Profile: OF - 6'0" - 210lbs - BT:L - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20
Tools:
• Hit: 40-60
• Power: 45-60
• Eye: 30-50
• Range: 60-60
• Hands: 60-60
• Arm: 55-55
• Run: 60-60
Background:
Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2006, Arcia is one of the Twins many toolsy young outfielders, Arcia had a monster season last year playing for the Twins Elizabethon Rookie League affiliate last year and made the jump from middling prospect to someone to really keep an eye on in 2010. There have been some Bobby Abreu comps being thrown around and that probably works.
Until the past couple seasons, Arcia was a switch hitter but has been working solely from the left side of the plate since he's been in the U.S. Scouts like his swing which is compact and powerful and he does a good job driving the ball to the opposite field which shows a refined approach and speaks even better for his future power. He will need to improve his plate discipline however as he struckout in an alarmingly high 26.3% of his at-bats while walking in just 6.3%. Thankfully to say he'll only be 20 years old in 2011, leaving him time to improve that aspect of his game.
Defensively the Twins have played him all over the outfield, including center. He lacks elite speed but I think he's faster than some give him credit for though I doubt he'll stick in center. His arm is also solid, but not better than average. The combination of average/above-average range, average arm would seem to project him to left field. He's also got good speed on the bases and is a risky but intelligent base runner.
Performance Analysis:
| Year | Age | Level | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | BB% | K% |
| 2009 | 18 | RK | 187 | .275 | .337 | .455 | .792 | .180 | .279 | 8.0% | 10.8% |
| 2010 | 19 | RK | 279 | .373 | .423 | .667 | 1.090 | .294 | .463 | 6.8% | 26.3% |
While he numbers for Arcia were huge, we'd do well to remember precisely why we take Rookie Ball numbers with a grain of sand. Consider some Twins-related prospects the past few years who have also built reputations on big Rookie Ball campaigns. Josmil Pinto posted back-to-back .430 wOBAs (OPS numbers above .930) and last year went to A Ball and posted a .630 mark. Angel Morales (a big sleeper of mine) posted a .460 wOBA and 1.036 OPS - then went to A-Ball and fell to .784. Pinto is off the prospect map for now, while Morales has re-established himself and remains a solid prospect - but the point is that posting huge Rookie League numbers doesn't guarantee future success.
We should also take note of one of the most insane BABIP marks you'll ever see - .463. Needless to say, that's not going to continue. Building in a significant drop in BABIP, combined with his very high strikeout rate, Arcia will struggle to live up to batting average the at his Bobby Abreu comparison suggests. Still, he has the skills to be a .280 hitter if he can improve his eye.
The power however, is for real, you just can't fake a .294 ISO with 14 homers, 7 steals, and 19 doubles in just 255 at-bats and it might be better than the 60 rating I give his upside.
Projection:
He's almost certainly not Bobby Abreu, especially at the plate, his eye isn't that good almost certainly wont be. But he can barrel the ball more than most because he stays on top of it well and he has a refined approach to his at-bats with the willingness and ability to go with the pitch and defensively, he should be able to more than hold his own. He has a lot of above average tools, but he's going to have to turn them into skills, and that's probably going to take a few years and some lumps in A-Ball.
Corey Ettinger is a proud contributor to both 612Sports.net, 312Sports.com, and 313sports.com. He also provides extensive analysis of the American League Central Division at his own blog, AL Central In Focus. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @Coreyettinger for the latest updates and random thoughts.
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