Morning In The Central

I've been gone for a long time, so lets get my writing started again with something easy - lets link to other peoples writing!

- Over at Let's Go Tribe they compare the talent levels of 2003/2004 to 2010. They also take a stab at the Indians perplexing second base situation where the team has far too many players for one positions.

- Nino Colla over at The Cleveland Fan has an excellent Tribe spring training primer. For those looking for a quick and dirty over view of what the team will be looking at this spring, it's highly recommended.

Also at The Cleveland Fan, you'll find Alan Ciammaichella's Indians Top-50 prospects. I've plugged this list time and again, and now I'm doing it again. His work is really top-notch so be sure to stop over and read up.

- Jason Kendall has become quite the Twitter punch-line in the last 24 hours after unloading on a reporter who was trying to ask a pretty benign question to Mike Moustakas. It's pretty hilarious stuff with Kendall making quite the ass of himself. #rewindyourself

- Jeff Parker of Royally Speaking did something almost inexplicable, he took a couple days off, but chipped in with a beauty on Yuniesky Betancourt and RBI. It's a good piece with some fun background from his old writing days. As always, his work is a must-read.

- Steve Adams has a good piece up at 612Sports asking the question, Is Delmon Young Part Of The Twins Future? He's good enough to link back to my work covering his arbitration signing, so that's gotta count for something, right? Personally I expect he will be, but Adams has some good points, and with the incredible outfield depth in the Twins system, it's at least plausible that the Twins could let him walk after 2012.

- When the Twins didn't sign Francisco Liriano to a long-term deal this spring, it surprised quite a few people and the subsequent and overblown fears about a potential trade sent the Twins blogosphere into a tizzy. But with Liriano having shoulder soreness this spring and reportedly checking into camp out of shape, people are now questioning his work ethic. Phenomenal Twins blogger Nick Nelson has a very well written piece discussing the whole ugly situation.

- Parker Hageman has a great piece that should help unravel the mystery that is the Twins new middle infielder, Tsuyoshi Nishioka. He's also got a great notes section with thoughts on all sorts of Twins spring training news.

- Southside Sox is running a really cool series comparing the three AL Central contenders by WAR broken down by hitters and pitchers. Part one, the hitters, is available today. Frankly though, there is a on of really good new content up over there since I went on break, including breakdowns of the AL Central right fielders and a great spring training preview.

- Over at North Dakota Twins Fan, Cody Christie has been a writing machine, churning out high quality daily Twins content. Be sure to stop over and take a look, you wont be disappointed.

Prospect Profile: LeVon Washington

LeVon Washington

Profile: 5'11" - 170lbs - BT:L - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20


Tools:

• Hit: 30-60
• Power: 25-45
• Eye: 35-60
• Range:  50-65
• Hands: 50-65
• Arm: 35-40
• Run: 65-70

Vacation!

If you're one of my readers, you're probably wondering why there hasn't been the typically massive amount of content you're probably used to by now. It's because I'm on vacation, and I'm not coming back until late Monday. I might check in with the occasional post, but by-in-large, I'm going to be as far away from a keyboard as possible. Instead, I'll be enjoying a bevy of  exceptional massages, partying, taking a polar plunge, enjoying some amateur MMA fights, and other various and assorted shenanigans.  I'll also be consuming unsafe amounts of alcohol. Thankfully, the party is right outside my hotel, which means I wont be getting behind the wheel of a motorized vehicle.

Stay safe, have fun, enjoy baseball, pictures to follow.

PS: IF you need me... I mean really, really need me!

The Miguel Cabrera News

It probably hasn't been an ideal start to your Thursday if your a Tigers fan. As dozens upon dozens of media outlets have surely made you aware by now, Miguel Cabrera has been arrested on a DUI charge. Obviously this isn't Cabrera's first run-in with alcohol related issues - he infamously had a physical altercation with his wife after drinking during the stretch run of the 2009 season. The Tigers would collapse down the stretch, blowing a significant division lead to the Twins, and lose in an epic 163rd game.

Following the 2009 debacle, Cabrera checked himself into rehab and got help, admitting, "My drinking was a problem..." The flip side to all of that negativity was his resurgence in 2010. A slimmed down, and reportedly sober Cabrera would go on to have an MVP-worthy season, posting a .328/.420/.622 triple slash line, nearly single handedly keeping the Tigers relevant with a 6.2 WAR season.

The Nightly Note

Whenever I engage in a topical conversation or debate, one thing I considered important, vital, essential, is that you provide intelligent rationale and support your assertions with data when possible. I believe that to do anything less dilutes your credibility, be it as a writer, a politician, student, or employee.

In doing so you're giving others the opportunity to cross check your work. It's easy to make a claim:

"Player x is better than player B..."
"Franklin Roosevelt saved America from the great depression..."
"My plan will significantly reduced the costs to the taxpayer..."

Royals Payroll Estimate: 2/16/2011

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 seasons and those that follow. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

Tigers Payroll Estimate: 2/16/2011

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 seasons and those that follow. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

White Sox Payroll Estimate: 2/16/2011

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 seasons and those that follow. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

Twins Payroll Estimate: 2/16/2011

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 seasons and those that follow. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

Twins, Young Come To Terms, Avoid Arbitration

It took nearly right up until the deadline, but the Twins and outfielder Delmon Young, one of just four remaining holdouts in all of baseball, have come to terms on a 5.375m contract and avoided arbitration. The deal covers Young's second arbitration season and is for 75,000 less than the mid point of the two offers and 125,000 short of my 5.5m estimate. It's also the final arbitration deal for the AL Central's off season.

Midnight In The Central

What an incredible day of baseball bloggery. So much content from so many great sites and so many talented writers. Let's dive in.

- Over at Southside Sox, Colintj wrote a piece entitled, "Sorry PECOTA, Edwin's For Real." The piece was thought provoking enough, but I disagree with a lot of the premises he seems to be making. Primarily that Edwin Jackson has somehow turned a corner. Did he throw harder with the White Sox? Sure. But we're walking about an 11 game sample size. And as always, Edwin was wildly inconsistent. In his first five starts he went 45K/8BB in 36.2 innings with a .546 OPS against. Incredible work, his best ever even. He then followed it up with 6 starts in which he went 32K/10BB in 38.2IP with a .770 OPS against. And take a look at the schedule he faced (team scoring rank in parentheses); 

BAL (13th)
CLEx2 (12th)
OAK (11th)
KCRx2 (10th)
DETx4 (8th)
BOS (2nd)

So in other words, for five games he was great against some really bad teams. For the next six, he was very much like his old self against some really bad teams.

The lens through which you choose to view Jackson will likely have a lot to do with your personal allegiances, but I've spent too many years trying to buy into Mr. Jackson only to be repeatedly let down to not take any fleeting improvements with anything less than a 10lb bag of salt. Hopefully I'm wrong and he has a great year for the South Siders.

- Also at Southside Sox, lead writer and editor Jim Margalus throws his hat into the ring and ponders whether Paul Konerko can repeat his success of 2010.

- Nick Nelson examines the Twins primary outfield backup plan, propsect Ben Revere.

- Lee Panas handicaps the Tigers opening day second base job, and has Scott Sizemore out in front.

- Over at Royals Authority, Nick Scott discusses the difficulties inherent in trying to replace the production of David DeJesus.

- North Dakota Twins fan has a pair of Twins-bullpen-related posts up. One asking the question of how cautious the team ought to be with Joe Nathan, and another pegging Pat Neshek as the key to the Twins 2011 bullpen.

- There are certain writers I mention a lot, and for good reason. One of them is Alan Ciammiachella and he finally finished up his rundown of the Top-50 Indians prospects. Alan's work is well written, insightful, and thorough.

Going through the process myself for the very first time, I can honestly say it's an incredible grind and those who undertake the process and devote as many words to each player as he does are very impressive writers.

- Not AL Central related at all, but here's a video of Marlins top prospect Logan Morrison taking BP in the Marlins new, but still far from finished stadium. Just from the existing architecture, it looks like it'll be beautiful. And oh the sweet sound of the crack of the bat.

The Nightly Note

Talk about a disappointing day of writing. When I discussed writing being a journey yesterday, days like today are part of that journey. You can set out with noblest of intentions - to be productive and produce thought provoking content, to follow up on all your outstanding obligations - and then for various reasons, fail miserably. In that same piece, I noted that real life can be like baseball in the sense that improving your game means acknowledging your flaws. Well, it also means you're going to have games where you go 1-5 with a bloop single and leave 6 runners in scoring position.

Today was kind of like that for me.

Prospect Profile: Tony Wolters

Tony Wolters

Profile: SS - 5'10" - 155lbs - BT:L - TH:R - 2011 Age: 19


Tools:

• Hit: 30-55
• Power: 25-50
• Eye: 35-60
• Range:  55-60
• Hands: 55-65
• Arm: 60-65
• Run: 50-55

Prospect Profile: Chance Ruffin

Chance Ruffin

Profile: RHP - 6'0" - 185lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 22


Repertoire:

• FB 91-93: Can locate the pitch well, has good run. (55-60)
• SL 81-83: Good bite, well commanded (60-65)
• CV 76-79: Too slurvy, hitters can pick it up easily. (35-45)
• CH 84-86: Poor differential, doesn't have a great feel for the pitch. (30-40)

Morning In The Central

Ok, it's a really early morning in the Central set of links, but until I get an editor, I still get to choose my own titles, inappropriate as they might be. I trust everyone had a pleasant Valentine's day and survived their Monday's well enough.

I never got around to writing the Chance Ruffin profile I had intended to yesterday so you'll definitely be getting that today, and quite possibly one more profile. Also on the docket will be an examination of how Grady Sizemore and Carlos Guillen are faring in their respective rehabilitations following microfracture surgery and maybe another installment in my Sabermetrics Explained series - I've been wanting to delve into WAR before I start doing my projections for the season, and frankly I need to given how important that will be in my grading.

Not to call out a commenter by any means, but I had the privilege of interacting with one of my readers last night, and while it didn't start out so well, I'm pleased with how our interaction ended. Know this, I'm perfectly happy with criticism, appreciate it even. To some extent, being criticized is how you know you're doing your job well, it's also a great way to help you grow as a writer. Part of being an objective observer and an honest writer means that occasionally you're going to say something that will upset someone. Such was the case last night. To the gentleman/womans credit, they handled themselves with class and integrity, and though we didn't reach a consensus opinion I appreciate that they gave me the opportunity to explain myself further.

That's really all a writer can ask for. 

- The always impressive Seth Stohs covers his list of potential impact prospects for the Twins in 2011. Most of the names will be familiar to Twins fans, but even I was a bit surprised to see Tony Davis on the list. That's digging deep.

- Indians Prospect Insider keeps breaking down their Top-50 with #31 Zach McAllister, the player the Indians got from the Yankees in their mid-season trade of Austin Kearns.

- IPI is one of my favorite Indians sites, but Alan Ciammiachella is one of my favorite Indians writers, and staying on the theme of prospect count downs, he's got two new installments up including prospects 11-15 and prospects 6-10.

- Parker Hageman touches on Scott Baker's recent setback and highlights something I'm usually quicker to point out - that pitchers who deal with minor elbow surgery to clean up loose bodies have a startlingly high tendency to end up having Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter.

He thinks there's good reason for concern, and I for one agree.

- Kirsten Brown has a two part series breaking down something I've been convinced of for some time; that baseball is inherently superior to football.

- David Tokarz of Bless You Boys has his #25 Prospect Profile up, it's Cody Satterwhite.


I realize that's not much, but hopefully it gives you some good stuff to chew over this morning.

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Corey Ettinger is a proud contributor to both 612Sports.net, 312Sports.com, and 313sports.com. He also provides extensive analysis of the American League Central Division at his own blog, AL Central In Focus. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @Coreyettinger for the latest updates, random thoughts, and general tomfoolery. 

Tip-toeing Into A Flavorful World And Grading My Own Writing

Talk about a busy day, I managed to crank out 6 posts yesterday and by my own estimation, they didn't completely suck. Writing has been a journey for me, and as either of my frequent readers might tell you, I'm not all that good at it. I frequently read through my posts and cringe at some of the sentences I put together, or the occasional spelling blunder or typo - and let's not even get into my grammar. Simply put, I'm just not that talented as a writer, and for those of you who are kind enough to read my work once and come back for more, thank you so much for dutifully suffering my inadequacies.

But in real life, as in baseball, the most important part of improving is acknowledging those flaws in the first place. Then working diligently on improving them. If I were to grade my writing abilities on the 20-80 scale they might read something like this;

Chris Sale And The Implications Of A Four-Man Rotation

Having taken a look at the schedule, Manager Ozzie Guillen has decided that he'll try and go with a four man rotation to open the season. His team has off days on April 4th and April 14th which should allow him to easily keep his four other projected opening day starters on their regular rest cycle. He then plans to fill in the rotation with spot starters as needed. Likely candidates for that role would include long man Tony Pena, or minor leaguers Philip Humber or Lucas Harrell.

Twins Sign Felix Jorge

Ben Badler of Baseball America is reporting that the Twins have signed Dominican righty Felix Jorge for $250,000. Jorge became eligible during last years international free agent period which began July 2nd and Baseball America had him projected for the 31st largest bonus international bonus. However Badler states that concerns over inconsistent velocity readings scared teams off. After pitching in the Domincan Propsect League's All-Star game however, it would appear the Twins have decided to take a chance on him.

At 17 years old and standing 6'4" 170lbs, there is plenty of projection left in Jorge. Given time to add bulk and strength, it's likely that he'll add a couple miles per hour to fastball said to currently be in the 88-91mph range. The video included in Badler's report shows a kid with a pretty raw delivery and spotty command. Still, he struck out four of the nine batters he faced in the game and he features a slurvy curveball.

The Twins have done a good job developing raw Latin pitchers and along with some of their other recent signings helps reinforce their presence in the nation where, until recently, they hadn't been as active as some other teams.

Afternoon In The Central

It's gorgeous here in Minnesota again, 40 degrees with some sun and snow melt pouring onto the streets. Feels like spring. I've also successfully completed a stomach altering trade with Chipotle for a barbacoa burrito. Chipotle will receive cash considerations and a player to be named later.

And of course for all you love birds out there, happy Valentine's Day. Feel free abuse your Visas at will.

- I'm constantly prowling through Central-land in search of new blogs and this afternoon I came across Tigers Amateur Analysis. With 200 posts in each of the last two years, Erin is clearly working hard and pumping out a lot of content.

- The AL Central FanSided blogs have finally - at long last, and after a protracted 3rd base run off vote - reached a consensus on position players for it's AL Central all-star team. Unless the rules stipulated that each team needed to have at least one representative, it would seem to me that Adam Dunn got hosed. If the rules did stipulate that, then Butler was the only logical choice.

- One area of the AL Central blogosphere that I have done a poor job exploring has been the Indians realm. That's not on purpose of course, my internet travels just haven't led me in that direction enough. Today I try and fix that.

To open, I'll start with the work of Paul Cousineau at The DiaTribe who has done a phenomenal job with his website and is producing perhaps the best Indians content anywhere. The writing is exceptional, the analysis is spot-on, and the posts are frequent. It'll definitely be a part of my daily reading from now on. A must bookmark if you're an Indians fan.

- I'll also give some love The Tribe Daily. They don't quite live up to the name, but it's a site worth checking out all the same. One thing author Nino Colla really has going is a fantastic list of roster information and payroll data. 

- Kings Of Kauffman keeps counting down their Top-25 prospects, today it's diminutive lefty Tim Collins.

- Tigers mainstay Bless You Boys is bringing on a new writer, Matthew LaFave. I'm sure it'll be another fantastic acquisition for their site and I wish him nothing but the best with them.

Speaking of adding writers, I've been kicking around the idea of trying to bring another voice into the fold here at CiF. We'll see if I actually decide to do anything with that. But if you're interested, let me know by dropping a line at coreyettinger@gmail.com.

- A great take on the Chris Sale situation now that the White Sox have decided to work with a four-man rotation to open the season from Southside Sox. A subject I really need to expound on myself in the near future.

Prospect Profile: Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly

Profile: OF - 6'3" - 190lbs - BT:L - TH:L - 2011 Age: 22

Tools:

• FB2 89-91: Good arm side run with sink. Well commanded. (55-60)
• CT 87-88: Good bite, well commanded (55-60)
• CV 77-78: Can break off a strong offering now and then. (45-50)
• CH 84-86: Needs to improve velocity differential. (35-40)

Late Night In The Central

- This is going to be spraying mace in the the eyes of Royals fans, but Tony Pena Jr is making a comeback... as a reliever. But don't worry Royals fans, Dayton Moore hasn't signed him yet, he's in the Red Sox camp this spring.

- I'm ashamed I haven't caught onto this site sooner, but Clint Scoles is doing some really amazing work covering the Royals at his blog 14 for 77. I'd definitely recommend heading over there and reading some of his work. I'll also be adding it to my recommended reading.

- Still more on the Liriano craziness as a pair of my favorite Twins writers, Nick Nelson and Phil Mackey weigh in with sound analysis and especially in Nelson's case, just really engaging writing. 

- Former White Sox executive David Wilder has plead guilty to charges that he skimmed bonuses from Dominican signees.

The Indians Aren't Going to Lose The AL Central Because Of Their Payroll

Paul Hoynes is a very good beat writer for the Indians and in general, I love and appreciate his work. But in his latest piece, filled with the typical feel-good quotes from folks within the organization that are typical of every team at this time of the year, he seems to insinuate that the Indians are going to have difficulty competing because of the payroll disparity that exists between them and the three front runners for the division crown.

Hoynes is good enough to point out that the Twins won the division six times in the past decade, and in none of those years was the biggest spender in the division. In fact, for at least five of those six division crowns, they weren't even particularly close - and for what it's worth, they opened last year still trailing the Tigers by nearly 40 million.

Evening In The Central

First and far most importantly, happy first day of spring training everyone, it's not quite the greatest day of the year - but it's awfully close. That first day when pitchers and catchers report is like a beacon that lets everyone know baseball is near. If you're a fan of an AL Central team, odds are you're living somewhere that's still pretty cold, and will still be pretty cold for another month. But even though we aren't there, we know that somewhere, catchers mitts are popping again and that salvation from our seemingly endless winter purgatory is at hand. And since Aaron Gleeman - one of my inspirations for writing about baseball - has already done it best, let me just remind everyone, here comes the sun.

Secondly, I apologize for the lack of content around here recently. I spent a couple days this weekend with my fiance enjoying some kid-free time to ourselves. Yes it was lovely. However, I also missed writing terribly and it took an enormous amount of will-power to keep from constantly checking in various websites. I think this is probably a good thing, it means that despite the significant (heck, insane) amount of time I invest into this website, it's still a passion. Yeah, that's a good thing.

But I'm back now and I should be cranking out content in bulk again. I'm still only about half way through my prospect profiles so there is still a lot of work for me to do with those and you'll continue to see one or two a day along with hopefully at least one links post. I'm also anxiously awaiting the Twin signing of Delmon Young, which would mean that baring any new acquisitions, all five teams have essentially finalized their rosters which will allow me to get my second-to-last set of payroll estimates for all five teams up. I'll do one more set right before the season gets under way that will provide you with exact opening day information.

- As I just got done saying, opening day is a really exciting time. A time when fans of teams who's season looks bleak, and even the guys on the field who's season is likely to be bleak, can be excited. It's also a time when fans find out whether all important facial hair superhero's will still be sporting their trademark looks.

- Over at Kings Of Kauffman, they've got a couple profiles up for prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Louis Coleman, both of whom could make an impact in the Royals 2011 bullpen.

- Messing with a kid like this just isn't fair. Ironically, in the event a central team were to acquire Michael Young, I think my general reaction would be the same. While there has been some speculation about where Young might land - the Twins were one of the eight teams not on his no-trade list - there is really no reason anyone should want him. A 34 year old with a career .795 OPS and 48m (16m per annum) remaining on his  contract, he's one of the most outrageously overpaid players in the game.The guys over at The Detroit Tigers Weblog offer a good rationale for why bringing Young in makes so little sense. So does Austin Drake of Detroit Tigers Scorecard.

- If you read my site regularly, you know that I give regular shout-outs to Jeff Parker of Royally Speaking, well, I'm continuing the trend today. I'll stop as soon as his good work does. And given that he's headed into his 4th year of blogging, I'm guessing that won't be any time soon. Most recently he breaks down the Royals rotation candidates by WAR.

If somehow you're a Royals fan (or fan of the Central) and his site isn't bookmarked yet, remedy that situation quickly.

- Remember when I took exception to Dave Dombrowski trading away Armando Galarraga? Well, over at Old English D, they hit on at least part of the reason why. I like Andrew Oliver a lot and think he'll be a very solid starter someday, but odds are he's not there just yet. Unfortunately, he's probably the best option the Tigers have in the event of an injury to their rotation.

- I've already spoke my piece on the issue, but now one of my favorite Indians authorities checks in with their thoughts on the Orlando Cabrera acquisition.

- I'm one of a handful of contributors to a site called 612sports.net, which is a great catch-all site for fans of Minnesota sports and I highly recommend it. In a bit of a unique post, Andrew Bryz-Gornia suggests the Twins should place a waiver claim on the Red Sox recently designated Robert Coello.

- Hold on, what? Kurt Menchsing does a link list and I'm not on it? Hrumph. #snubbed



Did I miss anything amazingly cool? Make sure to let me know.

Prospect Profile: Jacob Petricka

Jacob Petricka

Profile: OF - 6'5" - 170lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 23


Tools:

• FB 94-95: A thrower of the first order, can hit high 90's, rumored to have hit 100 (40-60)
• CV 77-80: Humps the pitch, needs a lot of work. (30-50)
• CH 85-87: Telegraphed (30-40)

Prospect Profile: Brandon Short

Brandon Short

Profile: OF - 6'1" - 195lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 22



Tools:

• Hit: 40-50
• Power: 35-45
• Eye: 35-45
• Range:  50-50
• Hands: 60-60
• Arm: 45-45
• Run: 50-50

Morning In The Central

- Came across a new White Sox Blog to check out, My Sox Are White.

- There was all kind of discussion yesterday about the Twins possibly trading Francisco Liriano. As a rule, I try not to speculate about transactions, far too often it's an exercise in futility. But that doesn't mean there wasn't all kinds of great discussion about it from around the Twins blogosphere. If you're into that kind of thing, be sure to check it out. Recommended links are for Parker Hageman, Andrew Bryz-Gornia, and Jesse Lund... and now the great Seth Stohs chimes in.

- Lee Panas at Tigers Tales gives out a good tool for measuring Weighted Component ERA. What is that you ask? Head over to the site to check it out.

- More analysis of the Indians signing of Orlando Cabrera at Let's Go Tribe and Tony Lastoria of Sports Time Ohio.

- Continued Indians prospect countdowns from Alan Ciammiachella, and Tony of Indians Prospect Insider.

- Royals Review has a good preview for Jeff Francis. I've got high hopes for him and hopefully he has a good year which would help to stabilize a rotation that could be very, very bad. There is also a good piece there about outfielders the Royals should target.


That's it for now, if you think of anyone else deserving of a link today, be sure and let me know!

Prospect Profile: Oswaldo Arcia

Oswaldo Arcia

Profile: OF - 6'0" - 210lbs - BT:L - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20


Tools:

• Hit: 40-60
• Power: 45-60
• Eye: 30-50
• Range:  60-60
• Hands: 60-60
• Arm: 55-55
• Run: 60-60

Indians Sign Orlando Cabrera

*Update* Contract is for 1.0m.

*Update* It's a MLB contact (still no word on the terms) which means the Indians will need to drop someone from the 40-man roster. My guess as to who will be dropped remains unaffected. 

No details yet but the Indians have acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera. The Indians are actually pretty well set in the middle with Asdrubal Cabrera at short and a bevy of options including Luis Valbuena, or Jason Donald who are already on the MLB roster, and Jason Kipnis, or Cord Phelps in the minors.

Prospect Profile: Chris Dwyer

Chris Dwyer

Profile: LHP - 6'3" - 210lbs - BT:L - TH:L - 2011 Age: 23



Repertoire:

• FB 91-92: Gets flat when he leaves it up but he can reach back for 94. (40-55)
• CV 78-79: Very good 12-6 action with refined feel. (65-70)
• CH 83-84: Needs work but flashes average (40-50)

Morning Link Roundup

- More good news for Twins fans following on the heels of yesterdays positive update on Justin Morneau - Joe Nathan is already throwing off a mound and working in his breaking stuff too. Good to know the arm still works. Of course, throwing off a mound is one thing, throwing it well is something all together different. Still, it's better than the alternative.

- Speaking of rehab updates, the White Sox Jake Peavy is also working off a mound. It's a bit different than the Nathan situation in that Nathan is coming back from an injury that is well known - Peavy's detached lattisimus dorsi muscle is brand new ground. Now, I'm not a doctor and I've never played one on TV, but I hope for his sake the recovery process is smooth.

- Alan Ciammiachella (who's last name I'll never memorize) is out with the latest update in his Top-50 Indians prospects countdown with numbers 21-30. He does really amazing work and I always advise people to read him daily.

- Austin Alonzo at Kings Of Kauffman examines the Royals catching situation.

- SouthSideSox keeps running down the Central Division, position-by-position. The latest: Left Fielders.

Prospect Profile: Aaron Crow

Aaron Crow

Profile: RHP - 6'3" - 190lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 24



Repertoire:

• FB 92-94: Solid movement when he doesn't get behind his body, poor command. (45-65)
• SL 85-86: Good lateral and horizontal movement, not well commanded. (50-70)
• CH 84-85: Needs work but flashes average (40-55)

Indians Sign Kevin Calderon

A minor deal today as the Indians signed 16 year old catcher Kevin Calderon out of the Dominican Republic for $80,000. The Indians made the move after Calderon participated in the newly formed Dominican Prospect League's all-star game. Unfortunately, I don't have much to tell you about him as I haven't seen any video and obviously he hasn't played any professional baseball yet.
Reports describe him as an offensive first catcher with a good arm and quick release. How he'll play offensively is anyone's guess until more information is available. What we do know is that he'll likely open the season playing in the Dominican Summer League before transitioning to the United States and the Rookie Leagues.

He's a long ways away from the Majors at this point and clearly a long-shot to reach, but if his defense can play, he'll always have a chance.

*Update*

Paul Hoynsie has some info.

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Corey Ettinger is a proud contributor to both 612Sports.net, 312Sports.com, and 313sports.com. He also provides extensive analysis of the American League Central Division at his own blog, AL Central In Focus.

Prospect Profile: Brett Eibner

Brett Eibner

Profile: OF - 6'4" - 210lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 22


Tools:

• Hit: 40-50
• Power: 45-60
• Eye: 35-45
• Range:  50-50
• Hands: 50-55
• Arm 65-65
• Run: 45-55

Link Roundup

- A few days ago I made a point of highlighting the great work friend of CiF Josh Duggan was doing over at Royalscentricity - today I'll also point out the great writing of Jeff Parker at Royally Speaking. Today he's got a really great article about Alex Gordon up. Highly recommend checking it out.

If those two Royals Blogs aren't on your bookmarks list, they should be.

- The incredible Seth Stohs has a really good post about the Twins Kyle Gibson and why, despite the fact he may be ready from day one, the Twins would be wise to wait with him. Seth is a brilliant prospect mind and one of personal favorite writers/people. The piece is a cautionary tale to everyone about how, despite all the promise, even the best prospects need time to adjust to the Major Leagues, usually multiple years and how going slow with them is always a prudent strategy.

- A positive Justin Morneau update from Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune.

- I could promote this website every day of my natural born life and still fail to do it justice. The folks over at Indians Prospect Insider continue to churn out tons of high quality scouting reports. Over the past week they've profiled seven players - prospects #40-#34. Robbie Aviles (#36 on their list) is one guy I have my eye on.

- Nothing unexpected, but Indians phenom Carlos Santana has been cleared to play ball again.

- Beyond the Boxscore (where friend of CiF Dave Gershman writes) has a very good post up ranking the AL Central rotations. I'd probably flip the Twins with the White Sox, but I certainly understand their rationale.

- Kevin Pajor with his first post as lead writer for Southside Showdown on Carlos Quentin. Certainly wish Charles the best in his venture with FanSided.com, a really solid network of sports blogs.

Did I miss something really good? Let me know about it!

Prospect Profile: Avisail Garcia

Avisail Garcia

Profile: RF - 6'3" - 190lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20


Tools:

• Hit: 35-55
• Power: 35-50
• Eye: 35-45
• Range:  60-60
• Hands: 55-65
• Arm: 65-65
• Run: 65-65

Prospect Profile: Joe Gardner

Joe Gardner

Profile: 6'5" - 220lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 23


Repertoire:

• FB4 91-93: Straight and tough for righties to pick up due to his cross-fire action. (45-55)
• SNK 89-91: Hard with heavy sink and solid command. (55-65)
• SL 82-83: Tougher on righties just due to his release point. Doesn't generate enough depth to be effective vs lefties yet. (40-50)
• CH 84-85: Needs work across the board (35-50)

Link Roundup

- ESPN's Jerry Cranick has handed out his AL Centrals off season grades. Without saying too much, the grades are Tigers B+, White Sox B, Royals B-, Twins C, and Indians D. Can't say I disagree with much of that.

- Filling the gap between ERA and FIP - a great post by Lee Panas over at Tiger Tales.

- Josh Duggan of Royals Centricty calls the Pedro Feliz signing a 'non-story.' If you read my review, you'll know I'm inclined to agree. Still, it's a good read.

- Over at Lets Go Tribe, they have a post in defense of David Huff.

Have anything else you want to recommend? Let me know about it!

Prospect Profile: Trayce Thompson

 Trayce Thompson

Profile: 6'3" - 195lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20


Tools:

• Hit: 35-45
• Power: 50-70
• Eye: 30-40
• Range:  50-55
• Hands: 55-65
• Arm: 65-65
• Run: 50-55

Link Roundup

Doing a daily link roundup is an idea I've kicked around for awhile, and frankly, it should be one of the easiest things in the world to do. I've just never stuck with it for some reason. Today is the day I start... for real this time.

• Over at Bless You Boys, the fantastic David Tokarz has posted his list of the Top-30 Tigers prospects. It's a quality list and with a few exceptions, I'm in agreement with his rankings.

• In case you hadn't heard, there is a brand new sports blog network out there - the G9 network. It's a group of all female bloggers, and one of them is Allison Hagen who runs the Tigers blog, No Run Support. It's a great blog with near daily updates and in one of her most recent updates, she was good enough to link back to my write up of Jacob Turner. Many thanks to her for being a friend of Central In Focus.

• Jerry Holt is yet another in the Twins stable of impressive bloggers and runs the appropriately named, The Baseball Blog. He has his Top-20 Twins prospects for 2011 posted and his picks are interesting with Ben Revere and Kyle Waldrop surprisingly high, and Miguel Sano surprisingly low. This just highlights how no two prospect evaluators are the same. People will rate players high or lower for a bevy of reasons.

If you're a Royals fan, be sure to stop by Kings Of Kauffman and read up on Mike Engle's breakdowns on the teams top 25 prospects. Good reads.

• One more site I want to highlight - and they've really done some incredible work in the past - is Indians Prospect Insider. If you are an Indians fan of any level - or if you're at all interested in their system - this is THEE #1 site to check out. Their work there is absolutely phenomenal and is a first stop for me whenever I need further information on any Indians prospect.

Prospect Profile: Dayan Viciedo

Dayan Viciedo

Profile: 5'11" - 240lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 22


Tools:

• Hit: 40-50
• Power: 60-70
• Eye: 25-35
• Range:  40-45
• Hands: 45-50
• Arm: 60-65
• Run: 40-40

Prospect Profile: Danny Duffy

Danny Duffy

Profile:  6'3" - 195lbs - BT:L - TH:L - 2011 Age: 22


Repertoire:

FB 92-94: One of the hardest throwing lefties you'll find, could add movement, improve command (55-70)
CV 70-72: Gets good depth - needs to throw harder with tighter rotation and break. (45-55)
CH 84-85: Can parachute the pitch at times - could be plus. (50-65)

Twins, Liriano Come To Terms, Avoid Arbitration

A little over a week ago I wrote that I was confident the Twins were working on an extension for team ace Francisco Liriano. Then a couple days ago we learned via Seth Stohs, that the Twins had decided to go year-to-year with Liriano. Today, it's official - the team and it's ace have come to an agreement on a one year, 4.3m contract, 200k less than my 4.5m estimate. It's the second arbitration contract where the team and player have met in the exact middle of their two proposals.

In signing Liriano to a one year deal instead of trying to extend their ace, the Twins are protecting themselves from the risk associated with a long-term deal for a pitcher with one of baseball's more violent deliveries. They're also subjecting themselves to a fairly substantial risk of having to pay more for an extension should Liriano remain healthy and equally or even more effective which his peripherals suggest is a strong possibility. There's also a chance that Liriano, knowing he's just one year from a possible massive free agent payout could opt to eschew negotiations until after the 2012 season and instead test free agency.

The signing leaves Delmon Young as the last remaining arbitration candidate for the Twins or any other AL Central team. I'll have updated payroll information for all five teams once that signing is complete.

---

Corey Ettinger is a proud contributor to both 612Sports.net and 312Sports.com. He also provides extensive analysis of the American League Central Division at his own blog, AL Central In Focus.

Prospect Profile: Christian Colon

Christian Colon

Profile: 5'11" - 180lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 22


Tools:

• Hit: 40-60
• Power: 35-45
• Eye: 40-50
• Range:  55-65
• Hands: 60-65
• Arm: 60-60
• Run: 50-50

Prospect Profile: Adrian Salcedo

Adrian Salcedo

Profile: 6'4" - 175lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20


Repertoire:

FB 90-93: Late run, well commanded, could add velocity. (60-70)
SL 81-82: Too slurvy, but gets impressive movement, well commanded for his age. (45-65)
CV 75-77: Lacks ideal velocity, but gets good depth with 11/5 break, flashes plus. (45-65)
CH 83-84: Good late life, needs refinement. (50-60)

Prospect Profile: Jacob Turner

Jacob Turner

Profile: 6'5" - 210lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 20


Repertoire:

FB4 92-94: Straight but well commanded with plus velocity (60/65)
SNK 90-92: Good velocity, heavy sink, also well commanded (65/75)
CV 77-79: Inconsistent, but shows signs it could become a plus pitch with good 11/5 depth (55/70)
CH 83-84: Despite having good velocity differential, not as good as expected (50/60)

Prospect Profile: Carlos Gutierrez

Carlos Gutierrez

Profile: 6'3" - 205lbs - BT:R - TH:R - 2011 Age: 24

Repertoire:

• FB 94-95: A power sinker that generates massive GB rates, command issues. (65-70)
• SL: Consistency issues, doesn't get great lateral or vertical movement (50-55)
• CH: Show-me pitch (40-45)

Thanks

Writing a blog can be a lonely experience, especially when you're just starting out. I know that all too well having written here for almost exactly a year now, most days writing for no one but myself and maybe the occasional passer-by or friend. Lately however, I've had the very good fortune of getting some nice links from some friends of CiF. Those links have really helped pump some readership to my site and I deeply appreciate that.

I'd like to take a brief moment to thank some of those folks who have been helping to spread the good word about the work I've been doing here at Central In Focus.

First of all, to Kurt Mensching of Bless You Boys and Jesse Lund of Twinkie Town - two widely read blogs on the SB Nation network, thank you for your fanshots linking to my Daniel Fields interview, it was greatly appreciated and I look forward to delivering more. I'd also like to, thank Detroit Tigers Scorecard and K-Bro Baseball for your sidebar links to my site, they're much appreciated.

To anyone else out there who has helped bring readers to the site, thank you!

Twins Decide To Go Year-To-Year With Liriano

Almost exactly one week ago I wrote about what a possible Liriano extension would look like saying,

"I've mentioned more than once that the Twins are likely working on an extension with Francisco Liriano as we speak..."

White Sox Sign Lastings Milledge. Why I like it.

 In a move to shore up their outfield depth, the White Sox have announced they've inked former first round pick and top prospect Lastings Milledge to a Minor League contract that will pay him 500k while he's in the Majors. There are no incentives.

Milledge is a polarizing player; very talented, he was once ranked Baseball America's #9 overall prospect, scouts loved his athleticism, quick hands, and raw power. Unfortunately, as was so often the case with the horribly mismanaged Mets, he was rushed quickly through the Minor Leagues and after just two and a half seasons, found himself exposed to big league pitching at just 21 years of age. Not surprisingly, he got eaten alive.

White Sox, Alexei Ramirez Agree On Contract Extension

Quality shortstops are a precisous and rare commodity in baseball, and outside of the steroid era, they always have been. There were a total of just four shortstops with at least 4 WAR in 2010, 6 in 2009, and 4 in 2008 - and Hanley Ramirez was the only one to be worth at least 4 WAR in each of those seasons. So in the rare event that a team finds a player they feel can provide long-term production at anywhere near that level, it behooves them to do everything within their ability to do just that.

Royals Sign Pedro Feliz

The Royals have plenty of money to spend with the contracts of Zack Grienke and Gil Meche no longer on the books. Today the decided to spend a little bit of it to sign third baseman Pedro Feliz to a Minor League deal.. Feliz had some solid offensive seasons in 2003 and 2004 with the Giants, but his offensive game fell off a cliff thereafter and he hasn't posted an OPS over .710 since 2005. Given that he'll be 36 in 2011, there is also essentially zero chance he turns that around.

Feliz's calling card however has always been his defense. Indeed, he may have been the best defensive third baseman in the game between 2003 and 2007. His defense too has fallen off which is what's expected of someone as they head into their mid-to-late thirties. He's still a solid option at the position however and he can provide depth and maybe serve as a defensive mentor to top prospect Mike Moustakas.

Wilson Betemit remains the likely opening day starter for the 2011 season.

FutureFIP

I'm a huge fan of sabermetrics and by extension, I'm a huge fan of one of the fields greatest minds, Tom Tango. Tango is always positing new ideas at his blog, and today he toyed with the idea of something he called 'FutureFIP' (can we call it fFIP?) that is meant to be a better predictor of future performance than regular FIP/xFIP. As Tango notes, FIP was never meant to be a predictor of future performance, even though it does a decent enough job - certainly better than something like ERA.  

Anyways, it's worth checking out if you're a stat-head.

Royals Switch Wil Myers to Outfield

Wil Myers burst onto the prospect scene in 2010 with a monster season split between two levels of A ball and now the Royals have made a decision that should expedite the progress of his bat to the Major League level by switching him away from catcher. The concern for the Royals was that if they had left him at catcher, it would've taken at least three years for his defense - widely considered to be subpar - to be Major League ready. That time line could now potentially be moved to just one or two years depending on how successful he is in 2011. Moving Myers to the outfield will not only speed his progression to the Majors, it will also allow him to play more games, and therefor have a larger overall impact with his bat. Catchers generally need more rest than other players due to the demanding nature of the position, and they're also more susceptible to injury.

Prospect Profile: Cord Phelps

Cord Phelps

Profile: 6'2" - 200lbs - BT:S - TH:R - 2011 Age: 24


Tools:

• Hit: 55-65
• Power: 40-50
• Eye: 50-60
• Range:  60-65
• Hands: 65-70
• Arm: 55-60
• Run: 40-40

In His Own Words: Daniel Fields

Obviously I love what I do here at Central In Focus - I enjoy writing about/discussing/analyzing baseball and I think that over the past year and change I've gotten better at all of it. One thing I've always wanted to do however, was to get closer to the players themselves and to try and share that with my readers. With that in mind, I have what will be the first of many player question-and-answer pieces that you'll be seeing this spring.

I hope it makes an interesting new addition to everything else you'll find here, adding some thoughts from professional players to my analysis. A lot of the questions will be fun, some serious, and hopefully at least one or two that are enlightening.

Without further ado, our first player Q and A; Daniel Fields, ranked the 5th best prospect in the Tigers system by Baseball America, the 3rd best by ESPN's Keith Law (and most importantly, a fellow Ken Griffey Jr. fan). Enjoy!

Prospect Profile: Nick Hagadone

Nick Hagadone

Profile: 6'5" - 235lbs - BT:L - TH:L - 2011 Age: 25

Repertoire:

• FB 92-93: Has shown ability to work higher, but velocity was down somewhat in 2010. (55-70)
• SL 82-83: Flashes plus, needs to be more consistent. (65-70)
• CH 80-81: Same as slider. (60-65)

Prospect Profile: Charlie Furbush

Charlie Furbush

Profile: 6'5" - 215lbs - TH:L - BT:L - 2011 Age: 25


Repertoire:

• FB 90-91: Good fade, gets ground balls in the minors, probably wont be quite as successful at the MLB level. (60-60)
• SL 80-82: More vertical bite than horizontal run, should be strong vs lend effective against the split. (55-60)
• CV 75-76: A bit too loopy for my taste, but should be effective vs lefties. (60-60)
• CH 82-83: Gets decent depth. I believe this will end up being his best off-speed offering. (60-65)

Royals Sign Darwin Castillo

Not much to report here other than that the Royals have signed Darwin Castillo, a RHP out of the Dominican Prospect League. Unfortunately I don't have an age available on Castillo yet - I'll try and dig that up of course.

What I can tell you is that he's 6'5" 215lbs, and has a nice clean 3/4 delivery. He doesn't look like he repeats his motion with great consistency (hardly abnormal) but he clears his shoulder nicely and finishes cleanly - generating easy velocity. He also showed a curveball that humps a bit too early but with work could be a plus pitch if he can do a better job of working out front.

Overall, he LOOKS like he could be a decent prospect. Clean delivery, ideal size, the makings of a decent breaking ball... But we're going to have to see how old he is, and then follow him though at least one full season before we can even begin to start projecting him.

Prospect Profile: Jose Ortega

Jose Ortega

Profile: 5'11" - 170lbs - TH:R - BT:R - 2011 Age: 22


Repertoire:

• FB 94-95: Too straight, inconsistent delivery decreases command. (60-65)

• SL 81-85: Can hump the pitch. Needs more consistent tight rotation. Could add velocity with refinement. (50-60)

Rays Claim Rob Delaney and Thoughts on Stats vs Scouting

A few days ago when the Twins announced they had claimed lefty Dusty Hughes from the Royals, I was surprised to see they had chosen to designate reliever Rob Delaney for assignment to make room for Hughes.

Prospect Profile: Anthony Carter

Anthony Carter

Profile: 6'3" - 180lbs - TH:R - BT:L - 2011 Age: 25



Repertoire:
• FB4 93-94: Some lateral movement. (50-55)
• SL 83-84: Legitimate plus pitch, good depth, useful against left and right. (60-65)
• CH 85-86: Very good fade vs lefties, I think the pitch is MLB ready now. Would like to see him utilize it more. (55-60)

Prospect Profile: Santos Rodriguez

Santos Rodriguez

Profile: 6'5" - 180lbs - Th:L - BT:L - 2011 Age: 23


Repertoire And Grades:

- FB4 95-96: Flat with inconsistent command (50-60)
- FB2 93-94: Average arm-side run, ground-ball neutral. Inconsistent command. (50-55)
- SL 87-88: Flashes plus with good run, could improve depth. Needs to be more consistent. (50-55)
- CH: 86-87: Needs significant refinement. Poor arm speed, lacks movement or consistent command. (25-35)

Prospect Profile: Gregory Infante

Lost in the disappointing finish to the White Sox 2010 season was the debut of the hard throwing, young right-hander Gregory Infante. Infante is hardly a big-name prospect, but in a season where the White Sox could struggle to find pitching depth in their bullpen behind closer Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain, and Sergio Santos, he could prove to be an integral part of their 2011 plans.

Prospect Profile: Jason Kipnis

I'm a firm believer that Luis Valbuena will prove to be a league average or slightly better second baseman with time. I also believe the Indians front office is on the same wave-length. Yet at some point in the very near future, Valbuena is going to need to begin winning over converts, because right behind him at AAA will be Jason Kipnis.

Twins Acquire Dusty Hughes Off Waivers From Royals

It was just five days ago that I wrote about the Royals designating Dusty Hughes for assignment. At the time I said that I expected Hughes to accept the assignment given the Royals. Kansas City was a good fit for Hughes, a pitcher who is essentially a replacement-level reliever because their bullpen is bad enough that he'd almost certainly get another chance at some point in 2011.

Using Sabermetrics To Project A Hitters Performance - Part 1

I've already written about BABIP as it pertains to pitchers in this piece, touching on the concept of .300 - and how pitchers with BABIP marks either above or below it could be consider either lucky, or unlucky. BABIP works in a similar with hitters, and .300 should still be your waterline, but unlike pitchers, hitters have more control over their BABIP, because they have more control over how a ball is struck, whereas a pitcher generally has very little (and none directly). Today I'll try and explain how you can use BABIP, in conjunction with other metrics like LD%, GB%, FB%, K%, and BB% to project a hitters future performance.

Before we can get to the point of doing the actual projections however, we need to go over some important concepts.

Prognosticating A Liriano Extension

I've mentioned more than once that the Twins are likely working on an extension with Francisco Liriano (and quite likely Delmon Young) as we speak (ok, not as we speak, because you're reading this... but you know what I mean). It's only logical after all. In 2010 Liriano was one of baseball's best pitchers, and clearly the ace of the Twins staff. His velocity was back and once again he was making hitters look foolish, showing that he was nearly all the way back to his 2006 form.

Twins, Slowey Agree On One Year Deal, Avoid Arbitration

This even the Minnesota Twins announced that they and starting pitcher (for the time being) Kevin Slowey have agreed on a one year deal, avoiding arbitration in his first year of eligibility. With Slowey seeking 3.1m in arbitration and the Twins offering 2.3, they met in the middle and agreed on a 2.7m pact that comes in 200k above my 2.5m estimate.

The Perplexing Luis Valbuena

When the Indians traded outfielder Franklyn Gutierrez to the Mariners for Luis Valbuena, the hope was that they were acquiring a player who could potentially lock down the right side of their double play combination for years to come. Valbuena was a player who has already shown himself to be capable of hitting in the upper levels of the minor leagues, posting a .864 OPS in AA and a .756 OPS in AAA in his split 2008 season with the Mariners.

Tigers Complete Galarraga Trade, Acquire Two Minor League Pitchers From Diamondbacks

When the Tigers designated Armando Galarraga for assignment, it was pretty clear his time with the team was over. Obviously he wasn't going to clear waivers because he's the sort of pitcher who you could pencil in the #5 spot in about half the rotations in baseball. Someone would've made room for him.

Of course, his status as a capable back-end starter also gave him value as a trade target for any of the teams that would've placed a waiver claim. Despite my vehement opposition, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski clearly felt as though the options he had internally, be it Andrew Oliver or Charlie Furbush, would be adequate in the event that one of his five opening day starters became injured or proved ineffective. And so Galarraga immediately became trade bait.

Up and Coming Third Basemen: Part 5

Over the past two days we've gotten to take a plunge into Jonathan Mayo's list of the Top-10 Third Base Prospects for 2011. It's stacked with AL Central talent with a representative from every team. So far we've profiled the Tigers Nick Castellanos (#10), the Twins Miguel Sano (#5), the White Sox Brent Morel (#3), and the Indians Lonnie Chisenhall (#2). It's been a fun series to do and should give hope for the future of the hot corner to every fan base.

Now of course, it's time for the top third base prospect in baseball;

Mike Moustakas

Up and Coming Third Basemen: Part 4

Yesterday we got the ball rolling on our latest series here at AL Central In Focus, a look into Jonathan Mayo's list of the Top 10 third base prospects for 2011. We've already profiled the Tigers Nick Castellanos (#10), the Twins Miguel Sano (#5), and the White Sox Brent Morel (#3).

The first two players were 18 and 17 years old respectively last year, and despite having raw talent in spades, are a long ways from the Majors. The third player on the list, Morel, has the makings of a solid everyday player who will provide high end, and maybe even elite level defense.

The last two players on this list however are cats of a rarer breed. They possess multiple refined skills without clear weaknesses and have demonstrated the ability to succeed in the high minors. They are both very projectable and highly talented and could challenge for all-star teams. With that in mind, lets delve into into a diamond in the Cleveland rough;

Lonnie Chisenhall

Butler Extension, Details Finally Revealed

Quick little update here, Billy Butler's recent extension with the Royals is for four years with a team option on a fifth year. They also decided to structure the contract a little unusually. Butler will get 3m in 2011, and then 8m per year for the next three. Typically teams will give players yearly raises in contracts covering arbitration seasons, but instead the Royals will take the cost savings later. Not a bad idea with almost no payroll concerns in the foreseeable future. His 2015 option is for a team friendly 12.5m.

Very nice deal.

Up and Coming Third Basemen: Part 3

Earlier today I kicked of our newest series here at Central In Focus, a review of MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo's list of his top-10 third base prospects for 2011. We've already examined two very young, very raw, and very talented prospects - the Tigers Nick Castellanos (#10) and the Twins Miguel Sano (#5). The only players left now are the three players Mayo identifies as the best third base prospects in all of baseball and they're all AL Central players.

Giggity.

Continuing the theme of working from the bottom of the list to the top I'm pleased to present my thoughts on talented White Sox prospect;

Brent Morel

Up and Coming Third Basemen: Part 2

We kicked off our examination of the AL Central's phenomenally impressive corps of talented young third basemen already with a look into Tigers top prospect Nick Castellanos, who MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo had listed as his 10th best third base prospect in all of baseball. Moving on in our countdown we'll be looking at the next prospect on his list;

Miguel Sano

Up and Coming Third Basemen: Part 1

Last year when I started Central In Focus, one of the first series I ran covered the American League Central's quartet of promising young catchers. I wrote about Alex Avila of the Tigers, Tyler Flowers of the White Sox, Wilson Ramos of the Twins, Carlos Santana of the Indians. And I never even mentioned the Royals Wil Myers who exploded onto the mega-prospect scene after demolishing two levels of A ball during the 2010 campaign in his introduction to full season baseball.

One year later Santana appears to be headed for the stardom that so many expected, and no one would be surprised to see Ramos win the opening day job in Washington after his mid-season trade. Avila remains a platoon option at catcher for the Tigers and with Victor Martinez's presence, that's unlikely to change for the next year or two. Flowers unfortunately saw his persistent problems with strikeouts catch up to him at AAA this year. He remains a prospect but will need to make fundamental improvements to his offensive game if he's ever to become a viable Major League backstop.

This year the Central heads toward 2010 sporting another impressive area of strength, this time at third base. A recent MLB.com article listing their Top-10 third base prospects had the top three spots, four of the top five, and five of the top ten filled with AL Central talent. It's an incredibly impressive layout and all five Central teams are represented. It only seems right that such a talented group of players deserves the same kind of coverage the catchers got last year. Just like last year I'm going to go ahead and run through the five players, in reverse order by the rankings given in the MLB.com article.

Nick Castellanos

The Armando Galarraga Fiasco And My Outrage With Dave Dombrowski Over It

This isn't how Armando Galarraga thought it would be as a kid.

Coming off a disappointing 2009 season, Galarraga opened 2010 in the minors but was up by mid-May when injuries and ineffectiveness necessitated his presence. After three uninspired starts to open his year, Galarraga had just 12 innings with six earned runs allowed to show for himself. Then for one night in early June, he was perfect - too bad Jim Joyce wasn't. To Galarraga's credit he handled the disappointment better than just about anyone could've. For my part, I was literally screaming at my TV, gesticulating wildly with my arms, pounding my fists... I was a belligerent mess.

Galarraga just smiled.

Fast forward seven months and everything has turned on it's head. First, the Tigers signed Brad Penny to a one year deal with incentives. Then Galarraga was signed, and then six hours later, designated for assignment. And once again, I'm a belligerent mess.

Royals Extend Billy Butler

Earlier this morning the Royals announced that they had extended first baseman Billy Butler to a four year extension, buying out all of his arbitration seasons along with his first year of free agency. The fact that these next four years will comprise the best part of Butler's peak year (his age 25-28 seasons) this deal looks very good and barring injury, is a near lock to be a great value.

The Baseball Doldrums

We've pretty much officially reached baseball's version of purgatory. That time between the beginning of the off season when free agent speculation is rampant and each team's fanbase is wondering what toys their Franchise's GM will stuff their proverbial baseball stockings with, and the start of spring training.

At this point, essentially every major free agent is off the board already and most teams have completed all of their internal arbitration signings. Most of what needs to be done between now and then is more subdermal. Teams will be scanning the waiver wire and making minor league signings to add depth in positions of need. There may be a couple minor trades. But for the most part, the action is over. At least for the teams.

For writers like me on the other hand, it's time to begin the grueling process of analyzing where each team stands now that the dust has (mostly) settled. With that in mind, I'm here to let you know that while the action phase of the off season may be over I'll still be cranking out all kinds of new content to keep up with your need to have your baseball craving constantly satisfied.

Over the next couple months my goal is to create projections for every player I expect to be on the 25-man roster. I'll also be examining the key Minor Leaguers who are most likely to have an impact on your squads success in the upcoming season and analyzing all of the most important spring training battles. Furthermore, you can expect to see me continue churning out content on my recently started Sabermetrics Explained series where I [attempt] to explain a lot of the key components of my analysis and how they work together to help provide a clearer view of a players talent and likely impact in the future.

For now, just sit tight and try and stay warm. Ideally do it with a hot dog and some homemade nachos. Maybe put in some DVD highlights from last year. But whatever you do, please for the love of God, don't do it in a Snuggie. That's really all I ask.

Baseball is coming folks. I promise, this is all going to get a lot better really soon.

White Sox Claim Philip Humber

Philip Humber is becoming quite the AL Central traveling man. After stops in Minnesota and Kansas City, he's now a member of the White Sox (after a brief one month stop with the A's this winter). It's hard to believe, but Humber was once an immensely talented prospect who was the 3rd overall pick in the 2004 draft. Tommy John surgery has long since diminished those skills, but he's hung around and will now be joining his 5th Major League organization.

Gil Meche Announces Retirement

This one came out of left field.

When the Royals announced their signing of Gil Meche prior to the start of the 2007 season, it came as a  bit of a shock. The team had just gotten done losing 100 games and were nowhere near competing for a .500 record, to say nothing of a playoff berth or a World Series title. So signing a a pitcher who's ERA the past three years had been 5.01, 5.09, and 4.48 to 55 million dollar deal spanning five seasons was a stunning layout.

Royals Designate Dusty Hughes For Assignment

In order to clear room on the 40-man roster, the Royals have designated left handed reliever Dusty Hughes for assignment. Hughes has been decent in his brief tenure in the Majors. In parts of two seasons he's totaled 70.1 innings with a 4.09 ERA though his 4.28 FIP and certainly his 5.18 xFIP suggest he's been at least a little on the lucky side.  Hughes hasn't demonstrated a clear platoon advantage against lefties in his Major League career and therefor is unlikely to find a spot with another team as a LOOGY.

It's not a sure thing, but my guess would be that Hughes will end up accepting the assignment and pitch at AAA until an opening comes about in 2011. I had him as a member of the Royals opening day bullpen and I'm not 100% certain who will be replacing him yet. We'll let that sort itself out as we get closer to opening day.

The Luck Dragon Revealed: BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB Explained

In my post discussing the Carl Pavano signing I made reference to a lot of concepts that fans of the game might not understand if they haven't kept up with some of the new-wave statistics that have come into fashion over the past decade.

While I've already written a primer explaining the concept of fielding independent pitching, in the Pavano post I used a number of other metrics - BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB rate - as well. While I did try to explain some of those things within that post, as long as I'm creating a series explaining different sabermetric concepts, it strikes me that this is logical next piece to go with.
 

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) Explained

After what was a crushing day of writing for me yesterday, what with 9 AL Central players agreeing to new contracts before heading to arbitration, a shocking retirement announcement from the Royals, and a baffling signing-followed-by-designation from the Tigers - today is about as slow as it gets.

With that in mind, what better thing to do than kick off a series I have been meaning to do for some time. Today I'll begin posting a series of articles explaining all of the statistics you see in my articles. Some people might be familiar with them, but I'd like to give anyone that isn't an easy an intuitive guide that explains what the different metrics (stats) are. What they mean, how they work, and why they might be better than some of the more traditional reference points you're used to.

Twins Finally Sign Carl Pavano And A Closer Look At How Luck Effects A Pitchers Peformance

After a month and change of, "they're close," the Twins and starting pitcher Carl Pavano have finally agreed on a two-year pact that will pay the pitcher 16.5m. Pavano's performance in 2010 was his best since his 2005 campaign that propelled him to a four year forty million dollar deal with the Yankees. His 4.02 FIP suggests his 3.75 ERA was a tad bit lucky, but hardly beyond the bounds of the margin of error. And now, after posting FIP marks of 4.00 and 4.02 the past two seasons it can be reasonably assured of the pitcher Pavano is today.

Indians Payroll Estimate #3

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that position, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

Shin-Soo Choo Reaches Agreement

Indians star right fielder Shin-Soo Choo agreed yesterday to a one year deal worth 3.995m during his first season of arbitration eligibility. Choo has been one of baseball's absolute best (and most under appreciated) players over the past two seasons, totaling 10.6 WAR. He's also been incredibly consistent posting near identical triple-slash lines in 2009 and 2010:

2009: .300/.394/.489 - 20HR - 86 RBI - 21SB
2010: .300/.401/.484 - 22HR - 90 RBI - 22SB

Arbitration Signings 1/18, Post #2

When I wrote these words, "The signings to avoid arbitration have been coming fast and furious the last few days, and that's likely to continue for a few more days.." this morning I had no clue how prescient that would be.

That's because I somehow forgot that today is the deadline for such deals without actually going through the ugly process of exchanging arbitration figures. It's not yet 3pm here in the Central and already we've had nine signings. I wrote about the first six here. By my count there are seven players remaining who've yet to sign deals, four of whom are on the Twins. It would appear that the White Sox, and Tigers have completed their deals, and the Royals have only to Billy Butler remaining on their to-do list.

White Sox Payroll Estimate #4

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

Arbitration Signings 1/18

The signings to avoid arbitration have been coming fast and furious the last few days, and that's likely to continue for a few more days. We had a bevy of signing the past few days, but instead of addressing them each with their own article, I'll simply do them as a group. Of course, I reserve the right to diverge from that...

Tigers Payroll Estimate #4

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

Royals Payroll Estimate #3

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

Indians Payroll Estimate #2

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that position, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

Twins Payroll Estimate #3

This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.

The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.

An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close. 

Two More Arbitration Deals

Yesterday we discussed arbitration deals recently handed out to Alexi Casilla, Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, and Asdrubal Cabrera. But they aren't the only ones to have locked in new deals. The Tigers came to terms yesterday with Armando Galarraga and the the Royals brought back Robinson Tejada.

- I spent some time discussing Galarraga's future with the Tigers in the wake of the recent signing of Brad Penny. I had projected Galarraga at 1.5m in my most recent Tigers Payroll Estimate, so to see him sign for 2.3m has to be considered a win for him and his agent. It's a tad surprising given the signing of Penny that GM Dave Dombrowski wasn't able to utilize that leverage a bit better in negotiations.

Galarraga contributed 144 innings for the Tigers in 2010 with a 4.49 ERA that bested his FIP projections by about half a run. He's thrown at least 143 innings in each of the past three seasons but with the presence of Penny likely pushing him out of the rotation at the beginning of the year, there's a good chance he wont meet that mark in 2011.

- Tejada will be entering his seventh season in the league and in this, his final arbitration season is set to earn 1.55m, essentially identical to the 1.5m I had him projected for in the most recent Royals Payroll Estimate.

He's been the picture of consistency the last two seasons with the Royals, posting identical 3.54 ERAs and FIP marks of 3.59 and 3.60 respectively, and they're certainly hoping for more of the same. Tejada has the ability to miss bats, averaging almost exactly a strikeout per inning the last two years but can also get himself into trouble with walks with a career 5.03 walk rate. It should be noted however that he posted his best walk rate of his career in 2010 with a 3.84 mark. Unfortunately, the fly-ball prone pitcher was at his worst in that department, getting inducing ground balls on just 27.8% of balls in play.

As long as Tejada can keep missing bats at a high rate and either limit his walks or keep the ball in the yard, neither of which are a sure thing given his career track record, he'll be successful. But despite the strength of his past two seasons, there is always the possibility those two areas of concern could pair up and he could struggle as a result. If he can prevent that however, he'll once again be a useful option for the Royals in the 7th and 8th innings.