In completing their signing of 26 year old Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka the Minnesota Twins "solved" at least half of the middle infield puzzle that was created when the team allowed second baseman Orlando Hudson to leave via free agency and traded away shortstop J.J. Hardy. And, if I were to judge the quality of a signing simply by fan reaction, this would appear to be great news.
I'm not so sure.
While Nishioka had a phenomenal 2010 campaign that saw him hit .346/.423/.482 - .905, while being named the MVP of the NPB, he had a career OPS of just .758 entering 2010 after seven professional seasons. For as troubling as it is that his 2010 campaign is such a significant outlier - it's equally unsurprising to see that it was largely the result of almost insurmountably good luck as he had a BABIP of .395 after having a career BABIP of just .322.
If we were to normalize his 2010 season by gutting those 73 extra points of BABIP, you're left with something much closer to his career OPS mark of .758. A line of .273/.350/.380 - .730. On top of that, he'll be playing in a league that has proven to be extremely harsh to every Japanese player (not named Ichiro) to make the switch. Even good players like Hideki Matsui went from being 50 home run hitters (in a 140 game season) to maxing out at 31 in the Majors. While Nishioka managed to hit 14 home runs last year, and 13 in 2009, I'm guessing that like every Japanese player who came before him, he'll lose most, if not all of that pop in the Majors.
With all the gloom and doom parsed, I should note that Nishioka does have some skills that should translate to the Majors. He's demonstrated a good eye at the plate throughout his career, and does a good job limiting the strikeouts, suggesting that he's a decent contact hitter. He's also got some speed, as he managed to steal an average of 28 bases during his six full seasons in NPB. Unfortunately, his success rate of just 72% is a tick below the point where stealing bases is actually beneficial, and moving to a league where the catchers are much better is going to limit his ability to steal bases as well.
The more I think about this, and the more I discuss it with others, the more it becomes apparent to me that it's significantly more likely that Nishioka's 2010 season was a flash in the pan. Something that, even in the significantly easier NPB, would be almost impossible for Nishioka to duplicate.
At his best, I see Nishioka as a .275/.350/.400 hitter in the Majors, and even that relatively paltry .750 OPS seems more and more unlikely as the facts of the situation continue to percolate inside my mind. It's probably more likely that he hits .260/.330/.360. Of course, given the MLB average OPS for shortstops (.690) and second basemen (.718) in 2010 - a .690 mark isn't quite as bad as it would first appear.
And lest we forget, offense isn't all that encompasses Tsuyoshi Nishioka (or any non-DH I guess...). He's also a three time winner of the NPBs version of the Gold Glove, having won the award at both second base and shortstop. If he can manage to be a plus defender in the Majors that could add significantly to his value. That's no sure thing, but it's significantly more likely that his defense transfers over than his offense.
So let us assume that Nishioka provides a .690 OPS and a +5 UZR/150. That would essentially make him a league average middle infielder - or maybe just slightly below average. Given the Twins total commitment of about 14.5m between his 9.25m in guaranteed contract and the 5.3m bid- they'll essentially be paying him like a 1.1 or 1.2 WAR player. That's something Nishioka should be perfectly capable of being, even given my predictions of a threadbare offensive game.
Now that I've provided you with eight paragraphs of predominantly negative commentary, let me also note that Nishioka will be just 26 in 2011 and that there is plenty of time left for him to improve his game and it's almost certain that his best years are ahead of him. If Nishioka can improve, say into the .750 OPS player I mentioned as his upside earlier, and instead of being a +5 UZR/150 player, were to be a +1- UZR/150 player - well, now you're talking about one of the better overall middle infielders in the game.
In that scenario, the Twins would have locked up a player who was simply capable, they'd have locked up a very good (not quite all-star) player through the prime of his career who could be worth as much as 3-4 WAR at a cut-throat rate. It's likely that Nishioka will, at the least, prove to be a competent every day player, and indeed, there is the possibility for more.
For Twins fans sake, we ought to hope that he outperforms my estimate of a .690 OPS because if not, the Twins jettisoned two players in Hardy and Hudson who were perfectly capable of producing similar or better results for a similar amount. And you know the old saying...
Showing posts with label J.J. Hardy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J.J. Hardy. Show all posts
Monday, December 20, 2010
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Twins Deal Hardy and Harris to Orioles For Bullpen Help - And I Rail On Multi-Year Deals For Fringy Positional Players
With his team nearing a payroll of 105m and without having resigned any of their departing free agents (less Jason Repko), Twins General Manager Bill Smith knew he had a lot of holes to fill and not a ton of money to fill those holes with. While we don't know exactly what the Twins 2010 payroll will look like, my best guess is in the 110m range, perhaps as much as 115m. Either way, the Twins were pressed for payroll flexibility given catcher Joe Mauer's significant raise and a number of players due to receive raises via arbitration.
It's with that in mind that it would seem the Twins made a bit of asalary dump move to gain payroll flexibility by dealing off starting shortstop J.J. Hardy and utility man Brendan Harris.
Harris, who is essentially the definition of a replacement level player had a terrible 2010 before clearing waivers and being demoted early and never making it back. That would seem to put a cap on what was a weird contract for Bill Smith to give out in the first place - a two year, $3.5m deal to a replacement level player entering his arbitration years. I railed on GM's giving out three year contracts a few days ago when discussing the Tigers signing of Joaquin Benoit (I'll have more ranting soon when I get to the Jesse Crain signing) - so let me now rail on GM's who give out multi-year deals of any sort to fringe level position players. The Twins did it with Harris and Nick Punto, and the White Sox are still feeling the pain of the Mark Teahan deal.
A couple things:
1) There is never any reason to sign an arbitration eligible player to a multi-year deal unless they've demonstrated consistently above-average play prior. You still own that player regardless.
2) If you have to give a fringy (1.0 WAR) free agent an extra year to sign with you - dont. Let someone else make that mistake. No matter what you think, you can almost certainly find someone else on the free agent scrap heap or on the waiver wire who will provide nearly the same production for a fraction of the cost, and with none of the multi-year headache.
Just say no... Now back to the topic at hand.
With Harris going to the Orioles (along with $500K to subsidize the move) the prime trade chip going to the Orioles, J.J. Hardy is an interesting study. Obviously for a couple of years, Hardy was one of the best shortstops in baseball, posting very solid 2007 and 2008 campaigns with solid OPS marks and his trademark great defense. But Hardy fell off the proverbial cliff following that 2008 season, posting an OPS of just .659, and was demoted by the Brewers in 2009 in favor of Alcides Escobar. He was then dealt to the Twins for Carlos Gomez during the 2009-2010 off season.
Hardy did rebound to some extent in 2010, posting a .714 OPS that was actually a fair amount above the MLB average for shortstops of .690. That above average offense, combined with his trademark standout defense was good for a solid 2.4 WAR despite appearing in just 101 games. It's perfectly feasible that Hardy, given a full season of health (a big question given his inability to stay healthy the past two seasons) could be worth as much as 3.5 WAR. Mark no mistake, the Twins just traded away a player who, in a vacuum was certainly worth every penny he was going to make in arbitration - and more.
Furthermore, the player they're most likely to replace him with, Alexi Casilla, played a big role in the Twins efforts to revamp their middle infield following a disastrous the 2009 season that saw the team receive essentially zero production from their middle infield. In that 2009, Casilla posted an OPS of just .538 - a mark that could duplicated by a decent hitting pitcher. Casilla rebounded somewhat in 2010, posting a .726 OPS in limited duty - a mark that more closely resembles his decent 2008 campaign. If Casilla can replicate his success of 2008 and 2010 over a full season, the Twins should essentially break-even offensively. However, most defensive metrics have Casilla - who came up as a shortstop - as a below average defender at second base where he's spent essentially all his time during his MLB career. If he can't manage to play at least a league average defense at shortstop, the Twins will be losing out on significant production.
It all breaks down like this:
The Twins will almost certainly be worse at shortstop. The only question is, "can Casilla's offense be respectable enough to minimize the loss?" That's a big question, and one that could ultimately end up costing the Twins 2-3 wins in 2011.
In return, the Twins receive approximately 7m in payroll room - the 6m or so Hardy was due in arb. and the 1.25m in Harris' contract that the Orioles are taking on) - and relievers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
Hoey is a survival story with has MLB experience. In 2005, he had Tommy John surgery and is one of those pitchers who came back stronger, as he added velocity after the surgery. He came back and saw limited action in both 2006 and 2007, but missed the entire 2008 season as he recovered from shoulder surgery. He's spent the last two years toiling away in the minors. Hoey has always had the stuff to strikeout batters, be it in the Minors as he's consistently racked up K rates over 10.00 but that hasn't translated to the Majors. He's also struggled with control issues throughout his career, and that hasn;t changed. He could be a 6th or 7th inning option or minor league depth for a thin bullpen like the Twins will have in 2011.
Jacobson is an interesting player. The Twins like that he has a live arm and so far, he's looked solid in the low minors, posting solid strikeout and walk rates. He's still got a ways to go, but he could eventually develop into a bullpen arm for the Twins.
It's with that in mind that it would seem the Twins made a bit of a
Harris, who is essentially the definition of a replacement level player had a terrible 2010 before clearing waivers and being demoted early and never making it back. That would seem to put a cap on what was a weird contract for Bill Smith to give out in the first place - a two year, $3.5m deal to a replacement level player entering his arbitration years. I railed on GM's giving out three year contracts a few days ago when discussing the Tigers signing of Joaquin Benoit (I'll have more ranting soon when I get to the Jesse Crain signing) - so let me now rail on GM's who give out multi-year deals of any sort to fringe level position players. The Twins did it with Harris and Nick Punto, and the White Sox are still feeling the pain of the Mark Teahan deal.
A couple things:
1) There is never any reason to sign an arbitration eligible player to a multi-year deal unless they've demonstrated consistently above-average play prior. You still own that player regardless.
2) If you have to give a fringy (1.0 WAR) free agent an extra year to sign with you - dont. Let someone else make that mistake. No matter what you think, you can almost certainly find someone else on the free agent scrap heap or on the waiver wire who will provide nearly the same production for a fraction of the cost, and with none of the multi-year headache.
Just say no... Now back to the topic at hand.
With Harris going to the Orioles (along with $500K to subsidize the move) the prime trade chip going to the Orioles, J.J. Hardy is an interesting study. Obviously for a couple of years, Hardy was one of the best shortstops in baseball, posting very solid 2007 and 2008 campaigns with solid OPS marks and his trademark great defense. But Hardy fell off the proverbial cliff following that 2008 season, posting an OPS of just .659, and was demoted by the Brewers in 2009 in favor of Alcides Escobar. He was then dealt to the Twins for Carlos Gomez during the 2009-2010 off season.
Hardy did rebound to some extent in 2010, posting a .714 OPS that was actually a fair amount above the MLB average for shortstops of .690. That above average offense, combined with his trademark standout defense was good for a solid 2.4 WAR despite appearing in just 101 games. It's perfectly feasible that Hardy, given a full season of health (a big question given his inability to stay healthy the past two seasons) could be worth as much as 3.5 WAR. Mark no mistake, the Twins just traded away a player who, in a vacuum was certainly worth every penny he was going to make in arbitration - and more.
Furthermore, the player they're most likely to replace him with, Alexi Casilla, played a big role in the Twins efforts to revamp their middle infield following a disastrous the 2009 season that saw the team receive essentially zero production from their middle infield. In that 2009, Casilla posted an OPS of just .538 - a mark that could duplicated by a decent hitting pitcher. Casilla rebounded somewhat in 2010, posting a .726 OPS in limited duty - a mark that more closely resembles his decent 2008 campaign. If Casilla can replicate his success of 2008 and 2010 over a full season, the Twins should essentially break-even offensively. However, most defensive metrics have Casilla - who came up as a shortstop - as a below average defender at second base where he's spent essentially all his time during his MLB career. If he can't manage to play at least a league average defense at shortstop, the Twins will be losing out on significant production.
It all breaks down like this:
The Twins will almost certainly be worse at shortstop. The only question is, "can Casilla's offense be respectable enough to minimize the loss?" That's a big question, and one that could ultimately end up costing the Twins 2-3 wins in 2011.
In return, the Twins receive approximately 7m in payroll room - the 6m or so Hardy was due in arb. and the 1.25m in Harris' contract that the Orioles are taking on) - and relievers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
Hoey is a survival story with has MLB experience. In 2005, he had Tommy John surgery and is one of those pitchers who came back stronger, as he added velocity after the surgery. He came back and saw limited action in both 2006 and 2007, but missed the entire 2008 season as he recovered from shoulder surgery. He's spent the last two years toiling away in the minors. Hoey has always had the stuff to strikeout batters, be it in the Minors as he's consistently racked up K rates over 10.00 but that hasn't translated to the Majors. He's also struggled with control issues throughout his career, and that hasn;t changed. He could be a 6th or 7th inning option or minor league depth for a thin bullpen like the Twins will have in 2011.
Jacobson is an interesting player. The Twins like that he has a live arm and so far, he's looked solid in the low minors, posting solid strikeout and walk rates. He's still got a ways to go, but he could eventually develop into a bullpen arm for the Twins.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Twins Win Bidding For Tsuyoshi Nishioka
The Twins moved aggressive during the 2009-2010 off season to shore up weaknesses in the middle infield as they had struggled mightily to get production from those positions. First, GM Bill Smith moved quickly to pry JJ Hardy away from the Brewers for Carlos Gomez. Then he played the waiting game and came away with Orlando Hudson at a reasonable price.
While both Hudson and Hardy struggled throughout the year with injuries and didn't come close to realizing their full offensive potential, the layout proved beneficial as the Twins, with help from those two additions, vaulted to 94 wins in 2010. Now a year later the team will watch as Hudson departs via free agency and the decision on what to do with Hardy becomes complicated.
In an attempt to create some stability, the Twins placed their bid for NPB League MVP Tsuyoshi Nishioka. On November 26th came up the winners of the exclusive negotiation rights when the Chiba Lotte Marines accepted the Twins 5.6m bid. That gave the Twins a 30 day time frame to complete a deal with Nishioka. Should they be unable to complete the deal, the bid would be refunded.
As a general rule of thumb, players tend to sign contracts that are generally in line with their bids. Diasuke Matsuzaka signed a 50m deal after a winning bid of 51.1m, for example. Expectations are that the Twins should eventually be able to agree on a deal of around 3y/9m. Such a deal would secure Nishioka through his age 29 season.
Nishioka is regarded as a good defensive player at both shortstop and second base with good range and a solid/average arm, though more than one source has speculated that his arm would play better at second than short in the Majors. He does struggle with errors, but that should be more than made up for by his above average range. And, as long as Hardy is with the Twins (and that might not be for much longer) he'll almost certainly be slotted in at second.
Offensively Nishioka is harder to peg. There has been much talk about the fact that he topped Ichiro's single-season hit record, but little mention of his past as an injury plagued league average player. At his best, he's a player who will hit for solid averages, draw some walks, steal some bases, and slap the ball around while using the gaps for his extra base power. He does have enough power to project for a handful of home runs, but the elongated leg kick that he and so many other Japanese players utilize doesn't translate well to the Major Leagues and it's likely he'll need to drop that, which could diminish his power further. Think, .300/.375/.425 - .800.
The problem is that Japanese players, outside of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, have struggled to translate their offensive talents at the Major League level. Couple that with the fact that, until last year, Nishioka was a fairly average player who struggled to stay healthy and there is some legitimate downside. He could certainly wash out the way a much more accomplished Kaz Matsui did and prove to be nothing more than an error prone, low OPS second baseman.
Thankfully from the Twins perspective, they won't be paying him like a legitimate star. Rather, they'll be paying him like a replacement-level free agent, so the downside with his contract is pretty minimal and the upside - that he hits .275/.350/.400 or better - is significant. Should Nishioka be able to translate his offensive game to the States, he could easily prove to be a 3.0 WAR player and an extremely cost effective option at a premium position.
Odds are of course, that he falls somewhere in between and, for a million less than the Twins gave Nick Punto last year, they get all the production and more.
While both Hudson and Hardy struggled throughout the year with injuries and didn't come close to realizing their full offensive potential, the layout proved beneficial as the Twins, with help from those two additions, vaulted to 94 wins in 2010. Now a year later the team will watch as Hudson departs via free agency and the decision on what to do with Hardy becomes complicated.
In an attempt to create some stability, the Twins placed their bid for NPB League MVP Tsuyoshi Nishioka. On November 26th came up the winners of the exclusive negotiation rights when the Chiba Lotte Marines accepted the Twins 5.6m bid. That gave the Twins a 30 day time frame to complete a deal with Nishioka. Should they be unable to complete the deal, the bid would be refunded.
As a general rule of thumb, players tend to sign contracts that are generally in line with their bids. Diasuke Matsuzaka signed a 50m deal after a winning bid of 51.1m, for example. Expectations are that the Twins should eventually be able to agree on a deal of around 3y/9m. Such a deal would secure Nishioka through his age 29 season.
Nishioka is regarded as a good defensive player at both shortstop and second base with good range and a solid/average arm, though more than one source has speculated that his arm would play better at second than short in the Majors. He does struggle with errors, but that should be more than made up for by his above average range. And, as long as Hardy is with the Twins (and that might not be for much longer) he'll almost certainly be slotted in at second.
Offensively Nishioka is harder to peg. There has been much talk about the fact that he topped Ichiro's single-season hit record, but little mention of his past as an injury plagued league average player. At his best, he's a player who will hit for solid averages, draw some walks, steal some bases, and slap the ball around while using the gaps for his extra base power. He does have enough power to project for a handful of home runs, but the elongated leg kick that he and so many other Japanese players utilize doesn't translate well to the Major Leagues and it's likely he'll need to drop that, which could diminish his power further. Think, .300/.375/.425 - .800.
The problem is that Japanese players, outside of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, have struggled to translate their offensive talents at the Major League level. Couple that with the fact that, until last year, Nishioka was a fairly average player who struggled to stay healthy and there is some legitimate downside. He could certainly wash out the way a much more accomplished Kaz Matsui did and prove to be nothing more than an error prone, low OPS second baseman.
Thankfully from the Twins perspective, they won't be paying him like a legitimate star. Rather, they'll be paying him like a replacement-level free agent, so the downside with his contract is pretty minimal and the upside - that he hits .275/.350/.400 or better - is significant. Should Nishioka be able to translate his offensive game to the States, he could easily prove to be a 3.0 WAR player and an extremely cost effective option at a premium position.
Odds are of course, that he falls somewhere in between and, for a million less than the Twins gave Nick Punto last year, they get all the production and more.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Twins Roundup: Week One
The Twins opened the season with two challenging road series, a four game set against defending AL West Champion Anaheim, and another against the rival White Sox and their upgraded pitching. All things considered, they did quite well by going 5-2.
The biggest question heading into the 2010 season for the Twins was how they'd hold up without closer Joe Nathan who was lost to season ending, and perhaps career threatening Tommy John Surgery. Into his vacated slid setup man Jon Rauch, and by all accounts, Rauch performed admirably. While he'll never be mistaken for Nathan with his 89-91 mph fastball, Rauch does what the Twins coaching staff wants all their pitchers to do - he pounds the zone. In doing just that he pitched four innings of relief, allowed just one run, and nailed down all four opportunities he was given.
Offensively the Twins battered the Angels pitching staff for 9 home runs in the first four games. In Chicago the much heralded pitching staff largely snuffed out the power, but the Twins continued to find ways to win, eeking out a 2-1 win behind ace Scott Baker on Saturday. The two most surprising, and promising, performances were by left fielder Delmon Young and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom had things to prove for various reasons. Neither could've started much better than they did.
On the mound the Twins pitching certainly wasn't lights out, posting a 1.21 WHIP, but striking out less than 5 batters per inning. That's not a formula that can hold up over the long term, but thing should improve in that category. The most encouraging thing to see was Francisco Liriano, one more season removed from Tommy John Surgery throwing consistently at 94-95mph with the old bite back on his slider. He was a bit wild on opening day, walking five batters, but the old skill set seems to be back. If he can find a way to control it, the Twins could have the true ace they'll need to make a deep push.
Heading into week two, the Twins are going to be opening up brand new Target Field with a three game set against the Boston Red Sox and they'll have tough pitching matchups against Jon Lester and John Lackey to contend with. The Twins are a team that is going to hit, and if Jon Rauch can stabilize the back end of the bullpen enough to protect most leads, and the starting staff can hold up, the Twins will certainly be there at the end of 2010.
The biggest question heading into the 2010 season for the Twins was how they'd hold up without closer Joe Nathan who was lost to season ending, and perhaps career threatening Tommy John Surgery. Into his vacated slid setup man Jon Rauch, and by all accounts, Rauch performed admirably. While he'll never be mistaken for Nathan with his 89-91 mph fastball, Rauch does what the Twins coaching staff wants all their pitchers to do - he pounds the zone. In doing just that he pitched four innings of relief, allowed just one run, and nailed down all four opportunities he was given.
Offensively the Twins battered the Angels pitching staff for 9 home runs in the first four games. In Chicago the much heralded pitching staff largely snuffed out the power, but the Twins continued to find ways to win, eeking out a 2-1 win behind ace Scott Baker on Saturday. The two most surprising, and promising, performances were by left fielder Delmon Young and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom had things to prove for various reasons. Neither could've started much better than they did.
On the mound the Twins pitching certainly wasn't lights out, posting a 1.21 WHIP, but striking out less than 5 batters per inning. That's not a formula that can hold up over the long term, but thing should improve in that category. The most encouraging thing to see was Francisco Liriano, one more season removed from Tommy John Surgery throwing consistently at 94-95mph with the old bite back on his slider. He was a bit wild on opening day, walking five batters, but the old skill set seems to be back. If he can find a way to control it, the Twins could have the true ace they'll need to make a deep push.
Heading into week two, the Twins are going to be opening up brand new Target Field with a three game set against the Boston Red Sox and they'll have tough pitching matchups against Jon Lester and John Lackey to contend with. The Twins are a team that is going to hit, and if Jon Rauch can stabilize the back end of the bullpen enough to protect most leads, and the starting staff can hold up, the Twins will certainly be there at the end of 2010.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Bounce Back Players
In the race for AL Central supremacy, the fate of the three front runners - the Twins, Tigers, and White Sox - could very likely rest on the shoulders of a handful of players looking to come back strong. Today we'll examine which players fans of those team should expect to come back, and which are likely to disappoint.
Tigers
Magglio Ordonez: Ordonez was hardly useless last year, posting a solid .804 OPS. But for a guy who has a career OPS of of .884, that's not quite what Tigers fans have come to expect. The primary reason for the decline a big decline in the power department. After raking 55 extra base hits in 2009, he had just 35 last year - just nine of which were home runs. More troubling still, it wasn't the first year of decline - he had an absurd 82 extra base hits in 2008.
For a guy who will be 36 this year, the days of posting MVP numbers are likely behind Magglio, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he should rebound nicely this year and be more like the hitter he was in 2008, than the guy he was in 2009.
First and most importantly, while there was a significant decline in power production, there wasn't much change in Ordonez' ancillary numbers. His strikeout, walks, and line drive rates remain essentially unchanged. The one huge difference was in ground ball rate. Magglio, as is the case with most power hitters, has always been an extreme fly ball hitter. Last year that changed radically as his ground ball rate shot up to 51% from a career rate of 44.2%.
To me, that suggests a mechanical issue, and mechanical issues can be fixed with good coaching. I'd be far more concerned if we were seeing declines in the other numbers, as that would suggest lower bat speed, or declining ability to recognize and react to pitches. We don't see any of that. With a fine spring training under his belt where he mashed six extra base hits along with a pair of homers in just 51 at-bats, I'd expect Magglio to produce just fine in the middle of the Tigers order and provide a lot more run producing power to a lineup I think will surprise a lot of people in 2009.
Dontrelle Willis: After being left by the side of the road for garbage removal, Willis has seemingly risen from the dead to reclaim a spot in the Tigers rotation. The Tigers front office clearly felt strong enough about Willis that they we're willing to trade Nate Robertson to the Marlins. Robertson having plenty of his own issues and his own bloated contract obviously convolutes the impressiveness of Willis' feat, but given where he has been the last couple years, this should be seen as a very good sign.
When most people think of Willis, they tend to remember him as the dominant youngster he was with the Marlins back in the early part of the decade. The weird thing is that despite some gaudy ERA and W/L numbers, he was never really that terribly dominant. His fastball velocity at it's peak only averaged 90.5 mph, he only once topped 7 K/9, only once had a walk rate lower than 2.7 BB/9, and has only once had a ground ball rate over 50%. Of all the things pitchers generally need to do well in order to be successful, Willis hasn't really ever done any of them.
To me that means he was getting by on deception, whether it was the crazy leg kick or the weird 3/4, almost sidearm slot he used to throw with. Either way, hitters figured him out. When they did, it left a lot of people feeling confused, but really, there was never much to be confused by. Willis, was, and always has been, a pretty mediocre pitcher. The problem is that beginning in 2006, his walk rate began to deteriorate. It was somewhat steady at first, but his command fell off a cliff after joining the Tigers and since signing a huge contract with the team, he's made just 14 starts in two seasons, with a combined ERA over 8.00.
Things might be looking up for Willis and the Tigers however. Reports this spring are that Willis is throwing in the high 80's, which is just a bit lower than his career norms, and that he's gotten his command issues under control enough to be useful.
I however, remain highly skeptical. While reports of better command are nice, 12 walks in 19.1 spring innings against just 13 strikeouts doesn't bode well at all. While one should never look into spring training innings much at all, in Willis' case, you almost have to. One thing Willis has done a phenomenal job of however, is keeping the ball on the ground, getting 2 ground ball outs for every fly out this spring.
On a personal level, I want Willis to succeed. I've followed his decline pretty closely since his days with the Marlins and remember what a great ambassador for the game he seemed to be. Willis was the sort of player it was difficult to root against, and that remains true to this day. He's always struck me as a pretty humble guy, and to read some of the quotes from him when he was down was just sad. Unfortunately, I also have to listen to my common sense, and on the whole, I don't expect much from Willis this year and I'm afraid he'll be out of the rotation within a month.
White Sox
Alex Rios: Earlier, in discussing Magglio Ordonez, I pointed out how I would be concerned to see a player posting declining numbers in their strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. I used that to illustrate why I expected Magglio Ordonez to have a return to normalcy this season. Well, it is for precisely those same reasons that I am more concerned about Rios.
Even after wasting his first two seasons with OPS numbers in the low .700s and a disastrous 2009, Rios has been a career .289/.330/.444 hitter. He posted back-to-back .850+ OPS seasons in 2006 and 2007 and a solid if unspectacular .798 in 2008. So even with three really ugly seasons in his short career, he's been at least a league average offensive player.
That said, all the trend lines for Rios are going the wrong way. His ISO (isolated power) has decline in four straight seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have trended the wrong way for three straight seasons. His line drive rate, pretty consistently at around 20% for his career nose dived to 16.4% last year.
Those numbers definitely suggest a player who's skill set is diminishing. He simply doesn't seem to be seeing the ball as well, and is no longer able to square it up the way he once was. There is evidence that he may have been able to mask his decline to some extent in 2008 by posting a .337 BABIP, his highest mark ever and 12 points above his career average, though the .798 OPS should've provided some evidence to his lessening skills. Last year however, he was definitely the victim of some bad luck as his BABIP was just .273.
While the trend lines suggest that his decline is real, and his BABIP last year suggests he was unlucky, I personally tend to trust the trend lines more. Even if Rios' BABIP last year was in like with his career average, of .319, which would've added a substantial 36 points to his batting average, 2009 still would've ranked as his worst season since 2005.
I'm confident that Rios will rebound to some extent in 2010, but I'm also confident that his days of being a .800 OPS hitter are likely over. Given the contact commitment the White Sox are on the hook for with him, that could be a very bad thing indeed. Generally speaking Kenny Williams is one of the savviest GMs in baseball, but I think he may have miscalculated this move. Hopefully for the White Sox faithful, I'm wrong.
Jake Peavy: Clearly this is less a conversation about some kind of decline that Peavy had, and more about his return from injury, but there is one possible sign of decline in Peavy too. Most prominently I'm referring to his walk rate. While they're hardly been bad the past couple of years, they aren't what they once were either. From 2004 through 2007, a stretch of four seasons, the WORST walk rate Peavy ever posted was 2.87 BB/9.
While nit-picking on a slightly worse walk rate than normal might be considered reaching, it is worth being aware of. We should also take note of slight decreases in velocity the past couple of seasons. While velocity tends to be over-valued by fans and research shows the difference between fastballs with equal movement and location tend to be almost exactly as effective regardless of the speed with which the pitch is thrown - the exceptions being above 96 mph or below 85 mph - declining velocity does frequently (though hardly always) correlate with declining overall skills.
The good news for Sox fans is that Peavy was dominant in his return last fall. While the strikeout rates were predictably off just a little bit, the walk rate looked good and he kept the ball in the ballpark nicely. He's had some command issues this spring, and while there has been some hand wringing in the media, I'm inclined to believe it's nothing.
I expect big things from Peavy this year, and if he can return to his Cy Young winning form, he could just lead the White Sox to the playoffs.
Carlos Quentin: Much like Peavy, Quentin struggled through an injury plagued 2009 season, but when he's on and when he's healthy he's be a legitimate force in the middle of any lineup. Given the trade of Jim Thome and the off season departure of Jermaine Dye, Quentin will be expected to provide much of the punch in the middle of the Chicago offense.
If Quentin can provide anything like the .965 OPS he did in 2008, it's going to make the White Sox a much tougher team to contend with. Standing in Quentin's way will be an off walk rate, historically poor line drive rates, and increasing fly ball rates.
High fly ball rates and poor line drive rates will pretty much always coincide with below normal BABIP numbers, and Quentin is no exception. If his career BABIP of .255 seems freakishly low, that's because it is. It also means his BABIP of .282 in 2008 suggested he was a bit lucky that year, and a bit unlucky last season. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of a .860-.880 OPS this year.
Twins
J.J. Hardy: Hardy was acquired by the Twins in a trade for Carlos Gomez. It was a good trade in the sense that each team was trading from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness. In the Twins case, they had Denard Span to take over for the offensively challenged Gomez, and the Brewers had top prospect Alcides Escobar ready to take over for declining incumbent Hardy.
Like Rios, who I discussed earlier in this post, Hardy has a lot of negative trend lines that don't bode well for future success. The strikeout rate has risen for three straight years to 20.5% this last year, and his line drive rate has fallen for three straight seasons to an almost impossibly low 13.9% last year. His power also fell off a cliff from a career high ISO of .195 in 2008 to .128 last year. Furthermore a study of his BABIP last year leads one to believe luck wasn't a huge factor last year as his .260 mark wasn't too far off his career .278.
If there was any sign of hope for Hardy last year it was that his walk rate was the best of his career. The Twins won't be relying Hardy to power their offense by any means, and right now it looks like he'll be slotted 7th or 8th in the order. All the same, Hardy was brought in with the intent of shoring up the incredibly weak offense the team received at shortstop and second base last year, and with a 5.1m payroll number, he'll be expected to provide something for the team with the bat.
Thankfully to say, much of Hardy's value is tied up in the fact that he's a plus defender at a defense first position, and that did not take a step backward last season. It'll be interesting to see how the move to the AL effects Hardy - generally that doesn't bode well for the player - if that trend holds true and Hardy isn't able to regain his old offensive form, Bill Smith will have missed once again in a trade.
Everything having been said, I'm not too high on Hardy and I don't expect much of a bounce back season, though he shouldn't be quite as bad as last year. If he can give the Twins an OPS around .750, Twins fans should consider themselves lucky.
Francisco Liriano: After what can only be described as a dismal 2009, many Twins fans seemed ready to give up on Liriano. There was talk of moving him to the bullpen permanently, or trading him for whatever they could get. Thankfully for the Twins, that didn't happen. Instead Liriano headed off off to the Dominican Winter League and dominated. He then came to spring training and picked up where he left off. Between the Dominican League and the Cactus League he gave his teams 68.2 innings of shut-down baseball. In that span he struck out 97, walked 7, and allowed just two home runs.
Obviously those video game type numbers aren't going to carry over to the Majors, but the Twins and their fans have every reason to be excited. Perhaps most importantly, this is one of those situations where the numbers and the reports jive. Scouts have been saying that Liriano has regained more of his velocity, not all of it, but enough to make a difference. More importantly, his slider, once one of baseballs most devastating pitches, is breaking harder and deeper with more consistency than it has since 2006.
Right now Liriano is projected to be the Twins 5th starter but I have a feeling he's going to end up as their ace by the time May comes around. Either way, he should be significantly better than he was in 2009, and I think his downside might be his 2008 second half which was pretty solid in its own right. If Liriano can return to being a #1 or #2 - or even a #3 he's going to make a big difference in the outcome of the Twins 2010 season.
Tigers
Magglio Ordonez: Ordonez was hardly useless last year, posting a solid .804 OPS. But for a guy who has a career OPS of of .884, that's not quite what Tigers fans have come to expect. The primary reason for the decline a big decline in the power department. After raking 55 extra base hits in 2009, he had just 35 last year - just nine of which were home runs. More troubling still, it wasn't the first year of decline - he had an absurd 82 extra base hits in 2008.
For a guy who will be 36 this year, the days of posting MVP numbers are likely behind Magglio, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that he should rebound nicely this year and be more like the hitter he was in 2008, than the guy he was in 2009.
First and most importantly, while there was a significant decline in power production, there wasn't much change in Ordonez' ancillary numbers. His strikeout, walks, and line drive rates remain essentially unchanged. The one huge difference was in ground ball rate. Magglio, as is the case with most power hitters, has always been an extreme fly ball hitter. Last year that changed radically as his ground ball rate shot up to 51% from a career rate of 44.2%.
To me, that suggests a mechanical issue, and mechanical issues can be fixed with good coaching. I'd be far more concerned if we were seeing declines in the other numbers, as that would suggest lower bat speed, or declining ability to recognize and react to pitches. We don't see any of that. With a fine spring training under his belt where he mashed six extra base hits along with a pair of homers in just 51 at-bats, I'd expect Magglio to produce just fine in the middle of the Tigers order and provide a lot more run producing power to a lineup I think will surprise a lot of people in 2009.
Dontrelle Willis: After being left by the side of the road for garbage removal, Willis has seemingly risen from the dead to reclaim a spot in the Tigers rotation. The Tigers front office clearly felt strong enough about Willis that they we're willing to trade Nate Robertson to the Marlins. Robertson having plenty of his own issues and his own bloated contract obviously convolutes the impressiveness of Willis' feat, but given where he has been the last couple years, this should be seen as a very good sign.
When most people think of Willis, they tend to remember him as the dominant youngster he was with the Marlins back in the early part of the decade. The weird thing is that despite some gaudy ERA and W/L numbers, he was never really that terribly dominant. His fastball velocity at it's peak only averaged 90.5 mph, he only once topped 7 K/9, only once had a walk rate lower than 2.7 BB/9, and has only once had a ground ball rate over 50%. Of all the things pitchers generally need to do well in order to be successful, Willis hasn't really ever done any of them.
To me that means he was getting by on deception, whether it was the crazy leg kick or the weird 3/4, almost sidearm slot he used to throw with. Either way, hitters figured him out. When they did, it left a lot of people feeling confused, but really, there was never much to be confused by. Willis, was, and always has been, a pretty mediocre pitcher. The problem is that beginning in 2006, his walk rate began to deteriorate. It was somewhat steady at first, but his command fell off a cliff after joining the Tigers and since signing a huge contract with the team, he's made just 14 starts in two seasons, with a combined ERA over 8.00.
Things might be looking up for Willis and the Tigers however. Reports this spring are that Willis is throwing in the high 80's, which is just a bit lower than his career norms, and that he's gotten his command issues under control enough to be useful.
I however, remain highly skeptical. While reports of better command are nice, 12 walks in 19.1 spring innings against just 13 strikeouts doesn't bode well at all. While one should never look into spring training innings much at all, in Willis' case, you almost have to. One thing Willis has done a phenomenal job of however, is keeping the ball on the ground, getting 2 ground ball outs for every fly out this spring.
On a personal level, I want Willis to succeed. I've followed his decline pretty closely since his days with the Marlins and remember what a great ambassador for the game he seemed to be. Willis was the sort of player it was difficult to root against, and that remains true to this day. He's always struck me as a pretty humble guy, and to read some of the quotes from him when he was down was just sad. Unfortunately, I also have to listen to my common sense, and on the whole, I don't expect much from Willis this year and I'm afraid he'll be out of the rotation within a month.
White Sox
Alex Rios: Earlier, in discussing Magglio Ordonez, I pointed out how I would be concerned to see a player posting declining numbers in their strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. I used that to illustrate why I expected Magglio Ordonez to have a return to normalcy this season. Well, it is for precisely those same reasons that I am more concerned about Rios.
Even after wasting his first two seasons with OPS numbers in the low .700s and a disastrous 2009, Rios has been a career .289/.330/.444 hitter. He posted back-to-back .850+ OPS seasons in 2006 and 2007 and a solid if unspectacular .798 in 2008. So even with three really ugly seasons in his short career, he's been at least a league average offensive player.
That said, all the trend lines for Rios are going the wrong way. His ISO (isolated power) has decline in four straight seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have trended the wrong way for three straight seasons. His line drive rate, pretty consistently at around 20% for his career nose dived to 16.4% last year.
Those numbers definitely suggest a player who's skill set is diminishing. He simply doesn't seem to be seeing the ball as well, and is no longer able to square it up the way he once was. There is evidence that he may have been able to mask his decline to some extent in 2008 by posting a .337 BABIP, his highest mark ever and 12 points above his career average, though the .798 OPS should've provided some evidence to his lessening skills. Last year however, he was definitely the victim of some bad luck as his BABIP was just .273.
While the trend lines suggest that his decline is real, and his BABIP last year suggests he was unlucky, I personally tend to trust the trend lines more. Even if Rios' BABIP last year was in like with his career average, of .319, which would've added a substantial 36 points to his batting average, 2009 still would've ranked as his worst season since 2005.
I'm confident that Rios will rebound to some extent in 2010, but I'm also confident that his days of being a .800 OPS hitter are likely over. Given the contact commitment the White Sox are on the hook for with him, that could be a very bad thing indeed. Generally speaking Kenny Williams is one of the savviest GMs in baseball, but I think he may have miscalculated this move. Hopefully for the White Sox faithful, I'm wrong.
Jake Peavy: Clearly this is less a conversation about some kind of decline that Peavy had, and more about his return from injury, but there is one possible sign of decline in Peavy too. Most prominently I'm referring to his walk rate. While they're hardly been bad the past couple of years, they aren't what they once were either. From 2004 through 2007, a stretch of four seasons, the WORST walk rate Peavy ever posted was 2.87 BB/9.
While nit-picking on a slightly worse walk rate than normal might be considered reaching, it is worth being aware of. We should also take note of slight decreases in velocity the past couple of seasons. While velocity tends to be over-valued by fans and research shows the difference between fastballs with equal movement and location tend to be almost exactly as effective regardless of the speed with which the pitch is thrown - the exceptions being above 96 mph or below 85 mph - declining velocity does frequently (though hardly always) correlate with declining overall skills.
The good news for Sox fans is that Peavy was dominant in his return last fall. While the strikeout rates were predictably off just a little bit, the walk rate looked good and he kept the ball in the ballpark nicely. He's had some command issues this spring, and while there has been some hand wringing in the media, I'm inclined to believe it's nothing.
I expect big things from Peavy this year, and if he can return to his Cy Young winning form, he could just lead the White Sox to the playoffs.
Carlos Quentin: Much like Peavy, Quentin struggled through an injury plagued 2009 season, but when he's on and when he's healthy he's be a legitimate force in the middle of any lineup. Given the trade of Jim Thome and the off season departure of Jermaine Dye, Quentin will be expected to provide much of the punch in the middle of the Chicago offense.
If Quentin can provide anything like the .965 OPS he did in 2008, it's going to make the White Sox a much tougher team to contend with. Standing in Quentin's way will be an off walk rate, historically poor line drive rates, and increasing fly ball rates.
High fly ball rates and poor line drive rates will pretty much always coincide with below normal BABIP numbers, and Quentin is no exception. If his career BABIP of .255 seems freakishly low, that's because it is. It also means his BABIP of .282 in 2008 suggested he was a bit lucky that year, and a bit unlucky last season. I'm expecting something in the neighborhood of a .860-.880 OPS this year.
Twins
J.J. Hardy: Hardy was acquired by the Twins in a trade for Carlos Gomez. It was a good trade in the sense that each team was trading from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness. In the Twins case, they had Denard Span to take over for the offensively challenged Gomez, and the Brewers had top prospect Alcides Escobar ready to take over for declining incumbent Hardy.
Like Rios, who I discussed earlier in this post, Hardy has a lot of negative trend lines that don't bode well for future success. The strikeout rate has risen for three straight years to 20.5% this last year, and his line drive rate has fallen for three straight seasons to an almost impossibly low 13.9% last year. His power also fell off a cliff from a career high ISO of .195 in 2008 to .128 last year. Furthermore a study of his BABIP last year leads one to believe luck wasn't a huge factor last year as his .260 mark wasn't too far off his career .278.
If there was any sign of hope for Hardy last year it was that his walk rate was the best of his career. The Twins won't be relying Hardy to power their offense by any means, and right now it looks like he'll be slotted 7th or 8th in the order. All the same, Hardy was brought in with the intent of shoring up the incredibly weak offense the team received at shortstop and second base last year, and with a 5.1m payroll number, he'll be expected to provide something for the team with the bat.
Thankfully to say, much of Hardy's value is tied up in the fact that he's a plus defender at a defense first position, and that did not take a step backward last season. It'll be interesting to see how the move to the AL effects Hardy - generally that doesn't bode well for the player - if that trend holds true and Hardy isn't able to regain his old offensive form, Bill Smith will have missed once again in a trade.
Everything having been said, I'm not too high on Hardy and I don't expect much of a bounce back season, though he shouldn't be quite as bad as last year. If he can give the Twins an OPS around .750, Twins fans should consider themselves lucky.
Francisco Liriano: After what can only be described as a dismal 2009, many Twins fans seemed ready to give up on Liriano. There was talk of moving him to the bullpen permanently, or trading him for whatever they could get. Thankfully for the Twins, that didn't happen. Instead Liriano headed off off to the Dominican Winter League and dominated. He then came to spring training and picked up where he left off. Between the Dominican League and the Cactus League he gave his teams 68.2 innings of shut-down baseball. In that span he struck out 97, walked 7, and allowed just two home runs.
Obviously those video game type numbers aren't going to carry over to the Majors, but the Twins and their fans have every reason to be excited. Perhaps most importantly, this is one of those situations where the numbers and the reports jive. Scouts have been saying that Liriano has regained more of his velocity, not all of it, but enough to make a difference. More importantly, his slider, once one of baseballs most devastating pitches, is breaking harder and deeper with more consistency than it has since 2006.
Right now Liriano is projected to be the Twins 5th starter but I have a feeling he's going to end up as their ace by the time May comes around. Either way, he should be significantly better than he was in 2009, and I think his downside might be his 2008 second half which was pretty solid in its own right. If Liriano can return to being a #1 or #2 - or even a #3 he's going to make a big difference in the outcome of the Twins 2010 season.
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