Sunday, October 16, 2011
Felipe Paulino Enjoys a Breakout Following Trade to Kansas City
Luke Hochevar's Hot Second Half - And What It Means For 2012.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Doug Fister.....Ace?
When Doug Fister first came over from the Tigers for a package of Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush, Chance Ruffin and Francisco Martinez, it seemed at first glance that the Tigers may have paid a lot for a ground ball pitcher who could not strike anybody out and relied heavily on his home ball park for success. That recipe seemed dicey at best for the success of Doug Fister going forward as a member of the Tigers.
During the first couple of games that Doug Fister pitched for the Tigers, I was both surprised and encouraged by how effective Fister’s arsenal seemed to be. Fister features a both four seam fastball and a two seam fastball which he throws nearly as often and at virtually the same average velocity of 90 mph. The two seamer features a few additional inches of down and in run to right handers as opposed to his normal four seam fastball. The identical speed but different trajectories make things very difficult on opposing hitters. Furthermore, Fister features a range of off speed pitches including a very nice slow curve ball with 12-6 break at around 75 mph, a harder slider at around 86 mph with only moderate break, and a change up at around 83 mph with similar but slightly more downward movement as compared with his two seamer.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Adam Dunn: Mechanics, Age or a Little of Both?
I have somehow managed to avoid discussing Adam Dunn this season mostly because I usually like to talk about either positive things or at least somewhat intriguing negative things. Adam Dunn might come close to the latter but my “hunch” all season was that his issues this year have had mostly to do with a combination of bad luck and old age. I assumed early on that he would probably at least right his production enough to be considered a “productive” DH but at this point it is clear that ship has sailed.
Recently I encountered several intriguing pieces on Adam Dunn. The first, was Bradley Woodrum’s article entitled Adam Dunn Should Hit Better – But Not Much Better, which largely confirmed at least part of my first suspicion, that Dunn has been unlucky. Woodrum uses a predictive model entitled ShHAP which uses career BABIP and the players K, BB and HR rates to make predictions of expected player performance. Those of you who have read previous articles of mine know that I have done very similar analysis of other players. Seeing as how Woodrum’s work would likely completely mirror any work I could do on the subject, it suffices to say that I agree with Woodrum’s conclusion. Dunn has been unlucky to an extent but his drop in production has largely resulted from a dramatically increased K rate, lower BB rate, and lower HR rate on fly balls. Even with a luck adjustment Dunn would not be expected to be a serviceable DH.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Burning Bridges with Kevin Slowey
At this point, there seems to be little secret that Kevin Slowey has fallen out of favor with the Minnesota Twins. It seems that everybody within the general vicinity of Kevin Slowey hates Kevin Slowey. I have to admit ignorance on this one; he seems like a nice enough guy when he threatens to murder people. However, I can see how Slowey time traveling, kidnapping and then murdering the Lindbergh baby would not win him popularity points with anyone.
A Look Back at the Ubaldo Jimenez Trade: Various Thoughts
After Ubaldo Jimenez was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Cleveland Indians, various baseball writers offered up their opinions on the trade. Keith Law, for instance, seems to take the position the Indians were wrong to buy at the deadline when they acquired Jimenez because the club was really still in a rebuilding phase (at least that’s what I gathered from reading the first couple of paragraphs: I’m not an ESPN insider). Others at fangraphs.com questioned the Rockies motivations for selling on Ubaldo while both considering injuries and value.
These articles make good points. The Indians really do not have a decisive direction to go in long term. Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall are too new and too inexperienced to say for sure that some of the Indian's young pieces are turning them into a contender while they have team control and it is hard (though not impossible) to imagine Matt Laporta turning into much more than he currently is at 1b. The pitching staff has enjoyed an excellent season. Staff leader Justin Masterson has pitched well but enjoyed some luck with his low BABIP and HR/FB rates. The team is very much in the middle ground, not quite coming or going. Much of their future success could hinge on how Jimenez adjusts to the AL and if Grady Sizemore can recover from his injury troubles by next season after which he is a free agent.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Indians Acquire Fukudome
Fukudome, 34, currently holds a .273 average and a .374 OBP, 13th in the NL and has often leadoff for the Cubs. Fukadome typically falls off sharply as the season wears on compiling a career average in August of .275 and .198 in Sept/ Oct.
Going to the Cubs are 2 underwhelming prospects; Abreu, 21, is hitting .244 at High-A. Smith, 25, has a 4.50 ERA and a 2-3 record in 46 innings, strictly in relief.
Teahen/ Jackson to Toronto
Frasor, 33, is an Oak Forest, IL native and has been in the Toronto ‘pen for the last 7 years this year he is 2-1 with a 2.98 ERA over 42 innings. Although he's a Cubs fans he says hes happy to be back in Chicago
Stewart, 24, was drafted in 2008 by the Reds and made his MLB debut this year. He is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA over 16 innings this year. He was rated the #5 prospect in the Jays organization by Baseball America. Stewart was promoted to AAA in 2009 but was dropped back to AA this year. Stewart will start for AAA Charlotte.
This move opened payroll for the Sox, with Toronto taking on 100% of teahen contract but also opened a roster spot for Alejandro De Aza who has been tearing up the Minors since arriving with the Sox in the beginning of last year his numbers are:
• 2009 - .300/.370, 21 2B,
• 2010 - .302/.366, 21 2B
• 2011 - .322/.378, 29 2B, 22 SB
what does De Aza bring to the Sox? A possible replacement for current leadoff hitter, Juan Pierre, who is in the final year of his contract and will, more than likely, not be offered one next year. De Aza also offers a viable Centerfield option, opposed to Alex Rios who has looked lazy this year.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Kansas City’s Cabrera Conundrum
The decision with Francoeur seems more straightforward for the Royals on its face. He is only under team control until the end of this current season. His peripheral stats are largely the same as they have always been, the one difference for him this season has been increased power output. Francoeur is going for extra bases at a rate similar to that of his second season in Atlanta when everybody thought he might be a breakout player for the Braves. Francoeur has demonstrated this type of power before, and has fallen off this level of power production before. Unfortunately, because Francoeur does not hit for a high average or take many walks, his value is pretty much entirely tied to his power output, which largely cannot be trusted at its current level. Especially when you consider that his production since the first month of the season has fallen off dramatically. As such the decision for KC is easy, with no team control and a player who is not all that valuable going forward, trade him for whatever you can get and move on.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Indians Activate Carmona, Call Up Huff. Both Dominate Twins.
The soft tossing 27 year old lefty Huff made a fine start, going seven innings without allowing a run in sweltering heat. The start stands as one of the finest of Huff's career as he's managed to throw seven shutout innings just two other times in his career, both in 2009.
Sunday, July 17, 2011
Twins Send Baker to the DL, Tolbert to Rochester, Call Up Two
Last night however Baker told the team that he still didn't feel well enough to start. Facing a double header against the Indians starting tomorrow - the first game of which Baker was expected to start - the team has choosen to send him to the disabled list and called up 25 year old lefty Scott Diamond, a Rule V selection who will start the second game of the twin bill.
Tigers Designate Ryan Perry, Recall Alburquerque
The diagnosis is still worrisome for me, and should be for fans of the Tigers as well but it's obviously good to see that the team did the right thing, placing him on the disabled list immediately instead of asking the player to try and work through it. Not that a fifteen day respite necessarily cures anything if something is seriously wrong, but it's the proper amount of caution in this circumstance.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
Carlos Guillen Set to Make His Return
The problem, to the extent that there can be a problem with scoring as many runs as the Tigers do, is that they still have a bevy of lineup spots in which they've received essentially zero production. That means that even marginal upgrades to league average-type production at a few of those spots could translate into multiple added wins.
For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a big deal.
White Sox Sign Doug Davis
In 2004 and 2005 Davis turned in a pair of very good seasons, posting ERAs of 3.39 and 3.84 respectively while throwing over 200 innings in each campaign. He's been decidedly less effective since those seasons however and after signing with the Cubs this offseason got torched for a 6.50 ERA over nine starts before being demoted.
Davis' peripherals however remain solid as he still sports a K rate over 7.00 with a solid 42.8% GB rate. He has walked far too many but it's certainly possible that, in a pinch, he could deliver some quality innings. And that's precisely what the White Sox are looking for - someone who could be relied upon in a pinch should injuries necessitate the team turning to it's 7th starter.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Young, Plouffe Return for Twins
Sadly the Twins decided to send Plouffe back to AAA despite him showing some glipses of his phenomenal power by hitting three home runs and five total extra base hits in his first 72 Major League plate appearances. The decision was made after Manager Ron Gardenhire repeatedly blasted the young infielder to the media following series of errors.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Denard Span Set To Begin Rehab Assignment
Thankfully for the Twins rookie Ben Revere stepped up and capably filled his shoes, posting a .275 batting average (empty though it may have been) while playing electrifying defense in center field, and causing havoc on the bases - showing why he's been such a highly regarded prospect for so long now.
Now Span is ready to begin a rehab assignment, and given that he's missed so much time it's likely the stint will be somewhat lengthy. Twins fans could expect him to play at least a week of games before actually returning to the team. Even then it's likely that he'll have some rust to shake off.
Regardless, getting a player of Span's caliber back at the top of the lineup where his .750 OPS and .361 OBP can help load the bases for Joe Mauer and Co..
What'll be interesting to see is precisely how Manager Ron Gardenhire decides to go about balancing both his bevy of outfielders, as well as his lineups. For now it would seem that the plan would be for Delmon Young, who is set to return tomorrow, to stay in left, Revere to remain in center, and for Span to slide over to right while Michael Cuddyer mans first base.
Who will bat second is still up in the air however. Alexi Casilla has a slightly better OBP than Revere, but Gardy seems to really like Revere's presence at the top of the order, and his elite contact skills would fit Gardy's small-ball style perfectly.
Jeanmar Gomez Poised to Take Talbot's Rotation Spot
Those numbers are the combined ERA of the Indians starters for April, May, June, and July respectively, and they show a disturbing downward trend. In 2010 the Indians 4.53 ERA from it's starters was the 2nd worst in the AL, and this years team features essentially the exact same group of arms, with similar results.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
The All AL Central All-Star Team
Disagree with my decisions? Let me know in the comments section.
C) Alex Avila (Tigers): .286/.370/.506, 10HR, 2.7 WAR - Perennial All-Star Joe Mauer has been hurt, and ineffective when not hurt. Avila has been a revelation.
1B) Miguel Cabrera (Tigers): .311/.430/.549, 18HR, 3.1 WAR - A defensive liability, but an absolute monster at the plate, as his .979 OPS (ho hum) attests.
2B) Gordon Beckham: (White Sox): .245/.305/.360, 7HR, 1.1 WAR - Beckham still hasn't blossomed into the player the Sox hoped, but he's the best choice in a very weak field of candidates.
3B) Jack Hannahan (Indians): .222/.312/.348, 5HR, 1.2 WAR - A solid FA signing by the Indians, Hannahan kept the spot warm for top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall.
SS) Jhonny Peralta (Tigers): .312/.362/.529, 14HR, 3.3 WAR - A dead tie between him and Asdrubal Cabrera in WAR, Peralta has the better wOBA and UZR.
LF) Alex Gordon (Royals): .299/.367/.483, 11HR, 3.4 WAR - The WAR leader amongst AL Central position players. Seriously. Finally becoming the player the Royals always hoped he would.
CF) Melky Cabrera (Royals): .293/.332/.455, 11HR, 3.0 WAR - Perhaps the best dollar/performance FA signing in baseball this year, Cabrera signed for just 1.25m.
RF) Carlos Quentin (White Sox): .251/.350/.502, 17HR, 2.4 WAR - Experiencing a resurgent season, tied with Brennan Boesch in WAR. Get's nod for playing more in RF than Boesch.
DH) Travis Hafner (Indians): .325/.406/.528, 8HR, 1.5 WAR - PRONK SMASH! Indeed.
BN) Carlos Santana (Indians): .230/.363/.418, 13HR, 2.1 WAR - Hampered by a very slow start, bat has started to click the past couple months.
BN) Brennan Boesch (Tigers): .306/.360/.490, 12HR, 2.4 WAR - Proving that 2010 season wasn't a fluke.
BN) Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians): .293/.347/.489, 14HR, 3.3 WAR - Missed being the starting SS by the thinnest of margins.
BN) Alexi Ramirez (White Sox): .274/.331/.414, 9HR, 3.2 WAR - The AL Central boasts the three best shortstops in the AL (by WAR).
SP) Justin Verlander (Tigers): 151 IP, 2.15 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 4.5 WAR - You don't really need an explanation, do you?
SP) Justin Masterson (Indians): 121.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 2.9 WAR - Helping to corner the market in dominating starters with 'Justin' as their first name.
SP) Scott Baker (Twins): 110.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 2.2 WAR - The only Twins player actually deserving of the name All-Star (and only in an all ALC context).
SP) Philip Humber (White Sox): 105.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 2.2 WAR - While Melky is probably the best FA signing of the year, Humber is hands down the finest waiver acquisition.
SP) Mark Buehrle (White Sox): 121.0, 3.42 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 2.0 WAR -
RP) Rafeal Perez (Indians): 37.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.8 WAR - Experiencing a real career revival.
RP) Vinnie Pestano (Indians): 33.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 0.8 WAR - Key reason why the Indians bullpen has been one of the best in baseball.
RP) Greg Holland (Royals): 25.0 IP, 1.08, 2.32 FIP, 0.8 WAR - A late callup building off his promising 2010 showing, Holland has been nothing less than lights-out.
RP) Aaron Crow (Royals): 43.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 0.3 WAR - The Royals have leaned on this starter-turned reliever to hold any close lead late in games.
RP) Al Albuquerque (Tigers): 29.0 IP, 2.79 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 0.9 WAR - Has used his hot fastball, frightening lack of control, and devastating slider to shut down opponents.
RP) Sergio Santos (White Sox): 42.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 1.1 WAR - Continued his meteoric rise from obscure MiLB infielder, to MLB closer.
RP) Glen Perkins (Twins): 33.2IP, 1.87ERA, 1.98 FIP, 1.2 WAR - Fulfilling the potential he had prior to arm surgery years ago.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Would Calling Up Jacob Turner Be The Right Decision?
Let's start with the first question: How did we get to this point?
The Nightly Note: America's Finest Moment
But if you're into watching top flight competition, on the grandest of a sports stages, then you should've been watching the women's World Cup. The US women's squad not only has a history of success (unlike the men) they're a perennial favorite, and for the casual fan the difference between the men's and women's games is hardly noticeable.