When the Twins decided to demote Trevor Plouffe earlier this season I, along with quite a few others in the blogosphere thought the move was a poor one. Plouffe was hardly an elite prospect entering the 2011 season, but his status as a former first round pick gave some credence to his scorching hot start for the Twins AAA affiliate.
Sadly the Twins decided to send Plouffe back to AAA despite him showing some glipses of his phenomenal power by hitting three home runs and five total extra base hits in his first 72 Major League plate appearances. The decision was made after Manager Ron Gardenhire repeatedly blasted the young infielder to the media following series of errors.
Showing posts with label Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Show all posts
Friday, July 15, 2011
Friday, June 17, 2011
Joe Mauer Returns, Twins Outright Brian Dinkelman
It's been a long season for the Minnesota Twins, who've suffered through injuries to essentially every key member of their team - and ineffectiveness even when healthy. But with the return of second baseman/shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and reliever Glen Perkins yesterday, the team put itself on a path to health that should continue for the next couple of weeks.
While those two returned yesterday, the Twins will get their best player back today as Joe Mauer makes his much awaited return to the Twins lineup. Since leaving the team with what was initially diagnosed as bi-lateral leg weakness, a neurological condition in which weakness in the legs is caused by misfirings in the brain, spinal cord, or nerves - there has been a massive amount of hand wringing, speculation, and misinformation - and a notable lack of information coming from either the organization or Mauer himself. Whatever the problems Mauer was having were, they were most certainly exacerbated by a prolonged bout with the flu which left Mauer (along with other members of the team) hospitalized and taking fluids.
While those two returned yesterday, the Twins will get their best player back today as Joe Mauer makes his much awaited return to the Twins lineup. Since leaving the team with what was initially diagnosed as bi-lateral leg weakness, a neurological condition in which weakness in the legs is caused by misfirings in the brain, spinal cord, or nerves - there has been a massive amount of hand wringing, speculation, and misinformation - and a notable lack of information coming from either the organization or Mauer himself. Whatever the problems Mauer was having were, they were most certainly exacerbated by a prolonged bout with the flu which left Mauer (along with other members of the team) hospitalized and taking fluids.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Tsuyoshi Nishioka Breaks Leg, Luke Hughes Up
The Twins would've left New York disappointed enough by today's loss to the Yankees, another heartbreaking one run loss in a city where they seem to occur every game for the Twins. But news afterward that freshly minted Twin and Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka had fractured his fibula during a take out slide at second base will have a more lasting impact.
The injury occured on as the Twins were attempting to turn an inning ending 6-4-3 double play. Nick Swisher, who was on first for the Yankees, came in hard to break up the play and Nishioka inexplicably did little to avoid the oncoming freight train. Swisher's slide came in hard on Nishioka's exposed front leg and the Twins second baseman immediately crumpled to the ground having short hopped the throw in obvious pain.
The injury occured on as the Twins were attempting to turn an inning ending 6-4-3 double play. Nick Swisher, who was on first for the Yankees, came in hard to break up the play and Nishioka inexplicably did little to avoid the oncoming freight train. Swisher's slide came in hard on Nishioka's exposed front leg and the Twins second baseman immediately crumpled to the ground having short hopped the throw in obvious pain.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Birds in Flight
In completing their signing of 26 year old Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka the Minnesota Twins "solved" at least half of the middle infield puzzle that was created when the team allowed second baseman Orlando Hudson to leave via free agency and traded away shortstop J.J. Hardy. And, if I were to judge the quality of a signing simply by fan reaction, this would appear to be great news.
I'm not so sure.
While Nishioka had a phenomenal 2010 campaign that saw him hit .346/.423/.482 - .905, while being named the MVP of the NPB, he had a career OPS of just .758 entering 2010 after seven professional seasons. For as troubling as it is that his 2010 campaign is such a significant outlier - it's equally unsurprising to see that it was largely the result of almost insurmountably good luck as he had a BABIP of .395 after having a career BABIP of just .322.
If we were to normalize his 2010 season by gutting those 73 extra points of BABIP, you're left with something much closer to his career OPS mark of .758. A line of .273/.350/.380 - .730. On top of that, he'll be playing in a league that has proven to be extremely harsh to every Japanese player (not named Ichiro) to make the switch. Even good players like Hideki Matsui went from being 50 home run hitters (in a 140 game season) to maxing out at 31 in the Majors. While Nishioka managed to hit 14 home runs last year, and 13 in 2009, I'm guessing that like every Japanese player who came before him, he'll lose most, if not all of that pop in the Majors.
With all the gloom and doom parsed, I should note that Nishioka does have some skills that should translate to the Majors. He's demonstrated a good eye at the plate throughout his career, and does a good job limiting the strikeouts, suggesting that he's a decent contact hitter. He's also got some speed, as he managed to steal an average of 28 bases during his six full seasons in NPB. Unfortunately, his success rate of just 72% is a tick below the point where stealing bases is actually beneficial, and moving to a league where the catchers are much better is going to limit his ability to steal bases as well.
The more I think about this, and the more I discuss it with others, the more it becomes apparent to me that it's significantly more likely that Nishioka's 2010 season was a flash in the pan. Something that, even in the significantly easier NPB, would be almost impossible for Nishioka to duplicate.
At his best, I see Nishioka as a .275/.350/.400 hitter in the Majors, and even that relatively paltry .750 OPS seems more and more unlikely as the facts of the situation continue to percolate inside my mind. It's probably more likely that he hits .260/.330/.360. Of course, given the MLB average OPS for shortstops (.690) and second basemen (.718) in 2010 - a .690 mark isn't quite as bad as it would first appear.
And lest we forget, offense isn't all that encompasses Tsuyoshi Nishioka (or any non-DH I guess...). He's also a three time winner of the NPBs version of the Gold Glove, having won the award at both second base and shortstop. If he can manage to be a plus defender in the Majors that could add significantly to his value. That's no sure thing, but it's significantly more likely that his defense transfers over than his offense.
So let us assume that Nishioka provides a .690 OPS and a +5 UZR/150. That would essentially make him a league average middle infielder - or maybe just slightly below average. Given the Twins total commitment of about 14.5m between his 9.25m in guaranteed contract and the 5.3m bid- they'll essentially be paying him like a 1.1 or 1.2 WAR player. That's something Nishioka should be perfectly capable of being, even given my predictions of a threadbare offensive game.
Now that I've provided you with eight paragraphs of predominantly negative commentary, let me also note that Nishioka will be just 26 in 2011 and that there is plenty of time left for him to improve his game and it's almost certain that his best years are ahead of him. If Nishioka can improve, say into the .750 OPS player I mentioned as his upside earlier, and instead of being a +5 UZR/150 player, were to be a +1- UZR/150 player - well, now you're talking about one of the better overall middle infielders in the game.
In that scenario, the Twins would have locked up a player who was simply capable, they'd have locked up a very good (not quite all-star) player through the prime of his career who could be worth as much as 3-4 WAR at a cut-throat rate. It's likely that Nishioka will, at the least, prove to be a competent every day player, and indeed, there is the possibility for more.
For Twins fans sake, we ought to hope that he outperforms my estimate of a .690 OPS because if not, the Twins jettisoned two players in Hardy and Hudson who were perfectly capable of producing similar or better results for a similar amount. And you know the old saying...
I'm not so sure.
While Nishioka had a phenomenal 2010 campaign that saw him hit .346/.423/.482 - .905, while being named the MVP of the NPB, he had a career OPS of just .758 entering 2010 after seven professional seasons. For as troubling as it is that his 2010 campaign is such a significant outlier - it's equally unsurprising to see that it was largely the result of almost insurmountably good luck as he had a BABIP of .395 after having a career BABIP of just .322.
If we were to normalize his 2010 season by gutting those 73 extra points of BABIP, you're left with something much closer to his career OPS mark of .758. A line of .273/.350/.380 - .730. On top of that, he'll be playing in a league that has proven to be extremely harsh to every Japanese player (not named Ichiro) to make the switch. Even good players like Hideki Matsui went from being 50 home run hitters (in a 140 game season) to maxing out at 31 in the Majors. While Nishioka managed to hit 14 home runs last year, and 13 in 2009, I'm guessing that like every Japanese player who came before him, he'll lose most, if not all of that pop in the Majors.
With all the gloom and doom parsed, I should note that Nishioka does have some skills that should translate to the Majors. He's demonstrated a good eye at the plate throughout his career, and does a good job limiting the strikeouts, suggesting that he's a decent contact hitter. He's also got some speed, as he managed to steal an average of 28 bases during his six full seasons in NPB. Unfortunately, his success rate of just 72% is a tick below the point where stealing bases is actually beneficial, and moving to a league where the catchers are much better is going to limit his ability to steal bases as well.
The more I think about this, and the more I discuss it with others, the more it becomes apparent to me that it's significantly more likely that Nishioka's 2010 season was a flash in the pan. Something that, even in the significantly easier NPB, would be almost impossible for Nishioka to duplicate.
At his best, I see Nishioka as a .275/.350/.400 hitter in the Majors, and even that relatively paltry .750 OPS seems more and more unlikely as the facts of the situation continue to percolate inside my mind. It's probably more likely that he hits .260/.330/.360. Of course, given the MLB average OPS for shortstops (.690) and second basemen (.718) in 2010 - a .690 mark isn't quite as bad as it would first appear.
And lest we forget, offense isn't all that encompasses Tsuyoshi Nishioka (or any non-DH I guess...). He's also a three time winner of the NPBs version of the Gold Glove, having won the award at both second base and shortstop. If he can manage to be a plus defender in the Majors that could add significantly to his value. That's no sure thing, but it's significantly more likely that his defense transfers over than his offense.
So let us assume that Nishioka provides a .690 OPS and a +5 UZR/150. That would essentially make him a league average middle infielder - or maybe just slightly below average. Given the Twins total commitment of about 14.5m between his 9.25m in guaranteed contract and the 5.3m bid- they'll essentially be paying him like a 1.1 or 1.2 WAR player. That's something Nishioka should be perfectly capable of being, even given my predictions of a threadbare offensive game.
Now that I've provided you with eight paragraphs of predominantly negative commentary, let me also note that Nishioka will be just 26 in 2011 and that there is plenty of time left for him to improve his game and it's almost certain that his best years are ahead of him. If Nishioka can improve, say into the .750 OPS player I mentioned as his upside earlier, and instead of being a +5 UZR/150 player, were to be a +1- UZR/150 player - well, now you're talking about one of the better overall middle infielders in the game.
In that scenario, the Twins would have locked up a player who was simply capable, they'd have locked up a very good (not quite all-star) player through the prime of his career who could be worth as much as 3-4 WAR at a cut-throat rate. It's likely that Nishioka will, at the least, prove to be a competent every day player, and indeed, there is the possibility for more.
For Twins fans sake, we ought to hope that he outperforms my estimate of a .690 OPS because if not, the Twins jettisoned two players in Hardy and Hudson who were perfectly capable of producing similar or better results for a similar amount. And you know the old saying...
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Twins Win Bidding For Tsuyoshi Nishioka
The Twins moved aggressive during the 2009-2010 off season to shore up weaknesses in the middle infield as they had struggled mightily to get production from those positions. First, GM Bill Smith moved quickly to pry JJ Hardy away from the Brewers for Carlos Gomez. Then he played the waiting game and came away with Orlando Hudson at a reasonable price.
While both Hudson and Hardy struggled throughout the year with injuries and didn't come close to realizing their full offensive potential, the layout proved beneficial as the Twins, with help from those two additions, vaulted to 94 wins in 2010. Now a year later the team will watch as Hudson departs via free agency and the decision on what to do with Hardy becomes complicated.
In an attempt to create some stability, the Twins placed their bid for NPB League MVP Tsuyoshi Nishioka. On November 26th came up the winners of the exclusive negotiation rights when the Chiba Lotte Marines accepted the Twins 5.6m bid. That gave the Twins a 30 day time frame to complete a deal with Nishioka. Should they be unable to complete the deal, the bid would be refunded.
As a general rule of thumb, players tend to sign contracts that are generally in line with their bids. Diasuke Matsuzaka signed a 50m deal after a winning bid of 51.1m, for example. Expectations are that the Twins should eventually be able to agree on a deal of around 3y/9m. Such a deal would secure Nishioka through his age 29 season.
Nishioka is regarded as a good defensive player at both shortstop and second base with good range and a solid/average arm, though more than one source has speculated that his arm would play better at second than short in the Majors. He does struggle with errors, but that should be more than made up for by his above average range. And, as long as Hardy is with the Twins (and that might not be for much longer) he'll almost certainly be slotted in at second.
Offensively Nishioka is harder to peg. There has been much talk about the fact that he topped Ichiro's single-season hit record, but little mention of his past as an injury plagued league average player. At his best, he's a player who will hit for solid averages, draw some walks, steal some bases, and slap the ball around while using the gaps for his extra base power. He does have enough power to project for a handful of home runs, but the elongated leg kick that he and so many other Japanese players utilize doesn't translate well to the Major Leagues and it's likely he'll need to drop that, which could diminish his power further. Think, .300/.375/.425 - .800.
The problem is that Japanese players, outside of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, have struggled to translate their offensive talents at the Major League level. Couple that with the fact that, until last year, Nishioka was a fairly average player who struggled to stay healthy and there is some legitimate downside. He could certainly wash out the way a much more accomplished Kaz Matsui did and prove to be nothing more than an error prone, low OPS second baseman.
Thankfully from the Twins perspective, they won't be paying him like a legitimate star. Rather, they'll be paying him like a replacement-level free agent, so the downside with his contract is pretty minimal and the upside - that he hits .275/.350/.400 or better - is significant. Should Nishioka be able to translate his offensive game to the States, he could easily prove to be a 3.0 WAR player and an extremely cost effective option at a premium position.
Odds are of course, that he falls somewhere in between and, for a million less than the Twins gave Nick Punto last year, they get all the production and more.
While both Hudson and Hardy struggled throughout the year with injuries and didn't come close to realizing their full offensive potential, the layout proved beneficial as the Twins, with help from those two additions, vaulted to 94 wins in 2010. Now a year later the team will watch as Hudson departs via free agency and the decision on what to do with Hardy becomes complicated.
In an attempt to create some stability, the Twins placed their bid for NPB League MVP Tsuyoshi Nishioka. On November 26th came up the winners of the exclusive negotiation rights when the Chiba Lotte Marines accepted the Twins 5.6m bid. That gave the Twins a 30 day time frame to complete a deal with Nishioka. Should they be unable to complete the deal, the bid would be refunded.
As a general rule of thumb, players tend to sign contracts that are generally in line with their bids. Diasuke Matsuzaka signed a 50m deal after a winning bid of 51.1m, for example. Expectations are that the Twins should eventually be able to agree on a deal of around 3y/9m. Such a deal would secure Nishioka through his age 29 season.
Nishioka is regarded as a good defensive player at both shortstop and second base with good range and a solid/average arm, though more than one source has speculated that his arm would play better at second than short in the Majors. He does struggle with errors, but that should be more than made up for by his above average range. And, as long as Hardy is with the Twins (and that might not be for much longer) he'll almost certainly be slotted in at second.
Offensively Nishioka is harder to peg. There has been much talk about the fact that he topped Ichiro's single-season hit record, but little mention of his past as an injury plagued league average player. At his best, he's a player who will hit for solid averages, draw some walks, steal some bases, and slap the ball around while using the gaps for his extra base power. He does have enough power to project for a handful of home runs, but the elongated leg kick that he and so many other Japanese players utilize doesn't translate well to the Major Leagues and it's likely he'll need to drop that, which could diminish his power further. Think, .300/.375/.425 - .800.
The problem is that Japanese players, outside of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, have struggled to translate their offensive talents at the Major League level. Couple that with the fact that, until last year, Nishioka was a fairly average player who struggled to stay healthy and there is some legitimate downside. He could certainly wash out the way a much more accomplished Kaz Matsui did and prove to be nothing more than an error prone, low OPS second baseman.
Thankfully from the Twins perspective, they won't be paying him like a legitimate star. Rather, they'll be paying him like a replacement-level free agent, so the downside with his contract is pretty minimal and the upside - that he hits .275/.350/.400 or better - is significant. Should Nishioka be able to translate his offensive game to the States, he could easily prove to be a 3.0 WAR player and an extremely cost effective option at a premium position.
Odds are of course, that he falls somewhere in between and, for a million less than the Twins gave Nick Punto last year, they get all the production and more.
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