The Twins moved aggressive during the 2009-2010 off season to shore up weaknesses in the middle infield as they had struggled mightily to get production from those positions. First, GM Bill Smith moved quickly to pry JJ Hardy away from the Brewers for Carlos Gomez. Then he played the waiting game and came away with Orlando Hudson at a reasonable price.
While both Hudson and Hardy struggled throughout the year with injuries and didn't come close to realizing their full offensive potential, the layout proved beneficial as the Twins, with help from those two additions, vaulted to 94 wins in 2010. Now a year later the team will watch as Hudson departs via free agency and the decision on what to do with Hardy becomes complicated.
In an attempt to create some stability, the Twins placed their bid for NPB League MVP Tsuyoshi Nishioka. On November 26th came up the winners of the exclusive negotiation rights when the Chiba Lotte Marines accepted the Twins 5.6m bid. That gave the Twins a 30 day time frame to complete a deal with Nishioka. Should they be unable to complete the deal, the bid would be refunded.
As a general rule of thumb, players tend to sign contracts that are generally in line with their bids. Diasuke Matsuzaka signed a 50m deal after a winning bid of 51.1m, for example. Expectations are that the Twins should eventually be able to agree on a deal of around 3y/9m. Such a deal would secure Nishioka through his age 29 season.
Nishioka is regarded as a good defensive player at both shortstop and second base with good range and a solid/average arm, though more than one source has speculated that his arm would play better at second than short in the Majors. He does struggle with errors, but that should be more than made up for by his above average range. And, as long as Hardy is with the Twins (and that might not be for much longer) he'll almost certainly be slotted in at second.
Offensively Nishioka is harder to peg. There has been much talk about the fact that he topped Ichiro's single-season hit record, but little mention of his past as an injury plagued league average player. At his best, he's a player who will hit for solid averages, draw some walks, steal some bases, and slap the ball around while using the gaps for his extra base power. He does have enough power to project for a handful of home runs, but the elongated leg kick that he and so many other Japanese players utilize doesn't translate well to the Major Leagues and it's likely he'll need to drop that, which could diminish his power further. Think, .300/.375/.425 - .800.
The problem is that Japanese players, outside of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui, have struggled to translate their offensive talents at the Major League level. Couple that with the fact that, until last year, Nishioka was a fairly average player who struggled to stay healthy and there is some legitimate downside. He could certainly wash out the way a much more accomplished Kaz Matsui did and prove to be nothing more than an error prone, low OPS second baseman.
Thankfully from the Twins perspective, they won't be paying him like a legitimate star. Rather, they'll be paying him like a replacement-level free agent, so the downside with his contract is pretty minimal and the upside - that he hits .275/.350/.400 or better - is significant. Should Nishioka be able to translate his offensive game to the States, he could easily prove to be a 3.0 WAR player and an extremely cost effective option at a premium position.
Odds are of course, that he falls somewhere in between and, for a million less than the Twins gave Nick Punto last year, they get all the production and more.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Saying Goodbye To Bobby Jenks
The Angels knew they had something special in the big kid. He threw 100MPH+ and his flashed two solid/plus breaking pitches. Guys like that didn't just grow on trees. But he was also a walking injury and a pain-in-the-ass to deal with it. After four seasons of it, the Angels were done and, following the 2004 season, they unceremoniously designated Bobby Jenks for assignment. Not surprisingly, Kenny Williams was waiting.
After being picked up by the White Sox Jenks quickly made his debut in the Majors the following season at age 24 by pitching in 32 games. He began as a setup man for Dustin Hermansen on a team that would go on to win the World Series, but quickly moved up and by seasons end had recorded the first six saves of his career and by the end of the season was the teams closer. In the playoffs he managed to convery four of his five opportunities and capped a remarkable rookie year by getting the final out of their World Championship season.
Not a bad way to introduce yourself to the hometown fans.
During those early years Jenks fastball was amongst the best in baseball. His rookie year his fastball sat at an average of 97.0MPH and he pumped it up as high as 102 in a game. He paired that with a tight slider and a hard fall-off-the-table curveball at 83-84 that was simply unfair. He used that combination to rank up K rates of 10.74 during his first two seasons while getting groundballs on over half his balls in play. Despite some wildness - he walked 3.8/9IP those first two seasons - the combination of high strikeouts and groundballs was perfect for the closers role and he converted 47 of his 53 opportunities.
Unfortunately in 2008, Jenks would suffer a shoulder injury and he never full recovered. His fastball velocity, which had already begun to decline the previous season was down to 93.8MPH and his curve didn't have the same bite it used to. Jenks began using his slider more and while it may have saved wear-and-tear on his arm, it was never as effective of a pitch as his curveball.
But even through all the arm trouble, the injuries, and his declining raw stuff, Jenks managed to get the job done. That is, until 2010 when he was plagued by nagging pain to his back, his calf, and his forearm (in no particular order). An inflated ERA, some ugly blown saves, and persistently negative commentary from Manager Ozzie Guillen left his closers role in doubt.
What was surprising in all of this is that 2010 may have been his best season in terms of rate stats. His 10.42K/9 was the second best of his career, his 3.30 BB/9 was just a tick above his career average of 2.90, and his 58.3% GB rate was the second best mark of his career as well. Adding on to that, he had recovered some of his lost fastball velocity, checking in at an average of 95mph - the hardest he'd thrown since 2006.
That said, Jenks' stuff simply isn't what it used to be. Particularly his curveball and slider which have each declined.mSadly Jenks' injuries, coupled with his difficulty in closing out games and his approaching final year of arbitration, where he'd have been likely to have earned 9m or more (after earning 7.5m in his second arb. season), spelled the end for Jenks' time in the South Side. On December 2nd the White declined to offer arbitration and Jenks officially became a free agent for the first time in his career.
Who will close out games for the White Sox in 2011 remains to be seen. But one would assume that Matt Thornton would be the presumptive favorite. We'll talk about that more as spring approaches, but for now, we'll bid farewell to Bobby Jenks.
After being picked up by the White Sox Jenks quickly made his debut in the Majors the following season at age 24 by pitching in 32 games. He began as a setup man for Dustin Hermansen on a team that would go on to win the World Series, but quickly moved up and by seasons end had recorded the first six saves of his career and by the end of the season was the teams closer. In the playoffs he managed to convery four of his five opportunities and capped a remarkable rookie year by getting the final out of their World Championship season.
Not a bad way to introduce yourself to the hometown fans.
During those early years Jenks fastball was amongst the best in baseball. His rookie year his fastball sat at an average of 97.0MPH and he pumped it up as high as 102 in a game. He paired that with a tight slider and a hard fall-off-the-table curveball at 83-84 that was simply unfair. He used that combination to rank up K rates of 10.74 during his first two seasons while getting groundballs on over half his balls in play. Despite some wildness - he walked 3.8/9IP those first two seasons - the combination of high strikeouts and groundballs was perfect for the closers role and he converted 47 of his 53 opportunities.
Unfortunately in 2008, Jenks would suffer a shoulder injury and he never full recovered. His fastball velocity, which had already begun to decline the previous season was down to 93.8MPH and his curve didn't have the same bite it used to. Jenks began using his slider more and while it may have saved wear-and-tear on his arm, it was never as effective of a pitch as his curveball.
But even through all the arm trouble, the injuries, and his declining raw stuff, Jenks managed to get the job done. That is, until 2010 when he was plagued by nagging pain to his back, his calf, and his forearm (in no particular order). An inflated ERA, some ugly blown saves, and persistently negative commentary from Manager Ozzie Guillen left his closers role in doubt.
What was surprising in all of this is that 2010 may have been his best season in terms of rate stats. His 10.42K/9 was the second best of his career, his 3.30 BB/9 was just a tick above his career average of 2.90, and his 58.3% GB rate was the second best mark of his career as well. Adding on to that, he had recovered some of his lost fastball velocity, checking in at an average of 95mph - the hardest he'd thrown since 2006.
That said, Jenks' stuff simply isn't what it used to be. Particularly his curveball and slider which have each declined.mSadly Jenks' injuries, coupled with his difficulty in closing out games and his approaching final year of arbitration, where he'd have been likely to have earned 9m or more (after earning 7.5m in his second arb. season), spelled the end for Jenks' time in the South Side. On December 2nd the White declined to offer arbitration and Jenks officially became a free agent for the first time in his career.
Who will close out games for the White Sox in 2011 remains to be seen. But one would assume that Matt Thornton would be the presumptive favorite. We'll talk about that more as spring approaches, but for now, we'll bid farewell to Bobby Jenks.
Monday, December 6, 2010
White Sox Sign Adam Dunn
Kenny Williams strikes again. It has been common knowledge around the league that the White Sox have been in pursuit of Adam Dunn for some time and Kenny finally got his man. Williams has a way of making deals appear virtually out of thin air and this is no exception. While we all knew that Williams and the White Sox tried - and failed - to swing a deal with the Nationals for the slugger at the trade deadline last year, there had been little to no news on that front so far this off season. So when the news came that a deal was in place it surprised me a bit. Not because I didn't consider the possibility of Dunn coming to the Sox, but rather because it happened so fast.
When I ran down the payroll situation of the White Sox at the outset of this years off season, I knew Williams was going to have his hands full trying to improve his club enough to leapfrog the Twins while having little money to work. With and some tough positions to fill, even with the expected non-tendering of closer Bobby Jenks, money was still going to be tight. Thankfully, the deep pockets of owner Jerry Reinsdorf appear to be giving Williams a little extra wiggle room.
Payroll constraints not withstanding, one area that seemed almost certain to be addressed was designated hitter, where the White Sox received horrible production after a failed experiment at signing light hitting position players to man a position where hitting is the only job.
By signing Dunn to a 4 year 56 million dollar deal the White Sox have ensured that they'll have one of the games pre-eminent power hitters in the middle of their lineup for years to come. Though, much like with the signing of Victor Martinez in Detroit, they'll be getting Dunn for the tail end of his prime and the beginning of his decline phase as he'll be 32 in 2011. Of course, all players age differently and there is nothing to say that Dunn wont produce the best numbers of his career while in Chicago. Dunn could provide a fantastic complement to the right handed Paul Konerko, should the White be able to bring him back (more on that later) - or anchor a lineup all on his own should a deal not be able to be worked out.
One of the most prolific home run hitters in the game today - and one of it's most prolific strikeout artists (32.8% for his career!) - Dunn is the definition of a all-or-nothing swinger. Of his 145 hits last year, 76 went for extra bases. Dunn is going to swing and miss a lot, that's just a fact of life, but when he doesn't miss, he has a tendency to hit the ball very, very hard. Of course, it's not just Dunn's power that makes him valuable, he's also one of the games best at taking a walk (I guess the thought of a strike being hit 450 feet will entice guys to nibble a bit more than normal). His power/on-base combination have made him one of the games best, and most consistent offensive forces as he has posted an OPS of .890 or better in six of the past seven seasons.
Of course, we also know that Dunn has his faults. There are the strikeouts of course, but there is plenty of debate as to just how much worse a strikeout is than another sort of out - or if it's worse at all. So I'll leave the relevance of that particular aspect of his game to your own judgment. Because of the strikeouts, Dunn isn't going to hit for average, but thankfully to say, he takes all those walks which still allows him to be an on-base machine. What isn't debatable is the fact that playing Dunn at any position is a serious hazard to health of your pitchers ERA's. After five straight seasons with a mind-boggling -23 UZR/150 (AT LEAST!!!) or worse at first base, Dunn showed some improvement during the past year, but it's likely that's just noise. And, in left field he's really no better.
He's so bad in fact that playing him in the field regularly forces him to lose a massive amount of his value. In 2009, for instance, despite posting a .928 OPS (good for a 4.1 oWAR according to Baseball-reference) was worth a -3.2 dWAR. So in the end, his value - at least according to WAR, was just barely above average. While that's an extreme example (his dWAR has never approached those numbers again) he's fairly consistently cost his team significantly on the field.
Thankfully to say, the White Sox play in the American League where they can bury his glove at DH. Initially Dunn had been hesitant to accept a role with a team that would use him as a designated hitter (probably because it lowers a players value as a free agent by a good amount), but it appears he's come around. If the White Sox can avoid deploying Dunn in their defensive rotation as much as possible, it's likely that he'll be worth a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR for at least the first 2-3 years of his contract. If so, this could be a brilliant deal for the White Sox. But if Ozzie Guillen should, for some reason, insist on playing Dunn in the field, this could just as easily become a disaster.
If we assume that Dunn can be worth at least 3.0 WAR per year, an easily attainable goal provided good health and minimal time playing defense, he'd be worth a minimum of around 51m. That's close enough to even money for a free agent signing for it to be considered a success. And really, 3.0 WAR as a DH is probably his downside. If he can produce the way he has throughout his career he should easily be worth more. At the likely rate of around 4.0 WAR, he'll be worth 68m - a number that would easily eclipse what the White Sox will be paying him.
If properly utilized, Dunn should provide a legitimate middle-of-the-order run-producing bat for the next four years who can help mash the White Sox back to the post season in homer-friendly US Cellular. He could also prove to be something even more rare - a free agent steal.
When I ran down the payroll situation of the White Sox at the outset of this years off season, I knew Williams was going to have his hands full trying to improve his club enough to leapfrog the Twins while having little money to work. With and some tough positions to fill, even with the expected non-tendering of closer Bobby Jenks, money was still going to be tight. Thankfully, the deep pockets of owner Jerry Reinsdorf appear to be giving Williams a little extra wiggle room.
Payroll constraints not withstanding, one area that seemed almost certain to be addressed was designated hitter, where the White Sox received horrible production after a failed experiment at signing light hitting position players to man a position where hitting is the only job.
By signing Dunn to a 4 year 56 million dollar deal the White Sox have ensured that they'll have one of the games pre-eminent power hitters in the middle of their lineup for years to come. Though, much like with the signing of Victor Martinez in Detroit, they'll be getting Dunn for the tail end of his prime and the beginning of his decline phase as he'll be 32 in 2011. Of course, all players age differently and there is nothing to say that Dunn wont produce the best numbers of his career while in Chicago. Dunn could provide a fantastic complement to the right handed Paul Konerko, should the White be able to bring him back (more on that later) - or anchor a lineup all on his own should a deal not be able to be worked out.
One of the most prolific home run hitters in the game today - and one of it's most prolific strikeout artists (32.8% for his career!) - Dunn is the definition of a all-or-nothing swinger. Of his 145 hits last year, 76 went for extra bases. Dunn is going to swing and miss a lot, that's just a fact of life, but when he doesn't miss, he has a tendency to hit the ball very, very hard. Of course, it's not just Dunn's power that makes him valuable, he's also one of the games best at taking a walk (I guess the thought of a strike being hit 450 feet will entice guys to nibble a bit more than normal). His power/on-base combination have made him one of the games best, and most consistent offensive forces as he has posted an OPS of .890 or better in six of the past seven seasons.
Of course, we also know that Dunn has his faults. There are the strikeouts of course, but there is plenty of debate as to just how much worse a strikeout is than another sort of out - or if it's worse at all. So I'll leave the relevance of that particular aspect of his game to your own judgment. Because of the strikeouts, Dunn isn't going to hit for average, but thankfully to say, he takes all those walks which still allows him to be an on-base machine. What isn't debatable is the fact that playing Dunn at any position is a serious hazard to health of your pitchers ERA's. After five straight seasons with a mind-boggling -23 UZR/150 (AT LEAST!!!) or worse at first base, Dunn showed some improvement during the past year, but it's likely that's just noise. And, in left field he's really no better.
He's so bad in fact that playing him in the field regularly forces him to lose a massive amount of his value. In 2009, for instance, despite posting a .928 OPS (good for a 4.1 oWAR according to Baseball-reference) was worth a -3.2 dWAR. So in the end, his value - at least according to WAR, was just barely above average. While that's an extreme example (his dWAR has never approached those numbers again) he's fairly consistently cost his team significantly on the field.
Thankfully to say, the White Sox play in the American League where they can bury his glove at DH. Initially Dunn had been hesitant to accept a role with a team that would use him as a designated hitter (probably because it lowers a players value as a free agent by a good amount), but it appears he's come around. If the White Sox can avoid deploying Dunn in their defensive rotation as much as possible, it's likely that he'll be worth a consistent 3.5-4.0 WAR for at least the first 2-3 years of his contract. If so, this could be a brilliant deal for the White Sox. But if Ozzie Guillen should, for some reason, insist on playing Dunn in the field, this could just as easily become a disaster.
If we assume that Dunn can be worth at least 3.0 WAR per year, an easily attainable goal provided good health and minimal time playing defense, he'd be worth a minimum of around 51m. That's close enough to even money for a free agent signing for it to be considered a success. And really, 3.0 WAR as a DH is probably his downside. If he can produce the way he has throughout his career he should easily be worth more. At the likely rate of around 4.0 WAR, he'll be worth 68m - a number that would easily eclipse what the White Sox will be paying him.
If properly utilized, Dunn should provide a legitimate middle-of-the-order run-producing bat for the next four years who can help mash the White Sox back to the post season in homer-friendly US Cellular. He could also prove to be something even more rare - a free agent steal.
Tigers Ink Catcher Victor martinez
With a need in the bullpen addressed by the signing of reliever Joaquin Benoit earlier, Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski turned his attention to solidifying a catchers position that was amongst the worst in the league offensively in 2010. To do so, he signed none other than Victor Martinez, hands down the bet option available among this seasons crop of free agent catchers. While we can debate the overall value of Martinez as a catcher and how he will fit in with the 2011 Tigers (and we will, at length!) it’s safe to say that the acquisition of Martinez will, at a minimum, make the the Tigers often punchless lineup last season, much more formidable for the foreseeable future.
First, lets break down the contract. At four years, and fifty million dollars - the Tigers will be acquiring Martinez for what is likely to be the beginning of the decline phase of his career. Ideally, you’d probably like to give Martinez, 33 in late December, maybe just three years as catchers (and most players in general) tend to decline offensive at a pretty steep rate after age 34-35. But given the scarcity of good hitting catchers, combined with the Tigers general lack of offense, and the fact that Martinez will likely spend a good amount of time at designated hitter - the contract has an above average chance at being worthwhile in my opinion.
Over the past four full seasons, Martinez has been worth 4.5 (2007), 0.6 (2008), 4.7 (2009), and 3.0 WAR (2010) - using our standard rate of 4.25m per win, he’s been worth a total 54.4m during those three seasons. Of course, his 2008 was mostly lost due to injury, and that’s worth at least noting.
Given the fact that hose four seasons were essentially the back-end of his prime, and he’ll be 33 at the outset of this contract, it’s unlikely that he duplicates that level of value - but he doesn’t need to in order to justify his deal. At 50m over four years, he’ll need to average ‘just’ 2.94 WAR per season. Obviously that’s still an impressive mark, and it will be difficult for him to attain without spending significant time as a close-to-league-average catcher - but it’s do-able. The switch hitting Martinez, even at 32 years old, didn’t show any noticeable signs of decline at the plate as he continued to hit with the games best offensive catchers, posting a .302/.351/.493 - .844 OPS that was second only to Joe Mauer in the American League.
Of course his value to the Tigers will ultimately be defined by just how much time he can spend behind the plate as a capable option at catcher, because his bat is great at that position, but significantly less so as a DH. Martinez has long been known as a below average receiver behind the plate, and struggled as much as ever in throwing out runners in 2010 as teams ran at will, stealing 99 bases in 125 attempts (a 79.5% success rate). But if he can manage to stay healthy, and not get any worse, at least in the near-term (the next two years) he’ll provide just what the Tigers need.
In Alex Avila the Tigers have a solid back-up. The 23 year old Avila was rushed to the Majors in 2009 as the Tigers needed someone to pair with the now departed Gerald Laird, and his power bat against right-handed pitching helped carry the Tigers through their late-season playoff push that ultimately came up just short. But Avila, at this point at least, is strictly a platoon option as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. That said, he’s a solid if unspectacular defender who does a capable job of controlling the running game and should be a fine late-game replacement should the Tigers feel the need to replace Martinez in such situations. Offensively, he’ll make a decent platoon partner against right-handed pitching when the Tigers decide to have Martinez DH.
As Martinez ages, particularly over the final two years of his contract, it’s likely that he’ll be increasingly relegated to DH duties where his bat should still be around league average for the position. The hope for the Tigers would be that Martinez stays healthy and proves to be a capable option at catcher for the next two seasons while continuing to post WAR marks in the 4.0 range while providing help in the middle of the lineup -either by creating chances in front of Miguel Cabrera, or by providing “protection” (which I really don’t believe in) behind him. Personally, I’d probably bat Martinez ahead of Cabrera if only because Martinez’s bat simply isn’t such a threat, even now, to prevent teams from working around Cabrera.
If Martinez can stay healthy and follow a WAR progression of 4.0 - 4.0 - 2.5 - 2.5 through his contract, he’ll more than justify the signing. Of course, that’s always the risk in signing free agents. You’re going to pay them for the best possible scenario, and are always unlikely to get it. But as free agent signings go, I think this is one that will pay off.
First, lets break down the contract. At four years, and fifty million dollars - the Tigers will be acquiring Martinez for what is likely to be the beginning of the decline phase of his career. Ideally, you’d probably like to give Martinez, 33 in late December, maybe just three years as catchers (and most players in general) tend to decline offensive at a pretty steep rate after age 34-35. But given the scarcity of good hitting catchers, combined with the Tigers general lack of offense, and the fact that Martinez will likely spend a good amount of time at designated hitter - the contract has an above average chance at being worthwhile in my opinion.
Over the past four full seasons, Martinez has been worth 4.5 (2007), 0.6 (2008), 4.7 (2009), and 3.0 WAR (2010) - using our standard rate of 4.25m per win, he’s been worth a total 54.4m during those three seasons. Of course, his 2008 was mostly lost due to injury, and that’s worth at least noting.
Given the fact that hose four seasons were essentially the back-end of his prime, and he’ll be 33 at the outset of this contract, it’s unlikely that he duplicates that level of value - but he doesn’t need to in order to justify his deal. At 50m over four years, he’ll need to average ‘just’ 2.94 WAR per season. Obviously that’s still an impressive mark, and it will be difficult for him to attain without spending significant time as a close-to-league-average catcher - but it’s do-able. The switch hitting Martinez, even at 32 years old, didn’t show any noticeable signs of decline at the plate as he continued to hit with the games best offensive catchers, posting a .302/.351/.493 - .844 OPS that was second only to Joe Mauer in the American League.
Of course his value to the Tigers will ultimately be defined by just how much time he can spend behind the plate as a capable option at catcher, because his bat is great at that position, but significantly less so as a DH. Martinez has long been known as a below average receiver behind the plate, and struggled as much as ever in throwing out runners in 2010 as teams ran at will, stealing 99 bases in 125 attempts (a 79.5% success rate). But if he can manage to stay healthy, and not get any worse, at least in the near-term (the next two years) he’ll provide just what the Tigers need.
In Alex Avila the Tigers have a solid back-up. The 23 year old Avila was rushed to the Majors in 2009 as the Tigers needed someone to pair with the now departed Gerald Laird, and his power bat against right-handed pitching helped carry the Tigers through their late-season playoff push that ultimately came up just short. But Avila, at this point at least, is strictly a platoon option as he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. That said, he’s a solid if unspectacular defender who does a capable job of controlling the running game and should be a fine late-game replacement should the Tigers feel the need to replace Martinez in such situations. Offensively, he’ll make a decent platoon partner against right-handed pitching when the Tigers decide to have Martinez DH.
As Martinez ages, particularly over the final two years of his contract, it’s likely that he’ll be increasingly relegated to DH duties where his bat should still be around league average for the position. The hope for the Tigers would be that Martinez stays healthy and proves to be a capable option at catcher for the next two seasons while continuing to post WAR marks in the 4.0 range while providing help in the middle of the lineup -either by creating chances in front of Miguel Cabrera, or by providing “protection” (which I really don’t believe in) behind him. Personally, I’d probably bat Martinez ahead of Cabrera if only because Martinez’s bat simply isn’t such a threat, even now, to prevent teams from working around Cabrera.
If Martinez can stay healthy and follow a WAR progression of 4.0 - 4.0 - 2.5 - 2.5 through his contract, he’ll more than justify the signing. Of course, that’s always the risk in signing free agents. You’re going to pay them for the best possible scenario, and are always unlikely to get it. But as free agent signings go, I think this is one that will pay off.
Tigers Sign Joaquin Benoit
After a career of up-and-down performances with the Texas Rangers that culminated with his missing the entire 2009 season after rotator-cuff surgery, Joaquin Benoit signed a minor league deal with the Tampa Bay Rays with an invite to spring training. Benoit always had a decent arm, working in the 91-92mph range and missed plenty of bats. But he had been plagued by injuries and control issues. For the league minimum, the Rays got 60.1 innings of a 1.34 ERA and a 1.5 WAR - just a tick below Rafael Soriano (1.6) and Mariano Rivera (1.7). Suffice it to say, they got their monies worth.
Fast forward to one year later and the Tigers, looking to bolster a bullpen that struggled mightily when injury-prone flam-throwing righty Joel Zumaya went down with a broken elbow, swooped in early to make the first meaningful signing of the 2010-2011 off season. They inked Benoit to a three year, sixteen-and-a-half million dollar deal that ranks as one of the richest ever for a non-closer.
It's a significant layout for a player who has had just one dominant year in his career, with a history of injuries, and it's a deal that comes with obvious pluses and minuses.
Beyond Benoit's obvious talents, the fact that he wouldn't cost the Tigers a draft pick - as other potential options might have - might be his greatest benefit in my mind. Even with the Tigers later moving to sign Victor Martinez, they still could've lost their second round pick - something most analysts view as being worth at least 500K - and perhaps more importantly, something a team with a relatively weak farm system like the Tigers would like to retain. That said, Benoit's as talented as anyone else available and, should he stay healthy, will prove to be a good contributor for the Tigers and reliable bridge to closer Jose Valverde.
History suggests that Benoit will likely not be worth every penny he's going to get paid. That's partly due to the fact that relievers just don't effect enough innings to play major roles on any team. This is particularly true in the case of Benoit, who hasn't been healthy enough to register a season with more than 60 innings since 2007. But it's also because Benoit simply isn't a likely candidate to repeat his success of 2010.
Consider if you will that Benoit set career marks in strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and not surprisingly bested his career best FIP and xFIP marks by over a run and a half each. He did so on the back of a .201 BABIP - 90 points lower than his career average. The odds of ANY pitcher repeating such success is pretty much nil, and they're even lower for someone who has never approached such production before while playing at the most statistically volatile position in the game.
As for the contract itself, there are a few different ways to look at it. We can take the simplistic view that the Tigers had a need, and filled it. That in itself should be viewed as a success.We can also look at it in terms of comparative value - how much better will Benoit be than an internal option such as Daniel Schlereth or a cheaper external option such as Koji Uehara?
Finally, we can look at it in terms of statistical value. This of course, is the lense with which I prefer to view the game. If we assume that a single WAR is worth about 4.25m, Benoit would have to be worth 1.29WAR per season make the deal a break-even one for the Tigers. It's not impossible of course - Benoit put together such a stretch earlier in his career when he was contributing 80+ innings per season. But he's not that player anymore and hasn't been for awhile.
When we look at similar long-term deals for middle-relievers - such as those given to Bobby Seay and Scott Linebrink - we see deals that gave long-term stability to pitchers who's long-term impact should've been considered questionable at best. Both of those relievers signed three year deals with their new clubs and have either failed to produce at all (Seay due to injury) or have produced so poorly that their contracts end up being detrimental (Linebrink). In both cases, the acquiring teams likely wish they hadn't made such deals. There is some similarity with Benoit in that regard. He is getting paid quite a bit by middle-relief standards, and he'll be getting paid that way for quite awhile. And ultimately, he is a bit bigger risk than some of his free agent companions.
So what can we expect to see from Benoit going forward? It's a little bit tough to say. On the one hand you have his lifetime body of work, which suggests flashes of brilliance that overall, are marked by an inability to command the strike zone throughout the season. On the other, we have what would appear to be the new-and-improved Benoit - the one who came back from major shoulder surgery pitching like the bionic man.
But if I had to venture a guess (and I guess that's the job you're not paying me to do) I'd project the improved strikeout rate to stick while the walk rate normalizes and ultimately you're left with a player somewhere in between who he was pre-surgery, and who he was last year. In terms of his FIP, I'd expect to see marks in the mid-threes and and ERA that hovers in he mid-to-high threes or low fours which would be a fair amount better than the 4.47 ERA he's accumulated throughout his career.
I'm not completely in love with this deal from the Tigers perspective in the sense that I think it'll ultimately be viewed in a poor light as it becomes apparent that they have equally capable options within the franchise already - be it Zumaya, Schlereth or Ryan Perry. But there is also a chance that this could work out very nicely if Benoit's improved command sticks. If that's the case, he could prove to be an expensive setup man who helps the Tigers bullpen be one of the better ones in baseball.
Fast forward to one year later and the Tigers, looking to bolster a bullpen that struggled mightily when injury-prone flam-throwing righty Joel Zumaya went down with a broken elbow, swooped in early to make the first meaningful signing of the 2010-2011 off season. They inked Benoit to a three year, sixteen-and-a-half million dollar deal that ranks as one of the richest ever for a non-closer.
It's a significant layout for a player who has had just one dominant year in his career, with a history of injuries, and it's a deal that comes with obvious pluses and minuses.
Beyond Benoit's obvious talents, the fact that he wouldn't cost the Tigers a draft pick - as other potential options might have - might be his greatest benefit in my mind. Even with the Tigers later moving to sign Victor Martinez, they still could've lost their second round pick - something most analysts view as being worth at least 500K - and perhaps more importantly, something a team with a relatively weak farm system like the Tigers would like to retain. That said, Benoit's as talented as anyone else available and, should he stay healthy, will prove to be a good contributor for the Tigers and reliable bridge to closer Jose Valverde.
History suggests that Benoit will likely not be worth every penny he's going to get paid. That's partly due to the fact that relievers just don't effect enough innings to play major roles on any team. This is particularly true in the case of Benoit, who hasn't been healthy enough to register a season with more than 60 innings since 2007. But it's also because Benoit simply isn't a likely candidate to repeat his success of 2010.
Consider if you will that Benoit set career marks in strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and not surprisingly bested his career best FIP and xFIP marks by over a run and a half each. He did so on the back of a .201 BABIP - 90 points lower than his career average. The odds of ANY pitcher repeating such success is pretty much nil, and they're even lower for someone who has never approached such production before while playing at the most statistically volatile position in the game.
As for the contract itself, there are a few different ways to look at it. We can take the simplistic view that the Tigers had a need, and filled it. That in itself should be viewed as a success.We can also look at it in terms of comparative value - how much better will Benoit be than an internal option such as Daniel Schlereth or a cheaper external option such as Koji Uehara?
Finally, we can look at it in terms of statistical value. This of course, is the lense with which I prefer to view the game. If we assume that a single WAR is worth about 4.25m, Benoit would have to be worth 1.29WAR per season make the deal a break-even one for the Tigers. It's not impossible of course - Benoit put together such a stretch earlier in his career when he was contributing 80+ innings per season. But he's not that player anymore and hasn't been for awhile.
When we look at similar long-term deals for middle-relievers - such as those given to Bobby Seay and Scott Linebrink - we see deals that gave long-term stability to pitchers who's long-term impact should've been considered questionable at best. Both of those relievers signed three year deals with their new clubs and have either failed to produce at all (Seay due to injury) or have produced so poorly that their contracts end up being detrimental (Linebrink). In both cases, the acquiring teams likely wish they hadn't made such deals. There is some similarity with Benoit in that regard. He is getting paid quite a bit by middle-relief standards, and he'll be getting paid that way for quite awhile. And ultimately, he is a bit bigger risk than some of his free agent companions.
So what can we expect to see from Benoit going forward? It's a little bit tough to say. On the one hand you have his lifetime body of work, which suggests flashes of brilliance that overall, are marked by an inability to command the strike zone throughout the season. On the other, we have what would appear to be the new-and-improved Benoit - the one who came back from major shoulder surgery pitching like the bionic man.
But if I had to venture a guess (and I guess that's the job you're not paying me to do) I'd project the improved strikeout rate to stick while the walk rate normalizes and ultimately you're left with a player somewhere in between who he was pre-surgery, and who he was last year. In terms of his FIP, I'd expect to see marks in the mid-threes and and ERA that hovers in he mid-to-high threes or low fours which would be a fair amount better than the 4.47 ERA he's accumulated throughout his career.
I'm not completely in love with this deal from the Tigers perspective in the sense that I think it'll ultimately be viewed in a poor light as it becomes apparent that they have equally capable options within the franchise already - be it Zumaya, Schlereth or Ryan Perry. But there is also a chance that this could work out very nicely if Benoit's improved command sticks. If that's the case, he could prove to be an expensive setup man who helps the Tigers bullpen be one of the better ones in baseball.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Wrapping up the 2010 White Sox.
Major League Wrap Up
2010 was a pendulum-swing kind of season for White Sox. They opened poorly and there was talk of a fire-sale before they had even reached the trading deadline as there were rumors of AJ Pierzynski being on the block and much hand-wringing about the off season decisions of GM Kenny Williams. Particularly in regard to the teams designated hitters, Mark Kotsay (-0.7 WAR) and Mark Teahan (-0.6 WAR), who turned out to be terribly misguided signings. More on that later. After losing on June 8th, the team was 22-33 and 9.5 games out of first with little sign of a turnaround in their future.
But a turnaround happened to be EXACTLY what was in their future as the team went on a monster run from June 9th through August 7th, going 40-15 and turning a 9.5 game deficit into a 1.5 game lead - a lead that at one point swelled to as much as 3.5 games - while leapfrogging the Tigers and Twins. Despite losing starter Jake Peavy for the season, the White Sox continued to battle the Twins for the division until a decisive spate of games in late August and early September allowed the red-hot Twins to effectively salt the division away.
In between, there were inspired offensive performances from aging veteran and team leader Paul Konerko who had perhaps the best season of his career, posting career best marks in essentially every advanced metric, from OPS (.977), to wOBA (.415) and RC+ (160). Alex Rios also had a nice bounce-back season, posting a .791 OPS after tanking in 2009, and shortstop Alexei Ramirez turned in the best offensive season of any shortstop in what was a poor offensive group of AL shortstops while being hosed for the Gold Glove by one Derek Jeter.
On the mound, the Sox got another strong season from John Danks, who continues to cement himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the game, posting a 117 ERA+ while topping 200 innings for the second straight season, and posting another strong ERA (3.72). Kenny Williams also made an interesting move mid-season to deal off a struggling Daniel Hudson for the enigmatic Edwin Jackson who pitched brilliantly down the stretch for the Sox. In the bullpen Matt Thornton (164 ERA+) and J.J. Putz (154 ERA+) combined to form perhaps the best setup combination in all of baseball, despite late season struggles.
There were also some promising seasons from youngsters Sergio Santos and Chris Sale, both of whom lit the bullpen world on fire with 96mph fastballs and wipeout sliders they'd throw in any count en route to racking up K rates over nine. Sale, fresh out of college and the first player from the 2010 draft to reach the Majors, and Santos, a converted infielder, both struggled with their command to varying extents. But both have the talent to be fixtures in the rotation (Sale) and bullpen (Santos) for years to come. Brent Morel also looks to have some promise at third with strong defense and a solid bat, I'm expecting a very good 2011 for him, more on that another day.
As for the aforementioned DH situation, the decision to bring in the two was largely the byproduct of a General Manager giving in to Manager Ozzie Guillen's misguided desire to add more positional flexibility at a spot where positional flexibility is least worthwhile. One would assume Williams wont be making the same mistake again in 2011. Unfortunately for Williams, the Teahan deal will be the deal that keeps on giving, as he's owed 4.75m in 2011 and 5.5m in 2012. Why Williams felt compelled to offer Teahan, who hadn't had a legitimately productive season since 2007 a three year deal continues to baffle me.
The team also got underwhelming performances from closer Bobby Jenks, supposed staff ace Peavy, and at least to some extent, catcher Pierzynski and outfielder/DH Carlos Quentin.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Indians To Cut Payroll
After cutting payroll by almost exactly 20m from 81m in 2009 to 61m in 2010, it appears they'll do so again in 2011. Paul Hoynes is reporting that;
"Just how much money the Indians can spend on players has yet to be determined, but the payroll will drop from $61.5 million at the start of last season to between $40 million and $50 million."
Earlier this week, I made my first payroll projection for the 2011 Indians and had them at a division low 41.35m after arbitration raises are factored in. While Hoynes notes that there is no clear indication of how much room GM Chris Antonetti - entering his first full off season - will have to spend, it's clear that it likely wont be much more than about 9.5m, if my payroll calculations are correct. It could also be a fair amount less if Shin-Soo Choo ends up making more than 3.0m I have him pegged for in arbitration, or the final figure is closer to, say, 45m than 50m.
With that in mind, the Indians will be left in a position where they will be forced to either go into 2011 with little change from the roster currently in place - one that includes five players who project as regulars that posted OPS marks of .705 or lower in 2010. Yikes.
The payroll cut is likely at least partially the result of continued plummeting attendance as the Indians have seen attendance fall from just 28,097 per game during their 96 win 2007 season, to just 17,180 last year as the team experienced it's second straight season with fewer than 70 wins. With attendance down by 39%, a drop in payroll to 50m would be almost exactly on line (38.5%). Obviously also influential would be the corresponding loss of revenue from concessions and merchandise, amongst other factors.
Ultimately, this leads to a discussion of how winning effects revenues, and perhaps more importantly, precisely how cost-effective salary cutting measures such as trading star players (Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, CC Sabathia) as they become more expensive really are. But that's a discussion (both interesting and important) for another day.
What needs to be focused on now is precisely how the Indians will try and address their many weaknesses during the 2010-2011 off season. The team could stand to have more reliable options at first (where Matt LaPorta will be given every chance to become a fixture), second, third, and left field. On the mound, they need a legitimate ace and a solid innings eater. The bullpen could use a reliable right-handed setup option. But other than that...
Obviously it'll be far beyond the capacities of Mr. Antonetti to address all these concerns, but how he goes about it should be interesting. The Indians made a nice play by pulling Austin Kearns off the scrap hep last year, but they'd need to make many more this off season, and do so with far less room to operate. Will the Indians stick with the players they have and try and make a few savvy acquisitions? Or will they perhaps try and make a trade to clear salary or further their rebuilding efforts?
We won't know, and I'm not going to use this particular piece for speculation, but we'll find out a lot about how Antonetti and the rest of the Indians management feel about the players they have in place and how much work they still think they need to do.
"Just how much money the Indians can spend on players has yet to be determined, but the payroll will drop from $61.5 million at the start of last season to between $40 million and $50 million."
Earlier this week, I made my first payroll projection for the 2011 Indians and had them at a division low 41.35m after arbitration raises are factored in. While Hoynes notes that there is no clear indication of how much room GM Chris Antonetti - entering his first full off season - will have to spend, it's clear that it likely wont be much more than about 9.5m, if my payroll calculations are correct. It could also be a fair amount less if Shin-Soo Choo ends up making more than 3.0m I have him pegged for in arbitration, or the final figure is closer to, say, 45m than 50m.
With that in mind, the Indians will be left in a position where they will be forced to either go into 2011 with little change from the roster currently in place - one that includes five players who project as regulars that posted OPS marks of .705 or lower in 2010. Yikes.
The payroll cut is likely at least partially the result of continued plummeting attendance as the Indians have seen attendance fall from just 28,097 per game during their 96 win 2007 season, to just 17,180 last year as the team experienced it's second straight season with fewer than 70 wins. With attendance down by 39%, a drop in payroll to 50m would be almost exactly on line (38.5%). Obviously also influential would be the corresponding loss of revenue from concessions and merchandise, amongst other factors.
Ultimately, this leads to a discussion of how winning effects revenues, and perhaps more importantly, precisely how cost-effective salary cutting measures such as trading star players (Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, CC Sabathia) as they become more expensive really are. But that's a discussion (both interesting and important) for another day.
What needs to be focused on now is precisely how the Indians will try and address their many weaknesses during the 2010-2011 off season. The team could stand to have more reliable options at first (where Matt LaPorta will be given every chance to become a fixture), second, third, and left field. On the mound, they need a legitimate ace and a solid innings eater. The bullpen could use a reliable right-handed setup option. But other than that...
Obviously it'll be far beyond the capacities of Mr. Antonetti to address all these concerns, but how he goes about it should be interesting. The Indians made a nice play by pulling Austin Kearns off the scrap hep last year, but they'd need to make many more this off season, and do so with far less room to operate. Will the Indians stick with the players they have and try and make a few savvy acquisitions? Or will they perhaps try and make a trade to clear salary or further their rebuilding efforts?
We won't know, and I'm not going to use this particular piece for speculation, but we'll find out a lot about how Antonetti and the rest of the Indians management feel about the players they have in place and how much work they still think they need to do.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
David DeJesus to Athletics for Vin Mazzaro
Last week the Royals dealt outfielder David DeJesus, who had been on the market since the trade deadline, to the Oakland Athletics for a pair of pitchers including Major Leaguer Vin Mazzaro and minor leaguer Justin Marks.
Initally, I was a bit shocked to see this. The last time I wrote about DeJesus, back in September, I was questioning what was taking the Royals so long too exercise DeJesus' 2011 option. Well, they did, finally. When DeJesus wasn't moved at the deadline, my guess was that the Royals would hold onto him until the deadline next year when I expected he'd have a bit more value.
Instead, GM Dayton Moore traded him to the A's for a backend starter and an interesting, if unproven A ball lefty. To say I expected the Royals to be capable of getting a better return for DeJesus, an affordable, consistent 3.0 WAR player is saying too little. I think they got hammered in this deal.
It's not that Mazzaro is a terrible pitcher - but he's completely uninspiring. His 4.27 ERA was largely the product of pitching in one of baseball's most pitcher friendly stadiums. His career strikeout (5.81), walk (3.75), homerun (1.31), and groundball (41.2%) are all below average, and weren't any better last year. As a soft throwing righty who will be 25 next year, he seems to have little upside.
The only benefit I see for the Royals is that they saved about 5.5m in the swap and perhaps finalized their opening day 2011 rotation. But for every benefit, there is an equal (or worse) drawback. First of all, if bringing in Mazzaro to finalize the rotation was a goal, they've now left themselves with a gaping hole in the outfield. Secondly, Moore has already made it clear he doesn't intend to reinvest that money and lastly, Mazzaro is pretty much the definition of a replacement level player.
The Royal's, who own baseballs best farm system should've been able to find someone easily capable of replicating his performance. If not from within, from the waiver wire or perhaps even the Rule V draft.
As for Marks, he is at least a somewhat intriguing. His rate stats in A ball were solid (good even), but given that he was drafted as a polished college pitcher finishing his junior season, his performance doesn't necessarily mean a ton. He's not a hard thrower, topping out in the low 90's and working 89-91 on the fastball, and doesn't show outstanding command. He might have a future in the back-end of the rotation or as a long reliever.
Realistically, the Royals just dealt one of their best players, and one of the leagues best trade chips for veritable peanuts. GM Dayton Moore deserves a ton of credit for building such a great farm system, but his free agent and trade philosophies continues to baffle me to no end.
Initally, I was a bit shocked to see this. The last time I wrote about DeJesus, back in September, I was questioning what was taking the Royals so long too exercise DeJesus' 2011 option. Well, they did, finally. When DeJesus wasn't moved at the deadline, my guess was that the Royals would hold onto him until the deadline next year when I expected he'd have a bit more value.
Instead, GM Dayton Moore traded him to the A's for a backend starter and an interesting, if unproven A ball lefty. To say I expected the Royals to be capable of getting a better return for DeJesus, an affordable, consistent 3.0 WAR player is saying too little. I think they got hammered in this deal.
It's not that Mazzaro is a terrible pitcher - but he's completely uninspiring. His 4.27 ERA was largely the product of pitching in one of baseball's most pitcher friendly stadiums. His career strikeout (5.81), walk (3.75), homerun (1.31), and groundball (41.2%) are all below average, and weren't any better last year. As a soft throwing righty who will be 25 next year, he seems to have little upside.
The only benefit I see for the Royals is that they saved about 5.5m in the swap and perhaps finalized their opening day 2011 rotation. But for every benefit, there is an equal (or worse) drawback. First of all, if bringing in Mazzaro to finalize the rotation was a goal, they've now left themselves with a gaping hole in the outfield. Secondly, Moore has already made it clear he doesn't intend to reinvest that money and lastly, Mazzaro is pretty much the definition of a replacement level player.
The Royal's, who own baseballs best farm system should've been able to find someone easily capable of replicating his performance. If not from within, from the waiver wire or perhaps even the Rule V draft.
As for Marks, he is at least a somewhat intriguing. His rate stats in A ball were solid (good even), but given that he was drafted as a polished college pitcher finishing his junior season, his performance doesn't necessarily mean a ton. He's not a hard thrower, topping out in the low 90's and working 89-91 on the fastball, and doesn't show outstanding command. He might have a future in the back-end of the rotation or as a long reliever.
Realistically, the Royals just dealt one of their best players, and one of the leagues best trade chips for veritable peanuts. GM Dayton Moore deserves a ton of credit for building such a great farm system, but his free agent and trade philosophies continues to baffle me to no end.
Should the Tigers Trade For Dan Uggla?
As extension talks with the Marlins break down, talk around the hot stove has turned to where Dan Uggla will be traded. It's also become apparent that the Tigers are a likely landing spot.
Let's delve into the numbers to try and get an idea of how Uggla would fit in at Comerica.
Dan Uggla is a terrible defender.
Uggla posted a -7.4 UZR/150 at second base last year. Consistently ranked as a poor defender at second throughout his career, he carries a career UZR/150 of -4.5 which is buoyed somewhat by his rookie year, where he posted a +5.7 mark, the only season he's been above average. Beyond that he's also rated poorly by Dewan's +/- system (-8) and the Defensive Runs Saved metric (-11). Among qualified defenders, he ranked 3rd worst in baseball in UZR/150, 6th worst in +/-, and tied for worst in DRS. So it should be pretty safe to say he's a bad defender.
Dan Uggla is a great offensive second baseman.
A career .263/.349/.488 hitter, Uggla posted a .287/.369/.508 triple slash line last year on the back of a .330 BABIP. Those marks ranked 4th in OBP and 2nd in SLG among all qualified second basemen. Overall, his .877 OPS was second to just Robinson Cano.
Overall, Dan Uggla is pretty good.
Overall, Uggla's combination of great offense and terrible defense still leave him rated as a very good player, as his 5.1 WAR last year indicated. That 5.1 was a career best, and probably not what should be expected on a yearly basis. But it shows that he has the upside to be one of the 30 best players in baseball in any given year. Indeed, that 5.1 WAR was tied for 26th best in baseball with one Joe Mauer.
Throughout his five full seasons, Uggla has been worth an average of 3.8 WAR per season. As a player who will enter the 2011 season as a 31 year old, in the prime of his career, it's likely that he'd be worth somewhere around that amount - and maybe slightly more - for the next couple seasons, provided his defense doesn't fall off any further.
A lot of really smart people think Scott Sizemore will be pretty good next year.
Looking at Bill James' projections for Scott Sizemore next year, you have to be excited as a Tigers fan. While Sizemore struggled mightily out of the gate in 2010, it's likely that was at least partially due to the knee injury he suffered during the off season. As the season went on, Sizemore really heated up and ended up hitting well in AAA to the tune of a .850 OPS. He then got a late season call-up and showed off why so many folks think so highly of his bat.
James is projecting Sizemore for a .277/.343/.438 line next year which I think is right around what I expect. That looks pretty similar to Uggla's career line .263/.349/.488, with a bit better average and a bit less power.
Dan Uggla will be expensive.
This is where things get tricky. Uggla just turned down a 4 year, 48m deal from the Marlins, which has created all the trade buzz. Presumably, he did so at least partially because he wants more money and/or more years. If Uggla wants more money, presumably by at least a couple million, the signing team could end up paying him around 14m per year.
If we can agree that a player is worth 4.25m per WAR (which is around average) in free agency, then even his average season is worth around 16m per season. He'd certainly be worth the money - as a second baseman. The question is, can he stick at second over the course of a 4 or 5 year deal?
If not and he has to move to third, or worse, first base or designated hitter, suddenly his offense isn't nearly as impressive when compared to his positional peers.
The next part of the equation is how much will he cost in terms of prospects? There aren't a lot of recent comparables in terms of high WAR middle infielders being dealt. I don't imagine Uggla would cost a Top-50 Prospect, but I also don't think they'd be out of line to seek a Top-75/100 type player in return. I'm fairly confident they could get a player of that caliber in return. The market for players with Uggla's skill set (good bat, bad glove) has diminished over the past five years, but not to that extent.
My guess would be that there will be enough interest and competition that the Marlins will be able to secure a Top-100 prospect. The Tigers however, have a pretty thin farm system. I'd assume that Jacob Turner, the Tigers top prospect would be out of reach. But someone like Brennan Boesch, Casey Crosby, or Daniel Schlereth could headline a deal.
Ultimately, Dave Dombrowski will have to decide if dealing players as well thought of as Crosby and Schlereth, in addition to forking out a sizeable contract is worthwhile. And that's not as cut-and-dry as it might seem.
Will Uggla be an upgrade over Sizemore? Probably. Will it be by a significant margin? Maybe. Maybe not. What is certain is that the Tigers would have to put out a significant outlay in both dollars and prospects to get Dan Uggla in stripes.
Let's delve into the numbers to try and get an idea of how Uggla would fit in at Comerica.
Dan Uggla is a terrible defender.
Uggla posted a -7.4 UZR/150 at second base last year. Consistently ranked as a poor defender at second throughout his career, he carries a career UZR/150 of -4.5 which is buoyed somewhat by his rookie year, where he posted a +5.7 mark, the only season he's been above average. Beyond that he's also rated poorly by Dewan's +/- system (-8) and the Defensive Runs Saved metric (-11). Among qualified defenders, he ranked 3rd worst in baseball in UZR/150, 6th worst in +/-, and tied for worst in DRS. So it should be pretty safe to say he's a bad defender.
Dan Uggla is a great offensive second baseman.
A career .263/.349/.488 hitter, Uggla posted a .287/.369/.508 triple slash line last year on the back of a .330 BABIP. Those marks ranked 4th in OBP and 2nd in SLG among all qualified second basemen. Overall, his .877 OPS was second to just Robinson Cano.
Overall, Dan Uggla is pretty good.
Overall, Uggla's combination of great offense and terrible defense still leave him rated as a very good player, as his 5.1 WAR last year indicated. That 5.1 was a career best, and probably not what should be expected on a yearly basis. But it shows that he has the upside to be one of the 30 best players in baseball in any given year. Indeed, that 5.1 WAR was tied for 26th best in baseball with one Joe Mauer.
Throughout his five full seasons, Uggla has been worth an average of 3.8 WAR per season. As a player who will enter the 2011 season as a 31 year old, in the prime of his career, it's likely that he'd be worth somewhere around that amount - and maybe slightly more - for the next couple seasons, provided his defense doesn't fall off any further.
A lot of really smart people think Scott Sizemore will be pretty good next year.
Looking at Bill James' projections for Scott Sizemore next year, you have to be excited as a Tigers fan. While Sizemore struggled mightily out of the gate in 2010, it's likely that was at least partially due to the knee injury he suffered during the off season. As the season went on, Sizemore really heated up and ended up hitting well in AAA to the tune of a .850 OPS. He then got a late season call-up and showed off why so many folks think so highly of his bat.
James is projecting Sizemore for a .277/.343/.438 line next year which I think is right around what I expect. That looks pretty similar to Uggla's career line .263/.349/.488, with a bit better average and a bit less power.
Dan Uggla will be expensive.
This is where things get tricky. Uggla just turned down a 4 year, 48m deal from the Marlins, which has created all the trade buzz. Presumably, he did so at least partially because he wants more money and/or more years. If Uggla wants more money, presumably by at least a couple million, the signing team could end up paying him around 14m per year.
If we can agree that a player is worth 4.25m per WAR (which is around average) in free agency, then even his average season is worth around 16m per season. He'd certainly be worth the money - as a second baseman. The question is, can he stick at second over the course of a 4 or 5 year deal?
If not and he has to move to third, or worse, first base or designated hitter, suddenly his offense isn't nearly as impressive when compared to his positional peers.
The next part of the equation is how much will he cost in terms of prospects? There aren't a lot of recent comparables in terms of high WAR middle infielders being dealt. I don't imagine Uggla would cost a Top-50 Prospect, but I also don't think they'd be out of line to seek a Top-75/100 type player in return. I'm fairly confident they could get a player of that caliber in return. The market for players with Uggla's skill set (good bat, bad glove) has diminished over the past five years, but not to that extent.
My guess would be that there will be enough interest and competition that the Marlins will be able to secure a Top-100 prospect. The Tigers however, have a pretty thin farm system. I'd assume that Jacob Turner, the Tigers top prospect would be out of reach. But someone like Brennan Boesch, Casey Crosby, or Daniel Schlereth could headline a deal.
Ultimately, Dave Dombrowski will have to decide if dealing players as well thought of as Crosby and Schlereth, in addition to forking out a sizeable contract is worthwhile. And that's not as cut-and-dry as it might seem.
Will Uggla be an upgrade over Sizemore? Probably. Will it be by a significant margin? Maybe. Maybe not. What is certain is that the Tigers would have to put out a significant outlay in both dollars and prospects to get Dan Uggla in stripes.
White Sox 2011 Payroll Estimate #1
This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Ramon Castro - 1.2m
1B)
2B) Gordon Beckham - 450k
3B) Brent Morel - 450k
SS) Alexi Ramirez - 2.75m
LF) Juan Pierre - 8.5m
CF) Alex Rios - 12.5m
RF) Carlos Quentin - 5.0m*
DH) Mark Teahan - 4.75m*
BN) Dayan Viciedo - 2.25m
BN) Omar Vizquel - 1.75m
BN) Brent Lillibridge - 450k
BN)
SP) Jake Peavy- 16.0m
SP) Mark Buehrle - 14.0m
SP) Edwin Jackson - 8.75m
SP) John Danks - 5.5m*
SP) Gavin Floyd - 5.0m
RP)
RP) Tony Pena - 1.5m*
RP) Sergio Santos - 450k
RP) Chris Sale - 450k
RP) Matt Thornton - 3.0m
RP) Scott Linebrink - 5.5m
RP) Bobby Jenks - 10.0m*
Total: 110.2m
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Ramon Castro - 1.2m
1B)
2B) Gordon Beckham - 450k
3B) Brent Morel - 450k
SS) Alexi Ramirez - 2.75m
LF) Juan Pierre - 8.5m
CF) Alex Rios - 12.5m
RF) Carlos Quentin - 5.0m*
DH) Mark Teahan - 4.75m*
BN) Dayan Viciedo - 2.25m
BN) Omar Vizquel - 1.75m
BN) Brent Lillibridge - 450k
BN)
SP) Jake Peavy- 16.0m
SP) Mark Buehrle - 14.0m
SP) Edwin Jackson - 8.75m
SP) John Danks - 5.5m*
SP) Gavin Floyd - 5.0m
RP)
RP) Tony Pena - 1.5m*
RP) Sergio Santos - 450k
RP) Chris Sale - 450k
RP) Matt Thornton - 3.0m
RP) Scott Linebrink - 5.5m
RP) Bobby Jenks - 10.0m*
Total: 110.2m
Twins 2011 Payroll Estimate #1
This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C: Mauer - 23.0m
1B: Morneau - 14.0m
2B: Casilla - 800k*
3B: Valencia - 450k
SS: Hardy - 6.5m*
LF: Young - 5.5m*
CF: Span - 1.0m
RF: Cuddyer - 10.5m
DH: Kubel - 5.25m
BN: Butera - 450k
BN: Tolbert - 450k
BN: Plouffe - 450k
BN: Harris - 1.75m
BN:
SP: Liriano - 4.5m*
SP: Baker - 5.0m
SP: Blackburn - 3.0m
SP: Slowey - 2.5m*
SP: Duensing - 450k
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Perkins - 750k*
RP: Mijares - 450k
RP: Capps - 7.5m*
RP: Nathan - 11.25m
Buyout: Punto - 500k
Total: 106.0m
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C: Mauer - 23.0m
1B: Morneau - 14.0m
2B: Casilla - 800k*
3B: Valencia - 450k
SS: Hardy - 6.5m*
LF: Young - 5.5m*
CF: Span - 1.0m
RF: Cuddyer - 10.5m
DH: Kubel - 5.25m
BN: Butera - 450k
BN: Tolbert - 450k
BN: Plouffe - 450k
BN: Harris - 1.75m
BN:
SP: Liriano - 4.5m*
SP: Baker - 5.0m
SP: Blackburn - 3.0m
SP: Slowey - 2.5m*
SP: Duensing - 450k
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP: Perkins - 750k*
RP: Mijares - 450k
RP: Capps - 7.5m*
RP: Nathan - 11.25m
Buyout: Punto - 500k
Total: 106.0m
Friday, November 12, 2010
Tigers 2011 Payroll Estimate #1
This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Alex Avila - 450k
1B) Miguel Cabrera - 20.0m
2B) Scott Sizemore - 450k
3B) Brandon Inge - 5.5m
SS) Johnny Peralta - 5.25m
LF) Ryan Raburn - 1.5m*
CF) Austin Jackson - 450k
RF) Brennan Boesch - 450k
DH) Carlos Guillen - 13.0m
BN) Ramon Santiago - 1.25m
BN) Don Kelly - 450k
BN) Casper Wells - 450k
BN)
SP) Justin Verlander - 12.85m
SP) Max Scherzer - 450k
SP) Rick Porcello - 1.535m
SP) Armando Gallaraga - 1.5m*
SP) Phil Coke - 450k
RP)
RP) Daniel Schlereth - 450k
RP) Zach Miner - 1.5m*
RP) Fu-Te Ni - 450k
RP) Ryan Perry - 450k
RP) Joel Zumaya - 1.5m*
RP) Jose Valverde - 7.0m
MiLB Costs:
Jacob Turner - 1.175m
Total: 77.335m
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Alex Avila - 450k
1B) Miguel Cabrera - 20.0m
2B) Scott Sizemore - 450k
3B) Brandon Inge - 5.5m
SS) Johnny Peralta - 5.25m
LF) Ryan Raburn - 1.5m*
CF) Austin Jackson - 450k
RF) Brennan Boesch - 450k
DH) Carlos Guillen - 13.0m
BN) Ramon Santiago - 1.25m
BN) Don Kelly - 450k
BN) Casper Wells - 450k
BN)
SP) Justin Verlander - 12.85m
SP) Max Scherzer - 450k
SP) Rick Porcello - 1.535m
SP) Armando Gallaraga - 1.5m*
SP) Phil Coke - 450k
RP)
RP) Daniel Schlereth - 450k
RP) Zach Miner - 1.5m*
RP) Fu-Te Ni - 450k
RP) Ryan Perry - 450k
RP) Joel Zumaya - 1.5m*
RP) Jose Valverde - 7.0m
MiLB Costs:
Jacob Turner - 1.175m
Total: 77.335m
Royals 2011 Payroll Estimate #1
This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Jason Kendall - 3.75m
1B) Billy Butler - 2.0m*
2B) Mike Aviles - 450k
3B) Josh Fields - 750k*
SS) Betancourt - 4.375m
LF) Alex Gordon - 2.0m*
CF) Mitch Maier - 450k
RF)
DH) Kila Ka'aihue - 450k
BN) Brayan Pena - 750k*
BN) Joaquin Arias - 450k
BN)
BN)
SP) Zack Grienke - 13.5m
SP) Gil Meche - 12.4m
SP) Luke Hochevar - 2.5m*
SP) Kyle Davies - 2.5m*
SP) Vin Mazzaro - 450k
RP)
RP) Blake Wood - 450k
RP) Dusty Hughes - 450k
RP) Sean O'Sullivan - 450k
RP) Kevin Pucetas - 450k
RP) Robinson Tejada - 1.5m*
RP) Joakim Soria - 4.0m
MiLB Costs:
- Noel Agruelles 1.38m
- Aaron Crow: 1.0m
Total: 54.455m
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Jason Kendall - 3.75m
1B) Billy Butler - 2.0m*
2B) Mike Aviles - 450k
3B) Josh Fields - 750k*
SS) Betancourt - 4.375m
LF) Alex Gordon - 2.0m*
CF) Mitch Maier - 450k
RF)
DH) Kila Ka'aihue - 450k
BN) Brayan Pena - 750k*
BN) Joaquin Arias - 450k
BN)
BN)
SP) Zack Grienke - 13.5m
SP) Gil Meche - 12.4m
SP) Luke Hochevar - 2.5m*
SP) Kyle Davies - 2.5m*
SP) Vin Mazzaro - 450k
RP)
RP) Blake Wood - 450k
RP) Dusty Hughes - 450k
RP) Sean O'Sullivan - 450k
RP) Kevin Pucetas - 450k
RP) Robinson Tejada - 1.5m*
RP) Joakim Soria - 4.0m
MiLB Costs:
- Noel Agruelles 1.38m
- Aaron Crow: 1.0m
Total: 54.455m
Indians 2011 Payroll Estimate #1
This estimate reflects only players who are currently under team control for the 2011 season. It does not include any speculation on players who will be signed via free agency or those who will be acquired via trade. This list will change as the off season progress, and players are acquired, or lost.
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Carlos Santana - 450k
1B) Matt LaPorta - 450k
2B) Luis Valbuena - 450k
3B) Jayson Nix - 450k
SS) Asdrubal Cabrera - 1.5m*
LF) Michael Brantley - 450k
CF) Grady Sizemore - 7.66m
RF) Shin-Soo Choo - 3.0m*
DH) Travis Hafner - 13.0m
BN) Lou Marson - 450k
BN) Trevor Crowe - 450k
BN)
BN)
SP) Fausto Carmona - 6.29m
SP) Justin Masterson - 450k
SP) Carlos Carrasco - 450k
SP) Mitch Talbot - 450k
SP) David Huff - 450k
RP)
RP)
RP) Tony Sipp - 450k
RP) Jensen Lewis - 750k*
RP) Joe Smith - 750k*
RP) Rafael Perez - 1.0m*
RP) Chris Perez - 2.0m*
Total: 41.35m
The positions in many cases are speculative. If I pencil in a player at a position who did not start there in 2010, it may be because I simply feel he would be the most qualified should 2011 begin today. It does not mean I expect the team to enter the 2011 season with said player manning that positon, so don't read into it too much.
An asterisk denotes an arbitration eligible player and my estimate at what they'll receive. Please note that this is not an exact figure, but should be close.
C) Carlos Santana - 450k
1B) Matt LaPorta - 450k
2B) Luis Valbuena - 450k
3B) Jayson Nix - 450k
SS) Asdrubal Cabrera - 1.5m*
LF) Michael Brantley - 450k
CF) Grady Sizemore - 7.66m
RF) Shin-Soo Choo - 3.0m*
DH) Travis Hafner - 13.0m
BN) Lou Marson - 450k
BN) Trevor Crowe - 450k
BN)
BN)
SP) Fausto Carmona - 6.29m
SP) Justin Masterson - 450k
SP) Carlos Carrasco - 450k
SP) Mitch Talbot - 450k
SP) David Huff - 450k
RP)
RP)
RP) Tony Sipp - 450k
RP) Jensen Lewis - 750k*
RP) Joe Smith - 750k*
RP) Rafael Perez - 1.0m*
RP) Chris Perez - 2.0m*
Total: 41.35m
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Russell Martin as a Potential Catching Option For AL Central Teams?
Catching is always at a premium in baseball, and that's no different now. Two teams in the Central, the Twins and Indians seem to have their catching solutions at hand with Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. But for the other teams in the division, answers are less readily apparent. Near the outset of the 2010 season I wrote a series of articles about the Central's promising young catchers.
Since then, Santana has graduated to the Majors and made an impressive debut by posting a .868 OPS despite a poor BABIP before succumbing to a nasty injury that required surgery. Twins top-prospect Wilson Ramos was dealt to the Nationals where he's provided decent production in limited work.
The other two players, Alex Avila and Tyler Flowers have struggled to varying degrees. Avila has an OPS of just .654 , despite a much improved LD rate with consistent K and BB rates. Flowers has a more respectable .768 OPS in AAA, but that came replete with a 35% K rate that simply wont come anywhere close to cutting it in the Majors.
Of course, we also have to consider the emergence of Wil Myers in Kansas City as one of the better prospects in the game. He's still a few years away however and there are persistent questions as to whether he can stick behind the plate. But we've talked about him recently.
The more immediate catching concerns are with the White Sox and Tigers franchises. Two teams who are already competitive but who could use upgrades at catcher.
The White Sox at one point early in the year were tasked with the difficult decision of whether to deal starting catcher AJ Pierzynski as the team was floundering heading into June. They didn't and went on to post rattle off an impressive run to take the lead in the division. But with the Sox now officially eliminated, and Pierzynski headed toward free agency, attention must be drawn to the future of the position.
Flowers is an option, but his peripherals make him unlikely to succeed at the Majors offensively, while his defensive shortcomings don't seem to have improved by a considerable margin during his time at AAA this season. Unfortunately, he's the only realistic option in the system. Josh Phegley has been decent, but he also has just 72 at-bats at AA and has the same strikeout issues that plague Flowers, with significantly less power.
The Tigers are in a somewhat better position. While presumptive starter Gerald Laird has had two incredibly disappointing seasons in a row, and it appears he'll fail to crack the .600 mark for OPS this year. Yikes. Avila has been better (which isn't exactly saying much) but his season as a whole has still be a disappointment.
So given their proximity to competing, combined with the poor performance the two teams have received from the catchers position, it's not exactly a stretch to assume the teams will be looking to bolster their offense here. With what is shaping up as a poor catching crop in free agency - perhaps led by John Buck off a career year - I'm guessing GMs Kenny Williams and Dave Dombrowski will be scouring other teams rosters to see if they can find an upgrade.
One possible answer could be Russell Martin.
Martin came onto the scene back in 2006 by hitting .282 with a .792 OPS and 10 home runs as a 23 year old rookie. He backed up that performance by posting a .843 OPS in 2007 and a .781 in 2008.
Since then however, Martin's production has fallen off sharply and someone who was once viewed as one of the best young catchers in the game - compared favorably by many in the media to Joe Mauer - has seen his stock drop rapidly as his .680 OPS in 2009 and his .679 mark with 10 games remaining this season are well below average, even by catching standards.
Martin's offensive decline, combined with the fact that he'll be entering his final year of arbitration - where he'll be due for a raise on his 5.05m salary - and the Dodgers precarious ownership/payroll situation have conspired to make what once would've been almost unthinkable, a non-tender, perhaps likely.
The Dodgers are in a position where they're likely going to be forced to trade someone to make payroll for 2011. The most widely speculated names have been those of Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp. Two players who have also been disappointing to some degree, but who are also likely to fetch more in return.
However, it's also possible that they simply non-tender Martin this winter, making him a free agent. The other possibility would be a trade. The Dodgers could try and unload Martin (and the salary he'll make in 2011) for likely little more than minor league filler.
In either case, Martin could make sense for the Tigers or White Sox. Despite Martin's relatively poor performance, he's still been a fair margin better than any of their incumbent options appear to be. He also comes with something you won't find amongst the rest of the free agenct crop.
Upside.
While Martin's production stats have seen sharp declines the past couple years, I still see a lot to like.
Consider, when Martin experienced his most success during his first three seasons, he posted the following marks:
BB Rate (2006/2007/2008):
9.6% - 10.8% - 13.8%
K Rate:
13.7% - 16.5% - 15.0%
LD Rate:
19.9% - 17.5% - 19.4%
And now the marks for the past two seasons:
BB Rate (2009/2010):
11.7% - 12.4%
K Rate:
15.8% - 18.4%
LD Rate:
20.5% - 20.6%
As you can see, the rate stats really haven't changed much at all. Fundamentally, Martin remains the same hitter, posting above average strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. Another important rate, ground ball rate, remains unchanged as well. There is little reason that performance metrics that for three years supported solid production should suddenly be so incapable of doing so in the future.
The ground ball rate, it should be mentioned is the only real concern. It's always been consistent, and bad. Between 48.4% and 51.1% every year of his career. The obvious concern with ground ball hitters from a sabermetric point of view is that they rarely turn into extra base hits. They also tend to hold down a players BABIP if they have poor speed. However, Martin has never had exceptionally poor foot speed. He's actually quite a bit above average as catchers go.
I don't think Martin can replicate the successes he had when he broke into the league, but he should still be capable of providing league average offense and above average defense. To that end, even as he's posted poor offensive showings the past two years, he's posted WAR marks of 2.2 and 2.1 in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
With the Tigers set to shed Laird's 3.9m contract, and the White Sox dropping Pierzynski's 6.25m - there should be payroll available for both teams to pursue Martin via free agency or a trade, should they prefer to do so.
Since then, Santana has graduated to the Majors and made an impressive debut by posting a .868 OPS despite a poor BABIP before succumbing to a nasty injury that required surgery. Twins top-prospect Wilson Ramos was dealt to the Nationals where he's provided decent production in limited work.
The other two players, Alex Avila and Tyler Flowers have struggled to varying degrees. Avila has an OPS of just .654 , despite a much improved LD rate with consistent K and BB rates. Flowers has a more respectable .768 OPS in AAA, but that came replete with a 35% K rate that simply wont come anywhere close to cutting it in the Majors.
Of course, we also have to consider the emergence of Wil Myers in Kansas City as one of the better prospects in the game. He's still a few years away however and there are persistent questions as to whether he can stick behind the plate. But we've talked about him recently.
The more immediate catching concerns are with the White Sox and Tigers franchises. Two teams who are already competitive but who could use upgrades at catcher.
The White Sox at one point early in the year were tasked with the difficult decision of whether to deal starting catcher AJ Pierzynski as the team was floundering heading into June. They didn't and went on to post rattle off an impressive run to take the lead in the division. But with the Sox now officially eliminated, and Pierzynski headed toward free agency, attention must be drawn to the future of the position.
Flowers is an option, but his peripherals make him unlikely to succeed at the Majors offensively, while his defensive shortcomings don't seem to have improved by a considerable margin during his time at AAA this season. Unfortunately, he's the only realistic option in the system. Josh Phegley has been decent, but he also has just 72 at-bats at AA and has the same strikeout issues that plague Flowers, with significantly less power.
The Tigers are in a somewhat better position. While presumptive starter Gerald Laird has had two incredibly disappointing seasons in a row, and it appears he'll fail to crack the .600 mark for OPS this year. Yikes. Avila has been better (which isn't exactly saying much) but his season as a whole has still be a disappointment.
So given their proximity to competing, combined with the poor performance the two teams have received from the catchers position, it's not exactly a stretch to assume the teams will be looking to bolster their offense here. With what is shaping up as a poor catching crop in free agency - perhaps led by John Buck off a career year - I'm guessing GMs Kenny Williams and Dave Dombrowski will be scouring other teams rosters to see if they can find an upgrade.
One possible answer could be Russell Martin.
Martin came onto the scene back in 2006 by hitting .282 with a .792 OPS and 10 home runs as a 23 year old rookie. He backed up that performance by posting a .843 OPS in 2007 and a .781 in 2008.
Since then however, Martin's production has fallen off sharply and someone who was once viewed as one of the best young catchers in the game - compared favorably by many in the media to Joe Mauer - has seen his stock drop rapidly as his .680 OPS in 2009 and his .679 mark with 10 games remaining this season are well below average, even by catching standards.
Martin's offensive decline, combined with the fact that he'll be entering his final year of arbitration - where he'll be due for a raise on his 5.05m salary - and the Dodgers precarious ownership/payroll situation have conspired to make what once would've been almost unthinkable, a non-tender, perhaps likely.
The Dodgers are in a position where they're likely going to be forced to trade someone to make payroll for 2011. The most widely speculated names have been those of Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp. Two players who have also been disappointing to some degree, but who are also likely to fetch more in return.
However, it's also possible that they simply non-tender Martin this winter, making him a free agent. The other possibility would be a trade. The Dodgers could try and unload Martin (and the salary he'll make in 2011) for likely little more than minor league filler.
In either case, Martin could make sense for the Tigers or White Sox. Despite Martin's relatively poor performance, he's still been a fair margin better than any of their incumbent options appear to be. He also comes with something you won't find amongst the rest of the free agenct crop.
Upside.
While Martin's production stats have seen sharp declines the past couple years, I still see a lot to like.
Consider, when Martin experienced his most success during his first three seasons, he posted the following marks:
BB Rate (2006/2007/2008):
9.6% - 10.8% - 13.8%
K Rate:
13.7% - 16.5% - 15.0%
LD Rate:
19.9% - 17.5% - 19.4%
And now the marks for the past two seasons:
BB Rate (2009/2010):
11.7% - 12.4%
K Rate:
15.8% - 18.4%
LD Rate:
20.5% - 20.6%
As you can see, the rate stats really haven't changed much at all. Fundamentally, Martin remains the same hitter, posting above average strikeout, walk, and line drive rates. Another important rate, ground ball rate, remains unchanged as well. There is little reason that performance metrics that for three years supported solid production should suddenly be so incapable of doing so in the future.
The ground ball rate, it should be mentioned is the only real concern. It's always been consistent, and bad. Between 48.4% and 51.1% every year of his career. The obvious concern with ground ball hitters from a sabermetric point of view is that they rarely turn into extra base hits. They also tend to hold down a players BABIP if they have poor speed. However, Martin has never had exceptionally poor foot speed. He's actually quite a bit above average as catchers go.
I don't think Martin can replicate the successes he had when he broke into the league, but he should still be capable of providing league average offense and above average defense. To that end, even as he's posted poor offensive showings the past two years, he's posted WAR marks of 2.2 and 2.1 in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
With the Tigers set to shed Laird's 3.9m contract, and the White Sox dropping Pierzynski's 6.25m - there should be payroll available for both teams to pursue Martin via free agency or a trade, should they prefer to do so.
Morning Links for 9-23-10
- The leadoff has to be easy right? The Twins clinched the AL Central.
- Royals second baseman Chris Getz will miss the remainder of the season with a concussion. The injury was sustained when Getz was hit in the helmet by a throw from AJ Pierzynski on September 12th.
- There have been rumors the Royals would consider moving their young ace... Royals Authority has An Early Start To The Grienke Rumor Mill.
- Implications of Moving Wil Myers From Catcher To Another Position.
- Indians Call Up Two Minor Leaguers From AAA.
- Parker Hageman of Over The Baggy With Two Excellent Pieces. Danny Valencia's Power Generation and Brian Duensing's Very Good Slider.
- Paul Konerko could walk away from baseball this offseason if he doesn't like the offers he gets? Color me skeptical. Hopefully seeing what happened with Jermaine Dye this past off season has him ready for the fact that he's not going to be getting a mega-deal anywhere.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Projecting Brennan Boesch's 2011 Season
Yesterday I wrote about Carlos Guillen's microfracture procedure. But before any of that happened, Guillen went to the disabled list with a strained hamstring back in April that opened the door for Brennan Boesch to come in. Boesch was hitting .379 for AAA Toledo and the Tigers thought he could help fill in at designated hitter.
Boy we're they right about that.
Boesch proceeded to take Detroit by storm, posting a .973 OPS in May, and a stunning 1.025 mark in June. During that two month stretch he blasted 26 extra base hits, including 11 home runs in just 188 at-bats while driving in 36. Things went awry after that however and since the end of June, he's struggled to a .204/.287/.274 mark in the 226 at-bats since then.
So what gives?
Well, as is so often the case when relatively unknown players surge to incredible heights, there was a pretty significant amount of luck involved. During Boesch's incredible two month run he was buoyed by a BABIP of .384 - obviously a completely unsustainable rate. Since then he's suffered the predictable regression that always eventually follows. When paired with Brennan's Minor League track record of mediocrity his decline shouldn't have come as a huge surprise.
That being said, there are things to like about the 25 year old's game. He's a big body at 6'6" from the left side of the plate and he uses that ample frame to generate plus power. Many of the homeruns he hit we're of the definite no-doubt variety. That power was evident in the minors as well as he jacked 28 home runs as a 24 year old at AA Erie last year. He's also got a plus arm and moves well in the outfield, especially given his frame, getting consistently good reads on fly balls off the bat.
Brennan's draw backs are a poor eye at the plate - he struck out in 19.7% of his Minor League at-bats, while walking in just 5.9% of his plate appearances. And poor contact rates - a MiLB batting average of just .273 rarely translates well in the Majors.
In the Major's Boesch had a propensity for getting out on his front foot in an effort to get inside the ball and pull it to right. That has made him extremely susceptible to off-speed pitches as well as fastball inside. His batting averages against sliders this year has been just .235 and against changeups he's been even worse at .228.
Essentially Major League pitchers learned very quickly that you could get inside of Boesch's power by pounding him inside and his lack of plus bat speed has really hurt him.
I think Brennan has the raw tools to eventually be a solid if unspectacular hitter. His plus power will always play well but he's going to have to learn to adjust. You can cheat pitchers in the minors by letting your hips fly open, but you can't get away with that at this level. It might cut down on his homerun totals, but if the Tigers can teach him to stay back and stay inside the ball more often, he can stick. His defense should, at the very least keep him from being a defensive liability while giving him the possibility of being an asset.
I'm certainly not bullish on Boesch but I think he could provide a long-term line of something in the neighborhood of .250/.320/.450. I'm sure that's not what some Tiger fans want to see, but it's really not that bad at all. That's close to league average offense in right with the potential for above average defense. Overall, he's a solid player. Just probably not the star Tigers fan might've thought they had stumbled onto in June.
Boy we're they right about that.
Boesch proceeded to take Detroit by storm, posting a .973 OPS in May, and a stunning 1.025 mark in June. During that two month stretch he blasted 26 extra base hits, including 11 home runs in just 188 at-bats while driving in 36. Things went awry after that however and since the end of June, he's struggled to a .204/.287/.274 mark in the 226 at-bats since then.
So what gives?
Well, as is so often the case when relatively unknown players surge to incredible heights, there was a pretty significant amount of luck involved. During Boesch's incredible two month run he was buoyed by a BABIP of .384 - obviously a completely unsustainable rate. Since then he's suffered the predictable regression that always eventually follows. When paired with Brennan's Minor League track record of mediocrity his decline shouldn't have come as a huge surprise.
That being said, there are things to like about the 25 year old's game. He's a big body at 6'6" from the left side of the plate and he uses that ample frame to generate plus power. Many of the homeruns he hit we're of the definite no-doubt variety. That power was evident in the minors as well as he jacked 28 home runs as a 24 year old at AA Erie last year. He's also got a plus arm and moves well in the outfield, especially given his frame, getting consistently good reads on fly balls off the bat.
Brennan's draw backs are a poor eye at the plate - he struck out in 19.7% of his Minor League at-bats, while walking in just 5.9% of his plate appearances. And poor contact rates - a MiLB batting average of just .273 rarely translates well in the Majors.
In the Major's Boesch had a propensity for getting out on his front foot in an effort to get inside the ball and pull it to right. That has made him extremely susceptible to off-speed pitches as well as fastball inside. His batting averages against sliders this year has been just .235 and against changeups he's been even worse at .228.
Essentially Major League pitchers learned very quickly that you could get inside of Boesch's power by pounding him inside and his lack of plus bat speed has really hurt him.
I think Brennan has the raw tools to eventually be a solid if unspectacular hitter. His plus power will always play well but he's going to have to learn to adjust. You can cheat pitchers in the minors by letting your hips fly open, but you can't get away with that at this level. It might cut down on his homerun totals, but if the Tigers can teach him to stay back and stay inside the ball more often, he can stick. His defense should, at the very least keep him from being a defensive liability while giving him the possibility of being an asset.
I'm certainly not bullish on Boesch but I think he could provide a long-term line of something in the neighborhood of .250/.320/.450. I'm sure that's not what some Tiger fans want to see, but it's really not that bad at all. That's close to league average offense in right with the potential for above average defense. Overall, he's a solid player. Just probably not the star Tigers fan might've thought they had stumbled onto in June.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Travis Hafner's Misleading Second Half Surge
There has been much rejoicing in Cleveland since the All-Star break about the resurgent performance of Travis Hafner who has performed exceptionally well. Hafner has put together one of his best prolonged stretches in, well, a long time. All told, he's managed a .320/.388/.504 line that, if extrapolated over a full year, would be his best OPS since 2006.
The Indians are obviously an offensively challenged organization. Beyond Shin-Soo Choo (who might be the current reigning champion in the most-under-rated-player contest), and Carlos Santana, the Tribe lacks much in the way of legitimate firepower. Yes, players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt LaPorta have the potential to be solid supporting bats, but they need more. Cabrera's best season was a .799 OPS mark in 2009, and LaPorta has yet to realize the considerable potential many once saw in him.
An effective Hafner, even at a rate of production significantly less than that he produced during his peak years would be a significant boost to one of the weakest lineup in the American League. Indeed a lineup featuring Pronk at his second-half .892 OPS, Choo, and Santana could compete against most lineups provided the team could bring in a couple extra complementary bats to augment the top and bottom of the order.
Unfortunately, it appears that Hafner's second half resurgence is little more than a fluke resulting from an unsustainable .407 BABIP. This from a player with a career mark of .316. Sadly, nothing fundamental has changed for Hafner, his strikeout, walk, and line drive rates, along with his ISO remain essentially unchanged during the streak.
The Indians need to generate production from the middle of their lineup in a bad way. But they'll have to find some way other than relying upon Hafner, because he's not going to be the answer.
The Indians are obviously an offensively challenged organization. Beyond Shin-Soo Choo (who might be the current reigning champion in the most-under-rated-player contest), and Carlos Santana, the Tribe lacks much in the way of legitimate firepower. Yes, players like Asdrubal Cabrera and Matt LaPorta have the potential to be solid supporting bats, but they need more. Cabrera's best season was a .799 OPS mark in 2009, and LaPorta has yet to realize the considerable potential many once saw in him.
An effective Hafner, even at a rate of production significantly less than that he produced during his peak years would be a significant boost to one of the weakest lineup in the American League. Indeed a lineup featuring Pronk at his second-half .892 OPS, Choo, and Santana could compete against most lineups provided the team could bring in a couple extra complementary bats to augment the top and bottom of the order.
Unfortunately, it appears that Hafner's second half resurgence is little more than a fluke resulting from an unsustainable .407 BABIP. This from a player with a career mark of .316. Sadly, nothing fundamental has changed for Hafner, his strikeout, walk, and line drive rates, along with his ISO remain essentially unchanged during the streak.
The Indians need to generate production from the middle of their lineup in a bad way. But they'll have to find some way other than relying upon Hafner, because he's not going to be the answer.
Twins Notes
Justin Morneau remains out of the Twins lineup and there is still no evidence that he's going to return any time soon. Though I suppose this can be taken as a positive. Morneau has pretty much reached the point where it's become unlikely that he'll have enough time to rehab and find his swing prior to the playoffs. That said, it's good to see that the Twins front office realizes that Morneau's long-term health and ability to contribute is vastly more important than his ability to do so now. Always nice to know that not every team is run like the Mets.
That's unfortunate for the Twins. So is this...
The Twins will likely be Mauerless in Minnesota for at least the next few games after Joe Mauer strained his knee. Thankfully for the Twins this seems like a minimal issue. They're going to simply give Mauer all the time he needs to rest. Of course, this makes last weeks sweep in Chicago all the more important as it affords the team the luxury of playing this as safe as they like.
Should make for some interesting lineups however with center fielder Denard Span battling a hurt shoulder, and regular DH Jason Kubel out with a sore wrist. The Twins will be without their opening day leadoff man, #3/4/5 hitters. Can anyone imagine the outcry if the Yankees were without Jeter, Tiexiera, A-Rod, and Posada? Oh the humanity!
That's unfortunate for the Twins. So is this...
The Twins will likely be Mauerless in Minnesota for at least the next few games after Joe Mauer strained his knee. Thankfully for the Twins this seems like a minimal issue. They're going to simply give Mauer all the time he needs to rest. Of course, this makes last weeks sweep in Chicago all the more important as it affords the team the luxury of playing this as safe as they like.
Should make for some interesting lineups however with center fielder Denard Span battling a hurt shoulder, and regular DH Jason Kubel out with a sore wrist. The Twins will be without their opening day leadoff man, #3/4/5 hitters. Can anyone imagine the outcry if the Yankees were without Jeter, Tiexiera, A-Rod, and Posada? Oh the humanity!
Wil Myers, The Next Carlos Santana?
Once again with the season winding down, Royals fans have little left to follow. One thing they can look forward to however is the play of Wil Myers. The raw but extremely talented Myers was drafted in the third round by the Royals who went above slot to sign the talented youngster who was considered on of the more intriguing high school bats in the '09 draft class.
The Royals got Myers' feet wet in 2009, sending him to the rookie leagues where he posted impressive numbers in a small 22 game sampling of things to come. They then opened him up at Low-A Burlington to open 2010. I tend to think that's awfully aggressive, but the Royals are known for pushing young bats they like pretty hard. He didn't disappoint as he posted a .908 OPS in 68 games there before a mid-season promotion to High-A Wilmington of the Carolina League. In a league where the average OPS for 2010 was just around .725, the 19 year old Myers posted a .966 mark in 58 games on the back of a .345 batting average.
Myers' average in High-A was aided by an unsustainably high BABIP, but there is a lot to like going forward in the peripherals. Registering 94 strikeouts in 447 at-bats, Myers does strikeout more than you'd like to see, but given that he was a 19 year old playing against guys usually at least 2-3 years his senior, that's far from concerning at this point. Extremely encouraging was his walk rate as he drew 85 free passes over the same period. The home run numbers don't exactly leap off the page - just 14 in 447 at-bats, but again, given the age and level, that's a very impressive number. In addition Myers showed he can run at least a little bit, registering three triples and twelve steals.
Defensively, the questions that plagued Myers out high school remain. Saying that of course should come as no surprise what-so-ever. He's in his first full year of catching and he's going to need a few more years to really develop that aspect of his game. That is of course, if it ever does develop. Not every catcher works out - indeed, many don't. But we won't have an answer to that question for at least a couple more years. Concerning ourselves too much with it now hardly seems worthwhile.
The exciting part to me is when you start playing the comparison game. And, as the title of this post no doubt suggests, I'm referring to the Indians Carlos Santana. Santana, a catching transplant didn't even get his first whiff of pro-ball until age 20. But at age 22 at High-A posted similarly eye-popping numbers with nearly identical strikeout and walk rates.
Making such simple comparisons is foolhardy - but it's fun. In this case, given that Myers is two years junior to where Santana was after exploding onto the scene in 2008, one can at least begin to build some dreams on the youngster. And in a city that has suffered so much for the past 25 years, dreams are a good thing. Especially when they come wrapped up in a talented young catcher.
The Royals got Myers' feet wet in 2009, sending him to the rookie leagues where he posted impressive numbers in a small 22 game sampling of things to come. They then opened him up at Low-A Burlington to open 2010. I tend to think that's awfully aggressive, but the Royals are known for pushing young bats they like pretty hard. He didn't disappoint as he posted a .908 OPS in 68 games there before a mid-season promotion to High-A Wilmington of the Carolina League. In a league where the average OPS for 2010 was just around .725, the 19 year old Myers posted a .966 mark in 58 games on the back of a .345 batting average.
Myers' average in High-A was aided by an unsustainably high BABIP, but there is a lot to like going forward in the peripherals. Registering 94 strikeouts in 447 at-bats, Myers does strikeout more than you'd like to see, but given that he was a 19 year old playing against guys usually at least 2-3 years his senior, that's far from concerning at this point. Extremely encouraging was his walk rate as he drew 85 free passes over the same period. The home run numbers don't exactly leap off the page - just 14 in 447 at-bats, but again, given the age and level, that's a very impressive number. In addition Myers showed he can run at least a little bit, registering three triples and twelve steals.
Defensively, the questions that plagued Myers out high school remain. Saying that of course should come as no surprise what-so-ever. He's in his first full year of catching and he's going to need a few more years to really develop that aspect of his game. That is of course, if it ever does develop. Not every catcher works out - indeed, many don't. But we won't have an answer to that question for at least a couple more years. Concerning ourselves too much with it now hardly seems worthwhile.
The exciting part to me is when you start playing the comparison game. And, as the title of this post no doubt suggests, I'm referring to the Indians Carlos Santana. Santana, a catching transplant didn't even get his first whiff of pro-ball until age 20. But at age 22 at High-A posted similarly eye-popping numbers with nearly identical strikeout and walk rates.
Making such simple comparisons is foolhardy - but it's fun. In this case, given that Myers is two years junior to where Santana was after exploding onto the scene in 2008, one can at least begin to build some dreams on the youngster. And in a city that has suffered so much for the past 25 years, dreams are a good thing. Especially when they come wrapped up in a talented young catcher.
Carlos Guillen Has Microfracture Surgery
Carlos Guillen finally went under the knife to have microfracture surgery this past Friday. The produce is relatively knew and involves doing precisely what the name implies - creating many miniature fractures which is supposed to help improve the overall strength of the bone. That might sound odd, but in general, bones, when broken, heal much stronger than they were before. This is the general premise behind the surgery.
The time table for the produce is difficult. While ideal circumstances would have the player back on his feet in four months, and playing again in six, that's not always the case. The surgery is most common amongst basketball players and not infrequently, those players have taken much longer to fully recover, or simply never have. In terms of baseball players, the only notable cases has been those of Brian Giles and Grady Sizemore. Giles never made it back and Sizemore is still struggling two years later. I don't say that to create panic - but to be realistic. Guillen is facing a long, complicated recovery process, and one that doesn't always go well.
For the Tigers as a franchise, the injury and the surgery have significant on-field and front-office implications. Guillen has struggled through injuries the past few years, playing just 113 games in 2008, 81 in 2009, and just 68 in 2010. All the while he's seen his defensive abilities predictably decline as his range has diminished. That said, he was managing to play a passable 2nd base (-5.0 UZR/150) in a small sample size after taking over for the extremely disappointing Scott Sizemore earlier in the year. before being hurt in a collision with the Yankees Brett Gardner.
In Guillen's stead the little heralded Will Rhymes has taken over and been a pleasant surprise. Rhymes has posted a .293/.341/.369 triple slash on a perfectly sustainable .319 BABIP. At 27 years old the slightly built Rhymes possesses neither significant upside, nor any power to speak of, but he's a solid contact hitter and plays decent defense. Long-term, he's not the answer at the position, but provided he doesn't show any significant decline, there is little reason to believe that he can't continue to play passable (-8.5 UZR/150) defense while providing a solid bottom-of-the-order OBP.
In a more ideal world however, Sizemore will begin to perform to his fairly impressive capabilities. While the Tigers had expected Sizemore to be ready to take over for the departed Placido Polanco it appears that an injury suffered the previous fall in the Arizona Fall League had not yet full healed and he struggled significantly. After being demoted early in the year, he pulled his game together somewhat, posting progressively better numbers each month for AAA Toledo (save for a pretty rough month of August). In his limited time since that return he's performed well, launching two homeruns in the Tigers past two games.
For the remainder of this year, Manager Jim Leyland will go with a Rhymes/Sizemore platoon. However, he's stated that he does not want to have to platoon his second baseman next year, citing concerns over the continuity of the teams double-play combination. The Tigers second base job is likely to open 2010 as an open competition between Sizemore and Rhymes. I would have to believe that the best possible option would be for the younger, more talented Sizemore to win the job outright and hold on to it. Something he failed to do this year.
The final aspect to this situation is Guillen's 13m financial commitment for 2011. Odds are that the Tigers have Guillen's contract insured, as is the case with most significant contracts. It's also likely that the insurance would cover roughly half of his salary in the event that Guillen was unable to play in 2011. Should Guillen be physically able to play however, the Tigers would likely not be able to collet insurnace monies and would, therefore, be stuck paying a player who might have very little to contribute, even if used strictly as a designated hitter. Long-term, the injury is thankfully less impactful. 2011 was Guillen's final year under contract and it was unlikely he'd be back with the Tigers (or if so, at a greatly reduced cost).
Of course, we always hope for the best - for the player and the organization - and that's no different in this case. But the Tigers need to be prepared to go forward in the event that their former All-Star shortstop is either incapable of performing well - or at all.
The time table for the produce is difficult. While ideal circumstances would have the player back on his feet in four months, and playing again in six, that's not always the case. The surgery is most common amongst basketball players and not infrequently, those players have taken much longer to fully recover, or simply never have. In terms of baseball players, the only notable cases has been those of Brian Giles and Grady Sizemore. Giles never made it back and Sizemore is still struggling two years later. I don't say that to create panic - but to be realistic. Guillen is facing a long, complicated recovery process, and one that doesn't always go well.
For the Tigers as a franchise, the injury and the surgery have significant on-field and front-office implications. Guillen has struggled through injuries the past few years, playing just 113 games in 2008, 81 in 2009, and just 68 in 2010. All the while he's seen his defensive abilities predictably decline as his range has diminished. That said, he was managing to play a passable 2nd base (-5.0 UZR/150) in a small sample size after taking over for the extremely disappointing Scott Sizemore earlier in the year. before being hurt in a collision with the Yankees Brett Gardner.
In Guillen's stead the little heralded Will Rhymes has taken over and been a pleasant surprise. Rhymes has posted a .293/.341/.369 triple slash on a perfectly sustainable .319 BABIP. At 27 years old the slightly built Rhymes possesses neither significant upside, nor any power to speak of, but he's a solid contact hitter and plays decent defense. Long-term, he's not the answer at the position, but provided he doesn't show any significant decline, there is little reason to believe that he can't continue to play passable (-8.5 UZR/150) defense while providing a solid bottom-of-the-order OBP.
In a more ideal world however, Sizemore will begin to perform to his fairly impressive capabilities. While the Tigers had expected Sizemore to be ready to take over for the departed Placido Polanco it appears that an injury suffered the previous fall in the Arizona Fall League had not yet full healed and he struggled significantly. After being demoted early in the year, he pulled his game together somewhat, posting progressively better numbers each month for AAA Toledo (save for a pretty rough month of August). In his limited time since that return he's performed well, launching two homeruns in the Tigers past two games.
For the remainder of this year, Manager Jim Leyland will go with a Rhymes/Sizemore platoon. However, he's stated that he does not want to have to platoon his second baseman next year, citing concerns over the continuity of the teams double-play combination. The Tigers second base job is likely to open 2010 as an open competition between Sizemore and Rhymes. I would have to believe that the best possible option would be for the younger, more talented Sizemore to win the job outright and hold on to it. Something he failed to do this year.
The final aspect to this situation is Guillen's 13m financial commitment for 2011. Odds are that the Tigers have Guillen's contract insured, as is the case with most significant contracts. It's also likely that the insurance would cover roughly half of his salary in the event that Guillen was unable to play in 2011. Should Guillen be physically able to play however, the Tigers would likely not be able to collet insurnace monies and would, therefore, be stuck paying a player who might have very little to contribute, even if used strictly as a designated hitter. Long-term, the injury is thankfully less impactful. 2011 was Guillen's final year under contract and it was unlikely he'd be back with the Tigers (or if so, at a greatly reduced cost).
Of course, we always hope for the best - for the player and the organization - and that's no different in this case. But the Tigers need to be prepared to go forward in the event that their former All-Star shortstop is either incapable of performing well - or at all.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Aaron Laffey Back For The Third Time
For the third time this season Aaron Laffey will be joining the Indians. This time he'll be rejoining the team because Justin Masterson's season will either be over after his start this evening, or shortly thereafter. That and AAA Columbus just finished off their season by winning the Governors Cup, freeing Laffey up to rejoin the big club.
Once considered a long-term part of the back-end of the Indians rotation, Laffey has never managed to stick in the Majors. Quite simply, Laffey walks too many to overcome his inability to miss bats. That hasn't changed and Laffey and at this point, Laffey's long-term potential may be as a lefty specialist, but even in that regard, he isn't very good.
Once considered a long-term part of the back-end of the Indians rotation, Laffey has never managed to stick in the Majors. Quite simply, Laffey walks too many to overcome his inability to miss bats. That hasn't changed and Laffey and at this point, Laffey's long-term potential may be as a lefty specialist, but even in that regard, he isn't very good.
Ryan Raburn Deserves a Real Chance
In 2009, the Tigers opened the season with Josh Anderson as their opening day left fielder and handed innings to no less than seven different players at the position before Ryan Raburn finally cemented himself at the position, closing the season with a very good run, by posting an OPS of 1.043 on a not wildly unsustainable (though still very high) BABIP of .350.
That display of offensive prowess wasn't enough however to keep the Tigers from seeking an upgrade, and this offseason they brought in All-Star veteran Johnny Damon to try and solidify the position. Damon was coming off a very strong 2009 of his own that saw him post a .854 OPS - his best mark since 2004. However, most teams shied away from him and his asking price on the basis that most viewed him as more of a DH than regular in left and over concerns that his performance had more to do with other factors (like the shiny new stadium in the Bronx). But the Tigers saw an opportunity to buy low on a guy who had finished the game of musical chairs that is the MLB off season without a job, and signed him for a one year 8m deal.
It turns out those concerns were largely justified. Damon posted an OPS of just .763. His defense has been ok, as he posted a +5.3 UZR/150 in limited action, getting most of his playing time at DH when Carlos Guillen (again) landed himself on the disabled list and Brennan Boesch emerged as an offensive force through the first half.
Raburn was again relegated to bench duty, pinch hitting work, and the occasional spot start. Not surprisingly, he struggled with the inconsistent at-bats. But then Magglio Ordonez went down with injury, and Boesch eventually came back to Earth after his BABIP fell out of the 400s. Suddenly there was another chance for Raburn.
Again, Raburn has taken his chance at every day work and run with it. Since Ordonez went down on July 24th, Raburn has picked up the slack, hitting .333 with a 1.005 OPS and 11 home runs in 173 at-bats. After posting a .891 OPS in 2009, he's backed it up with a .827 this year and for his career - one that spans nearly a thousand at-bats - he now has an OPS of .802. And, despite a reputation of struggling against righties, he's posted OPS marks of .800 in 2009 and .769 in 2010
There should be little doubt about it, he can hit.
To be clear, Raburn is a liability in the field, but his defense in left throughout his career has been passable. I tend to think the +1.7 UZR/150 in left that he's accumulated throughout his career isn't indicative of his real fielding abilities (which aren't that good) but he's not nearly as bad as the reputation he's received either.
In total, Ryan Raburn is a guy who can, and will, hit. He'll do so while playing a below average left field, but his bat should more than make up for that and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to provide 2/3 WAR for the next few years.
Oh yeah, and he won't run the Tigers 8m either.
That display of offensive prowess wasn't enough however to keep the Tigers from seeking an upgrade, and this offseason they brought in All-Star veteran Johnny Damon to try and solidify the position. Damon was coming off a very strong 2009 of his own that saw him post a .854 OPS - his best mark since 2004. However, most teams shied away from him and his asking price on the basis that most viewed him as more of a DH than regular in left and over concerns that his performance had more to do with other factors (like the shiny new stadium in the Bronx). But the Tigers saw an opportunity to buy low on a guy who had finished the game of musical chairs that is the MLB off season without a job, and signed him for a one year 8m deal.
It turns out those concerns were largely justified. Damon posted an OPS of just .763. His defense has been ok, as he posted a +5.3 UZR/150 in limited action, getting most of his playing time at DH when Carlos Guillen (again) landed himself on the disabled list and Brennan Boesch emerged as an offensive force through the first half.
Raburn was again relegated to bench duty, pinch hitting work, and the occasional spot start. Not surprisingly, he struggled with the inconsistent at-bats. But then Magglio Ordonez went down with injury, and Boesch eventually came back to Earth after his BABIP fell out of the 400s. Suddenly there was another chance for Raburn.
Again, Raburn has taken his chance at every day work and run with it. Since Ordonez went down on July 24th, Raburn has picked up the slack, hitting .333 with a 1.005 OPS and 11 home runs in 173 at-bats. After posting a .891 OPS in 2009, he's backed it up with a .827 this year and for his career - one that spans nearly a thousand at-bats - he now has an OPS of .802. And, despite a reputation of struggling against righties, he's posted OPS marks of .800 in 2009 and .769 in 2010
There should be little doubt about it, he can hit.
To be clear, Raburn is a liability in the field, but his defense in left throughout his career has been passable. I tend to think the +1.7 UZR/150 in left that he's accumulated throughout his career isn't indicative of his real fielding abilities (which aren't that good) but he's not nearly as bad as the reputation he's received either.
In total, Ryan Raburn is a guy who can, and will, hit. He'll do so while playing a below average left field, but his bat should more than make up for that and I can't see any reason why he shouldn't be able to provide 2/3 WAR for the next few years.
Oh yeah, and he won't run the Tigers 8m either.
Examining Brent Morel
With the 2010 season on ice after being swept at home by the Twins to put them nine games out of first, the White Sox have turned to playing their youngsters. One of those players is third baseman Brent Morel. Earlier in the season the Sox gave Dayan Viciedo a shot but his inability to make consistent contact combined with poor defense at third made that a short-lived experiment. There certainly is no guarantee that the Morel experience will last any longer or be any more effective, but with 2010's regular third baseman Omar Vizquel, who worked himself into the role more by happenstance, not getting any younger the Sox are doing their due diligence by getting the youngsters some at-bats.
Morel split his 2010 season between AA and AAA posting an OPS of .806 at the first stop and .851 at the second. He still strikes out a bit more than you'd like and his walk rates are pretty anemic, but at 23 he's still young for his level and there is plenty of reason to hope that he'll improve on those numbers some more. Defensively he's solid but unspectacular, though he's already made a couple minor gaffs. Undoubtedly the White Sox are going to want to see him iron out his game some more in AAA again next year.
In his short tenure with the big club he's already clubbed a pair of homeruns in just 12 at-bats. That power wont last - he's hit just 32 home runs in 1,207 minor league at-bats - but his 10 home runs between AA and AAA at just 23 suggest he has 15-20 homerun pop as his offensive game develops. His .320 average in the minors this year is largely the result of a huge .372 BABIP but he looks like a guy who can hit .270-.280 over his career.
Actually, he reminds me a little bit of the Twins Danny Valencia and I think their offensive games project similarly. Like Valencia last year, there were questions about his defense, and Morel will need to answers those questions for the better, but overall, the complete package looks like a guy who will be a solid if unspectacular Major Leaguer for quite a few years to come.
At just 21 years old, Viciedo is the more interesting prospect, especially with his huge power, but he's got tons of holes in his game. He strikes out far too much, doesn't walk nearly enough, and wont hit for enough average as is. To say nothing of his defense, which could generously be described as awful. Of course it's extremely important to remember that he's just 21 and spent this year splitting time between AAA and the Majors. He's got plenty of time to figure his game out. But in terms of projectability, you have to like Morel.
Morel split his 2010 season between AA and AAA posting an OPS of .806 at the first stop and .851 at the second. He still strikes out a bit more than you'd like and his walk rates are pretty anemic, but at 23 he's still young for his level and there is plenty of reason to hope that he'll improve on those numbers some more. Defensively he's solid but unspectacular, though he's already made a couple minor gaffs. Undoubtedly the White Sox are going to want to see him iron out his game some more in AAA again next year.
In his short tenure with the big club he's already clubbed a pair of homeruns in just 12 at-bats. That power wont last - he's hit just 32 home runs in 1,207 minor league at-bats - but his 10 home runs between AA and AAA at just 23 suggest he has 15-20 homerun pop as his offensive game develops. His .320 average in the minors this year is largely the result of a huge .372 BABIP but he looks like a guy who can hit .270-.280 over his career.
Actually, he reminds me a little bit of the Twins Danny Valencia and I think their offensive games project similarly. Like Valencia last year, there were questions about his defense, and Morel will need to answers those questions for the better, but overall, the complete package looks like a guy who will be a solid if unspectacular Major Leaguer for quite a few years to come.
At just 21 years old, Viciedo is the more interesting prospect, especially with his huge power, but he's got tons of holes in his game. He strikes out far too much, doesn't walk nearly enough, and wont hit for enough average as is. To say nothing of his defense, which could generously be described as awful. Of course it's extremely important to remember that he's just 21 and spent this year splitting time between AAA and the Majors. He's got plenty of time to figure his game out. But in terms of projectability, you have to like Morel.
Justin Masterson Making His Final Appearance Of 2010?
The Indians have stated that they'd like to keep Justin Masterson under 180 innings this year. Initially they had implemented their plan to move him to the bullpen a week ago, but after an abbreviated start by Mitch Talbot, they were forced to put Masterson back into the rotation. Tonight he'll take the mound with 173 innings already on the arm, and the Indians are sticking by their desire to limit his innings in a season that has seen him throw 50 more than last year.
Should Masterson throw the seven innings necessary, he'll likely be done for the season. Or, if he doesn't they may send him to the bullpen. That seems like an unnecessary step to me, but it shouldn't make a huge difference one way or another.
Masterson is an intriguing pitcher who has the peripherals to suggest Major league success: a solid strikeout rate (though that took a dip this year), and a very good ground ball rate. He does need to improve his control however, and if he can't he might be a better fit in the bullpen than he is in the rotation. That said, he's posted xFIP marks in the low fours the past two seasons and one way or another, the Indians should give Masterson every opportunity to stick in the rotation.
Should Masterson throw the seven innings necessary, he'll likely be done for the season. Or, if he doesn't they may send him to the bullpen. That seems like an unnecessary step to me, but it shouldn't make a huge difference one way or another.
Masterson is an intriguing pitcher who has the peripherals to suggest Major league success: a solid strikeout rate (though that took a dip this year), and a very good ground ball rate. He does need to improve his control however, and if he can't he might be a better fit in the bullpen than he is in the rotation. That said, he's posted xFIP marks in the low fours the past two seasons and one way or another, the Indians should give Masterson every opportunity to stick in the rotation.
Royals Dragging Their Feet on David DeJesus' 2011 Option
The Royals hold a 6m team option on David DeJesus for the 2011 season. To me, it seems like an easy option to exercise. DeJesus has been a solid/major contributor to the Royals for a long time and was in the midst of what was possibly his best season ever, posting a .827 OPS until he went down. Throw in the fact that 6m isn't exactly the toughest pill to swallow and DeJesus himself seems to want to be back... this has to be a no brainer right?
Well for some reason with less than a month until a decision needs to be made in regards to the option, Dayton Moore has yet to make a decision regarding that option. It's certainly not time to panic or anything, but given DeJesus' consistent performance and his bargain price - Fangraphs has only once pegged his open-market value at less than 10m since 2005 - it seems silly to drag this out.
Given a somewhat crowded outfield picture looking forward, the Royals seemed poised to move DeJesus this summer and until he broke his thumb, he was one of the better outfield trade chips on the market. That however should not mean the Royals simply cut-bait on DeJesus.
This decision should be made all the easier given that Alex Gordon, who the club sent down to AAA in hopes he could rediscover his swing, has not. Gordon lit up AAA pitching (not a huge shock) while the Royals moved him to left field in order to create a spot Alberto Callaspo - who they promptly traded. But Gordon has yet to translate any of that to the Majors as he's posted an OPS of just .725 since returning.
By all measures DeJesus' option is one that should be exercised. His performance more than justifies it, there are no age concerns, there shouldn't be any concerns about the injury, and it's not like Gordon is banging down the door with his bat or anything. Not having done so already only feeds the impression that the Royals front office just doesn't get it.
Well for some reason with less than a month until a decision needs to be made in regards to the option, Dayton Moore has yet to make a decision regarding that option. It's certainly not time to panic or anything, but given DeJesus' consistent performance and his bargain price - Fangraphs has only once pegged his open-market value at less than 10m since 2005 - it seems silly to drag this out.
Given a somewhat crowded outfield picture looking forward, the Royals seemed poised to move DeJesus this summer and until he broke his thumb, he was one of the better outfield trade chips on the market. That however should not mean the Royals simply cut-bait on DeJesus.
This decision should be made all the easier given that Alex Gordon, who the club sent down to AAA in hopes he could rediscover his swing, has not. Gordon lit up AAA pitching (not a huge shock) while the Royals moved him to left field in order to create a spot Alberto Callaspo - who they promptly traded. But Gordon has yet to translate any of that to the Majors as he's posted an OPS of just .725 since returning.
By all measures DeJesus' option is one that should be exercised. His performance more than justifies it, there are no age concerns, there shouldn't be any concerns about the injury, and it's not like Gordon is banging down the door with his bat or anything. Not having done so already only feeds the impression that the Royals front office just doesn't get it.
Twins Surge In Spite Of Cuddyer
Last year when the Twins lost Justin Morneau to a stress fracture in his lower back on September 12th, they stood 5.5 games out of first place. But, bouyed by a late season hot streak from Morneau's replacement at first, Michael Cuddyer, they managed to come back to claim the division in a dramatic game 163. In Morneau's absence, Cuddyer hit .325 with a 1.073 OPS, slugging eight homeruns in 83 at-bats and driving in 24 runs in just 21 games. Or more simply put, he was a monster.
This year the Twins have again been without Morneau's services - this time since Mid July - and again they have surged in his absence. Hopefully no one is foolish enough to presume that Morneau being out of the Twins lineup is a good thing. We are after all talking about a guy who could've very well won his second MVP award this season had he not gone down with his concussion. Morneau was in the midst of his greatest offensive season ever with an OPS of 1.055 (best in the league at that time) that dwarfed his output from his 2006 campaign. Also important was that Morneau, once criticized by the organization as a defensive liability had developed into an elite defensive first baseman with a 18.0 UZR/150 before he went down.
That the Twins have played so well - they own baseball's best record since the all-star break and have won eleven of their past thirteen - however is the result not of Morneau's replacement, but in spite of him. Indeed, it's a testament to how much deeper and how much better the 2010 iteration of the Minnesota Twins is in comparison to the 2009 version.
After posting perhaps his best offensive season ever last year with a .862 OPS, 124 OPS+, and 3.0 oWAR, Cuddyer has struggled for most of 2010. More notably, since Morneau went down on July 7th, Cuddyer has posted an OPS of just .771, about 20 points below his career average. His bat has been particularly bad of late, with an OPS of just .680 since the beginning of August.
In addition, he's played a questionable first base, allowing multiple matchable balls to sail past while botching far more plays than anyone would like to see en route to a -4.4 UZR in just 62 games. Cuddyer's defensive struggles at first are forgivable - it's difficult after all to credibly criticize a player who is playing out of position because he's the only capable option. But it doesn't make the struggles any less glaring.
The Twins have been without Morneau's services for over two months now - far longer than anyone could've anticipated from a play that looked so benign. While they've fared far better than I think most would've anticipated without their best offensive player, any notion that they don't miss him terribly would be incorrect.
Michael Cuddyer deserves plenty of praise for he unselfish play he's displayed throughout his career, playing essentially anywhere and everywhere he's been asked. But the Twins need Morneau back. Not only for his bat, but for his defense. While Cuddyer is a capable player, the Twins will have a much easier time making a deep run into the playoffs with their regular first baseman than they would with his replacement.
This year the Twins have again been without Morneau's services - this time since Mid July - and again they have surged in his absence. Hopefully no one is foolish enough to presume that Morneau being out of the Twins lineup is a good thing. We are after all talking about a guy who could've very well won his second MVP award this season had he not gone down with his concussion. Morneau was in the midst of his greatest offensive season ever with an OPS of 1.055 (best in the league at that time) that dwarfed his output from his 2006 campaign. Also important was that Morneau, once criticized by the organization as a defensive liability had developed into an elite defensive first baseman with a 18.0 UZR/150 before he went down.
That the Twins have played so well - they own baseball's best record since the all-star break and have won eleven of their past thirteen - however is the result not of Morneau's replacement, but in spite of him. Indeed, it's a testament to how much deeper and how much better the 2010 iteration of the Minnesota Twins is in comparison to the 2009 version.
After posting perhaps his best offensive season ever last year with a .862 OPS, 124 OPS+, and 3.0 oWAR, Cuddyer has struggled for most of 2010. More notably, since Morneau went down on July 7th, Cuddyer has posted an OPS of just .771, about 20 points below his career average. His bat has been particularly bad of late, with an OPS of just .680 since the beginning of August.
In addition, he's played a questionable first base, allowing multiple matchable balls to sail past while botching far more plays than anyone would like to see en route to a -4.4 UZR in just 62 games. Cuddyer's defensive struggles at first are forgivable - it's difficult after all to credibly criticize a player who is playing out of position because he's the only capable option. But it doesn't make the struggles any less glaring.
The Twins have been without Morneau's services for over two months now - far longer than anyone could've anticipated from a play that looked so benign. While they've fared far better than I think most would've anticipated without their best offensive player, any notion that they don't miss him terribly would be incorrect.
Michael Cuddyer deserves plenty of praise for he unselfish play he's displayed throughout his career, playing essentially anywhere and everywhere he's been asked. But the Twins need Morneau back. Not only for his bat, but for his defense. While Cuddyer is a capable player, the Twins will have a much easier time making a deep run into the playoffs with their regular first baseman than they would with his replacement.
Carlas Carrasco Producing For Cleveland
I touched on Carlos Carrasco very briefly earlier this year, but the fact that I've started writing again, coupled with his strong performance over the past month certainly warrants another look.
Back then I wrote;
"Thankfully to say Carrasco can still reach the mid-90's but operates in the 91-93 range, and his fastball still has plenty of life. If the curve and changeup are still at least league average pitches, anyone with a good enough fastball can have some success, but his secondary pitches, namely his curveball will have to regain it's earlier form for him to ever realize his old potential."
Well, Carrasco is living at the high end of my fastball projections, averaging 93.0 and 93.1 mph on his four seam and two seam fastballs respectively. While his curve still hasn't regained it's old form, Carlos has developed some kind of nasty with his changeup. A pitch that for Carrasco just a year ago was more of an after-thought has become a devastating, fall-off-the-table offering as he's gotten hitters to swing and miss at the pitch nearly on nearly a quarter of his offering.s (23.4%)!
Want to know how bad the bottom of this pitch falls out? Just check out the charts. Jimminy cricket. He doesn't possess what I'd consider plus speed differential (8mph+), but with the way that pitch dies, he doesn't seem to need it. Carrasco is also clearly very confident with the pitch, offering it up 23% of the time.
Carrasco's stuff still doesn't project to a top-of-the-rotation kind of arm, but the development of his changeup, coupled with improved control suggest that he should be a strong long-term option in the middle of the Indians roster for the foreseeable future. Speaking of the control, his release points look really, really solid. If he can maintain that kind of consistency he should be able to maintain his improved control. The last thing you'd like to see would be for him to get on top of his curve a little better. He's getting solid depth on the pitch, but he's still a little too 10-4 with the pitch for my liking.
Looking at the FIP metrics, he's looking solid across the board. He's got slightly above average strikeout and walk rates and he's inducing 68.7% ground balls. That latter number is completely unsustainable, but he's always been ground ball prone and it appears that he's improved in that area. As stated above, neither the raw stuff, nor his rate stats are what you'd expect from an ace, but he's set up well in all areas of the game. His 2.18 ERA is the fluky result of a .240 BABIP, but the package is real. His xFIP of 3.67 gets a boost from that huge GB rate, but I see a guy who should be able to consistently post ERAs in the 4.00 range provided his stuff holds up.
Kudos to Carrasco and the Indians pitching staff for turning a negative (his diminished curve) into a positive (the plus change). Lemons to lemonade as they say.
Back then I wrote;
"Thankfully to say Carrasco can still reach the mid-90's but operates in the 91-93 range, and his fastball still has plenty of life. If the curve and changeup are still at least league average pitches, anyone with a good enough fastball can have some success, but his secondary pitches, namely his curveball will have to regain it's earlier form for him to ever realize his old potential."
Well, Carrasco is living at the high end of my fastball projections, averaging 93.0 and 93.1 mph on his four seam and two seam fastballs respectively. While his curve still hasn't regained it's old form, Carlos has developed some kind of nasty with his changeup. A pitch that for Carrasco just a year ago was more of an after-thought has become a devastating, fall-off-the-table offering as he's gotten hitters to swing and miss at the pitch nearly on nearly a quarter of his offering.s (23.4%)!
Want to know how bad the bottom of this pitch falls out? Just check out the charts. Jimminy cricket. He doesn't possess what I'd consider plus speed differential (8mph+), but with the way that pitch dies, he doesn't seem to need it. Carrasco is also clearly very confident with the pitch, offering it up 23% of the time.
Carrasco's stuff still doesn't project to a top-of-the-rotation kind of arm, but the development of his changeup, coupled with improved control suggest that he should be a strong long-term option in the middle of the Indians roster for the foreseeable future. Speaking of the control, his release points look really, really solid. If he can maintain that kind of consistency he should be able to maintain his improved control. The last thing you'd like to see would be for him to get on top of his curve a little better. He's getting solid depth on the pitch, but he's still a little too 10-4 with the pitch for my liking.
Looking at the FIP metrics, he's looking solid across the board. He's got slightly above average strikeout and walk rates and he's inducing 68.7% ground balls. That latter number is completely unsustainable, but he's always been ground ball prone and it appears that he's improved in that area. As stated above, neither the raw stuff, nor his rate stats are what you'd expect from an ace, but he's set up well in all areas of the game. His 2.18 ERA is the fluky result of a .240 BABIP, but the package is real. His xFIP of 3.67 gets a boost from that huge GB rate, but I see a guy who should be able to consistently post ERAs in the 4.00 range provided his stuff holds up.
Kudos to Carrasco and the Indians pitching staff for turning a negative (his diminished curve) into a positive (the plus change). Lemons to lemonade as they say.
The Emergence of Chris Sale
The White Sox season has fizzled down the stretch, and after being swept by the Twins to fall nine back, it's officially (unofficially) over. But that doesn't mean they don't have good things to look forward to in 2011. Perhaps the most exciting aspect to 2011 will be the performance of Chris Sale.
Drafted with the 13th overall pick in this years draft, Sale made just 11 relief appearances in the minors before being called up to the big club after striking out 19 in just 10 innings of work. He's got a body scouts love at 6'5" and at a wispy thin 170lbs, projects to fill out and perhaps add a little velocity to an already hot arm.
For now, Sale is essentially a two-pitch guy who works primarily off a fastball that has averaged 95.6mph and a frisbee slider at 81.4mph. The fastball doesn't have much sink, but he does generate good arm-side run. The slider is filthy. He throws it from the same 3/4 arm-slot that he does his fastball and the pitch has fantastic lateral and vertical movement. That, coupled with the speed differential between the slider and his fastball makes it a devastating offering, especially to lefties.
With only those two pitches in his arsenal at the moment, he's not a realistic option for the rotation - at least not yet. But the White Sox are insisting that he will be looked at as a starter in the future - which is good. I'm a big believer that relievers are, for all intents and purposes a dime-a-dozen, but electric arms with plus secondary stuff need to be given every chance to become starters where they can make the largest impact for an organization as possible.
To be an option out of the rotation he's going to need to develop a third pitch. He does throw a changeup, but at this point, it's a complete show-me offering and not a particularly good one at that. Developing that pitch will be vital in the future, because while the slider is great against lefties, righties will eventually key in on it. He'll need the changeup to keep right-handers off balance, and off his relatively flat fastball.
Beyond the raw stuff, the first thing that jumps out to everyone is the phenomenal K rate of 11.57/9IP. However, Sale has also been a ground ball machine, inducing ground balls on 51.4% of his balls in play. The last aspect of his FIP game that needs to be rounded out is his control - which is pretty rough still. That's neither surprising, nor of particular concern, after all the kid is in just his first season of professional baseball.
The White Sox and general manager Kenny Williams are known for promoting and pushing their best prospects aggressively - often bringing them to the Majors despite there being glaring holes in their games. Sale is no different in that regard, he's hardly a finished product. However it would be nice, for once, to see the Sox show the patience necessary to allow such a talented young arm to add some polish to his game. Let him develop his changeup and improve his control in the minors instead of needlessly burning through his arbitration clock with a pitching staff that shouldn't be in any immediate need of his services in 2011.
Drafted with the 13th overall pick in this years draft, Sale made just 11 relief appearances in the minors before being called up to the big club after striking out 19 in just 10 innings of work. He's got a body scouts love at 6'5" and at a wispy thin 170lbs, projects to fill out and perhaps add a little velocity to an already hot arm.
For now, Sale is essentially a two-pitch guy who works primarily off a fastball that has averaged 95.6mph and a frisbee slider at 81.4mph. The fastball doesn't have much sink, but he does generate good arm-side run. The slider is filthy. He throws it from the same 3/4 arm-slot that he does his fastball and the pitch has fantastic lateral and vertical movement. That, coupled with the speed differential between the slider and his fastball makes it a devastating offering, especially to lefties.
With only those two pitches in his arsenal at the moment, he's not a realistic option for the rotation - at least not yet. But the White Sox are insisting that he will be looked at as a starter in the future - which is good. I'm a big believer that relievers are, for all intents and purposes a dime-a-dozen, but electric arms with plus secondary stuff need to be given every chance to become starters where they can make the largest impact for an organization as possible.
To be an option out of the rotation he's going to need to develop a third pitch. He does throw a changeup, but at this point, it's a complete show-me offering and not a particularly good one at that. Developing that pitch will be vital in the future, because while the slider is great against lefties, righties will eventually key in on it. He'll need the changeup to keep right-handers off balance, and off his relatively flat fastball.
Beyond the raw stuff, the first thing that jumps out to everyone is the phenomenal K rate of 11.57/9IP. However, Sale has also been a ground ball machine, inducing ground balls on 51.4% of his balls in play. The last aspect of his FIP game that needs to be rounded out is his control - which is pretty rough still. That's neither surprising, nor of particular concern, after all the kid is in just his first season of professional baseball.
The White Sox and general manager Kenny Williams are known for promoting and pushing their best prospects aggressively - often bringing them to the Majors despite there being glaring holes in their games. Sale is no different in that regard, he's hardly a finished product. However it would be nice, for once, to see the Sox show the patience necessary to allow such a talented young arm to add some polish to his game. Let him develop his changeup and improve his control in the minors instead of needlessly burning through his arbitration clock with a pitching staff that shouldn't be in any immediate need of his services in 2011.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)