really look at is replacement value - "how much better is player B compared to player A who is already on my team)".
In the Twins case, the most likely player to be replaced would be Kevin Slowey. Slowey is a capable pitcher (6.86K/1.50BB - 31.6%GB) in his own right, though he suffers from being one of the most fly-ball prone pitchers in the league. He also struggles to pitch deep into games, but still managed to log 155 innings in just 28 starts, not a terrible mark, but still almost 70 fewer innings than Pavano logged last year.
With a depleted bullpen, those extra 50-70 innings that Pavano could provide become more significant, as it essentially removes an entire reliever from the equation. In the Twins case, a reliever that's likely to trend toward replacement level.
Replacing Slowey with Pavano will, without a doubt, make the Twins better. It may also help offset some of the cost of Pavano if the Twins were to subsequently trade Slowey and the 2.5m I expect him to get in arbitration. Or perhaps the Twins could look to move Brian Duensing back to the bullpen, and bolster a group left with little beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. They've got some options.
The flip side of course is that Pavano will almost certainly not be as good in 2011 as he was in 2010. His peripherals don't support such sustained success and therefor, you ultimately end up paying an extra 8-10m (the approximate difference between Slowey's 2.5m and Pavano's 10-12m) for an extra 50-70 innings of work from your rotation.
What if, instead of investing 12m into Pavano for 2010, the Twins were to instead spend 8m on a pair of free agent relievers by bringing back Jon Rauch and bringing in Arthur Rhodes? That pair would give manager Ron Gardenhire five options out of his bullpen ranging from decent (Jose Mijares) to amazing (Nathan) - and overall, provide the Twins with approximately 100 innings of work that's likely to be as good, or better, than what they'd get from Pavano.
As with any player move there are dozens of factors that need to be considered. But it's my opinion that the Twins could spend 10-12m in ways that would make more sense than making a marginal improvement at starting pitcher.
After a phenomenal 2004 season where he posted a 3.00 ERA for the Marlins, the Yankees signed him to one of the most maligned contracts in baseball history. A four year, forty million dollar deal (39.75m technically) that imploded in epic fashion as Pavano struggled through every legitimate injury imaginable, and others - bruised buttocks? - not so imaginable. In total, Pavano would make just 26 starts for the Yankees.
His next contract, a one year 1.5m dollar deal with incentives from the Indians would not prove to be so significant. But it was during this time that Pavano finally managed to re-establish himself as a solid starting pitching option. The Indians of course traded Pavano to the Twins after the 2009 trade deadline in a minor deal for Yohan Pino. Pavano went on to pitch brilliantly down the stretch for the Twins that year as they overcame the Tigers in an epic 163rd game. He also made two solid playoff appearances, but wasn't able to prevent the Twins from being swept out of the first round by his former team two years in a row.
Now, after throwing 221 innings while registering a 3.75 ERA, Pavano finds himself perhaps the most sought-after free agent starting pitcher with Cliff Lee off the table. He's in line for a multi-year deal worth at least 10m per season. But just how much is Pavano worth, and is he worth the risk?
To figure that out, we first need to figure out exactly what type of pitcher Carl Pavano is, and how he projects going forward. I think the simplest way of putting it would be to say he's an innings-eater. His journey through the Yankees minefield aside, Pavano has registered at least 199 innings in his four healthy seasons. He logs those innings without particularly dominant stuff: a fastball that averaged 90.1mph, slider and changeup, and a strikeout rate of just 5.72 for his career. A rate that dropped to a career low 4.76 last year.
What Pavano lacks in ability to miss bats, he helps to make up for in control. With a very good career walk rate of 2.26, his 1.51 mark in 2010 helped to offset the loss in ability to strike batters out and ensured that even with such a miniscule strikeout rate, he still managed to post a 3.16 K/BB ratio. Pavano pairs his low walk/low strikeout combination with solid ground ball rates which, like his walk rate, reached a career best mark of 51.2% in 2010.
While the metrics have changed a little bit, with both the strikeout and walk rates coming down a little from his time with the Marlins and Expos, Pavano essentially remains the same pitcher he was at the start of the decade. He came out throwing in the low 90s (90.7 his first two years), and his career 5.72K / 2.26BB / and 46% GB rates are reasonably similar to what you saw in his 2010 campaign.
The problem is that with the exception of his 2004 and 2010 seasons (coincidentally both walk years) that combination has never really produced particularly impressive results. His 2010 ERA was largely the result of a somewhat beneficial .286 BABIP and a career best 74% LOB rate (along with the career best walk and ground ball rates). Like most pitchers who pitch long enough, his career ERA (4.34) and FIP/xFIP marks (4.15/4.11) match up nicely, and both suggest that Pavano is what we thought he was. A mediocre innings eater.
He's not an ace. He's not a number two.
He's more of a #3 who can be relied on to chew up innings.
Most speculation suggests that Pavano is aiming for a three-year deal that would average something in the neighborhood of 12m per season. Similarly, there is a lot of speculation that the teams interested don't want to go beyond two years. In all likelihood, a team that showed a willingness to go to three years would claim Pavano rather quickly, and I'm guessing that's what he's holding out for.
And so we wind up back at our original question, what is Carl Pavano worth?
On a pure WAR level, his average of around 3.7 WAR during his last four healthy seasons suggests he's certainly worth the 12.0m he's seeking on a per annum basis, and his track record (Yankees saga aside) suggests he's worth that.
Of course, looking strictly at WAR levels can be deceiving. What teams really look at is replacement value - "how much better is player B compared to player A who is already on my team)".
In the Twins case, the most likely player to be replaced would be Kevin Slowey. Slowey is a capable pitcher (6.86K/1.50BB - 31.6%GB) in his own right, though he suffers from being one of the most fly-ball prone pitchers in the league. He also struggles to pitch deep into games, but still managed to log 155 innings in just 28 starts, not a terrible mark, but still almost 70 fewer innings than Pavano logged last year.
With a depleted bullpen, those extra 50-70 innings that Pavano could provide become more significant, as it essentially removes an entire reliever from the equation. In the Twins case, a reliever that's likely to trend toward replacement level.
Replacing Slowey with Pavano will, without a doubt, make the Twins better. It may also help offset some of the cost of Pavano if the Twins were to subsequently trade Slowey and the 2.5m I expect him to get in arbitration. Or perhaps the Twins could look to move Brian Duensing back to the bullpen, and bolster a group left with little beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Capps. They've got some options.
The flip side of course is that Pavano will almost certainly not be as good in 2011 as he was in 2010. His peripherals don't support such sustained success and therefor, you ultimately end up paying an extra 8-10m (the approximate difference between Slowey's 2.5m and Pavano's 10-12m) for an extra 50-70 innings of work from your rotation.
What if, instead of investing 12m into Pavano for 2010, the Twins were to instead spend 8m on a pair of free agent relievers by bringing back Jon Rauch and bringing in Arthur Rhodes? That pair would give manager Ron Gardenhire five options out of his bullpen ranging from decent (Jose Mijares) to amazing (Nathan) - and overall, provide the Twins with approximately 100 innings of work that's likely to be as good, or better, than what they'd get from Pavano.
As with any player move there are dozens of factors that need to be considered. But it's my opinion that the Twins could spend 10-12m in ways that would make more sense than making a marginal improvement at starting pitcher.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Nick Blackburn Lit Up Again
Nick Blackburn is of to the worst start of his career - a career control and ground ball pitcher who allowed six home runs and six walks in his first three games. After his last start, a five inning, five run, two home run allowed effort that Blackburn was forced out of after just 69 pitches due to elbow pain, the Twins gave him an extra day off.
Apparently the extra rest didn't help as Blackburn came out against the Royals with decreased velocity, and no breaking ball to speak of at all. He left his start today after just four and a third innings, having allowed 10 hits - five for extra bases - and two more walks.
After the game, Manager Ron Gardenhire was adamant that Blackburn's elbow wasn't bothering him and that he 'just didn't have it tonight.' Yeah, right. At this point it isn't a question of whether or not Blackburn is going to wind up on the disabled list, it's just an issue of how long the Twins will wait before having the MRI and sitting him down.
If I'm right on this, and I really think I will be, that means the Twins would likely promote reliever Brian Duensing to the rotation, who did a great job in a starters role late in the season last year. The next question becomes who takes his place on the active roster. Glen Perkins?
Perkins of course had an off season flap with the Twins when he filed a grievance against the team claiming he was sent down to prevent him from gaining service time. The grievance was eventually retracted, but the damage was done. There were a lot of reports during the off season about the Twins trying to move Perkins, but they could find no takers.
Since then, Perkins has done nothing to help his cause. At 27, Perkins needs somewhere to pitch because he isn't getting any younger, and given the Twins depth at starter, it isn't likely to be with them. But after a miserable spring training and a terrible start to his season at AAA, he's not giving another team any reason to want him.
When Blackburn eventually ends up on the DL, this could be his last chance to stick as a Major Leaguer.
The Twins do have other options though, and probably better options in either Jeff Manship or Anthony Swarzak. It'll be interesting to see how the Twins play it.
Apparently the extra rest didn't help as Blackburn came out against the Royals with decreased velocity, and no breaking ball to speak of at all. He left his start today after just four and a third innings, having allowed 10 hits - five for extra bases - and two more walks.
After the game, Manager Ron Gardenhire was adamant that Blackburn's elbow wasn't bothering him and that he 'just didn't have it tonight.' Yeah, right. At this point it isn't a question of whether or not Blackburn is going to wind up on the disabled list, it's just an issue of how long the Twins will wait before having the MRI and sitting him down.
If I'm right on this, and I really think I will be, that means the Twins would likely promote reliever Brian Duensing to the rotation, who did a great job in a starters role late in the season last year. The next question becomes who takes his place on the active roster. Glen Perkins?
Perkins of course had an off season flap with the Twins when he filed a grievance against the team claiming he was sent down to prevent him from gaining service time. The grievance was eventually retracted, but the damage was done. There were a lot of reports during the off season about the Twins trying to move Perkins, but they could find no takers.
Since then, Perkins has done nothing to help his cause. At 27, Perkins needs somewhere to pitch because he isn't getting any younger, and given the Twins depth at starter, it isn't likely to be with them. But after a miserable spring training and a terrible start to his season at AAA, he's not giving another team any reason to want him.
When Blackburn eventually ends up on the DL, this could be his last chance to stick as a Major Leaguer.
The Twins do have other options though, and probably better options in either Jeff Manship or Anthony Swarzak. It'll be interesting to see how the Twins play it.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Nick Blackburn Dealing With Shoulder Pain
After exiting yesterday's 6-5 Twins win in the 5th inning with the score tied and just 76 pitches thrown, Twins starter Nick Blackburn told pitching coach Rick Anderson that his shoulder was hurting too much to go out again. Blackburn missed time this spring with knee soreness issues that he's been battling for the past couple seasons.
The Twins faced a litany of injuries to their starting staff in 2009 with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Francisco Liriano all missing a fair number of starts. Losing Blackburn who has been a rotation stalwart would certainly hurt. While the Twins could move Brian Duensing into the rotation if Blackburn indeed did need a trip to the DL, it would further exaserbate the issues their bullpen is currently facing.
Just today the Twins officially placed Jose Mijares on the 15 day disabled list where he'll join Clay Condrey and Joe Nathan. Pat Neshek could be headed there soon as well if the cortisone shot he received can't stop the pain in his middle finger. The Twins played with just five relievers today, but rookie Alex Burnett should be up by today to add depth. Burnett was demoted just a couple days ago after a pair of strong outings.
According to Star Tribune reporter Kelsie Smith;
"The starter said he deals with this particular shoulder pain often, that it comes and goes and that team doctors told him it is not concerning."
I've certainly never heard of it, and I don't recall it ever knocking him out of a game in the past. So saying that he deals with it all the time strikes me as disingenuous at best. Clearly this is something beyond the norm and could account for why Blackburn, a ground ball pitcher throughout his career has already given up six home runs in just three outings.
It's not quite time to push the panic button in Minnesota yet, but if Blackburn misses any serious amount of time, it might be. They're certainly having their depth tested early.
The Twins faced a litany of injuries to their starting staff in 2009 with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Francisco Liriano all missing a fair number of starts. Losing Blackburn who has been a rotation stalwart would certainly hurt. While the Twins could move Brian Duensing into the rotation if Blackburn indeed did need a trip to the DL, it would further exaserbate the issues their bullpen is currently facing.
Just today the Twins officially placed Jose Mijares on the 15 day disabled list where he'll join Clay Condrey and Joe Nathan. Pat Neshek could be headed there soon as well if the cortisone shot he received can't stop the pain in his middle finger. The Twins played with just five relievers today, but rookie Alex Burnett should be up by today to add depth. Burnett was demoted just a couple days ago after a pair of strong outings.
According to Star Tribune reporter Kelsie Smith;
"The starter said he deals with this particular shoulder pain often, that it comes and goes and that team doctors told him it is not concerning."
I've certainly never heard of it, and I don't recall it ever knocking him out of a game in the past. So saying that he deals with it all the time strikes me as disingenuous at best. Clearly this is something beyond the norm and could account for why Blackburn, a ground ball pitcher throughout his career has already given up six home runs in just three outings.
It's not quite time to push the panic button in Minnesota yet, but if Blackburn misses any serious amount of time, it might be. They're certainly having their depth tested early.
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