Luke Hochevar's Hot Second Half - And What It Means For 2012.

Of all the unheralded story lines from the AL Central's second half, perhaps the most prominent would be the lack of discussion concerning Luke Hochevar's second half. Hochevar, who was a hard-throwing standout at the University of Tennessee where he was named SEC pitcher of the year in 2005, is probably best known for his refusal to sign after being drafted 40th overall by the Dodgers in 2005 before engaging in a rather epic signing process; playing hardball along with his agent Scott Boras, firing Boras, accepting a lesser offer with his new agent, then firing him and resigning with Boras while reneging on his previously agreed upon deal, and finally playing Independent league baseball until the 2006 draft where he was taken again.

Pitching Optimism in Kansas City

Going into the season, fresh off the loss of Zack Greinke, things did not look positive for the Kansas City Royals pitching staff. Indeed, before the season started, I would have called a rotation featuring Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies and Sean O’Sullivan easily the worst rotation in the American League just based on the eye test. After all, Kansas City did have the worst pitching staff ERA of any AL team last season and the worst starter ERA by almost .6 runs per game WITH Zack Greinke giving the club 200+ innings.

The numbers give a decent indication as to why the Royals were so bad. They were 10^th in K/9 with 6.5 K/9, 12^th in BB/9 with 3.5 BB/9, and tied for 13^th in HR/9 with 1.1 HR/9. I picked these stats to look at because they are fielder independent and therefore give the best assessment of the pitching staff’s actual performance. If you will notice the Royals had the lowest ERA by a considerable margin despite not finishing last in any category. As you might suspect, their defense was rated among the worst by a few different measures. With the absence of Zach Greinke, one would probably suspect that the Royals staff would not need the help of the defense to finish last in staff ERA once again while bringing up the rear in almost all fielding independent pitching statistics. After all, their only significant addition in the off-season was to sign the recovering Jeff Francis.

Should The Royals Implement The Rays Signing Strategy?

This afternoon it was announced that the Tampa Bay Rays had signed lefty Wade Davis to a four year extension worth 12.5m. Those four years will carry him through his arbitration eligible seasons. The team then has the choice to exercise three option years, essentially buying out three years of free agency at what could be far below market value rates. Essentially, Davis gets protection against injury until his free agent years, and the Rays gain payroll certainty and stand to save many million over his free agent seasons should he remain healthy and effective.

Both sides get something important to them.

An extremely promising prospect in the Minors who posted dominant peripherals, he showed glimpses of that talent in 2009, but failed to come anywhere near them last year. After two seasons in which he's thrown a total of 204.1 innings with a 4.45 FIP, the decision to extend him carries some risk. Yes, the ERA looks better with a 4.01 career mark, but he's been the enormous beneficiary of a .279 career BABIP and 75% LOB mark.

Royals Reach Agreements With Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar

With five likely candidates for arbitration deals on the docket, Royals GM Dayton Moore managed to come to terms with two of those five in short order, inking former first round picks Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar to one year deals. Gordon's deal will pay him 1.15m in his first arbitration season, 850k less than my 2.0m projection. Hochevar will make 1.76m, 740k less than my projection.

The fact that both players come in under budget is obviously a good thing for the Royals and a good showing by Moore.