Profile: 5'11" - 180lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 22
Tools:
• Hit: 40-60
• Power: 35-45
• Eye: 40-50
• Range: 55-65
• Hands: 60-65
• Arm: 60-60
• Run: 50-50
Background:
Colon was the 4th overall pick overall pick of the 2009 draft out of Cal State Fullerton and signed quickly for 2.75m and was able to get in a good chunk of playing time for the Royals Advanced A Wilmington team. Colon lacks the ceiling of some of the other prospects taken ahead of or even behind him in the draft, but there was a significant drop off in middle infield talent behind him, and with the Royals needing a long-term answer at shortstop, the polished Colon was a good fit.
While his results during his first professional season weren't fantastic, Colon's decision to sign quickly puts him in a position where he should be able to reach AA by next season. Despite not possessing any real standout tools, Colon is solid across the board and should've been able to stick at shortstop. I say 'should've' because the Royals acquisition of defensive standout Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade makes a position switch to second base likely. Should the Royals decide to move Escobar to second, his defense will play up and his power, which is still only average, will be a plus at the position as well.
Performance Analysis:
| Year | Age | Level | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | BB% | K% |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ | 271 | .278 | .326 | .376 | .701 | .098 | .307 | 4.8% | 13.5% |
Obviously we don't have a huge amount of data to work with here, 271 plate appearances in A ball is hardly indicative of what a player will eventually become, but we can see there are areas in which Colon can improve offensively. The fact that he doesn't strike out very much will help ensure that he puts enough balls in play to hit for a respectable average (.270?) but he's going to need to improve his walk rate to a point where he can get on base consistently enough to be an acceptable option. If his power can be average, which is what people are expecting, he'll have a chance to be a #2 hitter. If not, he'll play as more of a #9.
Projection:
He's never going to be a heavy hitter, but I think his offense should play toward league average, and his defense at second should play up. If he can be a .720 OPS hitter with solid/plus defense he's going to have a nice career as a light hitting defensive second baseman.
Corey Ettinger is a proud contributor to both 612Sports.net and 312Sports.com. He also provides extensive analysis of the American League Central Division at his own blog, AL Central In Focus.
Do you buy the Placido Polanco comps? Kind of a utility/light MIF early in career and developing a solid bat as he gets older, perhaps?
ReplyDeleteI liked the pick myself the more I thought about it after the fact. It was the "safe" pick and he may not have the upside others have, but he's got his CSU-F track record to fall back on and after taking a lot of high school guys, a "safe" college pick isn't the worst thing in the world, especially when he'll likely time his debut with other Royals prospects.
Low walks, low strikeouts, below average power... I guess I could see that, but I'm not projecting a .300 bat out of him. I think I see more of a .270/.330/.390 hitter. Maybe a bit more some years, bit less in others.
ReplyDeleteThat's not as strong offensively as Polly, but I think he'll be better with the glove.
Yeah, by all accounts he should be dynamite with the glove and with even an average bat, that's great value for a young 2B.
ReplyDelete