Profile: RHP - 6'2" - 175lbs -BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 21
Repertoire:
• FB4 92-94: Straight and hard, tends to leave it up. (50-55)
• FB2 90-92: Plus run, attacks with the pitch, and commands it well. (60-65)
• CV 79-81: Big 11/5 break. Breaks a bit early. (45-60)
• SL 81-82: Slurvy and not projectable right now. (30-35)
• CH 82-83: It has a little sink, needs to improve his feel. (40-45)
Background:
The Brewers took Odorizzi, an athletic pitcher who played shortstop and pitched out of high school with the 32nd overall pick in the 2008 draft. He signed quickly for just over one million and the Brewers immediately sent him to their Arizona League affiliate where he got his feet wet and immediate began showing his promise. He's a hard worker and has fantastic mound presence. A battler who isn't easily intimidated.
Odorizzi has a simple and clean delivery and he repeats it well, helping him throw for consistent location. Still, he does tend to get low in his delivery and doesn't pitch with great plane. He also has a tendency to try and overthrow his fastball and he'll leave his share of pitches up which has made him a bit fly-ball prone.
Like most pitchers, Odorizzi throws two fastballs. Both pitches project well, but I prefer his two-seamer because, though he throws the four-seamer with good velocity and command, the pitch doesn't ride and he seems to leave it up more than the two-seamer. The latter pitch he seems to be more comfortable with and he'll pitch with it more than the four-seamer, which he just throws. His confidence in the pitch shows and he uses it's strong run to back door hitters and saw of righties. I see the two-seamer as a legitimate plus offering.
Of his off speed stuff, I like his curveball more than the slider he'll show or his changeup, which needs more refinement. He'll throw the curve as an out pitch and it gets plus depth with 11/5 action. For the most part he does a good job finishing the pitch though like many young pitchers his age he sometimes does not and he can lose his location and bite. With more consistency and tighter rotation the pitch could be extremely strong.
Performance Analysis:
| Year | Age | Level | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | HBP | WP | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 18 | RK | 20.2 | 8.27 | 3.92 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 3.48 | 4.07 |
| 2009 | 19 | RK | 47.0 | 8.23 | 1.72 | 49% | 2 | 5 | 4.40 | 2.90 |
| 2010 | 20 | A | 120.2 | 10.07 | 2.98 | 46% | 9 | 5 | 3.43 | 2.93 |
Odorizzi spent his first two seasons working on his mechanics in Rookie Ball, and made strides across the board. Then in 2010 the Brewers moved him up to A ball and he took his already strong game to the next level, setting a career marks in innings and strikeout rate, topping ten-per-nine and paired that with strong command and a solid ground ball rate. While that ground ball rate works in the Minors it's likely to trend toward league average or perhaps even slightly fly-ball prone at the next level. How his strikeout rate holds up as he advances will depend on improvements to his curve and changeup.
Projection:
His raw stuff is good but inconsistent right now. He also looks to be somewhat fly-ball prone. He's got #2 stuff and for now I think that's where I feel more comfortable with my projection. Not convinced he'll make it all the way there though.
Corey Ettinger is a Senior Writer for Baseball Digest as well as a proud contributor to both 612Sports.net, 312Sports.com, and 313sports.com. He also provides extensive analysis of the American League Central Division at his own blog, AL Central In Focus. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @Coreyettinger for the latest updates, random thoughts and general tomfoolery.
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